WAIT, WHAT?

White House Vows to Avoid Future Sanctions on Russian Crude Oil

Jennifer A. Dlouhy and Ari Natter
Fri, February 25, 2022

(Bloomberg) -- The Biden administration won’t sanction Russian crude oil because that would harm U.S. consumers and not Vladimir Putin, a U.S. State Department official said Friday.

“The sanctions will not target the oil flows as we go forward,” Amos Hochstein, the State Department’s senior energy security adviser, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

The remarks underscore the Biden administration’s approach to sanctions that are intended to maximize pain for the Russian president while minimizing the blowback for U.S. and European consumers.

“If we target the oil and gas sector for Putin, and in this case the Russian energy establishment, then prices would spike. Perhaps he would sell only half of his product, but for double the price,” Hochstein said. “That means he would not suffer the consequences while the United States and our allies would suffer the consequences.”

Oil prices have already eased in response, Hochstein said, and the administration “can see prices go down from here.”

Oil prices topped $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 following Russia’s invasion on Ukraine on fears that the move would lead to harsher sanctions from the West. But those gains were mostly erased after Biden’s package of initial sanctions avoided the energy sector. On Friday, West Texas Intermediate slipped $1.10 to $91.71 a barrel while Brent crude dropped $1.69 to $97.39 a barrel at 10:05 a.m. in New York.

President Joe Biden and his Democratic Party already face political risks from record inflation that has spiked the costs of consumer goods from food to fuel. Last year, Biden authorized the release of 50 million barrels of crude from the U.S. emergency stockpile, and on Thursday the he pledged to discharge more of those supplies if needed.

Hochstein called the sanctions “significantly harder and harsher” than anything previously aimed at Putin, and said that they also have more international support.

He credited the administration’s efforts to persuade natural gas exporters and Asian allies to divert gas exports to Europe. That prevented Putin from timing “the invasion with rolling blackouts or economic distress in Europe,” Hochstein said. “And there’s enough natural gas supplies to get through the winter.”

Russian gas flows to Europe through Ukraine reportedly jumped nearly 40% on Thursday, underscoring the continent's dependence on Putin's energy

Kate Duffy

Fri, February 25, 2022,

Russian President Vladimir Putin.Alexey Nikolsky/Getty Images

• Russian gas exports to Europe via Ukraine spiked nearly 38% Thursday, Bloomberg reported.

• European natural-gas prices soared as much as 62% on the same day.

• Germany this week pulled out of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project with Russia.

Natural-gas exports flowing from Russia to Europe through Ukraine ramped up on Thursday, jumping by nearly 38% from a day earlier, according to data reported by Bloomberg.

Figures from Ukraine's grid operator further showed that these flows were expected to rise by about 24% on Friday compared with Thursday's levels, according to Bloomberg.

Western Europe is heavily reliant on Russian gas supplies, and the increased flow Thursday underscored that continuing dependency. Some 41% of the European Union's gas imports come from Russia, more than twice as much as Norway, the next-largest supplier, according to the most recent EU data.

The increased gas flows from Russia to Europe on Thursday came after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into Ukraine. World governments hit Russia with sanctions in response, but the US defended a decision not to include the energy sector in its measures.

The Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom said Thursday that gas flows to Europe through Ukraine were as expected.

European gas prices soared as much as 62% on Thursday, the largest increase since 2005, according to data reported by Bloomberg.

Russia is the world's second-largest producer of natural gas, behind the US, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Earlier in the week, Germany, which relies on Russia for much of its natural gas, halted the Nord Stream 2 gas-pipeline deal with Moscow after Russian forces entered Donetsk and Luhansk, two eastern breakaway regions of Ukraine. The suspension of Nord Stream 2 had no impact on gas supplies because the pipeline wasn't operational.

Kenneth Griffin, the CEO of the hedge fund Citadel, wrote in The Wall Street Journal that Europe should reduce its reliance on Russian gas exports and the US should help the continent meet its energy needs by increasing oil production.

Biden Team to Hold Off on Sanctions Hitting Aluminum From Russia



Joe Deaux and Saleha Mohsin
Thu, February 24, 2022,

(Bloomberg) -- The Biden administration is holding off for now on sanctions against Russia that could disrupt global aluminum supplies, according to people familiar with the matter, as the market grapples with already severe shortages of the metal.

White House officials met with industry representatives in recent weeks and told them there was no U.S. intention for now of levying sanctions that would hit Russian aluminum, the people said, asking not to be named because the discussions weren’t public. Benchmark aluminum prices in London retreated from record highs after Bloomberg News reported the discussions.

Russian-supplied aluminum accounts for about 10% of total U.S. imports, highlighting the negative impact that sanctions could have for the U.S. and allies who rely on the metal for everything from iPhones to automobiles and fighter jets.

A spokeswoman for the White House National Security Council declined to comment.

Aluminum prices have surged more than 55% in the past year as plants across the globe tried to ramp up production to meet demand spurred by the reopening of economies from the pandemic. Benchmark prices hit a record on Thursday as Russia began armed conflict in Ukraine. The global market swung to a 1.9 million ton deficit last year, according to the World Bureau of Metals Statistics.

The supply situation hasn’t gotten any better as surging energy prices in Europe forced mills to shut down, while efforts by top producer China to curb its pollution led to output cuts. Almost four years ago, the U.S. levied sanctions on Russian aluminum producer United Co. Rusal International PJSC that sent prices surging and left buyers scrambling to find units.

Aluminum for delivery in three months fell 0.5% Friday to $3,378.50 a metric ton as of 11:18 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange. Prices jumped as much as 5.7% to a record $3,480 on Thursday before paring gains. Nickel -- with Russia also a major producer -- fell 2% to trade below its Wednesday close ahead of Russia’s invasion.

U.S. officials had previously disclosed concern that sanctions impacting aluminum supply could drive up the price of the metal, replicating chaos in the commodities market when the Trump administration in 2018 sanctioned Russian business tycoon Oleg Deripaska. Deripaska’s En+ Management LLC has a majority stake in Rusal, the world’s second-largest aluminum producer.

