Thursday, May 09, 2024

‘My community is still dying’ — How the dearth of Black women in clinical research worsens health disparities

byErica Hensley
May 8, 2024


A woman sits on an exam table during a routine check-up with her doctor. (FatCamera/Getty Images)


For many, the July 2023 announcement was a cause for celebration and optimism: The Food and Drug Administration had approved a new Alzheimer’s drug, Leqembi, that appeared to slow the progression of the disease in its earliest stages.

But would it help Black women, the group of people that data shows is most disproportionately impacted by the disease? Researchers wish they could say — but a critical shortage of Black women in the study leaves them unable to adequately assess the answer.

Only 10 Black women in the U.S. had received Leqembi when scientists were testing it — fewer than 1% of the some-1,800 participants in the 18-month trial. This, despite the fact that two women are diagnosed with Alzheimer’s for every man, and that Black women are twice as likely as white women to experience its devastating effects.

“That’s just bad science. It’s not representative of the people who are disproportionately affected,” says Carl Hill, chief diversity, equity and inclusion officer for the Alzheimer’s Association. “Without appropriate participation, it’s impossible to get a complete and accurate understanding of Alzheimer’s in the U.S., much less efficacy and safety.”

FDA spokespeople declined to answer questions about the Leqembi approval process, saying in a statement, “We continue to encourage sponsors to increase the enrollment of all racial and ethnic populations, including Black individuals, into their ongoing studies.” The lead drugmaker, Tokyo-based Eisai Co., said in a statement that while it “would have liked more African- Americans in [this] trial, it is important to remember that patients across all subgroups benefited from treatment with Leqembi.”

Why Black women and women of color in general are severely under-represented in trials like this is a complicated stew of issues that have federal health officials scrambling for answers and activists demanding more be done to erase the inequities. Some like Hill blame racism as a factor. Others note the dispiriting drop in voluntary participation by Black and Hispanic women in such trials. For example, Black participation saw the steepest drop over the past decade — from a peak of 12% in 2013 down to 7% in 2021, a far cry from their 13% share of the U.S. population, according to government statistics.

The reasons for this? Many think it harks back to a long memory by the African-American community of how scientific research once used them as guinea pigs. The well-documented mid-century Tuskegee experiment that withheld life-saving penicillin from Black men with syphilis still haunts both Black communities and research circles.

“Black folks remember Tuskegee,” says Nadine Spring, who manages community-based research, most recently at the Atlanta-based HIV-prevention group SisterLove. “Then you have, most of the time, a white research coordinator going to someone who looks like me and trying to say, ‘Hey, this study might benefit you.’” The response varies from, “I’m not going to be your guinea pig,” to “I’m interested, but I need more time,” Spring says.

The distrust has snowballed into its own stigma and created a narrative that misrepresents some communities as simply too “hard to reach,” Spring says. While understandable on one level, the reluctance has serious downsides. Without adequate representation in these types of landmark studies, efficacy of these life-saving drugs for Black women remains elusive — it’s possible they could be prescribed treatments that work well for the vast majority of the women in the study but not for them.

“Because certain groups, often women of color, haven’t been included in those trials, we may not actually have evidence for them,” says NiCole Buchanan, a psychology professor at Michigan State University who studies discrimination in research. “So now we have sub-standard for some being masked as gold standard for all.”

The Fuller Project analyzed National Institutes of Health trial data from 2018 to 2021, the most recent statistics available, and found that certain research areas stood out for their disproportionate under-representation of Black women. For example, although Black women are more likely than other women to die from cervical cancer, they make up just 3% of enrollment for vaccine research on HPV, the virus that can cause the cancer.

For ovarian cancer trials, Black female enrollment sits at 5%, though death rates are spiking for Black women while declining for others.

The clinical trials gap persists despite efforts to close it — efforts that activists think aren’t rigorous enough. Until researchers began in the 1990s sounding the alarm, the efficacy of a great deal of medical therapeutics was based almost exclusively on how they worked on white men. Thirty years ago, Congress directed the NIH to include an equitable number of women in clinical trials. Since then, white women have gained ground, but Black women largely continue to be left out. By 2020, there was one Black woman for every 10 white women in FDA-approved drug trials, according to research.

There are some signs of change. In an effort to get more people of color into clinical trials, the NIH launched the ‘All of Us’ campaign in 2018 to build a single repository of diverse participants that can be used for various studies. Of the nearly one million participants, only half provided race information, and they were majority white. But, because researchers can pick and choose participant data within the trove, they are starting to identify never-before seen genetic data that will inform future research. NIH offices in Bethesda, MD campaign to increase enrollment for their "All of Us" research project. (Photo by Erica Hensley/The Fuller Project)

In 2022, a congressionally mandated report from the National Academies of Sciences called for “urgent actions by federal agencies, Congress, journals, and others to improve the representation of racial and ethnic minority groups and other underrepresented populations in clinical trials and research.”

One finding was that clinical trial organizers may allow themselves to be too discouraged by the “community fear” issue when recruiting from communities of color. The approach makes the difference. Evidence shows that these communities “are no less likely, and in some cases are more likely, to participate in research if asked,” the report says. It notes that the design of trials are critical — that when organizers invest time with trusted community partners at the start of research design, meet patients where they are, and hire diverse recruitment staff — people of color are willing to participate.

And facing increased pressure from government watchdogs and influential researchers at the National Academy of Sciences to improve diversity, President Biden in 2022 signed a law that for the first time mandated the FDA to require “diversity action plans” from researchers. Since June 2022, the agency has been reviewing public comments to finalize the rule, which means drugmakers likely won’t have to submit plans until later this year.

