The Revolutionary War transformed by piles of snow, armies buried

Nathan Howes
Thu, December 23, 2021

The Revolutionary War transformed by piles of snow, armies buried

This Day In Weather History is a daily podcast by Chris Mei from The Weather Network, featuring stories about people, communities and events and how weather impacted them.

The Snow Campaign was one of the first major military operations of the American Revolutionary War in the southern colonies. In December of 1775, the Patriot army attempted to surprise the enemy by attacking Tory camps, despite the presence of chilly, snowy weather.

Beginning on Dec. 23, 1775, and continuing for a week, the Revolutionary War Snow Campaign in the Carolinas and Georgia was marked by a 24-inch snowfall (60.96 cm) at the American camp at Reedy River, N.C. The name of the campaign came about after the Patriots were impeded by a very heavy snowfall.

An army of up to 3,000 Patriot militia under Col. Richard Richardson marched against Loyalist recruiting centres in South Carolina, flushing them out and frustrating attempts by the opposition to organize.

They disbanded the Tories relatively easily, just prior to a 30-hour snowstorm. Richardson reported on Christmas Day 1775 his men struggled in snow 15 inches (38.1 cm) deep.

After marching through this for eight days, a thaw set in, along with sleet and rain, melting the snow and creating chilling floods in nearby creeks. Many in the expedition suffered frostbite before this so-called Snow Campaign ended.

On today's podcast, Chris Mei discusses the conditions that led to the Snow Campaign, the snow that occurred during and how it changed the outcome of some the key battles during this timeline of the American Revolutionary War.

Philippine typhoon survivors wish for roofs and food at Christmas



Philippine typhoon survivors wish for roofs and food at ChristmasFather Ricardo Virtudazo walks among downed banana trees felled by Super Typhoon Rai (AFP/Ferdinandh CABRERA)

Ron LOPEZ
Fri, December 24, 2021, 8:55 PM·3 min read

Father Ricardo Virtudazo stands in a pool of water in his typhoon-hit church in the southern Philippines delivering Christmas Day mass to dozens of devotees whose wishes this year were for new roofs, food and fine weather.

More than a week after Typhoon Rai cut a swathe through the archipelago, killing nearly 400 people and leaving hundreds of thousands homeless, survivors clung to family and faith after their homes -- and planned festivities -- were wiped out.

"What's important is all of us are safe," said Joy Parera, 31, attending Christmas mass with her husband at San Isidro Labrador Parish church in the town of Alegria, on the northern tip of Mindanao island.


A light rain soaked the pews and white tiled floor of the damaged church, which has been left with a gaping hole in the roof after Rai ravaged the area.

Devotees wore masks as they gathered inside the church festooned with Christmas decorations and prayed for a better year.

"We still have hope," Virtudazo told AFP.

"In spite of the calamities they experience, they still have faith in God."

Christmas is one of the most important events in the Christian calendar and in the Catholic-majority Philippines, families typically gather to share a meal.

But the widespread destruction caused by Rai in the southern and central regions of the country has dampened celebrations as many survivors plead for drinking water and food.

Mindanao, Siargao, Dinagat and Bohol islands are among the most devastated by the storm, which knocked out electricity, tore off roofs, shredded wooden buildings, felled concrete power poles and uprooted trees.

The scale of the damage, lack of mobile phone signal or internet in many areas, and depleted government coffers after the Covid-19 response were hampering efforts to distribute aid.

- 'We'll make do with spaghetti' -

Nardel Vicente said his Christmas wish was for someone to help him buy a new roof for his house in Alegria after it was wrecked by Rai, which hit the country on December 16 as a super typhoon.

Jobless and with little money to spare, Vicente said his family would not be able to prepare a festive meal this year.

"In previous years we had spaghetti, pork, chicken -- whatever we could afford between us," the 38-year-old said.

But he added: "That's ok -- we're alive. It's better than welcoming Christmas with a dead loved one."

Marites Sotis usually serves up meat, spring rolls and salad for her family.

"We won't have those this year because they cost a lot of money," Sotis, 53, told AFP in the coastal municipality of Placer where the storm felled most of her family's coconut trees.