While sanctions were never ultimately implemented on Rusal due to repeated waivers from the U.S. Treasury Department, global aluminum prices shot up as much as 20% at one point, with each delay in imposing the sanctions causing more turbulence.

Russia is also a major exporter of oil, natural gas, wheat, crop nutrients and other metals.

What the Russian media is saying 

about the war in Ukraine

Alexander Nazaryan

·Senior White House Correspondent

Sat, February 26, 2022, 

WASHINGTON — As the invasion of Ukraine continued on Friday morning, including near the capital city, Kyiv, one of Russia’s leading television stations aired a history lesson on an 18th century battle between German and Russian forces in Poland.

It was the kind of nationalistic propaganda typical of media coverage in a nation where the Kremlin exercises near-universal control. That control is evident in print, radio and television. However, it also appears to be slipping, which could present Russian President Vladimir Putin with a fresh challenge as he faces domestic and international opprobrium for his attack on Ukraine.

“The Kremlin is clearly grappling with ways to keep the cracks in that dam from forming,” said Gavin Wilde, an expert on Russia who formerly served on the National Security Council. Those cracks have come mostly in the form of internet outlets. "China was able to seal off its so-called sovereign information space in a way that Russia simply failed to do.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin at a meeting with members of Russian business community in the Kremlin. (Alexei Nikolsky/Tass via Getty Images)

Lacking a firewall like the one erected by Beijing, Putin and his propagandists can do only so much to keep reality from smartphone and laptop screens — which makes his control of traditional outlets all the more urgent.

“Control of classic media is already pretty complete,” Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs told Yahoo News. “It is hard to find truth about the war there.”

On the radio station Komsomolskaya Pravda — its very name an unabashed reminder of Soviet propaganda, since it means "Young Communist League Truth"— a host on a Thursday evening program amplified anti-Ukrainian sentiments. He seemed to suggest that the sympathies of the Russian people lay entirely with Putin, who has claimed his invasion has been necessary to “demilitarize” and “de-Nazify” Ukraine.

“We need to take Kyiv — the sooner the better,” one Komsomolskaya Pravda listener said in an email the host read on air with the somber tone of an endorsement. Meanwhile, the host on another Moscow-based radio talk show promised that once Russia occupied the country, right-wing Ukrainian nationalists — whose influence Russia has vastly exaggerated in an effort to justify war — would be “sorted out.”

Rousing history lessons about World War II and vituperative attacks on Ukraine and its Western allies have filled Russian media in recent days, as the Kremlin resorted to tactics it uses whenever it needs to convince the Russian populace — and quell any dissent. But the antiwar protests that have broken out in St. Petersburg and Moscow, as well as many smaller cities, are evidence that even media highly biased toward Putin cannot bend the narrative in his favor.

Demonstrators march with a banner that reads: "Ukraine — peace, Russia — freedom," in Moscow on Thursday, after Russia's attack on Ukraine. (Dmitry Serebryakov/AP Photo)

Dozens of leading Russian journalists have signed an open letter denouncing a war. “War never was and never will be a means of resolving conflict,” the letter says. In a country where 58 journalists have been assassinated since 1992, mostly for holding opposition views, putting one’s name on such a condemnation amounts to an act of personal and professional courage.

The Russian people “don’t want a war,” Ukrainian-American foreign policy expert Olga Lautman of the Center for European Policy Analysis told Yahoo News in an interview, as she watched the protests in Russia from New York. She described the Russian populace as weary with the coronavirus, suggesting that Putin simply does not have the popular support he enjoyed when he first invaded Ukraine eight years ago, seizing two eastern regions and the peninsula of Crimea.

"It's not that nationalistic feel from 2014," Lautman said, as Western TV outlets broadcast footage of young Russians crowding the streets of the nation’s two biggest cities, chanting antiwar slogans.

As during the Soviet era, Russian media is effectively a branch of the Kremlin tasked with carrying out its imperatives.

“They’re not independent, and aren’t there to hold government accountable,” Peter Adams of the News Literacy Project told Yahoo News in an interview. Adams, who has tracked Russian media, described outlets there as trying to “maintain the barest semblance of fairness and independence” while avoiding pointed criticism of the Kremlin.

As if to underscore that very point, a Russian media regulatory body known as Roskomnadzor told outlets that they are “required to use information received exclusively from official Russian sources” on the military operations in Ukraine. Violating that order could result in a $60,000 fine.

Many outlets don’t need the reminder. On the television network Rossiya 1, grim-faced pundits lashed out at the Ukrainian “morons” whom the network blamed for starting the conflict, ignoring the fact that it was Putin who pushed Eastern Europe into war.

Veterans of the Ukrainian National Guard Azov Battalion conduct military exercises for civilians in Kyiv on Feb. 6. (Gleb Garanich/Reuters)

In an act of classic Soviet script-flipping, they depicted Russian aggression as having been instigated by reactionary elements in Ukraine like the Azov Battalion, a troubling but small nationalistic outfit that has been controversially embraced by the military establishment.

A correspondent in Donetsk, one of the two eastern border provinces now under Russian control, described the ethnic Russian residents there as welcoming the assault because of the supposed oppression they had been facing from Ukrainians. “Now they have confidence in the future and that the years-long war will finally come to an end,” the correspondent said.

There would never have been a war if Russia had not invaded a sovereign nation whose own president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has pleaded emotionally for peace. Some believe that Putin miscalculated in launching the invasion, a view seemingly supported by the scale of protests that broke out on Thursday.

Ukrainian forces — which have been bolstered by American and Western European matériel — have thus far put up a determined resistance, depriving Putin of an easy victory and raising the possibility of a much more protracted conflict than he had anticipated.

"I don’t think the Russians really reckoned with how fierce of a fight they were going to get from Ukraine," said Michael Weiss, an expert on Russia who is writing a book on the nation’s intelligence services. Now news outlets are essentially forced to sell a war many of them did not expect, Weiss told Yahoo News, against a neighbor who shares a similar culture and history — but is also proudly independent.

