Bank of Canada may need to raise rates again, despite this week's hold: Macklem

Nojoud Al Mallees, The Canadian Press

The Bank of Canada may have to raise interest rates further, given that inflation may stay high for some time, said governor Tiff Macklem Thursday.

His speech at the Calgary Chamber of Commerce came one day after the central bank decided to hold its key interest rate steady at five per cent as signs of an economic slowdown grow.

Statistics Canada reported last week that the economy shrank in the second quarter, while the unemployment rate has been rising for three consecutive months.

However, Macklem said on Thursday that the central bank’s governing council agreed rates may need to rise again.

“In trying to balance the risks of under- and over-tightening, the governing council decided yesterday to keep the policy rate at five per cent and agreed there may be a need to raise the policy rate further if inflationary pressures persist,” Macklem said.

Canada’s inflation rate was 3.3 per cent in July, but the Bank of Canada expects inflation to flare up in the coming months before declining again.

Macklem also held a news conference Thursday, where he faced questions from reporters about the central bank's political independence in light of comments from elected officials on its policy decisions. 

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland faced some criticism Wednesday for appearing to praise the central bank for holding its key rate, saying in a statement that the decision was "welcome relief for Canadians."

Later that day, the NDP — which has been critical of the rate hikes — went further, suggesting the finance minister should ask the Bank of Canada to stop raising interest rates.

Macklem said elected officials are clearly hearing from constituents about the pain high inflation and rising interest rates are causing. The central bank is hearing the same thing, he said. 

The governor wouldn't comment on what he would do if the finance minister ever issued a directive to the central bank regarding interest rates — something that's never happened in the Bank of Canada's history but is within the powers of the minister.

"I think the deputy prime minister has been very clear that she fully respects the independence of the Bank of Canada," Macklem told reporters.

As the central bank focuses on its task of wrestling inflation back down to two per cent, the governor spent a considerable amount of time in his speech defending the central bank's inflation target. Although inflation may seem close to two per cent, he said, reaching two per cent is crucial to maintaining predictability and stability in the economy.

The governor said the slowing progress on getting inflation down either means previous rate hikes need more time to take effect, or interest rates aren’t high enough yet.

The central bank is looking for evidence that inflation is not only falling, but that large price increases are becoming less common across the economy.

For that to happen, Macklem said demand in the economy needs to continue slowing.

“But I want to be clear – we are not trying to kill economic growth,” Macklem said.

Instead, the governor said the best way the central bank can support the economy is by making sure inflation comes back down to the two per cent target.

When asked whether Canada is already in a recession, Macklem said he doesn't think so. 

As to whether the country is headed for one, Macklem said Canada may experience two consecutive slightly negative quarters of growth, which would meet the technical definition of a recession. 

"I don't think a couple of very small negatives are what most people think of when they think of a recession. It's not a big contraction in output. It's not a large rise in unemployment," he said. 

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 7, 2023.

 

Premiers, finance minister welcome Bank of Canada's interest rate hold

Ben Cousins, BNN Bloomberg

Canadian politicians welcomed the Bank of Canada’s decision to hold interest rates, though one economist was skeptical that calls for a rate pause from a handful of premiers across the political spectrum had a real impact on the policy move.

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada Governor held its benchmark rate at five per cent, as the bank works towards its goal of bringing inflation down to two per cent. 

The rate hold, which was in line with most economists’ expectations, came after premiers of three provinces made the unusual decision to call for a pause to interest rate hikes, which they argued has been putting a squeeze on their constituents. 

Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Andrew Furey was the third Canadian premier to call for a rate pause, following similar appeals Ontario’s Doug Ford and B.C.’s David Eby – the three politicians representing Liberal, Progressive Conservative and New Democratic governments, respectively.

Furey issued a letter on Tuesday citing the “negative impacts continued interest rate increases are having on Canadians.” 

Speaking to reporters following the Bank of Canada announcement, Furey called the hold “great news for Newfoundlanders and Labradorians.” 

