DOOMED! I SAY! WE ARE ALL DOOMED!
While we fixate on coronavirus, Earth is hurtling towards a catastrophe worse than the dinosaur extinction

Published April 10, 2020 By The Conversation


At several points in the history of our planet, increasing amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have caused extreme global warming, prompting the majority of species on Earth to die out.

In the past, these events were triggered by a huge volcanic eruption or asteroid impact. Now, Earth is heading for another mass extinction – and human activity is to blame.

I am an Earth and Paleo-climate scientist and have researched the relationships between asteroid impacts, volcanism, climate changes and mass extinctions of species.

Read more:
Here’s what the coronavirus pandemic can teach us about tackling climate change

My research suggests the current growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions is faster than those which triggered two previous mass extinctions, including the event that wiped out the dinosaurs.

The world’s gaze may be focused on COVID-19 right now. But the risks to nature from human-made global warming – and the imperative to act – remain clear.

The current rate of CO2 emissions is a major event in the recorded history of Earth.

EPA

Past mass extinctions

Many species can adapt to slow, or even moderate, environmental changes. But Earth’s history shows that extreme shifts in the climate can cause many species to become extinct.

For example, about 66 million years ago an asteroid hit Earth. The subsequent smashed rocks and widespread fires released massive amounts of carbon dioxide over about 10,000 years. Global temperatures soared, sea levels rose and oceans became acidic. About 80% of species, including the dinosaurs, were wiped out.

And about 55 million years ago, global temperatures spiked again, over 100,000 years or so. The cause of this event, known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, is not entirely clear. One theory, known as the “methane burp” hypothesis, posits that a massive volcanic eruption triggered the sudden release of methane from ocean sediments, making oceans more acidic and killing off many species.

So is life on Earth now headed for the same fate?

Comparing greenhouse gas levels

Before industrial times began at the end of the 18th century, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere sat at around 300 parts per million. This means that for every one million molecules of gas in the atmosphere, 300 were carbon dioxide.

In February this year, atmospheric carbon dioxide reached 414.1 parts per million. Total greenhouse gas level – carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide combined – reached almost 500 parts per million of carbon dioxide-equivalent

Author provided/The Conversation, CC BY-ND

Carbon dioxide is now pouring into the atmosphere at a rate of two to three parts per million each year.

Using carbon records stored in fossils and organic matter, I have determined that current carbon emissions constitute an extreme event in the recorded history of Earth.

My research has demonstrated that annual carbon dioxide emissions are now faster than after both the asteroid impact that eradicated the dinosaurs (about 0.18 parts per million CO2 per year), and the thermal maximum 55 million years ago (about 0.11 parts per million CO2 per year).

An asteroid wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago.
Shutterstock

The next mass extinction has begun

Current atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are not yet at the levels seen 55 million and 65 million years ago. But the massive influx of carbon dioxide means the climate is changing faster than many plant and animal species can adapt.

A major United Nations report released last year warned around one million animal and plant species were threatened with extinction. Climate change was listed as one of five key drivers.

The report said the distributions of 47% of land-based flightless mammals, and almost 25% of threatened birds, may already have been negatively affected by climate change.

Read more:
Curious Kids: What effect did the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs have on plants and trees?

Many researchers fear the climate system is approaching a tipping point – a threshold beyond which rapid and irreversible changes will occur. This will create a cascade of devastating effects.

There are already signs tipping points have been reached. For example, rising Arctic temperatures have led to major ice melt, and weakened the Arctic jet stream – a powerful band of westerly winds.

A diagram showing the weakening Arctic jet stream, and subsequent movements of warm and cold air. NASA

This allows north-moving warm air to cross the polar boundary, and cold fronts emanating from the poles to intrude south into Siberia, Europe and Canada.

A shift in climate zones is also causing the tropics to expand and migrate toward the poles, at a rate of about 56 to 111 kilometres per decade. The tracks of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones are likewise shifting toward the poles. Australia is highly vulnerable to this shift.

Uncharted future climate territory

Research released in 2016 showed just what a massive impact humans are having on the planet. It said while the Earth might naturally have entered the next ice age in about 20,000 years’ time, the heating produced by carbon dioxide would result in a period of super-tropical conditions, delaying the next ice age to about 50,000 years from now.

During this period, chaotic high-energy stormy conditions would prevail over much of the Earth. My research suggests humans are likely to survive best in sub-polar regions and sheltered mountain valleys, where cooler conditions would allow flora and fauna to persist.

Earth’s next mass extinction is avoidable – if carbon dioxide emissions are dramatically curbed and we develop and deploy technologies to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. But on the current trajectory, human activity threatens to make large parts of the Earth uninhabitable – a planetary tragedy of our own making.

Read more:
Anatomy of a heatwave: how Antarctica recorded a 20.75°C day last month


Andrew Glikson, Earth and paleo-climate scientist, Australian National University


This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The election of 1940 and the might-have been presidential candidates that make one shudder


Published April 10, 2020 By History News Network


The Presidential Election of 1940 is well remembered as being one of the most crucial elections in American history, and rightfully.

