Thursday, September 14, 2006

Polski Ogorki

Which is a Polish pickle. And Poland announced it will provide extra troops to NATO for Afghanistan getting itself into a pickle of a predicament.....but before everyone starts cheering read on....

Poland will send at least 900 more troops to Afghanistan by early next year, the defense minister announced, but NATO officials said the deployment was part of a planned force rotation and would not alleviate the alliance's need for more troops.

Sigh, looks like more Canadian troops will have to pick up the slack.
All in favour sign up now.


Also See:

NATO

Afghanistan





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200 Taliban

I wonder if the two hundred Taliban NATO claims to have killed were these guys.....

US Forces Have Taliban Funeral In Sights - Hold Fire


Also See:

NATO

Afghanistan





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Life Is A Video Game


"Meet The Dawson College Shooter"

"Life is a video game, you've got to die sometime."

That sums it up...we are all becoming victims of Doom and other first person shooter games.

And this emotional plague is only going to spread wider as these games move to cellphones and IPods....
Nokia, EA team up to offer games

And those of you who think the emotional plague inherent in violent video games has no impact well remember Columbine, they practiced with first person shooters.

'Columbine' Game Was Gunman's Favorite



The mesmerizing impact of living in a video game is an expression
of alienation
in modern atomistic society.

I am arguing that children and teenagers are spending much of their time in simulations, rather than in the natural or “real” world. It is an argument, which if true, has serious implications for not only our children, but also for the future of our society. Essentially, I believe that the unreal, the simulation, the simulacra has been substituted for the real in the lives of our children. This occurs at many different levels: in the video games that are so much a part of the experience of contemporary childhood; in the shopping malls and “commercial civic spaces” where our children spend so much of their time; in television programs, advertisements and movies; in the theme parks where we vacation; in the online chat rooms and discussion programs through which we communicate and exchange information; and finally, in the images of beauty and sexuality that run as a powerful undercurrent through much of our culture and the lives of our children.
Let me begin by reflecting a bit on the information included on the recently released videotapes made by Eric Harris and Dylan Kleibold shortly before the Columbine High School shootings last year.
It is very clear that Harris and Klebold wanted to tell the world a story whose script they seem to have learned through the entertainment media—particularly from ultra-violent films and video games. Harris tells his story in front of a video camera with a bottle of Jack Daniels and a sawed-off shotgun cradledin his lap
.

Eugene F. Provenzo, Jr. Professor School of Education University of Miami


The result is not a mass cultural phenomena (each case like Dawson or Columbine appears isolated in itself ) which allows proponents of gaming to dismiss criticism. Rather it is an individual who lives in their game and acts out in mass culture. Something the defenders of gaming cannot account for. Even though they know full well these games originated in the military and are used for training the armed forces.

Those who would say that this is not so use statstical data on crime rates in relation to violent video games to dismiss the critics.

The North American research seems somewhat oblivious to the (mostly European) social science research on media effects that suggests the importance of particular context in explaining violent behaviour;

The reality is that those susceptible to the emotional plague will succumb to living these games out in reality.
This video computer simulacrum, as Baudrillard calls it, becomes their real life.

Canada Gunman Blogged on Violence, Murder

On a Web site filled with obscenities and hatred for authority, Gill posted a log and about 50 pictures of himself, many of them posing with a semi-automatic rifle and wearing a long black trenchcoat and boots.

In rambling and angry blog entries, using the identification fatality666, Gill raved about video games involving shooting, and said "I love guns. . . . I really do. The great equalizer. . . . wouldn't you say?"

His log entries often evoked scenes of random shootings. In one, predictive of the drizzly weather Wednesday when the shootings occurred, he wrote, "The disgusting human creatures scream in panic and run in all directions, taking with them the lies and deceptions. The Death Night gazes at the humans with an empty stare, as they knock each other down in a mad dash to safety. He wishes to slaughter them as they flee. . . ."

