SCI-FI-TEK-70 YRS OLD, STILL WAITING

High power gyrotron set for ST40 tokamak installation

Tuesday, 21 January 2025

World Nuclear News

A gyrotron built by Japan's Kyoto Fusioneering has been delivered to Tokamak Energy in the UK and is due to be installed on the ST40 spherical tokamak this year - it is expected to play a key role in informing fusion pilot plant designs.

The gyrotron, with Morgan, left, Sakamoto, third from left, Emma Wooldridge, heating and current drive team leader, second left, and Vladimir Shevchenko, senior technical advisor (Image: Tokamak Energy)

The new gyrotron will produce 1 MW of radio frequency power for Tokamak Energy over 18 months. It generates high-power electromagnetic waves for controlling and heating a hydrogen plasma to temperatures many time hotter than the sun.

Ross Morgan, director of strategic partnerships at Oxfordshire-based Tokamak Energy, said: "We’re excited to work with our partners Kyoto Fusioneering to add this important upgrade to our record-breaking fusion machine, and continue to operate ST40 to test and push new boundaries. The results from future experiments using the high-power gyrotron heating system will provide critical data to inform the design of future spherical tokamak pilot plants, on our mission to commercialise clean and limitless fusion energy in the 2030s."

Kyoto Fusioneering’s CEO, Chief Fusioneer, and Co-Founder, Satoshi Konishi, said: "We are honoured to contribute to Tokamak Energy’s ST40, which stands as a benchmark for public-private partnerships and international collaboration. This partnership, bolstered by strong UK-Japan collaboration, represents a significant step forward in the pursuit of fusion energy. Committed to delivering world-class gyrotrons and exceptional engineering support, we look forward to working together to achieve the shared goal of clean, sustainable fusion power."

Tokamak Energy explained that a gyrotron works by a beam of electrons travelling through a strong magnetic field, which accelerates them to the point where they emit microwave radiation which is directed through a waveguide to the plasma of fusion fuels - isotopes of hydrogen.

"The frequency of the microwaves is tuned to match the cyclotron resonance frequency of the electrons in the plasma (104GHz or 137GHz in the case of ST40). When the microwaves interact with the plasma, they transfer energy to the electrons, which heats and drives the plasma. A gyrotron, which uses Electron Cyclotron Resonance Heating, solves one of the key challenges for a spherical tokamak – limited space for a central solenoid, which would otherwise be required to induce the plasma current. A gyrotron means the central solenoid can be reduced in size."

Tokamak Energy plans to use both its current neutral beam heating and gyrotron heating simultaneously, saying "this will build greater understanding of how a gyrotron works, the control systems needed and the best balance between the two forms of heating".

Background
 

Tokamak Energy was spun out of the UK's Atomic Energy Authority in 2009. It announced in February 2023 it was to build a prototype spherical tokamak, the ST80-HTS, at the UKAEA's Culham Campus, near Oxford, England, by 2026 "to demonstrate the full potential of high temperature superconducting magnets" and to inform the design of its fusion pilot plant, to demonstrate the capability to deliver electricity into the grid in the 2030s, with the aim of globally deployable 500-megawatt commercial plants.

And in October it gave first details of a high-field spherical tokamak plant "capable of generating 800 MW of fusion power and 85 MW of net electricity" as part of the USA's Bold Decadal Vision for Commercial Fusion Energy programme. It said "initial designs are for the tokamak to have an aspect ratio of 2.0, plasma major radius of 4.25 metres and a magnetic field of 4.25 Tesla, as well as a liquid lithium tritium breeding blanket". It will include a new generation set of high temperature superconducting magnets "to confine and control the deuterium and tritium hydrogen fuel in a plasma many times hotter than the centre of the sun".

In December it was announced that the US and UK energy departments were going to partner with Tokamak Energy for a USD52 million upgrade of the ST40 fusion facility which will coat its inner wall with lithium. The ST40, which uses applied magnetic fields to confine plasma, is privately owned and valued at more than USD100 million, the US Department of Energy said at the time of the announcement. 

Tokamak Energy, in a previous partnership with the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory achieved temperatures in ST40 which were six times hotter than the sun, becoming the first private firm to reach a plasma temperature of 100 million degrees Celsius. Both laboratories will be assisting in the ST40 upgrade with their expertise, Princeton on lithium coatings and Oak Ridge on deploying pellet fuelling capabilities. 

 

AECL, CNL gauge interest in use of small reactor designs

Tuesday, 21 January 2025

World Nuclear News

Atomic Energy of Canada Limited and Canadian Nuclear Laboratories have issued a Request for Expression of Interest to better understand market interest in licensing AECL's Slowpoke and Nuclear Battery reactor technologies for commercialisation opportunities.

(Image: AECL)

The Request for Expression of Interest (RFEOI) invites technology developers and other interested stakeholders to submit their insights and feedback about the innovative reactor designs and technologies, which collectively have broad applications that include electricity generation, district heating, isotope production and physics research.

Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) said its Slowpoke - from Safe Low-Power 'Kritical' Experiment - technology is a family of low-pressure, pool-type reactors. It was designed by Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL) in the 1960s for neutron activation analysis, trace radioisotope production and as a tool for teaching nuclear science and engineering. AECL said it is a small, simple, inexpensive and inherently safe reactor design that has years of operations experience, and which has been successfully licensed and operated safely in Canada for decades. 

"The success of small Slowpoke research reactors has also motivated exploration of the potential for larger versions of the concept, which could be used for district heating," it noted. 

AECL's Nuclear Battery technology is a solid-state, graphite moderated heat-pipe-cooled microreactor concept that would be able to produce a combination of electricity (up to 600 kWe) and heat (up to 2400 kWth at about 400°C) for up to 15 years without refuelling. Largely envisioned for electricity or industrial heat processes, the concept was developed and advanced by AECL in the 1980s and 90s.

With initial research suggesting that both reactors may have broad appeal within the international technology development community, AECL and CNL are now interested in learning more about market interest in these technologies, including reactor design, engineering and sales, as well as end-use applications, such as district heating, electrical generation, isotope production and neutron activation analysis.

Participants are required to submit their Notice of Intent to Participate by 31 January and CNL will also be hosting an optional workshop and tour for registered participants on 19 February at the Chalk River Laboratories campus. Final RFEOI responses will be due on 12 March.

"Through our programme of work, including the small modular reactor siting programme and Canadian Nuclear Research Initiative, CNL has leveraged its resources to help develop and deploy the next generation of nuclear reactors here in Canada," said CNL Vice-President of Corporate Affairs and Business Development Lou Riccoboni. "With that goal in mind, we see real opportunity and value in AECL's Slowpoke and Nuclear Battery designs, which have tremendous potential to help combat climate change, and to advance research in physics and health sciences.

"This RFEOI process allows us to engage technologies developers to determine whether there is commercial interest in exploiting these innovative designs, which would help advance these important causes, while making the most of AECL's Intellectual Property on behalf of Canadian taxpayers."

 

Orano lodges second arbitration against Niger

Tuesday, 21 January 2025

World Nuclear News

Orano has announced it is lodging a second arbitration procedure against the State of Niger following its loss of operational control of SOMAÏR, the operator of the Arlit uranium mine.

(Image: Peter Hermes Furian - stock.adobe.com)

Orano said it has filed its request for arbitration with the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes.

"This litigation is now Orano's last possible recourse, after several attempts at amicable resolution have gone unanswered," the French company said, adding that the state's "obstruction of the commercialisation of production, as well as the suppression of Orano's offtake rights, have only aggravated SOMAÏR's financial situation and the prejudice suffered by Orano".

The group recognised the loss of operational control of SOMAÏR - which is 63.4% owned by Orano, and 36.6% owned by Niger state-owned mining assets company SOPAMIN on 4 December.

"In this context, Orano, the majority shareholder, plans to claim damages and assert its rights over the inventory corresponding to SOMAÏR's production," the company said.

Orano filed an initial request for arbitration filed against the State of Niger concerning the withdrawal of its mining licence for the Imouraren project on 20 December.

"Orano expresses its deepest regret regarding the evolution of the situation and the position of the State of Niger, which weigh heavily on the employees of the group's mining subsidiaries and on local communities," the company said in the new statement.

SOMAÏR had been facing financial difficulties following the July 2023 coup d'état in Niger, since when it has been unable to resume uranium sales. In November, SOMAÏR's board voted to suspend expenses related to production activities in order to prioritise the payment of salaries. SOPAMIN's representatives abstained from that vote, and Orano later said the application of the resolution had been prevented.

Arlit is Orano's only currently operational uranium mine in Niger. Last year, the State of Niger withdrew Orano subsidiary Imouraren SA's licence to exploit the Imouraren deposit and Canadian company GoviEx Uranium's mining rights for the Madouela uranium project, but Global Atomic's development of the Dasa uranium mine is continuing, with expressions of support from the Niger government.

Climate and energy in Trump's Day One executive orders

Tuesday, 21 January 2025

World Nuclear News

New US President Donald Trump has declared a national energy emergency, announced the country's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, and named cabinet-level appointees including new heads of the Department of Energy and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

Trump signed more than 20 executive orders on the first day of his second term as president (Image: White House/X)

In an inauguration address that made no direct mention of climate or the environment, the President promised to "drill, baby, drill" and to use the country's oil and gas reserves to underpin a resurgence of US manufacturing. "We will bring prices down, fill our strategic reserves up again right to the top, and export American energy all over the world," he said. "We will be a rich nation again, and it is that liquid gold under our feet that will help to do it."

Trump went on to sign some 26 executive orders within hours of his inauguration: according to the Washington Post, in the first day of his previous administration, he signed only one of the 220 orders he would later go on to sign over the next four years. Many of the orders signed by the President on 20 January could be challenged in court, the Washington Post points out, in a legal process that could slow down or halt their implementation.

National energy emergency
 

The executive order Declaring a National Energy Emergency says insufficient energy production, transportation, refining, and generation "constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat to our Nation’s economy, national security, and foreign policy" and says expansion of energy infrastructure is an "immediate and pressing priority".

