Urban-rural divide remains

Liberals win minority, but some B.C. battleground ridings still on the line

Stefan Labbé, Glacier Media - Sep 21, 2021 / 4:00 am | Story: 346330

Photo: Larissa Kurz / SASKTODAY.ca

Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party has won a third term in office, but without the majority he had hoped for when he triggered a snap election last month.

The call — made by the Canadian Press and big television networks like CBC and CTV — came less than a half-hour after polls closed in British Columbia.

Just how stable the minority will be is not clear, with nearly 800,000 mail-in ballots still uncounted. As of 10 p.m. Monday, the Liberal Party was leading with 156 seats, one shy of the party’s seat total in 2019, but 14 short of a majority.

In British Columbia, partisan lines cut across geographic divides. Much of the Interior and northwest of the province aligned with deep Tory support that ran almost uninterrupted to the Ontario border.

In Metro Vancouver, several battleground ridings turned against the Conservative party with NDP and Liberal candidates winning or in the lead.

“That’s indicative of a Conservative party that is not breaking through,” said Simon Fraser University political scientist Stewart Prest. “It seems like they really have run into a wall in the Lower Mainland.”

That wall starts red. Across the Metro Vancouver region, Liberal candidates picked up or defended their seat in several battleground ridings, including Burnaby North-Seymour, Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam, Delta, Cloverdale-Langley City, and Fleetwood-Port Kells.

Ken Hardie, a third-time candidate for Surrey's Fleetwood-Port Kells riding, arrived at the Guilford Taphouse "expecting some drama." By late Monday, Hardy had a 6,000-vote cushion over the Conservative candidate.

"What we were hearing at the doors and what we were seeing in the community felt like 2015," he said.

Hardie says he will return to Ottawa with the goal of protecting salmon stocks, getting SkyTrain extended south of the Fraser and doing something about "the stupid money coming into the country" and driving up housing prices.

By 11 p.m., Liberal candidates were also leading in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country and even in Richmond Centre, where Tory incumbent Alice Wong has held the riding for three terms.

It wasn’t just Liberals picking up seats in the Lower Mainland. In Port Moody-Coquitlam, Canada’s closest race in 2019, NDP candidate Bonita Zarillo defeated Conservative incumbent Nelly Shin in a rematch. From there, a boot of orange cut through NDP strongholds in New Westminster, Burnaby (including NDP leader Jagmeet Singh’s riding) and East Vancouver.

In Vancouver-Granville, one of the closest watched races in the country, NDP candidate Anjali Appadurai held a slight lead over Liberal Taleed Noormohamed late Monday.

“We can see that the NDP are a real force in a number of different ridings,” said Prest. “It’s really going to be a contest between progressives.”

On the coast, the province showed its progressive streak. The NDP took ridings from the Alaska border to the capital, Victoria. Even in Nanaimo-Ladysmith, the NDP candidate was ahead of Green incumbent Paul Manly.

Manly said he was confident that special ballots would bring him the win.

“Obviously this isn’t what we had hoped for right here, right now,” he said. “It would be nice to be 1,000 votes ahead instead of 1,000 votes behind, but we have 8,000 votes yet that are going to be counted on Friday.”

With almost 9,000 special ballots requested in the riding, it could be some time before a final result is known.

Should Manly lose his seat, it would seal what many political pundits had signalled since the start of the campaign: a collapse in Green support after party brass tried to oust leader Annamie Paul in June.

Despite a shift in seats (and Hardie's claims of a 2015 red wave repeat), no party managed a significant breakthrough since the campaign began in August. For University of British Columbia associate professor Gerald Baier, the strong regional pattern of voting shows a divided population in B.C.

“If we get Groundhog Day, which we basically did, sometimes that’s the message: how much power do Canadians want a Liberal government to have?” he said.

None of that should come as a surprise, according to Prest. Deep divisions in society, like the urban-rural divide on issues like climate change and resource extraction, means Canadians are not going to trust one party with the keys to the country.

“This may be a country that tends to produce minority governments divided by region, divided by urban and rural,” said Prest.

In the hours after a minority government was called, several pundits had already begun casting the election as a loss for all parties, and especially Canadians, who are on the hook for a roughly $600-million bill.

But while that’s certainly a fortune to any Canadian, Baier notes it works out to roughly $16 per Canadian in the end, a small cost to carry out the functions of a democracy.

“I’ll probably sound like a Trudeau apologist, but it’s never wrong to go through an election,” Baier said.

The political scientist reserves his frustration for the long lines of student voters, who reportedly waited up to three hours at the University of British Columbia after Elections Canada failed to set up a smooth process for a student vote.

“If I’m going to criticize anybody, it’s Elections Canada,” he said. “It’s not voter suppression. But it’s serious bureaucratic incompetence.”

With files from the Canadian Press and Darron Kloster

Canada stocks, dollar climb after Trudeau wins third term

Esteban Duarte and Paula Sambo, Bloomberg News

Canadian stocks climbed along with the country’s currency after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau won a historic third term in a federal election that did little to reorder the political balance of the country.

Canada’s benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index was up 0.7 per cent at 9:58 a.m. in Toronto, in line with gains in other equity markets, while the Canadian currency strengthened against the U.S. dollar.

“The status quo is exactly what markets like, especially stocks,” Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, said Tuesday in a phone interview. “So while Trudeau didn’t get what he had hoped for in calling the snap election, that means really no disruption as it relates to markets.”

Trudeau’s Liberal Party was elected or leading in 158 of the 338 seats in Canada’s House of Commons, with 99 per cent of the polls reporting. That’s one more seat than he won in the last vote in 2019. The main opposition Conservatives, under Erin O’Toole, won 119 seats, two fewer than last time. The Bloc Quebecois won 34 seats and the New Democratic Party had 25 seats. The result leaves parliament little changed from how it looked before Trudeau called the vote.

“Similar to 2019, the Liberals should not have much problem passing major spending legislation and get timely support from opposition parties,” said Dominique Lapointe, an economist at Laurentian Bank of Canada. “The fact that the final elections results should be very similar to 2019 makes it more likely that Mr. Trudeau will lean more, at first, on NDP and Bloc ideas in order to gather more consensus on its COVID-19 agenda.”

The loonie, as it is dubbed because of the bird that graces Canada’s coinage, rose 0.2 per cent to 78.17 cents to outperform all other Group of 10 currencies except Norway’s krone and Swiss francs, Bloomberg data show. The Canadian dollar had been mostly weakening in recent weeks because of the uncertainty around the Sept. 20 election.

“The election appeared to be holding the loonie back by at least one cent,” said Warren Lovely, chief rates and public sector strategist at National Bank of Canada, noting that the currency got a lift from the results. “It’s time to put this unnecessary election behind us.”

Meanwhile, Canadian bond yields were little changed following the election outcome, with Canada’s two-year government bond yield at 0.442 per cent on Tuesday.

“Markets couldn’t care less about the election,” Bank of Nova Scotia economist Derek Holt said. “That’s just as it should be with a status quo outcome that changes nothing.”

CRY PANIC SAYS THE RENTIER CLASS
This minority government's climate-change agenda should worry investors

Martin Pelletier: Investors should get prepared — very prepared — for what lies ahead
Author of the article: Martin Pelletier
Publishing date: Sep 21, 2021 •

FP Investor

Prime Minister and Liberal Party Leader Justin Trudeau delivers his victory speech at election headquarters on September 20, 2021 in Montreal.

