Thursday, June 08, 2023

ALBERTA LEADS IN UFO SIGHTINGS IN CANADA
Canada attends first-of-its-kind UFO briefing at the Pentagon

Story by Alexander Panetta • Yesterday

The Canadian government has confirmed its participation in a first-of-its kind international meeting on unidentified flying objects hosted at United States military headquarters.

The gathering at the Pentagon late last month comes amid a burst of activity in Washington and eye-popping news reports related to so-called Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP).

It featured a U.S.-led briefing to visitors from nations of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance, which includes Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand.

The Canadian Department of National Defence told CBC News in an email that Canada attended the meeting, led by a Royal Canadian Air Force representative.

"The details of the meeting remain classified," DND said in an email. "It can be characterized as the sharing of information on the subject of UAP and no further details can be shared at this time."

The meeting featured a presentation by Dr. Sean Kirkpatrick — the veteran scientist in the U.S. national-defence establishment who leads the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO), a new entity created in 2022 to lead UAP-related activities for the U.S. military.

Kirkpatrick publicly revealed the Five Eyes gathering last week while speaking at a public conference hosted by NASA.

"I have just held our first Five Eyes forum on this subject," Kirkpatrick said.


The Pentagon is seen from Air Force One as it flies over Washington, March 2, 2022. A new Pentagon office set up to track reports of unidentified flying objects has received 'several hundreds' of new reports, but no evidence so far of alien life. That's according to the leadership of the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office.© Patrick Semansky/AP

He explained the goal of meeting allies: to co-ordinate more closely with friendly nations in pooling information on UAP sightings.

The creation of his office is part of a surge in activity following a 2017 report in The New York Times on bizarre sightings kept secret by the U.S. military.

In the wake of that report, Kirkpatrick's office was created, the U.S. government now produces an annual report on UAP sightings and Congress created a system for government whistleblowers to report sightings.


Whistleblower Accuses US and Allies of Secret UFO Retrieval Program (Wibbitz - News)
Duration 1:31  View on Watch



Now two of the journalists who wrote that watershed 2017 report have taken one giant leap forward — and reported extraordinary new allegations.

This week they described jaw-dropping new claims from a decorated former combat officer who served as the U.S. Department of Defense's representative to a UAP task force from 2019 to 2021.

Jaw-dropping new claims

David Grusch was quoted in their print report, and in a later televised interview, saying the United States has in its possession aircraft of non-human origin.

And not just one aircraft, he says — but many.

He says the discoveries are numerous, involving everything from wreckage up to intact vehicles, and he says these items have been collected for decades — by the U.S. government, by allies and by defence contractors.

He says this information is being illegally withheld from members of Congress and he's alerted them as well as the inspector general for the American intelligence community.

Authors who reported on his allegations for the science site The Debrief quoted other U.S. officials vouching for Grusch's credibility, including Jonathan Grey, an officer in the intelligence community with a top-secret clearance.

"The non-human intelligence phenomenon is real. We are not alone.… Retrievals of this kind are not limited to the United States. This is a global phenomenon, and yet a global solution continues to elude us," Grey says in the report.

NASA and Pentagon officials present UFO preliminary findings

NBC News

NASA’s top scientists and a team from the Department of Defense met today for a first-of-its-kind public hearing on UFOs. NBC News’ Miguel Almaguer has more details on their preliminary findings



This, to be clear, is not the official United States government line.

There is no credible evidence to date of extraterrestrial activity, non-earthly technology or objects that defy the known laws of physics, Kirkpatrick said in recent testimony before the United States Senate.

Additionally, the latest annual UAP report did not cite any evidence of extraterrestrial technology.

It said that of 366 recorded sightings, 163 wound up being balloons or balloon-like entities, 26 were categorized as unmanned aerial vehicles and six were aerospace clutter.

However, it said 171 sightings remain unexplained.

The U.S. military disputes Grusch's suggestion that it holds evidence of alien aircraft.

In an email to CBC News, Pentagon spokeswoman Sue Gough said, "AARO has not discovered any verifiable information to substantiate claims that any programs regarding the possession or reverse-engineering of extraterrestrial materials have existed in the past or exist currently."

She said AARO is committed to following the data and its investigation wherever it leads.

