Campi Flegrei volcano edges closer to possible eruption

by University College London

Credit: Unsplash/CC0 Public Domain

The Campi Flegrei volcano in southern Italy has become weaker and more prone to rupturing, making an eruption more likely, according to a new study by researchers at UCL (University College London) and Italy's National Research Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV).

The volcano, which last erupted in 1538, has been restless for more than 70 years, with two-year spikes of unrest in the 1950s, 1970s and 1980s, and a slower phase of unrest over the last decade. Tens of thousands of small earthquakes have occurred during these periods and the coastal town of Pozzuoli has been lifted by nearly 4 m (13 ft), roughly the height of a double-decker bus.

The new study, published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, used a model of volcano fracturing, developed at UCL, to interpret the patterns of earthquakes and ground uplift, and concluded that parts of the volcano had been stretched nearly to breaking point.

Lead author Professor Christopher Kilburn (UCL Earth Sciences) said, "Our new study confirms that Campi Flegrei is moving closer to rupture. However, this does not mean an eruption is guaranteed. The rupture may open a crack through the crust, but the magma still needs to be pushing up at the right location for an eruption to occur."

"This is the first time we have applied our model, which is based on the physics of how rocks break, in real-time to any volcano."

"Our first use of the model was in 2017 and since then Campi Flegrei has behaved as we predicted, with an increasing number of small earthquakes indicating pressure from below."

"We will now have to adjust our procedures for estimating the chances of new routes being opened for magma or gas to reach the surface."

"The study is the first of its kind to forecast rupture at an active volcano. It marks a step change in our goal to improve forecasts of eruptions worldwide."

Dr. Nicola Alessandro Pino from the Vesuvius Observatory, which represents the INGV in Naples, said, "Our results show that parts of the volcano are becoming weaker. This means that it might break even though the stresses pulling it apart are smaller than they were during the last crisis 40 years ago."

Campi Flegrei is the closest active volcano to London. It is not an obvious volcano because, instead of growing into a traditional mountain, it has the shape of a gentle depression 12-14 km (7.5-8.5 miles) across (and thus is known as a caldera). This explains why 360,000 people now live on its roof.

For the past decade, the ground below Pozzuoli has been creeping upwards at about 10 cm (4 in) a year. Persistent small earthquakes have also been registered for the first time since the mid-1980s. More than 600 were recorded in April, the largest monthly number so far.

The disturbance has been caused by the movement of fluids about 3 km (2 miles) beneath the surface. Some of the fluids may be molten rock, or magma, and some may be natural volcanic gas. The latest phase of unrest appears likely to be caused by magmatic gas that is seeping into gaps in the rock, filling the 3 km-thick crust like a sponge.

The earthquakes occur when faults (cracks) slip due to the stretching of the crust. The pattern of earthquakes from 2020 suggests the rock is responding in an inelastic way, by breaking rather than bending.

Dr. Stefania Danesi from INGV Bologna said, "We cannot see what is happening underground. Instead we have to decipher the clues the volcano gives us, such as earthquakes and uplift of the ground."

In their paper, the team explained that the effect of the unrest since the 1950s is cumulative, meaning an eventual eruption could be preceded by relatively weak signals such as a smaller rate of ground uplift and fewer earthquakes. This was the case for the eruption of the Rabaul caldera in Papua New Guinea in 1994, which was preceded by small earthquakes occurring at a tenth of the rate than had occurred during a crisis a decade earlier.

Campi Flegrei's current tensile strength (the maximum stress a material can bear before breaking when it is stretched) is likely to be about a third of what it was in 1984, the researchers said.

The team emphasized that an eruption was not inevitable. Dr. Stefano Carlino from the Vesuvius Observatory explained, "It's the same for all volcanoes that have been quiet for generations. Campi Flegrei may settle into a new routine of gently rising and subsiding, as seen at similar volcanoes around the world, or simply return to rest. We can't yet say for sure what will happen. The important point is to be prepared for all outcomes."

Professor Kilburn and colleagues will now apply the UCL model of volcano fracturing to other volcanoes that have reawakened after a long period of time, seeking to establish more reliable criteria for deciding if an eruption is likely. Currently, eruptions are forecast using statistical data unique to each volcano, rather than drawing on fundamental principles that can be applied to multiple volcanoes.