FDA officials declined to comment on how and if researchers will be held accountable to follow the plans. And some worry that the law with its long list of “non-binding recommendations” doesn’t have the teeth to make substantial change.

That’s why some advocates like Hill of the Alzheimer’s Association say the federal government should mandate the composition of racial and gender participation in clinical studies. “When representation is a criteria for funding and approval, you will see a change,” he says.

But the NIH and FDA have been slow to force researchers — including those at pharmaceutical companies, universities and hospitals — to make trials more inclusive, and the harm is compounded by lack of data showing the extent of the problem, research shows.

President Biden in March announced a $200 million investment and prioritization for women’s health research, including a specific carve out for women of color. Researchers who focus on sex differences and health disparities have long called for this and widely celebrated the announcement — with some noting that holding federal agencies accountable to the new commitment will be a continued obstacle.

Equity advocates contend there is an obvious answer: diversifying the workforce that is conducting trials. When academic journals have editors of color, more researchers of color get published, according to the study “Racial Inequality in Psychological Research.”

In another widely noted study, doctors of color help patients of color improve health outcomes. Research enrollment diversifies when Black and brown researchers are in charge, other studies show. Currently, Black women comprise just 1% of research leads.

The Association of Community Cancer Centers recently developed an implicit bias training program for oncologists called “Just Ask.” Sometimes patients lacked access to trials simply because physicians worried that asking might overwhelm them, says Dr. Julie Gralow, chief medical officer for the American Society of Clinical Oncology.

“It wasn't malevolent,” she says, but the outcome was the same — excluding people of color. “It was a benevolent bias. You thought you were protecting the patient, but we should let the patient decide.”

The ordeal of Bridgette Hampstead, a resident of Seattle, illustrates the problems Black women sometimes face when confronting cancer. Hampstead was diagnosed with breast cancer in 1996 — a diagnosis she says was delayed because her doctor wouldn’t approve a mammogram, saying it was unnecessary. After finally demanding the screening, it showed the need for immediate treatment — a full mastectomy. She’s convinced the delay and invasive response could have been avoided if providers had been trained in more inclusive research, she says. Research from the American Cancer Society suggests the same. Clinical trials that might have helped her were available at the time but she says she was never offered one.

Since then, she’s devoted her life to helping Black women victims of cancer avoid similar ordeals. Her Seattle-based nonprofit, Cierra Sisters, derived from the Swahili word for “knowledge,” works with local Black women to ensure they have accurate information after a cancer diagnosis, get appointments with doctors who understand racial disparities and can access clinical trials.

Black women are 40% more likely to die from breast cancer than white women — a gap that has steadily widened since the 1990s, in part because the overall death rate has improved, research shows. Though Black and white women develop breast cancer at a similar rate, Black women are more likely to develop aggressive forms and are slower to get diagnosed.

“After 27 years you'd think it'd change, but it has not changed,” Hampstead said. “My community is still dying.”

 

CULTURE

AI American JesusON

Secular concerns about AI-generated art end when you die. With Christians, it’s more complicated.

For the secular… for the profane… for the fallen… artificial intelligence is a harbinger of a lifestyle change. It threatens the movies, it threatens the demos, it threatens the precious workflow. But for the Christian, AI is nothing less than a crisis of the spirit.

The big story we’ve heard lately is about “Shrimp Jesus,” an AI-generated figure composed of crustaceans. This avatar, and related oddities, clogged Facebook in the past few months with wildly viral posts. 404 Media’s Jason Koebler reported on the situation, wherein “hundreds of AI-generated spam pages are posting dozens of times a day and are being rewarded by Facebook’s recommendation algorithm.” 

Spam or scam, the Jesuses seemed to be proof of what’s called the dead-internet theory: Bots interacting with other bots, self-perpetuating and perfectly happy to evolve in a senseless hellscape of content inhospitable to humans. This reads like anthropocentric cynicism, where if it ain’t human, it must not be good. I like to think of the bots that perpetuate Shrimp Jesus as digital extremophiles, similar to the bacteria that thrive on the superheated volcanic vents at the bottom of the ocean. It’s not for us, but it seems to be having a good time.

Shrimp Jesus, tweet

Shrimp Jesus is a sign that bots are off in a corner of the internet, mumbling darkly to themselves. Photo credit: Fish Lady Abs / Twitter

That story, which was everywhere, might seem at first blush to be about AI and religion. It’s not, though; it’s about the malfunctioning of platforms. (Jesus isn’t used here for any kind of spiritual or political commentary, but only because his well-known image is primed for viral distribution.) But there’s another story that gives us a glimpse of the difficulties faced by the faithful. 

In April, a Christian group called Catholic Answers launched an animated chatbot called “Father Justin” that answers, you know, Catholic questions. Since a popular online pastime is breaking chatbots, people lobbed all sorts of things at the robo-cleric. Father Justin, predictably, went sideways — absolving sins, approving the use of Gatorade for baptism, and claiming to live in Assisi, ItalyReligion Unplugged pointed out that we’ve been here before: 

Nothing that happened during this cyber drama would have surprised anyone who paid close attention to the complex high-tech questions that surfaced in ancient faith traditions during the coronavirus pandemic, such as: Does watching an online Mass count as attending Mass?

The outlet then weighed in on the theological implications:

Creating digital “persons” is going to challenge “what Catholics believe technology can do and can’t do,” said Brett Robinson of the McGrath Institute for Church Life at the University of Notre Dame. “When you start debating what is ‘embodied’ and what is ‘disembodied,’ that takes us straight into questions that are going to make us uncomfortable. … Catholicism is an incarnate faith, and there’s no way around that.”

