Eric Miller: Make no mistake, U.S. debt default would be economic earthquake for us all

Story by Special to Financial Post • 

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) attends a news conference in Washington, criticizing Republicans for what he called brinksmanship and irresponsibility over the debt ceiling. Politics is driving the U.S. to the cliff’s edge., writes Eric Miller.© Provided by Financial Post

We live in an age when the unthinkable becomes thinkable. In the field of public finance, another “unprecedented event” is on the horizon.

If Congress does not raise America’s statutory borrowing limit – known as the debt ceiling – the United States will default on its obligations, including to bondholders. The U.S. is the world’s largest economy, and the dollar is the global reserve currency, meaning that the consequences of a default would be seismic.

At present, the U.S. debt ceiling stands at US$31.4 trillion. On Jan. 19, 2023, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen s ent a note to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy informing him that United States had reached its borrowing limit. Her department is currently using “extraordinary measures” to temporarily cover expenses, but this spare cash will be exhausted by June 5, 2023, after which the U.S. Government would default.

Despite battles in 2011 and 2013, Congress has typically raised the debt limit without incident. After all, borrowing pays for expenses already accrued.

Yet, this time, the new Republican majority in the House of Representatives is refusing to raise the debt ceiling without major cuts in government spending.

The last time the U.S. had a balanced budget was 2000. Since that time, four Presidents – two from each party – have added US$25 trillion in new debt. Under the simplest measure – on whose watch the spending occurred – responsibility is split evenly between the parties.

There is no doubt that the long-term debt picture for the U.S. is not good, but it has not reached a crisis point. If Congress raised the debt ceiling tomorrow, Treasury would have no difficulty in selling its bonds.

Rather, it is politics driving the U.S. to the cliff’s edge.

Republicans took control of the House in January with very slim margins. This empowered the Party’s hardened populist wing.

Their first exertion of power was over the selection of the House Speaker – the top position in the Chamber. Normally, this is a simple process. This time, the populists put Kevin McCarthy – the Republican leader – through 15 rounds of voting before giving him the nod.

With each round, Mr. McCarthy offered yet more concessions, including the dilution of his own power to drive consensus on difficult issues. One of the key concessions was a commitment not to raise the debt ceiling without major spending cuts, even if this means defaulting.

To date, Republicans have not agreed on nor tabled a specific list of cuts sought. They also will not raise taxes. Math and politics make balancing the budget really hard.

Nevertheless, many analysts think the whole point of the debt ceiling fight is to excite the Republican base about “government overreach,” as exemplified in laws such as the Inflation Reduction Act.

Regardless of political posturing, the fact remains that the debt ceiling must be raised.

Yet, this imperative is being met with a troubling tendency to downplay the risks that default would pose to the U.S. and global economies.

At present, the U.S. benefits from the market belief that there is a 100 per cent chance that it will pay its debts on time and in full. If that belief is invalidated, interest rates will spike dramatically.

In 2021, Moody’s Analytics modelled a U.S. debt ceiling default. They found it would cost 3 million jobs and wipe out $15 trillion in household wealth. In other words, it would create a repeat of the Great Recession.

Many advocates of brinkmanship are also postulating a difference between a debt default and a “default on obligations.” The idea is to “prioritize” payments to bondholders over other obligees, including pensioners, soldiers, and contractors, thus formally avoiding default. For its part, Treasury says this “prioritization” is unfeasible.

In the end, solving this looming crisis will take leadership. Given his political weakness and specific commitment to “go to the edge” on the debt ceiling, there are real questions about whether Speaker McCarthy could even deliver his caucus on a deal to avoid default.

In the coming months, Canada and others around the world will watch the economic consequences of political polarization play out in real time. If the U.S. does default, we are likely to see an economic earthquake, including the end of the dollar’s hegemony and the system it underpins. While we should all hope this does not happen, it is time for investors and governments to start planning for the worst.

Eric Miller is President of Rideau Potomac Strategy Group and a Fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.

THE 51st STATE
Progressives and fiscal hawks may cut future funding for Israel

Opinion by Eric R. Mandel, Opinion Contributor • 5h ago

Every 10 years, Republican and Democratic administrations, with the support of Congress, sign a memorandum of understanding to assist Israel’s ability to defend itself and, at the same time, they financially strengthen the American defense industry by requiring that all money spent stays in the United States. Even President Obama’s animosity toward Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not stop him from offering Israel “the single largest pledge of bilateral military assistance in U.S. history.‎”



As just one of many examples of how Israel and America help one another, today they are working together to build a hypersonic anti-missile defense system to thwart the threat of Chinese, North Korean and Iranian hypersonic missiles. Israel is allocating more than $200 million in 2023 to develop the Glide Phase Hypersonic Missile Interceptor. That Israel’s military technology benefits American national security is often ignored by those who claim American aid is a one-way street. Last month, Israel struck an advanced missile research site in Isfahan, Iran. Danny Yatom, former head of the Mossad, told Army Radio that the attack “targeted a facility developing hypersonic missiles.”