"Moreover, the United States has the potential to use its unrealised energy resources domestically, and to sell to international allies and partners a reliable, diversified, and affordable supply of energy," the action notes. Uranium is included in the order's definition of the terms "energy" or "energy resources".

Paris rescinded
 

In the order Putting America First In International Environmental Agreements the president says the policy of his administration is "to put the interests of the United States and the American people first in the development and negotiation of any international agreements with the potential to damage or stifle the American economy. These agreements must not unduly or unfairly burden the United States".

Under this order, "The United States Ambassador to the United Nations shall immediately submit formal written notification of the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change" to the Secretary-General of the United Nations. "The United States will consider its withdrawal from the Agreement and any attendant obligations to be effective immediately upon this provision of notification," the order notes.

It also instructs the Ambassador to the United Nations to immediately submit formal notice of the USA's withdrawal from "any agreement, pact, accord, or similar commitment made under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change" and to "cease or revoke" any financial commitment made by the USA under the convention.

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2, and preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared with pre-industrial levels. The agreement entered into force in November 2016, but Trump announced his decision to withdraw from it in 2017 during his first term as president. The US withdrawal was formally completed in November 2020, but an executive order on re-entering the agreement was one of the first to be signed by Joe Biden when he was inaugurated as president in January 2021.

Energy unleashed
 

An executive order on Unleashing American Energy orders an "immediate review of all agency actions that potentially burden the development of domestic energy resources". It directs the heads of "all agencies" to review existing regulations and agency actions to identify those that "impose an undue burden on the identification, development, or use of domestic energy resources - with particular attention to oil, natural gas, coal, hydropower, biofuels, critical mineral, and nuclear energy resources". It also, among other things, instructs the US Geological Survey "to consider updating the Survey’s list of critical minerals, including for the potential of including uranium".

This order rescinds 12 climate-related orders from the previous administration, as well as terminating immediately "all activities, programmes, and operations associated with the American Climate Corps", an initiative launched by then-Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, with the help of actor, producer and climate advocate Robert Downey Jr, in 2022 to recruit climate professionals for the deployment of some USD62 billion of investment to meet climate goals.

"The American dream will soon be back and thriving like never before," Trump promised.

Officers and secretaries
 

Appointments and nominations announced by Trump on 20 January include:

Douglas Burgum to be Secretary of the Interior
Christopher Wright to be Secretary of Energy
Howard Lutnick to be Secretary of Commerce
Preston Griffith to be Under Secretary of Energy
Brandon Williams to be Under Secretary for Nuclear Security

Ingrid Kolb is appointed as Acting Secretary of Energy pending Wright's formal appointment.

David Wright has been designated by the President as Chair of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Mark Christie as Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

 

Permian Basin Oil and Gas Output Faces Disruption Due to Freezing Temperatures

By ZeroHedge - Jan 21, 2025

Texas is facing a major winter storm with extreme cold and snow, which could lead to record-breaking electricity demand.

ERCOT has issued a Weather Watch but anticipates having sufficient supply to meet demand.

Concerns remain about potential power grid strain and disruptions to natural gas production due to freezing temperatures.
Texas' top electricity regulator issued a "Weather Watch" from Monday morning through Thursday, citing "extreme cold weather" and the potential for snow, which could send electrical demand soaring across the state.
According to the National Weather Service, snow is forecasted to begin in Houston on Monday evening and accumulate to upwards of 4 inches by Tuesday. After the snow, frigid temperatures are expected to sweep in, bringing dangerously cold conditions that could jeopardize the power grid and energy infrastructure.
"Weather Watch goes into effect today through January 23 due to forecasted extreme cold weather across the ERCOT region, higher electrical demand, and the potential for lower reserves," the Electric Reliability Council of Texas wrote on X, adding, "Winter precipitation is also expected across parts of the state. Grid conditions are expected to be normal."
Tony Fracasso, a senior branch forecaster at the US Weather Prediction Center, said, "It's a significant storm for so far south.
"It looks like almost the entirety of Texas has some chance of wintery precipitation," Fracasso noted.
The early alert issued by ERCOT implies that extreme cold could pressure the power grid. ERCOT stated that peak electricity demand is expected to rise over the next two days, reaching about 77.2 gigawatts. Even though ERCOT predicts high demand, it anticipates having sufficient supply to meet demand.
"As freezing temps blanket Texas, the power grid is performing better than ever," Governor Greg Abbott wrote on X Sunday evening, adding, "There is ample supply of power available to meet your needs."
Besides potential grid strains, frigid temperatures could curtail natural gas supplies due to the freezing of oil and gas wells and pipes, known as "freeze-offs" by energy analysts.
On Tuesday, West Texas temperatures will average around 29F. Through Saturday, average temperatures in the oil-rich Permian basin will remain below the 30-year average of 47F for this time of year. This cold could disrupt oil and gas output by freezing water in wells and pipelines.


