Macron isolated as legislative third-place finish prompts rethink of his legacy

French President Emmanuel Macron's camp saw an embarrassing third-place finish in the first round of snap legislative elections on Sunday, behind both the far-right National Rally party and a new leftist alliance. With the National Rally now poised to secure the largest block in parliament, Macron's shock decision to dissolve the National Assembly after European elections in June has detractors calling out his "hubris" and prompted a reconsideration of his legacy.


Issued on: 01/07/2024

01:44

France's President Emmanuel Macron adjusts his tie after a meeting with NATO'S Secretary General at the Elysee Presidential Palace in Paris on June 24, 2024. © Bertrand Guay, AFP

Emmanuel Macron has taken many risks in a political career marked by countless crises but his decision to call snap elections may be one too many, marring his legacy and ushering in an era of extremes.

The tremors from Macron dissolving the National Assembly after his centrist party suffered a drubbing in European polls remain strong, with even figures close to the president acknowledging unease over the political turmoil.

The far-right National Rally (RN) on Sunday won the first round of legislative elections.

Next week's second-round results on July 7 could give the party of Macron's longtime rival Marine Le Pen the post of prime minister for the first time, forcing a tense "cohabitation".

Read moreLe Pen’s far-right party wins first round as Macron’s snap elections gamble backfires

Macron's popularity has sunk to the extent that allies suggested he take a back seat in the campaign, with Prime Minister Gabriel Attal leading the way.

For one of Macron's most loyal supporters, some of the resentment stems from his unexpected rise to the presidency.

"There's a desire for revenge on the part of politicians who resent his success," said Francois Patriat, head of the pro-Macron deputies in the upper house Senate.

Always defiant, Macron insisted in a statement as the first results were published on "the importance of this vote for all our compatriots and the desire to clarify the political situation".

'Hopeless optimist'

Born in Amiens to two doctors, Macron met his future wife Brigitte when she was his teacher and 25 years his senior.

"He fell in love with his drama teacher when he was 16, and he said he was going to marry her, and then he married her. That's pretty strong stuff," said a former classmate from the elite graduate school ENA.

With that same self-confidence, he quit the government of former president Francois Hollande in August 2016 to prepare his run for the presidency, a risky move at the time.

04:14

He went on to create En Marche (On the Move), a political movement with the same initials as its leader and won the presidential election in 2017 at the age of 39.

Calling himself a "hopeless optimist," Macron later said he was able to break through "because France was unhappy and worried".

Optimism over the former Rothschild investment banker, who once promoted "Revolution" in his book, quickly soured over his economic policies once in office.

The former economy minister under a Socialist government earned the reputation as "president of the rich" after announcing early in his tenure that he would abolish a tax on high earners.

Then, last year, his move to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 sparked mass protests and reinforced the perception that Macron is out of touch with public opinion.

Read moreA dog day afternoon in French politics as Macron uses 'nuclear option' to raise retirement age

"There are a lot of people who think I'm haughty," he said. Early quips haunted him, including one when he said the unemployed only needed to "cross the street" to find a job.

The now 46-year-old is convinced that his economic track record speaks for itself, with France considered Europe's most attractive country for foreign investment and an end to mass unemployment.

But for many, Macron's promise of centrism has not withstood pressure from a wave of domestic and international crises -- or from the far right.
'Lack of humility'

The anti-government "yellow vest" movement, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine are just a few of the challenges Macron has faced during his tenure.

Even as his support buckles at home, Macron has remained a key voice in European politics.

"We shouldn't quibble. He's the great European of his time," said Franco-German ecologist Daniel Cohn-Bendit, while adding that Macron's problem was that he was "convinced of being right".

Macron aligned with allies offering support to Ukraine after Russia's 2022 invasion, but he irritated many by continuing to engage with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

03:53

Two years later however, some criticise him for his hawkish stance. Macron refuses to rule out sending troops to Ukraine, a move criticised by other Western countries as unnecessarily inflammatory.

The late Gerard Collomb, former mayor of Lyon, was more direct in his criticism, calling out Macron's "hubris" and a "lack of humility" in the government.

The perception that Macron is increasingly isolated is part of the problem, said one former advisor.

04:20



"He has no grassroots network... the people around him are the same, they don't express the mood of the times," they added.

While the first lady is seen as a moderating figure, Macron has shifted rightward, with some accusing the president of opportunism.
'Shifting opinion'

On the evening of his 2017 victory, Macron pledged in front of the Louvre museum to do "everything" in his power to ensure the French "no longer have any reason to vote for the extremes".

