Climate change undermines the safety of buildings and infrastructure in Europe

CMCC FOUNDATION - EURO-MEDITERRANEAN CENTER ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Research News

 

IMAGE: MEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALY FOR DJF (DECEMBER-JANUARY-FEBRUARY) AND JJA (JUNE-JULY-AUGUST) SEASONS UNDER THE CONCENTRATION SCENARIOS RCP4.5 (FIRST ROW) AND RCP8.5 (SECOND ROW); 2056-2085 VS 1971-2000. DATA PROCESSING BY DATACLIME.... view more 

CREDIT: WE ACKNOWLEDGE THE WORLD CLIMATE RESEARCH PROGRAMME'S WORKING GROUP ON REGIONAL CLIMATE, AND THE WORKING GROUP ON COUPLED MODELLING. WE THANK THE CLIMATE MODELLING GROUPS. WE ACKNOWLEDGE THE EARTH SYSTEM...

Buildings and infrastructure also need to adapt to the changing climate. Updating structural design standards is crucial to improving European climate resilience and ensuring the safety of constructions, that are expected to suffer from changes in atmospheric variables and more frequent and intense extreme weather events.

In 2017, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) - the European Commission's science and knowledge service - established the scientific network on adaptation of structural design to climate change. A network of experts, which includes the CMCC Foundation, dedicated to studying how research can help decision-makers take predicted changes in the climate system into account when amending the Eurocodes, the European standards for structural design.

The role of expected increases in temperature in Europe over the coming decades is at the centre of two new reports realised by the network, the first focused on thermal actions on structures (Thermal design of structures and the changing climate), and the other on corrosion in the context of a changing climate (Expected implications of climate change on the corrosion of structures).

In their contribution to these publications, CMCC researchers from the REMHI division - Regional Models and geo-Hydrological Impacts - analyzed temperature variations and other atmospheric variables expected over the next 50 years, a period that usually represents the use lifespan of a structure built today. The study used the results of the projections included in the EURO-CORDEX ensemble.

The first study, considered the "worst-case" scenario (RCP8.5) - or rather the "high emissions scenario", predicts a growth in greenhouse gas emissions at current rates for the future as a reference scenario to investigate the case study of Italy, noting for the entire country a relevant temperature increase by 2070.

"Taking as a reference the maximum and minimum temperature levels that are expected to occur at least once in 50 years, we found a significant increase in both the maximum values of the maximum temperature - which in some areas of Italy can reach +6°C - and the maximum values of the minimum temperature - with variations up to +8°C in the mountain ranges," explains Guido Rianna, CMCC researcher and one of the authors of the study. "The increase in minimum temperature may not be that relevant for buildings, as it implies that constructions will be exposed to less rigid temperatures than today, and therefore less stress. Instead, the increase in the maximum expected temperature could lead to the need for a revision of building standards to ensure the safety of constructions: linear structures such as bridges and viaducts, for example, are subject to thermal expansion."

The second publication is about a study - conducted on a European scale - on the expected variation in air temperatures and relative humidity in 2070 due to climate change, aimed at understanding to what extent these atmospheric variables may affect the corrosion of buildings in the future. Indeed, increasing temperature and relative humidity can accelerate the corrosion process of steel structures or bars embedded in reinforced concrete, undermining their resistance and therefore threatening the safety of buildings.

"Climate simulations tell us that temperatures in the next 50 years are increasing significantly throughout Europe, albeit with regional differences," continues Rianna. "The extent of this increase is between 3 and 5°C on average and depends on the climate change mitigation measures that will be implemented." Here too, the authors explain, an amendment of the Eurocodes may be necessary, in order to take into account the acceleration of the corrosion process in buildings induced by climate change and provide for measures to limit it. Future changes in relative humidity, the study explains, are not significant. Indicating that the real engine of corrosion processes of structures on a European scale will be represented by increases in temperature, rather than humidity.