 PHOTO BY DAVE CHAN/GETTY IMAGES

Markets seem to be calling the election of another minority Canadian government a non-event, but investors should be quite worried that there will be a profound impact on our way of life if we continue on our existing trajectory, especially if our country’s oil exposure is no longer able to come to the rescue as it has in the past.

It’s extremely disappointing that a large part of Canada is not yet willing to recognize our rapidly deteriorating financial position. This shouldn’t come at a surprise, given our affinity for taking on household debt. More troubling is that all of this debt is being supported by the Bank of Canada and money printing, otherwise known as Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).

There are some who argue that other countries are doing the same thing, so why not us, but they’re completely ignoring both the magnitude and depth of our particular situation.

Consider this, according to National Bank Financial and the International Monetary Fund, the Liberal federal government last year had the largest fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP in the entire Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). And they’ve just been handed a pat on the back to keep on doing it.

Taking on debt is not always a bad thing if deployed correctly, but the COVID-19 crisis is being used as a means to spend vast amounts of money on climate change rather than focusing on getting the economy back on a proper footing. For example, United States President Joe Biden last week announced that by 2025 — just a little more than three years from now — he wants the entire U.S. power complex to be completely free of carbon.

Now that Justin Trudeau and his climate-change agenda beat out the cost-of-living crisis as the clear No. 1 issue with voters, especially in the Greater Toronto Area, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him go all-in and triple down on his green policies with support from the NDP.

We already saw hints of this in Trudeau’s last fiscal update. I calculated that the Liberals’ targeted spending on green investments was nearly 150 per cent of what they budgeted to spend on dealing with the COVID-19 economic recovery (aid, income programs, etc).

Think about that for a second: climate-change policy is overriding concerns about the recent rise of the coronavirus variant and rocketing daily living expenses.

As a result, countries, including our own, are going to have to adjust and learn to live with COVID-19 without shutting down even as less money is made available to help offset the supply/demand imbalances that are sending prices sustainably higher, thus, making the situation even worse

MORE  CLIMATE DENIAL

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Climate-change policy is overriding concerns about the recent rise of the coronavirus variant and rocketing daily living expenses. 

PHOTO BY KEREM YUCEL/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES FILES

Put the two together and you have a terrible scenario: stagflation.

Meanwhile, central bankers and governments such as Trudeau’s are fighting this narrative tooth and nail, because they by no means want to inhibit their climate-change agenda by having to redirect fiscal spending towards helping Main Street.

We also expect central bankers undertaking MMT to continue telling us that there is no actual inflation or cost-of-living problem at all, which works great as long as we keep drinking the Kool-Aid (without looking at the price of it, of course).

For example, a story in the Wall Street Journal said the U.S. Federal Reserve uses a gauge from the Dallas Fed that throws out the top 31 per cent and bottom 24 per cent of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price changes so that they are magically on track with their year-over-year target. Perhaps policy-makers could use a dose of Goodhart’s law, which states that “when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.”

It wouldn’t surprise us to see the same kind of nonsense from the Bank of Canada and the newly elected Liberal minority government. That said, Trudeau, for the time being, doesn’t have to worry about it, since he has been given another mandate for the status quo.

All of which is why we’re recommending that investors get prepared — very prepared — for what lies ahead.

An obvious first step is to own some energy stocks, which have been recently selling off over the past few days along with the market correction, as an inflation hedge. The Canadian sector has consolidated and is stronger than ever, and will return capital to shareholders via share buybacks and debt repayment instead of putting it in the ground due to the likelihood of further prohibitive federal policy.

I also recently did two things for the first time ever: I locked in my home natural gas and power prices for five years, and bought some gold in client portfolios.

MORE ON THIS TOPIC

What the election outcome means to the economy, stocks and the loonie


Why investors should care about monetary policy, even if Trudeau doesn’t

Many people will be in for a nasty surprise over the next few winters because of oil and gas supply challenges, similar to the ones currently facing Europe.

As for gold, history has shown that it does much better during the early stages of inflation than the later stages and also excels during stagflationary environments, so we dipped our toes in last week.

Finally, if your U.S. dollar positions are short, now could be a great time to look at buying more to protect against a weaker Canadian dollar should it disconnect from its historical relationship to oil.

Overall, it’s a great time to be a contrarian and start hedging against the escalating risks of the status quo. Many Canadians may be OK with betting our government’s balance sheet on climate change, but that doesn’t mean you have to bet yours as well.

Financial Post

Martin Pelletier, CFA, is a portfolio manager at Wellington-Altus Private Counsel Inc. (formerly TriVest Wealth Counsel Ltd.), a private client and institutional investment firm specializing in discretionary risk-managed portfolios, investment audit/oversight and advanced tax and estate planning.

Posthaste: The new minority Trudeau government must get to work on these five economic issues — immediately

As many as 35% of Canadians don't own a home

Author of the article: Yadullah Hussain
Publishing date: Sep 21, 2021 • 

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau gives a thumbs up as he arrives to deliver his victory speech after snap parliamentary elections at the Fairmount Queen Elizabeth Hotel in Montreal, Quebec, early on September 21, 2021.

 PHOTO BY ANDREJ IVANOV/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES



Good morning!

Despite the futility of the 2021 federal election, there was some refreshing clarity on a number of challenges facing the country, with the key parties mostly in broad agreement on the issues (although they disagreed vehemently on the details).

The electorate appears to have handed Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party yet another minority mandate, dashing his hopes of whole-hearted approval of his policies.

But the Liberal leader thinks otherwise: “You are sending us back to work with a clear mandate to get Canada through this pandemic and to the brighter days ahead,” Trudeau told supporters as the results rolled in. “What we’ve seen tonight is that millions of Canadians have chosen a progressive plan.”

Projections are for 155-158 seats for the Liberal party, with Erin O’ Toole’s Conservatives trailing with roughly 119 seats, Yves-Francois Blanchet’s Bloc Quebecois securing 34 seats and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP with 25 seats at least by early morning Tuesday.

Still, with Trudeau noting early on in the campaign that he may call another election in 18 months in the absence of a majority mandate, Canadians would like to see progress made on the following issues (in no particular order) before the Liberal Party can even dream of earning another term.

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY/COST OF LIVING

Just over a third of Canadians don’t own a home and likely have aspirations to do so at some point. That increasingly dissatisfied segment of the population could come to haunt the government if it does not take measures to rein in runaway home price inflation.

The Liberals have pledged to build, preserve or repair 1.4 million homes over four years, and make $4 billion available to cities through a Housing Accelerator Fund. Other measures include introducing a multi-generational Home Renovation tax credit, and a Home Buyers’ Bill of Rights that would ban blind bidding, in addition to banning new foreign ownership of Canadian houses for the next two years.

If the Liberals are to secure NDP support to form the next government, Jagmeet Singh will likely insist on injecting some of his policies such as doubling the first-time homeowner’s credit to $1,500 and transforming it into a rebate to ensure first-time homebuyers can get the money when they move in rather than “at tax time.”

Still, as Financial Post columnists Murtaza Haider and Stephen Moranis soberly noted recently: “Housing is a multi-jurisdictional responsibility, with subnational governments having a considerable say in how much rent landlords can charge and where and what type of new housing might be built. The federal role in housing is a supportive one and often subsidizes programs administered by other tiers of government, but it does have an impact on housing outcomes.”