 

SEE

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanton_T._Friedman

Stanton Terry Friedman (July 29, 1934 – May 13, 2019) was an American nuclear physicist and professional ufologist who resided in New Brunswick, Canada.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qvd986WnPMQ

Jul 5, 2022 ... Famed U.F.O. expert and research Stanton Friedman examines the fear of embracing the U.F.O. phenomenon, his four conclusions about the ...

https://bookshop.org/contributors/stanton-t-friedman

He began the civilian investigation of the Roswell Incident; wrote Flying Saucers and Science and TOP SECRET/MAJIC; and coauthored Crash at Corona, Captured!


https://www.amazon.com/UFOs-Science-Slaying-Physicist-Friedman/dp/B07FPRTYVG

There are secret government and scientific sources of proof of true alien UFOs, This presentation includes the details of advanced nuclear fission rockets that ...

https://sgp.fas.org/library/ciaufo.html

It chronologically examines the Agency's efforts to solve the mystery of UFOs, its programs that had an impact on UFO sightings, and its attempts to conceal CIA ...

https://biblio.uottawa.ca/atom/index.php/friedman-stanton-t

File consists of correspondence with Stanton T. Friedman regarding various UFO researchers and writings, a presentation by Friedman, entitled "UFO ...

Canada under pressure to produce more food, protect agricultural land: report

Canada’s agricultural land is under increasing pressure to produce more food as demand grows domestically and internationally, while the industry grapples with limited resources and environmental constraints, a new report found. 

“We need to grow more food on less land and in a volatile climate,” said Tyler McCann, managing director of the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute.

The report by the institute released Thursday looks at the pressures on Canada’s agricultural land to produce more food while also mitigating and adapting to the effects of climate change, said McCann. 

Despite Canada being a big country, it doesn’t have as much agricultural land as people might think, said McCann, with the report noting that agricultural land makes up only around seven per cent of the country. 

Because of that, we can’t take what we do have for granted, he said. “We need to be really thoughtful about how we are using our agricultural land.” 

In 2020, Canada was the eighth largest country in terms of cropland area, the report said, with that cropland decreasing by seven per cent over the previous two decades. 

Canada is a major producer and net exporter of agriculture and agri-food products, the report said, exporting $91 billion in products in 2022, and one of the top 10 exporters of wheat, canola, pulses, pork and beef. 

In the coming years, Canada will face increased demand from countries whose populations are growing, the report said. 

"With population growth on one side and climate change on the other, Canada will be amongst an increasingly smaller number of countries that is a net exporter,” said McCann, noting that Canada's own population is growing, and farmland also needs to be protected against urban sprawl. 

The wildfires clouding Canadian skies this week are a “vivid reminder” of the pressure that extreme weather and the changing climate are putting on the agricultural sector, said McCann. 

“We need to clearly mitigate ... agriculture’s impact on climate change. But we also need to make sure agriculture is adapting to climate change’s impacts,” he said. 

One of the ways the world has responded to demand for increased agricultural production over time is to create more agricultural land, in some cases by cutting down forests, said McCann. But that’s not a viable option for Canada, which doesn’t have a lot of land that can be sustainably converted into farmland -- and even if it could, doing so could have a variety of adverse environmental effects, he said. 

Some of the practices used to reduce emissions and sequester carbon in agriculture can also improve production output on existing farmland, the report found, such as precision agriculture and no-till practices.

However, intensifying the production of current agricultural land also comes with potential environmental downsides, the report said.

For example, McCann said fertilizer is an important part of sustainable agriculture, but there’s a balance to be struck because excessive use of fertilizer can quickly turn food production unsustainable. 

“We need to be a lot more thoughtful about the inputs that we’re using,” he said, adding the same can be said about the use of technology in agriculture and the policies and programs put in place to encourage sustainable intensification of Canadian agriculture. 


The report recommends that Canada adopt policies that provide financial incentives and technical assistance to farmers and develop regulatory frameworks promoting sustainable land use, as well as promoting education and awareness campaigns, so that the country can “ensure the long-term sustainability of its agricultural sector while protecting the environment.”  

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 8, 2023.

Four directors step down from Indigo board, Reisman also leaving in August

Nearly half the board of Indigo Books and Music Inc. is stepping down — including founder and executive chair Heather Reisman — in a stunning announcement that saw one director allege poor leadership and treatment.

Reisman, who built Indigo into Canada's biggest bookstore chain over a quarter-century, said she will retire this summer.

More immediate is the resignation of four other directors, including Dr. Chika Stacy Oriuwa. Appointed to the board in 2020, Oriuwa stepped down "because of her loss of confidence in board leadership and because of mistreatment," Indigo said in a release Wednesday.

The company provided no explanation for the departures of the three other directors — Frank Clegg, Howard Grosfield and Anne Marie O'Donovan — who collectively had served on the board for 40 years.