Ahead of the snow, Houston Airports announced that flights at George Bush Intercontinental Airport, William P. Hobby Airport, and Ellington Airport will be suspended on Tuesday morning.
The storm is expected to blanket snow across the Gulf Coast and Deep South coastal areas.
Meteorologist Tony Pann questioned if this wintery weather for the Gulf Coast was a "once-in-a-lifetime event"...
By Zerohedge.com

Gulf Coast Ports Closed for Unusual “Snow Day”

Houston is covered by snow and freezing air temperatures (University of Houston on X)

Published Jan 21, 2025 1:34 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

 

Port operations ranging from Houston to New Orleans to Mobile are all being disrupted by an unprecedented snowstorm followed by record-cold air temperatures. Lacking the equipment to deal with the snow which ranges between 1 to 6 inches in places, the ports declared a “snow day.”

Weather reports indicate the unusual weather pattern that is moving along the U.S. Gulf Coast will impact as many as 40 million people. Authorities from Texas to Louisiana and on into the Carolina are urging people to stay home. Reports are that as many as 2,000 flights have been canceled and the major seaports suspended operations.

Port Houston, the busiest on the Gulf Coast, issued an alert warning “Container terminal truck gates will close today, Monday, as planned at 4 pm. Vessel ops will be suspended this evening based on local weather conditions.” The port’s operations centers are closed on Tuesday, January 21 and the port has now announced its facilities will remain closed on Wednesday. It is planning Saturday hours to help customers catch up from the delays.

Freeze warnings for Texas remain in place till Wednesday morning. Some institutions, including the University of Houston, report it will remain closed on Wednesday, January 22, “due to continued hazardous winter weather conditions.” The university says it will resume normal operations on Thursday, January 23.

The pilots handling vessels Reuters reports sent out an alert suspending operations. According to the report, pilots were scheduled to halt ship movements just before midnight on Monday. It is anticipated the vessels will begin to move again on Wednesday when air temperatures are predicted to rebound above freeze. By the weekend, air temperatures are due to be back to 60 degrees Fahrenheit.

To the east in Louisiana, the National Weather Service issued the first-ever blizzard warning with three to six inches of snow expected. Officials are saying they have not had this level of snow since 1960 while noting the record for snowfall dates back to 1895. At the Port of New Orleans, operations were closed on Monday, January 20, for the national Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday. Both New Orleans Terminal and Ports America are closed on Tuesday and reporting due to the freeze conditions are not scheduled to resume operations till Thursday, January 22.

The Alabama Port Authority posted a notice saying it would discontinue operations and close all offices and facilities at 7 am on Tuesday, January 21. The Port Authority facilities it reports will reopen and resume operations Thursday morning at 7 am on January 23rd assuming conditions permit.

CRIMINAL CRYPTO CAPITALI$M  

Trump's Crypto Launch Sparks Debate About U.S. Regulation

By City A.M - Jan 21, 2025

Bitcoin hit a record high amidst Donald Trump's return to the White House and the launch of Trump family meme coins.

The $TRUMP and $MELANIA meme coins experienced significant market volatility, raising concerns about their purpose and potential for investor losses.

Trump's pro-crypto stance and the meme coin launches have sparked debate about the future of cryptocurrency regulation and the US's role in the crypto market.


Bitcoin hit record highs on Monday, as President- Donald Trump, and First Lady-again Melania Trump launched their meme coins, days ahead of the inauguration.

The cryptocurrency leader reached above $108,000(£88,668) for the first time ever on Monday morning, ahead of Trump’s official return to office.

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “With the writing on the wall so overwhelmingly pro-crypto as Trump returns to the White House, Bitcoin has surged again in value to a fresh record high.”

This price surge followed the launch of the Trump family’s cryptocurrencies over the weekend, under the names of $TRUMP and $MELANIA.

Both meme coins initially surged dramatically, with the Trumps’ crypto gaining over 18,000 per cent in value within its first 24 hours.

By Saturday afternoon, just hours after its launch, the meme coin’s market capitalisation had boomed to $5.5bn (£4.5bn), reported CoinMarketCap, making it one of the most spoken about digital assets in the world.

He introduced his coin on his social media platform, Truth social, calling it a celebration of “everything we stand for: WINNING!”

Melania followed suit on Sunday evening by announcing the launch of her own meme coin on Musk’s X, urging investors to “buy $MELANIA now”.

Her coin diverted attention and market value from Trump’s coin, which fell below $8bn (£6.5bn) at one point as a result.

Both coins have been described as symbolic, rather than financial instruments, having been disclaimed as “not political”, or tied to any campaigns.


Yet, critics have accused the Trumps of using their platforms to profit from market speculation.

Crypto venture capitalist Nick Tomaino called the timing and structure “predatory”, warning that many investors could lose money when the hype fades.

Meme coins are known for their volatility and lack of stable, intrinsic value, relying on social media buzz for its demand.

Some praised Trump for embracing digital currencies, seeing it as a broader sign that his incoming administration, from Monday, will be pro-crypto.

This follows his promise to make the US the “crypto capital of the planet” during his presidential campaign.


Streeter deemed this as a “sign that Trump’s pledge to make the US the Bitcoin capital of the world will be honoured. “

Others saw this move as undermining crypto’s credibility.

“Meme coins like this are a distraction and a setback for serious crypto projects”, said Rob Hadick, partner at Dragonfly Capital.