Yet the future of American foreign aid is anything but certain. A combination of factors will make the seemingly automatic renewal of financial support for Israel a more challenging proposition for any future administration. The current memorandum expires in 2028, just two years before the mothballed Iran nuclear agreement’s sunset provisions expire. The timing is important, since the Biden administration is still trying to convince the Iranians to rejoin the deal (despite claims to the contrary). According to Iran International, the State Department has not denied that the administration’s point man for this, Robert Malley, “met with Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations in New York, at least three times in the last two months.”

There is recent history of Congress challenging U.S. aid to Israel. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) voted with anti-Israel progressives against Iron Dome funding, saying, “My position of no foreign aid might sound extreme to some, but I think it’s extreme to bankrupt our country and put future generations of Americans in hock to our creditors.” Another harbinger of growing Republican isolationism may be the increasing number of Republicans resisting additional aid to Ukraine — which, like Israel, has not asked for American soldiers, only for arms to defend itself.

Meanwhile, the rise of the anti-Israel progressive Democrats means they’ll likely challenge any future funding for the Jewish state. And many mainstream Democrats are fearful that public support of Israel will make them a target for a progressive primary challenge in the next election.

In 2021, Rep. Betty McCollum (D-Minn.) introduced legislation to condition aid to Israel, one of several recent bills aimed at curbing Israel’s policies toward Palestinians. But some progressives, such as Reps. Grace Meng (D-N.Y.) and Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.), condemned the withholding of funding for Iron Dome that same year. Said Torres, “A missile defense system (Iron Dome) defends civilians from missiles — hence, the name. Only in a morally inverted universe would this be considered a ‘controversy.’” His courage in speaking against those who are harshly critical of Israel should be applauded.

As Israeli President Isaac Herzog has said, “It is no secret that the future of the [U.S.-Israel] relationship is increasingly dependent on the next generations and it is where we have an immense challenge.”

Israel could live without American military aid but it would strain Israel’s economy. And it would hurt America’s military preparedness, which has come to rely somewhat on Israeli innovations to protect our soldiers and give us tactical advantages.

Foreign aid, in general, doesn’t play well with the American people. According to Brookings Institution, “Opinion polls consistently report that Americans believe foreign aid is in the range of 25 percent of the federal budget. When asked how much it should be, they say about 10 percent. In fact, at $39.2 billion for 2019, foreign assistance is less than 1 percent of the federal budget.” While it is the “world’s largest provider of foreign assistance in terms of dollars, America falls near the bottom of the OECD countries when spending is compared to its gross national income.”

Many Americans don’t appreciate that, with Israel, we get disproportionate security leverage for a relatively small amount of foreign funding, including intelligence vital to our security, especially since we have chosen to withdraw our emphasis from the Middle East to confront China in the Pacific theater.

In the Middle East, America has had longstanding financial commitments to Israel and Egypt because the 1979 peace agreement has worked remarkably well. The stability of both U.S. allies is vital in keeping the region from coming under the sway of Iran’s Islamist regime or the rise of the jihadist Sunni organizations. This is foreign aid at its best.

Long-range Israeli planners should consider the possibility of decreased American aid in the future. Some believe the relationship would be healthier, stronger and on more equal footing if American financial assistance wound down, thereby decreasing U.S. influence on Israeli policy. Long-term Israeli planners are looking east for relationships with India, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan, to rely on more than just the goodwill of the United States.

But it may not be a choice for Israel, if isolationist and fiscally conservative Republicans, along with anti-Israel Democrats, continue to grow in power in Congress — and especially if one of them becomes president.

Dr. Eric R. Mandel is the director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political Information Network. He regularly briefs members of Congress and their foreign policy aides. He is the senior security editor for the Jerusalem Report. Follow him on Twitter @MepinOrg.

The Hill.

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Report highlights fiscal burden of visitation on Banff, Canmore, Jasper

Story by The Canadian Press • 

A recent report prepared for Banff, Canmore and Jasper underlines what the tourism-based communities have long lobbied the provincial government for – an official tourism-based status that helps support the weight of their visitor economies.

The mountain towns, with a total residential population of around 30,000 people split between them, effectively anchor the tourism industry in the province, and drive substantial economic activity to the broader Alberta economy. According to a December 2022 report by Verum Consulting, the towns generate $112 million in provincial taxes annually and contribute $2.3 billion to provincial GDP.

At the same time, the communities also feel the pressures of supporting an average of four million visitors to Banff National Park annually and two million to Jasper National Park.

“We have about 9,000 residents [in Banff], who, in conjunction with our local businesses, pay the cost of those four million visitors flushing toilets and using wastewater treatment,” said Banff Mayor Corrie DiManno. “They pay for the thousands of hours of garbage collection and recycling sorting needed for the roads and sidewalks that support up to 40,000 people a day in the summertime.”

The tourism economics report analyzes the cost implications of hosting visitors in the tourism-based communities and assesses their fiscal capacity to address these costs.

It found the three municipalities have limited fiscal capacity to generate additional revenues to support visitor populations, although Banff and Jasper do have some ability to increase residential taxes to be more in line with the average of comparable communities.

“If Banff and Jasper were to target the average residential property taxes per dwelling (similar to Canmore’s ranking which is very close to the average of the municipalities), Banff would generate an incremental $1.5 million, and Jasper would generate an incremental $1.1 million in residential taxes,” the report stated.