"This is Slav on Slav,” Weiss said. “Russians don't want to see Kyiv on fire.”

Police officers detain a demonstrator in Moscow on Thursday during a protest against Russia's invasion of Ukraine. (Alexander Nemenov/AFP via Getty Images)

Media outlets have resorted to showing the displacement of refugees from the Russia-controlled regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, which had been part of Ukraine until pro-Russian separatist forces with Kremlin backing seized them in 2014. Earlier this week, Putin sent “peacekeeping” forces there, triggering a first round of sanctions from the United States and signaling the beginning of what has been an ever-widening conflict.

Meanwhile, the extent to which mainstream Ukrainian society has harbored nationalist and outright Nazi elements has been greatly exaggerated. “Kremlin emphasized need to liberate Ukraine from neo-Nazis,” went a Thursday headline from Tass, the official Russian news agency, which dutifully proffered the narrative without proper context.

“The art of their propaganda is often in the framing,” Adams of the News Literacy Project told Yahoo News.

Ukraine does have a legacy of nationalism and antisemitism, as well as other forms of intolerance, but so do many other nations that Russia has not invaded. And Zelensky, the democratically elected Ukrainian president, is Jewish.

Russian media has also reported on its own journalists allegedly being shot at in Donetsk. It is difficult to know if those reports are true, but they stand in stark contrast to the acquiescence that has accompanied two decades in which journalists critical of the Kremlin have been hounded, jailed and sometimes murdered.

An independent media existed when Putin came to power two decades ago, but he has steadily closed off most avenues of dissent, creating a flattened media ecosystem whose contours he has shaped almost entirely on his own (with help from pro-Kremlin oligarchs eager to stay in his good graces).

Still, not even an authoritarian leader can entirely shape reality, or how people respond. Given the scope of protests across Russia on Thursday, it was inevitable that even some mainstream outlets would acknowledge basic facts about what the Kremlin was doing.

Perhaps the starkest of those acknowledgments appeared on the front page of Novaya Gazeta, a left-leaning newspaper, on Friday. “Russia. Bombs. Ukraine,” a towering headline said.

'Russia strikes Ukraine': Front covers of newspapers around the world after Russian forces invade Ukraine
Elisabetta Bianchini
Thu, February 24, 2022

Newspaper Coverage of Russian Forces Invading Ukraine

"Russia attacks as Putin warns world; Biden vows to hold him accountable" - The New York Times

Russian troops launched an attack on Ukraine on Thursday, with explosions and setting off air raid sirens in Kyiv, among other cities, causing residents to flee.

"As of today, our countries are on different sides of world history," a statement from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky posted on Twitter reads. "[Russia] has embarked on a path of evil, but [Ukraine] is defending itself and won't give up its freedom no matter what Moscow thinks."

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau condemned Russia's attack on Ukraine, saying the Ukrainians woke up to "the brutal, terrifying reality of war" in the "greatest threat to European stability since World War II."

"Make no mistake, Russia’s attack on Ukraine is also an attack on democracy, on international law, on human rights and on freedom," Trudeau said. "Democracies and democratic leader everywhere must come together to defend these principals and stand firmly against authoritarianism."

"Russia must immediately cease all hostile actions against Ukraine and withdraw all military and proxy forces from the country."

In a public addrss, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that countries that interfere is Russia's actions will result in "consequences they have never seen."

CYBERWAR

Russia-based ransomware group Conti issues warning to Kremlin foes


The Russian Embassy, as President Biden announces new sanctions on Russia, in Washington

Fri, February 25, 2022
By Christopher Bing

(Reuters) - A Russia-based cybercrime group, known for using ransomware to extort millions of dollars from U.S. and European companies, vowed on Friday to attack enemies of the Kremlin if they respond to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

In a blog post, the Conti group said it was announcing its "full support" for the government of President Vladimir Putin. On Thursday, the Russian military invaded neighboring Ukraine from the north, east and south, in the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two.

"If anybody will decide to organize a cyberattack or any war activities against Russia, we are going to use our all possible resources to strike back at the critical infrastructures of an enemy," the Conti blog post read.

Ukraine has been hammered by digital intrusions and denial-of-service attacks both in the run-up to and during the Russian invasion.

Reuters reported on Thursday that the Ukrainian government has called for volunteers from country's hacker underground to help protect critical infrastructure and cyber-spy on Russian troops.

"A portion of actors involved with Conti ransomware are based in Russia and some criminals operating from there already have documented ties with Russian intelligence apparatus," said Kimberly Goody, a director with U.S. cybersecurity company Mandiant.

She said the Kremlin had benefited in the past from its relationships with cyber criminals, "and even if not outright directed to take action, these actors could conduct 'patriotic' operations independently."

Brett Callow, a threat analyst at New Zealand-based cybersecurity company Emsisoft, noted that Conti has made "big and outrageous" claims before. But he recommended U.S. companies keep a close eye on their cyber defenses as cyberattacks in Ukraine could spill out abroad.

First detected in 2019, Conti has since been blamed for ransomware attacks against numerous U.S. and European companies.

In those incidents, Conti hackers invaded networks and encrypted data, disrupting operations and demanding payment to restore access. Among the victims were a federal court in Louisiana and a New Mexico hospital, according to research https://blog.emsisoft.com/en/37866/ransomware-profile-conti by Emsisoft.

In May, the FBI said Conti was responsible for attacks on 16 U.S. medical and first response networks, Reuters previously reported.

(Reporting by Christopher Bing; Editing by Daniel Wallis)

Turkey says it cannot stop returning Russian warships from accessing Black Sea


Russian Navy's diesel-electric submarine Rostov-on-Don sets sail in Istanbul's Bosphorus

Fri, February 25, 2022

ANKARA (Reuters) -Turkey cannot stop Russian warships accessing the Black Sea via its straits, as Ukraine has requested, due to a clause in an international pact that allows vessels to return to their home base, the Turkish foreign minister said on Friday.