More information: Potential for rupture before eruption at Campi Flegrei caldera, Southern Italy, Communications Earth & Environment (2023). DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-00842-1

Journal information: Communications Earth & Environment 

Provided by University College London 

Campi Flegrei volcano eruption possibly closer than thought

Global Volcanism Program | Campi Flegrei (si.edu)

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE   9-Jun-2023

Italy’s Campi Flegrei Supervolcano Edges Closer to Possible Eruption – Last Erupted in 1538

By UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON (UCL) JUNE 9, 2023

A new study suggests that the Campi Flegrei volcano in southern Italy has become weaker and more likely to erupt. The volcano, which last erupted in 1538, has been restless for over 70 years, with significant unrest and thousands of minor earthquakes over the decades. The recent research applied a unique model of volcano fracturing, interpreting patterns of earthquakes and ground uplift and concluding that parts of the volcano have been stretched nearly to breaking point. (Artist’s illustration of an eruption.)

According to new research, the Campi Flegrei supervolcano in southern Italy has become weaker, making it more likely to erupt. Using a unique model to interpret patterns of earthquakes and ground uplift, the study found parts of the volcano have been stretched nearly to the breaking point. However, an eruption is not guaranteed, and more research is necessary for accurate predictions.

The Campi Flegrei volcano in southern Italy has become weaker and more prone to rupturing, making an eruption more likely, according to a new study by researchers at UCL (University College London) and Italy’s National Research Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV).

The volcano, which last erupted in 1538, has been restless for more than 70 years, with two-year spikes of unrest in the 1950s, 1970s, and 1980s, and a slower phase of unrest over the last decade. Tens of thousands of small earthquakes have occurred during these periods and the coastal town of Pozzuoli has been lifted by nearly 4 m (13 ft), roughly the height of a double-decker bus.

The new study, published today (June 9) in Nature’s Communications Earth & Environment journal, used a model of volcano fracturing, developed at UCL, to interpret the patterns of earthquakes and ground uplift, and concluded that parts of the volcano had been stretched nearly to breaking point.

Campi Flegrei, also known as the Phlegraean Fields, is a large volcanic area situated to the west of Naples, Italy. It’s considered a supervolcano due to the nature and history of its eruptions and its large caldera system. This caldera was formed 39,000 years ago in an eruption that was one of the largest in the history of Europe. Its eruption ejected so much material that it led to a volcanic winter, drastically affecting life across the planet.

Lead author Professor Christopher Kilburn (UCL Earth Sciences) said: “Our new study confirms that Campi Flegrei is moving closer to rupture. However, this does not mean an eruption is guaranteed. The rupture may open a crack through the crust, but the magma still needs to be pushing up at the right location for an eruption to occur.

“This is the first time we have applied our model, which is based on the physics of how rocks break, in real-time to any volcano.

“Our first use of the model was in 2017 and since then Campi Flegrei has behaved as we predicted, with an increasing number of small earthquakes indicating pressure from below.

“We will now have to adjust our procedures for estimating the chances of new routes being opened for magma or gas to reach the surface.

“The study is the first of its kind to forecast rupture at an active volcano. It marks a step change in our goal to improve forecasts of eruptions worldwide.”

Dr. Nicola Alessandro Pino from the Vesuvius Observatory, which represents the INGV in Naples, said: “Our results show that parts of the volcano are becoming weaker. This means that it might break even though the stresses pulling it apart are smaller than they were during the last crisis 40 years ago.”

A supervolcano refers to a volcano that has had an eruption of magnitude 8 on the Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI), meaning that it’s capable of erupting more than 1,000 cubic kilometers (240 cubic miles) of material. Supervolcanoes can produce devastation on a nearly unimaginable scale, and such eruptions could result in severe changes in the global climate.

Campi Flegrei is the closest active volcano to London. It is not an obvious volcano because, instead of growing into a traditional mountain, it has the shape of a gentle depression 12-14 km (7.5-8.5 miles) across (and thus is known as a caldera). This explains why 360,000 people now live on its roof.

For the past decade, the ground below Pozzuoli has been creeping upwards at about 10 cm (4 in) a year. Persistent small earthquakes have also been registered for the first time since the mid-1980s. More than 600 were recorded in April, the largest monthly number so far.

The disturbance has been caused by the movement of fluids about 3 km (2 miles) beneath the surface. Some of the fluids may be molten rock, or magma, and some may be natural volcanic gas. The latest phase of unrest appears likely to be caused by magmatic gas that is seeping into gaps in the rock, filling the 3 km-thick crust like a sponge.

