Tuesday, April 11, 2023

A World Heritage Site in danger: more than half of lagoons in Doñana have disappeared


The Doñana Participation Council meets to analyse the proposed law that aims to extend legal irrigation in the Doñana region. Spain is sentenced by the Court of Justice of the European Union for failing to fulfil its legal obligations towards the World

Business Announcement

SPANISH NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL (CSIC)

Eloy Revilla, director de la Estación Biológica de Doñana – CSIC, has participated at the extraordinary plenary session of the Doñana Participation Council to analyse the proposed law presented in the Andalusian Parliament, that aims to regulate irrigation areas in Doñana, and its repercussions on the conservation status of the Doñana aquifer on which numerous species and habitats listed as priorities by Andalusian, Spanish and EU legislation depend.

In his intervention, Eloy Revilla has begun by recalling that “Spain is sentenced by the Court of Justice of the European Union for failing to fulfil its legal obligations under the Water Framework Directive and the Habitats Directive, by not taking into account the illegal water abstractions for cultivation nor the water abstraction for urban supply in the estimation of total groundwater abstractions in the Doñana region, as well as by failing to provide any measure to prevent the alteration caused by groundwater abstractions to the habitat types listed as priority habitats.

Effects of the loss of habitats classified as temporary lagoons on biodiversity

During his speech, the director has presented some of the data generated by the scientific work of the Doñana Biological Station, which are yielding devasting results in relation to the state of the lagoons and other habitats and also to the biodiversity that depends on them.

In the last study published in the journal Science of The Total Environmentdata shows that the deterioration of the Doñana lagoon system is widespread. Fifty-nine percent of the surveyed lagoons have not been flooded since at least 2013. The observed changes are significantly related to temperature and precipitation each year, as well as to the extent of cultivated areas, the urbanized surface of Matalascañas, the distance to the urbanisation pumping stations and the operability of the golf course. With these analyses, we can see the effect of human variables related to water consumption once the effect of climatic variables has been controlled for: 80% of the lagoons had a negative anomaly on the date of drying up, and 84% in the surface flooded, i.e. lagoons have worsened more than expected due to rainfall and temperature alone.

 “In Mediterranean systems, droughts are recurrent, but when the succession of years withouth flooding episodes exceeds the average recurrence time, the vegetation of the lagoons disappears and thus the habitats listed in the Habitat Directive are lost”, has explained. This is what happened with the nineteen percent of the 267 lagoons sampled have been completely lost as they are now totally invaded by terrestrial vegetation. In addition, another 19% of the lagoons have more than 50% of their basin invaded by scrubland and pine trees. Only 10% are in good condition, mainly located in La Vera area.

The three lagoons that functioned as permanent ones have lost its permanency. The lagoons “Sopetón” and “La Dulce”, which only dried up occasionally, now dry out frequently. The situation in Santa Olalla lagoon was extreme in the summer of 2022, when it dried up completely. “This lagoon also dried up partially in 1983 and 1995, on both occasions after four successive years of drought. We are currently also in a dry period, but Santa Olalla is showing minimum values of its flooded surface area since 2012, despite the fact that both 2010 and 2011 were rainy years”, says Revilla.

This situaton is affecting the unique fauna and vegetation of Doñana. For example, as the flooding period for all amphibians has shortened, Amphibians have lost a large number of their breeding sites. According to data, amphibian species richness has been reduced from an average of 4.3 species/km2 in 2003 to 2.5 species/km2 in 2021. The decline of the two freshwater turtles species, native to the Iberian Peninsula and included in European red lists is also worrying, as well as the situation of dragonflies and damselflies. For instance, in 1959, 43 species have been described, but only 26 species have been detected in the last decade, with solely 12 species observed in 2022. Doñana conserves endangered fish species, such as the tusk, the salinette, or the European eel. However, for example, the total drying up of Santa Olalla in 2022 has meant the death of the eels remaining in this last permanent lagoon. And this critical situation is not only affecting animal groups. It is also having negative effects for the conservation of aquatic plants, mainly associated with long hydroperiod lagoons and some of which with restricted distributions and threatened.

