Cocoa Rises in Quieter Trading as More Analysts See Price Peak

Ilena Peng and Celia Bergin
Fri, May 10, 2024 




(Bloomberg) -- Cocoa futures edged higher in New York in relatively subdued trading as more market watchers say this year’s historic rally has peaked.

Futures rose as much as 2.4% in New York, reversing losses from earlier in the day. Volatility remains high in the market as open interest is low, but the magnitude of price moves has been smaller compared to the swings seen in recent weeks.

Rabobank analyst Paul Joules said in a Friday report that the cocoa rally has peaked, with lower production this season “now fully incorporated in the market price.” However, the world is expected to be in deficit both this year and the following, making prices unlikely to return to “normal” levels quickly.

“A combination of weakening global demand and production responses, particularly from countries without a fixed farmgate price, will help alleviate the pronounced uncertainty baked into current futures pricing,” he said. Still, “it’s likely that inflated cocoa prices will stick around for the next few years.”

Joules sees New York prices easing to an average of $7,000 a metric ton in the fourth quarter. Last week, Citi Research analysts revised their price target for the next three months down to $8,500 a ton, saying that the recent selloff lent more confidence that prices had peaked.

New York futures are currently trading just below $9,000 a ton, after jumping as much as 15% on Tuesday — the biggest intraday move since 1960 — to recover from a steep slide last week. Prices had soared to a record above $11,000 a ton in mid-April on the back of severe shortages.

In the near term, some showers are expected for West African nations like Ivory Coast and Ghana in the next five days, which “would aid some crop growth and could slightly improve soil moisture for some areas,” according to forecaster Maxar Technologies Inc.

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U$ Fed Flags Rising Delinquencies in Commercial Real Estate Loans

Ben Bain
Fri, May 10, 2024 



(Bloomberg) -- Banks are preparing for further losses as delinquencies in loans tied to office space continue to rise, according to the Federal Reserve.

The Fed said Friday that the rate of late payments on some commercial real estate loans had surged to above its pre-pandemic level. Officials at the central bank are focused on “improving the speed, force and agility of supervision, as appropriate,” the Fed said in a semiannual report.

US bank regulators, including the Fed, have been sounding alarms about the commercial real estate market. About a year ago, officials asked lenders to work with creditworthy borrowers that are facing stress in the sector. Property owners have come under pressure as borrowing costs have soared.

Potential risks were spotlighted earlier this year by the troubles at New York Community Bancorp, fueled by concerns linked to a portfolio that included billions of dollars in apartment loans in New York’s rent-regulated complexes.

Read More: Powell Says US Banking System Can Withstand Threats From CRE

Despite the concerns, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials have said the US banking system is strong enough to cope with the CRE risks.

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Big Oil is doing way better under Biden than under Trump

Oil and natural gas executives should be careful what they wish for.

Rick Newman
·Senior Columnist

Yahoo Finance
Fri, May 10, 2024

Big Oil has chafed under President Biden, who has trash-talked fossil fuels and aggressively pushed to decarbonize the US economy. Donald Trump, by contrast, says “drill, baby drill” and has reportedly promised to give energy lobbyists everything on their wish list if their firms back his 2024 presidential campaign.

Irony alert: The fossil fuel industry has done far better during Biden’s presidency than it did during Trump’s in terms of profitability, stock performance, and production. Some of Trump’s promised policies, in fact, could lead to the same sort of oversupply that kept consumer prices low during his presidency but wrecked oil and gas financials.

Trump reportedly hosted oil executives at his Mar-a-Lago estate recently and listened to their complaints about onerous regulations under the Biden administration. There’s truth to that: Biden has raised the cost of drilling on federal land, imposed new requirements to reduce methane emissions, paused the approval of new natural gas export permits, and taken other steps that add cost and complexity to fossil fuel extraction.

Yet the industry is hardly hurting. The energy sector’s profit margin in 2023 averaged 11.3%, according to S&P Capital IQ. Wall Street forecasts for 2024 are similar. That would put the average energy sector profit margin for Biden’s four years at around 11%.

An oil pumpjack operates in Signal Hill, south of Los Angeles, California, on April 21, 2020, a day after oil prices dropped to below zero as the oil industry suffered steep falls in benchmark crudes due to the ongoing global coronavirus pandemic. (FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images) (FREDERIC J. BROWN via Getty Images)

During Trump’s four years, the energy sector profit margin was basically 0. That includes the wipeout year of 2020, when the COVID pandemic brought travel to a halt and sent oil prices plummeting. Excluding 2020, the average energy margin was just 4.5%. In each of Trump’s four years, energy profits were lower than in every year of Biden’s presidency.