America was facing the growing threat of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan, as World War II raged all over the globe. Meanwhile, in America, the isolationist crusade, as the central domestic controversy raging in America, was in full swing, as the America First Committee was having a dramatic effect on the nation, with many leading public figures of all political stripes, vehemently demanding that America stay out of the war, best personified by the organization’s most influential spokesman, famous aviator Charles Lindbergh.

So the issue of staying out of war was the focus of the campaign, with the issue of a third term for President Franklin D. Roosevelt also promoting furious debate, as FDR pledged that he had no intentions of taking America to war, but his isolationist opponents convinced that his ultimate purpose was to enter the war on the side of Great Britain.

Franklin D. Roosevelt went on to win a substantial victory over the only Presidential nominee in American history to have no government experience, utilities executive Wendell Willkie of Indiana, who “conquered” the Republican National Convention with his soaring oratory. Willkie was very appealing to many as an “outsider”, and his charisma converted many people, but at the end, he lost out, but became a supporter of the World War II war effort, wishing to aid Great Britain even as a candidate, antagonizing the party that had nominated him for the White House. His cooperating with FDR and defying many in the Republican Party, infuriated party leaders who complained that this former Democrat was “flip flopping” on an issue, isolationism, which had united the Republican Party against the President. By supporting FDR on aid to Great Britain, Willkie took away the key issue of the Republican Party at the time, for which they never forgave him,

It seems clear the Willkie would have followed a similar pattern as FDR did in 1941 on aid to Great Britain, through Lend Lease, and would have pursued the war effort in similar fashion, and Willkie acted as an informal foreign envoy for the President during the war. By 1944, with the assumption that FDR would not seek a fourth term, Willkie made an attempt to win the Republican nomination, but bowed out of the race before the Republican National Convention.

Willkie’s role in history is significant for aiding FDR in the debates and strategy for America in World War II, but history also tells something not generally recognized. Willkie was only 52 in 1944, but he was in poor health, due to bad eating habits, incessant smoking, and heavy drinking, all of which went unreported. In October, he suffered a series of heart attacks, and died, so had he been the GOP nominee that year, he would not have made it alive to the election, unprecedented in American history.

But even more amazing is that this means that had Willkie won in 1940 over FDR, he would have died in office at a crucial moment when D Day had occurred, but the Battle of the Bulge had not yet happened. There was yet no certainty that America would prevail on the European or Asian war fronts. And one might say, well, his Vice President would have succeeded him, BUT his running mate in 1940, Oregon Senator Charles McNary, Senate Minority Leader throughout the New Deal years, actually had died eight months earlier in February, 1944, succumbing to a brain tumor which had been a problem for a year before his death.

So that means for the only time in American history, the potential President and Vice President in the Presidential Election of 1940 would both have died in office, leaving the Presidency to whoever would have been Secretary of State, under the Presidential Succession Law of 1886!

The whole history of World War II MIGHT have been very different, and certainly much more complicated by such a scenario. But ironically, now as we look back, we realize that FDR was dying, but made it through the Presidential Election of 1944, unwilling to retire but making the decision to choose Harry Truman to replace Henry A. Wallace as Vice President, itself a turning point in American history with massive long term ramifications!

So the 1940 Presidential Election had much more impact than most historians have actually recognized, and could be argued to be among the top five Presidential elections in historical impact, joining those in 1860, 1932, 2000, and 2008!




Ronald L. Feinman, Author, “Assassinations, Threats, And The American Presidency: From Andrew Jackson To Barack Obama,” Rowman Littlefield Publishers, August 2015.




Enjoy good journalis

Trump holds support of political base in virus-prone states

(Reuters) - Earl Kerr, a 57-year-old electrical contractor in Jacksonville, Florida, says he fears for his 80-year-old mother, who entered an assisted living facility just before the coronavirus pandemic hit the United States. And he says he worries that the tanking economy will sink his small business.


But he has faith in U.S. President Donald Trump to handle the crisis. He’s heard the widespread criticism that Trump initially didn’t take the pandemic seriously, that his administration failed to procure vital medical supplies and left overwhelmed states to fend for themselves. Kerr has a different take.

“He’s not God. He can’t foresee the future or see that the virus can do this or that,” said Kerr, who voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to again in November. “He’s doing the best he can with the information that he gets.”

Continued support from voters like Kerr could prove critical to Trump’s re-election bid - especially because the regions where the president has drawn support often overlap with those most vulnerable to the pandemic, a Reuters analysis shows. The analysis found one in five of Trump’s 2016 voters live in areas where health and economic factors heighten their risks from the coronavirus. Kerr is among 30 voters interviewed by Reuters who live in such at-risk metropolitan areas in Florida, Ohio and West Virginia and who voted for Trump in 2016 or support him now.