"These publications are the result of a series of studies aimed at supporting the definition and revision of the European standards for structural design most suited to the world of the future," says Paola Mercogliano, director of the REMHI division of the CMCC Foundation. "After having analyzed, in the past, the impact of snowpack and in these recent studies, thermal impact, the next step will be to study the impact of wind. Our ultimate goal is to support policy-makers and builders with sound services and information for the update of current structural design standards, considering the various atmospheric phenomena and the different types of constructions, in order to allow for the implementation of effective policies and adaptation actions."

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More information

Athanasopoulou, A., Sousa, M.L., Dimova, S., Rianna, G., Mercogliano, P., Villani, V., Croce P., Landi, F., Formichi, P., Markova, J., Thermal design of structures and the changing climate, EUR 30302 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2020, ISBN 978-92-76-20776-4, doi:10.2760/128894, JRC121351.

M.L. Sousa, S. Dimova, A. Athanasopoulou, G. Rianna, P. Mercogliano, V.Villani, M. Nogal, H. Gervasio, L. Neves, E. Bastidas-Arteaga, G. Tsionis. Expected implications of climate change on the corrosion of structures, EUR 30303 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2020, ISBN 978-92-76-20782-5, doi:10.2760/05229, JRC121312.

 

Warm central equatorial pacific sea surface temperatures and anthropogenic warming boosted the 2019 severe drought in East China

INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

Research News

 

IMAGE: A PERSISTENT SEVERE DROUGHT OCCURRED OVER EAST CHINA ALONG THE YANGTZE RIVER IN 2019. THE PHOTO ON THE COVER OF ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES SHOWS CRACKED LAKE BOTTOM OF POYANG... view more 

CREDIT: JUFANG HU

Drought usually originates from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time and is identified as one of the extreme aspects of the hydrological cycle. Because of its destructive impacts on human life, agriculture, ecology, and physical systems of affected regions, there is increasing interest in understanding changes in drought under global warming and quantifying the role of human and other external influences on drought.

A severe drought occurred in East China from August to October 2019 against a background of long-term significant warming and caused widespread impacts on agriculture and society, emphasizing the urgent need to understand the mechanism responsible for this drought and its linkage to global warming.

"Whether severe droughts of this type are likely to increase under anthropogenic global warming is of great concern for both the public and policymakers," says Congwen Zhu, the corresponding author of a recently published paper in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. "Thus, our study was aimed at understanding the possible mechanisms responsible for this most severe drought in East China and to further explore its linkage with natural climate variability and anthropogenic global warming."

Zhu is a researcher from the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS). He and his colleagues found that warm central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures and anthropogenic warming were possibly responsible for this drought event.

"This drought was naturally driven by the extremely warm central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature. However, global warming has enhanced the probability of a severe drought like this occurring," concludes Shuangmei Ma, the first author of the paper, who is an associate researcher at CAMS.

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A new land surface model to monitor global river water environment

INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

Research News

 

Climate change and human activities, including heat emission, nitrogen (N) emission, and water management are altering the hydrothermal condition and N transport in the soil and river systems, thereby affecting the global nitrogen cycle and water environment. "We need to assess the impacts of these human activities on global river temperature and riverine N transport," said Prof. Zhenghui Zie with the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, "because quantitative assessment can not only improve our understanding of the material and energy cycle that occur in response to anthropogenic disturbances, but also contribute to protecting river ecosystems."

Xie and his collaborators from the Chinese Academy of Sciences incorporated the schemes of riverine dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) transport, river water temperature, and human activity into a land surface model, and thus developed a land surface model CAS-LSM. They applied the model to explore the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic disturbances on global river temperature and DIN transport.

"We found that the water temperature of rivers in tropical zones increased at about 0.5oC per decade due to climate change from 1981 to 2010, and the heat emission of the once-through cooling system of thermal power plants further warmed the temperature. In Asia, power plants increased local river temperatures by about 60%." Said Dr. Shuang Liu, the lead author of the study published in Global and Planetary Change.