Robinson went on to say that “if you feel anxious about talking to a real priest, then that kind of human contact is precisely what you may be trying to avoid. Can you solve that problem with an app?” 

App developers think you can. Peruse the Sodom of the App Store and you’ll find multiple offerings that have run the text of the Bible through a large language model, so that the spiritually curious can ask questions and get, apparently, satisfying answers. (You can also submit prayers, or pray for others with a single click.) To judge from the comments in the App Store (take with a grain of salt), users get “clear concise answers that are backed by scripture.” Interestingly, some reviewers say they like that the chatbot will answer questions they feel too “awkward” or “embarrassed” to ask a person, which puts Robinson’s concern about “human contact” being “precisely what you may be trying to avoid” into sharp relief.

Free Bible Chat, app

The popularity of AI-powered Bible apps suggests that at least some of the faithful don’t mind getting spiritual guidance from a bot. Photo credit: Free Bible Chat

How to use artificial intelligence to augment a spiritual journey? This has become a core question for the faithful. Pope Francis, himself no stranger to AI-generated art, addressed the use of artificial intelligence in a January message:

The rapid spread of astonishing innovations, whose workings and potential are beyond the ability of most of us to understand and appreciate, has proven both exciting and disorienting. This leads inevitably to deeper questions about the nature of human beings, our distinctiveness and the future of the species homo sapiens in the age of artificial intelligence. How can we remain fully human and guide this cultural transformation to serve a good purpose? …

Human beings have always realized that they are not self-sufficient and have sought to overcome their vulnerability by employing every means possible. From the earliest prehistoric artifacts, used as extensions of the arms, and then the media, used as an extension of the spoken word, we have now become capable of creating highly sophisticated machines that act as a support for thinking. Each of these instruments, however, can be abused by the primordial temptation to become like God without God (cf. Gen 3); that is, to want to grasp by our own effort what should instead be freely received as a gift from God, to be enjoyed in the company of others.

AI Pope Francis coat

Pope Francis is a popular subject for AI art. He also has some opinions about AI’s spiritual implications. Photo credit: Gianluca Brugnoli / Twitter

Christian anxiety about AI is an analog to good-old secular anxieties — same worries about how the technology fits into our lives, about what it might replace, about whether and how we retain our humanity. But unless you’re religious (or reading Christian media), you’re probably not seeing the way the conversation plays out in Christian circles. That rhetoric doesn’t show up in the mainstream… though I would love to see tech bros under the hot lights of some Congressional subcommittee fielding queries from senators about “the primordial temptation to become like God without God.”

Not for nothing, but Martin Luther was uneasy about his era’s paradigm-shifting technology, too. Christian scholar David Bagchi writes that while “Luther once famously hailed printing as ‘the latest and greatest gift, by which God intends the work of true religion to be known throughout the world and translated into every tongue,’” he also 

had a notoriously ambivalent attitude towards what was still the new technology of the printing press. He could both praise it as God’s highest act of grace for the proclamation of God’s Word, and condemn it for its unprecedented ability to mangle the same beyond recognition.

You, like me, may find it interesting that, aside from the odd robot priest, AI text doesn’t seem to stir up as much controversy among Christians (the word isn’t The Word) as AI-generated images.

High-octane AI-art generators like Midjourney have made it possible for users to create images of a Jesus Christ who is far, far more of a snack than the one in the old portrait that Baptist grandmothers kept uncomfortably close to their bedsides. These are not the Shrimp Jesuses, Lord God of Facebook bots, but rather a modern incarnation of pious art. They’re all over Instagram and X and TikTok, along with other Biblical scenes that are designed as spectacle — less Charlton Heston and more King James Cinematic Universe. 

On TikTok and Instagram, an account called The AI Bible presents the Good Book as Summer Blockbuster. It also cleverly nods to what you might call the limitations of human imagination, or just the inertia of tradition, when it compares “what people think” something looks like (the Transfiguration, Moses talking to God) with how the Bible describes it. There’s a whole series depicting how Ezekiel describes the appearance of angels… which, quick Sunday School lesson:

Ezekiel 10:9-10

I looked, and I saw beside the cherubim four wheels, one beside each of the cherubim; the wheels sparkled like topaz. As for their appearance, the four of them looked alike; each was like a wheel intersecting a wheel.

Ezekiel 10:12

Their entire bodies, including their backs, their hands and their wings, were completely full of eyes, as were their four wheels.

Verily, the AI Bible hath generated what commenters call “Biblically accurate angels” as clusters of eyeballs and interlocking golden rings and orbs and feathers and something like celestial barbed wire.

Somewhat less epic is the output from an app called BiblePics. In its Selfies gallery, there’s Abel snapping his final moments as he runs from Cain. There’s Jesus and the gang at dinner, possibly, one feels, the last time they’ll all see each other for a while. Because sure enough, here’s one of Jesus carrying a (misshapen) cross to his crucifixion. And then there’s a “Bible cookout,” which is about what you’d imagine (“Jesus and his disciples fire up the grill”).

Selfie of Cain chasing Abel

In case you ever wanted to see an AI-generated selfie of Cain chasing Abel. Photo credit: BiblePics

Frankly, I can’t tell if this is a joke or what.

An August 2023 article in The Jerusalem Post talks to the Israeli creator of BiblePics: “Sinai Elihai, an esteemed former Googler, growth marketing adviser, and proud father,” who after talking to his young son about the Bible’s “lack of visual appeal and lengthy text,” created a platform “to let Gen Z ‘Binge the Bible.’”

On X, people scoff and argue about the spiritual morality of AI art: “AI is categorically unable to create sacred art under the influence of grace, which can be quite dangerous,” says one user; “ AI is not satanic, it is not a living being and it is not subject to Satan’s deceptions. While there are valid arguments against this statement, one must consider the good christian art it produces,” says another.

