New data suggests 1 in 44 US children affected by autism

By LINDSEY TANNER

FILE - A student arrives as the sun rises during the first day of school on Wednesday, Aug. 4, 2021 at Freeman Elementary School in Flint, Mich. New autism numbers released Thursday, Dec. 2 suggest more U.S. children are being diagnosed with the developmental condition and at younger ages. (Jake May/The Flint Journal via AP, File)

New autism numbers released Thursday suggest more U.S. children are being diagnosed with the developmental condition and at younger ages.

In an analysis of 2018 data from nearly a dozen states, researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that among 8-year-olds, 1 in 44 had been diagnosed with autism. That rate compares with 1 in 54 identified with autism in 2016.

U.S. autism numbers have been on the rise for several years, but experts believe that reflects more awareness and wider availability of services to treat the condition rather than a true increase in the number of affected children.

A separate CDC report released Thursday said that children were 50% more likely to be diagnosed with autism by age 4 in 2018 than in 2014.

“There is some progress being made and the earlier kids get identified, the earlier they can access services that they might need to improve their developmental outcome,” said CDC researcher and co-author Kelly Shaw.

Geraldine Dawson, director of Duke University’s Center for Autism and Brain Development, said the new estimate is similar to one found in research based on screening a large population of children rather than on those already diagnosed. As such, she said it may be closer to reflecting the true state of autism in U.S. children than earlier estimates.

The CDC reports are based on data from counties and other communities in 11 states — some with more urban neighborhoods, where autism rates tend to be higher. The rates are estimates and don’t necessarily reflect the entire U.S. situation, the authors said.

Autism rates varied widely — from 1 in 26 in California, where services are plentiful, to 1 in 60 in Missouri.

Overall, autism prevalence was similar across racial and ethnic lines, but rates were higher among Black children in two sites, Maryland and Minnesota. Until recently, U.S. data showed prevalence among white children was higher.

At a third site, Utah, rates were higher among children from lower-income families than those from wealthier families, reversing a longstanding trend, said report co-author Amanda Bakian, a University of Utah researcher who oversees the CDC’s autism surveillance in that state.

Bakian said that likely reflects more coverage for autism services by Medicaid and private health insurers.

___

Follow AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner at @LindseyTanner.

LAW IN THE NEGATIVE

Judge blocks Texas law to stop social media firms from banning users
By James Pollard, The Texas Tribune

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on Sept. 9 signed into law legislation to ban platforms with more than 50 million monthly users from removing a user over a “viewpoint.” File Photo by Jemal Countess/UPI | 

Dec. 1 (UPI) -- A federal judge on Wednesday blocked a Texas law that seeks to restrict how social media companies moderate their content and was championed by Republicans who say the platforms are biased against conservatives.

The law, signed by Gov. Greg Abbott on Sept. 9, would ban platforms with more than 50 million monthly users in the U.S. from removing a user over a "viewpoint" and require them to publicly report information about content removal and account suspensions. It was set to take effect Dec. 2.

In his ruling, U.S. District Judge Robert Pitman wrote that the First Amendment protects social media platforms' right to moderate content and rejected the defendants' argument that such companies are "common carriers." Pitman also ruled that some aspects of the law were "prohibitively vague."

"This Court is convinced that social media platforms, or at least those covered by [House Bill] 20, curate both users and content to convey a message about the type of community the platform seeks to foster and, as such, exercise editorial discretion over their platform's content," Pitman wrote.

NetChoice and the Computer and Communications Industry Association - two trade groups representing some of the biggest names in e-commerce and social media, including Google and Twitter - filed a suit to block the law in September.

The presidents of both organizations told reporters then that the state cannot force platforms to host content that violates their community standards. In their lawsuit, the trade associations argue Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act protects websites from laws "imposing liability for good faith actions to restrict access to or availability of content that they consider objectionable."

In a Wednesday press release, NetChoice President and CEO Steve DelBianco called the ruling a victory for free speech.

"[House Bill] 20 would unleash a tidal wave of offensive content and hate speech crashing onto users, creators, and advertisers," he said in a statement. "Thanks to the decision made today, social media can continue providing high-quality services to Americans while simultaneously keeping them safe from irresponsible users and offensive content."

Supporters of the law say it ensures that users' political views go uncensored. State Rep. Briscoe Cain, R-Deer Park - who authored the bill, known as House Bill 20 - compared tech companies to "common carriers" like phone companies or cable providers, which are barred from customer discrimination.