Climate change determined the interannual variability of DIN exports from land to oceans, and water management controlled the retention of DIN by affecting the water cycle and river thermal processes.

"From the perspective of anthropogenic N emission, we found the riverine DIN in the USA was affected primarily by N fertilizer use, the changes in DIN fluxes in European rivers was dominated by point source pollution, and rivers in China were seriously affected by both fertilization and point source emission." said Dr. Yan Wang, the lead author of the team's another study published in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.

In general, the results indicated that incorporating schemes related to nitrogen transport and human activities into land surface models could be an effective way to monitor global river water quality and diagnose the performance of the land surface modeling.

This series of studies have been published in Global Change Biology, Global and Planetary Change, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems and other journals. One of the papers is highlights by Nature Climate Change.

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Modern humans took detours on their way to Europe

UNIVERSITY OF COLOGNE

Research News

 

Favourable climatic conditions influenced the sequence of settlement movements of Homo sapiens in the Levant on their way from Africa to Europe. In a first step, modern humans settled along the coast of the Mediterranean Sea. Only then did they spread out into the Sinai desert and the eastern Jordanian Rift Valley. This is the result of archaeological research conducted by Collaborative Research Centre 'Our Way to Europe' (CRC 806) at the universities of Cologne, Bonn, and Aachen. The article 'Al-Ansab and the Dead Sea: mid-MIS 3 Archaeology and Environment of the Early Ahmarian Population of the Levantine Corridor' was published in PLOS ONE.

For more than ten years, the team has been analysing sediments, pollen, and archaeological artefacts around the site of Al-Ansab 1 near the ancient ruin-city of Petra (Jordan). The goal was to gain an understanding of the environmental conditions that prevailed at the time of human expansion. 'Human presence consolidated in the region under favourable climate conditions', said Professor Dr Jürgen Richter, lead author of the study.

The success story of anatomically modern humans outside of Africa began about 100,000 years ago with well-known sites such as Qafzeh and Skhul in Israel. However, these early records only reveal a brief, temporary expansion of the territory into the Levant. Permanent settlement of the region only dates back to about 43,000 years ago, scientists believe. During the epoch of the so-called 'Early Ahmarian', modern humans gradually had been spreading throughout the Levant - a first step on their way to Asia and Europe.

Favourable climatic conditions were preconditions for permanent human settlement. On a large scale, this is illustrated by the presence of the so-called Lake Lisan. This freshwater lake was located where the Dead Sea is today. However, it was of a much larger extent and carried greater water volume. Most of the water evaporated only with the end of the last ice age, leaving behind the hypersaline Dead Sea known today.

Even on a small scale, the scientists were able to recognise the favourable environmental conditions: geo-archaeological teams from the University of Cologne and RWTH Aachen University examined the site of Al-Ansab 1. Whereas today, the Wadi Sabra, in which the site is located, is strongly shaped by seasonal flash floods, geomorphological and archaeological investigations showed that at the time of settlement, the conditions were less erosive and continuously wet, permitting the presence of humans.

'This enabled the spread of humans from the coastal Mediterranean area to the formerly drier regions of the Negev desert and the eastern slopes of the Jordan Rift Valley. They hunted gazelles in the open landscape - a prey we found in many sites in the region from this period', says Richter. 'Humans did not come by steady expansion out of Africa through the Levant and further to Europe and Asia. Rather, they first settled in a coastal strip along the Mediterranean Sea.'

The region around the site of Al-Ansab 1 therefore was a stepping stone on Homo sapiens' way - a journey that did not take a straight path to the European continent, but was guided by complex interactions between humans and their environment.