ExxonMobil (XOM), the nation’s largest energy firm, reflects the performance of the whole sector. It had record profits in 2008, but net income dropped sharply during the 2010s. Then, in 2020, Exxon lost a staggering $22.4 billion. The oil giant recovered, and in 2022 turned in a new record performance, earning $55.7 billion.

As with many elements of the economy, the effect of any given president’s policies is far less important to the energy sector than what’s going on in global markets. Around 2012, during the Obama administration, the hydraulic fracturing revolution generated a boom in American oil production. That wasn’t because of anything Obama did. It was because of new technology and aggressive private-sector investment.

For the next several years, drillers focused on gaining market share, assuming profitability would follow. That production boom made the United States the world’s largest producer of both oil and natural gas, which is still the case today. The OPEC+ oil-producing nations fought back by boosting their own production, which kept oil and gasoline prices subdued.

But low prices for consumers came at the expense of profitability for drillers. From 2015 through 2020, the US energy sector was the worst performer among 11 industries in terms of profitability.

The wipeout in 2020, when oil prices briefly turned negative, transformed the industry. Since then, drillers and their investors have prioritized profitability and invested less in new capacity. Even so, US oil production has hit new record highs under Biden, driven mainly by high prices that make increased production lucrative. And unlike the 2010s, the OPEC+ nations have been limiting their own output to keep prices up rather than flooding the market to protect share.

Trump has reportedly promised oil executives that he’ll revoke many of Biden’s green energy rules and take other steps favorable to fossil fuels, such as speeding drilling permits and allowing more extraction from federal territories. In exchange, Trump wants the industry to pump $1 billion into his 2024 presidential campaign. But Trump also wants lower energy prices for consumers, and he might find that energy firms prefer less production and higher prices over more production and lower prices.

Biden is obviously no friend of Big Oil, but any policy that disincentivizes fossil fuel production — which is what Biden is trying to do — effectively pushes prices higher. And when prices go higher, drillers earn more. Don’t expect oil CEOs to thank Biden, but his antipathy toward fossil fuels isn't nearly as damaging as they might want you to think.

Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter at @rickjnewman.

Police prevent environmental activists from storming Tesla factory in Germany

The Canadian Press
Fri, May 10, 2024



German police said Friday they had prevented hundreds of demonstrators from storming Tesla’s factory near Berlin during protests against the pioneering electric carmaker over its environmental footprint.

Crowds of demonstrators gathered near the Grunheide factory, Tesla’s only European production base, on Friday carrying banners complaining about water consumption at the plant and advocating for public transport over private cars.

Activists have been protesting in a forest near the plant since February over concerns about water and plans to cut trees to make way for an expansion of the plant, which opened in early 2022. In March, a suspected arson attack on an electricity pylon claimed by a far-left group knocked out power supplies to the factory for nearly a week, interrupting production.

Company CEO Elon Musk at the time called the culprits the “dumbest eco-terrorists on Earth” and said anti-Tesla protesters were misguided for aiming to halt production of electric vehicles rather than those powered by fossil fuels.

During Friday's protest march at a nearby train station, “hundreds of participants ran into the forest and tried to get onto the Tesla site,” police spokesman Mario Heinemann said on ntv television. “We prevented that with our forces.”

Social media footage showed black-clad protestors, many wearing medical masks, running over rough ground toward the factory boundary, and riot police using pepper spray in an attempt to turn them back.

Police said demonstrators also blocked a nearby highway and a railway line, and set off fireworks at an airfield where Tesla stores new cars.

Police detained several people temporarily, German news service dpa reported.

“Companies like Tesla are happy to destroy habitats for their own profit,” said Ole Becker, a spokesman for “Disrupt Tesla," a group that helped organize the protest. “Instead of SUVs for the few, we must build buses and trains for the many.”

The Associated Press

Mock coffins fill a square in Milan in a protest over workplace safety in Italy

Fri, May 10, 2024 



MILAN (AP) — Mock coffins filled one of Milan’s most famous squares Friday in a protest organized by Italy's second-largest union to raise awareness over workplace deaths.

Protesters lined up 172 cardboard coffins in Piazza La Scala to symbolize the exact number of workers who died on the job last year in the northern Lombardy region alone.

The UIL labor union said that it was demanding that both the government and businesses do more to protect Italian workers.

“Today is a day of anger, of anguish, because behind every coffin that we have put out here there are first names and last names,” explained UIL union leader Enrico Vezza, noting that 41 workers have already lost their lives in Lombardy this year.