In addition, the new government will also have to keep an eye on soaring grocery bills and other forms of inflation creeping up. While some of the inflation is imported, no government that wants to get reelected can shrug its shoulders and appear to leave it all to the Bank of Canada.


CLIMATE CHANGE

With the Conservatives also on board with some kind of climate policy, the new government will be encouraged to pursue a bolder climate change plan.

Clearly, Canadians liked the Liberals’ stay-the-course plan with ambitious reduction targets (i.e., 40–45 per cent emissions reductions by 2030) with carbon taxes doing the heavylifting, ending at $170 per tonne by 2030 from $40 currently.

But the oilpatch is already wary that more stringent policies are coming down from Ottawa, and hopes that the government does not throw the baby out with the bathwater.

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers sent out a statement in the wee hours of the morning, noting that the oil and natural gas industry is ready to work with the federal government to rebuild the economy in a way that advances Indigenous reconciliation, achieves environmental goals and creates sustainable jobs and opportunities for all Canadians.


YADA YADA YADA

“Every molecule of natural gas and barrel of oil not produced in Canada, will be produced by other nations that do not share Canadian environmental or human rights standards,” Tim McMillan, president and CEO of CAPP, said in a statement.

COMPETITIVENESS/TRADE

While the Canadian government was distracted, the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom conjured up the AUKUS, a super group of three G20 countries to counter China. Canada was conspicuously absent from the bloc, highlighting the new partnerships being formed in a post-COVID world order and why old alliances can not be taken for granted.

It’s time for Canadian government and companies to broaden their horizons, and both the Liberals and Conservative appear to have some ideas on where to cast a wider trade net.

The Financial Post’s Bianca Bharti recently wrote about the political parties’ focus on expanding trade and investment ties with Africa and partners Down Under. It’s a start.

MAKE THE RICH PAY!

DEBT

Despite claiming to be austere stewards of the country’s finances, no party ran on reducing debt. Which means that for now, the electorate has given the new government licence to spend to fuel a robust recovery.

Rebekah Young, director of fiscal & provincial economics at Scotiabank, noted in a report published before the election results that the federal government’s accumulated deficit stood at 48 per cent of GDP ($1.1 trillion) at the end of FY21, with the Parliamentary Budget Officer projecting a gradual wane to 44 per cent of GDP by 2026 on the back of modest economic growth in the order of 1.6 per cent in outer years.

The Liberals are sticking to their go-to fiscal anchor since 2015: keeping debt on a modestly downward trajectory as a share of GDP, Young noted.

“The bulk of spending over the pandemic has been temporary, and while economic growth projections are mediocre — nominal growth projections still eclipse interest rate projections in the baseline scenario that should keep debt as a share of the economy on a downward trajectory… mathematically, though,” Young wrote in a Sep.13 report.

“From a political-economy perspective, with a growing population and aging demographics, politicians will have to work hard to ensure debt remains on a sustainable trajectory over the medium term. For now, these bigger structural questions have been punted to another day.”

Reconciliation with First Nations and childcare will emerge as key focus areas for the new government. With both the Liberals and its likely coalition partner NDP focused on the issue, there is some hope that there will be progress on both those fronts.'

Why minority governments have been good — and sometimes bad — for Canada

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau greets commuters at a Montréal Metro station the day after the federal election that saw him win re-election.

 THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

September 21, 2021 

Canada has another minority government. Is this good or bad for Canadian democracy? Mostly good — for now.

There’s a lot to like about a governing party having a minority of seats in the House of Commons, which requires that it work with opposition parties.

Minority government tempers the chronic problem in the parliamentary system of a prime minister and senior political staff having an excess of power. Instead of barrelling forward with public policy, or taking members of Parliament for granted, there is a need to spend more time consulting widely.

In a minority government, backbenchers matter more. The average MP’s votes have more impact; the government could fall if it lacks their support. Parliamentary committees are no longer dominated by the governing party. Instead, committees have more freedom to monitor the government, and to question what ministers and the Prime Minister’s Office are trying to do.

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In short, a minority government gives more power to the legislative branch, which acts as a check on the executive branch. This is precisely what Justin Trudeau was trying to avoid when he determined that an early election was warranted.

Read more: Rhetoric Check: Parliament wasn't toxic — Justin Trudeau just wants a majority

A win is a win

From Trudeau’s point of view, and that of his key political staff, a minority government is still a win. He is still prime minister, most of his ministers were re-elected and the Liberals won enough seats that there are unlikely to be threats to his leadership from within anytime soon.

Trudeau and his family wave to supporters in Montréal on election night. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

But Trudeau wanted a majority government for a reason.

The prime minister and his team will be stymied if they attempt to ram things through Parliament, like they did at the height of the pandemic.

If parliamentary committees investigate his government’s ethical lapses, like they did over the WE Charity scandal, his main recourse is to shut things down by asking the governor general to prorogue Parliament.

The next time he wants to go to the polls early, his attempted power grab will still be fresh on Canadians’ minds.

Yet we know from recent history that Canadians are likely to grow weary of the political games that occur during a minority government. From 2004 to 2011, Paul Martin headed a Liberal minority government, and Stephen Harper presided over two Conservative minorities.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper delivers a speech to supporters during a campaign stop during the 2011 election in Niagara Falls. 

THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

The acrimony that played out during that tempestuous period climaxed with the Conservative government being declared in contempt of Parliament for not disclosing information, which led to it falling on a non-confidence motion in 2011. Undeterred, Harper then campaigned on a message of the need for a “strong, stable, Conservative majority government.”

Many Canadians agreed, and initially were relieved to put the political fighting of minority governance behind them. It was a reminder that prime ministers know that what happens in Parliament rarely ignites voter outrage on the campaign hustings.
Rough waters ahead

We can expect rough waters with a minority government. There will be constant politicking. The parties will be in a perpetual election mode as they try to win every communications battle, every public opinion poll and every fundraising drive as though the election never stopped.

The media and pundits will constantly speculate about whether the government will fall, or if there will be a snap election. The Liberals will attempt to box in the opposition to call their bluff on political demands, and will pressure their own MPs into supporting bills and motions under the threat of everything being a matter of confidence.

Opposition parties will try to embarrass the government at every opportunity, and there will be a steady diet of drama and controversy for the media to report. The only thing that will truly unify the parties is fear of an election that could cost them seats and money.

Canadians may be in for a rough political ride, but sometimes good things happen when political parties are forced to collaborate.
Pearson minorities

Proponents of minority governments look fondly at the 1960s when Lester B. Pearson won back-to-back minorities that forced deal-brokering with the New Democratic Party. That era was the bedrock of the Canadian social safety net, with the Pearson Liberals advancing national medicare, Canada student loans and the Canada Pension Program.

Prime Minister Lester B. Pearson admires a poster promoting Canadian tourism in 1964. (CP PHOTO)

People forget, or may not know, that opposition parties lobbed countless accusations of political wrongdoing and mismanagement, or that the news was filled with stories of controversy and chaos.

The debate over creating the Canadian Maple Leaf flag was especially divisive. Yet half a century later, the disagreements are largely forgotten, and most Canadians are rightly proud of those programs and their flag.