As for the non-residential tax base, in Banff and Jasper, taxes per business are the highest relative to comparable communities, while Canmore is also above, but close to average which leaves little room for excess fiscal capacity.

The report found Banff, Canmore and Jasper spend well above the per capita average when compared to other Alberta tourism communities on infrastructure needs varying from public transit to waste management.

The 2021 average per capita expenditures of 33 comparable tourism-based municipalities in Alberta was $3,044, where the three mountain towns were found to have an average per capita spend of $5,359 for Banff, $4,463 for Jasper, and $4,126 for Canmore.

Topping the list for Banff’s per capita expenditures are public transit ($384), bylaw enforcement ($126), waste management ($443), public housing operations ($174), wastewater treatment and disposal ($493), and family and community support services ($277).

Canmore ranks first among the communities when it comes to the cost of public housing operations per capita at $366 and second for public transit costs at $87.

In Jasper, parks and recreation, wastewater treatment and disposal, fire services, and family and community support top the list with per capita expenditures of $867, $646, $372, $345, respectively.

Banff, Canmore and Jasper spent $20.5 million, $15 million and $6.5 million, respectively, to support visitor populations in 2021, according to the report.

“I think the number that speaks really boldly in this report is that Banff spends approximately 43 per cent of our budget supporting a visitor population,” said DiManno. “That’s a very significant part of our budget.

“We also generate $2.3 billion in tourism spending for the province, but we’re carrying the bulk of the cost to help with the infrastructure that comes with having visitors to our community.”

In 2021, Canmore saw 26 per cent of its expenditures support visitors, while Jasper saw 32 per cent go toward supporting visitors.

Tourism Canmore Kananaskis (TCK) CEO Rachel Ludwig said the scale of funding for a tourism-based municipality must be fair with the amount it generates to sustain a healthy visitor economy.

A tourism economic impact study of the three mountain towns in 2016 found aggregate direct tourism expenditures in the three communities were more than $1.5 billion. Banff generated $885.5 million, Jasper generated expenditures of $318.4 million and the remaining $344.9 million was generated in Canmore.

“We know that our communities are underfunded when it comes to visitor infrastructure needs, considering there is a much higher visitation than in other communities,” said Ludwig.

The topic of obtaining resort municipality status in each of the three communities has been an ongoing discussion spanning successive provincial governments and more than 20 different ministers, including ministers with municipal affairs, tourism and culture, and the treasury board.

Obtaining the status, which has proven to be a lengthy process, would allow Banff, Canmore and Jasper to implement revenue tools, such as a portion of the hotel tax or real estate transfer among others, to support their tourism-based economies.

Discussions for provincial support to visitor-related expenditures date back further but started in earnest between the three mountain towns in 2008.

The municipalities have discussed various strategies over the years from lobbying for an amendment to the Municipal Government Act so they would be legally recognized as tourism-based communities, to hiring prominent firm New West Public Affairs to assist in their work.


They’ve also tried to change how the province determines population size because many grants are based on a per capita funding formula and the towns of Canmore, Banff and Jasper do not get to count their non-permanent resident population, which swells in the summer months.

Hotel rooms and bed and breakfasts are subject to a tourism tax imposed by the province, but none of the money is returned to the municipalities.

In 2019, Banff-Kananaskis MLA Miranda Rosin submitted a four-page briefing about the ongoing efforts by the towns with background information and statistics to then premier Jason Kenney’s office.

Canmore Mayor Sean Krausert said Rosin, who was appointed Parliamentary Secretary of Tourism last year, has been helpful in advocating for a tourism-based economy status.

“I think her efforts have assisted in moving the conversation forward to be focusing first and foremost on the designation itself,” he said.

For DiManno, she believes all past lobbying efforts – though perhaps unsuccessful in the short term – could soon lead to change.

“I think what we’re really looking for here is clear recognition that our challenges in Banff, Canmore and Jasper are unique and that the pressures on our local population are distinct, and our benefits for the province as a whole are strong,” she said. “I think it’s been really beneficial working together because we have a stronger voice when we’re communicating these common experiences, challenges and opportunities.

“I’m feeling optimistic about where it’s going and I’m hopeful that we will be able to secure that type of recognition in the coming months.”

DiManno said talks with the province are ongoing and the municipalities are doing all they can to be flexible in decision-making.

In light of that, she did not wish to potentially impede discussions by sharing the latest strategies discussed.

“I will say, we are trying to actively listen to what we’re hearing and really trying to adapt to that advice so that we can come up with something that works for our three communities as well as our provincial counterparts,” she said.

The Resort Municipality Initiative (RMI), a program in neighbouring British Columbia, is designed to help small, tourism-based municipalities build and diversify their tourism infrastructure. In 2022, the B.C. government committed to providing $39 million over three years for the RMI to fund infrastructure projects.

At least 14 municipalities in B.C. have been able to secure resort municipality status, including the nearby towns of Golden, Radium, Kimberley, Fernie and Revelstoke.

A funding formula based on the number of accommodations in each town divides the revenue collected by the province among the towns.