Ukraine has appealed to Turkey to block Russian warships from passing through the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits which lead to the Black Sea, after Moscow on Thursday launched a full-blown assault on Ukraine from land, air and sea.

Russian forces landed at Ukraine's Black and Azov Sea ports as part of the invasion.

Under the 1936 Montreux Convention, Turkey has control over the straits and can limit the passage of warships during wartime or if threatened, but the request has put the NATO member in a difficult position as it tries to manage its Western commitments and close ties with Russia.

Speaking in Kazakhstan, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Turkey was studying Kyiv's request but said Russia had the right under the Convention to return ships to their home base, in this case the Black Sea.

So even if Turkey decided after a legal process to accept Ukraine's request and close the straits to Russian warships, he said, they would only be prevented from travelling in the other direction, away from their home base into the Mediterranean.

"If countries involved in the war make a request to return their vessels to their bases, that needs to be allowed," the Hurriyet daily quoted Cavusoglu as saying.

TURKEY'S BALANCING ACT

Cavusoglu added that Turkish legal experts were still trying to determine whether the conflict in Ukraine could be defined as a war, which would allow the convention mandates to be invoked.

Ukraine's ambassador to Turkey, Vasyl Bodnar, said on Friday Kyiv was expecting a "positive response" from Ankara to its request.

Cavusoglu also reiterated Ankara's opposition to imposing economic sanctions against Russia, a stance that has set Turkey apart from most of its NATO allies which have already announced such measures.

President Tayyip Erdogan later said that reaction from NATO and Western countries to Russia's assault had not been decisive, adding he hoped a virtual NATO summit on Friday would lead to a more determined approach from the alliance.

Turkey has cultivated good ties with both Russia and Ukraine. It has said the Russian attack is unacceptable and that it supports Ukraine's territorial integrity but has avoided using words such as "invasion" to describe what is happening.

Ankara has pursued cooperation with Moscow on defence and energy but has also sold drones to Ukraine and inked a deal to co-produce more. It also opposes Russian policies in Syria and Libya, as well as its annexation of Crimea in 2014.

(Reporting by Tuvan Gumrukcu; Editing by Gareth Jones and Catherine Evans)

Chernobyl's Radiation Spiked 20 Times Above Usual Levels as Russian Forces Arrive

BEN TURNER, LIVE SCIENCE
25 FEBRUARY 2022

The Chernobyl nuclear power plant and its surrounding area are showing increased radiation levels after heavy fighting between Ukrainian and Russian troops in the region, Ukrainian officials said Friday (Feb. 25)

Online data from the Chernobyl exclusion zone's automated radiation-monitoring system shows that gamma radiation has increased 20 times above usual levels at multiple observation points, which officials from the Ukrainian nuclear agency attributed to radioactive dust thrown up by the movement of heavy military equipment in the area.

The defunct Chernobyl nuclear power plant has been under occupation by attacking Russian soldiers since Thursday (Feb. 24) after Russian president Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in the early hours of the morning.

Workers at the facility, stationed there to monitor and maintain radiation levels within safe bounds, have been taken hostage by Russian troops, according to Anna Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military expert.

"The station staff is being held hostage. This threatens the security of not only Ukraine but also a significant part of Europe," Kovalenko wrote on Facebook.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a news briefing on Thursday (Feb. 24) that the Biden administration was "outraged" by reports of Russian troops holding Chernobyl plant staff against their will and demanded their release.

She warned that the action "could upend the routine civil service efforts required to maintain and protect the nuclear waste facilities."

As one of the most radioactive places in the world, large parts of the Chernobyl exclusion zone have been closed off since the disastrous meltdown of Ukraine's Chernobyl nuclear power plant in 1986.

In that year, two enormous explosions inside the plant's reactor flipped its 2,000-ton (1,800 metric tons) lid like a coin, blanketing the surrounding 1,000-square-mile (2,600 square kilometers) with radioactive dust and reactor chunks.

Following evacuation and the dousing of the nuclear fire – which cost many firefighters their lives – the reactor was sealed off and the area deemed uninhabitable by humans for the next 24,000 years.

Heavy fighting around the plant on Thursday (Feb. 24) led to concerns that stray munitions could accidentally pierce the exploded reactor's two layers of protection – consisting of a new, outer safe-confinement structure and an inner concrete sarcophagus – and release the deadly radioactive fallout trapped inside.

In a contradictory statement, Igor Konashenkov, the spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry, said that radiation around the plant was within normal levels and that Russian forces were working with the facilities' staff to ensure the area's safety.

Oleksiy Arestovych, an advisor to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, believes that the Chernobyl site was seized as part of a "possible blackmail" tactic against the West.

"Chernobyl has been seized and I think they will blackmail the West. The President's Office is preparing a response to possible blackmail through Chernobyl," Arestovych said in a statement.

The site, which is just 60 miles (97 km) north of the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, lies on a direct invasion route between Kyiv and the Russian forces' northern entry point to Ukraine at the Belarusian border.

Claire Corkhill, a professor of nuclear material degradation at the University of Sheffield in the UK, wrote on Twitter that the gamma radiation around the Chernoybl plant "looks to have increased by around 20 times compared with a few days ago."

However, caution should be taken "not to over-interpret at this stage," she said.

"This appears to be based on a single data point," Corkhill added in a separate tweet. "What is intriguing is that the level of radiation has increased mostly around the main routes in and out of the Chernobyl exclusion zone, as well as the reactor. This would tend to suggest that increased movement of people or vehicles may have disturbed radioactive dust."

The highly radioactive fuel inside the Chernobyl reactor is buried deep beneath the defunct plant and is unlikely to be released unless the reactor is directly targeted, Corkhill said.

Fighting around the plant was just a small part of a much wider ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, the biggest on a European nation since World War II.