Unexpectedly large number of trees populate the Western Sahara and the Sahel

CNRS

Research News

 

IMAGE: CATTLE HERD NEAR NIAKHAR (SENEGAL) UNDER AN ACACIA TREE AND CLOSE TO A BALANITES TREE. view more 

CREDIT: LAURENT KERGOAT - GET

The number of trees inhabiting the Western Sahara, the Sahel and the Sudanian zone has exceeded the expectations of scientists, with more than 1.8 billion having been located thanks to an international collaboration including researchers from the CNRS*. High-resolution remote sensing made it possible to gather a multitude of satellite images of these areas, which were then analysed by applying an artificial intelligence pattern recognition method. According to the study, which focused on trees with a crown size greater than 3m², isolated trees cover an area of 1.3 million km², about 2.5 times the surface area of France. Scientists also noted that crown size and tree density depends closely on the climatic regime and land use. These trees make a major contribution to local resources, biodiversity and carbon storage, as well as playing a crucial role in dry tropical ecosystems and agrosystems. This work, published on 14th October in Nature, highlights the possibility of creating an inventory of all the non-forest trees on the planet, in order to assess their contribution to environmental issues.

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*French scientists working at the Laboratoire « Evolution et Diversité Biologique » (CNRS/Université Toulouse III Paul Sabatier/IRD) and the Laboratoire « Géosciences Environnement Toulouse » - OMP (CNRS/CNES/Université Toulouse III Paul Sabatier/IRD).

Thawing permafrost releases organic compounds into the air

UNIVERSITY OF HELSINKI

Research News

 

When permafrost thaws due to global warming, not only the greenhouse gases known to all, but also organic compounds are released from the soil. They may have a significant impact on climate change.

Arctic peatlands are very rich in carbon. The effects of the Arctic permafrost thawing on carbon dioxide and methane emissions have been investigated and assessed extensively globally. It is known that when the permafrost thaws, carbon dioxide and methane, which accelerate climate change, are released from the soil. Less attention has been paid to the fact that thawing permafrost may also release volatile organic compounds into the air.

Researchers at the University of Helsinki observed in a study for the first time that large quantities of volatile organic compounds, including monoterpenes, sesquiterpenes and diterpenes, are released from permafrost peatland soil thawed in laboratory incubations. The peatland soil samples were collected from Finnish Lapland. The study demonstrated that global warming accelerates the release of these compounds, particularly those with lower volatility, from the Arctic permafrost.

In the Arctic region, the anthropogenic influences are weak and aboveground vegetation is scarce. The released organic compounds from thawing permafrost can be highly reactive and contribute to the formation of small particles that suspend in the air. These processes can significantly impact the complex causalities associated with climate change and, consequently, the Arctic climate as well as global warming as a whole.

Compounds released from the soil and formed in the air can, for example, increase cloud formation, making increased cloudiness reflect solar radiation away from the Earth, which curbs global warming.

"For now, it's impossible to say with certainty whether the release of organic compounds accelerates or decelerates climate change. They introduce in any case additional uncertainties to climate change modelling." says Associate Professor Federico Bianchi from the University of Helsinki's Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR).

According to Bianchi, much more research is needed to determine the significance of the findings now made. One of the biggest uncertainties in modelling climate change is precisely the effect aerosols have on global warming. Finnish researchers are at the global top in aerosol research.

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Specialists of several fields at the University of Helsinki contributed to the study, which was published in the esteemed Environmental Research Letters journal.

Article:

Li, H., Väliranta, M., Mäki, M., Kohl, L., Sannel, A. B. K., Pumpanen, J., Koskinen, M., Bäck, J., and Bianchi, F.: Overlooked organic vapor emissions from thawing Arctic permafrost, Environ Res Lett, 2020. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abb62d

Further information:

Haiyan Li, postdoctoral researcher, Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research, University of Helsinki, +358 50 4387 670, haiyan.li@helsinki.fi

Federico Bianchi, associate professor, Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research, University of Helsinki, +358 50 3188 157, federico.bianchi@helsinki.fi

 