The interviews, along with the latest Reuters/Ipsos polling data, show stalwart support among Trump’s political base amid the worst public health crisis in a century, with a rising U.S. death toll that has now surpassed 12,700, predictions of an economic depression, and the U.S. stock market’s biggest first-quarter loss in history. But neither has Trump enjoyed the dramatic gains in popularity that past presidents have sometimes seen during crises, when patriotism often runs high - illustrating a hardening of the bitter partisanship that has been the hallmark of his administration.

Before the pandemic, the president had trumpeted a soaring economy and record-low unemployment to woo the moderate and independent voters he needs to win the election - especially in key battleground states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida. That pitch evaporated in the pandemic, making perceptions of his emergency response all the more crucial. Recent polls in Florida and Wisconsin showed Trump trailing Biden by between three and six points.

Perceptions of crisis response have had a pivotal impact on the popularity of past presidents. The experience of George W. Bush - the last Republican president, also a polarizing figure - provides a vivid example of partisanship breaking down in some of the nation’s darkest times. Bush’s approval rating soared to more than 90% after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, according to Gallup polling. But that figure fell below 40% after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and bottomed out at 25% during the 2008 financial crisis, helping Democrat Barack Obama beat Republican challenger John McCain in that year’s election.

Trump’s approval rating, by contrast, has remained steady throughout his presidency and has ranged between 40% and 44% since the onset of the U.S. coronavirus crisis in early March, buoyed by the support of 85% of Republicans, according to the latest April 6-7 Reuters/Ipsos poll. That job rating makes November’s election highly competitive, experts say, though the political landscape could shift as the pandemic continues to claim lives and jobs. (For a graphic of the poll results, see reut.rs/39TtJm4)


Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh said voters continue to support the president in part because he acted early, in late January, to restrict travel from China and appoint a coronavirus task force. “He also has an optimistic view of America and wants to get us moving as soon as it is safe, while also listening to the medical experts,” Murtaugh said.

The condemnation of Trump’s response is just as overwhelming among Democrats, nearly 89% of whom disapprove of his job performance, little changed from pre-crisis levels, the poll showed. Independents remain split, with 53% disapproving of the president’s performance and 42% approving.

Trump trails Joe Biden, the Democratic front-runner, even with the publicity advantage Trump now enjoys as he appears in daily briefings while Biden has isolated himself from the disease in his Delaware home, issuing little-noticed commentary. Registered voters supported Biden by 43% to 37%, according to the April 6-7 poll.

Kyle Kondik, a University of Virginia political analyst, said the hyper-partisan divide over Trump limits both his political upside and his downside in the crisis.

“People who predict this president will suffer long-term approval dips have been wrong throughout his presidency,” he said.

GRAPHIC: Reuters/Ipsos poll: Trump's approval ratings among Republicans, Democrats - here

‘IT’S NOT HIS FAULT’

Nearly all the Trump supporters interviewed by Reuters said the media and Democrats are unfairly blaming him for a problem that no one could have predicted.

Several still likened the new coronavirus to a seasonal flu - echoing Trump comments early in the crisis - even after the president’s own characterization of the outbreak had changed and his advisers said this virus is 10 times more fatal. The voters interviewed lauded Trump for the $2.2 trillion rescue package passed by Congress. They believe the pandemic’s economic fall-out means that the country needs Trump - a businessman - more than ever to steer it out of doldrums.

Many said he’s doing the best possible job in an impossible situation.

“It’s not his fault that this happened,” Barbara Raccina, 76, of Jacksonville Beach, Florida, who voted for Trump in 2016 and will do so again in November. “I think he’s trying to help as much as he can. The rest is up to us to stay indoors.”

Raccina and the other voters interviewed live in areas that supported Trump in 2016 and are now especially vulnerable to the pandemic. The Reuters analysis identified the areas through data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Reuters examined the percentage of people who smoke, have asthma or other conditions that can raise the risk of dying from COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. The analysis also factored in economic data including unemployment and the percentage of the local workers in retail, who are likely to lose their paychecks in the pandemic as stores close.

John O’Neill, 61, lives in one of those vulnerable regions - Middletown, Ohio, a metropolitan area Trump won with 56% of the vote in 2016. Middletown has among the nation’s highest percentage of people who smoke, have the lung disease COPD, or have heart conditions, all thought to make COVID-19 more dangerous.

Currently unemployed, O’Neill hopes to find work in a warehouse - a setting with potentially high virus exposure - and has been diagnosed with COPD. He said he’s not concerned about the virus.

“We have 10,000 people die each year of the flu,” he said, “and they don’t shut businesses down.”

O’Neill said he takes comfort from the medical experts advising Trump, such as Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease official, who appears alongside the president at televised briefings. Fauci has become something of a cult hero - often praised by commentators with media outlets the president blasts as liberal-leaning because Fauci has publicly contradicted Trump’s assurances that the pandemic was under control.

O’Neill views Fauci as one of the president’s trusted advisors.


“If Fauci and them are telling him, ‘No, we shouldn’t be doing this,’ I’m sure Trump will listen to them,” he said.