The union’s campaign is titled “Zero Deaths.” A sign at the center of the piazza showed the number of workers who have died in the workplace since 2018, with a peak of 1,709 in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic sent deaths figures spiraling upwards in Italy.

Last year, 1,041 people died in the workplace in Italy.

According to European statistics agency Eurostat, Italy ranks eighth among European countries in fatalities at work, with an incidence of 2.66 per 100,000 employed, against the EU average of 1.76.

Friday’s protest comes amid a heated debate over workplace safety in Italy, following a series of fatalities across the country.

Earlier this month, five workers died at a sewage treatment plant near the southern city of Palermo, Sicily. In April, seven workers were killed in an explosion that collapsed several levels of an underground hydroelectric plant in northern Italy, while in mid-February five constructions workers died after a concrete beam collapsed at a supermarket building site in Florence.

The Associated Press

Exxon Pleads Not Guilty in Guyana to Misstating Equipment Value

Denis Chabrol
Fri, May 10, 2024



(Bloomberg) -- Exxon Mobil Corp. and one of its suppliers pleaded not guilty in a Guyana court Friday to charges related to overstating the value of oil-well equipment on a customs declaration by 200 times to about $12 billion.

The oil company’s local unit, Exxon Mobil Guyana Limited, is accused of making and subscribing to a false declaration. The supplier, Trinidad-based Ramps Logistics, is charged with making an untrue declaration. A magistrate adjourned the case until June 28.

Exxon and Ramps have said the issue stemmed from a clerical error by the contractor in late 2023 that denoted the value of equipment in US dollars instead of Guyanese dollars. A Guyana dollar is worth about one-half of a US cent.

In a statement, Exxon’s Guyana office said the mistake did not lead to any loss in revenue to the nation or its tax agency. The information on the customs declaration is not used to calculate any cost recovery or taxes, according to the statement. Exxon says it’s cooperating with the investigation and has provided the Guyana Revenue Authority with the corrected value.

“We are dedicated to ethical practices,” Exxon said in its statement. “Mistakes are promptly corrected when uncovered.”

The prosecutor in the case, Guyana Revenue Authority Deputy Commissioner Jason Moore, said the investigation is ongoing

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

After layoffs, Musk says Tesla to spend $500 million on charging network

Reuters
Updated Fri, May 10, 2024 


(Reuters) -Tesla will spend more than $500 million this year to expand its fast-charging network, CEO Elon Musk said on Friday, days after abruptly laying off employees who were running the business.

"Just to reiterate: Tesla will spend well over $500M expanding our Supercharger network to create thousands of NEW chargers this year," Musk said in a post on his social media platform X.

"That's just on new sites and expansions, not counting operations costs, which are much higher," he said.

After the layoffs last week, Musk said Tesla planned to expand the Supercharger network but at a slower pace for new locations.


EV makers have been adopting Tesla's North American Charging Standard, making the company's superchargers closer to becoming the industry standard at the expense of the rival Combined Charging System.

However, Musk's decision to gut the electric-vehicle charging team is scrambling plans for rolling out new fast-charging stations and may delay President Joe Biden's efforts to electrify U.S. highways.

The Biden administration has doled out $5 billion to states over five years to build 500,000 EV chargers as part of the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure program, and Tesla has been among the biggest winners of those federal funds so far.

(Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva and Arun Koyyur)

ALBERTA

Enbridge says carbon storage project still alive in spite of Capital Power decision


The Canadian Press
Fri, May 10, 2024 




CALGARY — Enbridge Inc.'s proposal to build a major carbon storage hub in Alberta remains on the table, the company said Friday, in spite of Capital Power's recent decision to shelve its own $2.4-billion project associated with the plan.

Enbridge executive vice-president Colin Gruending said the move by Capital Power to cancel a high-profile CCUS project proposed for its Genesee natural gas-fired power near Edmonton is "disappointing."

But he added another proposed carbon capture project in the area, at Heidelberg Materials' cement plant, remains in the works and keeps Enbridge's own proposed storage hub alive.

"That (Heidelberg) project has garnered some more financial support, and we'll be working with them to consider FID (final investment decision) later this year," Gruending said told a conference call with analysts to discuss the Enbridge's latest financial results.


"So the Wabamun Open Access Hub will generally continue."

CCUS — or carbon capture, utilization and storage — is a technology that traps harmful emissions from industrial processes and stores them deep underground to prevent them from entering the atmosphere.

Pipeline company Enbridge and electricity generator Capital Power agreed in 2021 to jointly evaluate CCUS solutions in Alberta. Capital Power had proposed to build a carbon capture facility at its Genesee plant, while Enbridge would build the storage hub.

But, Capital Power said last week that while it believes its Genesee carbon capture project is technically viable, it concluded the economics don't work.