“On the balance of the day-to-day impacts and rightfully pursuing escalating inflation rates, this is the right move in my opinion right now and I applaud the Bank of Canada for their decision,” he said.  

Ford, who had also written to Macklem to ask for a rate pause, called the announcement from the central bank “good” in a Tweet posted Wednesday. Earlier in the week, Ford he had written to Macklem highlighting the “devastating impact” rate hikes have had on people.

Federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland also weighed in on Wednesday, calling the pause “welcome relief.”

“As the Bank continues this work, my number one priority is to use all the tools at my disposal and to work with partners at other levels of government across Canada, to ensure that interest rates can come down as soon as possible,” Freeland wrote in a statement. 

BNNBloomberg.ca has reached out to Eby’s office for comment. The B.C. premier was the first to ask the central bank to hold rates last week, saying that people in his province were “already hurting.” 

POLITICAL THEATRE

David Doyle, head of economics Macquarie, said he doesn’t believe political pressure on the Bank of Canada impacted its policy decision. 

“It doesn’t surprise me to see the political theatre take place. I think that politicians are inclined to grandstand in that way,” he told BNN Bloomberg in a television interview on Wednesday.

“The Bank of Canada remains independent. I don’t think what the premiers or the finance minister are saying will have much effect at all what Governor (Tiff) Macklem is inclined to do.” 

With files from Bloomberg News 

 

Politician appeals to BOC on rate hikes 'unfortunate,' policy prof says

Nojoud Al Mallees, The Canadian Press

Two premiers have sent letters to Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem urging against another rate hike, as the provincial leaders attempt to sway the central bank's interest rate decision slated for Wednesday.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford sent a letter on Sunday saying families and businesses cannot afford the "crushing impact of further rate hikes," echoing a letter British Columbia Premier David Eby sent on Thursday. 

Associate professor and founding director of McGill University's Max Bell School of Public Policy, Christopher Ragan says it's "unfortunate" that the premiers felt that sending these letters was useful. 

"It's pretty easy to find people that will argue that the (central) bank shouldn't raise interest rates anymore," Ragan said.

But having premiers send letters to the governor "invariably brings in a political element" to the debate, he said. 

The Bank of Canada is an independent institution that receives its mandate from the federal government and is responsible for maintaining a two per cent inflation target. 

However, the central bank has been no stranger to political pressure and critiques over the last couple of years as it has navigated a tumultuous economic period marred by a pandemic-induced downturn followed by runaway inflation. 

With inflation still above two per cent, monetary policy expert Jeremy Kronick said the central bank is required to carry out its mandate. 

"They don't control the mandate: the mandate is set by an agreement between them and federal government. And so for them, they have to continue to do what they think is best to get inflation back down to two per cent," said Kronick, who heads financial and monetary policy research at the C.D. Howe Institute. 

The letters from the premiers come as forecasters widely anticipate the central bank to hold its key interest rate steady as the economy begins to buckle under the weight of higher interest rates. 

The Bank of Canada is not commenting on the letters Macklem has received due to a communications 'blackout' period it observes ahead of interest rate announcements.

The central bank has aggressively raised interest rates since March 2022 to clamp down on decades-high inflation, including raises at its last two meetings in June and July in response to a hot economy.

But over the summer, more signs have emerged that the economy is actually slowing down: the unemployment rate has been on the rise and real gross domestic product unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter.

These signs have convinced most forecasters that the central bank will stay on the sidelines this week, holding its key interest rate at 5.0 per cent — the highest it's been since 2001. 

The central bank has faced opposition for its rate hikes from labour groups and some policy thinkers who argue that the suffering the rate hikes will cause workers exceeds the benefits.

Politicians have also weighed in on the Bank of Canada's operations over the last couple of years. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has attacked the Bank of Canada for its policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic and vowed to fire Macklem if his party forms government.

Meanwhile, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has argued the Bank of Canada's approach to inflation is "wrong," calling its key interest rate a "blunt" instrument. 