There is one looming problem with minority governments: they tend to spend lots of money. Worried about losing power, the governing party wants to curry favour — and doesn’t want to stoke political unrest.

Since 2019, the Liberals have found support from the NDP, and as a result, hundreds of billions of dollars has been spent to combat the pandemic, to support Canadians and to stabilize the economy. Anyone worried about the government avoiding running massive deficits and the legacy of mounting financial debt has reason to be concerned.

Prime ministers do not like minority governments, or limits on their power. As Canada works its way through the pandemic, we’re lucky there will be a greater role for Parliament and MPs in trying to figure out the way forward.

Author

Alex Marland
Professor, Political Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland
Disclosure statement
Alex Marland is a member of the board of directors of the Institute for Research on Public Policy.
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Memorial University of Newfoundland provides funding as a founding partner of The Conversation CA.

OTTAWA PLAYBOOK - POLITICO ARCHIVE
Tuesday, 9/21/21

Canada to Trudeau: Get back to work

By NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY
09/21/2021 06:02 AM

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WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK. I’m your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey. Start the clock on another Liberal minority government. Justin Trudeau's midsummer gambit didn't deliver the majority he hoped, but he shook off an early-campaign funk that appeared to threaten his prospects for re-election. There will be questions about the C$600 million election and plenty for each leader to answer for — within their party, and to Canadians.

POLITICO'S ANDY BLATCHFORD and ZI-ANN LUM have early coverage of the results.

Here's how it all shook out.

DRIVING THE DAY




Cole Burston/Getty Images

SAME RESULT-ish — Election night started like they always do: interminable early polls reported with a mix of breathlessness and knowing humor. Soon enough, the first local winner emerged when Natural Resources Minister SEAMUS O'REGAN had built up a sufficient lead in St. John's.

When most of Canada's polls closed at 9:30 ET, LOUIS PLAMONDON was among Quebec's first declared winners. Plamondon, an MP for the Bloc Québécois since 1984, is the dean of the House of Commons. He actually predates the Bloc, having won his first two campaigns under BRIAN MULRONEY's Progressive Conservative banner.

At 10:22 ET, CTV called the election for the Liberals. Two minutes later, CBC Radio beat its own television counterparts to the same conclusion. At 11:13, CBC called it a minority.

QUICK QUOTES — Liberal leader JUSTIN TRUDEAU was gracious. Conservative leader ERIN O'TOOLE warned that Liberals want to go back to the polls less than two years from now. NDP leader JAGMEET SINGH set himself up as the balance of power in the next House of Commons.

— Trudeau: "I hear you when you say you just want to get back to the things you love and not worry about this pandemic or about an election. Your members of Parliament of all stripes will have your back in this crisis and beyond. Canadians are able to get around any obstacle and that is exactly what we will continue to do."

— O'Toole: "If Justin Trudeau thinks he can threaten Canadians with another election in 18 months, the Conservative Party will be ready. Whenever that day comes, I will be ready to lead Canada's Conservatives. We worked hard, we made progress, but the job is not done yet."

— Singh: "Friends, I want you to know that our fight will continue. I also want you to know that we are going to keep on fighting to make sure that the super wealthy pay their fair share."

THE SEAT COUNT — When Governor General MARY MAY SIMON dissolved Parliament, the Liberals held 155 seats. When Trudeau took the stage after 1 ET this morning, his party stood to win 156 seats. The Tories left Ottawa with 119 seats, and could return with 119 — just shy of the number they won in 2019. The NDP were up one seat to 25. The Bloc was up two to 34.

Those numbers will likely change by the time all the votes are counted, but the nearly identical seat count left pundits wondering what it was all for. Former Conservative deputy leader LISA RAITT called the vote a "$600-million cabinet shuffle," a reference to Elections Canada's cost estimate for a campaign that will undoubtedly produce a new frontbench.

But surely there's more to this election than that.

DIFFERENT POLITICS — The story of the 2021 campaign can be told in subtle shifts — a smattering of upsets and flipped ridings, the pivotal impact of smaller parties, the loss of cabinet ministers and elevation of at least one new Liberal voice on the prairies.

— Cabinet ministers gone down: At least two front benchers were defeated. Gender Equality Minister MARYAM MONSEF lost to Tory MICHELLE FERRERI in Peterborough-Kawartha, a rare instance in which that riding didn't vote for the winning party. Ferreri, a newcomer to politics, made headlines for campaigning while partially vaccinated.

Fisheries Minister BERNADETTE JORDAN also fell to a Tory, RICK PERKINS, in Nova Scotia's South Shore-St. Margarets. And a third cabmin, Minister for Seniors DEB SCHULTE in the 905 riding of King-Vaughan, was trailing when Playbook last checked. That's three women at a cabinet table where gender parity is a priority for the prime minister.

— Key vote splits: Playbook was monitoring the potential rise of the People's Party, the cratering of the Green Party vote, stubbornly strong Bloc Québécois support and potentially soft NDP support that could flee to the Liberals. Those splits did matter.

→ In Calgary Skyview, popular city councillor GEORGE CHAHAL pulled out a tight victory against Tory incumbent JAG SAHOTA, fulfilling his promise to Calgarians that he was their local ticket to government. The People's Party vote surpassed Chahal's margin of victory. He'll almost certainly serve as a cabinet minister.

→ The Greens didn't run candidates in 86 ridings, including key districts in B.C.'s Lower Mainland where they covered the margin of victory in 2019. The lack of a Green option combined with a modest People's Party showing appears to have delivered Cloverdale-Langley City to JOHN ALDAG, the former Liberal MP who beat Tory TAMARA JANSEN in a rematch.

The same combo appears to have made the difference in the hotly contested 905 riding of Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill. Tory LEONA ALLESLEV, who was first elected as a Liberal in 2015, lost to LEAH TAYLOR ROY in another rematch. Trudeau visited that riding more than once this campaign.

— Kitchener surprise: Playbook paid a visit last week to MIKE MORRICE, the Green candidate in the tech-heavy city who was the talk of the networks on election night. Morrice finished a strong second in 2019, but surged after Liberal RAJ SAINI dropped out of the race (and still racked up 17 percent of votes because his name remained on the ballot).

The Greens had their most disappointing night in at least a decade. Party leader ANNAMIE PAUL finished fourth in her own riding, and PAUL MANLY was locked in a three-way fight on Vancouver Island. Morrice's win was a bright spot.

— What didn't matter: One of JAGMEET SINGH's greatest embarrassments on the campaign trail was an awkward moment in Winnipeg when regional First Nations leaders endorsed NDP incumbent NIKI ASHTON's Liberal opponent, SHIRLEY ROBINSON, in northern Manitoba. Ashton still won handily.

Quebec Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT dropped a bomb on English language debate day. He endorsed an O'Toole government over the Liberal alternative, dismissing Trudeau — and the NDP and Greens — as "dangerous" to Quebec's interests. The boost didn't show up at the polls. Tories won 10 seats in 2019, and are on track for 10 this time.

ALUPA CLARKE, one of O'Toole's most trusted advisers in Quebec, lost a three-way fight in which Bloc incumbent JULIE VIGNOLA came out on top in Beauport—Limoilou.

— Failed rebellions: The number of People's Party signs on private lawns, particularly in southwestern Ontario, stirred interest — might CHELSEA HILLIER, the daughter of Queen's Park politician RANDY HILLIER, pull off an upset in Elgin-Middlesex-London? In the end, Tory KAREN VECCHIO won a third term with about half of all votes cast.