"We'll make do with spaghetti."

Some survivors in nearby Surigao City have been standing on roads for days begging for money and food from passing motorists after failing to receive a scrap of government assistance.

Inaga Edulzura, 41, said she hoped to get a packet of spaghetti to cook for her family. Otherwise, they would "make do with sliced bread".

"Our only request is that there's fine weather on Christmas Day to give us some cheer," she told AFP.

"That and some food."

rbl/cgm-amj/jah

Red Cross Launches Philippines Typhoon Rai (Odette) Appeal


Canadian Red Cross / Croix-Rouge canadienne
Tue., December 21, 2021

OTTAWA, Dec. 21, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Canadian Red Cross has launched the Philippines Typhoon Rai (Odette) Appeal to help people impacted by the devastating storm that made landfall in the region on December 16, 2021. Locally known as Odette, Typhoon Rai has caused severe flooding and landslides and displaced hundreds of thousands of people.

Donations to the Canadian Red Cross will be used for immediate and ongoing relief efforts, long-term recovery, resiliency, and preparedness for future events in the Philippines and in and around impacted regions, including surrounding countries. These activities and the impacted areas may evolve based on emerging needs and subsequent disasters.

Canadians wishing to make a donation to the Philippines Typhoon Rai (Odette) Appeal can do so online at www.redcross.ca or by calling 1-800-418-1111.

Additional Resources

@RedCrossCanada | facebook.com/CanadianRedCross | redcross.ca/blog

Red Cross donor inquiries: WeCare@redcross.ca or 1-800-418-1111

About the Canadian Red Cross

Here in Canada and overseas, the Red Cross stands ready to help people before, during and after a disaster. As a member of the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement – which is made up of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, the International Committee of the Red Cross and 192 national Red Cross and Red Crescent societies – the Canadian Red Cross is dedicated to helping people and communities in Canada and around the world in times of need and supporting them in strengthening their resilience.

Gambia commission recommends ex-president Jammeh be tried

A commission in Gambia has suggested that former President Yahya Jammeh be brought before an international tribunal for crimes committed during his 22-year dictatorship.



The commission said that Jammeh and his henchmen were responsible for 44 specific crimes against journalists, ex-soldiers, political rivals and civilians

A truth and reconciliation commission in Gambia has found former President Yahya Jammeh responsible for a spate of killings, rapes and torture during his 22-year long dictatorship and recommended that he be tried before an international tribunal.

The commission's report, which came after a three-year probe into the abuses under Jammeh's rule based on nearly 400 witness testimonies, was presented to President Adama Barrow earlier this month but was released publicly on Friday.

"Over a period of 22 years, starting from July 22, 1994, Yahya Jammeh and... co-perpetrators committed very serious crimes against the people of The Gambia," a statement from the commission said.

The commission recommended "prosecuting Yahya Jammeh and his co-perpetrators in an international tribunal" in West Africa outside of Gambia, under either the African Union or the ECOWAS regional group, the statement added.
When was the commission established?

The Truth, Reconciliation and Reparations Commission (TRRC) was established in January 2017 by Barrow, whose election in 2016 ended over two decades of dictatorship in the West African nation.

Jammeh — who clinched power in a 1994 coup — had left for exile in Equatorial Guinea after refusing to accept defeat in the elections.

The commission said that Jammeh and his henchmen, including a personal hit squad called The Junglas, were responsible for 44 specific crimes against journalists, ex-soldiers, political rivals and civilians.

He was also responsible for the rape or sexual abuse of three women, the commission said.

The crimes also included the killing of journalist Deyda Hydara in 2004, seven civilians in 2000 and 59 West African migrants in 2005.

 

Christmas Day will kick off a prolonged Alberta cold snap

Quebec daycares should only open for essential-service workers: union

Quebec schools remain hotbeds for COVID-19 transmission, support staff say.

La Presse Canadienne
Publishing date: Dec 22, 2021 •

Daycare children walk down a street in Plateau Mont-Royal. 

PHOTO BY JOHN MAHONEY /Montreal Gazette

The union representing support staff in five Montreal-area school service centres is criticizing Quebec for keeping daycares and specialized schools open until the holiday break, then reopening them Jan. 10.