I’m swayed by the perspective of Atlanta-based illustrator Ross Boone:

One way Christians have historically interacted with art is through a spiritual practice called Visio Divina. This practice is an opportunity to invite God to speak to us by contemplatively listening to what he is saying while looking at an image. In my own experience, I’ve found that looking at AI art in this way is capable of moving me and evoking a response from me in ways that traditional Christian artwork and depictions of the Bible haven’t.

(Has he seen the crucifixion selfie?)

I usually have an idea of what I might see when I type Biblical themes into the AI generator, but I’m often driven to awe and wonder when the software renders images I hadn’t fathomed myself.

Selfie of Jesus carrying the cross

An AI-generated selfie attempting to depict Jesus carrying… a post to put in the yard of a house for sale? Photo credit: BiblePics

Catholics seem — seem; this is anecdotal — to be the most consistently resistant to AI-generated imagery, or at least less enthusiastic about the power of computers to render endless square-jawed Jesuses who are absolutely shredded.

The National Catholic Register, for one, leans toward the primacy of human artists, asking “Why is one far superior to the other?” The outlet quotes Gwyneth Thompson-Briggs, who is (per her website) “a sacred artist in the perennial Western tradition”:

Sacred art is not a composite of popular images on the subject. Sacred art is the work of a trained artist cooperating with the grace of inspiration to create a visual description of a supernatural reality. Machines are purely material and therefore cannot respond to the challenge of communicating a supernatural reality with visual metaphor. 

Where the biggest secular concerns about AI include threats to democracy and workforce, Thompson-Briggs gives voice to an even older danger than job insecurity. “Allowing technology to have such a heavy hand in the creation of an image opens the door to influences beyond the sphere of the guiding hand and mind of the artist,” she told the Register. “It is reasonable to think that the demonic could use this as an opportunity.”

AI Devil

Sure, there are depictions of the devil in AI-generated art, but what if the actual devil was inside the image? Photo credit: Julius H. / Pixabay

Kathleen Carr, president of the Catholic Art institute, doesn’t think AI-generated imagery is even art, “since it lacks a human’s imagination and hand in creating it.” Her indictment is total: “Artists mirror God by being co-creators, bringing beauty and order into the world in architecture, beauty and art.”

Meanwhile, Joshua Madden, a Catholic theologian at Oxford, goes farther, asking, “Is AI ‘Sacred’ Art Actually Sacrilegious?” He argues that it is: 

The use of AI seems to fail to live up to the standard of Christian worship — that it be rational and spiritual; and to pass off the technologically synthesized conglomeration of colored pixels we might call “AI art” would be to offer artificial worship. Thus, using AI art in the context of prayer or worship would be unworthy of the act.

Pope Francis, for his part, doesn’t seem to come down that hard, evincing the sort of wisdom and balance that makes me hope he gets a dispensation to live forever. In his January message, he writes:

A century ago, Romano Guardini reflected on technology and humanity. Guardini urged us not to reject “the new” in an attempt to “preserve a beautiful world condemned to disappear.” At the same time, he prophetically warned that “we are constantly in the process of becoming. We must enter into this process, each in his or her own way, with openness but also with sensitivity to everything that is destructive and inhumane therein.” And he concluded: “These are technical, scientific and political problems, but they cannot be resolved except by starting from our humanity. A new kind of human being must take shape, endowed with a deeper spirituality and new freedom and interiority.”

I keep coming back to the concept of Visio Divina. I can’t speak to sacred art as inspiration from the divine, or AI art as a vehicle for demonic interference, but I have gazed upon the crazy swirling eyeballs and interlocking golden rings of The AI Bible’s angels and felt… something. Not the Presence that sacred art prescribes, but something more like absence — absence of the familiar, absence of easy meaning. That which destabilizes one’s conception of reality, that which short-circuits the connection between expected and realized. 

Which sounds like an Eastern concept: emptiness. The sound of one hand clapping. The unhewn log. Kill the Buddha at the crossroads. But it also sounds like Romano Guardini and his “process of becoming.”

I don’t think that AI art is the empty vessel, exactly. But maybe it’s worth contemplating these strange unpredictable nonsensical creations of ours, if for no other reason than it might finally bring us closer to God, who gets it.

Photo credit: CoPilot AI

How UK gave AstraZeneca indemnity over its Covid jab which took pharma titan just 10 months to make in race to banish lockdowns - and why renowned experts insist now-withdrawn vaccine IS still safe despite ultra-rare clotting side effect


By JOHN ELY SENIOR HEALTH REPORTER FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 8 May 2024 |

AstraZeneca's Covid vaccine, developed by scientists from the prestigious Oxford University, was meant to be a post-Brexit success story.

Not only was it supposed to be a shining example of British ingenuity which would banish the devastating Covid pandemic and sentence lockdowns to history, it was also meant to demonstrate the UK's generosity in the global crisis, with the jab sold at cost, not for profit.

Ministers were so confident in its success that then-Health Secretary Matt Hancock privately labelled it the 'new Mini', a symbol of a revitalised Britain's place as a world leader

The pharmaceutical giant's decision to forego massive profits, and instead deliver jabs for the cost of a cup of coffee, even prompted the World Health Organization to label it a 'vaccine for the world'.

But in just a few short years, the vaccine has become a pariah, dragged through the courts by the families of those it has allegedly killed and maimed through a rare side effect missed in the original clinical trials.