In Banff-Airdrie, Alberta, Ontario transplant and former Tory DEREK SLOAN hoped to send incumbent BLAKE RICHARDS a message by mounting an anti-establishment campaign that he said would culminate in a new political party. Sloan ended up with single-digit support. His wife, Jennifer, finished dead last in his former riding back east.

The People's Party failed to win any seats. Leader MAXIME BERNIER lost in the Beauce, Que, riding where he served four terms as MP. But more than three-quarters of a million voters picked the right-wing populist upstart.

BIG CITY SWEEP — The big knock against ANDREW SCHEER's failed attempt to beat Trudeau two years ago was that he couldn't crack the cluster of suburban ridings around two of Canada's largest cities. O'Toole designed a sprawling platform, including a credible climate change plan, engineered to win where Scheer fell short.

— The 905: Tory COLIN CARRIE held Oshawa, and O'Toole himself came out on top in the 905's eastern Durham Region flank. But the Conservatives lost at least two ridings to Liberals in the Greater Toronto Area: Alleslev's seat and a Markham riding held by BOB SAROYA. They should still pick up Schulte's riding in King-Vaughan, but veteran party operative MELISSA LANTSMAN's win in Thornhill is a rare spot of blue in a sea of red.

— The 604: Tories also lost at least two Lower Mainland seats to Liberals, a region where O'Toole held seven campaign events and hoped to make gains. Conservatives did manage to flip at least five Liberal ridings — all in rural areas.

TOO CLOSE TO CALL — A shrinking clutch of ridings were still up for grabs as the sun came up today: Brome-Missisquoi; Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame; Davenport; Edmonton Centre; Fredericton; Hamilton Mountain; King-Vaughan; Kitchener-Conestoga; Longueuil-Charles-LeMoyne; Nanaimo-Ladysmith; Niagara Centre; Parkdale-High Park; Richmond Centre; Sault Ste. Marie; Spadina-Fort York; Trois-Rivières; Vancouver Granville; and Vaughan-Woodbridge.

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STUDENT VOTE — CIVIX, a charity dedicated to fostering civic engagement among young Canadians, ran an adjacent federal election for students who weren't eligible to vote in the real thing — 700,000 students at 5,000 schools across Canada. They also elected the Liberal party with a razor-thin minority — 117 seats — on the strength of just 24 percent of the vote.

The NDP finished second with 107 seats and 29 percent. The Tories won 91 seats with 25 percent. Now that's a first-past-the-post result worthy of deep study in the classroom.

The students weren't exactly a microcosm of the real election's voting trends. Mail-in votes aside, the Liberals scored 32 percent on election night, behind the Tories at about 34. New Democrats trailed with just shy of 18 percent.

— Meanwhile, in Alberta: The Calgary Herald's DON BRAID says Premier JASON KENNEY's performance of late is a "hotter topic" than any federal vote: "It’s hard to see how Kenney stays on for much longer, with the public bitterly angry and so many of his own people finally united — around the desire to see him out."
ASK US ANYTHING

What is happening? Questions about the results? Send them our way.
CAMPAIGN CONVERSATIONS

THE POLLSTERS — It's way too early to grade pollsters on their predictions, because a little more than a million mail-in ballots — which appear to favor the Liberals and NDP — will only be counted starting today. Beware any hasty conclusions about polling hits and misses on social media. Playbook will report back after all the votes are in.

But we do have some early analysis from our friends at Abacus Data ...
ABACUS INSIGHT

Since the start of this campaign, DAVID COLETTO from our polling partner Abacus Data has joined Playbook daily to share a data point on the 2021 federal election.

Today: Polling told us we were headed toward this “déjà vu election.”

Perhaps most striking, the Conservatives could not dent the Liberal fortress around Toronto. Despite a 4-point drop in Liberal vote share across Ontario, in the GTA, the vote split was almost exactly the same as in 2019.

As our polling has shown, the desire for change was almost exactly the same as in 2019. Mr. O'Toole and Mr. Singh effectively argued that this was an "unwanted election," but they did not effectively create a desire for change.
THE HERLE BURLY




Backroom strategists Scott Reid, Jenni Byrne and David Herle. | Courtesy of Air Quotes Media

Catch DAVID HERLE, SCOTT REID and JENNI BYRNE on an extended edition of the Curse of Politics podcast later this morning.
MEDIA ROOM

— “Is a toothless United Nations relevant?” Read RYAN HEATH’s Global Insider newsletter and subscribe to his podcast for all the goods on this week’s U.N. General Assembly gathering.

— On The Decibel podcast this morning, JOHN IBBITSON and KRISTY KIRKUP break down election results.

— The Big Story podcast takes on the question many are asking: Did this election matter.

— Over on his blog, STEPHEN SAIDEMAN explains why he has a problem with retired military officers making political endorsements.

— PAUL WELLS in Maclean’s: “The rest of Trudeau’s year will almost certainly be more pleasant than the rest of Erin O’Toole’s.”
PROZONE

If you are a Pro subscriber, catch our Canada PM newsletter: Priorities for Sept. 21: Covid and climate crisis.

In other news for Pros:
— What Trudeau’s win means for Canada-U.S. relations.
— Manufacturers urge Biden to drop vaccine IP waiver push.
— What Biden needs to prove in his speech to the U.N.
— Britain and other small island states call out big polluters.
— Boris Johnson defends ‘global warming skeptic’ trade minister.
— Hochul backs two major new transmission lines, including one from Canada, to bring clean energy into New York City.
TRIVIA

Monday’s answer: Seven people have held the position of Chief Electoral Officer since it was established in 1920.

Props to ALYSON FAIR, MICHAEL MACDONALD, MICHAEL HORNAK and BOB GORDON.

Tuesday’s question: When is Canada’s next fixed election date?

Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Clarification: In all that talk about nothing in Monday’s newsletter, we included a Washington Post link from the 2019 federal election. For the record, here’s AMANDA COLETTA on the 2021 campaign.

Playbook couldn’t happen without Luiza Ch. Savage, editor Sue Allan, Zi-Ann Lum and Andy Blatchford.

Follow us on Twitter
Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey
Sue Allan @susan_allan
Andy Blatchford @AndyBlatchford
Maura Forrest @MauraForrest
Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum
POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY

Nick Taylor-Vaisey covers Canadian federal politics for POLITICO in Ottawa. He’s written breaking news, long features and morning newsletters — all in the pursuit of helping readers understand government policy and the politics that drives it behind the scenes. He comes to POLITICO from Maclean’s magazine, and has bounced between Toronto and Ottawa for his entire adult life. He served a three-year stint as president of the Canadian Association of Journalists from 2015-2018.

He spends his days buried in spreadsheets, filing access-to-information requests and poring over documents tabled in Parliament. He once interviewed a federal cabinet minister on an airplane (they were both passengers in coach, and a deadline loomed). He’s so far managed to visit 41 states (not that he’s counting).

Nick lives in Ottawa with his wife.

UK
Justin Trudeau’s reversal will make British Conservatives wary of an early election

The Canadian prime minister’s failure to win a majority is a reminder of the risks of snap contests.

By Stephen Bush

21 September 2021

Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau pictured after his narrow election victory. 