GRAPHIC: Reuters/Ipsos poll: Who do you trust on COVID-19? Trump, governors, CDC? - here

‘TRYING TO GIVE US HOPE’

With the crisis still in its early days, Trump’s supporters are mindful of the risk that supporters’ confidence in his crisis response could fade if death tolls mount and stocks continue to tumble.

None of the voters who spoke to Reuters have yet lost a family member to the virus. Compared to other parts of the United States, there have been few confirmed cases in the parts of Florida, Ohio, and West Virginia that Reuters examined, in part because fewer tests are being taken in those areas.

Out of the 30 Trump voters, Reuters found only one whose support has been shaken by the president’s pandemic response - a registered Republican in Cincinnati in his 30s, who asked not to be identified.

After the first U.S. case was reported in January, Trump repeatedly insisted it was nothing to worry about and would disappear “like a miracle.” As recently as late March, Trump suggested scaling back coronavirus restrictions by Easter to revive the economy, before eventually extending social distancing guidelines through April.

The Cincinnati voter said he is considering voting for Biden in November.

Another voter who supported Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016, however, said she will back Trump this time. Amy Frasure, 32, of southern Ohio’s Lawrence County, runs an advertising agency across the border in West Virginia. She said it makes sense that Trump has provided a more upbeat assessment than state governors, who have to raise the alarm to effectively deal with public health and economic disasters on the front lines.


Trump’s job, she said, is “to make us more comfortable with the fact that there’s something crazy going on.”

Some of those who continue to support Trump said the president could have taken a more serious tone on the pandemic.

“It bothers me a little when (Trump) says everyone should be back to work by Easter, business booming, things like that,” said Mary Cogan, 52, vice-chair of the Republican Party in Lawrence County. “But then... I think he is probably just trying to give our nation hope.”

Cogan, who called Trump’s overall crisis response “awesome,” said every local Republican she knows remains steadfast in their Trump support. She expects the county, where 70% of voters supported Trump in 2016, to back him again.

“He will reign here in Lawrence County,” she said.

Bill would remove U.S. troops from Saudi Arabia in 30 days

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A Republican U.S. senator introduced legislation on Thursday to remove American troops from Saudi Arabia, adding pressure on the kingdom to tighten its oil taps to reverse the crude price drop that has hurt domestic energy companies.

The legislation from Senator Bill Cassidy, of oil-producing Louisiana, would remove U.S. troops 30 days after enactment, a full month faster than similar legislation introduced by two other Republican senators in March.

Cassidy introduced the bill as OPEC+, a production group including Saudi Arabia and others in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, closed in on a deal to slash oil output by a record amount of about 15 million barrels, or 15% of global production.

The spread of the coronavirus has crushed crude demand at the same time that Saudi Arabia and Russia have pumped oil flat- out in a race for market share, pushing prices to 18-year lows.

The extra oil from Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, has made it impossible for energy companies in the United States, the world’s top oil and gas producer, to compete, Cassidy said.

“Withdrawing troops placed to protect others recognizes that friendship and support is a two-way street,” he said.

Cassidy’s bill faces an uphill battle and would have to pass the Senate, the House of Representatives and be signed by President Donald Trump to become law. Still, it was a sign of how Congress could take action against Saudi Arabia if it does not stick to the plan to cut oil output.

The bill would also place tariffs on imports of oil from Saudi Arabia within 10 days of enactment. The tariff would ensure that the price of oil imports from Saudi Arabia would not be less than $40 a barrel, the bill said.

Trump has threatened tariffs on oil imports from Saudi Arabia and Russia but has not imposed them amid opposition from powerful energy interests, including the American Petroleum Institute lobbying group.

The bill would not remove U.S. Patriot missiles or THAAD defense systems, as the previous legislation would.

Congress is out until at least April 20 and possibly longer due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Saudi-led ceasefire in Yemen begins, lifting hopes for peace


ADEN/SANAA (Reuters) - A nationwide ceasefire in response to the global coronavirus outbreak went into effect in Yemen on Thursday, raising hope for an end to the five-year-old war that has pushed millions to the brink of famine.

A Saudi-led coalition fighting Yemen’s Houthi movement said it would halt military operations from 0900 GMT for two weeks in support of United Nations efforts to end the conflict that has killed more than 100,000 people.


The Iran-aligned Houthi movement, which controls the capital Sanaa and most big urban centres, has yet to announce whether it will follow suit in what would be the first major breakthrough in peace efforts since late 2018.

The coalition said its move is intended to facilitate talks sponsored by U.N. envoy Martin Griffiths for a permanent truce, motivated in part to avoid a potential outbreak of the new coronavirus, though no cases have been reported in Yemen.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in a statement said Washington welcomed the ceasefire announcement and urged Houthis to respond in kind to the coalition’s initiative. He called on all parties to cooperate with Griffiths’ efforts for talks.

In a statement, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged the Saudi-backed government and the Houthis to engage “in good faith and without preconditions” in the talks to agree a nationwide truce mechanism, humanitarian and economic confidence-building steps and a resumption of negotiations on a political settlement.