The four resignations had taken effect when the statement was released Wednesday morning.


The announcements mark another major hiccup for the company after a February cyberattack that compromised current and former employees' personal information — including medical and immigration data — and halted online sales at the retailer for almost a month. Meanwhile, consumers are showing signs of cutting back on indulgences such as games and household items that comprise a hefty chunk of Indigo’s inventory. 

Reisman said the time had come for her to step back from an active role at the retailer.

"Deciding when it is time to move on is one of the toughest decisions a founder must make, but I know this is the right moment for me," she said in the release.

"Building Indigo over the past 25 years has been the adventure of a lifetime. As I embark on this new chapter, I will be rooting for the company every step of the way."

Indigo wished the departing directors well and thanked them for their contributions.

In an emailed statement, spokeswoman Melissa Perri said while this is a time of change at the board level for the company, Indigo remains confident in its business, its finances and its long-term strategy. She said work is being done during this transition time to ensure a strong team of board directors is in place. 

Reisman will retire as executive chair and from the board effective Aug. 22, the company said.

She stepped down as chief executive of Indigo last year as part a transition that saw Peter Ruis, who had been the retailer's president, promoted to chief executive.

NB INC.

Irving Oil launches strategic review, includes possible sale 

NATIONALIZE IT

Irving Oil Ltd., the operator of Canada’s largest crude refinery, is reviewing strategic options that may include putting billions of dollars worth of key North American refining and fuel-distribution assets up for sale.

Other options include a change in the portfolio of its assets and how it operates them, though “no decisions have been made about where this strategic review may lead,” the company said on its website Wednesday. 

The review raises the possibility that some important North American downstream facilities may change hands. Irving’s refinery in Saint John, New Brunswick, has the capacity to process 320,000 barrels of oil a day and supplies gasoline to much of the U.S. Northeast as well as eastern Canada. Irving also runs more than 900 filling stations in eastern Canada and New England, a refinery in Ireland and sells heating oil and propane.

The New Brunswick refinery is valued at roughly US$2 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Irving’s Whitegate Refinery in County Cork, Ireland, has a 75,000 barrel-per-day capacity and is worth an estimated $185.7 million. 

The Irvings are one of Canada’s wealthiest families — famous for their secrecy and their control of natural resources in the eastern part of the country, particularly the province of New Brunswick. The company is owned by Arthur Irving and was part of a commodity conglomerate founded by his father, K.C. Irving. Arthur Irving, whose signature is on Wednesday’s statement, is the country’s 16th-richest person with a net worth of $5.3 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

The New Brunswick plant has been a buyer of crude oil from the Bakken formation of North Dakota and is generally the sole Canadian purchaser of Saudi crude oil. 

The potential sale comes as many such plants in North America have closed or converted to processing biofuels as motor-fuel demand wanes. That includes the Come-By-Chance refinery in Newfoundland, which went offline during the pandemic.

Freeland tries to calm 'anxious' Canadians after fresh rate hike

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland tried to reassure Canadians that the economy is still headed for calmer times after the central bank unexpectedly resumed raising interest rates.

“There are a lot of Canadians who are anxious right now and who will be concerned when they see this step taken by the Bank of Canada,” Freeland told reporters outside the Ottawa legislature.

But she said the robust labor market and the “core strength and the resilience of the Canadian economy” mean people still have steady paychecks despite rising mortgage payments and annual inflation still hovering above 4 per cent.

“Having a good job is the key to the wellbeing of every single Canadian and their family. It’s the key to being able to pay your rent or your mortgage,” Freeland said.

After pausing its rate-hiking cycle in January, policymakers led by Governor Tiff Macklem raised the overnight lending rate on Wednesday by 25 basis points to 4.75 per cent — the highest since 2001.


The move was expected by only about one in five analysts in a Bloomberg survey. It was prompted by evidence of an overheating economy, including stronger-than-expected first quarter output growth, an uptick in inflation and a rebound in housing-market activity.

Freeland pointed to the fact the Bank of Canada still sees inflation coming down to 3 per cent this summer. “We are coming to the end of this difficult path out of the Covid economy,” she said. “The destination is stable, low inflation and steady, strong growth. And that is the direction that we are heading.”

However, the opposition Conservative Party quickly declared it will be going on the attack against Freeland and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. “Trudeau must get his spending under control before it’s too late,” Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said in a statement, calling the rate hike “a disaster for the many Canadians barely hanging on.”

Poilievre’s finance critic, Jasraj Singh Hallan, also published a letter requesting an emergency debate on the topic in parliament. 