The earthquakes occur when faults (cracks) slip due to the stretching of the crust. The pattern of earthquakes from 2020 suggests the rock is responding in an inelastic way, by breaking rather than bending.

Dr. Stefania Danesi from INGV Bologna said: “We cannot see what is happening underground. Instead, we have to decipher the clues the volcano gives us, such as earthquakes and uplift of the ground.”

In their paper, the team explained that the effect of the unrest since the 1950s is cumulative, meaning an eventual eruption could be preceded by relatively weak signals such as a smaller rate of ground uplift and fewer earthquakes. This was the case for the eruption of the Rabaul caldera in Papua New Guinea in 1994, which was preceded by small earthquakes occurring at a tenth of the rate than had occurred during a crisis a decade earlier.

Campi Flegrei’s current tensile strength (the maximum stress a material can bear before breaking when it is stretched) is likely to be about a third of what it was in 1984, the researchers said.

The team emphasized that an eruption was not inevitable. Dr. Stefano Carlino from the Vesuvius Observatory explained: “It’s the same for all volcanoes that have been quiet for generations. Campi Flegrei may settle into a new routine of gently rising and subsiding, as seen at similar volcanoes around the world, or simply return to rest. We can’t yet say for sure what will happen. The important point is to be prepared for all outcomes.”

Professor Kilburn and colleagues will now apply the UCL model of volcano fracturing to other volcanoes that have reawakened after a long period of time, seeking to establish more reliable criteria for deciding if an eruption is likely. Currently, eruptions are forecast using statistical data unique to each volcano, rather than drawing on fundamental principles that can be applied to multiple volcanoes.

Reference: “Potential for rupture before eruption at Campi Flegrei caldera, Southern Italy” by 9 June 2023, Communications Earth & Environment.
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-00842-1

The first prehistoric wind instruments discovered in the Levant

Peer-Reviewed Publication

CNRS

 

IMAGE: THE SEVEN AEROPHONES DISCOVERED AT EYNAN-MALLAHA view more 

CREDIT: © LAURENT DAVIN

Although the prehistoric site of Eynan-Mallaha in northern Israel has been thoroughly examined since 1955, it still holds some surprises for scientists. Seven prehistoric wind instruments known as flutes, recently identified by a Franco-Israeli team1, are the subject of an article published on 9 June in Nature Scientific Reports. The discovery of these 12,000 -year-old aerophones is extremely rare – in fact, they are the first to be discovered in the Near East. The “flutes”, made from the bones of a small waterfowl, produce a sound similar to certain birds of prey (Eurasian sparrowhawk and common kestrel) when air is blown into them. The choice of bones used to make these instruments was no accident – larger birds, with bigger bones that produce deeper sounds, have also been found at the site. The Natufians, the Near Eastern civilisation that occupied this village between 13,000 and 9,700 BC, deliberately selected smaller bones in order to obtain the high-pitched sound needed to imitate these particular raptors. The instruments may have been used for hunting, music or to communicate with the birds themselves. Indeed, it is clear that the Natufians attributed birds with a special symbolic value, as attested by the many ornaments made of talons found at Eynan-Mallaha. The village, located on the shores of Lake Hula, was home to this civilisation throughout its 3,000 years of existence. It is therefore of vital importance in revealing the practices and habits of a culture at the crossroads between mobile and sedentary lifestyles, and the transition from a predatory economy to agriculture. This work2 was supported by the Fyssen Fondation and the ministère des Affaires étrangères.

 

Notes

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1. The team is co-directed by Laurent Davin (post-doctoral researcher at the Fyssen Fondation) and José-Miguel Tejero (University of Vienna, University of Barcelona) and includes scientists from the Centre de recherche français à Jérusalem (CNRS/Aix-Marseille Université/ministère de la Culture), the laboratoire Technologie et ethnologie des mondes préhistoriques (CNRS/Université Panthéon-Sorbonne/Université Paris Nanterre), The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (Institute of Archaeology), Israel Antiquities Authority, Virginia Commonwealth University (Department of Forensic Science), École Nationale Vétérinaire (Laboratoire d’Anatomie comparée, Nantes), the laboratoire Archéologies et sciences de l’Antiquité (CNRS/ministère de la Culture/Université Panthéon-Sorbonne/Université Paris Nanterre) and the l’Institut d’ethnologie méditerranéenne, européenne et comparative (CNRS/Université Aix-Marseille).
2. Excavation of the Eynan-Mallaha site is still ongoing, under the direction of CNRS researcher Fanny Bocquentin and Israel Antiquities Authority researcher Lior Weisbrod.