Kimveer Gill
A picture from Kimveer Gill's Blog



In the psychological system of Wilhelm Reich, the "emotional plague" exists as a sort of mental disease which spreads throughout societies whose members are genitally blocked, i.e., incapable of genuine, healthy sexual love or expression. Hating life, creativity and freedom, and terrified that their own frustrated drives could explode uncontrollably at the slightest provocation, victims of the "emotional plague" cope by seeking to control, punish, and censor others who are healthy.Emotional Plague


We see that the compass of the emotional plague coincides approximately with the broad compass of social abuse, which has always been and still is combatted by every social freedom movement. With some qualifications, it can be said that the sphere of the emotional plague coincides with that of “political reaction” and perhaps even with the principle of politics in general. This would hold true, however, only if the basic principle of all politics, namely thirst for power and special prerogatives, were carried over into those spheres of life which we do not think of as political in the usual sense of the word.

The Emotional Plague by Wilhelm Reich Originally appeared as Chapter 16 of Reich’s book ‘Character Analysis’

the emotional plague
A term initially proposed by Wilhelm Reich for the psychological syndrome
marked by irrational insistence on beliefs and ideas that depend on dissociation
of mind from body. Reich also refered to it as "the neurotic character in destructive
action on the social scene"
. Though this dissociation has plagued humanity for many
centuries, it wasn’t until the “The Age of Reason” that the abstract intellect was
exalted to god-like status with Newton’s theories and Descartes’ “Meditations”.
The current era of emotional plague has accelerated via the massive collective
projection of physical, emotional and sexual energy into mental, or virtual,
mediums such as the internet, VR technology, video games, mass media
advertising, and television. If emotional plague is caused by disassociating
mind from body, its confusion can be easily maintained by mistaking
the virtual for the real, by taking an image or an idea of a reality
for the reality itself; eating the menu instead of the meal, etc.

paratheatre manifesto, pt. 1


"The emotional plague is a chronic biopathy of the organism. It made an inroad into human society with the first mass suppression of genital sexuality; it became an endemic disease, which has been tormenting people the world over for thousands of years. [...] Epidemic outbreaks of emotional plague became manifest in widespread and violent breakthroughs of sadism and criminality, on a small and large scale. One such outbreak was the Catholic Inquisition of the Middle Ages; the international fascism of the 20th century is another.
If we do not look upon the emotional plague as an illness in the strict sense of the word, we would run the risk of mobilizing the police against it, instead of medicine and education. The nature of the emotional plague necessitates police force, and this is how it is spread. It does indeed represent a grave threat to life, but one that will never be eliminated by the police force.
[...]The ascetic, plague-ridden individual uses ethical odes to justify his sexual debility. The justification has nothing to do with the manner in which he lives, which is there before the justification. The healthy person will not want to impose his way of life on anyone but he will cure and he will help others when he is asked and when he is capable. [...] Thus, it is not surprising that truthfulness and straightforwardness, though highly extolled modes of behavior, are rarely encountered in human intercourse. [...] The fact that they are not, that they are looked upon with astonishment, that truthful and straightforward men and women are considered freaks, a bit 'touched in the head', all this cannot be explained on the basis of the ruling cultural ideology...we must turn to our knowledge of the organized emotional plague.
It cannot be assumed that any freedom movement will have any chance of achieving its goals if it does not sharply and clearly confront the organized emotional plague with truthfulness."
Character Analysis
Wilhelm Reich
Noonday Press 1972



Also See

Chris McKinstry

When AI commits suicide

Make Friends and Kill Yourself



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Last.fm


I am using it right now. Which is a learning curve. But when I get it working, it's great. Commercial free music, and interactive community and good quality sound.



Last.fm - The Social Music RevolutionAn online radio station for sharing and streaming music. Every user builds his/her own online record collection and taste profile, and shares their musical ...

You get your own online music profile that you can fill up with the music you like. This information is used to create a personal radio station and to find users who are similar to you. Last.fm can even play you new artists and songs you might like. It's addictive, it's growing, it's free, it's music.

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BlogToons

Found at News Trolls this new Blog Cartoon service. Yep add blog humour to your blog.

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Of course those that hate this site because of its loading time (which of course decreases as you visit cause your puter keeps all dem cookies and things in its memory) and its popups (easily avoided using anti-pop up software via Firefox, Google, Yahoo, etc.) will love the fact I have added this....