But a federal judge who blocked a similar Florida law in June said such comparisons aren't accurate. Thomas Leatherbury, the director of the First Amendment Clinic at Southern Methodist University Dedman School of Law, told The Texas Tribune in September that the Texas law is "clearly unconstitutional," with the same flaws as the Florida law "and then some."

By targeting only the largest social media platforms, Leatherbury said the law violates the equal protection clause. The law largely prohibits electronic mail service providers from blocking messages based on their content, which Leatherbury said restricts email services' First Amendment rights.

The Legislature passed the law after outcry from Republicans over perceived anti-conservative bias among major tech companies. That charge grew when Twitter permanently banned former President Donald Trump for inciting violence and purged over 70,000 accounts linked to dangerous conspiracy groups after the deadly Jan. 6 insurrection attack of the U.S. Capitol.

Disclosure: Google and Southern Methodist University have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at https://www.texastribune.org/2021/12/01/texas-social-media-law-blocked/.

The Texas Tribune is a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at texastribune.org.

Companies are pocketing their fattest profits in more than 70 years, even as they complain about inflation

dreuter@insider.com (Dominick Reuter,Andy Kiersz) 

A sign showing gas prices at a station in San Diego, California, on November 9, 2021. Mike Blake/Reuters

Inflation is higher than it's been in 30 years, but corporate profits are soaring the most since 1950.

Companies aren't just raising prices enough to cover costs, they're padding their margins on top.

The ability to charge more is making some employers more comfortable with paying higher wages.

For the last several months, corporate executives have been loudly lamenting the rising cost of doing business due to supply-chain disruptions and labor shortages.

Indeed, inflation at levels not seen since the early 1990's has shown itself to be both larger and more persistent than almost anyone is comfortable with.

Roughly four out of five companies surveyed by the Richmond Federal Reserve reported hiking up prices for consumers to cover "at least some" of the input costs they were experiencing.

But those same execs have been a bit more discreet — apart from their quarterly earnings calls — about celebrating the record profit margins they've been able to achieve by not only passing costs on to customers, but by charging even more.

More than half of the companies surveyed by the small business services reviews website Digital.com reported raising prices beyond what was required to offset rising input costs.

"In other words, businesses are inflating already inflated prices in order to turn a bigger profit amid people's fears over uncertain times," the sites small business expert, Dennis Consorte, said in a statement.

Additionally, large firms were more likely to engage in this practice than small businesses, the survey found.

In fact, the latest data from the US Commerce Department shows that the last time corporate profit margins were so large was December 1950.

Even as ports battle bottlenecks, oil prices subside, and workers fill jobs — easing pressure on corporate margins — elevated prices have drawn accusations of gouging from President Joe Biden.

"Gas supply companies are paying less and making a lot more, and they do not seem to be passing that on to the consumers at the pump," Biden said last week. "Instead, companies are pocketing the difference as profit. That's unacceptable."

The upshot for workers of some of these price increases is that higher sales makes employers more willing to raise wages and compensation. And wages in some sectors have managed to stay ahead of inflation, marking a real increase in individuals' purchasing power.

"Businesses in the aggregate can safely say that when they spend more money on workers, that's going to be a situation where there is more revenue coming back to them," Robert C. King, an economic forecaster, told Bloomberg.

Still, gains in US corporate profits over the past year (37%) has vastly outstripped both inflation (6.2%) and compensation increases (12%), leading Morgan Stanley to recommend a return to a more equitable arrangement.

Even at their peak in the 1990's, corporate profit margins were roughly half of what they are today. Companies have been able to grow those margins to what they are today in part by paying workers a smaller share of what they produce.

The Morgan Stanley researchers write that the widening gap between company profits and worker compensation since the 1990's is unprecedented and poses a threat to the health of the economy.

Reducing that gap, they write, could be the key to unwinding the current inflationary cycle.

ECOCIDE
Kirby Inland Marine agrees to pay $15.3M for 2014 Texas oil spill

Dec. 2 (UPI) -- Houston-based Kirby Inland Marine has agreed to pay $15.3 million in damages and assessment costs to resolve federal and state claims in connection to a massive 2014 oil spill in the Houston Ship Channel, the Justice Department said Wednesday.

The United States and Texas concurrently filed a civli complaint with a proposed consent decree seeking money damages and costs under the Oil Pollution Act for injuries to natural resources after a Kirby oil barge spilled some 168,000 gallons of marine fuel oil into the channel's waters that then flowed into Galveston Bay and spread into the Gulf of Mexico and down the Texas coastline.