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JOURNAL

Scientific Reports

DOI

10.1038/s41598-023-35700-9 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Experimental study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

The first prehistoric wind instruments discovered in the Levant

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

9-Jun-2023

VCU forensic science professor Tal Simmons, team discover 12,000-year-old flutes made from bird bones

Found in northern Israel, they are the first prehistoric sound instruments identified from the Near East – and the oldest imitating a bird call from any ancient civilization.

Peer-Reviewed Publication

VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH UNIVERSITY

A team of researchers, including a Virginia Commonwealth University professor, has discovered rare prehistoric instruments made from the bones of birds dating back more than 12,000 years, according to findings published Friday in the journal Scientific Reports.

The seven flutes, or aerophones, found at the Eynan-Mallaha site in northern Israel belonged to the Natufians, who lived between 13000 B.C. and 9700 B.C. and were some of the last hunter-gatherers known in the Levant, or Near East region, during that time.

Tal Simmons, Ph.D., a professor in the Department of Forensic Science at VCU’s College of Humanities and Sciences and a co-author of the Scientific Reports paper, identified 1,112 bones from 59 species of birds found at the site. Her research guided the team’s understanding of what time of year the nomadic hunter-gatherers occupied the site and what species’ bones were most frequently found there.

“Although bone ‘flutes’ or ‘aerophones’ are known from other archaeological sites elsewhere in the world, they are quite rare and have been found mostly in Europe. These are the first to ever be identified from the Near East and date to circa 12,000 years ago,” Simmons said. “The flutes actually make the sounds of other birds of prey that were hunted at the site.”

The discovery marks the first time a prehistoric sound instrument from the Near East has been identified, and it is the oldest that imitates a bird call from any ancient civilization.

One aerophone is fully intact, complete with finger holes and a mouthpiece. When played, the flute sounds like a raptor call – or, as Simmons said, “a high-pitched ‘screeching’ call, very much like a smaller bird of prey up in the treetops.”

“All seven were intentionally made by grooving and rotational scraping with small stone blades into the long bones of two types of birds – the Eurasian teal and the Eurasian coot. They all show microscopic use-wear indicating they were, in fact, used or played,” Simmons said. “They are also really unique because the sound they produce is very similar to that of two specific birds of prey that were hunted by the people living at the site where they were discovered, namely the kestrel and the sparrowhawk.”

The researchers believe the aerophones may have been used in hunting, in communication or in music-making in spiritual practices.

“Because these are some of the earliest aerophones, it sheds light on the role of music in Natufian culture – and perhaps on the relationship of Natufian peoples with birds of prey,” Simmons said.

“It may have been as a duck call – to try to lure the birds so that they could be hunted. However, it may also have been an attempt to spiritually commune or communicate with these birds of prey; they were important to Natufian – and earlier – cultures in the Levant, as seen in the disproportionate number of raptor talons in archaeological bird-bone assemblages. These may have been worn by the prehistoric people as ritual ‘jewelry’ and may even have been ‘totem’ animals.”

The aerophones currently are in the zoological collections at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem on the Givat Ram campus.

The Scientific Reports paper’s authors include archaeologists, archaeozoologists and ethnomusicologists from three continents: first authors Laurent Davin of The Hebrew University of Jerusalem and José-Miguel Tejero of the University of Vienna, with co-authors Simmons of VCU; Dana Shaham and Rivka Rabinovich of The Hebrew University of Jerusalem; and Aurelia Borvon, Olivier Tourny, Anne Bridault, Marion Sindel, Hamudi Khalaily and François Valla of CNRS (the French National Centre for Scientific Research).

###

 

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JOURNAL

Scientific Reports

ARTICLE TITLE

Bone aerophones from Eynan-Mallaha (Israel) indicate imitation of raptor calls by the last hunter-gatherers in the Levant

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

9-Jun-2023

Children in Chile saw 73% fewer TV ads for unhealthy foods and drinks following trailblazing marketing restrictions

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AT CHAPEL HILL

Chilean policies aimed at reining in unhealthy food marketing are succeeding in protecting children from the onslaught of television advertisements (TV ads) for these products, according to new research. The country’s multi-phased regulations, which began in 2016, have led to a 73% drop in children’s exposure to TV ads for regulated foods and drinks (those that exceed legal thresholds for calories, sugar, salt or saturated fat) by 2019. During this time, the number of ads for unhealthy foods dropped 64% on all TV programs and 77% during children’s programming. Researchers also found that 67% fewer unhealthy food ads used child-directed creative content such as cartoons, characters, toys or contests, which are also prohibited under the country’s laws.

