IMPERIALIST RIVALRY

Russia Woos Africa With Free Grain, Fertilizer Research Funding

As Bloomberg News reported, Russian shipments of donated grain are due to begin landing in Africa within days.

NOVEMBER 26, 2023

As Bloomberg News reported, Russian shipments of donated grain are due to begin landing in Africa within days, giving fresh impetus to its bid to bolster its influence in the continent.

President Vladimir Putin promised to send free grain to six African countries that have strong ties with Moscow at a Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg in July. The move followed criticism that Russia’s war in Ukraine and its withdrawal from a deal that facilitated the export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea were pushing up global food and fertilizer prices.

The shipments will total 200,000 tons by year-end, the Russian Agriculture Ministry was cited by the Interfax news agency as saying Nov. 17, with Somalia and Burkina Faso set to be the first recipients. Zimbabwe, Mali, Eritrea and the Central African Republic are also due to get between 25,000 and 50,000 tons of grain each, Putin said in July. That’s a tiny fraction of what they consume.

Russia’s push to strengthen ties with African nations by increasing trade and deploying Wagner mercenaries to prop up unstable governments follows efforts by the US and its allies to isolate it in response to the invasion of Ukraine. It remains a minor player however — its two-way trade with the continent was only $18 billion in 2022, a fraction of China’s $282 billion.

Research presented at a conference in Cape Town on Sunday organized by a foundation set up by former South African President Thabo Mbeki sought to dispel the notion that Moscow bore primary responsibility for rising food costs. Direct or indirect sanctions imposed on Russia and its ally Belarus cut global fertilizer and ammonia supplies by 40.8 million tons through April 2023, according to the study, which was backed by a fund founded by Russian fertilizer billionaire Andrey Melnichenko.

Ukraine and Russia are two of the world’s leading exporters of grain and vegetable oil. The war has impacted on global supplies of both commodities, with Russia bombing Ukrainian stores and ports.

While Russian fertilizer hasn’t been subjected to international sanctions, penalties imposed on owners of companies that produce it and restrictions by the banking and logistics industries, saw exports fall last year. They have since recovered, spurring a decline in prices.

The study’s analysis of the impact of the Black Sea grain deal showed that it helped to feed about 95 million people but fell short in ensuring that fertilizer originating from Russia could flow freely to global markets. Had that happened, food could have been produced that fed about 199 million people, it said.

Billionaire Melnichenko, who holds dual citizenship from Russia and the United Arab Emirates, was sanctioned by the European Union and the US following the invasion of Ukraine. He traveled to South Africa late last year to lobby politicians to support his pleas for the EU to resolve fertilizer supply issues.

Pretoria has adopted a non-aligned stance toward the war in Ukraine that has drawn criticism from the US and some of its other largest trading partners. Thabo Mbeki spent time in exile in Russia during apartheid rule and served as South Africa’s president from 1999 until 2008. –With assistance from Paul Vecchiatto.

ECONOMIC HEGEMONY

The Domination of Dollar: Why is it so Powerful?

U.S. dollar is the de facto global currency, which means it is held in reserves by many governments, and that, most people and businesses trust it for international trade.

BYFARHAN R. JHUSWANTO
NOVEMBER 27, 2023

The dollar is the official currency of the United States and its surrounding regions, and it also serves as the official money of certain other countries. In fact, the U.S. dollar is frequently considered the world’s reserve currency. More than $1.8 trillion of U.S. currency is already in circulation worldwide, with two-thirds of $100 notes and nearly half of $50 notes likely to be held outside the U.S. As a matter of fact, the U.S. dollar is the de facto global currency, which means it is held in reserves by many governments, and that, most people and businesses trust it for international trade. Even as the coronavirus outbreak wreaked havoc on global markets, wiping off trillions of dollars in assets, the U.S. dollar remained untouched. It rose 4% versus a basket of major currencies at one time, including the euro, pound, yen, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, and Swedish krona.

What caused this increase in the value of the U.S. dollar?

On December 19, 2019, Steven Mnuchin, the United States Secretary of Treasury, stated that “the dollar is strong because of the U.S. economy and because people want to hold dollars and the safety of the U.S. dollar.” Investors getting away to “safe havens” in times of unpredictability, referring to investments that are expected to hold their value during market instability. And, certainly, the U.S. currency is regarded as such. But why is this so? It comes from the world’s greatest economy, the United States, which is politically and economically stable in general. As we can be certain that the value of the U.S. dollar will vary, it is unlikely to fall as precipitously as the Turkish Lira or the Argentine Peso.

All of that demand for the dollar can lead to shortages during times of economic crisis, which exacerbates the problem. The Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, is in charge of creating money and goes to great lengths to avoid a squeeze when there is a rush for the greenback. During the financial and coronavirus crises, for example, it established a number of ‘ swap channels’ with other major central banks to ensure there is adequate money available for investment and spending. When demand for the U.S. dollar rises, this helps to stabilize the currency markets.

How did the U.S. dollar become the world’s primary reserve currency?

Well, for a long time, industrialized economies’ currencies were linked to gold. During World War I, however, many of these countries abandoned the gold standard and began paying their military expenses with paper money instead. The U.S. dollar, which was still pegged to gold, eventually surpassed the British pound to become the world’s top reserve currency. During World War II, the United States sold weapons and supplies to several of its allies and was paid in gold. By 1947, the United States had amassed 70% of the world’s gold reserves, putting other countries at a significant disadvantage. The 44 Allied countries convened in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, in 1944 to try to resolve this and other financial issues. They concluded there that the world’s currencies would be anchored to the U.S. dollar, which would thereafter be linked to gold. As central banks began to accumulate reserves, these dollars were redeemed for gold, reducing the U.S. stockpile and raising concerns about the U.S. dollar’s stability. President Richard Nixon of the United States shocked the world in 1971 when he de-linked the dollar from gold. From there, floating exchange rates emerged, implying that exchange rates were no longer bound to gold and were set by market forces instead.

Despite market volatility and subsequent inflation, the U.S. dollar continues to be the world’s reserve currency. Because of their vast volume and America’s efficient banking system, the notes were more convenient and less expensive to exchange than other currencies. Today, the vast bulk of foreign exchange transactions are conducted in U.S. dollars, with no other currency coming close. In recent decades, the United States has even been suspected of “weaponizing” its money in order to gain strategic and geopolitical advantage. Critics referenced the Trump administration’s restrictions on North Korea and Iran, which included prohibiting them from using the dollar in trade. Some economies rely sorely on U.S. currency, which is frequently utilized in day-to-day transactions. In Cambodia, ATMs allow us to withdraw money in U.S. dollars. Commodities such as metals, energy, and agricultural items are typically exchanged in U.S. dollars on a global basis.