In addition to the temporary lagoons, there are other priority habitat types whose conservation depends directly on an aquifer in good condition, such as heathlands. Associated with the decline and loss of the black forest within the Natural Area, numerous trees are being defoliated and dying, including multi-centenary cork oaks, which is a good indicator of the exceptional nature of the current situation. Since their last survey in 2009/2010, 8.3% have died, while a further 10.7% are in very poor condition, with a generalised tendency towards defoliation.

The Proposed Law

Climate change is changing rainfall patterns, changes that will intensify in the future and indicate a clear decrease in water availability. On the other hand, the demand for water in the Doñana region has continued to increase. For example, irrigation in the crown of the forest increased from 2162 ha in 2004 to 3543 ha in 2014 (an increase of more than 30%), and the area occupied today is even greater.

In relation to the proposed law presented in the Andalusian Parliament, Eloy Revilla wanted to give a clear position: “The current exploitation of the aquifer is not sustainable. This means that more water resource is being used than is being regenerated annually through recharge by precipitation, which is variable and decreasing, depleting this natural resource”.

In addition, he affirmed that the uncontrolled proliferation of irrigated crops without the corresponding authorisations shows the unsustainability caused by a “clear failure in governance” by appropriate administrations. According to him, it shows a clear lack of political willpower to solve the problem. “This executive inaction is what has led us to the unsustainable critical point reached in Doñana's conservation status.”

According to the director of the Doñana Biological Station, the additional need to provide water to farms without concessions, as proposed in the new law, makes it even more difficult to find an urgent solution to the problem. “The current situation in Doñana is critical and does not allow to wait another decade for decisions to be taken to adjust water demand to availability”, he said. “If this was done, we would be imposing, against current legislation, the complete loss of the temporary lagoon systems and other habitats dependent on the aquifer. In addition, if we do not act urgently, the depletion of the resource will mean that legal farms will have irrigation problems, as is already happening in this 2022-2023 campaign, putting at risk the economic activity that depends on the aquifer as a whole.

The problem we face is very complex, as will be its solution. “The creation of false expectations, which we know beforehand cannot be met, only adds complexity to the problem. A childish dialectic of good guys and bad guys is used, which only seeks confronting different parts of society against each other”, he criticized.  “It is important to remember that, to be economically, socially and environmentally sustainable, human activities, including economic activities, need a predictable and well-preserved environment.

Proposals to stop the deterioration of Doñana

To conclude his speech, the director of the Doñana Biological Station offered some guidelines to prevent further degradation of the World Heritage Site.

He proposes to urgently reduce the total amount of water abstracted from the aquifer to levels that will allow starting recovery. Only then, its exploitation can be sustainable in the short, medium and long term. He also proposes to update the system for assessing the state of the Doñana aquifer and to carry out annual assessments of the availability of water in the aquifer to define the maximum quantities that can be extracted from it. 

Eloy Revilla also believes it is necessary to urgently re-establish governance in the exploitation and management of water and land in Doñana and its region so that they are within the current legality and to address the vulnerability of legal farmers in the face of the uncertainty created by the proposed law, the loss of brand value of their products and the unfair competition from illegal producers and the uncertainty for the future.

Moreover, he calls on a multilateral working commission titled “Doñana 2030” to be started up urgently, as was approved by the former Participation Council, to make rapid and coordinated progress in improving the governance and conservation of Doñana and its region, allowing the critical situation of the aquifer to be addressed, as well as other important problems of Doñana such as water pollution or the intense overgrazing.

He also proposes to intensify the monitoring of natural systems and species affected by the profound changes that are occurring due to overexploitation of resources and climate change, as well as to carry out a socio-economic analysis in order to design the appropriate policies to develop sustainable agriculture in the region and give incentives for diversification of economic activity.

 “The future of Doñana and its region depends on our decisions, which, I have to remind you, is not only a local or regional value, but a universal heritage site of all humanity. You have to choose how you want to go down in history,” he concluded.