In a surprise move, Bank of Canada hikes key interest rate to 4.75%


The Bank of Canada defied expectations by restarting its interest-rate tightening campaign, saying the economy is running too hot.

Policymakers led by Governor Tiff Macklem raised the overnight lending rate to 4.75 per cent on Wednesday, the highest since 2001. The move was expected by only about one in five economists in a Bloomberg survey, and markets had put the odds at about a coin flip.

“Overall, excess demand in the economy looks to be more persistent than anticipated,” the bank said in its rate statement, which wasn’t accompanied by a new set of forecasts. Bonds plunged, sending the Canada two-year yield to 4.571 per cent at 10:23 a.m. — the highest since August 2007. The loonie jumped to $1.3347 per US dollar.

Since declaring a conditional pause in January, policymakers have warned that further rate increases may be necessary. And while some Canadians are feeling the pinch of steeper borrowing costs, the bank’s move from the sidelines suggests officials are worried that economic momentum won’t slow enough without another hike.

“Monetary policy was not sufficiently restrictive to bring supply and demand into balance and return inflation sustainably to the 2 per cent target,” the bank said, citing an “accumulation of evidence” that includes stronger-than-expected first quarter output growth, an uptick in inflation and a rebound in housing-market activity.

The move follows a surprise 25 basis-point boost Tuesday by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The Bank of Canada was the first and only Group of Seven central bank to pause its hiking cycle. Now it’s changed its mind, conceding that higher borrowing costs are still required to bring inflation to heel in an economy that’s proving more resilient than anticipated.

Macklem and his officials pointed to elevated three-month moving measures of underlying price pressures as a key reason for their move. “Concerns have increased that CPI inflation could get stuck materially above the 2 per cent target,” they said.

The statement was light on forward-looking commentary, suggesting policymakers aren’t yet sure whether the move will end up as a fine tuning or the start of another series of increases. Officials said they plan to examine how excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behavior evolve.

Although specific guidance around being prepared to increase borrowing costs again wasn’t in the statement, it’s “possible that we could see a follow up hike if signs of economic slack opening up aren’t clear in forthcoming data,” Katherine Judge, an economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, said in a report to investors. 

During the U.S. regional bank crisis in March, it looked as though Macklem and his officials had hit pause at the right time — they had brought Canada’s economy to a terminal point without a hard landing scenario, and inflation was falling. 

The financial turmoil led many to expect that the Federal Reserve wouldn’t hike much further, reducing concerns about rate divergence and imported inflation, given the U.S. is by far the northern nation’s top trading partner.

Now the data suggest that pause was premature. Canada’s economy has proved to be surprisingly more immune to higher borrowing costs than most economists expected. Many saw massive debt loads and a bloated housing market as big reasons why Macklem could stop raising rates ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other peers.

The Bank of Canada flagged stronger-than-expected gross domestic product, including “broad-based” consumption gains even after accounting for record population growth. Policymakers also called Canada’s labour market “tight,” noting that while immigration and higher participation rates are expanding the supply of workers, new employees are being hired immediately, which reflects “continued strong demand for labour.”

On Thursday, Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry will provide a more thorough explanation of the bank’s decision in a speech in Victoria, followed by a news conference.

Rental market will suffer most amid Bank of Canada interest rate hike: Experts

The Bank of Canada’s decision to hike rates on Wednesday will put additional pressure on Canada’s already tight rental market, experts say.

The BoC’s surprise 25-basis-point hike has pushed the overnight lending rate to 4.75 per cent and will indirectly cause shelter costs, such as the price of rent, to rise as landlords look to pass off higher costs to tenants, housing experts warn.

“We’re going to see the biggest impact of today’s hike in the rental market,” John Pasalis, president of Realosophy Realty, told BNN Bloomberg in an interview on Wednesday.

Pasalis explained that people looking to rent a condo right now, or those who have been displaced by the sale of an investment property, are the most vulnerable in this environment as the space becomes more crowded. 

“Today’s rate hike is going have a psychological effect that will keep homebuyers on the sidelines as they wait for rates to come down – meaning more people will now compete for a rental unit,” he added.

While the BoC isn’t responsible for sky-high rents, these interest rate hikes will make any type of housing affordability more challenging, Pasalis said.  

In addition to putting more cost pressure on the rental market, the rate hikes also hinder housing supply, one realtor explained. 

“These rising rates are acting as a blockage for more properties to come online as people hold off on selling or buying homes in an uncertain interest rate environment,” Phil Soper, president and chief executive officer of Royal LePage, told BNN Bloomberg in an interview on Wednesday.