The political critiques have raised concerns about interference into the Bank of Canada and questions about how elected officials should approach discussing the central bank's policies. 

Ragan said monetary policy shouldn't be protected from the type of criticism other policies face, but history shows that central banks that are not independent from government are more likely to make policy choices that fuel inflation.

Instead of debating its day-to-day operations, Ragan said elected officials should focus on debating what the Bank of Canada's mandate should be. 

The central bank's mandate dictates what the target inflation rate should be, for example, and could stipulate other priorities for the institution.

"I think that is a very important place where government, elected officials get involved. But then once you've established what the mandate is, I think there's a real advantage in just letting the central bank do its job," he said. 

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 5, 2023.

Changes to minimum tax to add $2.6 billion over five years for feds: PBO

The Canadian Pres

The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government's proposed changes to the alternative minimum tax will generate an additional $2.6 billion in revenue over five years.

The tax aims to ensure high-income earners and trusts don't pay disproportionately less in taxes than other taxpayers. 

The Liberal government proposed in the 2023 budget changes to the alternative minimum tax so that the highest income earners pay the greatest share of the revenue generated from the tax.

The changes, which come into effect in January 2024, would increase the minimum tax from 15 per cent to 20.5 per cent.

At the same time, it would increase the amount that is excluded from the calculation from $40,000 to $173,000. 

While the budget watchdog finds the changes will lead to the highest-income earners paying the largest share, it does not find that to be the case with trusts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 7, 2023.

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF FILM FESTS

High-cost resale tickets are new market reality, TIFF CEO says

Indira Kannan, BNN Bloomberg

High inflation is not holding Toronto film buffs back from spending on movie tickets, according to the CEO of the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF), which is set to kick off on Thursday for its 48th year.

“The response has been at least the same as last year if not a little bit higher,” Cameron Bailey said in an interview with BNNBloomberg.ca.

“We haven’t seen a downturn in terms of tickets and our audience’s interest in attending the festival.”

TIFF, which will run until Sept. 17, is regarded as the world’s largest public film festival.

In past years, cheering fans have gathered at screening venues in Toronto’s downtown to catch a glimpse of film stars attending movie premieres and walking red carpets. This year, the Hollywood star quotient will be a little lower due to the ongoing actors’ strike – but that has not affected ticket sales either, says Bailey.

RESALE PRICES BALLOON

Demand is apparently strong enough for tickets to be offered for resale at high prices by scalpers.

Recent social media users and news reports have pointed out that tickets for some screenings have been listed on resale site Stubhub for hundreds of dollars, as well as on Ticketmaster, the site TIFF has been using to sell festival tickets. 

Bailey said this is part of the resale market reality for popular events, whether it is a concert or a film festival screening.

“I think the resale market for anything that has a ticket has become quite well established for concerts, sports events and different things,” he said.

“This is not the first year when resale prices have been higher than the price we’re charging. And it’s just part of the phenomenon of the most in-demand event, whether it’s a football match or a concert by your favourite artist. There’s a market for those things that sometimes will drive up the price.”

This year, TIFF has set prices for regular screenings between $26 and $32, while premium screenings can set you back anywhere between $39 and $88.

All prices are inclusive of taxes and fees. Bailey noted that TIFF is trying to make tickets more affordable for various sections including young film fans and what the festival calls “equity deserving communities.” People under 25 and community partners can access select screenings from $13.

“There’s also a program which is supported by one of our major partners Visa, which offers free access to a number of different community groups to festival films,” Bailey added.

STRIKE IMPACT

The festival has several workarounds in place to blunt the impact from the ongoing strikes by Hollywood writers and actors. The festival has invited independent filmmakers, actors who will be at TIFF in other capacities as for instance, directors, people with interim agreements allowing them to promote their films, as well as relying on stars from other film industries.

Bailey explained that only 15 per cent of the festival’s lineup is from companies affected by the strike.

“Most of our lineup is independent and international,” he said. “We’ve got people like Andy Lau, Anil Kapoor and others who are coming to town with entirely independent and international films and they’re not affected by the strike.”