CSIC Andalucía Comunicación/CSIC Comunicación

comunicacion@csic.es

Protecting the cultural heritage of ancient bone artifacts is now possible. Near-infrared hyperspectral imaging and radiocarbon dating together to make the invisible visible


Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITÀ DI BOLOGNA

Cristina Malegori and Sahra Talamo 

IMAGE: CRISTINA MALEGORI AND SAHRA TALAMO AT THE RADIOCARBON DATING LAB BRAVHO AT THE UNIVERSITY OF BOLOGNA view more 

CREDIT: UNIVERSITY OF BOLOGNA

An innovative method developed by an Italian team is emerging that will revolutionize the field of archaeology and radiocarbon dating and protect our cultural heritage. The researchers have used it with surprising results on archaeological bones, making the ‘invisible’ visible.

This important achievement-published in the journal Communications Chemistry of the Nature group-is the result of extensive research work coordinated by Professor Sahra Talamo, in which experts in the field of analytical chemistry from the University of Bologna and the University of Genoa collaborated.

The group has developed a new technique for analyzing archaeological bones that, for the first time, makes it possible to quantify and map at high resolution the presence of collagen, the invisible protein that is essential for making radiocarbon dates and thus obtaining new information on human evolution.

“Our results will offer significant advances for the study of human evolution,” says Talamo coauthor of the study and director of the Radiocarbon dating lab BRAVHO at the University of Bologna. “as we will be able to minimise the destruction of valuable bone material, which is under the protection and enhancement of European cultural heritage and thus allow us to contextualise the valuable object by providing an accurate calendar age.”

Many of the rarest prehistoric bones found by archaeologists are enormously precious and are considered to be part of our cultural and historical patrimony. Bones can provide a great deal of information about ancient populations’ lives: what they ate, their reproductive habits, their diseases and the migrations they undertook. However, bones cannot give us all the information we so covet. Their potential to convey information is limited by how much collagen is preserved in them.

In order to combine the need to preserve the integrity of the artifacts as much as possible with the need to carry out radiocarbon analyses, the researchers therefore developed an innovative method that, thanks to a camera coupled with near-infrared, allows them to detect the average collagen content in the observed samples.

“We used imaging technology to quantify the presence of collagen in bone samples in a non-destructive way to select the most suitable samples (or sample regions) to be submitted to radiocarbon dating analysis,” says Cristina Malegori, first author of the article and researcher at Genoa University Department of Pharmacy. “Near-infrared hyperspectral imaging (HSI) was used along with a chemometric model to create chemical images of the distribution of collagen in ancient bones. This model quantifies the collagen at every pixel and thus provides a chemical mapping of collagen content.”

It is extremely difficult, costly, and time-consuming to analyze all the bones present at one archaeological site for collagen preservation, most importantly, it would result in the destruction of valuable material. In fact, human fossils and/or bone artifacts are increasingly rarer and more precious over time. Because of the diagenetic alteration of collagen over time, large starting weights of Palaeolithic bones (≥ 500 mg bone material) are necessary to extract sufficient collagen for accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C dating (minimum 1% yield). Moreover, many of the most precious archaeological bones are too small (< 200 mg of bone material) and/or too beautiful for sampling. Therefore, obtaining preliminary, non-destructive information about the distribution of collagen on a bone sample is crucial.

It is in this context that the technique described in this study really shines because it allows obtaining information both on the location and on the content of the collagen still present in a bone sample.

“The near-infrared hyperspectral imaging camera (NIR-HSI) used in the present study is a line-scan (push-broom) system that acquires chemical images in which, for every pixel, a full spectrum in the 1,000–2,500 nm spectral range (near infrared) is recorded,” says Giorgia Sciutto, co-author of the article and professor of environmental and cultural heritage chemistry at the University of Bologna. “NIR-HSI analysis is completely non-destructive. The time required for the analysis of a single bone sample is of few minutes and, therefore, the system can examine many samples in a single day to find those suitable for analysis, saving time and money and the unnecessary waste of valuable material, greatly reducing time, costs and destruction of valuable samples.”

This technique is expected to support the selection of samples to be submitted to radiocarbon analysis at many sites where previous attempts have not been possible because of poor preservation.