“We are tired of the war,” said 49-year-old Abd al-Basset Muhammad, who owns a juice shop in the southern port of Aden, interim seat of the Saudi-backed government. “If the war hasn’t already killed you, you are dying of hunger or disease.”

The conflict, widely seen in the region as a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, has been in military stalemate for years. Riyadh last year took over most of the costly and unpopular military campaign after coalition partner the United Arab Emirates significantly scaled down its presence.

Some Saudis and Yemenis residing in the kingdom, where cities have been targeted by Houthi missiles, welcomed the news.

“A lot of money was spent on the war. If there was no war, that money would be spent on education,” Saudi national Ammar Khaled told Reuters outside a supermarket in the capital Riyadh.

A Houthi official said on Wednesday the group had sent the United Nations a proposal calling for an end to the war and what it describes as a coalition blockade. The coalition, which patrols the coast and controls airspace, denies imposing a blockade and says it aims to halt import of weapons.

In the Yemeni capital, some remained sceptical.

Engineer Abdulrahman al-Qadi said he saw no point in only a two-week ceasefire. Ahmed al-Nuwaira, a member of Sanaa’s parliament, agreed: “Let them (the coalition) open the airports, (humanitarian) corridors and ports,” he said.

CORONAVIRUS FEARS

The United Nations and Western allies have pointed to the threat of the coronavirus to push the combatants to restart talks to end the war, which has shattered Yemen’s health system.

The U.N. humanitarian coordinator in Yemen, Lise Grande, told Reuters at least half of Yemen’s population was in a “very degraded health status” while three quarters require some form of humanitarian assistance or protection.

“There aren’t sufficient supplies, capabilities, facilities. If the virus spreads the impact will be catastrophic,” she said.

The warring parties last held U.N.-sponsored political negotiations in Sweden in 2018. They agreed a peace deal for the Red Sea port city of Hodeidah, but this has yet to be fully implemented because of deep mistrust on all sides.

Yemen witnessed a lull in hostilities after Saudi Arabia and the Houthis began back-channel talks late last year. But there has been a recent increase in attacks, including Houthi missile launches at Saudi cities and retaliatory coalition air strikes.

“We cannot control a global pandemic amongst bombs and airstrikes,” said Tamuna Sabedze, International Rescue Committee’s Yemen country director.

Two weeks was not enough time to prepare for any coronavirus outbreak, she said.

The Houthis ousted the government of Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi from power in Sanaa in late 2014, prompting the coalition to intervene in March 2015 to restore him. The Houthis say they are fighting a corrupt system.

Reporting by Muhammad Ghobari, Reuters TV teams in Yemen and Saudi Arabia, Lisa Barrington and Aziz El Yaakoubi; Writing by Lisa Barrington; Editing by Ghaida Ghantous, Peter Graff, Timothy Heritage and Daniel Wallis

'Coronavirus ceasefire' in Yemen's long conflict dismissed by rebels

AFP/File / MOHAMMED HUWAISA Yemeni volunteer sprays disinfectant in a poor district of the capital Sanaa amid fears of a coronavirus outbreak

The Saudi-led coalition said it began observing a unilateral ceasefire in war-wracked Yemen on Thursday to prevent the spread of coronavirus, but Huthi rebels dismissed the initiative as political manoeuvering.

The coalition said a two-week pause in the five year-conflict took effect from 0900 GMT, but a spokesman for the Huthis alleged air strikes continued to pound targets in Yemen after that.

"The aggression didn't stop... and until this moment there are tens of continuous air strikes," Huthi spokesman Mohamed Abdelsalam told Al Jazeera news network some five hours after the truce began.

"We consider the ceasefire a political and media manoeuver" to bolster the image of the coalition "in this critical moment when the world is facing" the coronavirus pandemic, he added.

The Saudi-led coalition intervened in Yemen's conflict in support of an internationally recognised government in 2015, pitting it against the Iran-aligned Huthi rebels.

If the ceasefire were to take root, it would be the first breakthrough since the warring parties agreed to a UN-brokered truce in the port city of Hodeida during talks in Sweden in late 2018.

The truce offer was welcomed by the United States, key Saudi-led coalition partner the United Arab Emirates, UN chief Antonio Guterres and the Arab League.

"The announcement is a constructive response to the UN Secretary General's call for the parties to focus on countering the COVID-19 pandemic", US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said.

"We urge the Huthis to respond in kind to the coalition's initiative," he added.

The UAE, which drew down its troops in Yemen last year as the conflict became increasingly intractable, said the Saudi move was "wise and responsible".

"Hope the Huthis rise to the occasion. The COVID-19 crisis eclipses everything -- the international community must step up efforts & work together to protect the Yemeni people," UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash tweeted.

- Wider solution -

Yasser Al-Houri, secretary of the Huthis' political council, poured cold water on the coalition's declaration, saying that the Saudis "are dishonest and violate every truce they announce".

"The announcement of this truce is to evade the true national vision that offers real solutions," he said, referring to a roadmap for peace unveiled by the rebels on Wednesday.