In a statement, the FTQ- affiliated Syndicat des employées et employés professionnels-les et de bureau said it is in “strong disagreement” with the government’s decision. The union says Quebec should immediately shut down all schools and maintain daycare services only for the children of essential-service workers, such as police or firefighters, as was done during the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The risk of transmitting the virus is “enormous,” said Jean-François Labonté, president of the union representing support staff at the Centre de services scolaire Marie-Victorin.

“We are very worried,” he said. “Half the cases in Quebec are occurring in our schools. And the personnel feel poorly protected because of the issue of poor ventilation. There are still no (carbon dioxide) detectors in all classrooms, in all the sites.”

While announcing new health restrictions on Monday, the provincial government indicated that classes in elementary, secondary and adult education institutions would be suspended the next day.

Health Minister Christian Dubé added that elementary schools would remain open until the holidays as vaccination and rapid test distribution sites. School daycares would remain open until the holidays, giving priority to health-care workers.

Labonté said the masks given to school employees were insufficient. He added that support staff should be prioritized to receive a booster dose of vaccine and should also receive a “risk bonus.”

Premier François Legault is expected to announce new health restrictions Wednesday evening triggered by the recent surge in COVID-19 cases.

UNCONCERNED CONTRARIAN PARTY

'Impossible situation': Experts worry about changes to COVID-19 testing in Alberta

CTV News Edmonton
Updated Dec. 24, 2021 

Changes to Alberta's COVID-19 testing protocols raised concerns about the lack of an accurate case count as rapid antigen tests take on a more significant role, experts warn.

The province's top doctor announced changes to COVID-19 testing Thursday as active cases increase.

Alberta Health now recommends that you no longer book appointments to get a PCR test if you have a rapid testing kit.

If you are symptomatic and test positive on a rapid test, notify any close contacts from the last 48 hours and isolate for 10 days or until symptoms resolve — whichever is longer.

If you're symptomatic and test negative on a rapid test, wait 24 to 48 hours and take a second rapid test. Should that test come back negative, remain in isolation until symptoms are gone.

The exceptions to the new testing recommendations are if you do not have access to rapid tests, work in high-priority settings like health care, or have a high-risk condition.

"As Omicron is spreading farther and faster than anything we've ever seen before, and no one in Canada will be able to maintain PCR testing for every community case with mild symptoms," said Dr. Deena Hinshaw on Thursday.

ACTIVE CASES WON'T HAVE THE SAME MEANING

The testing changes mean case count data will no longer be an accurate snapshot of COVID-19 spread in Alberta, Dr. Lynora Saxinger, infectious diseases specialist, told CTV News Edmonton.

"The explosive spread means that the numbers are going to become somewhat unreliable or at least not able to be compared to prior numbers in the way that we are used to," Saxinger said.

"The fact that rapid tests aren't currently notifiable and tracked means that there will be a lot happening that we aren't directly aware of.”

"People can still access PCR testing, especially if they don't have access to rapid tests," Hinshaw said. "So we're not blocking access to testing at this point; we're simply not recommending it because we need to use every tool at our disposal."

The lack of case count is just another unknown added to an already lengthy list, Saxinger said, including how Omicron will impact the province.

"It would be preferable to have a reliable case count, especially because we don't really know what is going to happen with the relationship between cases and hospitalizations and other severe outcomes," she said.

When it comes to the holiday season, Saxinger said the increase in social gatherings at a time when testing is changing could pose risks, especially to older people.

Preliminary data from health experts in the U.K. suggests that people with the Omicron variant of the coronavirus are 50 per cent to 70 per cent less likely to be hospitalized than those with the Delta strain.

The British public health agency announced the preliminary findings, calling them "a small ray of sunlight."

Saxinger says while the early data is encouraging, that study relied primarily on data gathered on younger people.

"We still don't know how likely Omicron is to be severe in older people because of most of the spread in the U.K. and the U.K. data that looks reassuring is mostly of a younger population," she said.

"All those multigenerational (holiday season) gatherings could really actually shift the age group of newly infected Omicron cases, and we genuinely don't know what to expect from that from the point of view of severity," the University of Alberta associate professor added.