“This new technique allows not only selecting the best specimens but also choosing the sampling point in the selected ones based on the amount of collagen predicted,” says Paolo Oliveri co-author of the paper and professor at the Genoa University Department of Pharmacy. “This method helps to drastically reduce the number of samples destroyed for 14C analysis, and within the bone, it helps to avoid the selection of areas that may present a quantity of collagen not sufficient for the dating. This increases the preservation of precious archaeological materials.”

“The potential of the method proposed in the present study lies in the type and amount of information that the predictive model provides, addressing two fundamental and complementary questions for the characterization of collagen in bones: how much and where,” says Cristina Malegori, first author of the article.

Thus, this experimental approach can provide quantitative information related to the average collagen content present in the whole sample submitted for investigation. The examination can be performed not only in small and localized areas (as in single-point analysis), but it can also consider the entire surface of the sample, thus producing a higher and much more significant amount of data. In addition, combining the HSI system with PLS regression allowed, for the first time, on samples of ancient bones, not only to determine the overall collagen content but also to localize it at a high spatial resolution (about 30 um), obtaining quantitative chemical maps.

“As far as radiocarbon is concerned, we could strategically sample bones of high patrimonial value. For example, knowing the precise amount of collagen concentrated in a precise area of the bone allows us to cut only this portion,” says Talamo. “Moreover when the prediction of collagen shows that the bone was poorly preserved, we can decide to perform a soft 14C pretreatment to minimize collagen loss during the extraction”.

Overall, this innovative and incisive combination of NIR-HSI spectroscopy prescreening and the radiocarbon method provides, for the first time, detailed information about the presence of collagen on archaeological bones, reducing laboratory costs by dating only materials suitable for 14C and increasing the number of archaeological bones that can be preserved, and, therefore, available for future research.

Lessons learned from COVID: The role of social media

Researchers found that social media played a critical role in decreasing COVID positivity rates at educational institutions

Peer-Reviewed Publication

RENSSELAER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE

Sebastian Souyris and Anton Ivanov 

IMAGE: SEBASTIAN SOUYRIS, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR AND DEAN R. WELLINGTON ’83 (JUNIOR) CHAIR AT RENSSELAER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE’S LALLY SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT, AND ANTON IVANOV, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR IN THE GIES COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS URBANA-CHAMPAIGN. view more 

CREDIT: RENSSELAER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE

Now that we’ve arguably rounded the corner from the pandemic, researchers are dissecting our response and how we can improve it in the future.

Sebastian Souyris, assistant professor and Dean R. Wellington ’83 (Junior) Chair at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute’s Lally School of Management, contributed to research led by Anton Ivanov, assistant professor in the Gies College of Business at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. This recently published research examined social media’s impact on health outcomes and dove into the power of visual nudges.

The research team discovered that employing social media posts as a means of visual nudging to encourage safe behaviors significantly impacts COVID-19 positivity ratesImages that communicated the value of wearing masks made a real difference. This effect remains evident even after accounting for various organizational characteristics and disease dynamics at multiple levels.

“Our findings are significant to public health institutions and experts,” Souyris said. “Visual nudges are non-invasive, cost-effective methods to shape attitudes and behavior.”

The team found that visual nudges by institutional actors, such as a university, result in decreased COVID-19 positivity rates of up to 25%. Further, the value of these visual nudges is highest three to five weeks in advance.

“Our empirical results show that four to five weeks of accumulation usually create the momentum required for people to bring that topic to the top of their agenda,” Ivanov said.

High levels of uncertainty added to the public health challenge of COVID-19. After public places shut down, there was a lack of consensus on what they should do to reopen safely. Previous research found that in such a climate, mandates are not enough to ensure maximum compliance and that social media is a critical outreach tool.

The team, which included Dr. Souyris, built upon existing research and the relatively new concept of nudge theory. Nudge theory focuses on using indirect suggestions and positive reinforcement to influence behavior, especially when applied visually. Prior to this study, visual nudges specific to social media had not been explored extensively.