(Photo by ANDREJ IVANOV/AFP via Getty Images)

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have won re-election, but fallen short of a majority. They will remain in office but will be reliant on the support of other parties, chiefly the left-wing NDP (Megan Gibson profiled their leader, Jagmeet Singh, for the New Statesman here). They will finish comfortably ahead of the Conservatives in terms of seats in parliament, but are highly likely to finish behind them in terms of votes.

In other words, it’s exactly the same as the 2019 election result. Even the same familiar scandals reared their head, with Trudeau once again facing questions about what exactly his government promised engineering giant SNC-Lavalin, and a new picture of him blacking up in his late 20s surfacing. The only difference is that the Conservative leader, Erin O’Toole, had a better campaign than his predecessor Andrew Scheer, and might live to fight another day.

The same result, but an unpredictable ride to get there: at times it appeared Trudeau might lose an election that began with a comfortable Liberal lead. He never managed to convince voters that he had a compelling reason for calling the snap contest, other than his own political interests and his party’s opinion poll lead.

It means that Canada remains one of the few countries where the established centre-left party has remained in office in the post-2008 era. But here in the UK it’s more likely the centre-right that will look to this contest for lessons. In part that’s because of the greater and deeper social ties: it’s much more common to bump into a UK Conservative staffer who has spent time on election campaigns and parliamentary offices in Canada, Australia or New Zealand than it is a Labour, SNP or Liberal Democrat one who has done the same; and also more common to meet a Canadian, Australian or New Zealander currently working in Conservative politics than the other way round. (There are notable exceptions to that in all the progressive parties, they’re just less widespread.)

When you talk to Labour MPs, they are still, in large numbers, convinced that the next UK election will come, at the latest, in 2023 and perhaps even 2022. But talk to their Conservative counterparts, including ones with the ear of the Prime Minister, and they say: look at what’s happened in Canada. Look at how unpredictable elections are and how much voters dislike ones without a clear rationale. One way or another, Germany’s election is going to provide a further reminder that elections are volatile and risky for all the parties involved: and while that lesson hasn’t been internalised in the Labour Party, it looks, at the moment, to be pretty well established in Conservative circles.

What Justin Trudeau’s narrow election victory means for Canada

A snap contest that few voters wanted has left the electorate even more disenchanted than before.

By Megan Gibson

21 September 2021

ANDREJ IVANOV/AFP via Getty Images

With the majority of the ballots in Canada’s snap election now counted, Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau will retain his position as prime minister. But this was a contest without any real winners. Though the Liberals managed to capture the most seats, they are once again far below the 170 needed to form a majority government. Their opponents, meanwhile, failed to translate a mid-campaign poll surge into power – leaving Canada arguably more divided than when the election was called.

Let’s start with Trudeau. The Liberal leader called the election five weeks ago – two years earlier than scheduled – when polls looked favourable, with the aim of transforming his minority government into a majority. It’s a strategy that had previously worked for Canadian prime ministers (including Justin’s father, Pierre Trudeau, in 1974). But almost immediately after the announcement was made, the Liberals saw their lead shrink as support for the opposition Conservative Party and the progressive New Democratic Party (NDP) surged.

Meanwhile, Trudeau struggled to gain traction with his message that the election was vital in order to push through a successful pandemic recovery strategy. Among voters, there was little appetite to head to the polls in the middle of a fourth wave of Covid-19 and Trudeau’s strategy was widely viewed as a cynical grab for power. At many points throughout the campaign, it looked as though the Liberals might lose to the Conservatives altogether.

In the wake of the election, Trudeau will still need support from another party in order to push policies through parliament, and his campaign saw him make significant policy pledges on issues from childcare to climate change. Meanwhile, two of his cabinet ministers – Bernadette Jordan, who was minister of Fisheries, Oceans and the Canadian Coast Guard in the last parliament, and Maryam Monsef, minister of rural economic development – lost their seats to Conservative candidates.

Internal Liberal conversation is soon likely to shift towards who will succeed Trudeau as party leader. Early whispers point to either the deputy prime minister and finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, or Mark Carney, the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, as potential successors.

The Conservatives under leader Erin O’Toole also failed to perform well. While polls indicated that voters approved of O’Toole, who ran a campaign that shifted his party towards the centre, this wasn’t enough. The Conservatives won the popular vote but they remain in opposition, not power. With the emergence of the right-wing People’s Party of Canada (PPC), which won 5 per cent of the vote, though not any seats, there is bound to be a push from the Conservative base to rethink O’Toole's strategy – and perhaps even O’Toole himself.

Even Jagmeet Singh, the leader of the progressive NDP party, wasn’t able to capitalise on the momentum that he built throughout the campaign. Though the party increased its seat total slightly, the election wasn’t the dramatic advance Singh hoped for. The NDP, long thought of as Canada’s third party, is once again in fourth place, behind the nationalist Bloc Québécois. Singh still has enough leverage to push the Liberals to the left on key issues, particularly those Trudeau noisily campaigned for, as the PM will require NDP support in parliament. But as I wrote last week in a profile of the charismatic Singh, merely influencing the agenda, rather than setting it, is an unsatisfactory position.

But perhaps the biggest losers of all, in an election that so few wanted, are the voters themselves. Although the result is apparently the status quo – the parliamentary arithmetic is remarkably similar to 2019 – this was an ugly campaign marked by violence at protests, the politicisation of vaccine mandates and palpable anger that the contest was taking place at all. Meanwhile, indigenous rights, a huge issue in the wake of the discovery of hundreds of bodies on former residential schools earlier this year, received little attention from the campaigns.

Few Canadians will feel this election has changed much for the better. They went into this election begrudgingly. Many will come out of it more alienated, more disenchanted and potentially more apathetic. It’s a result no one wanted to see.

THIS IS EVEN MORE THE CASE AFTER THE ELECTION RESULTS, ONLY THE NDP GAINED SEATS INCLUDING ANOTHER ONE FOR TWO IN EDMONTON IN THE HEART OF TORY COUNTRY

Jagmeet Singh: the rise of Canada’s kingmaker

The New Democratic Party’s youthful leader is, once again, set to shape the agenda of the next Canadian government.

By Megan Gibson

17 September 2021

Carlos Osorio/Toronto Star via Getty Images

Justin Trudeau’s self-described “sunny ways” have clouded over, and Jagmeet Singh hasn’t stopped talking about it. Over the course of Canada’s whirlwind election campaign this summer, the biggest thorn in the beleaguered prime minister’s side arguably hasn’t been the official opposition leader, the Conservative Party’s Erin O’Toole. Instead, it’s been Singh, the dapper, charismatic leader of the progressive New Democratic Party (NDP), who has doggedly — in campaign ads, in stump speeches, in leader debates — castigated Trudeau on his failures in office.

For Singh, drawing a firm distinction between himself and the Liberal Party leader makes sense. Both politicians appeared on the national stage as rising stars, brimming with optimism and progressive promise. Yet while Singh is still riding the crest of his popularity wave, Trudeau’s could be about to crash. Once Canadians cast their ballots on 20 September, there’s a not-so-small chance that Trudeau could be out of a job after calling a miscalculated snap election five weeks ago. Singh, meanwhile, is poised to become the next government’s kingmaker.