Here’s an illustration of how the U.S. dollar affects ordinary business transactions. Let’s assume an Indonesian coffee factory wishes to sell its products to a Turkish department store. If the Turkish shop attempts to pay in Turkish Lira, the Indonesian coffee farmer is likely to respond, “I have no idea how much this is worth, and I obviously won’t be able to use it in Indonesia.” Meanwhile, the department store might claim that the rupiah isn’t worth anything too in Turkey. As a result, they’re both more likely to transact in U.S. dollars. These dollars will subsequently be converted into Indonesian rupiahs. Once we add up the number of transactions as such that occur every day, you’re sending a lot of money into foreign economies.

Is There Any Chance for an Alternative Reserve Currency?

We have established that the U.S. dollar is financially secure. But we might be wondering, what about other currencies that are stable too like the Swiss Franc or the Singapore dollar, both of which come from politically and economically stable countries too. Well, those are fair points, but the truth is, those countries just have far less influence and economic power. Switzerland’s population is a mere 8 million, while the U.S. has more than 332 million. According to the central banks’ foreign exchange reserves worldwide cited from the International Monetary Fund’s report on Q4 of 2019, the majority of currency reserves are 60,9% made up of U.S. dollars, the euro makes up nearly 21%, the Japanese yen makes up nearly 6% while the pound sterling makes up nearly 5%. Thus, could any of these other currencies give the dollar a run for its money?

For years there have been calls for an alternative reserve currency, ranging from countries like China and Russia to intergovernmental organizations like the United Nations. In recent years, some central banks have added the Chinese yuan to their reserves. The threat of the U.S. sanctions or the “weaponized dollar” has also prompted a desire for some countries to bypass dollar-denominated trading. In 2018, Germany’s foreign minister wrote in an op-ed that it is “essential that we strengthen European autonomy by establishing payment channels independent of the U.S.” Some are hoping the world’s future reserve currency won’t be tied to a national government at all. They believe that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin will eventually dethrone the dollar. Even yet, any change in the strength of the U.S. dollar is unlikely to occur overnight. Despite plans for an alternative reserve currency, it’s still difficult to imagine any country ever succeeding the United States as the world’s reserve currency anytime soon.


Farhan R. Jhuswanto is a master's student at Gadjah Mada University. His research interests revolve around the international political economy, diplomacy, and other economic features such as trends, exports-imports, and investments.

China's thermal coal imports jump, crowding out India: Russell

27 November 2023 - BY CLYDE RUSSELL

China's imports are being driven by increased arrivals from Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, with Kpler estimating 18.03 million metric tons will arrive this month.
Image: 123RF/ARTUR NYK/ File photo

China's imports of thermal coal in November are poised to surge to the second-highest monthly total this year, helping drive prices higher for the grades most commonly sought by the world's biggest buyer of the power station fuel.

Thermal coal imports are expected to be around 29.21 million metric tons in November, up from October's 24.62 million and second only to the 30.21 million in May, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.

China's imports are being driven by increased arrivals from Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, with Kpler estimating 18.03 million metric tons will arrive this month.

This is up from imports from Indonesia of 16.70 million metric tons in October, according to Kpler data.

Indonesian coal is popular among southern China coastal utilities as its relatively low sulphur content allows it to blend well with higher sulphur domestic supplies.

China's appetite for Indonesian coal has helped prices rally, with commodity price reporting agency Argus assessing fuel with an energy content of 4,200 kilocalories per kg (kcal/kg) at $58.94 a metric ton for the week to Nov. 24.

This was the second consecutive weekly gain and this grade is now 17% higher than the low so far this year of $50.38 a metric ton, hit in the week to Aug. 25.

However, the higher price for Indonesian coal is likely leading to reduced interest in India, the world's second-biggest importer of the fuel.

India is expected to import around 17.78 million metric tons of thermal coal in November, down from 18.82 million in October, which was the strongest month so far in 2023, according to Kpler data.

Imports from Indonesia are expected to decline to 10.92 million metric tons in November from 12.19 million in October.

However, India's imports of thermal coal from Australia are expected to hold steady in November from October, meaning a larger share for the world's second-biggest exporter of the fuel.

Thermal coal arrivals from Australia are forecast to be 1.11 million metric tons in November, up slightly from the 1.02 million in October.

In the past two months India has turned more to thermal coal from Australia, with imports exceeding 1 million metric tons in both October and November, the first months this has happened since February.

Indian utilities tend to buy Australian thermal coal linked to the Argus assessment for 5,500 kcal/kg fuel, which declined to $93.12 per metric ton in the seven days to Nov. 24.

While this grade is still 10.5% above its September low of $84.25 a metric ton, it's down 12% from its recent peak of $105.85 from the week ended Oct. 13.

CHINA TAKES AUSTRALIAN COAL

China has also increased purchases from Australia, and it also prefers the same grade as India, as opposed to the 6,000 kcal/kg higher-quality coal that is mainly imported by Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

China's imports of thermal coal from Australia are estimated at 7.22 million metric tons, up from 4.23 million in October and the highest monthly total since Beijing ended its informal ban on imports from Australia at the start of this year.

November's imports even exceed the volumes that were typical before the ban being imposed in mid-2020 amid a political fallout between Beijing and Canberra, and it's the strongest month in Kpler data going back to 2017.

Overall, its possible that China's increased appetite for imported thermal coal ahead of the northern winter is crowding out some demand in India, which tends to be a more price-sensitive buyer.

This is especially the case for supplies from Indonesia, with China's increased volumes causing India to lose out, forcing it to turn to other suppliers such as Australia.

India is also taking larger volumes from SA, with Kpler estimating November imports at 2.67 million metric tons, down a tad from October's 2.71 million, but up from 2.24 million in September, 1.56 million in August and July's 1.06 million.

SA is a swing supplier to both the Atlantic and Indian basins, and Europe's declining coal imports this year have freed up South African cargoes for Asian buyers.

SA exported 3.74 million metric tons to Asia in October and just 386,860 to Europe, a shift from the same month in 2022 when shipments to Asia were 2.93 million and to Europe were 2.22 million.

The increased availability of South African coal in Asia has helped moderate price gains for Indonesian and Australian grades.

MODI'S CURSED TUNNEL UPDATED

Trapped in a Tunnel for 15 Days, With No End in Sight

The effort to rescue 41 construction workers in India has faced repeated setbacks. Now the authorities are trying to drill vertically through a mountain.

The rescue effort on Sunday outside the collapsed tunnel in India.