Prince Edward Island also has the Resort Municipality of Stanley Bridge, Hope River, Bayview, Cavendish and North Rustico on the north end of the island.

Krausert said the designation as a tourism-based community by the Alberta government is all the Town of Canmore is concerned with right now. Funding allocations have so far not been part of discussions.

But having assistance with visitor infrastructure costs, he said, means more funding could be used to address Canmore’s housing crisis.

“We really need to build more housing for those that are working and living here,” said Krausert. “If we can ultimately get assistance with our higher infrastructure costs, it frees up dollars to be able to address these other issues.”

Banff, Canmore and Jasper have the highest per capita expenditures of any comparable communities in the province, which are spent on infrastructure, amenities and services geared toward hosting visitor populations.

But Ludwig pointed out a tourism-based status may also make sense for another nearby tourist hotspot.

“While Canmore, Banff and Jasper are trying to get special status I would also like to mention that – we don’t know the exact figures for the Kananaskis Improvement District (KID) – but we know KID is facing the same challenges with resident to visitor ratio, which is really much higher than in any other communities,” she said.

The report did not look at KID which experiences some of the same challenges when it comes to managing visitor expenditures versus fiscal capacity.

Kananaskis Country regularly sees in excess of 3.5 million visitors, and in 2020 and 2021, upwards of 5-5.5 million. In comparison, only about 200 people live in K-Country.

Residents and businesses made up less than half of all calls to Kananaskis Emergency Services in 2022, yet nearly half of KID’s proposed operating budget of $2.5 million is for emergency services.

In 2022, there were 10 calls from residents, 109 from businesses and 122 from visitors. While visitors make up for more than half of the number of calls, the burden of taxation rests mostly on local businesses and a small number of residential ratepayers.

Most of those visitors to K-Country also aren't stopping to shop and fund local businesses in Kananaskis Village, for example, but to recreate outdoors.

“All of those infrastructure needs are there and need to be addressed with a very small budget,” said Ludwig. “And that’s very similar to what the Town of Canmore is facing as well.”

KID council has expressed interest in discussing what a similar status that supports a visitor-based economy could look like in K-Country. Though, discussions are in much earlier days than Banff, Canmore and Jasper.

“As a council, we do face some of the very same challenges that are being highlighted for those communities,” said KID council chair Melanie Gnyp. “We are interested in exploring this further, but we are sort of just doing our homework on it now.

“I wouldn’t rule it out, but we really have to do our due diligence and see if this is something that makes sense for us, and we just haven’t had the opportunity to get through that work yet.”

While there are challenges that come with managing a visitor economy, Ludwig noted the importance visitors play in supporting local businesses and generating revenue in the towns.

“Yes, the visitor economy does cost the municipality, but it also brings back revenue to all our small businesses that are making a living from the visitors as well,” she said.

Jessica Lee, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, Rocky Mountain Outlook

Review: Thunberg aims to educate with 'The Climate Book'

“The Climate Book,” by Greta Thunberg (Penguin Press)

Review: Thunberg aims to educate with 'The Climate Book'

Skipping school to sit outside the Swedish Parliament in 2018 with a sign reading “School Strike for Climate” at the age of 15, Greta Thunberg promised she would never stop calling out leaders and governments for refusing to take strong enough actions to mitigate climate change.

Fast forward five years and while Thunberg is no longer a teenager, she is as blunt as ever. “Leaving capitalist consumerism and market economics as the dominant stewards of the only known civilization in the universe will most likely seem, in retrospect, to have been a terrible idea,” she writes in “The Climate Book.”

Divided into five parts — How Climate Works, How Our Planet is Changing, How It Affects Us, What We’ve Done About It and What We Must Do Now — the book features 105 guest essays covering everything from “ice shelves to economics, from fast fashion to the loss of species… from water shortages to Indigenous sovereignty, from future food production to carbon budgets.” Thunberg’s goal is to raise public awareness by sharing the best available science to shine a spotlight on what we’ve done to the Earth and what we must do to keep it habitable by humanity.

Stuffed with charts and graphs and photos spread across two pages (all in black and white, a curious design choice), the book is sure to educate anyone who gives it an honest reading. Yet it’s difficult to shake a feeling of doom as you turn the pages. The current way of life in the “Global North,” as Thunberg calls the leading Western democracies responsible for most of the world’s carbon emissions, is not sustainable. If we continue to insist on flying around the world, eating authentic Japanese sushi in New York, driving our SUVs, and on and on, we will eventually change planetary systems to such a degree that life as we know it won’t be possible.

Some of the book’s contributors manage to balance the gloom with glimmers of hope. Writing about the remarkable events of the last few years, Canadian public policy researcher Seth Klein finds comfort in the global response to COVID-19: “We witnessed governments… creating audacious new economic support programs with a speed that few would have predicted.” If governments would take a similar approach to electrifying everything with green power, he argues, Homo sapiens might survive. As other essayists point out, however, it’s impossible until the largest governments in the world start treating the climate crisis like a true crisis.