BETTER PLANNING

The Official Opposition says the change in testing will leave Albertans in the dark when Omicron is spreading and poised to place more pressure on the health care system.

"The fact now that we are putting people in a position where they are expected to do their testing at home, when they may not have a record if they have to apply for compensation on long COVID or other things that may impact them personally," said David Shepherd, NDP health critic.

Shepherd added that ontop of concerns about compensation or WCB claims, for many Albertans, rapid test kits remain out of reach.

"This is deeply concerning, and it shows a real failure on the part of our government," Shepherd said.

British Columbia announced a similar shift in posture towards testing on Friday as it declared its laboratories were being overwhelmed and could not keep up with demand.

"The spread of this variant is so aggressive that I actually really can't imagine having tooled in advance to have capacity for all the testing that is going to be needed," Saxinger said.

"This seems like a practical response to an impossible situation on the testing side."

For Saxinger, the problem remains that while there are new restrictions in place, many large gatherings can still proceed.

"I really do think we are going to be seeing really intense transmission over the next couple of weeks."

OTHER INDICATORS

In a statement to CTV News, Chris Bourdeau, Alberta Health spokesperson, said that the province is not alone in implementing new strategies for COVID-19 testing.

"This is something every jurisdiction across the world is facing and managing," Bourdeau said.

The province will rely on other indicators, like wastewater data and hospitalizations, to assess the continued impact COVID-19 has on the province, Bourdeau added.

"We expect the change in testing to be in place indefinitely," he said. "We will adjust at a point when the situation allows us.

"As Dr. Hinshaw said yesterday, with cases growing exponentially, we must begin to conserve testing capacity, receiving PCR testing for higher risk groups."

Alberta Health says the province received 14.7 million tests from the federal government, with 10.3 shipped out so far, including 6.5 million to businesses and 3.8 million to AHS clinics and pharmacies to distribute to Albertans.

The remaining 4.4 million tests are committed to public distribution, Bourdeau said.

The province expects to receive another 4.3 million tests by the end of the month, with no "firm" delivery dates set.

'Brought the system to its knees': Experts warn about what a fifth wave could mean for health care in Alberta

Experts are warning about the effect of the fifth wave on the health care system (File)


Kerry McAthey
CTV News Edmonton
Updated Dec. 24, 2021 

With Omicron now the dominant strain of COVID-19 in the province, health-care workers are bracing for what another wave will mean for the system.

According to doctors and other officials, the decisions Albertans make over the next few days could dictate what hospitals look like in the new year.

“If we get together with multiple households, this will increase the transmission of Omicron significantly,” Dr. Darren Markland said.

During the fourth wave, Alberta ICUs were swamped with COVID-19 patients. Thousands of surgeries and other procedures were cancelled province-wide, and the Canadian military was called in to help.

“I think we have to plan as if we’re going to have a wave [just] as bad as the fourth one,” said Heather Smith, president of the United Nurses Association.

“It literally brought the system to its knees.”

Smith said protecting that system is about keeping people out of the hospital.

ROOM FOR OPTIMISM

New studies about Omicron are demonstrating the ways it differs from the Delta variant of COVID-19.

“Some of the early data that we’ve seen [shows] it doesn’t seem to cause as severe cases in terms of hospitalization, especially if you’re vaccinated,” said critical care specialist Dr. Raiyan Chowdry.

“There is room for some optimism.”

Preliminary research from the U.K. shows those infected with Omicron are 50 per cent less likely to wind up in hospital than with Delta.

However, the strain is proving to be much more contagious.

“The sheer number of people means that [while] they may not get as sick, there’s still going to be huge numbers who will,” Smith said.

ICU specialists like Dr. Markland add that because the province’s health care system is already under lingering strain from the fourth wave, Omicron could be devastating.

“After wave after wave, the ship gets more battered,” he said. “We’re not going to sink, but we’re certainly taking on water.”