The team analyzed data from 117 universities nationwide. They examined COVID-19 testing data; Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter images from official university accounts; university policies; and university and local characteristics. They found that so-called “soft” visual nudges were most effective, in that they did not have a direct message to wear a mask but simply depicted people wearing masks.

“Although we certainly hope that a crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic will not happen again, it behooves us to learn from our experience to enable a more effective response in the future,” said Chanaka Edirisinghe, acting dean of Rensselaer’s Lally School of Management. “Dr. Souyris’ research profiles the benefits of using the simple, inexpensive tool of social media to deliver vital public health information.”

About Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute:

Founded in 1824, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute is America’s first technological research university. Rensselaer encompasses five schools, over 30 research centers, more than 140 academic programs including 25 new programs, and a dynamic community made up of over 6,800 students and 104,000 living alumni. Rensselaer faculty and alumni include upwards of 155 National Academy members, six members of the National Inventors Hall of Fame, six National Medal of Technology winners, five National Medal of Science winners, and a Nobel Prize winner in Physics. With nearly 200 years of experience advancing scientific and technological knowledge, Rensselaer remains focused on addressing global challenges with a spirit of ingenuity and collaboration. To learn more, please visit www.rpi.edu.

Visit the Rensselaer research and discovery blog: https://everydaymatters.rpi.edu/

Follow us on Twitter: @RPINews

Study finds disparate gender differences in victims of child sex trafficking

Study first to test for gender differences in risk factors, experiences of youth incarcerated for childhood prostitution

Peer-Reviewed Publication

FLORIDA ATLANTIC UNIVERSITY

Gender Differences in Risk Factors,  Experiences of Youth Incarcerated for Childhood Prostitution 

IMAGE: THE STUDY, BY FAU'S COLLEGE OF SOCIAL WORK AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE, EXAMINED A NATIONALLY REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE OF INCARCERATED YOUTH INVOLVED IN PROSTITUTION, WHICH WAS DEFINED AS “BEING PAID FOR HAVING SEXUAL RELATIONS WITH SOMEONE.” view more 

CREDIT: FLORIDA ATLANTIC UNIVERSITY

In the United States, federal laws were created to effectively decriminalize prostitution in minors under the age of 18. However, state and local justice systems continue to arrest and incarcerate minors for prostitution, despite widespread agreement that youth involved in commercial sexual exploitation are victims, not offenders. 

Most youth tend to fall victim to child prostitution and sex trafficking between the ages of 12 and 14. Victims of child prostitution have especially high rates of prior physical, sexual and emotional abuse as well as neglect. 

Calli M. Cain, Ph.D., an assistant professor at Florida Atlantic University’s College of Social Work and Criminal Justice, examined the characteristics and risk factors such as victimization histories, living situations and drug/alcohol use, of incarcerated youth charged with prostitution in the U.S. Given that males and females have different pathways to crime/arrest, she also tested for gender differences in these risk factors. 

The study, published in the journal Victims & Offendersis the first to look at gender differences in a nationally representative sample of detained youth. Results show that this population of incarcerated youth has several risk factors, including extensive victimization experiences during childhood, and that these experiences vary by gender.

The sample included 2,643 incarcerated youth involved in prostitution, which was defined as “being paid for having sexual relations with someone.”

Among the key findings of the study:

  • Seventy-five percent were males and 25 percent were females. The most commonly incarcerated youth were white males (29.4 percent), about 16 years old, followed by black (26.8 percent) and Hispanic (24.7 percent) males.
  • About 30 percent of the female sample were white, followed by two or more races/other (24.6 percent), black (23.7 percent) and lastly Hispanic (21.6 percent).
  • Nearly 43 percent indicated they had been molested as a child and more than 35 percent had experienced forced sex growing up.
  • Nearly half (45.9 percent) indicated they had experienced emotional abuse; the majority (85.3 percent) also indicated they had witnessed serious violence.

“Most youth charged with prostitution have an extensive history of victimization experiences and detaining them often exacerbates their problems, delays appropriate care, interrupts their education, exposes them to youth who commit more serious offenses, and increases justice system costs,” said Cain.