And so hopefully billions of people read “The Climate Book” and enough of them rise up to demand change. 3.5%. That’s the magic number mentioned by Harvard political science professor Erica Chenoweth in her essay, “People Power”: “Among non-violent movements attempting to overthrow their own governments, none has failed after mobilizing 3.5% of their population to engage in mass demonstrations.” And in the end, that’s Thunberg’s ultimate prescription, too: “I would strongly suggest that those of us who have not yet been greenwashed out of our senses stand our ground.”

Rob Merrill, The Associated Press

Don’t let hydrogen tax credit become a fossil fuel subsidy, academics, civil society groups tell Ottawa

Story by The Canadian Press • 

The federal government plans to introduce a tax credit for clean hydrogen investments in Budget 2023, but academics and some civil society groups say there’s a risk it could end up subsidizing fossil fuels if it’s not done right.

Hydrogen made from renewable energy — like wind and solar — could help Canada reduce its greenhouse gas emissions in sectors that can’t be electrified, like cement and steel production and maritime shipping, according to a letter 110 academics and 55 civil society groups penned to federal ministers.

But if projects that use natural gas and carbon capture technology to produce hydrogen are eligible for the investment tax credit, fossil fuel use and infrastructure will get locked in and jeopardize the country’s emission reduction goals, it says.

The letter was sent to Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson, Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault and Innovation, Science and Economic Development Minister François-Philippe Champagne on Feb. 8.

The federal government is in the midst of developing the refundable tax credit, which would be available for any investments made starting the day Budget 2023 is released this spring. The tax credit will be phased out by 2030.

To avoid turning the hydrogen tax credit into a new fossil fuel subsidy, the letter recommends barring any form of hydrogen made using fossil fuels from receiving the credit.

Hydrogen is often colour-coded depending on how it is produced. When it's made from renewable energy, it's known as green hydrogen. When it's made from fossil fuels, it's grey, and when it's produced from fossil fuels with carbon capture, it's dubbed blue. The federal government’s hydrogen strategy doesn’t distinguish between green and blue; instead, it uses the term “clean” hydrogen.

Related video: What's holding back the hydrogen industry in Canada? (cbc.ca)

Duration 1:24  View on Watch

For this reason, Environmental Defence, one of the civil society groups involved with the letter, is urging Ottawa to pick an emissions intensity limit — which would determine what types of hydrogen projects are eligible for the credit — that excludes fossil fuel-made hydrogen with or without carbon capture technology.

“We are seeing hydrogen being put forward as this climate panacea, and it's really dangerous,” said Julia Levin, national climate program manager with Environmental Defence. “It's another false illusion. It's another distraction.”

Companies also should not be able to pair the hydrogen credit with Ottawa’s investment tax credit for carbon capture, utilization and storage, the academics and civil society groups maintain, pointing to the latter’s general underperformance and inability to address issues like methane leakage.

Projects that do not have free, prior and informed consent from Indigenous communities should also be ineligible, the letter states. Additionally, it says all projects receiving the tax credit must be responsible for and deal with any harmful impacts on communities.

The letter also warns against blending hydrogen into the natural gas grid to heat homes and buildings. Canada’s hydrogen strategy says doing so will reduce emissions in the short term, while an analysis of dozens of studies found using hydrogen for domestic heating is more expensive, less efficient and more resource-intensive and has larger environmental impacts than alternatives like heat pumps.

Hydrogen cycles through the atmosphere faster than CO2 but over a 20-year period, it has 33 times more warming potential than an equal amount of CO2, according to a 2022 study by the U.K. government.

While hydrogen does not emit carbon dioxide (CO2) when burned, it does emit nitrogen oxide, a pollutant with detrimental effects on human health, particularly the respiratory system.

Natasha Bulowski, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, Canada's National Observer

Greenpeace to appeal Spain-Saudi arms deal confidentiality

MADRID (AP) — Greenpeace said Monday it will appeal a Spanish Supreme Court decision blocking public access, on national security grounds, to information on government export licenses for vehicle-mounted weapons systems sold to Saudi Arabia.

The global environmental and human rights group argues that the Alakran 120 mm mortar system developed by the Madrid-based firm NTGS was deployed by the Saudi-led coalition on the border with Yemen, endangering civilian lives. The weapon’s use “not only violates the Spanish law on arms trade control, but also the international Arms Trade Treaty signed by Spain,” Greenpeace argued.

Greenpeace asked the trade ministry in 2020 for copies of recent export licenses for the mortar system, but was denied on grounds of national security and official secrets laws.

The Supreme Court upheld the ministry’s decision on Feb. 7, arguing that the NGO had not demonstrated sufficient public interest to warrant declassifying the licenses. The court further argued that the right to access license details was “subjective,” and that Greenpeace had failed to prove that fundamental human rights would be harmed as a result of the ministry withholding the information.

Greenpeace can appeal the decision before Spain's Constitutional Court, but vowed to take it to the European Court of Human Rights if necessary.

“Only an informed citizenry can prevent human rights violations in any society," said Lorena Ruiz-Huerta, lawyer for Greenpeace Spain, in a statement. “It is time for judges and courts to recognize Spanish men and women as citizens with full rights to truthful information on issues that affect human rights,” she added. Spanish law prohibits weapons export licensing where human rights would be violated.