Hollywood fans can expect to see actors Sean Penn, Dakota Johnson and Viggo Mortensen, among others.

“No shortage of talent,” Bailey emphasised.

ECONOMIC PRESSURE

Economic pressures are pinching TIFF in other ways, however. The festival will lose its long-time lead sponsor, telecom giant and BNN Bloomberg’s parent company, Bell, after this year.

Other TIFF events have also seen sponsors pull back, Bailey said.

“Some of our partners who are maybe more focused on the red carpet part of the festival have stepped back in some cases, so we are looking to make that lost revenue up and to find new partners who can step in,” he said.

The combination of strikes and rising costs have also hurt TIFF’s hospitality partners and local businesses that rely on crowds of filmgoers and publicity from film star visits.

Bailey said one of the festival’s leading partners estimated they would lose about a fifth of their usual festival business this year.

“It’s not the majority by any means but it’s something that you would certainly feel,” Bailey admitted. 

This year, TIFF will screen over 250 films from 74 countries.

The opening film is Studio Ghibli’s Japanese animated fantasy film “The Boy and The Heron,” directed by Hayao Miyazaki. The Sylvester Stallone documentary “Sly” will close the festival.

BNN Bloomberg is owned by Bell Media, which is a division of BCE.

UBIQUITOUS CORNER STORES

Canadian consumer a 'bright spot' for Couche-

Tard amid grab bag of pressures: CEO

Canada appeared to be a “bright spot” for Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. in its latest quarter as the convenience store giant battles a slew of pressures. 

President and CEO Brian Hannasch told analysts that the company's Canadian operations led the way for a strong start to the convenience store giant's financial year, while U.S. consumers seemingly feeling the financial pinch. 

"When we look at our sales in the U.S., we're seeing certainly some trading down to more budget and price-conscious decisions," Hannasch said on a conference call Thursday to discuss the company's latest results. 

"We continue to see double-digit growth year over year on private label. So that tells me a certain segment of our customer base is stretched ... a little bit."

However, he noted continued resilience in Canada. 

"We continue to see that be a bright spot in our business," Hannasch said.

Same-store merchandise sales, or sales at stores open for at least one year, jumped 6.4 per cent in Canada in the quarter. They increased 2.1 per cent in the U.S. and 2.7 per cent in Europe and other regions. 

Meanwhile, same-store fuel sales volumes rose 7.2 per cent in Canada, 0.7 per cent in the U.S. and declined 1.5 per cent in Europe and other regions. 

In addition to the beginnings of U.S. consumer pressures, lower gas prices and higher expenses also dented the company’s financial results. 

The Laval, Que.-based company reported net earnings of US$834.1 million, down from US$872.4 million a year earlier, while revenues fell 16.3 per cent to US$15.6 billion. 

Total road transportation fuel revenue sank 21.5 per cent to US$11.2 billion, though the volume of road transportation fuel sold rose in the quarter.

Normalized operating expenses increased by 3.7 year-over-year, CFO Filipe Da Silva told investors. 

"This is mainly driven by the impact of costs from rising minimum wages, inflationary pressures, and incremental investments to support our strategic initiatives, while being partly offset by the continued strategic efforts to control our expenses," he said. 

Couche-Tard shares were trading 1.27 per cent lower in the late afternoon on the Toronto Stock Exchange. 

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 7, 2023.

 

Peter Zeihan: Canadian immigration provides a 'partial patch' to aging demographics

Daniel Johnson , BNN Bloomberg

As countries around the world contend with aging demographics, one geopolitical expert says Canada has been able to minimize the impacts due to a robust immigration system. 

Peter Zeihan, a geopolitical expert and author, said in an interview with BNN Bloomberg on Thursday that decades of geopolitical shifts have resulted in declining birth rates across many different countries, including Germany Poland and Japan.

After years of lower birth rates, he said “this was always the decade” many nations would see a dwindling number of working-age adults.

In the case of Canada, Zeihan said the country’s immigration system has worked to alleviate economic challenges that often arise when a large swath a population ages out of the workforce.

