Study quantifies ‘hot drought’ impact: 2025 Los Angeles wildfire risk amplified by up to 210%
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How can science improve wildfire diagnosis, early warning, and climate adaptation? This special collection in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences seeks answers on the path to greater resilience.
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As the one-year anniversary of the devastating early January 2025 wildfires in Los Angeles approaches, a pressing question remains: what made these fires, among the most destructive in the region's history, so extreme? New research now provides a quantifiable answer, pinpointing the critical role of combined high temperatures and drought conditions.
Global climate change is intensifying extreme weather events like heatwaves and droughts, which in turn are altering the frequency, intensity, and spatial patterns of wildfires worldwide. In early January 2025, catastrophic wildfires erupted in the Los Angeles region, causing severe societal and environmental impacts. The mechanisms behind their unprecedented ferocity, particularly the contribution of meteorological conditions, have been unclear.
To address this, an international team of scientists from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, and the University of Wisconsin-Madison investigated the fires’ characteristics. They used a Copula-based Bayesian probability framework to quantify how "hot drought" conditions influenced the likelihood of such an event.
Their study, published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, reveals that the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires represent a roughly once-in-67-year event for the region's typical rainy season. The fires were primarily driven by compound hot and dry conditions. The analysis shows that the extreme drought during the fire period increased the probability of wildfires with similar intensity and burned area by 54% and 75%, respectively. When compounded by high temperatures, these probabilities were dramatically amplified further—by 149% for intensity and 210% for burned area.
Beyond hot drought, other factors converged to fuel the disaster. Above-average precipitation in the late winters of 2023 and 2024 promoted abundant vegetation growth. This was followed by an extended period of hot, dry conditions that desiccated this vegetation, creating ample fuel. Additionally, strong, dry Santa Ana winds played a significant role in fire spread. Compared to weak wind conditions, strong winds increased the probability of such severe fires under hot-drought scenarios by 119% for intensity and 387% for burned area.
"Our findings indicate a sharply increasing risk of large, intense wildfires under hot drought conditions, even outside the traditional fire season," said lead author Dr. Feng Ma. "This highlights an urgent need for enhanced attention and adaptive response strategies for year-round wildfire risk in a changing climate."
The research underscores how climate change and variability is creating novel and dangerous fire weather scenarios, extending risk into seasons historically considered less vulnerable.
The research team includes: Feng Ma from Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology; Xing Yuan from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences; and Jason A. Otkin from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
The study is part of an ongoing special collection on the 2025 LA wildfires organized by Advances in Atmospheric Sciences . The collection is dedicated to advancing the science of wildfire diagnosis, early warning, and climate services, and is actively inviting further submissions.
Journal
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
Article Title
Hot Drought Increased the Occurrence Probability of the 2025 Los Angeles Destructive Wildfires
Article Publication Date
20-Dec-2025
American Meteorological Society announces Rick Spinrad as 2026 President-Elect
Marilyn Averill, Julie Demuth, Jordan Gerth, Maureen McCann, and Aaron Piña will serve on the AMS Council beginning in 2026
American Meteorological Society
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American Meteorological Society logo
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Members of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), the professional society for weather, water, and climate sciences and services, have elected Richard (Rick) Spinrad to the position of AMS president-elect for 2026, as well as electing five new council members.
Spinrad, an oceanographer, formerly served as U.S. Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and the 11th administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). He will be inducted as president-elect on Sunday, 25 January, 2026, during the AMS’s 106th Annual Meeting in Houston, Texas.
The five newly elected AMS Council Members are Marilyn Averill, Julie Demuth, Jordan Gerth, Maureen McCann, and Aaron Piña. They will begin their council terms in 2026.
“I am deeply humbled by the honor of being elected AMS President-Elect,” says Spinrad. “Standing on the shoulders of my predecessors, many of whom I have had the pleasure to call colleagues and mentors (even as they tolerated an oceanographer in their midst!), I get a profound sense of the challenges and opportunities we face as a professional community. For three decades I have looked to AMS as a forum for scientific leadership, policy advice, and professional development. Now more than ever, the extraordinary collection of students, researchers, service providers, policy makers, entrepreneurs, and educators (as well as many others) who make AMS such a successful enterprise will be called upon to advance our understanding of Earth systems, and advocate for the continued growth of knowledge. I look forward to serving the Society and following the past model of leadership while making AMS an even more essential element of our professional community.”
Spinrad will serve a one-year term as president-elect, then serve as president of the AMS beginning at the 2027 Annual Meeting.
Learn about current AMS Leadership and recently elected leaders.
About Rick Spinrad
Richard (Rick) W. Spinrad, PhD, is an oceanographer with more than 40 years of experience in the public, private, academic, and non-profit sectors. He served from 2021 to 2025 as the United States’ Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and the 11th Administrator of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrator). An elected member of the U.S. National Academy of Engineering, he is currently a professor emeritus of oceanography at Oregon State University (OSU), where he previously served as vice president for research.
Dr. Spinrad served as NOAA’s chief scientist and led NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and National Ocean Service. He also co-led the White House Committee that developed the nation’s first set of ocean research priorities. As program manager at the Office of Naval Research and senior civilian at the Office of the Oceanographer of the Navy, he was awarded the U.S. Navy Distinguished Civilian Service Award. He has held faculty appointments at OSU, the U.S. Naval Academy, and George Mason University; was Executive Director at the Consortium for Oceanographic Research and Education; was President of Sea Tech, Inc.; and worked as a research scientist at the Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences. Dr. Spinrad served as the U.S. permanent representative to the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission. He is the recipient of Presidential Rank Awards from presidents George W. Bush and Barack H. Obama.
Dr. Spinrad received his B.A. from The Johns Hopkins University, and his M.S. and PhD from Oregon State University. Read full bio.
About New AMS Councilors
The AMS Council is the Society’s principal governing body, and consists of the current AMS president, AMS president-elect, and the last two past presidents; the AMS executive director, the AMS secretary, and the AMS treasurer (who are non-voting members); and 15 other voting members of the Society, each elected for a three-year term, with one-third retiring each year. Each year, four councilors are elected to represent the academic sector, the private sector, and the government sector, with a fifth councilor appointed by AMS Council. The new councilors are (in alphabetical order):
MARILYN AVERILL
Marilyn Averill, JD, MPA, is a retired environmental attorney and a senior fellow with the Getches-Wilkinson Center for Natural Resources, Energy, and the Environment at the University of Colorado Law School.
JULIE DEMUTH
Julie L. Demuth, PhD, is a project scientist IV in the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology (MMM) Lab and the lead of the Convergence Science Program at the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
JORDAN J. GERTH
Jordan J. Gerth, PhD, is chief of the Architecture Planning and System Innovation branch at the NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) Office of Systems Architecture and Engineering (SAE).
MAUREEN MCCANN
Maureen R. McCann is a broadcast meteorologist at Spectrum News 13 in Orlando, Florida.
AARON PIÑA
Aaron J. Piña, PhD, is the National Program Leader for Atmospheric Sciences and Fire Weather Research at the USDA Forest Service.
All bios and candidate statements for recently elected AMS leaders can be found on the AMS Election Information page.
About the American Meteorological Society
The American Meteorological Society advances the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society. Founded in 1919, AMS has a membership of more than 12,000 professionals, students, and weather enthusiasts. AMS publishes 12 atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic science journals—in print and online; sponsors multiple scientific specialty conferences annually; and offers numerous programs and services. Visit us at https://www.ametsoc.org/.
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