Israel’s recognition of the State of Somaliland: Why now?
January 2, 2026
MIDDLE EAST MONITOR
A group of Somalis, carrying Somali flags and chanting slogans against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel, protest Israel’s decision to recognize Somaliland, gathering in Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia, on December 28, 2025. [Abuukar Mohamed Muhidin – Anadolu Agency]
by Tamer Ajrami
On 26 December, Israel took the unprecedented step of officially recognizing Somaliland as an independent state. This decision, ending decades of hesitation, makes Israel the first UN member state to grant legitimacy to the breakaway region. For many observers, this might seem like a distant diplomatic manoeuvre in the Horn of Africa. However, for those of us watching the unfolding genocide in Gaza and the escalating tensions in the Red Sea, this move is not merely diplomatic. But it is a dangerous strategic escalation with grave reflection for Palestine, Yemen, and the entire Arab world.
Everyone is asking: Why now?
Why, after more than 30 years of Somaliland seeking recognition, has Tel Aviv decided to break the international consensus and the African Union’s charter on respecting colonial borders?
To understand the answer, we must look beyond the official statements and into the darker reality of Israel’s post-October 7 strategy.
A new base for aggression
The timing is no coincidence. The ongoing war on Gaza has expanded into a regional confrontation, particularly with the Houthi movement in Yemen effectively blockading Israeli shipping in the Red Sea. Somaliland, with its 740-kilometer coastline on the Gulf of Aden, is located just 300 to 500 kilometers from the Yemeni coast.
By recognizing Somaliland, Israel is not acting out of benevolence toward the Somali people. It is securing a forward operating base. Reports from the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv suggest that Somaliland could serve a role similar to Azerbaijan (a strategic ally on the border of an enemy). From this advantage point, Israel can monitor maritime traffic, gather intelligence information on Yemen, and potentially launch direct strikes. So, Israel can control the Horn of Africa and can turn it into a new theatre of war.
READ: Somalia’s president says Somaliland agreed to resettle Palestinians, host Israeli base for recognition
How is it connected to Gaza?
Perhaps the most alarming motive is the one linked to the ethnic cleansing of Gaza. For months, Israeli intelligence and political figures have floated the concept of “voluntary migration”. It is just a make-up for the forced displacement of Palestinians.
Leaked reports and discussions in Israeli media have indicated that Somaliland’s desperation for international recognition makes it vulnerable to transactional diplomacy. The equation being whispered in diplomatic corridors is chilling: recognition in exchange for accepting Palestinian refugees. While the government in Hargeisa denies this, the very existence of such discussions highlights how the far-right Israeli government views Palestinians not as humans with rights to their land, but as a surplus population to be bartered away to the poorest regions of the world.
So, Israel seeks a displacement by another name and takes Somaliland as a bridge for the plan to come true.
An Israel Unbound
Finally, this move signifies a shift in the very nature of the Zionist state. The Israel that once sought to present itself to the West as a “law-abiding democracy” that respects international norms is gone. It has been replaced by a reckless entity that bombs diplomatic missions, defies the International Court of Justice, and now unilaterally redraws maps in Africa.
Apparently, Israel signals that it no longer cares about diplomatic fallout. This appears in the ignoring of the sovereignty of the Federal Republic of Somalia and in the warnings of nations like Egypt and Turkey. It is willing to destabilize the entire African continent and the Red Sea basin to secure its short-term military goals.
Therefore, the recognition of Somaliland is not a story about African independence. It is a story about the expansion of Israeli military hegemony into the Red Sea and a desperate attempt to find new locations to exile the people of Gaza. We must see this for what it is. Simply, it is a new front in the war against the Palestinians and the stability of the region.
At the end, I want to add that Israel has a decisive reason in this assessment. I mean, Israel itself has changed. It has become more impulsive and aggressive, and less concerned with international law. Consequently, it no longer fears the contradiction in its positions. For example, Israel refuses to recognize Palestine while accepts the recognition of Somaliland.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.