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Wednesday, September 13, 2006

US Housing Market Crash


When will the tsunami of foreclosures hit?

With millions of adjustable-rate mortgages about to reset this fall, experts expect a wave of foreclosures by Americans in every income bracket. Here's why they could soar in late 2006 and beyond.

Those easy-mortgage chickens are coming home to roost.

This fall the adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) that millions of Americans took out during the recent housing boom will be reset, and many homeowners will see their monthly mortgage payments shoot up by as much as 20%. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, of all mortgages financed in 2005, 36% were ARMs -- the highest ever.

National foreclosures up 24%

Property foreclosures nationwide increased 24 percent in August from the previous month and 53 percent from a year ago, marking the highest rate so far this year, a foreclosure service reported today.

A total of 115,292 properties entered some stage of foreclosure during the month, according to a report from RealtyTrac. The report also shows a national foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure filing for every 1,003 U.S. households, the second-highest monthly foreclosure rate reported year to date.

This report is much bleaker than numbers reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association today. In a survey of more than 42.5 million loans nationwide, homeowners appeared to be keeping up with their mortgage payments.

What will it mean for Canada. Well for one thing its going to kick the crap out of Softwood lumber exports. Leaving those who take Harpers deal wth cash in hand but no market to export to. All those jobs the BQ is counting on...gone...poof.

As the lumber bosses take their cash and run. Canadian Banks operating in the U.S. will take loan losses. The Canadian dollar will rise against the American dollar and our manufacturing sector will cry the blues, more layoffs.


Housing prices have finally outrun incomes."

Runaway real estate prices, which had been growing in double digits throughout much of the country, are now pricing potential homeowners right out of the market. The ability of Americans to afford a home is the worst it's been in two decades, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The past year has been rough on consumers. First, mortgage rates began to rise. Then, there was the jolt from sharply higher energy prices. And now the apparent end of the long real estate boom is at hand. It's all combined to make Americans feeling distinctly poorer, and less confident. Mirroring other recent surveys, the U.S. Conference Board reported last week that its consumer confidence index suffered its biggest one-month drop in August since the devastation of hurricane Katrina a year ago.

Think it all doesn't matter to you? Think again. For nearly a decade now, the United States has been the economic driver for much of the world -- Canada included. The United States has been sucking up excess savings and consuming everything in sight, from cars to homes and everything that goes in them.

"It's hard to imagine that a U.S.-centric global economy wouldn't be at risk in the aftermath of a bursting of the U.S. housing bubble," warned Morgan Stanley chief economist Stephen Roach, one of Wall Street's most outspoken worrywarts.

"The non-U.S. world remains heavily reliant on selling exports to wealth-dependent American consumers. As the United States comes to grips with the aftershocks of another post-bubble shakeout, so too must the rest of the world."

As he put it: "If the American consumer sneezes, countries in both the developed and the developing world could easily catch a cold."

Globally this is a major consumer market crash, not seen since the crash of 1984 when the FIRE market in Americas cities, and around the world crashed. Australia is reporting record housing foreclosures.

House-price inflation is faster than a year ago in roughly half of the 20 countries we track... Apart from America, only Spain, Hong Kong and South Africa have seen big slowdowns. In ten of the countries, prices are rising at double-digit rates, compared with only seven countries last year. European housing markets—notably Denmark, Belgium, Ireland, France and Sweden—now dominate the top of the league. Anecdotal evidence suggests that even the German market is starting to wake up after more than a decade of flat or falling prices... Calculations by The Economist show that in Britain and Australia the ratios of prices to rents are respectively 55% and 70% above the long-term average... By the same gauge property is “overvalued” by 50% in America."

Canadas housing market is cooling off too. And in hot Alberta, the boom bubble could burst with ominous results despite high wages. The market is overpriced, it is inflationary and it means well paid workers are overextending their personal debt. Once again putting conditions on us that we saw in 1984 when the Oil Boom bottomed out. Despite a labour shortage in no way are average wages keeping up with home costs.