“Canada has found a partial patch to the demographic crisis that has plagued most of the rest of the world in immigration. It’s the only country in the world that has been able to pull it off,” Zeihan said. 

As long as you keep the door open, you're bringing in people in their 20s. And there just is a very limited supply of those on a global basis that actually have skills.”

However, Canada’s immigration policy comes with risks, Zeihan said, pointing to pressures in the housing market.  

Feds award $15 million contract to Sun Life to lay groundwork for dental care program

INSURER OF CHOICE FOR THE BUILDING TRADES UNIONS

The Canadian Press

The federal government has awarded a contract worth up to $15 million to lay the groundwork for a new national dental insurance plan.

Procurement Minister Jean-Yves Duclos and Health Minister Mark Holland announced today the contract was awarded to Sun Life Assurance Company of Canada. 

The federal government says this interim agreement will allow for the "timely launch and successful operation" of the plan, while details of the main contract are finalized.

The federal government is working to set up the new insurance plan to replace an interim benefit system that launched last year.

A national dental care program is a cornerstone of the supply-and-confidence agreement between the NDP and Liberals.

The spring budget promised $13 billion over the next five years to implement the national dental care plan, which the federal government says will insure up to nine million Canadians.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2023.

 

Private donation helps attract teachers to rural B.C. with $10,000 cash welcome gifts

Ashley Joannou, The Canadian Press

An elementary school classroom is seen in Vancouver, B.C., Thursday, April 13, 2023. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck

A rural school district in the British Columbia Interior has filled a shortfall of teachers with help from an anonymous benefactor who donated $200,000 to welcome new educators.

At a time when schools across the province are struggling with staff recruitment and retention, the Gold Trail School District offered $10,000 incentives to attract new teachers, and $15,000 for those who agreed to move to the small town of Lytton which was devastated by fire two years ago.

Superintendent Teresa Downs says all 18 vacancies this year have been filled by the district, which manages eight small schools ranging in size from three to 350 pupils, with a total enrollment of 1,100. Thirteen new teachers qualified for the extra cash, and unused funds could go to future hires, Downs said.

Last year there was a shortfall of about 22 teaching staff, representing about 20 per cent of staff. 

"So, we were unable to have any of our non-enrolling positions like teacher-counsellor or inclusion specialist filled, and there were times when we didn't have classrooms filled," Downs said of last year's staff shortage.

"And so, it meant that there was a profound impact on the morale of all of the staff here in the district, but also on, I think, the confidence that our communities and families had in the services we were offering their children."

The recruitment bonuses, which the district calls "welcome to the community awards," were focused on bringing teachers to the small communities of Ashcroft, Cache Creek, Clinton, Lillooet and Lytton.

"It's night and day on how I feel personally (relative to last year) and the sense that I'm getting as I visited schools this week, there is a tangible difference in morale," Downs said in an interview last week. 

"There just seems to be far more optimism in the year that we are going to have and how we will be able to serve students to our best."

The money was distributed through the group Community Futures Sun Country. Its general manager, Linsie Lachapelle, said the anonymous donor wanted their donation to go toward economic development and had agreed with the group's suggestion to use it to attract teachers.

"They just had heard about the struggles we've had, basically everyone is having, retaining teachers. There's a shortage everywhere," she said.

Lachapelle said the money is being given to teachers in instalments and while there's no requirement for them to stay beyond the year, it's hoped they will grow to love the small communities and remain for the long term.

When asked if there were concerns about a district having to rely on a donation to attract staff, the Ministry of Education and Child Care issued a statement acknowledging "shortages across the entire public sector in a variety of key positions, including in B.C.’s K-12 education system."

The statement says the government announced a $12.5 million investment to support the recruitment and retention of teachers in rural and northern districts, as well as Indigenous teachers.

"Part of this funding has been established to support the implementation of hiring incentives to assist school districts with their hiring needs for hard-to fill positions in rural and remote schools," it says.