Soper explained that while the hike was necessary to keep home prices from accelerating further, there is a negative short-term impact people must deal with amid the transition.

“What policymakers can do right now to ease rental pressures is make existing properties easier to divide and create sub-suites,” he added.

Having these kinds of options is going to be critical for both landlords and renters, broker Frank Leo of Frank Leo & Associates, told BNN Bloomberg.  

“The speed at which interest rates have climbed has not allowed for landlords or renters to prepare for the heightened cost of housing,” Leo said.

In this scenario, he advises people to prepare as much as possible for what might lie ahead.

“A lot of people are scared right now because they know they’re going to have to renew their mortgage at significantly higher rates, or, sell their investment properties if they can’t find a way to keep up with the costs,” he added.  

“It takes time to get things in order and today’s interest rate decision tells us we still have an inflation problem and our troubles aren’t over yet,” Leo said.


Former Bank of Canada economist 

says communications likely played 

into rate hike decision

A former Bank of Canada economist said the central bank’s surprise decision to hike interest rates may have been a communications strategy as well as a response to strong recent economic data.

Canada’s central bank announced Wednesday that it was raising its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.75 per cent in its continued bid to bring down inflation, breaking from a pause on rates hikes it had held since January’s hike to 4.5 per cent.

The June rate increase went against most economists’ expectations, including those of Charles St-Arnaud, now chief economist at Alberta Central and a former economist at the Bank of Canada.

St-Arnaud told BNNBloomberg.ca that he thought the central bank would wait for more data before raising rates again, but he wasn’t necessarily surprised by Wednesday’s hike, given the recent data suggesting economic resilience to higher interest rates – particularly an uptick in inflation in Statistics Canada’s latest inflation reading.

The Bank of Canada’s reputation with Canadians may have also weighed on policymakers’ minds before deciding to hike, St-Arnaud said, and the June rate hike may have offered a way to “restore credibility” and signal its aggressiveness on inflation.


“It's as part economics, but part also expectations and communication,” St-Arnaud said in a telephone interview on Wednesday. “I think what pushed them is that (they’ve) had some reputational issues to solve.”

He noted that the Bank of Canada has taken criticism for leaving interest rates low while inflation was rising in 2021 and early 2022. Because of that, the central bank now likely wants to tell the public that it is taking the fight against inflation seriously.

“It’s probably a communication and reputational reason to do it, basically to signal to everyone and to also influence expectations that, ‘We will be aggressive. Inflation is going back to two per cent, so don't expect it to be sticky.’”

ECONOMIC DATA, INFLATION OUTLOOK

The Bank of Canada cited data showing a recent rise in inflation, stronger-than-expected economic growth, rebounds in consumer spending and housing and resilience in the labour market in a Wednesday statement explaining its policy decision.

“Overall, excess demand in the economy looks to be more persistent than anticipated,” the Bank of Canada’s statement read, noting that this has complicated its fight to get inflation down to two per cent.

“With three-month measures of core inflation running in the 3.5 to four per cent range for several months and excess demand persisting, concerns have increased that CPI inflation could get stuck materially above the two per cent target.”

St-Arnaud said the central bank’s next moves will depend on what future data show, but he noted that the Bank of Canada appears laser-focused on inflation, and more hikes may be in the cards without signs of that figure easing.

Further rate increases can’t be ruled out for the year ahead, he said, and “any talk of rate cuts in the near future should be completely erased.”

“They’re really telling us that it's inflation, front and foremost .. It’s really, ‘Our focus is only inflation. Any type of upside, surprise, you can expect that we will most likely react to it,’” he said.


READ: Full text of Bank of Canada's latest interest rate decision

The Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate target by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.75 per cent on Wednesday. Here is the text of the central bank's rate announcement:

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 4.75 per cent, with the Bank Rate at five per cent and the deposit rate at 4.75 per cent. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Globally, consumer price inflation is coming down, largely reflecting lower energy prices compared to a year ago, but underlying inflation remains stubbornly high. While economic growth around the world is softening in the face of higher interest rates, major central banks are signalling that interest rates may have to rise further to restore price stability. In the United States, the economy is slowing, although consumer spending remains surprisingly resilient and the labour market is still tight. Economic growth has essentially stalled in Europe but upward pressure on core prices is persisting. Growth in China is expected to slow after surging in the first quarter. Financial conditions have tightened back to those seen before the bank failures in the United States and Switzerland.