Thinning and prescribed fire treatments reduce tree mortality

USDA FOREST SERVICE - PACIFIC SOUTHWEST RESEARCH STATION

Research News

 

ALBANY, Calif. -- To date in 2020, 1,217 wildfires have burned 1,473,522 million acres of National Forest System lands in California; 8,486 wildfires have burned over 4 million acres across all jurisdictions in California. This current fire activity comes after forests in the region experienced an extreme drought accompanied by warmer than normal temperatures from 2012 to 2015, resulting in the deaths of over 147 million trees, mostly from bark beetles. These dead trees are now adding more fuel to this summer's wildfires, especially in the southern and central Sierra Nevada, where tree mortality was the heaviest.

Frequent fire once kept forests throughout the western US relatively open and prevented excess litter and downed wood from accumulating on the forest floor. After more than a century of fire suppression, many forests became far denser than they once were and more prone to disturbances such as uncharacteristically severe wildfire and drought. A recently released study by USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station research ecologists Eric Knapp and Malcolm North, research entomologist Chris Fettig, along with co-authors Alexis Bernal and Dr. Jeffrey Kane (Humboldt State University) suggests that if forests had been closer to their historic densities, tree mortality would likely not have been as severe. Published in the journal Forest Ecology and Management, the study found that between 2014 and 2018, 34% of trees in unthinned areas died compared with only 11% of trees in thinned areas.

This study compared two different types of thinning - a 'High Variability' method that restored a structure with more of the trees in groups and groups intermixed with small gaps, similar to what forests of California, shaped by fire, once looked like, and a 'Low Variability' method with relatively evenly spaced individual trees. One goal of the 'High Variability' method was to create and accentuate habitat for forest dwelling plant and animal species. Half of the study units were also treated with prescribed fire. The study found both thinning methods were equally effective at reducing tree mortality and increasing tree growth.

"Our findings show that thinning and prescribed fire can produce a diverse forest that not only provides greater variety of habitats but is also resilient to extreme drought," said Dr. Knapp. "Because of these potential habitat benefits and just a more natural look, high variability approaches to forest thinning also tend to have broader support in the community".

The large number of dead trees are adding to a pre-existing fuel problem by falling to the ground and creating more material to burn in areas that are already prone to uncharacteristically severe wildfire. Prescribed fire is one tool for reducing these fuels. "Results from our study demonstrated that trees in areas treated with prescribed fire were less likely to die if the forest was thinned first," said Dr. Knapp.

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https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1bo4e1L%7EGwOHqj

For more information about the study: https://www.fs.fed.us/psw/topics/forest_mgmt/variabledensity/

Headquartered in Albany, California, the Pacific Southwest Research Station is part of the U.S. Forest Service's Research and Development branch developing and communicating science needed to sustain forest ecosystems and other benefits to nature and society. Pacific Southwest Research Station scientists are engaged in research across a network of 14 experimental watersheds, ranges and forests and eight research facilities in California, Hawaii and the U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands. Research is organized into five research units: conservation of biodiversity, ecosystem function and health, fire and fuels, urban ecosystems and social dynamics, as well as Pacific Islands forestry. For more information, visit fs.fed.us/psw.

 

Cows prefer "live" co-moo-nication, study reveals

If you've ever wondered how to relax a cow, this one's for you

FRONTIERS

Research News

 

IMAGE: RESEARCHER ANNIKA LANGE TAKING PART IN SOME BOVINE BONDING view more 

CREDIT: © INSTITUTE OF ANIMAL WELFARE SCIENCE, VETMEDUNI VIENNA

After months of technology-based communication enforced by COVID-19, many of us are missing a "live" human voice. But we're not the only ones -- a new study reveals that cows also prefer a face-to-face chat. The research, published in Frontiers in Psychology, discovers that cows are actually more relaxed when spoken to directly by a live human, rather than when listening to a recorded voice via a loudspeaker.