These and other findings from researchers at the University of Chile, Diego Portales University and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill underscore both the potential and need for strict rules around marketing to build healthier eating habits. The study also highlights the importance of a key policy addition contributing to the regulations’ success: The initial Law of Food Labeling and Advertising in 2016 limited child-directed creative content in any marketing and prohibited companies from placing TV ads for regulated products during programs attracting a child audience. In 2018, Chile extended this prohibition to a full “daytime” ban across all TV from 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. While researchers saw a decline in advertising for unhealthy foods during earlier phases of the law (in 2017 and early 2018), the significantly greater drop following the full daytime ban is noteworthy.

“Focusing on child-directed ad content and child-directed programming to reduce children’s exposure to unhealthy food advertising does work to an extent, based on what we’ve seen in Chile, but children are simply exposed to much more than this,” said Francesca Dillman Carpentier, PhD, W. Horace Carter Distinguished Professor at the UNC Hussman School of Journalism and Media and the study’s first author. “To markedly reduce the amount of unhealthy food promotions children view, we see that it takes a bold move like Chile’s 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. ban to be effective. The number of unhealthy food ads on TV, as well as kids’ exposure to them, was greatly reduced after Chile added the daytime ban on these ads.”

This study’s findings underscores a weakness of nearly all governmental restrictions on TV advertising for unhealthy foods worldwide: Most focus on very narrow windows of time or programming, leaving children exposed most of the day and night to targeted ads for unhealthy foods and drinks. (See below.) This study provides evidence that countries could significantly strengthen existing policies by expanding TV restrictions to complete bans. Countries considering introducing policies to regulate food marketing can also learn from the Chilean experience to protect children more effectively from ad exposure.

Chile enacted marketing controls in 2016 as part of an ambitious, comprehensive policy package aimed at reducing childhood obesity and other health risks by creating a healthier food environment. The Law of Food Labeling and Advertising also mandated “stop sign” warning labels on packages for unhealthy foods and banned their sale or promotion in schools. This remains one of the most ambitious regulatory frameworks in the world aimed at tackling rising nutrition-related diseases and soaring health care costs, and many policymakers and public health advocates worldwide have been watching to gauge the policy package’s effectiveness.

Other studies evaluating the combined effects of Chile’s marketing restrictions, warning labels and school ban have yielded similarly promising results: A study of household grocery purchases found a 24% drop in calories purchased in the first year (during the most lax period of the law’s three-phased nutritional criteria) and a 37% reduction in sodium purchased. Focus groups indicate that parents are being encouraged by their children to avoid buying foods with warning labels. Students reduced their sugar, saturated fat and sodium intake in schools — albeit with some evidence of compensation outside of school settings. And marketing restrictions also led to the removal of child-directed marketing strategies from nearly 50% of breakfast cereals to just 15% in the first year of the law.

“The Chilean experience has shown us that rigorous food marketing regulations work to reduce kids’ exposure to TV food advertising,” said co-author Lindsey Smith Taillie, PhD, associate professor and associate chair of academics in the Department of Nutrition at UNC-Chapel Hill’s Gillings Global School of Public Health.

“Looking to the future, we need to figure out how to monitor and regulate the digital food marketing environment, as kids increasingly shift their attention to smartphones and other online content.”

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JOURNAL

International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity

DOI

10.1186/s12966-023-01454-w 

ARTICLE TITLE

Restricting child-directed ads is effective, but adding a time-based ban is better: evaluating a multi-phase regulation to protect children from unhealthy food marketing on television

Lingering effects of Neanderthal DNA found in modern humans

Peer-Reviewed Publication

CORNELL UNIVERSITY

Recent scientific discoveries have shown that Neanderthal genes comprise some 1 to 4% of the genome of present-day humans whose ancestors migrated out of Africa, but the question remained open on how much those genes are still actively influencing human traits — until now.