A former criminal defence lawyer, Singh moved into Ontario provincial politics in 2011, where he made a name for himself by pushing policies on increasing police accountability. Then, just six years later aged 38, he made the leap to the federal stage by decisively winning an NDP leadership race. He also became the first visible minority to head a major federal party in Canada (Singh is Indo-Canadian and a practicing Sikh).

That momentum, however, soon stalled. In the 2019 federal election, the NDP under Singh had its worst electoral performance in 15 years. Although voters think of it as Canada’s third party – rather than a possible contender for government – upsets aren’t inconceivable. In 2011’s election, under the leadership of the late Jack Layton, the NDP became the official opposition party. Singh’s first federal election, however, saw it downgraded from third-party status to fourth behind the nationalist Bloc Québécois.

Yet the political landscape in Canada is much different in 2021 – and so too is the NDP. Singh has a stronger team in place and the party is better funded. Meanwhile, he has capitalised on his relative youth, garnering a reputation for connecting with a younger demographic, comfortably embracing platforms such as TikTok and Twitch. His enthusiasm is contagious. A CBC poll ahead of the English-language debate on 9 September found that of all the party leaders, Singh was rated the most trustworthy and most competent.

In spite of this, Singh’s ability to translate personal popularity into votes for his party is unclear ahead of Monday’s 20 September vote. The NDP remains firmly in third place across polls. While Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system doesn’t do the NDP any favours, perhaps neither do the party’s biggest supporters. “Are young people going to break Jagmeet’s heart, is the question,” says David McGrane, a professor of politics at the University of Saskatchewan and the author of The New NDP: Moderation, Modernisation, and Political Marketing. “If you’re putting all your chips into young people voting, are you actually [in a] comfortable [spot]?”

That’s not to say that the NDP hasn’t been able to move the needle. Indeed, after two years of propping up Trudeau’s Liberal minority government, Singh can make legitimate claims about influencing policy. Many credit Trudeau’s most progressive campaign promises as stalwart NDP pledges. “If the country ends up with $10-a-day childcare or a $15 federal minimum wage, it was because the NDP pushed for it,” says David Moscrop, author of Too Dumb for Democracy? and political theorist. “That’s not nothing.”

While the race for prime minister remains too close to call for either Trudeau or O’Toole, it’s a relatively safe bet that the NDP will comfortably increase its seat count – and Singh will likely continue to play a pivotal role in shaping the policy of the next government. For political analysts and those within the party, that result will mark a victory.

Yet it also raises a deeper question: if electoral success in 2021 means that the NDP will essentially play the same role it did after taking a beating in 2019, what does that say about the party’s purpose? Is it enough for the NDP to continue to be a “policy farm for the Liberals”, as Moscrop puts it, influencing rather than setting the agenda? Or is it time to reassess the party’s ambitions? It’s a question that the NDP – and Singh – will have to grapple with at some point, no matter the outcome of this election.

World News | 17 Indo-Canadians Triumph in Canada's Snap Elections as Trudeau Fails to Win Majority

Seventeen Indo-Canadians, including NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan, won Canada's parliamentary elections on Tuesday with Liberal Party leader and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau returning to power in the snap polls.


Agency News PTI| Sep 21, 2021




Toronto, Sep 21 (PTI) Seventeen Indo-Canadians, including NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan, won Canada's parliamentary elections on Tuesday with Liberal Party leader and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau returning to power in the snap polls.

Canadians gave 49-year-old Trudeau's Liberal Party a victory in Monday's parliamentary elections, but his gamble to win a majority of seats failed and nearly mirrored the result of two years ago.

The Liberals won the most seats of any party. Trudeau's Liberals were leading or elected in 156 seats — one less than they won in 2019, and 14 short of the 170 needed for a majority in the House of Commons, according to Canadian media reports.

This is Trudeau's third federal election win, but his critics say the poll was a waste of time.

The Conservatives have held onto their main opposition status and are expected to win about 122 seats, BBC reported.

"There are still votes to be counted but what we've seen tonight is millions of Canadians have chosen a progressive plan," Trudeau told supporters in Montreal in the early hours of Tuesday morning.

"You elected a government that will fight for you and deliver for you," he said. Congratulating Trudeau, Jagmeet said he would "keep fighting to make sure that the super wealthy pay their fair share".

"We're gonna fight for you. We've seen you. We've heard your stories. We're going to fight for you," he said.

All three Indo-Canadian ministers - Harjit Sajjan, Anita Anand and Bardish Chagger - in the dissolved Cabinet emerged victorious as did 42-year-old New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh from Burnaby South.

Jagmeet won by nearly 40 per cent vote share.

“I want to say that Canadians know that you can count on the New Democrats to continue fighting for you. As we've fought for you in the pandemic when times are difficult when people were struggling when people were worried about their future. We were there for you,” Jagmeet said in his concession speech late on Monday night.

Jagmeet made history by becoming the first non-white leader of a federal party in Canada in 2017. Recently, he picked up the endorsement of a fellow left-of-centre politician, US Senator and former presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders.

Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan was re-elected from Vancouver-South, with nearly 49 per cent of the vote share, drawing even more votes than his last decisive victory in the riding he grew up in and still calls home, CTV News reported.

Sajjan was re-elected despite the cloud of misconduct allegations hanging over the Canadian Forces and the government's handling of the situation in Afghanistan, the report added.

“My community knows me,” he said. “When we talk about things that happened 10, 15, 20, 30 years ago — obviously we're going to take action. And now that more women are coming forward, having the confidence to come forward, yes we're taking action.”

The Liberals' Anand was declared the winner in Oakville with a nearly 46 per cent vote share; a significant development for Canada's vaccine minister. Anand was a rookie MP after winning in 2019 when she was appointed, City News Toronto reported.

She quickly became in charge of the country's efforts to secure COVID-19 vaccines and was often on the campaign trail with Trudeau, it said.

"I'm just ecstatic,” she said, thanking the volunteers who had worked “extremely hard as a team for five weeks straight,” she was quoted as saying by the Oakville News. In her role as former Minister of Public Services and Procurement, 54-year-old Anand played a very public role in the Liberal response to the health crisis.

Liberal incumbent Chagger was declared the winner of Waterloo with a 44.8 per cent vote share.

“This is a tremendous community to be able to represent,” 41-year-old Chagger was quoted as saying by the CTV News.

“This election was really about a mandate. Where do Canadians want to go? Does the environment matter? Do social programmes matter? Do infrastructure investments matter? And clearly, they do,” Chagger said.

Among other winners from the Liberal Party are Kamal Khera from Brampton West (55 per cent), Ruby Sahota from Brampton North (54 per cent), Sonia Sidhu from Brampton South (50 per cent), Maninder Sidhu from Brampton East (55 per cent), Sukh Dhaliwal from Surrey-Newton (54 per cent).

George Chahal from Calgary Skyview in Alberta (42 per cent), Arif Virani from Parkdale-High Park (42 per cent), Randeep Sarai from Surrey Centre (44 per cent), Anju Dhillon from Dorval-Lachine-LaSalle (52 per cent), Chandra Arya from Nepean (44 per cent), and First-time candidate Iqwinder Gaheer from Mississauga-Malton (53 per cent).

Meanwhile, among the Conservative Party, Tim Uppal from Edmonton Mill Woods (38 per cent) and Jasraj Singh Hallan from Calgary Forest Lawn seat (44 per cent) have retained their seats.