One of those seeking compensation for injuries linked to the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine is father-of-two and IT engineer Jamie Scott (right). His wife Kate (left) welcomed the news the company was voluntarily withdrawing its 'marketing authorisation' from the EU

AstraZeneca Covid jab victims hail move to withdraw vaccine worldwide
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If successful, it will be the British taxpayer that foots the bill, which lawyers have estimated could amount to upwards of £250million under a deal struck between the pharma giant and ministers in the darkest days of the Covid lockdown.

The deal was to shield jab makers from the risk of being sued for any extremely rare adverse side effects missed in clinical trials to ensure the vaccines could be rolled out in the UK as soon as possible.

AstraZeneca is now withdrawing the vaccine from markets completely.

Despite the resulting panic over the landmark decision, experts today insisted that, overall, AstraZeneca's Covid vaccine is a safe and effective jab which undoubtedly saved millions of lives in Britain and around the world.

In fact, Professor Paul Hunter, a world-renowned expert in infectious diseases from the University of East Anglia, said the AstraZeneca jab had made a 'really valuable contribution to reducing the mortality and disease from Covid'.

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'Without the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine there would have been many more deaths from Covid,' he said.

'The mRNA vaccines (made by Pfizer and Moderna) could not have been available in sufficient amounts in the early months of 2021.'

In December 2020, as millions of Brits spent Christmas in lockdown, separated from their loved ones, a beacon of hope appeared.

Two Covid jabs had been granted for emergency use in the UK, the US-based Pfizer's vaccine using new mRNA based technology, and Britain's own AstraZeneca jab made using more traditional methods.

Although Pfizer was first out the gate, developed in just 9 months — as opposed to a decade, supply was hamstrung by global demand.

It also had to be kept at frozen temperatures making the rollout a logistical nightmare.

AstraZeneca's used viral vector technology, modifying an existing and harmless virus to deliver a piece of the Covid pathogen.

Clinical trials showed this enabled people's immune system to recognise and fight-off the virus, not only helping prevent serious illness and death but also paving a way out of the paralysing lockdown.

Both jabs were approved for 'emergency' authorisation in late 2020 with the Government offering indemnity to 'to secure access to vaccines with the expected benefits to public health and the economy alike much sooner than may have been the case otherwise,' according to documents tabled in Parliament.

Mr Hancock hailed the jab as a 'moment to celebrate British innovation' and 'light at the end of the tunnel just got brighter'.

'This vaccine will be made available to some of the poorest regions of the world at a low cost, helping protect countless people from this awful disease,' he stated at the time.

'It is a tribute to the incredible scientists at Oxford University and AstraZeneca whose breakthrough will help to save lives around the world.

'I want to thank every single person who has been part of this British success story.'

It came just weeks after Mr Hancock, who was later resigned after being caught kissing his aide in a breach of the Government's social distancing rules, famously shed a tear on national television following the first rollout of the Pfizer jab.

Boris Johnson, prime minister at the time, also lauded the AstraZeneca vaccine as 'a triumph for British science'.

Unlike the mRNA jabs, AstraZeneca's jab could be stored in normal fridges.

This meant the jab could be rolled out much faster and, of critical importance in a global pandemic, in countries that didn't have access to high-tech cold storage.

The development of both jabs was remarkable. Normally it takes years to develop a new vaccine, let alone be ready to roll it out on scale, yet this was accomplished in less than 12 months.

This was partly to do scientists developing technologies that would enable them to make a jab quickly in the event of a new pandemic, and the millions governments and companies were willing to spend on development and trials in 2020.



But a key part of how jabs were able to get from the lab to the production line so quickly was a little-known deal struck between ministers and pharma giants.

While the jabs had undergone clinical trials for both safety and efficacy there was an acknowledgment that rarer side effects could have been missed or miscalculated.

This could, in theory, have made the companies behind the jabs vulnerable to legal action.

To ensure the vaccines were made available as quickly as possible, ministers offered the firms indemnity against future action.

In practical terms, this meant if any unexpected and damaging side effects did occur it would be Government, and by extension the taxpayer, who would pick up the bill.

In a note tabled before Parliament in January 2021, Mr Hancock said: 'Willingness to accept appropriate indemnities has helped to secure access to vaccines with the expected benefits to public health and the economy alike much sooner than may have been the case otherwise.'

He also said, specifically on the AstraZeneca jab: 'I would like to stress that the data so far on this vaccine suggests that there will be no adverse reactions, and so no liability.'

After all, trails involving hundreds of volunteers, including in the UK, had shown impressive results and no major safety concerns.

Now Britain faces a potential bill of hundreds of millions as those damaged by the jab seek compensation for injuries or deaths suffered by themselves or their loved ones.

A specific side effect, missed in clinical trials simply because of how rare it was, is called thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS), or alternatively vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia (VITT).

Only officially spotted in March 2021, the complication causes people to suffer blood clots along with a low platelet count. Platelets typically help the blood to clot.

These clots can go on to cause death and disability. Some people suffered injuries to their brains whilst others have had to have limbs amputated.

The complication is exceedingly rare, given the millions of doses dished out during the roll-out. The risk is thought to be in the region of one in 50,000, though some estimates put it even lower.

Clotting cases were first spotted in the EU. Several nations on the continent went on to slow or even suspend their rollout of the jab.

It followed a war of words over the British-designed jab with European leaders like French president Emmanuel Macron, who sparked a diplomatic row by labelling it 'quasi-effective'.

Britain eventually followed its European neighbours, first stopping the jabs being used for people under 30 and then weeks later under 40.

Experts based this on younger groups being at less risk of Covid, meaning the benefits of being jabbed weren't worth the risk.

There is no evidence that mRNA jabs, like those made by Pfizer and Moderna, carry the same risk because they work on a different mechanism. However, they do have their own side effects, like any drug.