With files from Touria Izri

Alberta Premier facing criticism for Wuhan bat soup comments in year-end interview

WUHAN BATS DID NOT OPEN ALBERTA FOR SUMMER

TYLER SHANDRO MINISTER OF HEALTH

      

KENNEY UCP FUNDRAISING HAT

By JOSH RITCHIE

Posted Dec 24, 2021

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney is under fire for comments he made during a year-end interview that was published online earlier this week.

The article saw Kenney do a one-on-one with Rick Bell of Postmedia where he talked about the current state of the pandemic, his government’s response to COVID and what’s to come in the months ahead.

But, when asked about what the province can expect moving forward, Kenney had some controversial remarks on the topic.

“Who knows what the next variant that gets thrown up is? I don’t know. And what’s the next bat soup thing out of Wuhan? I don’t know.

“I’ve learned from bitter experience not to make predictions about this.”

His response immediately caught the attention of people on social media, including Alberta’s Opposition Leader, Rachel Notley.

“We have workers, we have Albertans young and old, students, public servants who actually continue to live in fear,” explained Teresa Woo-Paw with the Act2EndRacism National Network. “They are actually concerned about their personal safety.”

Following the backlash, the premier’s office went on defence, saying in a statement to CityNews:

“The Premier’s comment obviously referred to the widely reported theory that the first human infection of COVID-19 resulted from transmission between an infected bat and a human in the Wuhan region of China. The World Health Organization has concluded that direct spread from bats to humans in Wuhan is a ‘likely’ scenario to explain the beginning of human transmission.

“It is obviously ridiculous to suggest that these widely reported scientific theories are ‘racist.’”

But, to many, the ridiculous part of this all is to suggest that Kenney’s remarks are not racist.

“His word is actually causing an adverse impact on a group of people. That is racial discrimination,” said Woo-Paw.

– With files from CityNews reporter Sarah Chew

Calls for Alberta premier to apologize for comments made in year-end interview | Watch News Videos Online (globalnews.ca)

 

What did Jason Kenney say? Alberta premier’s racist comment sparks backlash online


Alberta premier Jason Kenney recently came under fire after making alleged racist comments against the Chinese community during a year-end interview with Postmedia‘s Rick Bell.

During the interview, the Canadian politician addressed concerns related to the new variants of COVID-19 and talked about China’s Wuhan province, where the virus was first detected:“Who knows what the next variant that gets thrown up is? I don’t know. And what’s the next bat soup thing out of Wuhan? I don’t know. I’ve learned from bitter experience not to make predictions about this.”\

Still no apology from Jason Kenney for his racist comments in a newspaper column that ran yesterday.

These comments spread hate and fear at a time when, perhaps more than ever before, Albertans need to come together.

Premier, apologize and denounce racism in all forms. #ableg

The remarks were immediately condemned on social media, with other political leaders like Rachel Notley and Mary Ng demanding an apology from the premier.

Several social media users took to Twitter to call out the premiere for his controversial statements:

I still remember being accused of having SARS when I came back from the Philippines back in 2002-2004. I was a kid, getting yelled at for eating bats and snakes. It was racist then. It’s still racist Jason Kenney.

You have failed the people of Alberta. You’ve consistently made wrong decisions in this health crisis, and racist comments like these are a reminder of why you are unfit to lead Alberta @jkenney. https://t.co/TZJ8krjSFx

Jason Kenney is racist & unfit to lead Alberta @jkenney

This is an unbelievably racist statement. Throughout this pandemic, Jason Kenney and the UCP have used dog whistle language. Now they are being openly racist. #ableg #yeg #abracism https://t.co/5DqqaO4hiB

This is the second time during the pandemic that @jkenney has deliberately targeted the Asian community with racist comments. Time to step down or be removed. You are an embarrassment to normal Albertans. twitter.com/KevinCTV/statu…

Jason Kenney making racist comments is a feature, not a bug.

All I want for Christmas is for the premier of my province to maybe refrain from trading in dog whistle, anti-Asian sentiment. https://t.co/oWXFPhlKfa

Jason Kenney made a racist remark; I am not surprised. Albertans who voted for him and his party knew this about him and many will probably vote for him again. #ableg

 

Mary Ng, the Liberal Member of Parliament for Markham-Thornhill, took exception with Kenney's "irresponsible" use of "anti-Asian racist tropes."

