Wednesday, October 22, 2025

China’s Battery Giants Flood Overseas Markets As Exports Surge 220%

  • After last year’s severe overcapacity slump, Chinese battery firms secured about 200 overseas orders totaling 186 GWh in H1 2025.

  • Beijing’s 250 billion yuan ($32 billion) investment plan aims to add 180 GW of new energy storage capacity by 2027.

  • U.S. utility-scale battery capacity has jumped 15-fold since 2020 to nearly 30,000 MW, driven by a 40% drop in battery prices and rapid renewable deployment.

Last year, China's battery industry average utilization rate cratered to just a third of maximum capacity amid severe overcapacity following years of massive investment and expansion. This put smaller manufacturers under severe pressure and fueled further industry consolidation, while also forcing producers to increasingly seek overseas markets. Luckily, these efforts appear to be paying off: China Energy Storage Alliance has reported that Chinese battery storage forms secured ~200 overseas orders totalling 186 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in the first half of this year, good for a more than 220% year-over-year surge. Not surprisingly, just 5.34 GWh– less than 3% of the total--came from the United States amid hefty tariffs by the Trump administration compared to nearly 60% that came from the Middle East, Europe and Australia.

Back in April, the Trump administration imposed duties of up to 3,521% on solar imports from Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia and Thailand, with the finalized tariffs applying to shipments from China’s solar heavyweights, including JinkoSolar (NYSE:JKS) and Trina Solar. Further, Chinese firms are increasingly diversifying their production bases in a bid to mitigate growing tariff risks from Washington. Currently, Chinese solar manufacturers have installed ~80% of overseas capacity including solar wafers, solar cells and modules in Southeast Asia.

The industry used to say that you either go overseas or exit the game,” said Gao Jifan, chairman of Trina Solar. “Now, due to tariffs, simply exporting isn’t enough; you must also localise production abroad.”

China’s battery storage sector is also benefiting from a rebound by the local markets thanks to policy support by Beijing. China’s National Energy Administration recently unveiled a plan to mobilize 250 billion yuan (~$32 billion) in new investment to build 180 gigawatts of new energy storage capacity by 2027. Lately, Chinese companies that operate in the energy storage space have been posting robust growth as fundamentals continue to improve. During the first half of 2025, 47 of 55 listed companies in the Chinese energy storage sector were profitable. China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (OTCMKTS:CATL), one of the largest li-ion battery manufacturers in the world, reported H1 2025 operating revenue of RMB178.886 billion ($25.15 billion), good for a 7.3% increase year over year while net profit attributable to shareholders clocked in at RMB30.485 billion, up 33.33%. In its interim report, CATL revealed that sustained rapid growth in demand for energy storage cells driven by the global clean energy transition has been driving its impressive performance.

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That said, battery storage expansion is expected to be a global trend: energy research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie has projected that global investment in battery storage will reach approximately $1.2 trillion by 2034. This investment will be needed to support the installation of over 5,900 GW of new wind and solar capacity during that period. The report emphasizes that advanced, grid-forming battery technology is crucial for maintaining grid stability as renewable energy sources become more prevalent.

U.S. Battery Storage Explodes

For years, battery systems have only played a marginal role in U.S. electricity networks, with power utilities focusing more on building out capacity from natural gas plants and renewable energy sources. According to energy data portal Cleanview, five years ago, the United States had 74 times more wind farm capacity and 30 times more solar capacity than battery capacity within its power generation system.

However, steady cost declines coupled with rising energy density levels have encouraged utilities to ramp up their battery installations, with battery storage output now exceeding other power sources in certain power markets. And, it’s boom time for the U.S. utility-scale battery storage market: currently, there are only around 5 times more solar and wind capacity in the country compared to battery capacity, thanks in large part to a 40% decline in battery prices since 2022. Currently, 19 states have installed 100 MW or more of utility-scale battery storage. According to Cleanview, there are just under 30,000 megawatts (MW) of utility battery capacity across the U.S., good for a massive 15-fold increase since 2020.  For some context, the U.S. solar sector has added 84,200 MW over the timeframe, while the wind sector has increased its capacity by just 7,000 MW. Falling costs is the biggest reason for the surge in U.S. battery deployments: according to financial advisory and asset management firm Lazard the levelized cost of electricity  (LCOE) for utility-scale solar farms paired with batteries ranges from $50-$131 per megawatt hour (MWh). This makes the pair competitive with new natural gas peaking plants (LCOE of $47 to $170 per MWh) and even new coal-fired plants with LCOE of $114 per MWh.