As a longtime commercial ally of Saudi Arabia, Spain is the fourth largest provider of military equipment and weapons to the Gulf state, according to Amnesty International. Madrid canceled the delivery of 400 laser-guided bombs purchased by Saudi Arabia in 2018 following criticism from human rights groups.

Yemen’s war began when the Iran-backed Houthis seized the country’s capital, Sanaa, in September 2014 and forced the internationally recognized government into exile. A Saudi-led coalition — armed with Western weaponry and intelligence — entered the war on the side of Yemen’s exiled government in March 2015.

Currently all sides appear to be looking for a solution after eight years of a war that has killed more than 150,000 people, fragmented Yemen and driven the Arab world’s poorest country into collapse and near starvation.

The Associated Press

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for PERMANENT ARMS ECONOMY 

Thousands of children abused by members of Portugal's Catholic Church over 70 years - report

Story by By Catarina Demony and Miguel Pereira • 

LISBON (Reuters) -At least 4,815 children were sexually abused by members of the Portuguese Catholic Church - mostly priests - over the past 70 years, a report by the commission investigating the issue said on Monday, adding the findings are the tip of the iceberg.

A cross at the top of a church is seen on the day Portugal's commission investigating allegations of historical child sexual abuse by members of the Portuguese Catholic church will unveil its report, in Lisbon© Thomson Reuters


A church is seen on the day Portugal's commission investigating allegations of historical child sexual abuse by members of the Portuguese Catholic church will unveil its report, in Lisbon© Thomson Reuters


Journalists are seen reflected of the glasses of Pedro Stretch, child psychiatrist and head of the commission investigating allegations of historical child sexual abuse by members of the Portuguese Catholic church, during a news conference in Lisbon© Thomson Reuters

"(We want) to pay a sincere tribute to those who were abuse victims during their childhood and dared to give a voice to silence," said child psychiatrist Pedro Strecht, who headed the commission. "They are much more than a statistic."

Strecht said the 4,815 cases were the "absolute minimum" number of victims of sexual abuse by clergy members in Portugal since 1950.

Most perpetrators (77%) were priests and most of the victims were men, Strecht said, adding that they were abused in Catholic schools, churches, priests' homes, confessionals, among other locations.

Related video: Legislators eye changes to care for child abuse victims (KOAT Albuquerque)  Duration 2:23   View on Watch

The majority of the sexual abuses took place when the children were aged 10-14, with the youngest victim being just two-years-old.

Jose Ornelas, head of the Bishops' Conference, attended the final report's presentation and will respond to it later on Monday. The Church has previously said it was prepared to "take appropriate measures".

The Portuguese Catholic Church was rocked last year by cases of alleged cover-up of sexual abuse including by bishops who remain active in church roles. The commission said it was preparing a list of accused priests still working.

The Portuguese commission started its work in January 2022 after a report in France revealed around 3,000 priests and religious officials sexually abused over 200,000 children.

The abuse allegations have come from people from various backgrounds, from every region of the country and also from Portuguese nationals living in other countries in Europe, Africa and the Americas.

The commission spoke with over 500 victims, analysed historical church documents and interviewed bishops and other clergy members.

A total of 25 of the testimonies heard by the commission were sent to the public prosecutors' office for investigation as all others were committed over 20 years ago and legal proceedings can no longer be initiated.


The commission investigating allegations of historical child sexual abuse by members of the Portuguese Catholic church attends a news conference in Lisbon© Thomson Reuters

The commission said the law should be changed so legal proceedings can be initiated for historic crimes committed 30 years ago.

The commission, which says it is independent, was financed by the Catholic Church. Asked by Reuters in December 2021 if that could be a threat to the commission's independence, Strecht said he would be the first to walk out and denounce it if the church intervened in the process.

(Reporting by Catarina Demony; Editing by Andrei Khalip, Jon Boyle and Mike Harrison)

CANADA

Personnel shortage challenging Air Force's plan to introduce F-35, other equipment

Story by The Canadian Press • 9h ago

OTTAWA — A model F-35 sits in a place of prominence on the corner of Lt.-Gen. Eric Kenny's desk. The miniature grey aircraft is propped in the air by a plastic stand as if it is flying, and Royal Canadian Air Force markings are visible on its wings.

Displaying such a model inside National Defence Headquarters, let alone on the desk of Canada's Air Force commander, was strictly verboten before the Trudeau government officially committed to buying the plane last month.

With the decision made, Kenny is now able to do more than display a model on his desk. He can also speak openly about the Air Force's plan to transition from its aging CF-18s to the F-35, part of what he describes as a larger leap into a new age for the organization.

"It's an exciting time," he said in an interview. "The F-35 is going to not only bring us into being a fifth-generation Air Force, it's really going to change how the Department of Defence looks at security and data and information, and what we do with that data."

Between plans to buy armed drones, launch satellites and upgrade North America's early warning system, the F-35 is just one of several high-tech additions that Kenny suggests will firmly entrench the Air Force in the 21st century over the next decade.