"So far, we are hearing that these incentives are making a difference to recruit teachers and fill vacancies for September in school districts like Kamloops-Thompson and Vancouver Island West."

In a statement, BC Teachers' Federation president Clint Johnston said the federation understands "the frustration felt in communities that do not have a sufficient number of teachers, and we share that frustration."

He said a recent sample survey of its members found 80 per cent reported feeling direct impacts from the teacher shortage.

"From the BCTF’s perspective, when it comes to issues affecting teachers’ terms and conditions of employment, including salary and signing bonuses, it is important for these issues to be negotiated with the union as the bargaining agent for all teachers in the province," the statement says.

Downs said using private donations to attract teachers "shows the complexity of this public education system."

"What I think that donation says to me, is the strength of rural communities," she said.

"That schools in rural settings are really often the hub and the heart of the community, and that every community member knows the value of the school, whether they have children or family members in it or not."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 7, 2023

 

More post-secondary students rely on parents, stay home to finish school: RBC poll

Ritika Dubey, The Canadian Press

Inflation is driving more post-secondary students to stay home with their parents as they complete their studies — marking a shift from a decade ago, a poll published by RBC on Wednesday shows.

Almost half of respondents aged 18-29, or 47 per cent, said they plan to live with their parents this school year, compared with 36 per cent of students in 2013, the online survey reported.

The survey, which was conducted by Ipsos and surveyed 1,000 Canadian post-secondary students between June 29 and July 12, found 43 per cent of respondents assumed their parents would be taking care of their financial needs, compared to 29 per cent in 2013.

Jodi Letkiewicz, an associate professor at York University who specializes in personal finance, took issue with the survey's findings, saying she hasn't seen enough evidence to claim students are staying back with their parents while they complete their studies. 

However, she said, at York University — with its campuses in and around Toronto — it is common to see students living with their parents and commuting to campus. 

Letkiewicz also pointed out the release doesn't state reasons why students are choosing to stay home.

"We're going to need more research to speculate this," she said.

"Inflation is a part of the equation but we're in a real housing crunch. ... The real change is the cost of living."

The poll shed light on how post-secondary students are fighting to keep up with inflation. 

About half of them said they plan to take up part-time work as they attend school full-time, cut back on non-essential spending, stick to a prepared budget and regularly monitor their expenses.

The report found about 45 per cent of students expect to graduate with up to $20,000 in debt, a jump from 30 per cent in 2013.

Almost all students surveyed also said they were not good at handling money and would have to learn to better manage their finances.

"Students are looking at how expensive things are and deciding whether it's worth taking on more debt and what may now come as a luxury — live on your own during your post-secondary studies," said Letkiewicz.

"Students are trying to be a little more responsible."

Letkiewicz said the shift could also impact parents who are squeezing their finances, including their retirement, well-being and future, to fund their child's post-secondary education.

The poll cannot be assigned a margin of error because online surveys are not considered truly random samples.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2023.

 

Canada's tech industry experiencing shift away from remote work

Tara Deschamps, The Canadian Press

When Heather Aleinik was laid off from Shopify Inc. last summer, it was "one of the biggest curveballs" of her career.

The now 29-year-old Calgary woman had discovered remote work was conducive to her neurodivergence and love of travel while at the Ottawa-based e-commerce company, which launched a remote work policy at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic — a policy it claimed would be permanent. 

Aleinik eventually found a new job at a software firm advertising a "five-year remote commitment," but just as she started to get comfortable, the company built a new office in Florida and its CEO started extolling the benefits of working on-site. She quit just before employees living near the office were ordered back three days a week.

"The idea of going back is terrifying. The idea of being on a bus, being in public transit and for all of it to be made mandatory and we don't have a choice, that's one of the biggest reasons why I'm fighting to stay remote," Aleinik said.

"People get healthier when they're at home. They have better relationships with their family, they can manage childcare."

Aleinik's experience is a sign of a shift rippling through the tech sector as employers move away from entirely remote roles and toward hybrid and in-person work arrangements.