"Cattle like stroking in combination with gentle talking," says Annika Lange of the University of Veterinary Medicine, Vienna, Austria. "In scientific contexts, a recording of a human voice speaking gently could be used to relax the animals, because it can be difficult to repeat the same phrases in the same way during experiments."

Using a recorded voice means conditions are as similar as possible in each trial, following a concept known as "standardization" -- an important principle of scientific experimentation. However, the team of scientists wanted to find out if cows respond differently to the sound of recorded voices compared to a human talking directly to them. "Our study suggests that live talking is more relaxing for our animals than a recording of a human voice", Lange says. "Interactions may be less positive when they become artificial through standardization".

The team worked with a herd of 28 cattle, comparing the benefits of either stroking the animals while playing a recording of an experimenter's voice, or stroking while speaking to the animals directly. After monitoring the animals' responses during the experiments, they found live talking was the best mood enhancer for their bovine friends.

Heart rate variability was higher when cattle were spoken to directly, indicating they were enjoying themselves. After this treatment, heart rates were lower than after listening to a recorded voice, showing that the animals were more relaxed following the live chat.

How does a chilled cow behave? "When relaxed and enjoying the interaction, the animals will often stretch out their necks as they do when they groom each other," says Lange. "Additionally, it is thought that ear positions may indicate mood: hanging ears and low ear positions appear to be linked to relaxation."

The experiment included only one herd and one playback recording. Lange calls for further research to see if results are also valid for different herds and situations, such as with cows that are more fearful of humans. This will help in further studies on the improvement of cattle-human relationships, an important aspect of animal welfare.

Notes to Editors

Original article: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.579346/full

Corresponding author: Annika Lange, annika.lange@vetmeduni.ac.at

Loop: https://loop.frontiersin.org/people/901494/overview

Frontiers is an award-winning Open Science platform and leading open-access scholarly publisher. Our mission is to make high-quality, peer-reviewed research articles rapidly and freely available to everybody in the world, thereby accelerating scientific and technological innovation, societal progress and economic growth. Frontiers received the 2014 ALPSP Gold Award for Innovation in Publishing. For more information, visit http://www.frontiersin.org and follow @Frontiersin on Twitter.

 

Port engineers need guidance incorporating sea level rise into construction designs

New survey by URI researchers finds rising sea level often not factored into maritime infrastructure design

UNIVERSITY OF RHODE ISLAND

Research News

  

 

 

KINGSTON, R.I. - October 13, 2020 - A survey of maritime infrastructure engineers by University of Rhode Island researchers found that the rising sea level is often not factored into designs of ports, breakwaters, fishing piers and other coastal infrastructure.

"If we're making decisions about infrastructure today and expect it to be serviceable for the next 50 to 75 years, we should be thinking about what the environmental conditions will be like towards the end of the infrastructure's life," said Austin Becker, URI associate professor of marine affairs, who studies how ports are preparing for climate change. "And we know that things are going to be very different along our coasts in the coming years."

In 2019, Becker and graduate student Benjamin Sweeney surveyed 85 engineers at consulting firms, port authorities and government agencies with experience working on port infrastructure projects in the United States. They found that 64% do not have a policy or planning document to guide how to incorporate sea level change into their designs.

"The challenge they face is that they aren't receiving concrete, consistent guidance for what they should be doing to integrate sea level rise projections into their work," Becker said. "They need guidance, they want guidance, they don't want to have to go on the whims of their clients, who may not have expertise in this area. They also don't want to have to weigh potentially conflicting guidance from local, state or federal agencies."

Becker said that without guidance, port engineers are more likely to disregard sea level change projections entirely.

"Formal policies or documents can lend credibility and provide the basis for recommendations," wrote Becker and Sweeney in a research paper in the Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering. "Conversely, engineers without the documented support from their organization may be less willing to take the personal and professional risk that comes with making subjective decisions."

Of the 29% of survey respondents that do have formal guidance from a sea level rise planning document, only 9% said they use it for all of their projects.