Enbridge has already received permission from the government of Alberta to develop the underground hub, dubbed the Wabamun Open Access Hub.

The company's plan is for the hub to be scalable to meet the carbon storage needs of multiple industrial emitters in the area, making it potentially one of the largest underground CCUS hubs in the world.

The Heidelberg Materials CCUS project, which would connect to the Wabamun hub, is in the most advanced planning stages of any potential carbon capture project in the area.

It aims to capture one million tonnes of carbon emissions annually, making the Edmonton-area plant the world's first net-zero cement facility.

But Capital Power's project, which was to capture three million tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, would have been a key part of Enbridge's plan.

Enbridge noted that Capital Power’s decision had no material impact to Enbridge's financial position or growth projections, nor was it characterized as a secured project.

Gruending said Enbridge remains strongly interested in growing a carbon capture, sequestration and transportation business.

But Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel said only the most competitive CCUS projects will go ahead, and tax incentives in the U.S. remain more attractive than what is on offer for carbon capture proponents in Canada.

"So we're real careful with how we deal with this," Ebel said.

"I think, that like a lot of other things, there'll probably be fewer of these (final projects) than obviously the number of proposals that are out there. We're going to do this really disciplined, and it sounds like they (Capital Power) are as well."

Capital Power's decision comes in spite of the fact the Alberta government is promising to cover up to 12 per cent of the costs of CCUS projects and the federal government as much as half through a new tax credit, which has yet to be legislated.

But many companies remain concerned that the existing federal carbon pricing system could be cancelled by future governments, a concern which would impact the financial feasibility of emissions-reducing investments like CCUS.

Ottawa is trying to address that uncertainty by offering so-called "carbon contracts for difference," which reduce the risk for businesses investing in clean technologies by guaranteeing the price of carbon for a fixed period of time.

But most companies proposing CCUS projects in Canada have not yet successfully negotiated a satisfactory contract for difference with the Canada Growth Fund.

Enbridge reported Friday its first-quarter profit fell compared with a year ago as it recorded a non-cash, net unrealized derivative fair value loss as well as costs related to job cuts announced in February.

On an adjusted basis, the company reported earnings of $2.0 billion or $0.92 per common share, an eight per cent increase from the previous year's quarter.

Analysts on average had expected a profit of 81 cents per share for the quarter, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

In a note to clients, TD Cowen analyst Linda Ezergailis said Enbridge's strong results demonstrate the company is solidly positioned to deliver energy in a growing market.

"In our view, ENB's scale, diversification and stability, resilient business model, long-life assets, and ability to pivot to meet continued industry changes, including a transition to a lower-carbon future, should warrant a premium valuation," she said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 10, 2024.

Amanda Stephenson, The Canadian Press

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for CCS 

ARGENTINA

YPF’s $2.5 Billion Shale Oil Pipeline Moves Ahead After Approval


Jonathan Gilbert
Fri, May 10, 2024 


(Bloomberg) -- Argentina’s biggest oil and gas producer, state-run YPF SA, is moving ahead with plans to build a $2.5 billion cross-country pipeline that’s key to unlocking exports of crude from the vast Vaca Muerta shale patch in Patagonia.

YPF recently received environmental authorization for the so-called Vaca Muerta Sur pipeline and is seeking bids from contractors to build it, said Max Westen, head of strategy and business development.

For years, YPF has spearheaded drilling in Vaca Muerta by teaming up with other oil companies. Now, it’s doing the same for building pipelines and a liquefied natural gas plant, both of which require partners to proceed.

“The environmental permit is a key milestone, and we are in discussions with the rest of the oil industry — there’s a lot of interest in participating,” Westen said on an earnings call.

Read More: YPF 1Q Net Income Beats Estimates

Pipeline capacity is the chief bottleneck holding back Vaca Muerta, a heralded but underdeveloped formation often likened to the Permian in the US.

Last year, the government built a new trunk line for shale gas that’s helping to reduce the country’s LNG imports. It’s also reversing the flow of a pipeline originally designed to bring in fuel from Bolivia, so that Argentina’s northern provinces can instead be supplied by domestic shale. The two projects may one day enable Argentina to send its gas to neighboring Brazil.

But shipments of crude are a quicker way to generate the billions of dollars a year that Argentina is seeking to help turn around its struggling economy.

That’s why drillers, including YPF, are shifting their attention to Vaca Muerta’s oil window. Already, the companies have resumed crude sales to neighboring Chile after a years-long hiatus.