While companies in other industries are also increasingly mandating workers back to the office at least a few days every week, the tech sector's shift is notable — and even shocking to some — because the industry was an early champion of remote work.

In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke declared “office centricity is over” and said he'd let most of his workforce remain at home on a permanent basis.

Mark Zuckerberg even hypothesized Meta, then called Facebook, could have half its staff working remotely within five or 10 years.

Wary of being unable to compete with big tech names and not wanting to disrupt workers who had grown accustomed to logging on from their kitchen table or wherever their travels took them, startups seemed poised to let staff work remotely forever, too.

Those arrangements are scarcer these days.

A recent report from jobs site Indeed found that out of the number of Canadians who had some form of hybrid work arrangement, just shy of 60 per cent were fully remote, down from 75 per cent a year earlier.  

"We are seeing the majority of roles that we have posted right now are hybrid and have a city attached to them," said April Hicke, co-founder of Toast, a women's collective and talent organization that shares tech-focused job postings with its members.

The recent move away from purely remote jobs was "very, very quick and very dramatic," Hicke added, attributing much of the change to a ripple effect that began with big tech.

Video-conferencing pioneer Zoom asked employees who live within 80 kilometres of its offices to be on site two days a week in August.

Earlier this year, Zuckerberg prodded staff toward Meta's offices in March, even as he announced 10,000 workers were being laid off and another 5,000 job postings were being cancelled as part of his "year of efficiency."

"This requires further study, but our hypothesis is that it is still easier to build trust in person and that those relationships help us work more effectively," he wrote in an open letter.

Data captured by Meta showed engineers who either joined the company in-person and then transferred to remote or remained in-person performed better on average than people who joined remotely. Engineers earlier in their career perform better on average when they work in-person with teammates at least three days a week, the company also concluded.

Other firms have touted office and hybrid work as builders of camaraderie and made it clear that career advancement at their companies depend on in-person interactions.

IBM chief executive Arvind Krishna, for example, told Bloomberg in May he’s not forcing workers back to the office yet but said those who stick to remote work would find it difficult to get promoted, especially into managerial roles.

Amazon's Andy Jassy appears to agree. The chief executive reportedly told staff in late August “it’s probably not going to work out” for those who won't return to an office.

But getting workers back to the office should be about collaboration rather than career advancement, said Marta Max. The executive operations manager at Nanoleaf, a Toronto-based smart home technology company, tells staff that facetime does not equal more or fewer promotions.

Nanoleaf asks engineering product staff to be in on Mondays and Thursdays, while sales and marketing workers visit the office on Wednesdays.

"We got to the point where we actually figured let's make some days mandatory ... because they need that interaction, that sort of hands-on approach when they're solving complex problems with hardware and software," Max said.

"It's sometimes hard to do online and when you solve it, there's nobody around you to cheer with."

Despite asking staff on some teams to be in on specific days, Nanoleaf offers leeway for staff who moved out of the Greater Toronto Area or have scheduling conflicts.

Max says most of her friends in the industry, however, have been mandated back to offices. When she asks why, they tell her they think their company's chief executive hates working from home, wants to justify the expense of office space or just doesn't trust staff.

Pushing back on such stances is proving tougher because of increasing tech layoffs.

Companies like Shopify, Google, Amazon, Netflix and Microsoft have culled massive numbers of staff from their workforce. Layoffs aggregator Layoffs.fyi counted 231,695 workers across 968 tech companies globally who have lost their jobs this year alone.

"It's definitely more of an employer's market right now, so you may have to be more flexible in terms of salary, job title or where you want to work," Hicke said.

Yet Aleinik had luck finding a remote job, which she started in August. She's confident this employer won't force her back because her contract listed the role as 100 per cent remote and said if there was a move back to the office, it would be optional.

"Those were major green flags, but I would still say actions speak louder than words," she said.

"So if they buy offices and other buildings, ... if they say coming into the office is the best way to get to know your company, those are red flags that I missed before that I definitely don't see here."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2023.