Credit...Harish Tyagi/EPA, via Shutterstock


By Suhasini Raj

NEW YORK TIMES
Nov. 27, 2023

Over the two weeks that dozens of Indian construction workers have been trapped in a Himalayan road tunnel, the authorities have reported meter-by-meter progress toward reaching them and offered hopeful timelines for their rescue. Each time a breakthrough has appeared imminent, politicians have rushed to the scene.

Yet 15 days after disaster struck, the 41 men are still stuck. Multiple attempts at boring through rubble have failed. And now, as Indian officials try a new tack — drilling down through the top of a mountain — they acknowledge that the effort will take several days, if it works at all.

“We feel a looming sense of doom,” said Jyotish Basumatary, whose brother, Sanjay Basumatary, is trapped inside. “But we are holding on tight. We cannot afford to give up hope.”

Jyotish, who works in a different part of the tunnel project and has been helping with the rescue endeavor, said he is now worried that colder weather would make the effort even more complicated. If it rains, “the workers’ hands would freeze,” he said by phone.

The 41 construction workers became stranded on Nov. 12 in the northern Indian state of Uttarakhand after a landslide in the delicate mountain landscape caused a collapse in the tunnel they were building as part of a road construction project.

The authorities are now trying to drill down through the top of the mountain.

Credit...Arun Sankar/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Shortly after the accident, officials were able to confirm that the men were safe and started communicating with them. Food, water, oxygen and medicine were sent in through pipes into the tunnel.

For many of their families, the only updates on the situation inside the tunnel have come from news reports. Their concerns eased a bit on Tuesday, when the authorities managed to send an endoscopy camera through the pipes, and the first images of the workers emerged.

The video showed the men standing in the tunnel and wearing hard hats, with a bright light shining behind them.

Their ordeal has stretched on as efforts to cut through the debris trapping them inside have hit a series of setbacks. Hundreds of officials and workers involved in the rescue were forced to turn to contingency plans, flying in machinery from other parts of India and bringing in experts from abroad.

Late last week, the authorities reported progress on an effort to insert pipes into the tunnel that would be used to extract the men. Officials had turned to the pipes after previous efforts to cut through the debris had caused more debris to fall.

But that work also hit a roadblock, after the auger machine being used to pierce through the rubble broke in the final stretch of drilling.

Sohan Singh, who is in charge of the district emergency operation center in Uttarkashi, the site of the tunnel, said the rescue effort was now focusing on several options simultaneously.

First, officials are working to extract and repair the broken auger machine, he said. Plan B is the work to drill down from the mountaintop. Plan C is to dig a tunnel from another side of the mountain.

Mr. Singh said that the auger remained the priority. New auger machines have arrived from other parts of the country, and drilling could resume after the broken machine is removed, he said.

As the work inched along last week, those involved said they were proceeding with extreme caution.

“We have a mountain that is unhappy; we know there has been an avalanche,” Arnold Dix, an international tunneling expert, told reporters gathered outside the tunnel. “To open the door safely, it means we have to bring extra care.”

The tunnel is part of a road project intended to provide quicker access to four major Hindu shrines. Access to pilgrimage sites has been a big part of the agenda of the governing Hindu nationalist party.

But the construction has faced criticism from environmentalists, including a committee appointed by India’s Supreme Court. They have warned that the landscape, with its frequent landslides and flooding, has become increasingly fragile as the planet warms.

Experts and news reports have raised alarms about how the country conducts environmental assessments for such projects. The procedures are so weak and vulnerable to political manipulation that disasters could be repeated, they said.

Most of the workers trapped in the tunnel are from India’s poorer states, such as Jharkhand, Odisha and Assam, places where many people leave to pursue employment elsewhere.

The first images of the trapped workers after an endoscopy camera was sent in through pipes last week.

Credit...Uttarakhand Department of Information and Public Relations, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Sanjay Basumatary, who had been working at the site since the summer, earns about $250 a month. His bother said the landslide occurred about three hours before Sanjay’s shift was to end on the morning of Nov. 12.

Jyotish Basumatary said he had spoken to his brother four times by shouting into a pipe. His brother had been surviving on raisins, cashews and almonds before the bigger pipe was inserted and a concoction of lentils and rice could be sent in bottles.

It is impossible to know how the men are holding up psychologically, Mr. Basumatary said. “We called out their names, and one by one they lined up — we could see them on the camera. But nobody spoke about how they felt,” he said.

Mr. Basumatary said his family back home was “restless, dejected and angry.”

“We want to know why an alternate escape was not prepared even before the work of the tunnel was begun,” he said.

The Indian news media reported that the same section of the Uttarakhand tunnel gave way in 2019, causing a delay in the work but no casualties. More than 200 people were killed after a flash flood trapped workers and residents near a major hydropower project in the region in 2021.

“One cannot survive without development,” said Sushil Khanduri, a former geologist with the state’s disaster management authority. “But at what cost? Development has to go hand in hand with the environment.”

Mujib Mashal contributed reporting.

Suhasini Raj has worked for over a decade as an investigative journalist with Indian and international news outlets. Based in the New Delhi bureau, she joined The Times in 2014. 

Rainy weather closing in on rescuers trying to reach trapped men

Bad weather was approaching with thunderstorms, hail and lower temperatures expected in the mountains but rescue organisers said they would handle it.

As well as the thunder and hail, cold weather is setting in with a minimum of 9 degrees Celsius (48.2 degrees Fahrenheit) expected on Monday. (Image credit: Reuters)

Wet weather expected on Monday could mean more complications for the rescue of 41 construction workers trapped in a tunnel in the Indian Himalayas for more than two weeks but rescue leaders said they are prepared to deal with it. The workers, from some of India's poorest states, have been stuck in the 4.5 km (3 miles) tunnel in Uttarakhand state since it collapsed on Nov. 12.

Bad weather was approaching with thunderstorms, hail and lower temperatures expected in the mountains but rescue organisers said they would handle it.

"They are trained in working in every situation so that's not a worry for us," said Mahmood Ahmad, managing director of the NHIDCL company, which is building the tunnel and helping with the rescue, referring to rescue teams.

The 41 trapped men have been getting food, water, light, oxygen, and medicines through a narrow pipe but efforts to dig them a tunnel to bring them out have run into a series of snags. Rescuers trying to drill a tunnel horizontally through the rocks trapping the men have been plagued by damage to their machinery and have resorted to drilling by hand, after clearing away the broken equipment.

On Sunday, they opened another route to the men, aiming to drill a shaft straight down from the top of the mountain above them to get them out. "Difficulties will come, difficulties have been coming, but we are prepared for it," said Jasvant Kapoor, a general manager of the SJVNL drilling company which is in charge of the new shaft.