Experts today told MailOnline that the AstraZeneca jab should still be considered a success story.



The AstraZeneca jab was the most widely used in the UK during the initial rollout of the vaccination programme - before it was linked to a risk in blood clots

Dr Michael Head, senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton, said: 'The Oxford/AstraZeneca was an excellent vaccine, and a vital part of the UK and global pandemic response.

'It went through the correct levels of testing and has saved a huge number of lives and reduced hospitalisations.'

He added the jabs relegation was less to do with safety concerns and more due to mRNA jabs being, essentially, a superior option.

Because of mRNA technology embedded in the Pfizer and Moderna jabs, they are still used as booster doses.

The mRNA jabs can be easily updated too, to target new Covid variants, hence why ministers have favoured them ahead of traditional tools.

'Despite the success of the AstraZeneca jab during the height of the pandemic, the key reason for the withdrawal is likely to be that other Covid vaccines, such as Pfizer and Moderna, are essentially better products,' Dr Head said.

'They have higher effectiveness, and the mRNA platforms are more easily adapted towards the latest Covid variants.'

Professor Hunter added: 'If we didn't have the mRNA vaccines, which are more effective and had fewer serious adverse reactions we would still be using the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine today.

'The benefits would still have outweighed the harms.'

Professor Hunter added that it is unlikely the blood clot side effect could have spotted before the jab was deployed given the side effect's rarity, saying it could 'never be detected with certainty until millions of people have received the vaccine'.

Professor Adam Finn, a member of the Government's vaccine advisory panel, at the University of Bristol, told the BBC the AstraZeneca was 'was what lifted us out of the catastrophe that was unfolding at the time' in combination with the Pfizer jab.

Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist from the University of Warwick, also credited the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine with saving 'millions of lives', adding its development was an example of the climate experts were working in at the time.

'The pressures of the pandemic required a different approach, overlapping the traditional phases of vaccine development and manufacture without compromising safety and efficacy testing,' he said.

He said such rapid development carried 'significant financial risk to developers and manufacturers'.


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Researchers believe the rare side effect occurs due to the modified cold virus lurking in the jab having an adverse effect on platelets in the blood, triggering clotting

'There was no guarantee the Covid vaccine candidate would be safe and effective and manufacturing scale-up to commercial scale was undertaken before establishment of clinical proof of activity,' he said.

Professor Ian Jones, a virologist at the University of Reading, also said that the rapid development of the vaccine 'undoubtedly saved lives' in spite of the rare side effect.

But he added that doesn't mean there aren't potential lessons to be learned on if the dangers posed by the jab could have been spotted earlier.

'The issue will always be whether there ought to have been a temporary suspension and adjusted guidance as soon as VITT cases were observed and if the shift to alternates, which happened anyway, should have happened sooner,' he said.

Professor Jones added that while national pride could have played a role in the UK's speed of deploying the Covid vaccine, VITT was so rare there was almost no chance of spotting it in clinical trials.

'The nationalism was not helpful, it's science, not a gladiator contest, but the truth is that the VITT incidence rate was such that it could not have been detected in the clinical trials, given their scale,' he said.

'It was only on mass roll-out that the cases were noted.'

He added that one of the lasting impacts of the AstraZeneca saga could be relegation of viral vector vaccines.

'My personal view is that the case for 'vectored' vaccines has been weakened by the history of events,' Professor Jones added.

'I doubt we will see (one like AstraZeneca's) used ever again at the same scale and in the same way.'

Read More
Review planned for vaccine payouts as claims soar following the pandemic


AstraZeneca wasn't the only company to use a viral vector vaccine.

American pharmaceutical titan Johnson & Johnson also used the technology to develop their own single-dose Covid jab.

Similar to AstraZeneca, that jab was also linked to rare cases of blood clots and is no longer commercially available.

AstraZeneca jab also made history in another way, for its decision to forego massive profits and deliver the vaccine for just £3.60 the minimum needed to cover costs of its production.

The decision, naturally unusual for multinational business, was lauded at the time.

It wasn't to last. In November 2021 the company said it would start charging more for its Covid vaccine in reflection that the dangers posed by pandemic were fading.

The company didn't specify the new price but said the rise would be less than 20 per cent off the previous cost.

AstraZeneca also committed to continue to charge poorer nations the lower at-cost price.

A new approach to measuring poor-quality employment

Although policymakers often discuss poverty, they rarely address its connections with poor-quality employment. If they do, they typically focus on low incomes. Yet as Kirsten Sehnbruch, Mauricio Apablaza and James Foster explain, there are many employment conditions beyond wages that can negatively affect the wellbeing of workers and often exacerbate each other. Drawing on recent studies, they illustrate how a multidimensional measure of poor-quality employment could be applied to understand deprivation in labour markets better.

In public policy and economics, a “bad” job tends to mean a low-income one. Yet employment conditions such as an unstable job, a short-term contract or unpredictable working hours and associated pay can also have a significant negative impact on the wellbeing of workers. Moreover, such employment conditions tend to compound each other.

For this reason, it is difficult to capture poor-quality employment fully using simple measures like low wages or precarious contracts. These measures are unidimensional and do not reflect the fact that many workers are deprived in more than one aspect of their employment conditions. Instead, it is necessary to adopt a multidimensional approach that accounts for overall employment conditions.
Measuring poor-quality employment

If wages alone should not be used as an indicator of poor-quality employment, how do we conceptualise and define an appropriate measure? In a new study, we address this issue using the Alkire and Foster (AF) method to construct a multidimensional and synthetic measure of poor-quality employment.