A multi-institution research team including Cornell University has developed a new suite of computational genetic tools to address the genetic effects of interbreeding between humans of non-African ancestry and Neanderthals that took place some 50,000 years ago. (The study applies only to descendants of those who migrated from Africa before Neanderthals died out, and in particular, those of European ancestry.)

In a study published in eLife, the researchers reported that some Neanderthal genes are responsible for certain traits in modern humans, including several with a significant influence on the immune system. Overall, however, the study shows that modern human genes are winning out over successive generations. 

“Interestingly, we found that several of the identified genes involved in modern human immune, metabolic and developmental systems might have influenced human evolution after the ancestors’ migration out of Africa,” said study co-lead author April (Xinzhu) Wei, an assistant professor of computational biology in the College of Arts and Sciences. “We have made our custom software available for free download and use by anyone interested in further research.”

Using a vast dataset from the UK Biobank consisting of genetic and trait information of nearly 300,000 Brits of non-African ancestry, the researchers analyzed more than 235,000 genetic variants likely to have originated from Neanderthals. They found that 4,303 of those differences in DNA are playing a substantial role in modern humans and influencing 47 distinct genetic traits, such as how fast someone can burn calories or a person’s natural immune resistance to certain diseases.

Unlike previous studies that could not fully exclude genes from modern human variants, the new study leveraged more precise statistical methods to focus on the variants attributable to Neanderthal genes.

While the study used a dataset of almost exclusively white individuals living in the United Kingdom, the new computational methods developed by the team could offer a path forward in gleaning evolutionary insights from other large databases to delve deeper into archaic humans’ genetic influences on modern humans. 

“For scientists studying human evolution interested in understanding how interbreeding with archaic humans tens of thousands of years ago still shapes the biology of many present-day humans, this study can fill in some of those blanks,” said senior investigator Sriram Sankararaman, an associate professor at the University of California, Los Angeles. “More broadly, our findings can also provide new insights for evolutionary biologists looking at how the echoes of these types of events may have both beneficial and detrimental consequences.”

The other co-lead author on the study is Christopher Robles, postdoctoral researcher at UCLA. Additional authors are UCLA doctoral student Ali Pazokitoroudi; Andrea Ganna of Massachusetts General Hospital and the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard; Alexander Gusev and Arun Durvasula of Harvard Medical School; Steven Gazal of USC; Po-Ru Loh of the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard; and David Reich of Harvard University. 

The research was supported by grants from the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation, with additional funding from an Alfred P Sloan Research Fellowship and a gift from the Okawa Foundation. Other authors received funding support from the Paul G. Allen Frontiers Group, the John Templeton Foundation, the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, the Burroughs Wellcome Fund and the Next Generation Fund at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard.

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JOURNAL

eLife

DOI

10.7554/eLife.80757 

Why certain fish are left off the hook

New study finds that rhetoric about ‘underfishing’ in US waters may be misguided

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE

 

IMAGE: A NEW STUDY LED BY THE UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE’S KIMBERLY OREMUS FOUND THAT WHILE THE MAGNUSON-STEVENS ACT — WHICH WAS MODERNIZED IN 1996 TO FOSTER THE LONG-TERM BIOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY OF MARINE FISHERIES — IS SOMETIMES BLAMED FOR BEING TOO STRINGENT, LEADING TO WHAT SOME POLITICIANS CALL "UNDERFISHING," THE ACT IS NOT CONSTRAINING MOST FISHERIES, AND THERE ARE VARIOUS OTHER REASONS THAT LEAD TO CERTAIN FISH SPECIES BEING LESS FISHED. view more 

CREDIT: UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE

As warming waters threaten fish populations and disrupt fisheries around the world, it is critical to find ways to sustain fisheries while at the same time allowing those fisheries to remain economically viable to those who depend on them for their livelihoods. In the United States, commercial fishing employs 1.2 million Americans and generates more than $165 billion annually. 

The primary way that the United States has protected its fisheries is through the Magnuson-Stevens Act, which was modernized in 1996 to foster the long-term biological and economic sustainability of marine fisheries. However, the reauthorization of this act has been stalled in Congress for a decade, as some politicians blame the law for being too stringent, leading to what they call
"underfishing."

The University of Delaware’s Kimberly Oremus recently served as a lead author on a paper published in Science that examined U.S. fishing policy. The paper found that the Magnuson-Stevens Act is not constraining most fisheries, and that there are various other reasons that lead to certain fish species being less fished. 