According to the complaint, the oil spill was caused by a Kirby tugboat that pushed two of the company's oil barges in front of a deep-draft bulk cargo ship in the Channel that struck the lead barge, rupturing its oil tank.

Some 160 miles of shoreline were oiled due to the spill, impacting sensitive marsh habitat, the national wildlife refuge of Matagorda Island, Mustang Island State Park and Padre Island National Seashore.

The spill either killed or harmed birds, dolphins and other marine life as well as federal and state marshes, beaches and sub-tidal habitats, federal prosecutors said, adding that it also caused the channel to close and recreational users to lose use of the marine and coastal environment.

The Justice Department said the millions of dollars will be used to plan, design and perform projects to restore or ameliorate the impacts to dolphins and other aquatic life, birds, beaches, marshes and recreational uses along the Texas coast.

The agreement follows a $4.9 million settlement the United States secured from Kirby on behalf of the Coast Guard in 2016 in a related Clean Water Act action.

"The Texas City Y oil spill impacted shoreline and marsh habitat on Matagorda Island, which is part of the Aransas National Wildlife Refuge," Amy Lueders, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services' southwest regional director said in a statement. "This settlement will provide for restoration of these injured resources as well as helping to recover shorebirds and other birds and their habitats impacted by the oil and cleanup activities."

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M

Ex-Puerto Rico mayor pleads guilty to bribery scheme with asphalt company


Federal investigators said former Catano Mayor Felix Delgado-Montalvo awarded about $10 million in government contracts to an asphalt and paving company. In return, he was given more than $100,000 in cash. File Photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo


Dec. 2 (UPI) -- The former mayor of a seaside town in northern Puerto Rico has pleaded guilty to a charge of criminal corruption over dozens of contracts he awarded over a four-year period that earned him lucrative kickbacks, authorities said Thursday.

The U.S. Justice Department said the former Catano mayor, Felix Delgado-Montalvo, pleaded guilty to a count of conspiracy to solicit and accept bribes.

Officials said he received cash payments and several luxury watches from a construction company after he awarded it 50 contracts between 2017 and 2020.

"Delgado-Montalvo unjustly enriched himself by accepting bribes, including cash payments from a particular person, whose business ... would then benefit by being rewarded municipal contracts, including a contract worth nearly $50,000," the department said in a statement.

Delgado-Montalvo resigned as Catano mayor on Tuesday.

Officials said Delgado-Montalvo agreed as part of a plea agreement to forfeit $105,000 in proceeds from the illegal kickback scheme.

The owner of the asphalt and paving company, Mario Villegas-Vargas, has been indicted for giving the bribes to Delgado-Montalvo. The value of the contracts that his company received totaled about $10 million, authorities said.

Villegas-Vargas has been charged with conspiracy, bribery and use of an interstate facility in aid of racketeering. He faces up to 20 years in prison.

Delgado-Montalvo will be sentenced on March 8 and faces up to five years in prison.

44-foot pyramid of washing machines breaks Guinness World Record

 

Dec. 2 (UPI) -- A British company raised awareness of electronics recycling and broke a Guinness World Record by assembling 1,496 recycled washing machines into a gigantic pyramid.

Guinness World Records said Currys PC World earned the record for largest washing machine pyramid when it arranged the appliances into a pyramid measuring 44 feet and 7 inches tall.

The pyramid's square base, composed of 256 washing machines, measures 31 feet, 7.5 inches on each side.

Currys said the record attempt was aimed at raising awareness of recycling services for electronics.

CAPITALI$M IN SPACE
NASA awards Blue Origin, Northrop Grumman and Nanoracks with contracts to build private space stations

Michael Sheetz 


NASA awarded a trio of companies with contracts to develop private space stations, as the agency prepares for the retirement of the International Space Station.

Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin, Northrop Grumman, and Nanoracks were awarded a total of nearly $416 million under NASA's Commercial LEO Destinations (CLD) project.

Nanoracks won the largest individual award with an $160 million, while Blue Origin and Northrop Grumman received $130 million and $125.6 million, respectively.

NASA awarded a trio of companies with contracts to develop private space stations, as the agency prepares for the retirement of the International Space Station.

Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin, Northrop Grumman, and Nanoracks were awarded a combined $415.6 million under NASA's Commercial LEO Destinations (CLD) project, the agency announced on Thursday.