The timing of both launches also raised questions about their purpose, raising accusations of profiteering, with critics suggesting the ventures were designed to capitalise on the President’s return to power.

Streeter, however, warned investors: “Although institutional interest and expected changes in regulation are adding more legitimacy, it’s still a highly volatile asset and has a history of dropping sharply after steep climbs.”


By City AM

Greenland's Rare Earth Riches: The Epicenter of a New Cold War?

By Metal Miner - Jan 21, 2025

The US has a long-standing interest in Greenland, with Trump's recent push driven by national security concerns and Greenland's vast rare earth deposits.

China currently controls most of the global rare earth production and processing, using it as a geopolitical tool.

Greenland's rare earth resources could provide the US with an opportunity to reduce its dependence on China and enhance its supply chain security.


 U.S. President Donald Trump has not been shy about his interest in “purchasing” Greenland, and it is possible rare earths are a big reason why. However, Trump is not the first President to consider adopting the northern landmass, which is currently an autonomous region under the Kingdom of Denmark. It remains to be seen whether this attempt will be successful or not.
A Long History of U.S. Interest in Greenland

According to media reports, the earliest recorded attempt by the U.S. to acquire Greenland was in 1868. More recently, President Harry Truman’s administration made an effort, and Trump himself proposed doing so in 2009. However, nothing further happened in the latter case, except that he had to cancel an upcoming visit to Denmark.

Earlier U.S. efforts were primarily driven by trade and, to some extent, strategic considerations. However, Trump’s renewed push incorporates national security alongside these traditional motivations. After all, Greenland sits on some of the largest deposits of rare earths in the world, including metals like neodymium, dysprosium and scandium, to name a few.

Nowadays, all of those are required to manufacture critical components in things like computers, mobile phones, electric vehicle batteries and wind turbines, as well as technology related to the defense sector. Greenland is also home to the Kvanefjeld deposit, one of the world’s richest rare earth reserves, which contains significant uranium deposits essential for nuclear applications. Trump has already declared that Greenland is needed for “national security” purposes. This sets up the potential for an arctic “tug of war” in his coming term.

Some Facts About Rare EarthsAs per statistics released by the U.S. Geological Survey and the International Energy Agency, most global rare earths production and processing is currently handled by China. Production-wise, Beijing controls about 70% of the total production, while it processes about 90% of mined rare earths.

As much as 99% of the processing for heavy rare earths, a subset of primary rare earth elements, is also done by China. These are important for the production of EVs, fiber optic cables and more.

Because China controls most of global rare earth exports, it has been using rare earths as a tool to gain geopolitical advantage.

Reasons for Chinese Dominance

Beijing not only declared rare earth elements a property of the state, but it banned the export of technologies used for their extraction in October 2024. For many reasons, it has always been a challenge to diversify the rare earths supply chain beyond China. This is despite the fact that nations like Australia, Brazil, Angola and Canada sit on plentiful rare earth deposits, and despite mines opening up in other countries.



Map of the Arctic region, the northwest passage and the northern sea route. Credit: lesniewski

According to this analysis, the main issues with countering Chinese dominance in the industry stem from the subsidies the Chinese government provides to rare earth miners, the extensive deposits the country has already stockpiled and economies of scale. The analysis quotes Neha Mukherjee, a senior critical minerals analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, as saying that all these reasons help Chinese firms undercut competitors with low prices.

Also, many rare earths are by-products of mining other minerals like iron ore, which keeps them from being produced consistently. This further complicates efforts to establish alternative supply chains.
Why the U.S. Continues to Eye Greenland

Because of China’s tight-fisted control over the supply of rare earths to global markets, the U.S. must look at other countries or regions outside its borders to break the Chinese stranglehold. Greenland offers that opportunity. Gaining access to Greenland’s resources could enhance Washington’s supply chain security and reduce China’s potential leverage.

At the same time, the U.S. remains acutely aware of Russia’s focus in the Arctic, which revolves around both rare earth minerals and maritime transport. For example, the Northern Sea Route, a historic Arctic shipping lane officially recognized under Russian law, extends from the Barents Sea, located north of Finland, to the Bering Strait.

By Sohrab Darabshaw

TEAL ENERGY

Rystad: Balancing Natural Gas and Renewables Key to U.S. Energy Future

By Rystad Energy - Jan 16, 2025,

Data center expansion is driving a significant increase in US electricity demand, putting pressure on the power grid and necessitating substantial investment.

Natural gas is experiencing a resurgence due to its reliability, while renewable energy growth is expected to plateau in the near term.

Balancing investments in natural gas, renewable energy sources, and grid infrastructure is crucial to meet the growing demand and ensure a stable energy future for the US.


The US power sector is undergoing a significant transformation this year, with electricity consumption projected to exceed 4,200 terawatt-hours (TWh) for the first time. Although just a 2% increase from 2024, this is a sign of things to come, highlighting the evolving power landscape driven by surging demand from data centers and a shifting energy mix integrating traditional and renewable sources.