Following the OECD, we select three dimensions that are generally deemed important in the literature on job quality. These dimensions are “earnings”, “stability and security” and “working conditions”. Figure 1 presents a visual illustration of how these dimensions overlap.

Figure 1: Dimensions of poor-quality employment



Note: For more information, see the authors’ accompanying paper.

Each of these dimensions can be populated with available variables. For instance, in countries with excessively high levels of job rotation, we might include “job tenure” or “short-term contracts” as a variable in the “stability and security dimension”. Alternatively, in countries where high temperatures make it undesirable to work outside, we might include “place of work” as a variable in the “working conditions” dimension.

To select appropriate variables and decide which employment conditions are acceptable or not, the literature on multidimensional poverty has either been based on technical analysis and expert opinion, as in the case of the UNDP or the World Bank’s Multidimensional Poverty Index (Measure), or, in the case of individual countries, expert and stakeholder commissions set up to determine the composition of indices. In the case of poor-quality employment, a similar approach can be adopted.

Once the dimensions and variables that compose a measure of poor-quality employment have been selected, the AF method uses a double cut-off strategy that allows the measure to focus on those workers with overlapping deprivations. The first cut-off divides each of the indicators of achievement vectors into discrete deprivations to identify which employment conditions are considered “poor”. Then the weighted sum of deprivations provides a counting vector that captures the accumulated distribution of detrimental conditions.
Poor-quality employment in Europe

Recent applications have mostly applied this approach to Latin America, but a similar measure would also work in Europe. In fact, a more complex measure of poor-quality employment can be established in Europe due to the availability of comparable data on the most essential employment conditions. Table 1 lays out a proposal for which variables could be included in such a measure, along with their weights and cut-offs.

Table 1: Dimensions, variables, weights and cut-offs for a measure of employment deprivation in Europe



Note: For more information, see the authors’ accompanying paper.

Using this approach, we can calculate the poor-quality employment levels across Europe. The overall cut-off line for the measure is one third (33%), i.e. to be considered as having poor-quality employment, a worker must be deprived in at least 33% of the overall measure. For example, a worker is considered to have poor-quality employment if they fall below the wage threshold defined by the measure, or if they have a fixed-term contract job of less than three years duration combined with being an involuntary part-time worker with a low level of autonomy.

Key to this method is that workers who are deprived in more employment conditions show up as being more “intensely deprived” than workers who are suffering from fewer deprivations. Figure 2 shows deprivation levels and the intensity of deprivation across European countries included in the European Working Conditions Survey.

Figure 2: Deprivation and intensity of deprivation in Europe



Note: Authors’ calculations with data from the European Working Conditions Survey, 2015. This is the last available data from this survey as the subsequent 2020 wave was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. For more information, see the authors’ accompanying paper.

As Figure 2 illustrates, poor-quality employment levels vary significantly across countries, from 7.7% in Denmark to 31.7% in Greece, with Turkey and Albania constituting outliers at around the 40% mark. Some Southern European countries, such as Spain or Cyprus, also have higher levels of poor-quality employment (closer to 30%). It is interesting to note that several Eastern European countries (e.g. Slovenia and the Czech Republic) show both low levels of deprivation and intensity. Overall, we find that most workers are deprived in more than one dimension or variable of the measure, which illustrates the fact that it is not enough to look at poor-quality employment from a unidimensional perspective.

Implications for policymakers

Several conclusions that are relevant for policymakers emerge from our work. First, our research highlights the importance of viewing employment from a multidimensional perspective, emphasising that workers are generally deprived in more than one dimension, which can compound vulnerabilities. It is not enough to focus policy attention only on the working poor, on informal workers or on low-skilled workers. All these measures used on their own would miss important characteristics of employment that affect the wellbeing of employed workers.

Second, the literature on which our work is based shows that a measure of multidimensional employment deprivations is useful for identifying the most vulnerable individual workers or groups of workers in a labour market. Such a measure would provide policymakers with a more precise tool for focusing fiscal resources, both in terms of income support provided as well as for helping workers overcome deprivation through targeted investment in vocational training or adult education.

Third, it is clear policymakers systematically neglect some aspects of employment that are important to workers, such as job stability. This points to the need for regulatory reforms that level the playing field for workers with different types of contracts and employment conditions, thus disincentivising employers from using flexible or precarious forms of hiring when this is not appropriate.

Fourth, governments and international institutions should be investing more in generating better, more comparable data on employment conditions and on job characteristics. Labour force and household surveys with large samples across Europe should include a broader and more comprehensive set of questions on employment conditions. The European Working Conditions Survey is undertaken too infrequently and its sample sizes are too small to undertake meaningful analysis that can inform policymakers.

Finally, our research highlights that social and labour policies cannot be viewed or constructed in isolation. For example, reforming a pension system (such as by increasing the pensionable age or levels of contributions) may be an ineffective solution if the main reason why workers receive low pensions is because they did not consistently contribute to a system, either because they worked informally or never held a stable job.

For more information, see the authors’ accompanying paper at LSE Public Policy Review

Note: This article gives the views of the authors, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: metamorworks / Shutterstock.com


About the authors

Kirsten Sehnbruch  a British Academy Global Professor and a Distinguished Policy Fellow in the International Inequalities Institute at the London School of Economics and Political Science. She is currently Acting Director of the International Inequalities Institute.

Mauricio Apablaza is a Visiting Fellow in the International Inequalities Institute at the London School of Economics and Political Science, Director of Research in the School of Government at the Universidad del Desarrollo, Chile, and a Research Associate of the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) at Oxford University.

James Propagates is a Visiting Professor in the International Inequalities Institute at the London School of Economics and Political Science, the Oliver T Carr Jr Professor of International Affairs and Professor of Economics at George Washington University, and a Research Associate of the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) at Oxford University.