The study showed that female youth charged with prostitution had significantly higher prevalence rates of every form of victimization except witnessing serious violence. Nearly four out of five females reported experiencing physical abuse as a child compared to just over half of males.

  • Almost two-thirds of the girls were molested as a child, half were raped, and three-fourths were emotionally abused as a child, compared to 36 percent of males who were molested, 31 percent who were raped, and 37 percent who were emotionally abused.
  • Significantly more females (84 percent) reported using substances every day or several times a week in the months before custody compared to 75 percent of males.
  • Females had far higher rates of polyvictimization; 80 percent reported three or more victimization types compared to males (49 percent), and 31 percent of females experienced all five types of prior victimization (e.g., physical and emotional abuse, molestation, forced sex growing up) compared to 11 percent of males.

In relation to living circumstances, males were significantly more likely to have lived with their parent(s) growing up compared to females. Alternatively, females were more likely to be living in foster care/group homes, with friends, on their own, or were homeless before their arrest, compared to males.

“Education and training are crucial for professionals to correctly identify sex trafficking victimization and reduce misidentification, especially since most victims of sex trafficking do not identify themselves as victims,” said Cain.

With April being “National Child Abuse Prevention Month,” gaining a better understanding of risk factors associated with commercial sexual exploitation among this group of youth is imperative. Cain says such endeavors could improve early intervention efforts, a coordinated and collaborative criminal justice response, and responsive public policy to reduce harm and improve outcomes for affected youth.

“Providing this population of youth with treatment and perhaps residential care in a safe environment could help them exit ‘the life’ and prevent them from being re-trafficked, which is a common occurrence when they are treated punitively by the Juvenile Justice System,” said Cain.

This study utilized secondary data from the Survey of Youth in Residential Placement, sponsored by the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention. This is the only nationally representative, anonymous, self-report survey that collects detailed information directly from justice-involved youth about their prior victimization experiences.

For more information about child sex trafficking training provided by Calli Cain, contact cainc@fau.edu.

- FAU -

About Florida Atlantic University:
Florida Atlantic University, established in 1961, officially opened its doors in 1964 as the fifth public university in Florida. Today, the University serves more than 30,000 undergraduate and graduate students across six campuses located along the southeast Florida coast. In recent years, the University has doubled its research expenditures and outpaced its peers in student achievement rates. Through the coexistence of access and excellence, FAU embodies an innovative model where traditional achievement gaps vanish. FAU is designated a Hispanic-serving institution, ranked as a top public university by U.S. News & World Report and a High Research Activity institution by the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching. For more information, visit www.fau.edu.

Pilot study finds metabolic alterations related to sexual and physical abuse

– Further research into oxidative stress and transsulfuration in the context of trauma is needed

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF EASTERN FINLAND

A pilot study conducted at the University of Eastern Finland found metabolites related to oxidative stress and the transsulfuration pathway of one-carbon metabolism to be associated with a history of sexual or physical abuse in depressed adolescent outpatients. Oxidative stress and transsulfuration are closely connected and regulate each other’s functions, and they play a role in inflammation, which is also recognized as a possible mechanism of trauma. The results were published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, the European Journal of Psychotraumatology, in a special issue entitled “Biological mechanisms underlying adverse mental health outcomes after trauma.”

“Although the results are clearly preliminary and require further confirmation, the extent of similar findings in the literature related to the biological effects of trauma is convincing. Oxidative stress and the inflammatory system have often been associated with post-traumatic stress. Oxidative stress refers to an excess of unstable oxygen-containing molecules, which damage cells and have numerous consequences, whereas the end product of transsulfuration is an antioxidant compensating for this damage,” says Doctoral Researcher Karoliina Kurkinen from the University of Eastern Finland.

The study included 76 depressed adolescent outpatients, whose blood samples were analysed with mass spectrometry to determine the concentrations of specific metabolites. In addition to metabolites taking part in oxidative stress and transsulfuration, metabolites related to the methionine cycle of one-carbon metabolism, mitochondrial dysfunction and inflammation were also found to be associated with a history of abuse in these patients. These associations became smaller after taking into account depression and lifestyle-related background variables. This exploratory pilot study should be replicated with a larger data set comprising post-traumatic stress disorder patients and healthy controls. In addition, future research could examine the levels of hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal axis hormones and interleukins to take stress and inflammation better into consideration.