Oremus, assistant professor in the School of Marine Science and Policy, and Eyal Frank, an assistant professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, served as the lead authors on the paper. 

The researchers examined two decades of data on 170 U.S. fish stocks. These 170 managed fish stocks represent 85% of the U.S. marine commercial fish landings. 

In the study, Oremus, Frank, and their other co-authors examined the assertion of critics of U.S. fishing law that it is too stringent and unnecessarily leaves too many fish in the water. 

They found that the main reason about half of the fish stocks in the U.S. are considered "underfished" is due to pure economics — fishers are not harvesting the fish because there is not enough demand for them.

Just four fish species — the Eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock, Atlantic sea scallop, Gulf of Mexico brown shrimp and Gulf of Mexico white shrimp — make up the majority of the revenue of those stocks that the researchers characterized as potentially less utilized and fished. Of those, the majority of the revenue came from just one species: the walleye pollock, the catch of which is not constrained by the Magnuson-Stevens Act.

Other, healthy fish stocks are being left in the water because they could not be profitably caught without also catching other fish species that are depleted. 

“Some healthy stocks are constrained by the Magnuson-Stevens Act because they are often caught with other stocks that are depleted,” Oremus said. “Some stocks are constrained by other laws such as the Marine Mammal Protection Act or the Pacific Halibut Treaty with Canada. Some stocks are constrained by both market forces and policies, such as our Gulf of Mexico shrimp stocks that are struggling to compete with the price of imported shrimp coming from less regulated countries.”  

While political rhetoric has focused on laws that protect fisheries — such as the Magnuson-Stevens Act — as the main culprit in underfishing, the researchers said it is important to take a nuanced view of the picture and view fisheries on a case-by-case basis. 

“Targeting the Magnuson-Stevens Act will not change some of these outcomes,” Frank said. “It is important to understand the multitude of factors involved. Simply relaxing fishery management targets under the law will most likely fail to increase utilization in many of the marine fisheries that appear to be underutilized at face value.”

With changes to the environment and overfishing still a big concern in other parts of the world, it is critical to have science-based fisheries laws in place in order to sustain fish stocks moving forward, Oremus said. 

“On average, we find that less fished stocks were less fished six years before the law was passed in 1996, and their share of revenue has remained steady from 1990-2015,” Oremus said. “Though no law is perfect, the law appears to be attempting to balance the needs of fishers, other stakeholders, and the long-term conservation of the resource.”

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JOURNAL

Science

DOI

10.1126/science.adf5595 

For pet dogs, ‘running with the pack’ may be the best prevention to promote healthier living

Dog Aging Project survey of 21,000 dogs reveals more social support tied to healthier outcomes

Peer-Reviewed Publication

ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY

 

IMAGE: THE DOG AGING PROJECT AIMS TO BETTER UNDERSTAND HEALTHIER AGING FOR PEOPLE’S BELOVED CANINE COMPANIONS. MORE THAN 45,000 DOGS OF ALL BREEDS AND SIZES HAVE ENROLLED IN THE STUDY. view more 

CREDIT: DOG AGING PROJECT, UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON

What exactly makes for a fit Fido? And how does a dog’s environment factor into their dog years?

 

“People love their dogs,” said ASU School of Life Sciences assistant professor Noah Snyder-Mackler.  “But what people may not know, is that this love and care, combined with their relatively shorter lifespans, make our companion dogs a great model for studying how and when aspects of the social and physical environment may alter aging, health and survival.”

 

Now, the largest survey and data compilation of its kind--- from more than 21,000 dog owners--- has revealed the social determinants that may be tied to healthier aging for people’s beloved canine companions. Among them, a measurement of the amount of a dog’s social support network proved to have the greatest influence and association on better health outcomes–5 times the effect of financial factors, household stability or the age of the owner.

 

Led by Snyder-Mackler, PhD student Bri McCoy, and MSc student Layla Brassington, they carried out a comprehensive analysis of a detailed survey of dog owners, which totaled a breathtaking number, 21,410 dogs. The study attempted to find key social aspects for healthy lifestyles to help explore the science behind dog years in a large, community-science endeavor called the Dog Aging Project. The Dog Aging Project is a partnership led by the University of Washington and Texas A&M schools of medicine that includes more than a dozen member institutions–including ASU–around the nation.

 

The main goal of the Dog Aging Project is to understand how genes, lifestyle, and the environment influence aging and disease outcomes. More than 45,000 dogs are now enrolled in the project across the U.S.