Posted In: Latest Research | LSE Comment | Politics
DeepMind’s AI can ‘predict how all of life’s molecules interact with each other’




A DeepMind model of a 3D molecular structure from a common cold virus 
(Google DeepMind)


By Nilima Marshall, 
PA Science Reporter
Today 

Artificial intelligence can now be used to predict how all of life’s molecules interact with each other with “unprecedented accuracy”, scientists have said.

The program, called AlphaFold 3, could help supercharge the hunt for new drugs and treatments for some of humanity’s most devastating diseases, such as cancer, Parkinson’s, malaria, tuberculosis and many more, according to its creators Google DeepMind.

AlphaFold 3 is able to envision how the complex shapes and networks of molecules – present in every cell in the human body – are connected and how the smallest of changes in these can affect biological functions that can lead to diseases.

It can also help scientists predict how these molecules will interact with potential treatments, such as antibodies and drugs.




A 3D rendering of a protein (DeepMind)

Sir Demis Hassabis, founder and chief executive of London-based DeepMind, said the program gives researchers a “toolset”, that can “increase the speed of the drug discovery process massively” and “transform our understanding of the biological world”.

Every living cell operates with what researchers describe as “molecular machines” made up of proteins, DNA, small molecules known as ligands, and many more.

“By seeing how they interact together, across millions of types of combinations, can we start to truly understand life’s processes,” the DeepMind team wrote in its blog.

When provided with a list of molecules, AlphaFold 3 is able to generate their joint 3D structure, predicting how they would all fit together.

The team said AlphaFold 3, which powers its free tool known as AlphaFold Server, is 50% more accurate than the best traditional methods available and can produce predictions within seconds that would normally take months or years to do.

Dhavanthi Hariharan, product manager at DeepMind, said the AlphaFold Server is “a one-stop solution to generate lots of biological molecules by clicking a few buttons”.

“It is currently the most accurate tool in the world for predicting how proteins interact with other molecules.”


The DeepMind team said AlphaFold 3 could help supercharge the hunt for new drugs and treatments for some of humanity’s most devastating diseases (Alamy/PA)

Sir Demis said the tool builds on the “big milestone moment in structural biology” of AlphaFold 2, an earlier model that predicted the structures of almost every protein made by the human body.

In December 2020, AlphaFold was recognised as a solution to the 50-year-old grand challenge of protein structure prediction by the organisers of the Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction (Casp).

Details of AlphaFold 3 – which also involved a team of experts at DeepMind spin-off Isomorphic Labs – have been published in the journal Nature.

The team said more work is needed to improve the accuracy of the models, which will “incur an additional computational cost”.

Matthew Higgins, EP Abraham chair of structural biology at the University of Oxford, who has been using AlphaFold to study malaria vaccine candidates, said the tool “will make a huge difference to the ability of scientists across biomedical research to understand how the machinery in our cells works”.

Commenting on AlphaFold 3, Dr Nicole Wheeler, Birmingham Fellow at the Institute of Microbiology and Infection, University of Birmingham, said it “offers a lot of promise in expanding what we can do with these AI tools for understanding and engineering biology, like designing biological parts to control the expression of genes or designing small molecules to treat disease”.
Chemicals in flavoured vapes could be very toxic when heated – study



Chemicals in flavoured vapes could be very toxic when heated – study (Jacob King/PA)


By Nina Massey,
 PA Science Correspondent
Today

Chemicals in flavoured vapes could be highly toxic when heated, new research suggests.

The study found that 505 hazardous chemicals, including 127 which are acutely toxic, and 153 health hazards, are formed as a result of vaping.

Researchers used AI to simulate the effects of heating chemicals found in 180 vape flavours.

The scientists suggest their approach may help to reveal the longer-term health risks of vaping in advance of clinical diseases emerging in the general population.

As vaping is a new and unprecedented stress to the human body... it seems prudent to strictly limit the number of chemical entities in e-liquidsStudy authors

Liquid flavouring in e-cigarettes is heated to high temperatures, so that it forms vapour which is then inhaled.

The original source for the flavourings comes from the food industry, where they are safe, but they were not intended to be heated to high temperatures and inhaled, the study suggests.

Study authors Donal O’Shea, and Dan Wu, from the Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland, and Akihiro Kishimoto from 1 IBM Research – Tokyo, Japan, wrote: “The aerosols produced by e-cigarette vaping contain immensely complex uncharacterised mixtures of pyrolysis products, the health implications of which are, as yet, mostly unidentified.

“In advance of health effects of vaping becoming apparent in the general population, AI can be exploited to give guidance to the public, policy makers and health care professionals.

They added: “As vaping is a new and unprecedented stress to the human body, with the ability to generate pyrolysis products more toxic that their parent compounds, it seems prudent to strictly limit the number of chemical entities in e-liquids.”

Jacob George, professor of cardiovascular medicine and therapeutics, University of Dundee – who was not involved in the study, said: “There are close to 40,000 different flavours in the market worldwide today and making sense of their effects will require a combination of techniques including automated mapping algorithms and creation of neural networks such as this.

“While this study cannot give us definitive answers of the risks of flavoured vapes on human health, this study may be a helpful early step to identifying signals that could then lead to further, more in depth research into heat-induced breakdown of chemicals used in flavourings

“This study has combined artificial intelligence with previously known published information to predict that when heating a combination of chemicals in flavoured vapes there might result in a harmful toxicant being produced, and these predictions can then be tested with further studies.

“There is, as yet, very little good-quality evidence of either safety or harm of these flavourings and so I welcome novel strategies as employed by these researchers.”

The findings are published in the Scientific Reports journal.