Even Calgary’s own Andrew Phung from the popular TV show Kim’s Convenience chimed in.

Actor and comedian Andrew Phung called Kenney's racist comments the latest in the long list of the premier's failures.

China's 'social credit' system ranks citizens and punishes them with throttled internet speeds and flight bans if the Communist Party deems them untrustworthy

Alexandra Ma,Katie Canales
Fri, December 24, 2021

China's property sector is central to its economy.Getty Images


China has been rolling out a system that ranks its citizens based on their "social credit."


People can be punished if they drive badly, buy too many video games, or steal.


It's not a unified, nationwide system, but China plans on eventually making it mandatory for everyone.


The Chinese Communist Party has been constructing a moral ranking system for years that will monitor the behavior of its enormous population — and rank them all based on their "social credit."

The "social credit system," first announced in 2014, is "an important component part of the Socialist market economy system and the social governance system" and aims to reinforce the idea that "keeping trust is glorious and breaking trust is disgraceful," according to a 2015 government document.

The rankings are decided by China's economics planning team, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the People's Bank of China, and the Chinese court system, according to the South China Morning Post.

The system can be used for individual people, but also for companies and government organizations. The private sector, including the burgeoning tech world in China, has their own non-governmental scoring systems that they implement, as Wired reported.

For example, Sesame Credit, which is owned by Jack Ma's Ant Group, uses its own unofficial scoring system for its employees, such as studying shopping habits, according to the think tank Merics.

The program has been piloted for millions across the country in recent years, as CNBC reported, and was expected to become fully operational and integrated by 2020.

But at the moment the system is piecemeal and voluntary, though the plan is for it to eventually be mandatory and unified across the nation, with each person given their own unique code used to measure their social credit score in real-time, per Wired.
Bad driving and debt could get you downgraded in the social ranking system

china beijing street crosswalk people
Beijing, China.Donat Sorokin\TASS via Getty Images


Like private credit scores, a person's social score can move up and down depending on their behavior.

The exact methodology is a secret — but examples of infractions include bad driving, smoking in non-smoking zones, buying too many video games, and posting fake news online, specifically about terrorist attacks or airport security.

Other potential punishable offenses include spending too long playing video games, wasting money on frivolous purchases, and posting on social media.
Punishments include travel bans and slow internet

China has already started punishing people by restricting their travel, including banning them from flights.

Authorities banned people from purchasing flights 17.5 million times by the end of 2018, according to the National Public Credit Information Centre, as the Guardian reported.

They can also clamp down on luxury options — many are barred from getting business-class train tickets, and some are kept out of the best hotels.

A train station in China.Yang Bo/China News Service via Getty Images

The eventual system will punish bad passengers specifically. Potential misdeeds include trying to ride with no ticket, loitering in front of boarding gates, or smoking in non-smoking areas.

According to Rachel Botsman, an author who published part of her book on tech security on Wired in 2017, the government will throttle your internet speeds as a punishment, though the exact mechanics still haven't been made clear.

According to Foreign Policy, credit systems monitor whether people pay bills on time, much like financial credit trackers — but also ascribe a moral dimension.

You or your kids could also miss out on the best jobs and schools — seventeen people who refused to carry out military service in 2017 were barred from enrolling in higher education, applying for high school, or continuing their studies, Beijing News reported.

And in July of 2018, a Chinese university denied an incoming student his spot because the student's father had a bad social credit score for failing to repay a loan.

You could also get your dog taken away. The eastern Chinese city of Jinan started enforcing a social credit system for dog owners in 2017, whereby pet owners get points deducted if the dog is walked without a leash or causes public disturbances.

A man with his dogs in Jinan in 2016.Visual China Group via Getty Images/Visual China Group via Getty Images

Those who lost all their points had their dogs confiscated and had to take a test on regulations required for pet ownership.

Naming and public shaming are other tactics. A 2016 government notice encourages companies to consult the blacklist before hiring people or giving them contracts.

People will be notified by the courts before they are added to the list, and are allowed to appeal against the decision within 10 days of receiving the notification.