Nanoracks won the largest individual award with an $160 million, while Blue Origin and Northrop Grumman received $130 million and $125.6 million, respectively.

Notably, private holding company Voyager Space is the majority shareholder of X.O. Markets, the parent company of Nanoracks.

NASA told CNBC earlier this year that the agency "received roughly about a dozen proposals" from a variety of companies for contracts under the project. With NASA planning to retire the International Space Station by the end of the decade, the CLD program represents an effort to turn to private companies for new space stations — with the space agency expecting to save more than $1 billion annually as a result.

Rather than build and own hardware itself, NASA has increasingly turned to public-private partnerships as a way to achieve its goals in space. The agency has had great success through this model in the past decade, with cargo and crew services provided via vehicles built by SpaceX and Northrop Grumman.

The agency does not expect to foot the entire bill for helping companies build new space stations, with NASA saying "the strategy has to work for both the government and the private sector" from an investment perspective.

Blue Origin previously unveiled its plan for a space station called "Orbital Reef" – in partnership with Sierra Space, Boeing, Redwire Space and Genesis Engineering. The companies plan to have the baseline configuration of Orbital Reef operational by 2027, which it will build into the next decade.

Nanoracks also announced plans to build a station called "Starlab" – partnering with Voyager and Lockheed Martin – and aims to be operational in orbit by 2027.

Northrop Grumman is building its own private space station, which the company says will initially support 4 astronauts and then expand to an 8 person crew.

Notably, Axiom Space – a company which already won a $140 million NASA contract to attach a habitable module to the ISS – did not bid for the CLD project. In a statement, Axiom said it "warmly congratulates the winners and looks forward to the shared vision of a thriving commercial network in LEO."

Kellogg reaches tentative deal with union after 2 months of strike

(Reuters) -Kellogg Co said on Thursday it has reached an agreement with the union on a new five-year contract for its employees at a few breakfast-cereal plants in the United States, potentially bringing a near two-month long strike to an end

.

 Union workers remain on strike in Battle Creek

The tentative agreement, reached after multiple rounds of talks with the union, includes wage increases and benefits for all employees and better terms for temporary employees.

The latest agreement allows for all temporary employees with four or more years of service to move to permanent positions with better pay and benefits.

Union members had previously opposed Kellogg's two-tier employment system that did not offer temporary workers, who make up 30% of its workforce, a pathway to become permanent staff.

Employees at Kellogg's cereal plants including Michigan, Nebraska, Pennsylvania and Tennessee went on strike on Oct. 5 after their contracts expired, as negotiations over payment and benefits stalled due to differences between the company and about 1,400 union members.

The new deal, which will be voted on by Kellogg employees on Dec. 5, will also offer permanent employees with better post-retirement benefits.

During lengthy negotiations with union members, Kellogg had hired permanent replacements for some of its plant workers on strike,

 and also warned of a dent to its annual profit due to the disruption.

1. Kellogg Net Profit Margin 2006-2021 | K | MacroTrends

   https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/K/kellogg/net-profit-margin

   66 rows · Kellogg Net Profit Margin Historical Data; Date TTM Revenue TTM Net Income Net Margin; 2021-09-30: $14.23B: $1.26B: 8.86%: 2021-06-30: $14.03B: $1.30B: 9.27%: 2021-03-31: $13.94B: $1.27B: 9.12%: 2020-12-31: $13.77B: $1.25B: 9.08%: 2020-09-30: $13.53B: $1.19B: 8.80%: 2020-06-30: $13.47B: $1.09B: 8.09%: 2020-03-31: $13.47B: $1.03B: 7.61%: 2019-12-31: $13.58B: $0.96B: 7.07%: 2019-09-30: …

   • DATE	TTM REVENUE	TTM NET INCOME	NET MARGIN
     2021-09-30	$14.23B	$1.26B	8.86%
     2021-06-30	$14.03B	$1.30B	9.27%
     2021-03-31	$13.94B	$1.27B	9.12%
     2020-12-31	$13.77B	$1.25B	9.08%

     See all 66 rows on www.macrotrends.net

Kellogg is one of the several major U.S. companies that has faced worker strikes in the recent past as the labor market tightens and inflation reaches record highs.

Last month, farm equipment maker Deere & Co reached an agreement with workers after a six week strike.