Canada hosts one of the largest Indian diasporas in the world, numbering 1.6 million people, which accounts for more than three per cent of its total population.

The diaspora, whose main concentration is in the Greater Toronto Area, the Greater Vancouver area, Montreal (Quebec), Calgary (Alberta), Ottawa (Ontario) and Winnipeg (Manitoba) has done commendably well in every sector in Canada, according to the information on the website of the Indian High Commission in Canada.

The election, which took place during a fourth pandemic wave in Canada, was the most expensive in the country's history, costing some 600 million Canadian dollars, the report added.

(This is an unedited and auto-generated story from Syndicated News feed, LatestLY Staff may not have modified or edited the content body)

Conservative support down in Alberta; Liberals take a seat as 3 others up for grabs

By Emily Mertz Global News
Posted September 20, 2021 11:40 pm
Updated September 21, 2021 7:14 am

As of 11:30 p.m. Monday, support for Conservatives in Alberta was down about 14 per cent since the last federal election.

READ MORE: Live Canada election results 2021: Real-time results in the federal election

Approximately 55 per cent of Alberta votes were for the Conservatives, 15 per cent for the Liberals, 19 per cent for the New Democrats and 7.6 per cent for the People’s Party of Canada.

READ MORE: Maxime Bernier attends Calgary ‘freedom rally’ in last weekend of federal campaign

Alberta went into the 2021 federal election with one NDP seat surrounded by a sea of Tory blue.

While the majority of ridings remained Conservative, some tight races in the major cities are in jeopardy as two Liberal candidates and one NDP candidate are neck-and-neck with their respective Tory incumbents.

Liberal candidate and former Calgary city councillor George Chahal was projected to win over Conservative incumbent Jagdeep (Jag) Sahota in Calgary-Skyview.

Chahal pointed to his work on city council with all levels of government when talking about how he will represent Calgary and Alberta in government.

“We’ve shown that when all levels of government work together, we can get a lot done,” Chahal told reporters. “We’ve had strong partnerships municipally with the federal government in building the Green Line (LRT) and major infrastructure projects we’ve delivered to Calgary.

2:21 Conservative support drops in Alberta, PPC and Kenney a factor: political scientist

“We can continue on that work but we need to make sure that we are working together for the best interest of Calgarians, and we’ve got to put partisanship to the side and focus on delivering for our city and province.”

But, as of Monday night, the vote counts in Edmonton Centre and Edmonton Griesbach were too close to call and mail-in ballots will need to be counted in order to make a final call.

Canada election 2021: Results still tight in Edmonton Mill Woods

Canada election 2021: Results still tight in Edmonton Centre

Canada election 2021: Results still tight in Edmonton Griesbach

Liberal candidate Randy Boissonnault is neck and neck with Conservative incumbent James Cumming in Edmonton Centre. Boissonnault won the seat for the Liberals in 2015 before losing it to Cumming in 2019.

In a speech on Facebook Live early Tuesday morning, Boissonnault thanked everyone who helped him with his campaign and said while his team knew recapturing the seat would require heavy lifting, “we still don’t yet know if we’ve lifted quite enough to win.”

“Whatever happens tomorrow, later this week, tonight — we’ve succeeded,” he said as the race in his riding remained too close to call.

Boissonnault said he believes win or lose, voters in his riding showed “progressives are here” and their “voices will be heard.”

He suggested the federal Liberals have taken a different approach to dealing with COVID-19 than federal Conservatives have called for and that he believes many in his riding were not happy that “our calls for compassionate, science-based solutions to the challenges of our time were openly mocked by the provincial conservative government.”

3 Edmonton ridings still undeclared by Global News on Tuesday morning

Blake Desjarlais is currently leading in Edmonton Griesbach for the NDP, ahead of Conservative incumbent Kerry Diotte. His win would bring Alberta’s total NDP seats to two: NDP incumbent Heather McPherson is projected to take Edmonton Strathcona again.

“I’m hopeful that I won’t be the only New Democrat going to Ottawa from Alberta,” McPherson said Monday night.

The riding of Edmonton-Mill Woods was also close late Monday night, with a tight race between Conservative incumbent Tim Uppal and Liberal candidate and former Edmonton city councillor Ben Henderson.

0:47  O’Toole refuses to comment on Kenney’s handling of Alberta’s COVID-19 crisis

Former Saskatchewan premier and election night analyst for Global News, Brad Wall, wondered if Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole’s moderate, middle-of-the-road platform pushed the conservative base to the PPC.

“It’s going to be very important for the Conservative party to reach out to their base in Alberta and Saskatchewan,” Wall said.

“People in the base will be saying: ‘All right, we tried it this way, we significantly modified the platform, adopted a carbon tax as part of our policy, and we’re still here, and the map’s still blue in these provinces, but it didn’t work.

“I think there will be some pressure and some challenge for Mr. O’Toole and the Conservative caucus to make sure that base stays, that it isn’t starting to look at other options.”

READ MORE: Canada election 2021: What are the Alberta ridings to watch for a possible political flip?

As of 11:30 p.m. Monday night, the PPC came in second in five Alberta ridings: Bow River, Fort McMurray-Cold Lake, Lakeland, Peace River-Westlock and Yellowhead.

Outgoing Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi pointed out that the Conservatives still won nearly all the seats in Saskatchewan and Alberta.

“The base is still there.

“Conservatives in this part of the world are always worried that base is going to disappear and it never does. They were worried about the Reform party from before.”

Nenshi said the Conservatives could make two mistakes coming out of this campaign with a lower popular vote in Western Canada.

“The first one is to do that retention hook, and the second one is to think you actually moderated the party and you failed, because that platform was a surprise to everybody, even people in the party didn’t know that was happening.

“There has only been 36 days of the Conservatives having a conversation about how they can re-tool as a party that is about workers rights, about helping people get ahead, about anti-elite party,” Nenshi said.

“I don’t think this is a failure, they just didn’t get enough time to see if it actually works or not.”

1:00 Trudeau targets O’Toole over Alberta’s COVID-19 crisis

Wall suggested there wouldn’t be a lot of support for that kind of platform from the base in Saskatchewan and Alberta.

“A lot of the base wasn’t real happy with it, especially the carbon tax,” he said.

“At least I think it should be on the radar for the leader and the caucus to be concerned about that. I think they ought to be mindful of the feelings of the Tory base in Western Canada,” Wall said.

READ MORE: Trudeau says Alberta, Saskatchewan made ‘wrong choices’ during COVID-19 pandemic

Political experts also raised Premier Jason Kenney’s handling of the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and whether or not that may have impacted support for the federal Conservatives in the election.

“COVID-19 was the predominant conversation,” McPherson said about election campaigning.

“And we heard a lot about how the provincial government has failed to protect Albertans. We heard a lot of concern about the response to COVID-19 and we heard a lot of people asking why we were having an election during the fourth wave of a global health pandemic.”
1:58Calls grow for Kenney to resign over Alberta’s COVID-19 crisisCalls grow for Kenney to resign over Alberta’s COVID-19 crisis

–with files from Adam Toy, Global News

 

Canada election: Mail-in ballots could play pivotal role

There have been five provincial elections during this pandemic and in each one mail-in ballots played a pivotal role. As of Sunday night, Elections Canada has received over 932,000 votes by mail. None of the votes will be counted tonight. David Akin has more.