AFP / Mohammed HUWAISYemen has not recorded any cases of coronavirus but aid groups have warned it would be catastrophic 

The declaration of the ceasefire follows an escalation in fighting between the warring parties.

Saudi Arabia said Wednesday that the truce, which may be extended, could pave the way for a wider political solution.

Officials indicated they are keen for a UN-sponsored face-to-face meeting with the rebels to achieve a permanent ceasefire.

Hours before the announcement, the Huthis released a document that called for a withdrawal of foreign troops and the end of the coalition's blockade on Yemen's land, sea and air ports.

The rebels also demanded that the coalition pay government salaries for the next decade and hand over compensation for rebuilding, including homes destroyed in air strikes.

Guterres, who has called for an "immediate global ceasefire" to help avert disaster for vulnerable people in conflict zones, welcomed the truce offer, urging the government and Huthis to enter negotiations.

"Only through dialogue will the parties be able to agree on a mechanism for sustaining a nationwide ceasefire, humanitarian and economic confidence-building measures to alleviate the suffering of the Yemeni people, and the resumption of the political process to reach a comprehensive settlement to end the conflict," he said.

- 'Rare opportunity' -

The declared ceasefire comes as Saudi Arabia, reeling from plunging oil prices, seeks to extricate itself from the costly conflict that has killed tens of thousands of Yemeni people and triggered what the UN calls the world's worst humanitarian crisis.

AFP/File / MOHAMMED HUWAISThe Iran-backed Huthi rebels have not yet commented on the unilateral ceasefire by the Saudi-led coalition

Yemen's broken healthcare system has so far recorded no cases of the COVID-19 illness, but aid groups have warned that when it does hit, the impact will be catastrophic.

Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit hailed the ceasefire offer as a "rare opportunity to stop the bloodshed in Yemen".

Fighting had recently re-escalated between the Huthis and Riyadh-backed Yemeni government troops around the strategic northern provinces of Al-Jouf and Marib, after a months-long lull.

Fatima Abo Alasrar, a scholar at the Middle East Institute, noted that "the Huthis have currently opened multiple battlefronts they cannot afford to close."

Saudi air defences intercepted Yemeni rebel missiles over Riyadh and the border city of Jizan in March, leaving two civilians wounded in the curfew-locked capital, state media reported.

It was the first major assault on Saudi Arabia since the Huthis offered last September to halt attacks on the kingdom after devastating missile and drone strikes on Saudi oil installations.

Last week, the coalition carried out multiple air strikes on Yemen's rebel-held capital Sanaa in retaliation for the missile strikes.

Saudi-led coalition declares 2-week coronavirus ceasefire in Yemen

AFP / -The unilateral ceasefire follows an escalation in fighting between the warring parties

The Riyadh-led military coalition fighting Yemen's Huthi rebels has declared a two-week ceasefire in the country starting Thursday in a bid to combat the spread of the deadly coronavirus.

The unilateral ceasefire follows an escalation in fighting between the warring parties despite a call by the United Nations for an immediate cessation to protect civilians in the Arab world's poorest nation from the pandemic.

The announcement, due to take effect from 0900 GMT Thursday, marks the first breakthrough since the warring parties agreed to a UN-brokered ceasefire in the port city of Hodeida during talks in Sweden in late 2018.

"The coalition is determined... to support efforts towards combatting the spread of COVID-19 pandemic," Turki al-Maliki, the military alliance's spokesman, said on Wednesday.

"The coalition announces a comprehensive ceasefire in Yemen for a period of two weeks, starting on Thursday."

The two-week truce, which could be extended, was aimed at creating "appropriate conditions" for a UN-sponsored meeting between the warring parties to enable a "permanent ceasefire" in Yemen, Maliki added.

There was no immediate reaction from the Iran-aligned rebels.

AFP / -The war has already left Yemen gripped by what the UN calls the world's worst humanitarian crisis

But hours before the announcement, the rebels released a comprehensive document that called for a withdrawal of foreign troops and the end of the coalition's blockade on Yemen's land, sea and air ports.

The coalition, which launched its military intervention to support Yemen's internationally recognised government in 2015, said it was fully committed to a two-week ceasefire.

But when asked whether it will respond if the rebels persist with attacks during the truce, a Saudi official said it reserved the right to "defend our people".

UN special envoy Martin Griffiths welcomed the truce, calling on the warring parties to "cease immediately all hostilities with the utmost urgency".

The ceasefire comes as Saudi Arabia, reeling from plunging oil prices, seeks to extricate itself from the costly five-year conflict that has killed tens of thousands of people and triggered what the UN calls the world's worst humanitarian crisis.

Saudi deputy defence minister Prince Khalid bin Salman called on the rebels to "show good will" by seriously engaging in dialogue.

"The two week ceasefire will hopefully create a more effective climate to deescalate tensions, work with (Griffiths) towards a sustainable political settlement," Prince Khalid said on Twitter.

- 'Litmus test' -

The United Nations has repeatedly called for an immediate cessation of hostilities in Yemen to help avert potentially disastrous consequences of the coronavirus outbreak.