"That isn't surprising, but it's worrisome," said Becker, a visiting fellow at the U.S. Naval War College. "It's not surprising because of the times we live in; there's so much conflicting information out there about climate change. But scientists understand that sea levels are actually rising and that there will be ramifications, and it's going to make things much more expensive to not factor those changes into designs now."

The survey also examined the factors that influenced whether engineers incorporate sea level rise into their designs. It found that 54% of respondents said they often or always factor in rising sea levels because it is required by their client, and 46% indicated they do so because it is a regulatory requirement.

More than half of the respondents also said that "a lack of design standards" was the chief barrier to incorporating sea level rise into their infrastructure projects. Other answers included a lack of funding, the client doesn't want sea level rise incorporated, and concerns over the uncertainty of sea level rise projections.

"Regulatory standards and codes remove the burden on engineers to make subjective sea level rise decisions," Becker and Sweeney wrote. "This barrier also renders many of the other barriers less relevant."

Based on the results of the survey, Becker and Sweeney recommend that engineers undertake a life cycle cost analysis that includes sea level rise projections for each project. This methodology can be used to support decision making for climate change adaptation alternatives.

They also suggest that the engineering community collaborate with port authorities and regulatory bodies to create design standards to improve the resilience of port infrastructure.

"Engineers need something they can rely on so they can go to their clients and say, 'this is what we need to follow, and it's not optional,'" Becker said. "The guidance also has to be flexible enough so it can be adapted over time as conditions change, but it gives them something they can hang their hat on today."

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The Sea Level Change Subcommittee of the American Society of Civil Engineers Ports and Harbors Committee served as advisers on this research. The results of the survey will be incorporated into an upcoming planning document the subcommittee is developing that will provide guidance on how engineers and planners can incorporate sea level change into their port infrastructure designs.

 

New global temperature data will inform study of climate impacts on health, agriculture

UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA

Research News

 

A seemingly small one-to-two degree change in the global climate can dramatically alter weather-related hazards. Given that such a small change can result in such big impacts, it is important to have the most accurate information possible when studying the impact of climate change. This can be especially challenging in data sparse areas like Africa, where some of the most dangerous hazards are expected to emerge.

A new data set published in the journal Scientific Data provides high-resolution, daily temperatures from around the globe that could prove valuable in studying human health impacts from heat waves, risks to agriculture, droughts, potential crop failures, and food insecurity.

Data scientists Andrew Verdin and Kathryn Grace of the Minnesota Population Center at the University of Minnesota worked with colleagues at the Climate Hazards Center at the University of California Santa Barbara to produce and validate the data set.

"It's important to have this high-resolution because of the wide-ranging impacts - to health, agriculture, infrastructure. People experiencing heat waves, crop failures, droughts - that's all local," said Verdin, the lead author.

By combining weather station data, remotely sensed infrared data and the weather simulation models, this new data set provides daily estimates of 2-meter maximum and minimum air temperatures for 1983-2016. Named CHIRTS-daily, this data provides high levels of accuracy, even in areas where on-site weather data collection is sparse. Current efforts are focused on updating the data set in near real time.

"We know that the next 20 years are going to bring more extreme heat waves that will put millions or even billions of people in harm's way. CHIRTS-daily will help us monitor, understand, and mitigate these rapidly emerging climate hazards", said Chris Funk, director of the Climate Hazards Center.

Additionally, the people who are most vulnerable are often located in areas where publicly available weather station data are deteriorating or unreliable. Areas with rapidly expanding populations and exposures (e.g. Africa, Central America, and parts of Asia) can't rely on weather observations. By combining different sources of weather information, each contributes to provide detail and context for a more accurate, global temperature dataset.

"We're really excited about the possibilities for fine-scale, community-focused climate-health data analyses that this dataset can support. We're excited to see researchers use it," said co-author Kathryn Grace.

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