Canada's economy was stronger than expected in the first quarter of 2023, with GDP growth of 3.1 per cent. Consumption growth was surprisingly strong and broad-based, even after accounting for the boost from population gains. Demand for services continued to rebound. In addition, spending on interest-sensitive goods increased and, more recently, housing market activity has picked up. The labour market remains tight: higher immigration and participation rates are expanding the supply of workers but new workers have been quickly hired, reflecting continued strong demand for labour. Overall, excess demand in the economy looks to be more persistent than anticipated.

CPI inflation ticked up in April to 4.4 per cent, the first increase in 10 months, with prices for a broad range of goods and services coming in higher than expected. Goods price inflation increased, despite lower energy costs. Services price inflation remained elevated, reflecting strong demand and a tight labour market. The Bank continues to expect CPI inflation to ease to around three per cent in the summer, as lower energy prices feed through and last year’s large price gains fall out of the yearly data. However, with three-month measures of core inflation running in the 3.5-4 per cent range for several months and excess demand persisting, concerns have increased that CPI inflation could get stuck materially above the two per cent target.


Based on the accumulation of evidence, Governing Council decided to increase the policy interest rate, reflecting our view that monetary policy was not sufficiently restrictive to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation sustainably to the two per cent target. Quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of monetary policy and normalizing the Bank's balance sheet. Governing Council will continue to assess the dynamics of core inflation and the outlook for CPI inflation. In particular, we will be evaluating whether the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour are consistent with achieving the inflation target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 7, 2023.


FEARMONGERING

Governments should be bracing for a recession with interest rates elevated: John Manley

BUSINESS LOBBYIST FOR BILLIONAIRES

As the Bank of Canada resumed its cycle of interest rate hikes, a former federal finance minister said governments should be looking for policy options to help guide Canada to a “soft landing” with the possibility of a downturn ahead.

After holding rates steady for five months, the central bank went against economists’ expectations and raised interest rates a quarter of a percentage point to 4.75 per cent on Wednesday in response to strong economic data, including a recent uptick in inflation.

John Manley, a former federal finance minister and now senior advisor at Bennett Jones, told BNN Bloomberg that as the Bank of Canada’s battle to bring inflation back to two per cent continues, governments should keep in mind that “every time there has been a sharp decrease in inflation engineered by monetary policy, there has been a recession.”

“In the minds of the politicians, they‘ve got to start thinking now, ‘How do we make sure if there’s a recession coming that it’s a relatively soft landing,” Manley said in a television interview on Wednesday.

“The (Bank of Canada) will be concerned with that as well.”


Manley said he anticipates some economic pain such as job losses ahead. If the predicted recession materializes, he said governments will first need to support people who are in the most in need when it comes to essentials like affordability, food and housing – and they should offer supports “in a non-inflationary way,” he added.

“In other words, not just by pumping a lot of money out into the economy,” he said.

After that, he made the case that economic data aside, the Bank of Canada is also fighting against “inflationary psychology” among consumers and businesses as it tries to bring inflation back down to two per cent.

“This is partly a numbers game. It's partly data driven, but it's also a big psychological game,” he said.

“What the Bank of Canada and the other central banks are trying to do is break that inflationary psychology and to convince businesses and consumers that they're going to be living with a slower economy and a higher interest rate environment for the time to come, so that they adjust their expectations,” he said. “We’re seeing today how serious the Bank of Canada is in that respect.”






CAPITALI$M;APOLOGIST REVEALS PUBLIC SECRET
Opinion: The world will not hit its climate targets. Let's prepare for that inconvenient truth

Opinion by Special to Financial Post • 

Emissions in less developed countries continue to grow rapidly.© Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

By George Fallis

More than 30 years after the countries of the world first came together to fight climate change it is time for a clear-eyed look at where we stand and what lies ahead.

Fully 154 countries signed 1992’s UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and then committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol of 1997, followed by the Paris Accord of 2015, which was updated at Glasgow in 2021. At each stage, countries promised deeper cuts. The agreements recognized that countries should not all have to make the same cuts, however. There would be climate justice. The developed countries would make large cuts in their emissions; the less developed could continue to increase their emissions, allowing them to raise living standards.

Over the past 30 years, developed countries have closed coal-fired electricity plants, levied carbon taxes , established cap-and-trade systems, heavily subsidized alternative sources of electricity and taken many other steps to cut emissions. They have also funded impressive amounts of research into solar and wind as alternative sources of energy . In some regions, wind and solar have become the least expensive source of electricity. The world’s big car companies are making billion-dollar investments to produce batteries and manufacture electric cars , which are now commonplace on the roads.