 

“This study illustrates the incredibly broad reach of the Dog Aging Project,” said Daniel Promislow, project co-director and principal investigator. “Here, we see how dogs can help us to better understand how the environment around us influences health, and the many ways in which dogs mirror the human experience. Just as with people, dogs in lower resource environments are more likely to have health challenges. Thanks to the richness of the data the Dog Aging Project is collecting, follow-up studies will have the potential to help us understand how and why environmental factors affect health in dogs.”

 

McCoy, Brassington, Snyder-Mackler, and team drew on a large survey that asked each owner questions about themselves and their pup: ranging from physical activity, environment, dog behavior, diet, medications and preventatives, health status, and owner demographics. Using these questions, they identified 5 key factors (neighborhood stability, total household income, social time with children, social time with animals, and owner age) that together, helped explained the makeup of a dog's social environment and were associated with dog wellbeing.

 

They found that the dog’s lived and built environment predicted their health, disease diagnoses, and physical mobility–even after controlling for the dog’s age and weight. More specifically: Financial and household adversity was linked to poorer health and reduced physical mobility, while ore social companionship, such as living with other dogs, was associated with better health. These effects of each environmental component were not equal: the effect of social support was 5 times stronger than financial factors.

 

“This does show that, like many social animals–including humans, having more social companions can be really important for the dog’s health,” said ASU graduate student McCoy.

 

Among the more surprising results were: 1) a negative association of the number of children in the household and dog health, and 2) that dogs from higher income households were diagnosed with more diseases.

 

“We found that time with children actually had a detrimental effect on dog health,” said Brassington. “The more children or time that owners dedicate to their children, likely leads to less time with their furry children.”

 

“You can think of it as a resource allocation issue, rather than kids being bad for dogs,” said McCoy.

 

The second counterintuitive finding points to the role that finance plays in the opportunities for disease diagnosis. Dogs from wealthier households have better access to medical care, leading inadvertantly to more disease diagnosis. Because the dogs who live in households with wealthier owners might seek veterinary care more frequently, and their owners have the funds to pay for additional tests, this leads to more diseases identified.

 

Their results remained largely consistent when accounting for health and diseases differences between pure and mixed breed dogs, as well as among specific breeds.

 

One important caveat and cautionary note on the data is due to the nature of surveys. Since these are owner-reported, there may be some error, bias, and/or misinterpretation of survey questions.

 

Their next steps will begin to explore if there are any links between the survey and underlying physiology.

“We now want to understand how these external factors are getting under the skin to affect the dog’s health–how is the environment altering their bodies and cells?,” said Snyder-Mackler.

 

A subset of the dogs, about 1,000 are part of a more focused cohort where Snyder-Mackler and his collaborators are collecting blood and other biological samples over many years to uncover these clues.

 

“In future research, we will look at electronic veterinary medical records, molecular and immunological measures, and at-home physical tests to generate more accurate measures of health and frailty in the companion dog,” said Snyder-Mackler.

 

“But the take home message is: Having a good network, having a good social connectedness is good for the dogs that are living with us,” said McCoy. “But the structure and equities that are in our society also have a detrimental effect on our companion animals as well. And they are not the ones thinking about their next paycheck or their health care.”

 

And what is good for dogs may just echo what may be a good prescription for people to live healthier lives.

“Overall, our study provides further evidence for the strong link between the social environment and health outcomes that reflects what is known for humans,” said Snyder-Mackler.  “We need to focus more attention to the role of the social environment on health and disease, and continued investigation of how each environmental factor can contribute to more years of healthy living (i.e., “healthspan”) in both companion dogs and humans.”

 

The study was published in the advanced online early edition of the journal Evolution, Medicine & Public Health.

Arizona State University School of Life Sciences MSc student Layla Brassington (left) and PhD student Bri McCoy (right), helped carry out a comprehensive analysis of a detailed survey of dog owners, which totaled a breathtaking number, 21,410 dogs. The study attempted to find key social aspects for healthy lifestyles to help explore the science behind dog years in a large, community-science endeavor called the Dog Aging Project.

CREDIT

Dr. Noah Snyder-Mackler, ASU School of Life Sciences

JOURNAL

Evolution Medicine and Public Health

DOI

10.1093/emph/eoad011/7161464 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Survey

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Animals

ARTICLE TITLE

Social determinants of health and disease in companion dogs: A cohort study from the Dog Aging Project