Li Xiaolin, a lawyer who was deemed "untrustworthy" after not fulfilling a court order in 2015, was placed on the list and was unable to purchase plane tickets home while on a work trip, Human Rights Watch reported. He also couldn't apply for credit cards.

This video, posted by freelance journalist James O'Malley, includes an example of an announcement on a bullet train from Beijing to Shanghai warning people not to misbehave — or else their "behavior will be recorded in individual credit information system."




'Bad' citizens are punished, but the system also rewards 'good' citizens

People with good scores can speed up travel applications to places like Europe, Botsman said.

An unidentified woman in Beijing told the BBC in 2015 that she was able to book a hotel without having to pay a cash deposit because she had a good score.

The outlet also reported that Baihe, China's biggest dating site now owned by Jiayuan, is boosting the profiles of good citizens.

Citizens with good social credit can also get discounts on energy bills, rent things without deposits, and get better interest rates at banks.

These perks were available to people in Rongcheng, in Eastern China, where the city council rolled out a social credit system for its citizens featured in Foreign Policy in 2018.
The system has been likened to dystopian science fiction

China's social credit system incorporates a moral edge into the program, which is why many have compared it to some level of dystopian governance, such as in George Orwell's "1984" in which the state heavily controls every aspect of a citizen's life.

But despite that — Human Rights Watch called the system "chilling," while Botsman called it "a futuristic vision of Big Brother out of control" — some citizens say it's making them better people already.

A 32-year-old entrepreneur, who only gave his name as Chen, told Foreign Policy in 2018 that "I feel like in the past six months, people's behavior has gotten better and better. For example, when we drive, now we always stop in front of crosswalks. If you don't stop, you will lose your points. At first, we just worried about losing points, but now we got used to it."

Covid is here for good, scientists say. The rest remains unpredictable.




Evan Bush
Thu, December 23, 2021

SEATTLE — Early in the pandemic, many people seized on the hope that Covid-19 could be stopped in its tracks and buried for good once vaccines rolled out.

But hope for a zero-Covid country fizzled for most scientists long ago.

“Everyone has stopped talking about getting rid of Covid,” Dr. Elizabeth Halloran, an epidemiologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, said of her fellow researchers. “It’s not going away, and that means it’s going to be endemic.”


Most scientists now expect the virus to circulate indefinitely with lower and more predictable case numbers — a status known as endemicity. That would make the coronavirus like many other viruses that humanity has learned to deal with, such as influenza. It remains unclear, however, whether the coronavirus will remain a greater health risk than other endemic respiratory viruses.

There are some indications that government and public health officials are already operating with that idea in mind. The latest wave of the omicron variant has served not only as a reminder that the coronavirus is still mutating in unexpected ways, but also as a signpost: Federal messaging and local government action, which once focused on stopping the virus’s spread and relied upon extreme measures like local lockdowns, is now centered on reducing risk and allowing the vaccinated and the boosted to go on with relatively normal lives with precautions.

With Covid expected to become a fixture — and considering how fast the omicron variant spreads — some infectious disease experts now think most everyone could be infected during their lifetimes.

“It seems to me it’s almost inevitable you’re going to become infected,” said Dr. Francis Riedo, an infectious disease physician at EvergreenHealth, a hospital system in Kirkland, Washington. “The real question is how severe that infection is going to be.”

Even if endemic Covid becomes inevitable, however, it doesn’t mean people should stop taking preventive measures, experts say. Instead, they are beginning to consider a future in which Covid precautions, such as masking and occasional encouragement to socially distance, could become somewhat common. Vaccinations would remain central, as would precautions for vulnerable people.

And in the near term, as the omicron variant rages, it remains critical that people — including the vaccinated — try to avoid becoming infected now, when the pandemic is spiking. The health care system could soon be under siege, hospital workers are exhausted, and there aren’t enough treatment tools, like monoclonal antibodies and antiviral pills.

“There’s definitely a responsibility to the community,” Riedo said. “If you look at the country, there are huge swaths unvaccinated and not infected yet but will be. And what can we do to help them?”

A virus becomes endemic as people grow overall immunity to a disease through vaccination or infection. Waning immunity keeps the virus from dying out completely.