Why emissions are still rising


After all this political effort and technological innovation, how has the world done in cutting emissions? The inconvenient truth is: not very well at all. Global emissions have continued to rise.

Some developed countries have achieved modest emissions reductions, it’s true, but emissions from the less developed countries continue to grow rapidly. According to the best estimates, Earth’s temperature is now 1.1 degrees C above its average in the late 19th century and looks to be rising.

Today, the goal is to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C. Climate models indicate this will require global emissions — by both developed and less developed countries — to be 50 per cent less than 2020 levels by 2030 and to be net zero by 2050. How likely is it that world emissions will fall by these amounts? The inconvenient truth is that the likelihood is vanishingly small.

Even the developed countries are unlikely to meet their targets. All the political forces that have resisted cuts over the past 30 years will continue to do so. And at budget time, when governments must decide how much money to allocate toward fighting climate change, even sympathetic groups will chime in: What about health care, what about homelessness, what about education, or tax reductions? Many citizens see these as higher priorities than reducing emissions.

As we think about future emissions, the elephant in the room is China . In 1992, as UN action got underway, China was a less developed country and so was not asked to reduce emissions. But it has grown rapidly and is now the world’s second largest economy and a genuine superpower economically, politically and militarily. It is also now — by far — the world’s largest producer of greenhouse gases, emitting more than the developed countries combined. Yet it is still building coal-fired power plants, lots of them, and it has made quite clear that climate policy cannot be at the expense of its economic growth: President Xi Jinping has declared that the pursuit of “common prosperity” should guide future Chinese development.

Heart of the problem

The heart of the problem — in every country — is that people (i.e., you and me), are unwilling to cut emissions if doing so means sacrificing our standard of living. Economic growth is paramount — in both the United States and China. Some climate activists in the West say the problem is capitalism; but the situation is the same under “socialism with Chinese characteristics.”


Technological change cannot save us. The experience of western European countries shows it can help reduce emissions modestly as we continue to grow. But technological change cannot cut emissions 50 per cent by 2030 and to net-zero by 2050 if the world economy continues to grow. To meet these targets, world economic growth would have to stop. We would have to produce and consume less. But — almost universally — we do not want to consume less.

A realistic forecast is that global emissions will not be reduced by enough to keep global warming below two degrees C and that damage from extreme weather and rising oceans will increase. On the other hand, even if we do overshoot two degrees C, the world will neither burst into fire nor be submerged under sea water. Except in relatively small areas our planet will still be inhabitable.

But there is a final inconvenient truth: the fight against climate change will not just be about reducing emissions, it will also be about adapting the world’s buildings, infrastructure and agriculture to the changing climate. Both emission cuts and adaptation will continue to cost billions and billions of dollars.


George Fallis is professor emeritus, economics and social science, York University.


 


Greenhouse gas emissions at ‘an all-time high’ - and it is causing an unprecedented rate of global warming, say scientists


Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS

University of Leeds Press Release  

Greenhouse gas emissions at ‘an all-time high’ - and it is causing an unprecedented rate of global warming, say scientists  

  • Human-induced warming averaged 1.14°C over the last decade  

  • A record level of greenhouse gases is being emitted each year, equivalent to 54 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide 

  • The remaining carbon budget - how much carbon dioxide can be emitted to have a better than 50% chance of holding global warming to 1.5°C - has halved over three years  

  • Leading scientists have today launched a project to update key climate indicators every year, so people can be kept informed about critical aspects of global warming  

Human-caused global warming has continued to increase at an “unprecedented rate” since the last major assessment of the climate system published two years ago, say 50 leading scientists.   

One of the researchers said the analysis was a “timely wake-up call” that the pace and scale of climate action has been insufficient, and it comes as climate experts meet in Bonn to prepare the ground for the major COP28 climate conference in the UAE in December, which will include a stocktake of progress towards keeping global warming to 1.5°C by 2050.   

Given the speed at which the global climate system is changing, the scientists argue that policymakers, climate negotiators and civil society groups need to have access to up-to-date and robust scientific evidence on which to base decisions.   

The authoritative source of scientific information on the state of the climate is the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) but the turnaround time for its major assessments is five or ten years, and that creates an “information gap”, particularly when climate indicators are changing rapidly.  

In an initiative being led by the University of Leeds, the scientists have developed an open data, open science platform - the Indicators of Global Climate Change and website (https://igcc.earth/. It will update information on key climate indicators every year.  

Critical decade for climate change 

The Indicators of Global Climate Change Project is being co-ordinated by Professor Piers Forster, Director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at Leeds. He said: “This is the critical decade for climate change.   