As well as the thunder and hail, cold weather is setting in with a minimum of 9 degrees Celsius (48.2 degrees Fahrenheit) expected on Monday. The tunnel is part of the Char Dham highway, one of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's most ambitious projects, aimed at connecting four Hindu pilgrimage sites through 890 km of roads. Authorities have not said what caused the initial cave-in that trapped the men as they were nearing the end of their night shift but the region is prone to landslides, earthquakes, and floods.

Rescuers attempt manual digging to free 41 Indian workers trapped for over 2 weeks in tunnel
Associated Press
Updated Mon, November 27, 2023 

Indian army personnel prepare to deploy a small excavator at the site of an under-construction road tunnel that had collapsed in Silkyara in the northern Indian state of Uttarakhand, India, Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023. Rescuers are racing to evacuate 41 construction workers who have been trapped in the tunnel for nearly two weeks. 

NEW DELHI (AP) — Authorities in India said on Monday they were set to begin manual digging of what they hoped was the final phase of rescuing the 41 construction workers trapped in a collapsed mountain tunnel in the country's north for over two weeks.

Rescuers have started to drill vertically — an alternate plan to digging horizontally from the front — with a newly replaced drilling machine excavating about 32 meters (105 feet), according to officials.

Devendra Patwal, a disaster management official at the site, said they were prepared for all kinds of challenges, but hoped they wouldn’t face stiff resistance from the mountain.


“We don’t know what the drilling machine will have to cut through. It could be loose soil or rocks. But we are prepared,” he said.

So far, rescuers have excavated and inserted pipes — after digging horizontally — up to 46 meters (150 feet), welded together to serve as a passageway from where the men would be pulled out on wheeled stretchers.

The drilling machine broke down repeatedly because of the mountainous terrain of the area and was damaged irreparably on Friday and had to be replaced.

Rescuers worked overnight to pull out parts of the drilling machine stuck inside the pipes so manual digging could start, said Patwal.

The workers have been trapped since Nov. 12 when a landslide in Uttarakhand state caused a portion of the 4.5-kilometer (2.8-mile) tunnel they were building to collapse about 200 meters (650 feet) from the entrance.

The vertical digging, which started Sunday, required the rescuers to excavate about 106 meters (347 feet). The length is nearly double the approximately 60 meters (196 feet) they need to dig through horizontally from the front.

They could also face similar risks or problems they encountered earlier that damaged the first drilling machine attempting to cut through rocks. The high-intensity vibrations from drilling could also cause more debris to fall.

As the rescue operation entered its 16th day, uncertainty over its fate has been growing. Some locals offered Hindu prayers near the tunnel.

What began as a rescue mission expected to take a few days has turned into weeks, and officials have been hesitant to give a timeline.

Some officials were hopeful that the rescue mission would be completed last week. Arnold Dix, an international expert assisting the rescue team, however, told reporters he was confident the workers would be back with their families by Christmas, suggesting they were prepared for a longer operation.

Most of the trapped workers are migrant laborers from across the country. Many of their families have traveled to the location, where they have camped out for days to get updates on the rescue effort and in hopes of seeing their relatives soon.

Authorities have supplied the trapped workers with hot meals through a 6-inch (15-centimeter) pipe after days of surviving only on dry food sent through a narrower pipe. Oxygen is also being supplied through a separate pipe, and more than a dozen doctors, including psychiatrists, have been at the site monitoring their health.

The tunnel the workers were building was designed as part of the Chardham all-weather road, which will connect various Hindu pilgrimage sites. Some experts say the project, a flagship initiative of the federal government, will exacerbate fragile conditions in the upper Himalayas, where several towns are built atop landslide debris.

Large numbers of pilgrims and tourists visit Uttarakhand’s many Hindu temples, with the number increasing over the years because of the continued construction of buildings and roadways.

Uttarakhand tunnel collapse: Rescuers explore new ways to reach trapped Indians

Anant Zanane in Uttarkashi and Nikhila Henry in Delhi - BBC News
Mon, November 27, 2023 

Rescue operations have been going on for over a fortnight in Uttarakhand

Authorities are working on new ways to reach the 41 Indian workers trapped inside a tunnel in Uttarakhand state after the main rescue plan suffered a major delay.

Until now, rescuers were drilling a hole horizontally through the rocks to allow the men to crawl through.

But the operation was halted after the drilling machine broke down on Friday.

The workers have been stuck for two weeks after a part of the tunnel collapsed due to a landslide.

The operation has been challenging from the beginning, mainly due to the presence of falling boulders, loose soil and metal inside the tunnel.

On Friday, the rescuers seemed to be making steady progress when the drilling machine broke down inside the tunnel after getting stuck on pieces of metal that have been mixed in with the debris.

The machine was completely removed on Monday morning.

In the meantime, rescuers have started to dig vertically into the tunnel to carve an alternative route for the trapped men.

Officials say they are also exploring other techniques, including manual digging, to reach them faster.
Vertical drilling

As per the plan, the rescuers will try to reach the workers from the top of the hill in Silkyara of Uttarakashi district, under which the tunnel was being constructed.

Officials have already created access roads and platforms to reach the top.

The rescuers will have to drill 86m (282 feet) downward to reach the workers - that's nearly double the distance of the horizontal route (46.6m).

By Monday morning, authorities had managed to dig 31m into the tunnel.

A boring machine is being used to drill a vertical hole into the collapsed tunnel

Mahmood Ahmed, a senior official at the National Highways and Infrastructure Development Corporation, which is leading the rescue operations, said that at the given pace, the rescue operations could be completed in another 100 hours "if no other hurdle comes our way".

If the process is completed smoothly, the workers will be pulled out in buckets through the vertical hole, according to The Hindu newspaper.

Officials say that bad weather, with approaching thunderstorms and the possibility of snowfall in the Himalayan region, could complicate the process - but add that they are prepared to deal with the situation.
Perpendicular drilling

Until now, authorities had been working to send multiple pipes of differing widths through the estimated 60m (197ft) debris wall to create a micro-tunnel through which the workers could be wheeled out on stretchers.

Now, they are also planning to drill 180m perpendicular to the main site of drilling to create an alternate route to reach the workers.

Army personnel are helping with the rescue efforts

A platform was erected on Sunday to mount the special drills which will be used for this process, the Hindu reported.

But officials have not yet commented on the status of the operation.
Manual digging

Rescuers had managed to drill 34m downwards horizontally, with just 12m remaining, when the auger machine broke down on Friday.