Data centers are at the heart of this transformation, with capacity standing at 22 gigawatts (GW) at the end of 2023, representing nearly 40% of global demand. Looking ahead, an additional 60 GW of capacity is anticipated in the US by 2035 based on announced projects, with power use from these facilities expected to rise from 130 TWh in 2023 to up to 450 TWh. The US is capitalizing on low-cost energy, tax incentives and robust fiber-optic infrastructure to lead the global market for data center developments, with Virginia and Texas attracting significant investments. Virginia’s so-called ‘Data Center Alley’ benefits from its advanced infrastructure and tax incentives, while Texas offers favorable grid policies and abundant renewable energy resources.

As the US power sector navigates this pivotal moment, strategic investments in grid infrastructure are required, along with a balanced reliance on various energy sources and the expansion of energy storage capabilities. How these elements are managed will ultimately define the future trajectory of the US power sector in the decades to come.

The US power sector is entering a critical growth phase. Meeting the demands of data centers while balancing investments in natural gas and renewables will shape the industry’s path forward. Without targeted action, rising costs and energy shortages could pose significant challenges for both consumers and industry.

Artem Abramov, Head of New Energies Research, Rystad Energy




Learn more with Rystad Energy’s Renewables & Power Solution.

As demand grows, natural gas has regained prominence as a reliable energy source, with utility companies planning 17.5 GW of new capacity in the coming years—the highest level of project activity since 2017. This resource plays a key role in ensuring the reliability needed for energy-intensive data centers. Projects such as Entergy’s new facilities in Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi underscore this trend. Yet, the sector faces hurdles, particularly with aging transmission infrastructure struggling to support growing demand and integrate new projects.

On January 14, 2025, President Joe Biden issued an executive order to alleviate certain bottlenecks and expedite data center and clean power infrastructure permitting and buildout on federal land. The order requires the Secretary of Defense and Secretary of Energy to each identify at least three federal sites by February 28, 2025, where data centers and associated clean power facilities can be built. Our early assessment suggests that there is strong bipartisan support for the general concept of making federal land more accessible to the growth-oriented data center sector. Having said that, strict clean power requirements that allow natural gas to qualify only with a carbon capture rate above 90% are unlikely to be popular with the incoming Donald Trump administration.

On the renewables front, it appears likely that the utility sector will experience a modest slowdown after a record-setting 2024 that saw 33 gigawatts alternating current (GWAC) of new capacity of solar photovoltaic (PV) added, based on preliminary data. Growth is expected to plateau this year, with advanced-stage projects totaling 33.5 GWAC. However, energy storage continues to thrive. Battery installations surged 50% in 2024, reaching 32.5 gigawatt-hours (GWh), and are forecast to grow another 35% this year, driven by larger and more standardized systems.


For consumers, these developments come with financial implications. Residential electricity prices averaged $165 per megawatt-hour (MWh) last year, a 25% rise from 2020. Elevated transmission and distribution costs, despite declining wholesale natural gas prices, are expected to keep electricity bills high for the foreseeable future.



By Rystad Energy

Banks Ditch Net Zero as Climate Alliances Crumble

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 21, 2025, 

Major US and Canadian banks have withdrawn from the Net-Zero Banking Alliance following pressure from Republican-led states and the election of President Trump.

BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, has also left the Net Zero Asset Managers initiative due to legal concerns and confusion surrounding its practices.

European banks are reevaluating their participation in net-zero alliances, and the future of climate finance initiatives is uncertain.


A few years ago, the world’s biggest banks and asset managers raced to commit to funding the energy transition and drop fossil fuel projects from portfolios as they came under shareholder and market pressure to join net-zero alliances.

But after years of scrutiny and blacklisting from Republican states in the U.S. and lawsuits from Republican attorney generals, North American banks and asset managers began quitting net-zero alliances en masse following President Donald Trump’s election victory.

Net Zero Exodus

The top U.S. banks and four of Canada’s largest banks are no longer part of the Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA), a group of leading global banks committed to aligning their lending, investment, and capital markets activities with net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

Now several European banks are considering withdrawing from the NZBA, too, while the leading figures of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) – the umbrella group for the finance institutions that have pledged net zero goals – are struggling to hold their regular annual meeting this month, the Financial Times reports, citing sources with knowledge of the situation.


Some of Europe’s biggest banks are rethinking their membership and involvement in net-zero initiatives as Donald Trump returns to office and Republican-led U.S. states are going after “woke capital.” This, they say, discriminates against America’s oil, gas, and coal industry by committing to net-zero portfolios and adopting principles that could reduce financing for fossil fuel projects.

Since early December, the biggest U.S. banks – Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and JP Morgan – have all quit the NZBA.

Commenting on the banks’ withdrawals, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said,

“More and more financial institutions are taking a major step in the right direction by leaving the radical and anti-energy Net-Zero Banking Alliance.

“The NZBA seeks to undermine our vital oil and gas industries, and membership could potentially prevent banks from being able to enter into contracts with Texas governmental entities,” Paxton added.


BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, early this month quit the parallel Net Zero Asset Managers initiative in the latest exit of a major financial institution from a climate finance alliance since Trump was elected U.S. President.

BlackRock has decided to leave the voluntary Net Zero Asset Managers initiative, which launched in December 2020 and aims to “support the asset management industry to commit to a goal of net zero emissions in order to mitigate financial risk and to maximize long-term value of assets.”