According to Lazard's 2025 LCOE+ report, new-build renewable energy power plants are the most competitive form of power generation on an unsubsidized basis (i.e., without tax subsidies). This is highly significant in the current era of unprecedented power demand growth in large part due to the AI boom and clean energy manufacturing. Renewables also stand out as the quickest-to-deploy generation resource, with the solar plus battery combination often boasting far shorter deployment times compared to constructing new natural gas power plants. California is, by far, the national leader in utility-scale battery storage, accounting for ~13,000 MW or about 42% of the national total.  According to the California Energy Commission, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) has installed ~21,000 MW of solar capacity and ~12,400 MW of battery capacity, allowing the state to rely heavily on batteries during peak demand periods.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

New observation method improves outlook for lithium metal battery




Stanford University
Sample holder 

image: 

Stanford researchers placed this sample holder (approximately 1-inch diameter, bottom view) containing an anode after battery operation into the X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy tool for thorough analysis of the anode’s flash-frozen, pristine protective layer at cryogenic temperature.

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Credit: Ajay Ravi



In brief

  • Current techniques for measuring chemical composition and activity in lithium metal battery materials can lead to inaccurate results because the act of measuring changes the materials.
  • Stanford researchers have developed a new measurement technique to avoid this issue.
  • They’ve taken the X-ray analysis process known as X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and added a step: flash freezing the battery cells before exposing them to the X-rays.
  • Using their “cryo-XPS” method, the researchers have gained more accurate insights into battery chemistry and longevity, and hope to use the technique to inform the design of better lithium metal batteries.

In science and everyday life, the act of observing or measuring something sometimes changes the thing being observed or measured. You may have experienced this “observer effect” when you measured the pressure of a tire and some air escaped, changing the tire pressure. In investigations of materials involved in critical chemical reactions, scientists can hit the materials with an X-ray beam to reveal details about composition and activity, but that measurement can cause chemical reactions that change the materials. Such changes may have significantly hampered scientists learning how to improve – among many other things – rechargeable batteries.

To address this, Stanford University researchers have developed a new twist to an X-ray technique. They applied their new approach by observing key battery chemistries, and it left the observed battery materials unchanged and did not introduce additional chemical reactions. In doing so, they have advanced knowledge for developing rechargeable lithium metal batteries. This type of battery packs a lot of energy and can be recharged very quickly, but it short-circuits and fails after recharging a handful of times. The new study, published today in Nature, also could advance the understanding of other types of batteries and many materials unrelated to batteries.

“Most important perhaps, we think other scientists and engineers may solve many chemical reaction mysteries using this new approach,” said a co-senior author on the study, Stacey Bent, the Jagdeep & Roshni Singh Professor of chemical engineering in Stanford’s School of Engineering and of energy science and engineering in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability.

Protective layer

During the first few use/recharge cycles in lithium metal batteries, a protective film forms on the surface of the lithium anode. This protective layer is as small as a billionth of a meter thick, but it is critical to the battery’s performance and durability. This film must allow lithium ions to move back and forth between the opposite electrodes while blocking the negative anode’s electrons from doing so.

Battery researchers have used the X-ray beam technique, known as X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, or XPS, to learn a great deal about this critical protective layer. The standard way of operating an XPS device is at room temperature under ultra-negative pressure, meaning almost no extraneous atoms or molecules float around the observation chamber. Under these conditions, though, the chemical composition of the lithium battery’s protective layer changes and it gets thinner, the new study shows.

Thinking that these changes may obscure problems with lithium batteries, researchers in the study tried flash freezing new battery cells just after the protective layer formed at around -325 Fahrenheit (-200 Celsius). Freezing has proven helpful in studies using similar equipment, but its use with XPS is quite new. The researchers hoped their “cryo-XPS” method might maintain the protective layer in its pristine form through XPS observation at somewhat warmer temperatures, around -165 F.

It did.