They are also investing — via Oldelval SA — in expanding existing facilities to ship crude overseas from Argentina’s Atlantic coast. That route will soon have an extra 45,000 barrels a day of capacity, plus another 200,000 barrels next year, Westen said.

Vaca Muerta Sur will run from the shale heartland of Neuquen province across northern Patagonia to Punta Colorada, where a port must be built to load tankers. The conduit is expected to transport 180,000 barrels a day in 2026 and may eventually have capacity for 700,000 barrels.

“Vaca Muerta Sur is the most competitive evacuation route to monetize the crude in Vaca Muerta,” Westen said. “That’s why YPF is pursuing it as a priority over any other project.”

YPF’s net shale oil production in the first quarter hit a record of 112,000 barrels a day, an increase of 3% from the previous quarter.

YPF’s new management — appointed by President Javier Milei — is divesting aging, conventional oil fields to focus on Vaca Muerta in a bid to boost its stock price and resume dividend payments to shareholders.

The company pitched the blocks at an investor roadshow in Houston and Calgary last month, generating interest from about 70 companies, Westen said. YPF is preparing to receive bids in June and hopes to complete sales by the end of the year.

Business groups walk back claim on share of Canadians hit by capital gains changes

The Canadian Press
Thu, May 9, 2024 



OTTAWA — Prominent business groups have backtracked their claim that one in five Canadians would be affected by the federal government's proposed changes to capital gains taxation.

In a letter sent to Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland on Thursday, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce and other groups said the government's assertion that only the wealthiest Canadians will be affected was misleading.

"In fact, one in five Canadians will be directly impacted over the next 10 years and the effects of this tax hike will be borne by all Canadians, directly or indirectly," the original letter reads.

But the study from which that figure was taken suggests otherwise.

The 2023 study by Simon Fraser University's Jonathan Rhys Kesselman estimates one in five Canadians would be affected over a 10-year period if the inclusion rate was increased on all capital gains.

The federal budget only increases the inclusion rate on individuals' capital gains above $250,000, which means a much smaller proportion of Canadians would end up paying higher taxes.

The new inclusion rate would also apply to all capital gains realized by corporations.

After The Canadian Press asked questions about the figure, the chamber of commerce changed the letter on its website to read that one in five companies would be directly affected.

"We looked into this, and upon review, the language could be more clear to reflect the impact on Canadian companies. We have adjusted the copy in the letter online," spokesman Karl Oczkowski said in an email.

The chamber of commerce did not immediately clarify how it arrived at the conclusion that one in five companies would be hit.

The joint letter is signed by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Canadian Federation for Independent Business, Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters, Canadian Venture Capital and Private Equity Association, Canadian Franchise Association and Canadian Canola Growers Association.

The groups call on the Liberal government to scrap the tax increase, arguing it will ultimately hurt the economy by lessening competition and innovation.

Kesselman, who was a professor at SFU's School of Public Policy, died earlier this year.

In his study, Kesselman assessed arguments for and against increasing the inclusion rate, including its potential impact on the economy.

"The overall impact of existing and increased capital gains taxes on the economy's efficiency and growth are mixed and not easily quantified," Kesselman wrote.

"However, contrary to common claims, some of these impacts would be economically favourable, while others that might be economically adverse could be mitigated through appropriate concomitant reforms."

His study recommended increasing the capital gains inclusion rate above a certain threshold of capital gains or income, so that it would better target a smaller group of individuals with the highest and most recurrent capital gains.

The federal budget proposes making two-thirds of capital gains — the profit made on the sale of assets — taxable, rather than one-half.

For individuals' capital gains of $250,000 or less, the inclusion rate would remain the same, at 50 per cent.

Ottawa estimates that in any given year, 0.13 per cent of Canadians would pay higher taxes on their capital gains.

Meanwhile, it says only a small share of corporations will be affected, noting in the budget that 12.6 per cent of corporations had capital gains in 2022.

The budget also proposes an incentive for entrepreneurs by reducing the inclusion rate to 33.3 per cent on a lifetime maximum of $2 million in eligible capital gains.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government has faced backlash from several groups over the tax changes, including from the Canadian Medical Association.

The physicians' group has pointed out that doctors with incorporated medical practices will be particularly affected, because all of their investments are made inside a corporation.

However, Freeland and Trudeau have dismissed the pushback, arguing it's high time for wealthier Canadians to pay their fair share in taxes.

They've also argued the government needs that tax revenue to help pay for things like housing and health care, and deliver "generational fairness" for younger Canadians.

The Liberal government estimates the higher inclusion rate will generate $19.4 billion over the next five years.

The proposed capital gains tax change is expected to come into effect on June 25.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 9, 2024.

Nojoud Al Mallees, The Canadian Press