"The Air Force of 2035 is going to look completely different than the Air Force in 2023," he said. "The amount of projects that are going through right now is similar to what we saw in the late '70s and early '80s."

Yet while Kenny and his staff have developed a carefully choreographed plan to make the transition as seamless as possible without putting the country at risk over the next decade, it isn't without its risks.

That starts with a shortage of personnel.

Like the rest of the Canadian Armed Forces, the Air Force is struggling to recruit and retain enough people to fill its ranks. Kenny revealed the Air Force is short nearly 2,000 full-time members and 500 reservists, at a time when it is supposed to be expanding.

"And we expect the gap to become bigger up until 2025, assuming we achieve our recruitment numbers," he said.

Those personnel shortages are expected to put pressure on the Air Force as it tries to co-ordinate, for example, the training of personnel for the F-35 while having enough pilots, mechanics and other members to continue flying the CF-18 until the transition is completed.

"All this only works if we have people," he said. "So I have to balance the people piece, not only of today, but of the future."

The successful arrival of the first F-35 on Canadian soil by 2029 will also require significant upgrades to the Air Force's aging hangars and maintenance facilities at its main fighter bases in Bagotville, Que., and Cold Lake, Alta., as well as the military's computer networks.

"What we need to do is have enough time to have all the infrastructure in place, the security in place, the (information technology) backbone, so that when the F-35 comes to Canada, we actually have capability," he said.

Plans to modernize the North American Aerospace Defence Command, or Norad, which is responsible for guarding the continent against airborne attack, will also require significant investments in sensors and control centres over the next decades — including in the Arctic.

Yet Ottawa's record on military infrastructure is extremely mixed, particularly in the Far North. The Defence Department recently confirmed delays in upgrading and rebuilding two jetties in Esquimalt, B.C., and a new armoury in New Brunswick.

All of that is in addition to constant delays in procuring new military equipment — and problems when that equipment is finally delivered, which the Air Force has seen first-hand with its new Kingfisher search-and-rescue planes and Cyclone helicopters.

The Kingfishers were an example of how a carefully laid plan by the Air Force got derailed by delays, with Kenny having to reassign transport planes and air-to-air refuellers to save Canadians in distress while waiting for the new planes to be ready.

Acknowledging the challenges, Kenny said he will do what he can to ensure a smooth transition for the Air Force into the future — a transition he says is critical as adversaries develop new weapons and flex their muscles in new and worrying ways.

"There's always so much complexity with each of these projects, and there's possibilities that certain things will be later than others and therefore there'll be a ripple effect," he said.

"I'm going to do whatever I can to make sure we deliver as fast as we can. Because if we don't, then I think we're at risk of not being able to meet the future security threats that are coming."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 13, 2023.

Lee Berthiaume, The Canadian Press

Laid-off Google workers say the impersonal way the company let them go shows it's 'just as cutthroat corporate as anybody else'

Google told affected US staff in an early-morning email on January 20 that "we no longer have a job for you." Sajjad Hussain

/AFP via Getty Images

Story by gdean@insider.com (Grace Dean) •

One security engineer, who found out he was laid off after he got a notification on his work phone overnight and realized he couldn't unlock his company devices, told Insider that being let go in this way was a "shock."

"That wasn't the culture that we worked in, at least before that point," he said. "How Google behaved was not Google."

Many laid-off workers spoke on the condition of anonymity over concerns speaking to the press could violate their severance package or because they may want to return to Google in the future, but their identities are known to Insider.

Google is known for its rigorous interview process and its workers are frequently targeted by headhunters, but many choose to stay on because of the open culture, benefits — like on-site laundry and gyms — and job security.

Paul Baker, a video production manager, told Insider that he "100% embraced Google culture" and would sometimes spend the whole day on campus. "I drank the Kool-Aid," he said.

"Google felt like my home," a member of Google's analytics team who'd been there for around a decade told Insider. "It was a family ... You could feel it when you walked through the door."

He said he felt "taken advantage of." The decision to lay staff off over email was "inhuman" and showed that Google was "just a company," he said.

One laid-off technical program manager said she'd turned down other job offers and moved cross-country when she started her job less than a year ago. Reading the email, she "broke down in tears," she said.

Other laid-off workers told Insider the email layoffs "came off as lazy," showed "cowardice," and "really stunk."

"The mechanics of it all are very unpleasant," one said.

Related video: Google employees stage protests over job cut, labour conditions (The Times of India)

Baker told Insider he was laid off while on paid carers' leave. A friend messaged him about the layoffs, and Baker realized he was affected when he couldn't log into his laptop.

"This is kind of unprecedented because Google's never acted like this before," he said. "We're basically cut off and I'm still in a scramble trying to figure out: How does my severance work while I'm on carer's leave?"

Other workers were laid off while on maternity leave.

Baker said he wasn't resentful about the impersonal nature of the layoffs, "just extremely disappointed."

Nicholas Whitaker, who worked in Google's people development team before being laid off, told Insider that when he saw messages from colleagues that morning asking if he was okay, he thought there'd been a shooting or a natural disaster.

His initial reaction was "complete shock and dismay," he said, describing the lack of personal outreach as a "slap in the face."