Yemen's broken healthcare system has so far recorded no cases of the COVID-19 illness, but aid groups have warned that when it does hit, the impact will be catastrophic.

"The ceasefire seems to be more of a courtesy than a policy -- it comes in response to UN calls to deescalate during the COVID-19 crisis," Fatima Abo Alasrar, a scholar at the Middle East Institute, told AFP.

Saudi Arabia, the Yemeni government and the Huthi rebels had all welcomed an appeal from UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres for an "immediate global ceasefire" to help avert disaster for vulnerable people in conflict zones.

"It is most important to watch if the Huthis will stop their military operations," Alasrar said.

"That will be the real litmus test of a successful ceasefire as the Huthis have currently opened multiple battlefronts they cannot afford to close."

Fighting recently escalated again between the Huthis and Riyadh-backed Yemeni troops around the strategic northern districts of Al-Jouf and Marib, ending a months-long lull.

And Saudi air defences intercepted Yemeni rebel missiles over Riyadh and the border city of Jizan late last month, leaving two civilians wounded in the curfew-locked capital, state media reported.

It was the first major assault on Saudi Arabia since the Huthi rebels offered last September to halt attacks on the kingdom after devastating assaults on Saudi oil installations.

Last week, the coalition carried out multiple air strikes on Yemen's rebel-held capital Sanaa in retaliation for the missile strikes.

9APR2020

   

Canada lifting a freeze on arms exports to Saudi Arabia, opposition wants big deal scrapped

THIS WAS A HARPER CONSERVATIVE GOVT DEAL 

THE LIBERALS COULD NOT GIVE UP FOR VOTES

YOU KNOW WHAT THEY SAY IN QP; SHAME, SHAME

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada is lifting a freeze on weapons exports to Saudi Arabia and has renegotiated a much-criticized $14 billion contract to sell General Dynamics Corp armored vehicles to Riyadh, Ottawa said on Thursday.

The “significant improvements” to the contract would secure thousands of jobs at the U.S. firm’s Canadian subsidiary, where the vehicles are being made, Foreign Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said.

The announcement marks a retreat by the Liberal government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who said in December 2018 he was looking for a way out of the deal.

A month earlier the government had frozen new permits pending a review. Some exports though continued under permits which had already been issued.

Human rights groups and political opponents, citing the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the Yemen war, had insisted Ottawa scrap a deal agreed by the previous Conservative government in 2014.



Champagne said that under the terms of the renegotiated agreement, Canada could delay or cancel permits without penalty if it discovered Saudi Arabia was not using the vehicles for their stated purpose. Ottawa would also boost its scrutiny of all proposed weapons sales, he added.

“This not a blank check to anyone who wants to export anything to Saudi Arabia,” he told reporters.

Trudeau had said there would be huge penalties for scrapping the deal but gave no details. Champagne said the penalty clause had potentially been worth the entire value of the deal.



The opposition New Democrats said Ottawa was “sending armored vehicles to an undemocratic authoritarian regime with a terrible human rights record” and demanded the deal be scrapped.
“We are troubled by the human rights situation in Saudi Arabia, particularly with women’s rights,” Champagne said. BUT NOT TROUBLED ENOUGH TO END THE SALE

The agreement was signed despite a diplomatic dispute between the two nations which erupted in August 2018 after Canada criticized Saudi Arabia over human rights.

The General Dynamics plant is based in London, Ontario, an area of relatively high unemployment. The Saudi announcement came the same day Canada reported record job losses amid the coronavirus outbreak.

“As we enter a world of deep economic recession, countries - including Canada - will likely be even less willing to give weight to human rights considerations in decisions over arms exports,” said Thomas Juneau, an assistant professor and Middle East expert at the University of Ottawa.

“Basically this is good money and we need it.”

NO IT'S NOT AND NO WE DON'T

THEY FORGOT ABOUT THIS CANADIAN RESIDENT IN SAUDI PRISON FACING DEATH

Child labour still prevalent in West Africa cocoa sector despite industry efforts: report

LACK OF EFFORT MORE LIKE IT

ABIDJAN (Reuters) - The use of child labour on cocoa farms in top producers Ivory Coast and Ghana has risen over the past decade despite industry promises to reduce it, according to a draft of a U.S. government-sponsored report seen by Reuters.

FILE PHOTO: Workers sift cocoa beans in Soubre, Ivory Coast, July 19, 2018. 

REUTERS/Thierry Gouegnon/File Photo
More than 2 million children worked in the sector last season in the West African countries that produce about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, according to the draft of a report funded by the U.S. Department of Labor. It is expected to be published later this month.

The level of child labour is higher than in 2010 when companies including Mars, Hershey, Nestle and Cargill [CARGIL.UL] pledged to reduce the worst forms of child labour in their West African supply chains by 70% by 2020.

In terms of the proportion of children from families working in the cocoa sector that are engaged in child labour, that increased to 46% in the 2018/19 season from 44% when the last survey was conducted in 2013/14, the U.S. report showed. The proportion engaged in hazardous labour, such as using sharp tools, stayed steady at 42%.