(Reporting by Maria Ponnezhath in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur and Shinjini Ganguli)

Striking Kellogg's workers in U.S. to get 3 per cent raises in new contract

Striking Kellogg's workers stand outside the company's cereal plant in Omaha, Neb., Thursday, Dec. 2, 2021. (AP Photo/ Josh Funk)

Josh Funk
The Associated Press
Published Dec. 2, 2021
OMAHA, NEB. -

Kellogg's has reached a tentative agreement with its 1,400 cereal plant workers that will deliver 3 per cent raises and end a nearly two-month-long strike if the deal is approved.

The five-year deal with the Bakery, Confectionary, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union also includes cost of living adjustments in the second through the fifth years of the contract and it maintains the workers' current health benefits, the company said Thursday.

Kellogg's workers who have been on strike since Oct. 5 will vote on the new contract Sunday. The company said it expects the results to be announced early next week.

The new deal covers workers at all four of Kellogg's U.S. cereal plants, which are located in Battle Creek, Michigan; Omaha, Nebraska; Lancaster, Pennsylvania; and Memphis, Tennessee. They make all of the company's well-known brands of cereal, including Frosted Flakes and Rice Krispies.

The tentative agreement also addresses the two-tiered system of wages that had been a sticking point for the union. The system gives newer workers less pay and fewer benefits and it includes up to 30% of the workforce at the plants. The Battle Creek-based company said the agreement will allow all workers with at least four years of experience to move up to the higher legacy pay level immediately and some additional workers would move up in the later years of the contract.

Union President Anthony Shelton thanked all the members of the bargaining committee in a statement but he said workers "will have the final say on the contract."

Outside the Kellogg's plant in Omaha, Eric Dwornicki said it is encouraging to see that a tentative agreement was reached, but the details of the deal will determine whether it will pass.

"We want to go back to work, but we don't want to be taken advantage of," said Dwornicki, 35, who has worked at the plant for nearly 10 years.

Dan Luers, who's father worked at the plant for 22 years, said at least the agreement is a sign of progress after nine weeks on strike. Luers, 32, has worked at the Omaha cereal plant for 10 years.

Jerry Ellerman celebrated the 17th anniversary of when he started at the plant and his 50th birthday on the picket line in Omaha, but he said the strike won't end unless it is a good deal.

"I'm willing to stay out here if it's not fair," Ellerman said.

The company took a hard line with workers during the strike.

Last month, Kellogg's went to court in Omaha to secure an order that set guidelines for how workers behave on the picket line because the company said striking workers were blocking entrances to its cereal plant and intimidating replacement workers. Union officials denied any improper behavior.

The company has been using salaried employees and outside workers to keep its plants running during the strike, and it threatened last week to begin hiring permanent replacements for some striking workers.

But the union held out for higher wages after employees had been working long hours -- more than 80 hours a week -- over the past 18 months to keep up with demand during the coronavirus pandemic. And workers believed that the ongoing widespread worker shortages across the country gave them an advantage in the negotiations.

In another recent strike, more than 10,000 Deere workers secured 10% raises and improved benefits before returning to work last month.

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Kellogg Co., union reach tentative agreement on 5-year contract

Nick Buckley,

The Battle Creek Enquirer
Thu, December 2, 2021

The Michigan American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO) hosts a rally outside Kellogg's World Headquarters on Wednesday, Oct. 27, 2021 to support workers on strike in Battle Creek, Michigan.

Kellogg Co. and the Bakery, Confectionary, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers union have reached a tentative agreement on a five-year master contract.

The agreement is pending a vote expected Sunday among the 1,400 union employees at the company's cereal plants in Battle Creek; Omaha, Nebraska; Lancaster, Pennsylvania; and Memphis, Tennessee. If the vote passes, it will end a strike that lasted over eight weeks as workers sought better wages and benefits.

The strike began Oct. 5 following the expiration on the one-year extension of the previous master contract. One major point of contention has been the company's two-tiered wage system, where workers are divided into "transitional" and "legacy" employees, the latter earning higher wages and receiving better retirement benefits.

First shift worker Brian Madsen pickets Kellogg Co. on Thursday, Dec. 2, 2021, at the Porter Street plant in Battle Creek, Michigan.

"Among other things, the tentative agreement includes an accelerated, defined path to legacy wages and benefits for transitional employees, and wage increases and enhanced benefits for all," Kellogg's spokesperson Kris Bahner said in a release.

The Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service assisted in negotiations.

The tentative agreement includes:

• All employees with four or more years of service graduate to legacy wages and benefits upon ratification. Each year of the contract, transitional workers graduate at the rate of 3% of the plant's headcount.