A group of Somalis, carrying Somali flags and chanting slogans against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel, protest Israel’s decision to recognize Somaliland, gathering in Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia, on December 28, 2025. [Abuukar Mohamed Muhidin – Anadolu Agency]
by Tamer Ajrami
On 26 December, Israel took the unprecedented step of officially recognizing Somaliland as an independent state. This decision, ending decades of hesitation, makes Israel the first UN member state to grant legitimacy to the breakaway region. For many observers, this might seem like a distant diplomatic manoeuvre in the Horn of Africa. However, for those of us watching the unfolding genocide in Gaza and the escalating tensions in the Red Sea, this move is not merely diplomatic. But it is a dangerous strategic escalation with grave reflection for Palestine, Yemen, and the entire Arab world.
Everyone is asking: Why now?
Why, after more than 30 years of Somaliland seeking recognition, has Tel Aviv decided to break the international consensus and the African Union’s charter on respecting colonial borders?
To understand the answer, we must look beyond the official statements and into the darker reality of Israel’s post-October 7 strategy.
A new base for aggression
The timing is no coincidence. The ongoing war on Gaza has expanded into a regional confrontation, particularly with the Houthi movement in Yemen effectively blockading Israeli shipping in the Red Sea. Somaliland, with its 740-kilometer coastline on the Gulf of Aden, is located just 300 to 500 kilometers from the Yemeni coast.
By recognizing Somaliland, Israel is not acting out of benevolence toward the Somali people. It is securing a forward operating base. Reports from the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv suggest that Somaliland could serve a role similar to Azerbaijan (a strategic ally on the border of an enemy). From this advantage point, Israel can monitor maritime traffic, gather intelligence information on Yemen, and potentially launch direct strikes. So, Israel can control the Horn of Africa and can turn it into a new theatre of war.
READ: Somalia’s president says Somaliland agreed to resettle Palestinians, host Israeli base for recognition
How is it connected to Gaza?
Perhaps the most alarming motive is the one linked to the ethnic cleansing of Gaza. For months, Israeli intelligence and political figures have floated the concept of “voluntary migration”. It is just a make-up for the forced displacement of Palestinians.
Leaked reports and discussions in Israeli media have indicated that Somaliland’s desperation for international recognition makes it vulnerable to transactional diplomacy. The equation being whispered in diplomatic corridors is chilling: recognition in exchange for accepting Palestinian refugees. While the government in Hargeisa denies this, the very existence of such discussions highlights how the far-right Israeli government views Palestinians not as humans with rights to their land, but as a surplus population to be bartered away to the poorest regions of the world.
So, Israel seeks a displacement by another name and takes Somaliland as a bridge for the plan to come true.
An Israel Unbound
Finally, this move signifies a shift in the very nature of the Zionist state. The Israel that once sought to present itself to the West as a “law-abiding democracy” that respects international norms is gone. It has been replaced by a reckless entity that bombs diplomatic missions, defies the International Court of Justice, and now unilaterally redraws maps in Africa.
Apparently, Israel signals that it no longer cares about diplomatic fallout. This appears in the ignoring of the sovereignty of the Federal Republic of Somalia and in the warnings of nations like Egypt and Turkey. It is willing to destabilize the entire African continent and the Red Sea basin to secure its short-term military goals.
Therefore, the recognition of Somaliland is not a story about African independence. It is a story about the expansion of Israeli military hegemony into the Red Sea and a desperate attempt to find new locations to exile the people of Gaza. We must see this for what it is. Simply, it is a new front in the war against the Palestinians and the stability of the region.
At the end, I want to add that Israel has a decisive reason in this assessment. I mean, Israel itself has changed. It has become more impulsive and aggressive, and less concerned with international law. Consequently, it no longer fears the contradiction in its positions. For example, Israel refuses to recognize Palestine while accepts the recognition of Somaliland.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.
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