As Russian forces close in on Kyiv, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense wrote on its Twitter page, urging citizens to stay at home, inform the Ukrainian military about the movements of Russian military equipment, and make Molotov cocktails in preparation for urban warfare.

Related content:

Images: Chernobyl, frozen in time

10 times HBO's 'Chernobyl' got the science wrong

Chernobyl nuclear disaster 25 years later (Infographic)

This article was originally published by Live Science. Read the original article here.

Chernobyl: Why did Russian troops take control of infamous nuclear disaster site?

Graeme Massie and Zoe Tidman
Fri, February 25, 2022

It is the site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster, and now Ukrainian officials say that the area surrounding the Chernobyl nuclear reactor is under Russian control.

The reactor at Chernobyl infamously melted down in April 1986 during a test, covering much of Europe in a radioactive cloud.

At that time, Ukraine remained a part of the Soviet Union, and to this day a highly protected 20-mile exclusion zone had existed around the site, which entombs a highly dangerous amount of nuclear material.

So why would Vladimir Putin have prioritised it for capture and control by his advancing troops?

Tracey German, a professor in conflict and security at the King’s Russia Institute, told The Independent this could be down to the site’s location.

“It lies on a direct route from Belarus down to Kyiv and would therefore be passed by Russian forces invading from the north,” she said. “If it wasn’t in this location, I don’t think Russian forces would be looking to secure it.”

The defunct nuclear site is situated in northern Ukraine just several miles inside the border and around 80 miles north of the embattled country’s capital.

“Chernobyl is the shortest route from Russia to Kyiv. The facility is not the goal,” tweeted CNN analyst and national security expert Juliette Kayyem.

Ukraine observers also say that Chernobyl sits on the western side of the Pripyat river, which merges with the Dneiper river just north of Kiev. The site therefore becomes strategically important for the western flank of Russian troops if they eventually circle the city.

Dr Ross Peel, a researcher at the Department of War Studies at King’s College London’s also suggested the threat posed by war could also play a role.

“I’d suggest the main motivation is they want to get the site secured. It’s not generating power at all and has no value that I can think of – I think the main motivation is they want to keep it safe from anything that might breach it,” he told The Independent.

“Prolonged fighting in the area only creates danger of the containment being breached and radiation escaping, so they want to prevent anything happening to it.”

But Ukraine’s nuclear agency and interior ministry said on Friday they were recording increased radiation levels from the site of the defunct nuclear power plant.

Experts at the state nuclear agency said the change was due to the movement of heavy military equipment in the area lifting radioactive dust into the air.

“It is not critical for Kyiv for the time being, but we are monitoring,” the interior ministry said.

Other observers have said that Russia wanted to gain control of the Chernobyl power substation, which provides energy to Belarus and parts of western Russia.

Shane Partlow, who used to work at the US embassy in Kyiv, said this could be the purpose of holding the Chernobyl area, as the substation was “critical to electrical supply in the region, including Belarus and Russia”.

White House is 'outraged' over reports that staff at Chernobyl have been taken hostage by Russian forces

Kelsey Vlamis
Thu, February 24, 2022

Ukrainian servicemen take part in a joint tactical and special

 exercises in a ghost city of Pripyat, near Chernobyl Nuclear 

Power Plant on February 4, 2022.

Sergei Supinsky/AFP/Getty Images

Russian forces took over the Chernobyl nuclear plant in Ukraine on Thursday.

Press secretary Jen Psaki called reports the plant's staff was taken hostage "incredibly alarming."

It's unclear how the Russian takeover will affect efforts to maintain radioactivity at the site.

Press secretary Jen Psaki said the White House is outraged over reports from Ukrainian officials that staff at the Chernobyl nuclear plant in Ukraine have been taken hostage by Russian troops.

Russian forces took over the remnants of Chernobyl earlier on Thursday during the country's invasion of Ukraine. The move indicated Russia is likely to assault Ukraine's capital city, Kyiv, which is located just south of Chernobyl, the site of one of the worst nuclear disasters in history.

"We're outraged by credible reports that Russian soldiers are currently holding the staff of the Chernobyl facility hostage," Psaki said during a press briefing on Thursday afternoon, adding "we condemn it and we request their release."


Psaki said the situation at Chernobyl was not clear but that the hostage taking was "incredibly alarming and greatly concerning," adding it could hurt efforts to maintain the facility, which is dangerously contaminated with radioactivity as a result of the 1986 nuclear disaster.

Earlier on Thursday, an adviser to the head of the plant said: "After a fierce battle, Ukrainian control over the Chernobyl site was lost. The condition of the former Chernobyl nuclear power plant, confinement, and nuclear waste storage facilities is unknown."

Russia's takeover sparked concerns that it would jeopardize the decades-long efforts to contain the nuclear disaster, including a billion-dollar investment in a containment dome in 2016. It's unclear how the dome would hold up to combat damage, Insider's Brent D. Griffiths reported.

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for CHERNOBYL 

POSTMODERN PARIS COMMUNE
Kyiv's ragtag volunteer force fights stealth invader

DEFENDING THEIR BOURGEOIS REVOLUTION




Bob, the nom de guerre of a Kyiv volunteer unit, admits 'we have a very strong enemy in front of us' (AFP/Daniel LEAL)

Dmitry ZAKS
Fri, February 25, 2022,

Ukrainian historian Yuriy Korchemniy has never fired an assault rifle in his life.

But he joined scores of others and picked up a Kalashnikov when boxes of them were dumped from trucks and handed out to Ukraine's new volunteer defence units on day two of Russia's invasion.

"They gave out the rifles, loaded them for us and here we are," the 35-year-old said with a slightly sheepish grin.


The Kyiv bridge underpass he was guarding with a handful of other men -- some in their 50s -- leads to Western-backed President Volodymyr Zelensky's administrative complex.

The reverse side of the road runs through a working-class district of Soviet-style tower blocks that witnessed a deadly shootout with a small group of Russian forces only a few hours earlier.

An AFP team saw a middle-aged civilian who was killed in the clash carried away by ambulance workers.