“Depression is a very common symptom in traumatized patients, but so are fight and flight-related symptoms, which relate to stress and activation of the sympathetic nervous system. It would be interesting to further investigate the biological mechanisms behind these two different symptom clusters, how they overlap and affect each other, and which pathways would be most helpful to intervene in for a traumatized patient,” Kurkinen says.

Cities will need more resilient electricity networks to cope with extreme weather

Peer-Reviewed Publication

LUND UNIVERSITY

Dense urban areas amplify the effects of higher temperatures, due to the phenomenon of heat islands in cities. This makes cities more vulnerable to extreme climate events. Large investments in the electricity network will be necessary to cool us down during heatwaves and keep us warm during cold snaps, according to a new study led by Lund University in Sweden.

“Unless we account for extreme climate events and continued urbanisation, the reliability of electricity supply will fall by up to 30%. An additional outlay of 20-60 per cent will be required during the energy transition in order to guarantee that cities can cope with different kinds of climate,” says Vahid Nik, Professor of Building Physics at Lund University and one of the authors of the article in Nature Energy.

The study presents a modelling platform that ties together climate, building and energy system models in order to facilitate simulation and evaluation of cities’ energy transition. The aim is to secure the cities’ resilience against future climate changes at the same time as densification of urban areas is taking place. In particular, researchers have looked closely at extreme weather events (e.g. heatwaves and cold snaps) by producing simulations of urban microclimates. 

“Our results show that high density areas give rise to a phenomenon called urban heat islands, which make cities more vulnerable to the effects of extreme climate events, particularly in southern Europe. For example, the outdoor temperature can rise by 17% while the wind speed falls by 61%. Urban densification – a recommended development strategy in order to reach the UN’s energy and climate goals – could make the electricity network more vulnerable. This must be taken into consideration when designing urban energy systems, says Kavan Javanroodi, Assistant Professor in Building and Urban Physics.

“The framework we have developed connects future climate models to buildings and energy systems at city level, taking the urban microclimate into account. For the first time, we are getting to grips with several challenges around the issues of future climate uncertainty and extreme weather situations, focussing in particular on what are known as ‘HILP’ or High Impact Low Probability events”, says Vahid Nik.

There is still a large gap between future climate modelling and building and energy analyses and their links to one another. According to Vahid Nik, the model now being developed makes a great contribution to closing that gap. 

“Our results answer questions like ‘how big an effect will extreme weather events have in the future, given the predicted pace of urbanisation and several different future climate scenarios?’, ‘how do we take them and the connections between them into account?’ and ‘how does the nature of urban development contribute to exacerbating or mitigating the effects of extreme events at regional and municipal level?’ “

The results show that the peaks in demand in the energy system increase more than previously thought when extreme microclimates are taken into account, for example with an increase in cooling demand for 68% in Stockholm and 43% in Madrid on the hottest day of the year. Not considering this can lead to incorrect estimates of cities’ energy requirements, which can turn into power shortage and even blackouts. 

“There is a marked deviation between the heat and cooling requirements shown in today’s urban climate models, compared to the outcomes of our calculations when urban morphology, the physical design of the city, is more complex. For example, if we fail to take into account the urban climate in Madrid, we could underestimate the need for cooling by around 28%,” says Kavan Javanroodi.

Vahid Nik explains that an increasing number of countries have become interested in extreme weather events, energy issues and the impact on public health. At the same time, there are no methods of quantifying the effects of climate change and planning for adapting to them, especially when it comes to extreme weather events and climate variations across space and time. 

“Our efforts can contribute to making societies more prepared for climate change. Future research should aim to examine the relationship between urban density and climate change in energy forecasts. Furthermore, we ought to develop more innovative methods of increasing energy flexibility and climate resilience in cities, which is a major focus of research for our team at the moment,” says Vahid Nik.