The operation was put on hold until the emergency crews removed the machine from the tunnel, which was completed on Monday morning.

Now rescuers will start digging manually to remove the remaining debris from the route.

But they will continue to use a drilling machine to push the pipes into the opening, officials said.

Indian workers trapped in collapsed tunnel for 15 days will be out ‘by Christmas’, says expert

Stuti Mishra

INDEPENDENT
Sun, November 26, 2023

Indian workers who have been stuck inside an under-construction tunnel for 15 days will be out “by Christmas”, according to a tunnelling expert who is assisting the rescue effort.

The comments are an indication that the 41 workers may have to remain trapped inside the tunnel under inhospitable conditions for potentially a month longer than expected.

It comes as more bad news for the families of the workers, who have been waiting anxiously for them to be rescued, with many camping out at the site of the operation.

India’s authorities said that they are working to figure out a faster solution to evacuate the construction workers who have been stuck there since 12 November, while the Indian army has now joined the rescue effort.

Rescue teams have faced repeated issues with the drilling operation, from new landslides to equipment breakdowns, and now admit the operation could take much more time.

Australian tunnelling expert Arnold Dix, who has been working with Indian officials, told the media he had “always promised that they will be home by Christmas”.

“This operation could take a long time,” said Syed Ata Hasnain, a member of the country’s National Disaster Management Authority.

Progress was halted as an auger machine being used to drill a hole stopped working (EPA)

The rescue operation could take several more weeks as teams drilling through rocks and debris faced a new hurdle after the auger machine being used to drill a hole in the collapsed tunnel stopped working on Saturday.

The blades of the auger machine got stuck in the debris and the machine stopped working. The machine had drilled about 6.5ft of the last 40-foot stretch of rock debris to create a passage for the workers to come out.

Experts are now focusing on two alternative rescue plans.

One involves workers, including the Indian army, carrying out a manual drilling exercise to excavate the roughly 33ft stretch needed to reach the workers.

The other involves vertically drilling 282ft from above, something that could take much longer.

The rescue operations have been taking longer as the tunnel is located in an environmentally sensitive region in the northern state of Uttarakhand.

The workers, who are migrant labourers from various parts of India, are being provided with oxygen, food and water through a pipe.

Doctors and officials have been in regular contact with them, and have continually assessed their health and wellbeing.

Rescuers try new tack to reach Indian tunnel workers

Reuters Videos
Sun, November 26, 2023 

STORY: Two weeks in, a new tactic to rescue 41 workers trapped in a highway tunnel in the Indian Himalayas.

Rescuers began drilling vertically on Sunday (November 26) from the top of the mountain, government officials said, adding it will take about 100 hours.

The rescue plan initially involved pushing a pipe wide enough to pull the trapped men out on wheeled stretchers.

But that hit a set back on Friday (November 24) when a heavy drill broke, leaving rescuers reliant on hand-held power tools to break through the rock.

The construction workers, who come from some of India's poorest states, have been stuck in the 3-mile tunnel being built in Uttarakhand state since it caved in on Nov. 12.

They are safe, with access to light, oxygen, food, water and medicines, authorities have said.

The father of 22-year-old Majeet Chaudhary, who is stuck in the tunnel, says he wants his son to change job when he gets out. "I want him to stay near me," he says.

Authorities have not said what caused the tunnel collapse, but the region is prone to landslides, earthquakes and floods.

A panel of experts investigating the disaster has found the tunnel had no emergency exit and was built through a geological fault, according to one of its member speaking on condition of anonymity.

The men have been getting cooked food such as lentils, flatbreads and vegetable curry since a larger lifeline pipe was pushed through earlier this week.

Indian army digs by hand to free 41 trapped tunnel workers

Jalees ANDRABI
Sun, November 26, 2023 

The Silkyara road tunnel in northern India, which partially collapsed on November 12 (Arun SANKAR)


Indian military engineers were preparing to dig by hand Monday to reach 41 workers trapped in a collapsed road tunnel for 16 days, a rescue operation hit by repeated setbacks.

Soldiers plan to use a so-called "rat-hole mining" technique, digging by hand to clear the rocks and rubble over the remaining nine metres (29 feet), with temperatures plummeting in the remote mountain location in the Himalayan state of Uttarakhand.

Last week, engineers working to drive a metal pipe horizontally through 57 metres (187 feet) of rock and concrete ran into metal girders and construction vehicles buried in the earth, snapping a giant earth-boring augur machine.

"The broken parts of the auger (drilling) machine stuck inside the tunnel have been removed", senior local civil servant Abhishek Ruhela told AFP on Monday, after a specialised superheated plasma cutter was brought in to clear the metal.

"Preparations are being made to start manual drilling work," he added. "Indian Army engineering battalion personnel, along with other rescue officers, are preparing to do rat-hole mining".

Engineers in the bitterly cold conditions will use manual drills to clear the route, a tough task in the narrow pipe, just wide enough for a man to crawl through.

- 'Challenging' -

In a separate effort, vertical drilling has reached more than a quarter of the 89 metres down to the men, a risky route in an area that has already suffered a collapse.

A drilling machine was brought up to the forested hill above the tunnel on a specially-constructed track.

"Vertical drilling is going on at a fast pace," with teams having reached 19 metres (63 feet) by late Sunday, said Mahmood Ahmed, a top official in the national roads ministry.

Work is ongoing at "full speed but with caution", he added.

Digging, blasting and drilling have also begun from the far side of the road tunnel, a much longer third route estimated to be around 480 metres.

The 41 construction workers have been trapped in the Silkyara road tunnel since November 12.

Efforts have been painfully slow, complicated by falling debris and repeated breakdowns of drilling machines.

Hopes that the team was on the verge of a breakthrough on Wednesday were dashed, with a government statement warning of the "challenging Himalayan terrain".

For the distraught relatives of the trapped men, it has been an ordeal without an imminent end in sight.

But Uttarakhand chief minister Pushkar Singh Dhami vowed Monday that all the men would be rescued.

"Do not worry, all the labourers will be taken out safely", he said on X, formerly Twitter.

The workers were seen alive for the first time on Tuesday, peering into the lens of an endoscopic camera sent by rescuers down a thin pipe through which air, food, water and electricity are being delivered.

Though trapped, they have plenty of space in the tunnel, with the area inside 8.5 metres high and stretching about two kilometres in length.

bur-pjm/mca

Uttarakhand tunnel collapse: Rescuers to dig by hand to rescue trapped workers
BBC
Sat, November 25, 2023

Ambulances and men waiting outside a tunnel

Rescue work to save 41 workers trapped in a tunnel in India's Uttarakhand state has been delayed by at least four to five days because the drilling machine broke down inside the tunnel.