 “Decisions made now will have an impact on how much temperatures will rise and the degree and severity of impacts we will see as a result.   

“Long-term warming rates are currently at a long-term high, caused by highest-ever levels of greenhouse gas emissions. But there is evidence that the rate of increase in greenhouse gas emissions has slowed. 

“We need to be nimble footed in the face of climate change. We need to change policy and approaches in the light of the latest evidence about the state of the climate system. Time is no longer on our side. Access to up-to-date information is vitally important.” 

Writing in the journal Earth System Science Data, the scientists have revealed how key indicators have changed since the publication of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Working Group 1 report in 2021- which produced the key data that fed into the subsequent IPCC Sixth Synthesis Report. 

What the updated indicators show  

Human-induced warming, largely caused by the burning of fossil fuels, reached an average of 1.14°C for the most recent decade (2013 to 2022) above pre-industrial levels. This is up from 1.07°C between 2010 and 2019.  

Human-induced warming is now increasing at a pace of over 0.2°C per decade.  

The analysis also found that greenhouse gas emissions were “at an all-time high”, with human activity resulting in the equivalent of 54 (+/-5.3) gigatonnes (or billion metric tonnes) of carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere on average every year over the last decade (2012-2021).  

There has been positive move away from burning coal, yet this has come at a short-term cost in that it has added to global warming by reducing particulate pollution in the air, which has a cooling effect.   

‘Indicators critical to address climate crisis’ 

Professor Maisa Rojas Corradi, Minister of the Environment in Chile, IPCC author and a scientist involved in this study, said: “An annual update of key indicators of global change is critical in helping the international community and countries to keep the urgency of addressing the climate crisis at the top of the agenda and for evidence-based decision-making. 

“In line with the “ratchet-mechanism” of increasing ambition envisioned by the Paris Agreement we need scientific information about emissions, concentration, and temperature as often as possible to keep international climate negotiations up to date and to be able to adjust and if necessary correct national policies.  

“In the case of Chile, we have a climate change law that aims at aligning government-wide policies with climate action.” 

Remaining carbon budget  

One of the major findings of the analysis is the rate of decline in what is known as the remaining carbon budget, an estimate of how much carbon that can be released into the atmosphere to give a 50% chance of keeping global temperature rise within 1.5°C.   

In 2020, the IPCC calculated the remaining carbon budget was around 500 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. By the start of 2023, the figure was roughly half that at around 250 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide.   

The reduction in the estimated remaining carbon budget is due to a combination of continued emissions since 2020 and updated estimates of human-induced warming.   

Professor Forster said: “Even though we are not yet at 1.5°C warming, the carbon budget will likely be exhausted in only a few years as we have a triple whammy of heating from very high CO2 emissions, heating from increases in other GHG emissions and heating from reductions in pollution.  

“If we don’t want to see the 1.5°C goal disappearing in our rearview mirror, the world must work much harder and urgently at bringing emissions down. 

“Our aim is for this project to help the key players urgently make that important work happen with up-to-date and timely data at their fingertips.”   

Dr Valérie Masson-Delmotte, from the Université Paris Saclay who co-chaired Working Group 1 of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment report and was involved in the climate indicators project, said: “This robust update shows intensifying heating of our climate driven by human activities. It is a timely wake up call for the 2023 global stocktake of the Paris Agreement - the pace and scale of climate action is not sufficient to limit the escalation of climate-related risks.” 

As recent IPCC reports have conclusively shown, with every further increment of global warming, the frequency and intensity of climate extremes, including hot extremes, heavy rainfall and agricultural droughts, increases.  

The Indicators of Global Climate Change (https://igcc.earth/) will have annually updated information on greenhouse gas emissions, human-induced global warming and the remaining carbon budget.   

The website extends a successful climate dashboard called the Climate Change Tracker which was created by software developers who took ideas from the finance industry on how to present complex information to the public.   

What the analysis revealed 

Climate Indicator  

Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)  

Latest value  

Greenhouse gas emissions (decadal average)  

53 GtCO2e (2010-2019)  

54 Gt CO2e (2012-2021)  

Human-induced warming since preindustrial times  

1.07°C  

1.14°C  

Remaining carbon budget (1.5C, 50% chance)  

500 GtCO2  

About 250 GtCO2 and very uncertain  

Headline results from the paper Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: Annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and the human influence.  “AR6” refers to approximately 2019 and “Now” refers to 2022.  The AR6 period decadal average greenhouse gas emissions are our re-evaluated assessment for 2010-2019. 

END