• Wage increases for all, including 3% upon ratification for legacy employees and increases for transitional employees.

• Increased pension multiplier for legacy employees.

• Enhanced benefits for all employees. Medical and prescription drug coverage will be reinstated retroactive Oct. 5, 2021. Employees who elected and paid COBRA premiums will be reimbursed for premiums paid.

• Increased severance for permanent plant closings by $10,000 for each level. The plant closure moratorium would be renewed for the term of the contract.

Kelly Stokes, Kathy Webb, LaKisha Scott and Brenda Flemons picket Kellogg Co. on Tuesday, Nov. 23, 2021, at the Porter Street plant in Battle Creek, Michigan.

In September, the company informed employees it would be cutting 212 jobs in Battle Creek by 2023 as part of streamlining efforts and relocation of cereal production across its ready-to-eat cereal (RTEC) network in North America.

Amid the strike, cereal production temporarily halted before Kellogg's began using salaried employees and "third-party resources." In November, the company announced it would hire some permanent replacement workers after negotiations broke down.

The high-profile labor dispute comes as union workers feel emboldened by a nationwide labor shortage amid the ongoing pandemic.

Standing on the picket line outside of the Porter Street plant in Battle Creek on Thursday, Rob Clark said he still has some questions regarding the tentative agreement before deciding if he will vote yes.

"We need clarification from our committee before we can make a real choice. There is definitely some questions," he said. "The uncertainty is tough for everyone. I think we've held together pretty well."

Kellogg's was founded in Battle Creek by Will Keith Kellogg in 1906 as Battle Creek Toasted Corn Flake Company. In addition to the Porter Street plant, the city is home to Kellogg's headquarters. The Porter Street plant is one of over 50 around the globe, and the company employed 31,000 workers worldwide as of 2020.

The last nationwide walkout among Kellogg's cereal makers was in 1972 and lasted 21 days.

Reporter Nick Buckley at nbuckley@battlecreekenquirer.com
Battle Creek Enquirer photojournalist Alyssa Keown contributed to this report.
This article originally appeared on Battle Creek Enquirer: Kellogg Co., union reach tentative agreement on 5-year contract

UGLY SELF HATING FASCIST

France: Far-right TV star Eric Zemmour shakes up presidential race

Radical writer and TV celebrity Eric Zemmour has declared he will run for president in next year's French election. He's already disrupted electoral calculations and spooked the country’s political right.


The emergence of Eric Zemmour, a familiar face on French television, has thrown the French presidential race wide open

Until a few months ago, France's next presidential election was largely expected to be a predictable duel between President Emmanuel Macron and the leader of the far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National), Marine Le Pen.

That was until Eric Zemmour, a far-right French commentator and TV celebrity, burst onto the political scene and sparked a media frenzy with inflammatory views on Islam, immigration and feminism, which he blames for the supposed decline of France.

The 63-year-old declared his candidacy in a YouTube video this week. A number of surveys showed his popularity rising — he briefly was the best-placed candidate to topple President Macron, though his momentum seems to have fizzled in recent weeks. But experts say he has certainly upended political calculations ahead of the election in April.

"Zemmour is creating a rupture in the French presidential race," Philippe Corcuff, a political scientist at the Institute of Political Studies in Lyon, told DW. "He appears more respectable and less on the right than Marine Le Pen whereas objectively he's actually much more right of her with his racist and xenophobic discourse."

Zemmour has received relentless media coverage, which is why some analysts say it's difficult to gauge his actual popularity

'Setting the agenda'

The paradox is explained by the fact that for years, Zemmour has been a well-known figure in France's media and in intellectual circles, making him look like a respectable figure from the traditional right.

A long-time journalist for France's conservative newspaper, Le Figaro, Zemmour is also a best-selling author and was until recently a prime-time commentator on a Fox-style news network. He's been attracting huge crowds at campaign-like events across France as he promotes his latest book.

But, he remains notorious for his polarizing views. He has called for a ban on "foreign" first names such as Mohammed, he has denounced LGBT "propaganda," he's railed against the immigration of Muslim Africans, and he has said Islam doesn't share France's core values.

Zemmour, who is of Jewish and Algerian descent, is also accused of trying to rehabilitate France's wartime Vichy regime, which collaborated with the Nazis. 