 

Stanford researchers placed this sample holder (approximately 1-inch diameter, bottom view) containing an anode after battery operation into the X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy tool for thorough analysis of the anode’s flash-frozen, pristine protective layer at cryogenic temperature. | Ajay Ravi

“By comparing the observations using our method, we identified the changes wrought by XPS observation at room temperature, which could lead to overcoming the challenges of lithium metal batteries and improving other lithium-based batteries,” said the other co-senior author of the study, Yi Cui, the Fortinet Founders Professor of materials science and engineering in the School of Engineering, of photon science at SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, and, like Bent, of energy science and engineering.

“Also, cryo-XPS improves performance-based assessments of different electrolyte chemistries used with lithium anodes, which can help researchers working on several new battery architectures,” said Cui.

New insights

Using both conventional XPS and their frozen method, the researchers measured how well batteries perform using different chemistries for the electrolyte, through which charged particles travel between the positive and negative electrodes during use and, later, recharging. Electrolytes contain salt and solvent, and salt-based chemicals are considered useful in the protective layer, ensuring stability. They found only a moderate correlation between charge retention and salt-based chemicals in the protective layer using conventional XPS. However, when they used cryo-XPS measurements, the correlation was very strong.

“It seems that cryo-XPS delivers more reliable information about which chemical compounds actually improve battery performance,” said Sanzeeda Baig Shuchi, the lead student on the research team and a PhD candidate in chemical engineering.

Among other significant differences between room-temperature XPS and cryo-XPS, the research team learned that conventional XPS readings of battery materials increased the amount of lithium fluoride at the protective layer, a compound that has been associated with improved battery performance.

“This may have sent battery design in some wrong directions, because higher lithium fluoride is thought to increase the number of battery discharge/recharge cycles, but standard XPS exaggerates how much lithium fluoride exists in the protective layer,” said Shuchi.

Another compound linked to better battery performance, lithium oxide, also showed significant differences at room temperature vs. cryo-XPS. Under frozen conditions, high amounts of lithium oxide were found at the protective layer during battery operation with high-performing electrolytes. This did not happen during conventional XPS observations, likely due to chemical reactions caused by conventional XPS. This outcome, oddly, was reversed when low-performing electrolytes were used, where lithium oxide became more prominent at room temperature XPS measurements.

Lithium metal outlook

The development of cryo-XPS has important implications for designing better batteries. Lithium metal batteries, which use metallic lithium anodes instead of the graphite anodes in lithium-ion batteries, promise substantially higher energy density than today’s dominant lithium-ion batteries. However, lithium metal batteries suffer from safety and longevity problems largely related to the anode’s protective layer.

“With more accurate insights on the composition of the lithium anode’s interface, researchers could design electrolytes or even ultrathin coatings that form more stable interfaces,” said Bent. “Knowing which chemicals will actually be present during battery operation is better than characterizing an interface that may not reflect actual conditions.”

This work challenges some existing interpretations of the battery interface, the researchers said, but scientists and engineers can move forward with more confidence in their measurements using cryo-XPS.


For more information

Stacey Bent is also a senior fellow of the Precourt Institute for Energy and former vice provost for graduate education at Stanford. Yi Cui is also the director of the Sustainability Accelerator at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, former director and senior fellow of the Precourt Institute, and senior fellow of the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment. Sanzeeda Baig Shuchi is also a TomKat Center for Sustainable Energy Graduate Fellow for Translational Research.

Other researchers for this study are former Stanford postdoctoral scholar Giulio D’AcuntoPhilaphon Sayavong, PhD ’24; Solomon T. Oyakhire, PhD ’23; PhD candidate Kenzie M. Sanroman Gutierrez; staff scientist Juliet Risner-Jamtgaard; and Il Rok Choi, PhD ’25.

This research was supported by Stanford’s Wallenberg-Bienenstock Foundation Postdoctoral Scholarship Program, the Schmidt Science Fellows program, the U.S. National Science Foundation, and the U.S. Department of Energy. Part of this work was performed at nano@stanford (formerly Stanford Nano Shared Facilities).

This research was also supported by the Precourt Institute’s StorageX Initiative, a Stanford University industrial affiliates program. Stanford industrial affiliates programs are funded by membership fees from companies. View current Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability industrial affiliates programs.

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