The world’s top asset manager has quit the initiative because its membership has “caused confusion regarding BlackRock’s practices and subjected us to legal inquiries from various public officials,” Vice Chairman Philipp Hildebrand wrote in a letter to institutional clients.

Net Zero Under Scrutiny

BlackRock and major banks have come under increased pressure from Republican politicians and Republican-governed states over their pledges to scale back funding for fossil fuel projects.


Texas authorities, for example, have decided to withdraw $8.5 billion in assets of the Permanent School Fund from the asset manager. The Texas legislature passed a law in 2021 to penalize financial firms that, according to state authorities, discriminate against energy companies.

At the end of November, a group of Republican states led by Texas sued BlackRock and fellow asset managers Vanguard and State Street for alleged violation of antitrust laws. The states allege that the asset managers have been pressuring coal firms to lower output to cut emissions, thus driving up electricity prices in America.

Since leaving the net-zero asset managers’ alliance, BlackRock has reached a settlement with the state of Tennessee, which had sued the world’s biggest asset manager for misleading consumers regarding the role of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors in its investment practices. The settlement concluded a lawsuit filed by the State of Tennessee under the Tennessee Consumer Protection Act (TCPA).

“The Americans are totally obsessed about not being sued by Texas. The banks have been the worst,” a European executive involved in the Glasgow initiative told FT.

Canadian banks BMO, National Bank, TD Bank Group, and CIBC also quit the net-zero banking alliance last week.


European lenders have threatened to follow suit unless NZBA eases rules and ends “all formal tracking and any issues that are perceived contrary to US antitrust”, according to FT’s sources.

The asset managers’ net zero alliance is already struggling under the pressure. A week ahead of President Trump’s inauguration, the Net Zero Asset Managers said it was launching a review of the initiative.

“Recent developments in the U.S. and different regulatory and client expectations in investors’ respective jurisdictions have led to NZAM launching a review of the initiative to ensure NZAM remains fit for purpose in the new global context,” the alliance said.

While the review is ongoing, the initiative is suspending activities to track signatory implementation and reporting.

European banks want the net-zero banking alliance to undergo a similar overhaul. Otherwise, they have threatened to quit and follow in the footsteps of the biggest U.S. and Canadian banks.


“Several banks have said that unless the banking alliance goes the same way [as] the asset management initiative, they will begin the process to leave,” a source familiar with the banks’ thinking told FT.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

Scotiabank Joins Wall Street-Led Exit of Bankers’ Climate Club

By Alastair Marsh and Christine Dobby,

 Bloomberg News

January 20, 2025 

CIO of Purpose Investments Greg Taylor explains why he's not concerned over Scotiabank's Q4 misses as he says their earnings were in-line with its trajectory.

(Bloomberg) -- Bank of Nova Scotia is the latest major bank to walk away from the industry’s biggest climate-finance alliance, following a mass exodus led by Wall Street.

The lender confirmed Monday it left the Net-Zero Banking Alliance, news that comes after Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank of Montreal, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and National Bank of Canada all said Friday they were leaving the NZBA.

Scotiabank and other lenders that quit the group all said the decision won’t affect their commitment to decarbonizing their business.

In Scotiabank’s case, the firm “will continue to finance the transition and support our clients in implementing their sustainability strategies — this is the most important role that we can play,” spokesperson Katie Raskina said by email, adding that the bank “will continue to report on our progress, while meeting the varied and growing requirements of regulators across the globe.”

Royal Bank of Canada is the only large Canadian bank remaining in the alliance, but the country’s biggest lender has suggested it’s reconsidering that membership. Dave McKay, RBC’s chief executive officer, said in early January that pulling out of the NZBA “doesn’t lead to a non-commitment to net zero or climate change.”

A representative for RBC did not immediately respond to a request for comment Monday on the status of its membership in the group.

Canadian banks were some of the biggest financiers to oil, gas and coal companies in 2024, with Toronto-Dominion, RBC, BMO and CIBC ranking among the top 10 for such deals, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The biggest provider of fossil-fuel finance last year was JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Since the beginning of December, the NZBA has been abandoned by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo & Co., Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan. The moves come as US President Donald Trump makes clear he’ll seek to roll back Biden-era climate policies and instead promote a revival of fossil-fuel production. Trump’s return has also emboldened the Republican Party in its ongoing attacks on climate finance, as states double down on bans and lawsuits.

Other climate alliances have lost high-profile members. Just over a week into the new year, BlackRock Inc. said it was ending its membership in the Net Zero Asset Managers initiative. The firm, which was among the asset managers singled out in a lawsuit led by Texas alleging antitrust breaches due to the adoption of pro-climate strategies that suppress coal production, said staying in NZAM had exposed it to “legal inquiries.”

In 2023, a net-zero group for insurers saw a mass walkout amid Republican litigation threats. A similar group for investors, Climate Action 100+, was hit by high-profile defections last year by the asset-management arms of Goldman, JPMorgan and Pacific Investment Management Co.