One witness said the civilian was cut down by bullets fired by the Russians from a speeding armoured vehicle.

Korchemniy seemed slightly uncertain about his role in defending the Ukrainian capital against Russian President Vladimir Putin's invading forces.

"I only know how to shoot single rounds, so my plan is to click this here and switch off the automatic mode," he said, cautiously patting the shiny weapon.

A surreal sense of fighting ghosts has descended on this once-bustling city of three million people.

Live: Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian cities; intense fighting in Kyiv

- Fighting ghosts -

Sirens wail and thudding booms crash across swathes of Kyiv at random hours.

The deserted streets are distinguished by pockets of nervous-looking soldiers and oddly relaxed volunteers shuffling from foot to foot and smoking.

Pedestrians who venture out look almost oblivious to the danger.

Some are glued to their phone screens and one couple was spotted jogging with their puppy.

But the Russians -- their advance toward the city's gates confirmed by the distant blasts and empty bullet casings scattered on intersections -- are nowhere to be seen.

A masked volunteer unit commander who goes by the nom de guerre "Bob" admitted he had no idea where the Russians go after attacking.

"I don't know," the commander said. "I have one man injured. This street was hit with bullets -- and not the ordinary bullets like in my machine gun. We have smaller bullets. The Russians use much bigger bullets."

Ukraine's once-dilapidated armed forces have been beefed up by years of steady Western assistance and an urgent flurry of arms shipments aimed at deterring Putin.

But they remain an over-stretched and out-gunned force.

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- 'Try our best' -

Government troops had focused for eight years on fighting Russian-backed insurgents on a frozen frontline in the east -- then Putin invaded from three directions at once.

This forced Ukraine to scramble to send reinforcements to the northern frontier by Belarus and the southern one by Kremlin-annexed Crimea.

The military then urged anyone between the age of 18 and 60 to pick up a gun and get ready to fight.

Paragliding instructor Roman Bondertsev said he heeded the call "because it's better than being at home doing nothing. This way I am less afraid".

"And if I get shot, there will be two people ready to come take my weapon and take my place," the 47-year-old said.

The extreme sports coach was better able to contain his anger at the Russian invasion than mechanic Ruslan Bitsman.

"I've never served," Bitsman admitted.

"But it's my country -- my country, you understand. You ask what I think about Putin? Only unprintable things."

Yet both men admitted facing difficult odds keeping the Russians from blowing past their positions.

"I only took a weapon in my hands for the first time yesterday. What can you do? We will try our best," Bondertsev said.

From the elderly to boxing legends, Ukraine is showing world what resistance means

Dan Wetzel
SPORTS·Columnist
Fri, February 25, 2022

Last month, Valentyna Kostyantynovska heard the building drumbeat toward Russia's invasion of Ukraine and decided to join the defense forces. She figured that the only way her homeland stood a chance against such overwhelming force was if everyone chipped in.

And by everyone, she meant everyone.

Even someone such as herself, a 79-year-old from Mariupol, located along the Sea of Azov which is connected to the Black Sea.

“I cannot do much,” Kostyantynovska told Reuters. “I can help the wounded. …I know they will kill me. And so it should be, so less young people would die.”

On a small island in the Black Sea this week, 13 Ukrainian soldiers, staring down the Russian Navy and with the choice of death or surrender, reportedly barked into a radio, “Russian warship, go f*** yourself.” They were soon killed, Ukrainian government officials said.

In Kyiv, two multimillionaire former heavyweight boxing champions, Vitali and Wladimir Klitschko, each with the fame and resources to have long ago fled to safety, remained, vowing to take up arms and fight the Russians in the streets no matter the consequences. As high-profile targets, their fate may be sealed.

“I don’t have another choice,” Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Kyiv and the son of a former general in the old Soviet Air Force, told “Good Morning Britain.”

“I have to do that.”

Heavyweight boxing champion, turned Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko, talks with AFP journalists at his office in Kyiv on Feb. 10. Klitschko said he was ready "to take up arms" defending Ukraine against a feared Russian invasion. 

(Photo by SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP via Getty Images)

As recently as a week ago, many Americans knew little to nothing about Ukraine or the Ukrainian people. Many wouldn’t have been able to find it on a map, just another jigsaw piece among the geography of Eastern Europe.

There were the Klitschkos, a few NHL and NBA players, a couple actresses and lots of murky political scandals that would occasionally put the country in the news, but with little context.

Few, however, understood who these people are, what this country believes in and the measure of the courage available to defend against an overwhelming invasion.

They do now. Boy, do we all know.

The stories of individual heroism, of defiance, of courage and conviction displayed by the Ukrainians since Russia has invaded the country have moved the world.

This is a near-impossible fight. The Ukrainians mostly alone against one of the planet’s biggest armies, led by one of its most ruthless men.

Ukraine’s plan has never been about realistically stopping the Russians in their tracks, holding the border or forcing an immediate retreat. It’s been about making every step in Ukrainian land as difficult as possible. It’s about a sustained resistance, about citizens taking up arms and homemade explosives, about refusing to bend to occupiers. It’s about inflicting as many casualties as possible and simply outlasting the aggressors until support for this war collapses in Russia.

“Ukrainians are showing their true heroism,” Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video released Friday. “Like our ancestors before, they are charging into battle. Russia continues to expect that our forces will grow tired, but we will not tire.”

Where are Russian forces surrounding Ukraine? Check out this explainer from Yahoo Immersive to find out.

In 2014, Russia overtook the Crimea region of Ukraine without firing a shot. This time, it’s about making it hard. Ukrainian hard.

“The enemy wants to bring the capital to its knees and destroy us,” Vladimir Klitschko said in a statement Friday. “Everyone who can defend the city should join and help our soldiers.”




This is David v. Goliath.

Except there is apparently no shortage of Davids.

It’s the grandfathers and grandmothers, who lived through life under Soviet rule, enlisting to do anything they can. It’s 60-something retiree Dmytro Bellykov who told Reuters that he’s joining up because he’s still a pretty good shot and, if not, he’s good at fixing things.