Rescuers will begin digging manually once the faulty part is removed.

The workers have been stuck inside the tunnel for two weeks after a portion of it collapsed due to a landslide.

The operation has been challenging due to the presence of rocks, stones and metal inside the debris.

Rescuers have to resort to drilling by hand because the auger keeps getting stuck on pieces of metal that have been mixed in with the debris, and say it would be better to switch to manual drilling instead of waiting for a replacement machine.

Arnold Dix, a tunnelling expert helping with the rescue work, told reporters at the site: "The machine has broken. It's irreparable. It is disrupted."

But Mr Dix said he was confident the 41 men would return home, saying there were "many ways" to reach them.

A section of the 4.5km (3 miles) Silkyara tunnel in the Indian Himalayas caved in on 12 November.

Contact was established with the trapped men shortly thereafter, and they have been receiving oxygen, food, and water ever since.


Rescuers were just 9m (30ft) from breaking through to the workers before the auger broke.

Pushkar Singh Dhami, chief minister of Uttarakhand state, told reporters on Saturday that the damaged drilling machine would be taken out by Sunday morning allowing rescuers to continue digging manually.

Mr Dhami told reporters he had spoken to the trapped men, saying: "They are in good spirits. They said: 'Take as many days as you require, don't worry about us.'"

In the meantime, ambulances have been kept on standby outside the tunnel. Officials say the aim is to pull the workers out to safety and shift them to the nearby hospital as quickly as possible.


Indian tunnel rescue halted for days as drilling machine breaks down

Michael Dorgan

FOX NEWS
Sat, November 25, 2023 

Indian tunnel rescue halted for days as drilling machine breaks down

The race to save 41 construction workers trapped in a tunnel in northern India has hit yet another setback as the drilling machine rescuers have been using has broken down and cannot be repaired – bringing the entire rescue operation to a halt.

The workers have been trapped beneath a collapsed road tunnel in the Uttarkashi district of India's Uttarakhand state for 13 days after a portion of it collapsed due to a landslide. Reports suggest it may take four to five days to resume drilling as a new machine is put in place.

Rescuers have been beset by setbacks and delays as they struggle to drill through the 195 feet of heavy rock and debris that is separating them from the trapped workers. Rescue personnel have been in regular contact with the workers, and they have been able to send them oxygen, dry food and water.

A U.S.-made auger machine was being used to penetrate horizontally through the mountainous terrain, but it broke down on Saturday and cannot be repaired. It is unclear what caused the machine to break.

It came just a day after the machine’s platform became destabilized and halted operations. The 25-tonne platform was reinforced with concrete and drilling resumed, but the machine broke down again.

Arnold Dix, an international expert assisting the rescue team at the accident site, said it is unclear when exactly the drilling will restart. A new machine is being set up at the site in order to drill vertically.

"The machine is busted, it is irreparable," Dix said about the broken machine. "The mountain has once again resisted the auger (machine)."

The machine’s high-intensity vibrations were also causing more debris to fall, prompting officials to suspend rescue efforts briefly.

Rescue personnel move a digging machine during a rescue operation for workers trapped in a tunnel in northern India.

On Wednesday, the operation was stalled after workers encountered a thick metal rod that had to be cut using gas cutters, the BBC reported.

The machine stopped working after it had drilled about 6.5 feet of the last 40-foot stretch of rock debris that would open a passage for the workers to come out of the tunnel.

Rescue teams were planning on creating an escape route comprised of a tunnel of pipes welded together. Once in place, rescue teams hoped the workers could escape to freedom.

Pushkar Singh Dhami, chief minister of Uttarakhand state, said the damaged drilling machine would be taken out by Sunday morning. He said he had spoken to some of the trapped men.

"They are in good spirits," Dhami said, according to the BBC.

"Take as many days as you require, don't worry about us," Dhami said, quoting one of the workers.

A new drilling machine used to dig vertically was brought to the accident site on Saturday.

The vertical dig is seen as an alternative plan to reach the trapped men, and rescuers have already created an access road to the top of the hill.

However, rescue teams will need to dig about 440 feet downward to reach the trapped workers — nearly double the distance of the horizontal shaft.

The construction workers have been trapped since Nov. 12 when a landslide caused a portion of the 2.7-mile Silkyara tunnel they were building to collapse about 500 feet from the entrance. The hilly area is prone to landslides and subsidence.

Rescue workers look on as they prepare for drilling during a rescue operation for workers trapped in a tunnel in India.

The workers had been helping to construct a section of a 424-mile road connecting various Hindu pilgrimage sites in the area. The mountainous topography has several Hindu temples that attract pilgrims and tourists.

More than a dozen doctors, including psychiatrists, have been at the accident site monitoring their health.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Rescue of Workers Trapped for Weeks Delayed as Drill Breaks
Chaya Tong
Sat, November 25, 2023 

Arun Sankar / Getty Images

Drilling to rescue the 41 construction workers trapped in a collapsed tunnel in India has once again hit a literal block in the road as the drilling machine broke down while clearing debris on Friday. Arnold Dix, an expert helping the rescue team, said the machine is irreparable and that it remains unclear when drilling can resume. The workers have been stuck since Nov. 12 after a landslide collapsed the tunnel they were working in. The machine stopped working after drilling 2 out of the 12 meters left to reach the workers. A new machine was brought to the site on Saturday for a vertical dig, which is an alternative rescue plan that would require 103 meters of digging. In the meantime, workers have been supplied with food and oxygen through narrow pipes as many of their families camp outside the site waiting for them.

Read it at ABC News

Wait goes on for Indian tunnel workers trapped for 14 days as drilling machine ‘irreparable’

Stuti Mishra

AFP
Sat, November 25, 2023 

The 41 Indian workers trapped inside a collapsed tunnel for 14 days will have to wait even longer to be rescued as officials trying to pull them out have faced yet another unexpected hurdle.

A drilling machine that is being used to remove debris and install a pipe to evacuate the workers has broken down, an international expert aiding rescue operations said on Saturday.

The construction workers have been trapped inside the 2.8-mile-long tunnel since 12 November after a landslide in an environmentally sensitive region in northern India’s Uttarakhand state led to its collapse.

The extensive operation to free the workers has become an increasing source of concern for their families, who are anxiously waiting to reunite with their loved ones.

Officials have repeatedly said the workers will be rescued soon, but have hit repeated major technical issues.

“The machine [to drill through the debris] is busted,” said Arnold Dix, an international expert assisting the rescue team at the accident site.

“It is irreparable,” he said, while adding that it is unclear when drilling will begin again.