"The thing that stings the most is just the lack of respect and the lack of humanity in the way that it was approached."

Laid-off workers said in many cases their managers reached out on other channels to offer support and express surprise at the layoffs after affected employees were swiftly cut off from corporate communication channels. Many managers appear to not have been told in advance about the layoffs or asked to help select employees. Two of the laid-off workers Insider spoke to said their managers had also been let go.

Time zones created further problems. While many workers in the US woke up to their termination email or got it before they were due to start work, this wasn't the case for employees in Europe. Dan Lanigan-Ryan, a recruiter based in Ireland, told Insider that he gradually got locked out of company accounts, which other workers put down to tech problems, culminating in a call with a job candidate dropping.

"I was blocked out of everything. And then I saw on the news about 15, 20 minutes later that Google was announcing 12,000 layoffs," he said.

Google publicly announced the layoffs at around 2:30 a.m. PT, 5:30 a.m. ET, and 10:30 a.m. GMT.

Lanigan-Ryan said that because he was a contractor, he didn't get a termination email from Google, instead just getting a message a few hours later from his agency.

The 10-year analytics employee said that some US staff hadn't received the email, because Google had the wrong email address on file.

Two decade-long employees who weren't affected by the layoffs told Insider that staff were now uncertain about their jobs and feared further workforce reductions.

"Anything that used to feel special or like you really were a part of a mission — not just a big money-making machine — that feeling is I think gone," an engineer on the West Coast said. An East Coast engineer questioned what distinguished Google from other companies for remaining staff being headhunted now that their sense of job security was gone.

"To preserve the culture of the company, I would've liked to see layoffs done in a more concerted and thoughtful way," one laid-off worker, who'd been at Alphabet's treasury for around five years, said.

"I just can't understand why Google would've selected to squander the trust that employees have in the company by doing it this way."

A technical writer at Google who wasn't laid-off told Insider remaining staff feel "expendable" and were having trouble focusing. She called the layoffs a "massive betrayal of trust."

"It feels very much like they are just as cutthroat corporate as anybody else," a laid-off employee who'd been at Google Cloud for close to five years said.

"The crown has fallen here."

Were you laid off by Google? Or do you still work there? Contact this reporter at gdean@insider.com.

Aerospace suppliers face competition for hires from planemakers

Story by By Valerie Insinna •


FILE PHOTO: Technicians work on the assembly line of Embraer's E-Jet family in Sao Jose dos Campos© Thomson Reuters

SEATTLE (Reuters) - Aerospace suppliers are gearing up for a hiring spree in 2023 but could face stiff competition for skilled laborers, including from their top customers - planemakers Boeing and Airbus.

The tight labor market is a key factor in the industry's supply-chain shortages, and could determine whether Boeing and Airbus meet near-term production goals, industry officials said.

Executives at last week's Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference, a gathering of top suppliers, expressed concern about replacing workers who left through layoffs or attrition during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

"We just had massive, massive hiring problems in 2021 and 2022," said Chris Celtruda, chief executive of Valence Surface Technologies, which provides metal finishing and specialty coating services to Boeing and Airbus.

While staffing has "definitely gotten better," Celtruda noted small companies in Washington state that make up Boeing's supply chain will have to compete with Boeing itself, which announced plans to hire 10,000 workers in 2023 and add a fourth 737 MAX line in Everett in mid-2024.


Cessna employee Dwight Bennett works on the Cessna business jet assembly line at their manufacturing plant in Wichita, Kansas© Thomson Reuters

Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun said in January that the planemaker's production rate would hinge on suppliers' ability to find trained labor.

Related video: Airline industry faces shortage of commercial pilots (cbc.ca)

Duration 1:59  View on Watch

The workforce at Orion, a subassembly manufacturer that laid off half its workforce in 2020, grew by 17% in 2022 and it plans to expand by another 33% in 2023, CEO Jerry Chase said. That means adding 30 jobs "while everybody else is trying to recruit people." But he also worries about hiring too soon, risking workers sitting around if supply-chain problems persist.

Since the pandemic, the aerospace supply chain has been hobbled by shortages in castings and forgings — particularly for aircraft engines — as well as a recent scarcity in extrusions, or other molded parts that can have lead times of up to 80 weeks, said Kevin Michaels, managing director of consultancy AeroDynamic Advisory.


 An IAG Iberia's worker inspects an engine after transforming an Airbus 330 passenger aircraft into a cargo one in Madrid© Thomson Reuters

“Labor is the root cause of all three (parts shortages), and these bottlenecks in turn are leading, not surprisingly, to reduced inventory,” Michaels said.

Aircraft manufacturers have expressed concerns about poaching employees from its suppliers. Airbus human resource chief Thierry Baril said in December the company is monitoring recruitment to ensure its supply chain is not weakened. The company plans to hire 13,000 workers in 2023, with more than 9,000 jobs to be located in Europe.

Despite efforts to retain employees, overall turnover in the aerospace industry still grew from 5.8% to 7.1% in 2022, as inflation prompted workers to seek higher-paid jobs, according to a study by the Aerospace Industries Association.

(Reporting by Valerie Insinna, editing by Ben Klayman and Nick Zieminski)