Central Bank Warns Over [Canadian] House Prices (Globe and Mail, September 7th): "the central bank said yesterday that one of the key risks to the Canadian economy is that housing prices will continue to climb steeply here, exerting inflationary pressure, even as the entire U.S. economy is dragged down by its crumbling real estate market. The Bank of Canada surprised no one and left its key interest rate unchanged yesterday... Average home prices are expected to reach an all-time high in 2006, although the increase from 2005 is not as big a leap as the year before, said Gregory Klump, chief economist of the Canadian Real Estate Association. He expects average prices to rise 6.1 per cent in 2006 and 4.7 per cent in 2007. The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp. is forecasting a 12-per-cent increase in housing prices this year and 6.4 per cent in 2007."

The American economy will be a basket case, having to take out more loans to offset the crash in consumer spending which is the only thing holding up Wall Street. While Wall Street has made money off companies that layoff workers, that too will come to bite them in the ass.

WHEN THERE ARE MORE "home for sale" than "help wanted" signs, the U.S. economy may be mired in recession.

Most gauges are confirming that the housing market has hit the brakes and may be in a tailspin. Existing-home sales dropped a more-than-expected 4 percent in July and the number of unsold houses is the largest since 1993. New-home sales fell 22 percent from the same month last year. And construction spending fell the most in five years.

While higher mortgage rates and affordability concerns have been the bogeymen in the current U.S. housing decline, little attention has been paid to the combined demons of unemployment and adjustable-rate mortgages.

WSJ Economist Survey -- Housing Slowdown to Continue; Recession a Possibility (Eli Hoffman in Seeking Alpha, September 8th): "In a recent survey of 52 economists, most believe cooling in the housing market will extend into next year. Housing forecasts: Many predict no change, or even a decline, in home prices next year. The average prediction for next year was a 0.43% increase in housing prices, well below the 2.7% forecasted CPI inflation measure. The last time housing trailed inflation was in 1996."

Risk of U.S. Recession Growing: HSBC (Reuters, September 8th): "Investment bank HSBC has revised downward its forecast for 2007 economic growth and cautioned that the risk of an outright recession is growing as a retreat in housing threatens household balance sheets... They now see gross domestic product expanding just 1.9 percent next year, down from an earlier forecast of 2.6 percent and from an expected rate of growth around 3.5 percent for 2006."

Like his daddy before him, George will have to either raise taxes or take out more loans from China. Either way just in time for the November election. Republicans lose both houses.

The Return of Saving
The U.S. savings rate has been falling for decades. But that downward trend will likely soon be reversed, as factors such as rising mortgage interest rates force Americans to start saving more. The change will ultimately be for the better, but in the short term it could cause serious problems for the United States and its trading partners unless they start preparing immediately.



Also See:

Housing Bubble


Economy



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Yes It Is Escalation

The deployment of the Leopard Tanks and the mobilization of the Vandoos is an escalation of Canada's mission in Afghanistan. Even those in the Pro-War camp have come to this conclusion. As The Amazing Wonderdog writes:

Nevertheless, one point must be granted the hand-wringers: this does, indeed, reflect a serious escalation in Afghanistan. That's not because, as some have suggested, we're escalating the conflict by sending tanks. On the contrary: we're sending tanks because the conflict has escalated.

The sign of that escalation is the events of the past few weeks, culminating in the battle for control of the Panjawli district. The Taliban, for whatever reason, are now behaving not as an insurgent force, but as a conventional ground force. Their confidence, as recent events have shown, is misplaced, but that's beside the point. The Taliban will be beaten every time they try to stand and fight, and will eventually retreat back into "conventional" insurgent tactics, but this will take time. And all the while, the clock is ticking on hearts and minds.

What the deployment of Leos means is that it's time to ask some serious questions. Not partisan questions, but simple questions about what we're doing. Beginning with, what specific reconstruction goals will we achieve, on what schedule? What is, in short, the new plan?


Uh you can't use tanks for reconstruction. Anymore than you can use bulldozers as Israel has shown. The new plan is the same as the old plan.

Also See:


Afghanistan





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