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

Oil Majors Borrow Billions for Buybacks as Production Wanes

By Alex Kimani - Jan 21, 2025, 

US oil drilling activity has dropped to near post-pandemic lows due to low oil prices and cost inflation, with the rig count falling for over two years.

Oil companies are prioritizing shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, even resorting to borrowing to fund them, rather than investing in new drilling.

Structural changes in the US shale industry, including a focus on efficiency gains and consolidation, are making it difficult to rapidly increase production even with deregulation efforts.



Oil prices fell for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, with market experts attributing the decline to the bearish nature of President Trump’s “Drill, Baby, Drill” agenda on oil prices. True to word, Trump signed an executive order on Monday repealing former President efforts to block oil drilling in the Arctic and along large areas off the U.S. coasts. Trump also repealed a 2023 memo that barred oil drilling in some 16 million acres (6.5 million hectares) in the Arctic. However, it’s going to take a lot more to lure oil executives to ramp up oil production.

The latest Baker Hughes survey has revealed that U.S. oil drilling has declined dramatically to just one rig above its post-pandemic lows. Active oil drilling rigs fell by two w/w to 478 in the latest survey, leaving activity just one rig above its post-pandemic low; 149 rigs below November 2002’s post-pandemic high and 73 rigs lower than at the time of President Trump’s 2017 inauguration.

The rig count has been in a downwards trend for over two years, with companies’ strategies remaining relatively conservative and productivity gains allowing output growth with fewer active rigs. Commodity experts at Standard Chartered have predicted that drilling will remain subdued in 2025, primarily because oil prices remain too low in real terms to justify expansion during a period of significant cost inflation.

Falling profits are likely to override oil companies’ attempts to rapidly ramp up U.S. oil output. Two years ago, the Biden administration urged U.S. companies to increase production in a bid to bring down fuel prices. Back then, oil prices were hovering around $100 per barrel and oil companies were raking in record profits. However, last year witnessed a sharp slowdown in non-OPEC+ supply growth from 2.46 mb/d in 2023 to 0.79 mb/d in 2024, primarily caused by a reduction in U.S. total liquids growth from 1.605 mb/d in 2023 to 734 kb/d in 2024, with low oil prices disincentivizing more drilling. StanChart expects this trend to continue, with U.S. liquids growth expected to clock in at just 367 kb/d in 2025 before slowing down further to 151 kb/d in 2

Over the past five years, oil and gas companies have been returning a bigger chunk of their profits to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks. With oil prices declining over the past two years, these companies have resorted to borrowing more to keep their shareholders happy. Indeed, Bloomberg reported in late October that four of the world’s five oil “supermajors” saw fit to borrow $15 billion to fund share buybacks between July and September. According to a Bloomberg analysis, ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), TotalÉnergies (NYSE:TTE), and BP (NYSE:BP) wouldn’t have enough cash on hand to cover the dividends and share buybacks their investors are demanding, let alone increase their capital expenditure to drill more.

“Borrowing to buy back shares isn’t uncommon in the oil business,” Bloomberg explained. “But a dimming outlook for oil prices next year means the cash shortfall is apt to continue over the longer term,” at a time when investors’ expectations for immediate returns continue.

Changing Dynamics

There are other structural and technical challenges that could limit how quickly the U.S. Shale Patch increases oil production under Trump. According to commodity experts at Standard Chartered, U.S oil production, and particularly unconventional (shale oil) production, has changed significantly from the time Trump first took office in 2017.

StanChart points out that U.S. crude output clocked in at 13.40 million barrels per day (mb/d) in August 2024, an all-time high above the previous record of 3.31 mb/d set in December 2023. U.S. crude production has increased by 4.7 mb/d since the pandemic-era low of May 2020; however, it’s just 0.4 mb/d higher than the pre-pandemic high of November 2019, working out to an annual production growth rate of just 80 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) over this timeframe.

StanChart notes that the dynamics of U.S. shale oil production make long-term supply increases difficult to maintain, noting that the country’s oil production is dominated by a few majors and independent producers, alongside private companies, rather than a national oil company as is often the case with many OPEC producers. These companies have largely left behind their trigger-happy, drill-baby-drill days and adopted strict capital discipline, eschewing rapid production increases in favor of returning more capital to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks. StanChart also points out that extensive M&A activity in the sector has reduced the number of operating companies, changing the landscape from a patchwork of small producer acreages to larger contiguous acreage. This new modus operandi allows for complex drilling and completion techniques, including multi-pad wells with extremely long lateral sections that are able to optimize spacing and associated infrastructure. These drilling and completion efficiency gains have allowed production to continue growing despite a decline in rig count.


StanChart’s views appear to match those of Goldman Sachs’. According to GS, technological and efficiency gains have accounted for virtually all growth by the Texas-New Mexico shale basin since 2020; however, the bank has warned that “the Permian is maturing, and its deteriorating geology will weigh on the production of crude oil down the road.” The Permian rig count has declined nearly 15% from last year’s April high to 309 currently, and is 30% lower than its 2018-2019 average, Goldman Sachs has revealed. Earlier, GS predicted that the Permian rig count will be below 300 by the end of 2025.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com