“The mountain has once again resisted the auger (machine).”

Rescuers have since been working by hand to remove debris.

A view of the collapsed under construction Silkyara tunnel in the Uttarkashi district of India's Uttarakhand state (AFP via Getty Images)

The teams faced setbacks earlier too with the drilling machine, but had made slow progress to reach the sensitive spot, about 650ft from the entrance, where the workers are stuck.

The mountainous terrain in the area has made it difficult for drilling machines to break through debris. Rescue teams had devised a horizontal drilling plan and inserted pipes into a dug-out channel, creating a passageway for the workers to be pulled out on wheeled stretchers.

The auger machine had drilled about 6.5ft of the last 40-foot stretch of rock debris to create a passage for the workers to come out.

About 151ft of pipe has been laid so far, according to Devendra Patwal, a disaster management officer, reported Reuters.

But because of the drilling machine not working any longer, government officials are now looking to begin an alternative, vertical drilling strategy.

Rescuers will have to cover twice the distance of the originally planned horizontal shaft, potentially further delaying rescue efforts.

A new vertical drilling machine was transported for this purpose to the accident site on Saturday.

While rescue teams have established an access road to the hill’s summit, they must now dig downward for 338ft to reach the workers.

The workers, who are migrant labourers from various parts of India, are being provided with oxygen, food and water through a pipe.

Doctors and officials have been in regular contact with them, and have continually assessed their health and well-being. But the anxious families of the workers are now camping at the accident site with the hope of seeing their loved ones soon.

The tunnel being built by the workers was designed as part of an all-weather road that aims to connect various Hindu pilgrimage sites in Uttarakhand.

The flagship project has raised concerns over the risks of construction and drilling in the ecologically sensitive Himalayan region once again.

Several towns in the region are built over landslide debris and have been facing increasing risks landslides, land subsidence and floods.

EXPLAINER

Israel-Palestine conflict: A brief history in maps and charts

As Gaza reels from Israel’s devastating bombardments, here’s a brief history of the conflict using maps and charts.

By Mohammed Haddad and Alia Chughtai

AL JAZEERA
Published On 27 Nov 2023

Israel’s deadly bombardment of Gaza has killed nearly 15,000 people, including 10,000 women and children, in over 50 days, making it the deadliest war for the besieged Palestinian enclave till date.

Israel has rebuffed calls for a ceasefire as a four-day humanitarian truce comes to an end on November 28. It is unclear whether the truce will be extended.

The devastation of Gaza and the mounting death toll has triggered worldwide protests, bringing the decades-long issue to the centre-stage of global politics.
The Balfour declaration

The Israeli-Palestinian issue goes back nearly a century when Britain, during World War I, pledged to establish a national home for the Jewish people in Palestine under the Balfour Declaration

.
Jewish immigration to Palestine

A large-scale Jewish migration to Palestine began, accelerated by Jewish people fleeing Nazism in Europe. Between 1918 and 1947, the Jewish population in Palestine increased from 6 percent to 33 percent.

Palestinians were alarmed by the demographic change and tensions rose, leading to the Palestinian revolt from 1936 to 1939.

Meanwhile, Zionist organisations continued to campaign for a homeland for Jews in Palestine. Armed Zionist militias started to attack the Palestinian people, forcing them to flee. Zionism, which emerged as a political ideology in the late 19th century, called for the creation of a Jewish homeland.


The UN Partition Plan

As violence ravaged Palestine, the matter was referred to the newly formed United Nations. In 1947, the UN adopted Resolution 181, which called for the partition of Palestine into Arab and Jewish states, handing over about 55 percent of the land to Jews. Arabs were granted 45 percent of the land, while Jerusalem was declared a separate internationalised territory.



The city is currently divided between West Jerusalem, which is predominantly Jewish, and East Jerusalem with a majority Palestinian population. Israel captured East Jerusalem after the Six-Day War in 1967 along with the West Bank – a step not recognised by the international community.

The Old City in occupied East Jerusalem holds religious significance for Christians, Muslims, and Jews. It is home to Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, which is known to Muslims as al-Haram al-Sharif and to Jews as Temple Mount.

In 1981, the UN designated it a World Heritage Site.


The Nakba

Leading up to Israel’s birth in 1948, more than 750,000 Palestinians were ethnically cleansed from their homes by Zionist militias. This mass exodus came to be known as the Nakba or catastrophe.

A further 300,000 Palestinians were displaced by the Six-Day War in 1967.





Israel declared the annexation of East Jerusalem in 1980, but the international community still considers it an occupied territory. Palestinians want East Jerusalem as the capital of their future state.
The Oslo Accords

In 1993, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin signed the Oslo Accords, which aimed to achieve peace within five years. It was the first time the two sides recognised each other.
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A second agreement in 1995 divided the occupied West Bank into three parts – Area A, B and C. The Palestinian Authority, which was created in the wake of the Oslo Accords, was offered only limited rule on 18 percent of the land as Israel effectively continued to control the West Bank.


Israeli settlements and checkpoints

However, the Oslo Accords slowly broke down as Israeli settlements, Jewish communities built on Palestinian land in the West Bank, grew at a rapid pace.

The settlement population in the West Bank and East Jerusalem grew from approximately 250,000 in 1993 to up to 700,000 in September this year. About three million Palestinians live in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem.

(Al Jazeera)

The building of Israeli settlements and a separation wall on occupied territories has fragmented the the Palestinian communities and restricted their mobility. About 700 road obstacles, including 140 checkpoints, dot the West Bank. About 70,000 Palestinians with Israeli work permits cross these checkpoints in their daily commute.

Settlements are considered illegal under international law. The UN has condemned settlements, calling it a big hurdle in the realisation of a viable Palestinian state as part of the so-called “two-state solution”.


Blockade of Gaza

Israel imposed a blockade on Gaza in 2007 after the Hamas group came to power. The siege continues till date. Israel also occupies the West Bank and East Jerusalem – the territories Palestinians want to be part of their future state.

Israel imposed a total blockade on the Gaza Strip on October 9, cutting its supplies of electricity, food, water, and fuel in the wake of a surprise Hamas attack inside Israel. At least 1,200 people were killed in that attack.


Israel and Palestine now

This is what Israel and Palestine look like now.



Today, about 5 million Palestinians live in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem and 1.6 million Palestinians are citizens of Israel. This makes up about half of their total population. The other half lives in other countries, including Arab countries. There are about 14.7 million Jews around the world today, of which 84 percent live in Israel and the United States. The rest live in other countries including France, Canada, Argentina and Russia.







Data compiled by Sarah Shamim

KEEP READING
Analysis: Less than a day left on the Gaza pause, what are the prospects?