For an endemic disease, every person who is infected transmits the virus to one additional person on average. But it’s a “dynamic equilibrium,” Halloran said, and the prevalence of the virus can wax and wane depending on factors like the season.

No model can predict how soon society could make the transition to endemicity, said Sergei Maslov, a professor of bioengineering at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, whose research suggests that ever-changing social interactions prevent pathogens from dying out and pushes them toward becoming endemic.

“Mutations are pretty unpredictable at this point, and we don’t know what will happen after omicron,” he said.

It typically takes a few years for a new viral pathogen to move from pandemic to endemic, said Maslov’s research partner, Alexei Tkachenko, a scientist at Brookhaven National Laboratory in Long Island, New York.

“Eventually, yes, there will be some sort of repeated pattern, an average level of prevalence of the epidemic,” Tkachenko said. “We cannot say it will be so low we don’t care.”

Pfizer executives said this week that they believe Covid will become endemic by 2024. The director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci, wrote last week with colleagues that the virus is unlikely to be eradicated and that they expect “periodic outbreaks and endemics.” A survey in February in the journal Nature found that nearly 9 of 10 researchers working on the coronavirus thought Covid would become endemic.

Endemic diseases often settle into more predictable and stable patterns. Influenza, for example, spikes somewhat predictably during colder months. But researchers can’t say for sure how damaging an endemic level of Covid could become.

“The really open question for me — or maybe for public health or all of us — is when it becomes endemic and people become infected, how much severe disease and death does it cause?” Halloran said.

An endemic version of Covid could look somewhat similar to the flu, according to a projection by Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.

Bedford said he thinks endemic Covid could mean that most people would be infected about every three years, on average, with most cases quite mild.

Bedford’s back-of-the-napkin math — when the delta variant was the primary strain — suggested that 50,000 to 100,000 people could die in the U.S. every year from endemic Covid, according to a presentation he shared this fall. In the decade that preceded Covid, influenza caused 12,000 to 52,000 deaths a year, according to statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Long Covid, a poorly understood disease that follows infection, could increase the social costs of the endemic Covid.

Riedo, an infectious disease physician, said the comparison to flu makes sense. Vaccination will be key to protecting vulnerable groups.

“With Covid, even if you’re vaccinated, some people are going to die, and the average age of those individuals is in their 80s,” Riedo said. “They have multiple comorbidities. They can’t tolerate a small perturbation in their physiology.”

Those who are unvaccinated and die of Covid tend to be younger by 10 to 15 years on average, with fewer health problems, Riedo said, adding that the same holds true for influenza.

Endemic Covid won’t affect everyone equally. Immunosuppressed people might not benefit as much from vaccinations and could need additional protection to reduce the risk of endemic Covid.

Riedo outlined a potential treatment plan for immunosuppressed people, who make up 4 percent to 5 percent of the U.S. population: “Every six months, you go in to get antibodies, and you have rapid tests available to them, and if you’re positive, you start them on new medications,” such as drugs that help inhibit viruses from reproducing.

If risks are more significant during spikes of endemic Covid, layers of protection, like masks and distancing, could still prevent infection and help manage risk, particularly for at-risk populations.

“Covid is not the first time they’ve had to think about double layers of protection or had to think about how to protect themselves during epidemics or environments that put them at risk,” said Erin Sorrell, an assistant professor of microbiology and immunology at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. “Getting the common cold, the flu, measles, getting anything would be an issue for their health and safety.”

Not every virus becomes endemic or remains that way.

Strict control measures of the first SARS virus, which didn’t spread asymptomatically, allowed health officials to effectively eradicate it. The virus that causes smallpox was eradicated through worldwide vaccination efforts.

Some experts still believe eliminating the coronavirus country by country could be possible, although it would take huge investments and the costs might not outweigh the benefits.

Four other coronaviruses circulate in humans and cause common colds. Scientists suspect that they might have developed out of pandemics before they weakened in severity as people gained immunity.

But this is the first time researchers are measuring a coronavirus on a path toward becoming endemic. More surprises could be in store.

“Who would have thought of omicron?” Halloran said. “Is that in your crystal ball?”