Macron condemns 1961 police crackdown on Algerians

"There's relentless coverage of Zemmour in the media. He is on television every day. And even if he isn't, he's being debated," Jean-Yves Camus, director of the Observatory of Radical Politics at the Jean-Jaures foundation in Paris told DW. "He sets the agenda and the others on the right are just left responding to issues that he has raised."
Stealing Marine Le Pen's thunder

Though surveys show that Zemmour's appeal cuts across the political right, he poses a particular challenge to Le Pen, who is plummeting in the polls.

In recent years, Le Pen has tried to rebrand and soften her party's image to broaden its appeal and has abandoned some of the far-right's more extreme positions popular under her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen. It has left her vulnerable to Zemmour, who is now outflanking her on the right with his hard-line views on Islam's place in France, immigration and national identity.

Marine Le Pen, who has toned down her party's radical image, is struggling in the polls

"The rank and file of the National Rally may be more radical on those issues. For them, Marine le Pen is too soft, too mainstream, not radical enough and, most importantly, she's standing for the third time," said Camus, an expert on the far-right.

"There's a certain fatigue. Some have been waiting for years for their party to come to power and they know from the opinion polls that Marine le Pen will not be elected."
A race to the right

Zemmour has also rattled France's traditional center-right party, Les Republicains (The Republicans), which was last in power, albeit under a different name, in 2012 under President Nicolas Sarkozy. The party is yet to elect a candidate for the presidential race in April.

According to Philippe Corcuff, The Republicans tacked to the right under the tough-talking, law-and-order president Sarkozy, marginalizing moderate conservatives within the party. Ever since, the boundaries with the far-right on classical right-wing themes have blurred.

"The traditional right has very little resistance to the discourse of Zemmour. Politicians are competing with each other to be more right-wing and they think immigration, security and sovereignty are the most bankable issues," Corcuff said. "With that, they give more legitimacy to what Zemmour says."

'No taboos'

The fact that Zemmour is seen as an outsider and is not a member of any political party also works to his advantage.

"French voters are completely fed up of politicians, they don't trust them," Antoine Diers, spokesman for the Association of the Friends of Eric Zemmour, a group raising funds for the potential presidential campaign, told DW.

"Zemmour is fearless. He has no taboos. He talks about how immigration is bad for France. He's the only one to say we have a problem with Islam. He asks good questions about security and a lack of justice."

Diers, who is a member of The Republicans himself, said he was hopeful that Zemmour could create a wide support base to defeat Macron.

"Zemmour resonates with people like me and other Republicans, also voters of the far-right and even people who have stopped voting," Diers said. "He is able to unite all these people more than any other politician on the right."

Zemmour's sudden rise has led to frequent debates about his similarity to Trump and other right-wing populists

Coarsening public discourse

Whether Zemmour's presidential bid is successful or not, his ideas have already become mainstream on the French campaign trail.

"The spread of far-right ideas doesn't necessarily lead to the victory of a far-right candidate, but it does attract politicians from all sides, the center and even the left," Philippe Corcuff said.

During a recent televised debate for the first Republican primary in France, journalists repeatedly asked candidates about the loaded term, the "great replacement" theory, first coined by French writer Renaud Camus and propagated by Eric Zemmour.

A conspiracy theory popular among Identitarian movements in Europe, it purports that an elitist group is colluding against white French and European people to eventually replace them with non-Europeans from Africa and the Middle East, the majority of whom are Muslim.

In recent weeks, Arnaud Montebourg, an independent candidate from the left, proposed banning money transfers by Western Union to countries that refuse to take back their own nationals deported from France to fight illegal immigration. Right after, Zemmour claimed the measure initially stemmed from him.

This article has been updated on November 30 to reflect Eric Zemmour declaring his candidacy in the April 2022 French presidential elections.

Idlib: Collapsing Turkish lira makes daily life harder than ever

The Turkish lira is in free fall — with devastating consequences for people in the Syrian region of Idlib. 46-year-old Khadija needs two jobs to provide for her family.



Many people in the Idlib region rely on food aid

Khadija lives in Idlib, the capital of the Syrian Idlib province. The burden of responsibility weighs heavily on her shoulders. She has become her family's main breadwinner, and provides for her twin brothers, who were born with Down syndrome.

"I work a lot," she told DW in a voice message. "My father used to be able to provide for us on his own. His salary today is only enough for the food we need."

46-year-old Khadija lives together with her father and his new wife, and her 40-year-old twin brothers. She has never married: "When my mother fell ill and then died 16 years ago, it was clear to everyone in the family that I would take on the responsibility for my brothers," she says.

"I've become more than just their sister, but I love taking care of them," she adds. She cooks their favorite meals, buys their clothes and spends as much time as possible with them.