Those figures are more than 10% higher than when the first survey was conducted during the 2008/09 season and reveal the difficulty of eradicating child labour from a growing and sprawling sector that provides much-needed livelihoods for thousands of poor communities.

It may also add to pressure on cocoa traders and chocolate companies, who have faced criticism from U.S. lawmakers for failing to root out child labour from their supply chains.

“This report makes a strong case for understanding child labour and hazardous child labour in cocoa production as a complex problem requiring multiple complementary solutions,” said the report.

Ghana cocoa regulator Cocobod spokesman Fifi Boafo rejected the report’s findings.

“Cocobod has registered its disagreement with the findings of the report,” he said. “We believe the methodology used (was) wrong just as how some questions were framed.”

The Ivorian government committee responsible for child labour issues said the numbers in the draft shouldn’t be considered final because there were some issues with the methodology that have yet to be resolved to the government’s satisfaction.

Richard Scobey, the head of the World Cocoa Foundation (WCF), an industry group that represents companies including Nestle and Hershey, acknowledged that the industry was not on track to meet its target set in 2010. But he said the report was not complete and he could not yet comment.

“Government and company programmes to reduce child labour have shown significant success,” he said, pointing to one initiative - the International Cocoa Initiative - that is backed by the chocolate and cocoa industries and civil society and says it has reduced child labour by half where it operates.

“The challenge now is to scale up these interventions,” Scobey said.

Nestle referred Reuters to the WCF. Mars and Hershey both said it was too early to discuss the report. Cargill did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The report, conducted by researchers at the University of Chicago, is the third in a series of surveys of cocoa farmers called for by an agreement between the industry and U.S. lawmakers first struck in 2001. It was based on a survey of more than 2,000 households.

It estimated that approximately 2.1 million children in the two countries’ cocoa sectors are engaged in child labour, which includes work by under-12s and by older children that is hazardous or exceeds a certain number of hours.


That is similar to the estimate from the 2013/14 survey, but the report said those two numbers could not be compared because of methodological differences.

It said rises in the proportion of children working in the sector could be due to increased cocoa prices and production, which have pushed farmers to grow cocoa.

Cocoa output in Ivory Coast and Ghana rose to about 3 million tonnes last season from around 2.65 million tonnes in 2013/14.

Canada expects coronavirus deaths to soar; job losses hit 1 million

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada’s coronavirus death toll is set to soar from more than 500 currently to as high as 22,000 by the end of the pandemic, health officials said on Thursday, while the economy lost a record 1 million jobs last month.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the country would not return to normal until a vaccine is developed, which could be as long as 18 months.



Health officials said the two most likely scenarios showed between 11,000 and 22,000 people would die. The total number of positive diagnoses of COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the novel coronavirus, ranged from 934,000 to 1.9 million.

They said they expected between 500 and 700 people in Canada to die from the coronavirus by April 16. There have been nearly 21,000 positive diagnoses so far.

Chief public health officer Theresa Tam said it was crucial that people continued to stay at home as much as possible.

“While some of the numbers released today may seem stark, Canada’s modeling demonstrates that the country still has an opportunity to control the epidemic,” she told a briefing.

Howard Njoo, Tam’s deputy, said if all went well, the first wave of the outbreak could end by July or August. But he emphasized there would be subsequent smaller waves.

Local governments across Canada have ordered non-essential businesses shut to combat the spread, throwing millions out of work.

Canada lost a record-breaking 1 million jobs in March while the unemployment rate soared to 7.8%, Statistics Canada said, adding that the figures did not reflect the real toll.

“This was about as bad as it could be,” said Derek Holt, vice president of capital markets economics at Scotiabank.

More than 5 million Canadians have applied for all forms of federal emergency unemployment help since March 15, government data showed, suggesting the real jobless rate is closer to 25%.

Energy is among the hardest-hit sectors, as the pandemic cuts oil demand. OPEC and allies agreed to cut output by 10 million barrels per day, and Alberta’s premier said his province had not been asked to contribute to the curtailments.

Trudeau told reporters the country was “at a fork in the road between the best and the worse possible outcomes,” predicting that once the first wave was over, the economy could partially be reopened.

“Normality as it was before will not come back full on until we get a vaccine for this and ... that could be a very long way off.”

The Liberal government has announced a range of measures to help businesses totaling around C$110 billion ($78.3 billion) in direct spending, or 5% of gross domestic product.

Trudeau’s government recalled the House of Commons to meet on Saturday and vote in limited numbers on measures including a wage subsidy worth C$73 billion to soften the economic blow.

Canada’s independent parliamentary budget officer predicted the budget deficit would balloon to C$184.2 billion in the 2020-2021 fiscal year from C$27.4 billion in the 2019‑2020 fiscal year.

Reporting by David Ljunggren and Kelsey Johnson; additional reporting by Rod Nickel; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Jonathan Oatis, Paul Simao, Dan Grebler and Cynthia Osterman