Palestinians welcome third set of prisoners in Gaza truce deal

US Navy thwarts seizure of Israel-linked cargo ship

Barbeques, suspicion and song as Israeli soldiers break from Gaza war

More than three dozen Palestinian prisoners have returned home in the occupied West Bank as part of a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas.

(27 Nov 2023) 
(AP video/Jalal Bwaitel, Imad Issied and Muammar Awad)

International

Moroccan Protestors support Palestinians, demand ending normalization with enemy Moroccan Protestors support Palestinians, demand ending normalization with enemy [27/November/2023] RABAT November 27. 2023 (Saba) - Moroccans' cities have witnessed massive marches in support and solidarity with the Palestinian people of Gaza as well as in rejection of normalization with the Zionist enemy. Tens of thousands of Moroccans participated in massive marches in the cities of Tangier and Casablanca, raising Palestinian and Moroccan flags, pictures of al-Aqsa, and pictures of the martyrs of the Zionist-American aggression against Gaza. The crowds chanted several slogans, including: (A hailing salute... to proud Gaza), (The people want... to overthrow normalization), (We are going to al-Quds... Martyrs in the millions), (The people want... to liberate Palestine), (The people of al-Aqsa Morocco... with the flood of al-Aqsa), (Gaza, Gaza... a symbol of pride), (The people of al-Aqsa, walk, walk... until victory and liberation). The crowds praised the Palestinian resistance, which imposed its conditions in the temporary humanitarian truce agreement, demanding the closure of the "Israeli" liaison office in Rabat. The crowds in the marches declared their rejection of the silence of the international community regarding what the Zionist enemy entity is committing against the Palestinian people. It is noteworthy that last December, Morocco resumed its diplomatic relationship with the Zionist entity after it had been frozen in 2000, amid widespread popular and political rejection within the country. H.H

WFP Chief Warns of Famine in Gaza Strip

The Director of the UN World Food Programme (WFP) Cindy McCain, in an interview, warned that Gaza is “on the brink of famine” 

TEHRAN (FNA)- The Director of the UN World Food Programme (WFP) Cindy McCain, in an interview with the US television channel CBS, warned that Gaza is “on the brink of famine” and called for more aid to the besieged territory as the end of the four-day truce draws near.

McCain, who is the widow of the late Republican Senator and presidential candidate John McCain, also said that a life-threatening form of malnutrition in children could increase by nearly 30 percent in the territory.

“First of all, the… bottom line here is that we need to get more aid in as… has been said, we’re looking at … possibly being on the brink of famine in this region,” McCain told CBS Face the Nation moderator Magaret Brennan.

“This is something that … will spread. And with that comes disease and… everything else that you can imagine,” she added.

She said she is hopeful that the delivery of services can be done for a longer period and “not just four days”, referring to the truce, which is set to end on Tuesday.

Israel unleashed a bombardment campaign against Gaza on October 7, after the Palestinian resistance groups launched Operation Al-Aqsa Storm in response to decades of violence against Palestinians.

Since the attack, Israel has bombarded the Palestinian territory, launched a ground offensive and severely restricted supplies of water, food and electricity.

A four-day truce took effect on Friday to allow the delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza after seven weeks of unrelenting bombardment.

According to the Gaza-based health ministry, so far nearly 15,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli strikes, most of them women and children.

Iran leader to visit Turkey as rapprochement continues over Gaza war


RFI

By: Dorian Jones

Issued on: 27/11/2023 - 

The Iranian president's visit to Turkey this week comes amid deeply strained bilateral tensions as a result of regional rivalries. However, Israel's assault on Gaza stands to alleviate those problems as Tehran and Ankara find common ground in condemning Israel, with Turkey also seeking to position itself as a mediator in the conflict.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raissi addresses a crowd gathered to protest in Tehran in support of the Palestinians in Gaza, 18 October 2023. 

© RFI/Atta Kenane

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's withering verbal attacks on Israel have put him on the same page as his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi, who is due to visit Turkey on Tuesday.

But Ankara is also concerned about contagion as the Gaza war draws in countries such as Iran and threatens to destabilise the region.
'Demoinising' Iran

"Turkey does not approve of demonising Iran. It can still have a dialog, and Turkey has the capacity to cooperate with Iran," says Bilgehan Alagoz, of the Centre for Iranian Studies, a Turkish thinktank.

Alagoz suggests Erdogan is well placed in his talks with Raisi to keep Iran out of the war: "Turkey also has a dialog with Israel. While there are problems with Israel, we still can talk with Israel and with others, including the United States and European countries."Turkey, Iran put rivalries aside as Gaza conflict provides common ground

Keeping Iran and its proxies out of the conflict is a priority for Israel and Turkey's Western allies.

Iran has a major role in arming Hamas, says Gallia Lindenstrauss, an analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

"It is difficult for Israel to concentrate on the Gaza front because the northern front in Israel, the front with Lebanon, is very also very tense," Lindenstrauss says, adding that, "of course, the northern front is all orchestrated by Iran".

Raisi in Turkey

Erdogan's talks with Raisi aren't expected to be confined to the war in Gaza. Until the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October, Turkish-Iranian tensions had been rising amid growing regional rivalry, in particular in the Caucasus.

Tehran is alarmed at the military successes of Azerbaijan's forces against ethnic Armenians in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave.

Iran is a strong ally of Armenia and sees Azerbaijan as an increasing threat to its regional influence. However, much to Iran's annoyance, Turkey strongly backs Azerbaijan with a military alliance.

"The recent rhetoric adopted by Iran towards Turkey has created some sensitivity, especially regarding the South Caucasus," says Alagoz.

"Since the beginning of Azerbaijan's liberation activities for the occupied territory in the South Caucasus, Iran has started to adopt anti-Turkey rhetoric."France announces sale of defensive weapons to Armenia as Turkey plays wargames with Azerbaijan
Battle of influence

Analysts also suggest that Tehran is worried Ankara is seeking to limit Iran's influence across the region. These fears have been stoked by deepening cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel.

Turkey's expanding its influence into central Asia is adding to Iran's concerns.

"Turkey's connection to central Asia is still a very serious problem because it's going to increase Turkey's influence here in the region, which Iran is not happy with," says Ilhan Uzgel, a political analyst with the Turkish news portal Kisa Dalga.

Tehran's advancing nuclear energy programme is also fuelling bilateral tensions. Turkey is worried that Iran is moving closer to developing a nuclear bomb and triggering a regional nuclear arms race.

But at least for now, the Middle East war and fears that it will spread are bringing the two countries closer.