However, Khadija also has two paid jobs to make ends meet. She works in a hair salon, where she gets a share of the turnover.

Her second job is teaching hairdressing to women at the Idlib Women's Center. "The work is fulfilling. But I have to work more to improve our financial situation. Everything has become expensive."

Khadija loves her work at the women's center in Idlib

Currency change

In late 2019, the local currency, the Syrian pound, was massively depreciated.

The reasons were manifold: The economy had no chance of recovery after years of war and sanctions against the Assad regime and various companies were making life more expensive.

This was exacerbated by the dramatic economic crisis in neighboring Lebanon, which has also had an impact on Syria.

Idlib province at the border with Turkey is one of the last regions that are controlled by rebels and Islamists in Syria

Eventually, in summer 2020, the Islamists introduced the Turkish lira as the new currency throughout Idlib province, replacing the Syrian pound.

The de facto local authorities had hoped that the currency change would protect the region from the imminent economic collapse.

Idlib province in north-western Syria, near the Turkish border, is the last region under the control of Syrian rebels and Islamists.

It is predominantly under the control of Islamist militias of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, which has emerged from the al-Nusra Front.
Sky-rocketing prices

The currency change took place just before the new US sanctions against the Syrian government came into force, putting even more pressure on the Syrian currency, which was already in free fall.

However, the Islamists did manage to stabilize prices in the Idlib province for eighteen months, Syria expert Zaki Mehchy of the British think tank Chatham House in London, told DW. "But now that the Turkish lira is deteriorating, it is affecting the living conditions of ordinary citizens in Idlib," he says.

Khadija confirms this whole-heartedly.

According to various estimates, around four million people live in Idlib province, over one million of them in refugee camps.

Many have already fled several times within Syria.

About 75 percent of Idlib province residents are in need of humanitarian assistance, according to Human Rights Watch.

The grim situation is exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the constant bombardment of the southern areas of the region by the Assad regime and its supporters.

"We have to endure a lot here, life is really not easy," says Khadija.

When the Turkish lira was introduced as a means of payment in 2020, the exchange rate was 6.8 lira for one US dollar. In the meantime, the dollar is at 12.9 lira (as of Dec 1).

"When the lira lost so much value, stores and merchants immediately raised prices," Khadija tells us. There are people who earn just 100 lira a week, she says. "How can you afford paying 157 lira for a gas bottle for cooking?" she asks.
Goods from Turkey or the black market

For example, Watad Petroleum — an oil company linked to those in power in Idlib — raised fuel prices as the value of the Turkish lira fell. While it is unclear who is behind Watad, they are known to source oil for north-western Syria mostly from Turkey.

In general, almost all goods traded in the province come from Turkey.

They enter Syria through the Bab al-Hawa border crossing.

"Even we in the hairdressing salon only use products from Turkey. But of course, goods from Syria are still in circulation," Khadija reports.


The Islamists of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham hold sway in the Idlib region

"In general, the resources in Idlib are not diverse enough to cover the needs of local communities," says Zaki Mehchy.

Wheat, for example, is grown in the region, but it cannot meet the region's bread needs.

"That's why they depend a lot on goods coming from Turkey or from regime-controlled areas or even from the Kurdish controlled area, and by importing these goods from or by buying these goods from these areas, they're paying extra money because these areas are suffering from an increase in the prices of basic goods," he told DW, adding that "we are talking about smuggling networks and we're talking about smugglers who control the local economy there."

Smugglers would then use this for themselves to make high profit margins.

"That's why the prices are also increasing in Idlib," Mehchy told DW.

The economic situation heavily affects people in the refugee camps on the border with Turkey

The next disaster is on the way

Khadija and her family in Idlib city are grateful that they have their own house, despite the fact that they can only just make ends meet.

"Other people are much worse off here. They live in tents and depend on financial aid," she says.

Till Küster is the head of the cooperation department at the organization Medico International. He says the next disaster is looming — driven also by the onset of winter and the COVID-19 pandemic.

"Most workers and employees get their daily wages paid in Turkish lira and live on that basis. If things continue like this, people will soon hardly be able to afford bread. Currently, the only way to help is through food donations or money," he said.

For Khadija, however, leaving Idlib is out of the question.

Escaping with her two brothers would be impossible anyway. "Where would I go with them?" she asks.

"Besides, I think it's important to give the women here an economic perspective by teaching them my trade," she says.

"I want them to be able to support themselves."