“I can repair weapons,” he said.

It’s soldier Vitaliy Skakun Volodymrovych, who the Ukrainian government said was setting mines along a bridge when Russian forces arrived before he was done and clear. Rather than flee and let them pass, he blew both himself and the bridge up.

It’s the group of fighters outside of Kherson who lost a critical bridge to the Russians but, per CNN reporting, refused to retreat. Instead, they fought to take it back, at least temporarily.

It’s everything. And everyone. The Ministry of Defense has now encouraged Ukrainians to “inform us of troop movements, to make Molotov cocktails and neutralize the enemy” by almost any means necessary.

This is why each and every act is being celebrated. Old men. Old women. Citizens. Doomed soldiers.

Everything from firebombs to harsh rhetoric that makes it clear that the Russian army is not welcome or wanted there, no matter the propaganda back in Moscow.

Some would rather die than be captured, make one last statement rather than succumb in silence.

These are the Ukrainians; desperate but defiant, one act at a time, a people the world has learned quickly and clearly exactly who they are and what they are about.

SEE LIVE UPDATES

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220225-live-ukraine-updates-russia-vetoes-un-resolution-condemning-its-attack-us-to-sanction-putin

HOMOPHOBIC MISOGYNIST WAR CRIMINAL

Chechen leader, a close Putin ally, 

PUTIN'S PUPPET,

says his forces have deployed to Ukraine

Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov makes an address in Grozny

Sat, February 26, 2022, 7:18 AM·2 min read


MOSCOW (Reuters) -Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Russia's Chechnya region and an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said on Saturday that Chechen fighters had been deployed to Ukraine and urged Ukrainians to overthrow their government.

In a video posted online, Kadyrov boasted that Chechen units had so far suffered no losses and said Russian forces could easily take large Ukrainian cities, including the capital Kyiv, but that their task was to avoid loss of life.

"As of today, as of this minute, we do not have one single casualty, or wounded, not a single man has even had a runny nose," Kadyrov said, denying what he said were false reports of casualties from Ukrainian sources.

"The president (Putin) took the right decision and we will carry out his orders under any circumstances," said Kadyrov.

Kadyrov has often described himself as Putin's "foot soldier" and his words echoed those of the Russian leader who on Friday urged Ukrainians to rise up against their own government, which he said was made up of "neo-Nazis". Ukrainian officials say that description of them is absurd.

Kadyrov has deployed his forces abroad to support Kremlin military operations before - in Syria and Georgia.

Kadyrov released his video as Russian forces pounded Ukrainian cities with artillery and cruise missiles on Saturday for a third day running and a defiant President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the capital Kyiv remained in Ukrainian hands.

A short video published by the state-backed Russian news channel RT, which it said was from Friday, showed thousands of Chechen fighters gathered in the main square of the region's capital Grozny in a show of readiness to fight in Ukraine.

It was not immediately clear whether those fighters, who numbered some 12,000 according to RT, had already been deployed to Ukraine. RT said on Friday that they were awaiting an order from Putin to go in.

Moscow fought two bloody wars with separatists in Chechnya, a mainly Muslim region in southern Russia, after the 1991 break-up of the Soviet Union, but has since poured huge sums of money into the region to rebuild it and given Kadyrov a large measure of autonomy to run things.

(Reporting by Andrew OsbornWriting by Andrei Khalip and Olzhas AuyezovEditing by Andrew Osborn)

Here's why Putin won't win

Andy Serwer with Max Zahn

YAHOO FINANCE

Sat, February 26, 2022

No one knows how Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine will play out (or as people say "what his endgame is") but one thing’s for sure — predicting his next move and any subsequent impact on the global economy is a fool’s errand.

Before I get into that though, and forgive me for being obvious, but aren’t we all sickened by the suffering Putin is bringing to Ukraine? Who knows how many will be uprooted or separated from their parents — never mind wounded or die? And for what? That one person can foist so much horror on the world is frankly depressing. (Note to Xi Jinping: This is your new best friend we’re talking about.)

Returning to the economic state of play, there are at least two levels of ambiguity here. First is what exactly Putin is up to? Second is that markets respond differently to each political crisis or war. Between those two fogs — one of Putin and the other of war — we’re left with little firm ground. Having said that, we can cut through this enough to provide some clarity.

I am no Kremlinologist, armchair or otherwise, but I’ve seen enough of Vlad and his authoritarian ilk to have a feel for his M.O. Putin claims to feel aggrieved regarding Russia’s diminished presence in the world. Madeleine Albright, who went head to head with him as Secretary of State, said as much this week: “Putin is embarrassed by what happened to his country and determined to restore its greatness.” But then she went on to say, and I agree, that mostly he is simply trying to strengthen his hand at home and weaken his rivals abroad. In other words, it’s about maintaining and enhancing his power.

It’s straight out of the dictator’s playbook a la bread and circuses, only this is no Roman metonymy. Putin is bombarding his country and the rest of us with the most sophisticated digital lies, disinformation, trolling and hacks the world has ever seen. It’s "Wag the Dog" in the age of metaverse.

Here’s Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, speaking to Yahoo Finance’s Julie Hyman:

“Is there an end game in which he could declare victory? I would say no, he does not have much of an end game. In fact, I would go even a little bit further, Julie. I would say that he's already lost to the extent that he has now become a pariah in all of Europe. I think that pariah label is going to stick with him for quite some time. I don't know what the offramp is, but what I worry about more than anything else is lots of casualties in the next week or so.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures during a press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron, in Moscow, Russia, February 7, 2022. Thibault Camus/Pool via REUTERS

Putin has to be careful what he wishes for. Take over Ukraine, sure, but then he has to hold it. That will cost Russia a fortune if not in rubles, in human lives. (See Brezhnev and Afghanistan.) It raises questions about Putin’s mental state, which the ever-erudite Peggy Noonan speaks to in this excellent column. Unsettling to say the least.

Still The Wall Street Journal notes Russia has a stronger hand than it did in the 1950s Cold War. Besides supplying Europe with much of its energy, (40% in the case of Italy), China is a vastly more formidable ally and a much bigger trading partner today than 70 years ago. Here too though Putin is testing the limits. Yesterday in a call between Xi and Putin, the Chinese leader urged his Russian counterpart to negotiate with Ukraine, saying “‘cold war mindsets’ should be abandoned,” according to the South China Morning Post. Who knows how much of this is just for show? In Beijing, the Chinese media are mostly feeding the populace a steady diet of "Ukraine-situation-is-America’s-fault" news.

As for the sanctions we have and will impose on Russia and Putin, they carry an unprecedented risk of cyber retaliation.

To the extent Putin’s madness has any sort of method, and if a tertiary goal is to weaken the U.S. and the West, he’s succeeding — some. The S&P 500 is only down 2.6% since the beginning of the crisis on Feb. 10, but the uncertainty and volatility have been gut-wrenching. The price of oil (WTI) is now $91.59 up 2.2% from Feb. 10. (Russia supplies 10% of the world’s oil and gas.) Also, wheat is up 11.4%. As Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman writes, all this will worsen inflation and complicate the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking agenda this spring.

It’s worth noting though, the two countries hurt most here are Ukraine and Russia. The Russian stock market has plunged, falling 32% since Feb. 10. Two of Russia’s highest profile stocks, Gazprom which runs the Nord Stream 2 pipeline into Europe and search engine Yandex, are down 40% and 63%, respectively. The ruble has sunk to a record low versus the dollar.

Will economic conditions deteriorate further because of Ukraine and Putin? Who knows. Maybe next week Xi Jinping will be up for a Nobel Peace Prize.

As terrible as this is for Ukraine, Europe and civilization it may not have much of a lasting impact. In many cases even the biggest geopolitical crises don’t have much staying power when it comes to the markets. (Of course if we get a wholesale European conflict or heaven forbid a nuclear event, all bets are off.)

As you can see from this chart below markets tend to be higher 12 months after a big bad event, unless there is a recession. Which makes sense since, as they say, stocks usually go up, especially over time.

Which to me suggests an encouraging point here. Over time we recover and move on. Meaning at some point, Putin will fail. Sadly there will be much pain and suffering before then. But in the end Putin won't win

MI6 chief believes Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine could be 'unwinnable'

Steve Bird
Sat, February 26, 2022


A Ukrainian soldier walks past the debris of a burning military truck in Kyiv

The head of MI6 has revealed he believes Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine will probably be “unwinnable” because the Russian president will never secure a wider political victory.

Richard Moore, the chief of the UK Secret Intelligence Service, wrote how a report by a leading professor was “fascinating” after it suggested the Russian president will fail in Ukraine because he underestimated its military might and its people’s determination to defend their country.

In a comment posted on his Twitter account, Moore, 58, said the article published by Lawrence Freedman, the Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London, which claimed Putin was “prone to outrageous theories” and an “unhinged rant”, made perfectly good “sense”.

The paper, called A Reckless Gamble, concludes that “whatever the military victories to come, this will be an extraordinarily difficult war for Putin to win politically”.

The professor points out how, despite their military “superiority ... and potentially overwhelming numbers [of troops]”, Russian forces “made less progress than might have been expected on the first day”, even though they had the advantage of “tactical surprise”.

“Yet it is still reasonable to ask if Vladimir Putin has launched an unwinnable war,” Prof Freeman wrote on the website Substack.

Posting a link to the article, Moore, the foreign spy chief, wrote: “Fascinating. Makes sense to me.”

The intelligence service boss, who has more than 133,000 followers on the social media platform, stresses on his profile that “retweets show my interest was piqued, nothing more.”

It is unusual for the MI6 chief to comment so openly about speculation regarding international and diplomatically sensitive affairs.

Richard Moore, head of the Secret Intelligence Service

Around the same time, he posted a comment praising this year’s LGBT History Month, adding: “With the tragedy and destruction unfolding so distressingly in Ukraine, we should remember the values and hard-won freedoms that distinguish us from Putin, none more than LGBT+ rights.”

He included an account of one of his intelligence operatives who told of their delight after discovering an “LGBT+ network group” shortly after joining MI6 which offered support and reassurance.

Earlier this week, Moore, known in Whitehall as C, took to Twitter to boast how his spies, along with their American counterparts, scored a considerable intelligence victory over Russia after uncovering Putin’s plans to order an attack on Ukraine.

'Unprovoked cruel aggression'

Moore wrote: “US and UK intelligence communities uncovered Putin’s plans for Ukraine.

“We exposed his attempts to engineer ‘false flag’, fake attacks to justify his invasion. This attack was long-planned, unprovoked, cruel aggression.”

Russia had dismissed the West's claims as anti-Russian hysteria and disinformation.

Although, perhaps inevitably, Moore failed to give any indication of where or how the intelligence was gleaned.

But, this latest approval of the professor’s paper offers a tantalising insight into what Moore thinks of Putin.

The professor wrote how Ukraine’s “spirited resistance” meant “we have been reminded that the morale and determination of those defending their country tends to be higher than that of those mounting an invasion, especially if they are unsure why they are doing so.”

He said Putin’s “less than sure-footed start to his campaign”, in part owing to an army with “limited” experience of large-scale ground operations, meant Russia would have to treat Ukraine with “more respect” and respond more methodically.

The professor concludes: “At times in democracies we lament the flabbiness, incoherence, short-sightedness and inertia of our decision-making, compared with autocrats who can outsmart us by thinking long-term and then taking bold steps without any need to convince a sceptical public, listen to critics, or be held back by such awkward constraints as the rule of law.

“Putin reminds us that autocracy can lead to great errors, and while democracy by no means precludes us [from] making our own mistakes, it at least allows us opportunities to move swiftly to new leaders and new policies when that happens. Would that this now happens in Russia.”