For many, though, the young centrist whom they voted for has shifted further and further right, opening the door for other extremes to take hold.

The same man who drew inspiration from an anti-capitalist party slogan to win re-election in 2022 later adopted the words of extreme right-wing figure Eric Zemmour "so that France remains France".

03:50

For Le Pen, who senses a chance to take the presidency in 2027, Macron has "a plasticity, an incredible self-confidence which is both his strength and his weakness".

A former special advisor sees that plasticity differently.

"He's turning his back on ... 2017 and humanist values," said Philippe Grangeon. "There is no right-wing turn... the president is adapting to shifting opinion."

Macron dismisses these criticisms, saying he ultimately relies on himself. "You make the toughest decisions on your own," he said.

(AFP)

'Unprecedented': French far right almost doubles share of votes from 2022 legislative elections

Issued on: 01/07/2024 - 

19:49

Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party scored historic gains to win the first round of France's parliamentary election, but the final outcome will depend on days of alliance-building before next week's run-off vote. The RN and allies had 33% of the vote, followed by a leftwing bloc with 28% and President Emmanuel Macron's centrists with just 20%, official results from the interior ministry showed on Monday. That was a huge setback for Macron who had called the snap election after his ticket was trounced by the RN in European Parliament elections last month. But whether the anti-immigrant, eurosceptic RN will be able to form a government will depend on next week's decisive round and how successfully other parties manage to thwart Le Pen by rallying round the best-placed rival candidates in constituencies across France. Leaders of both the leftwing New Popular Front and Macron's centrist alliance made clear on Sunday night they would withdraw their own candidates in districts where another candidate was better placed to beat the RN in next Sunday's runoff. A longtime pariah for many in France, the RN is now closer to power than it has ever been. For in-depth analysis and a deeper perspective on this historic win for the French far right, FRANCE 24 is joined by Dr Anna McKeever, Lecturer in Political Sciences at the University of the West of Scotland.

 

French legislative elections results could have 'major implications' for the EU

Issued on: 01/07/2024

01:45

Marine Le Pen's anti-immigrant and eurosceptic far-right National Rally (RN) party scored historic gains to win the first round of France's parliamentary election. Reporting from Brussels, FRANCE 24's Pierre Benazet explains what a far-right victory in France could mean for the European Union.

Tens of thousands protest far right party convention in Germany

Emanuel Xhindi | U. Tirana Faculty of Law, AL

JUNE 30, 2024 0

Tens of thousands of people marched Saturday in Essen, Germany against an ongoing convention by the far-right Alternative for Germany party (AfD).

The protest was reported to be generally calm and violence-free, although several arrests were made and police said two officers were hospitalized after clashing with protestors. The A25 highway was also temporarily blocked. In response to the protests, the mayor of Essen Thomas Kufen emphasized that a clearer framework for a party’s selection of a host city for its convention must be established.

The AfD won a legal battle more than two weeks ago about an administrative contract between the Essen municipality and the venue-offering entity, which was to condition the public facility’s usage with a declaration by the AfD to not make any criminal statements. Since the AfD has not been declared as unconstitutional by the federal constitutional court, it was decided that this condition should be strictly assessed.

The Alternative for Germany came second in the last European Parliament Elections with about 15.90% of the votes, right after the Christian Democratic Union, which got around 30%. It first entered the German Parliament in 2017, placing third in that year’s elections, rising in popularity ever since. There have been previous demands to ban the AfD, and its opponents say they are a threat to Germany’s democracy. The German Federal Youth Association has previously stated that the AfD should be banned to confront fascism in Germany.

Samsung’s chip workers on verge of all-out strike

Samsung’s first-ever strike called for fair wages, transparent bonuses and better work conditions – and more disruption is in the pipeline

By PRANJAL PANDEY

JULY 1, 2024

Samsung workers want a bigger piece of the profit pie. 

Image: Asia Times Files / AFP

On June 7, Samsung workers in South Korea embarked on their first-ever strike, organized by the Nationwide Samsung Electronics Union (NSEU). This historic event involved approximately 28,000 union members, representing about one-fifth of Samsung’s workforce in South Korea.

The strike targeted Samsung’s chip division, which manufactures a variety of critical components such as RAM, NAND flash chips, USB sticks, SD cards, Exynos processors, camera sensors, modems, NFC chips, and power/display controllers.

The action highlighted deep-seated issues surrounding unionization within Samsung, marking a significant shift in the company’s labor dynamics. Throughout the strike, union members posted visible notices on Samsung facility doors, outlining their grievances and demands.

Lee Hyun-kuk, vice president of the National Samsung Electronics Union, described this action as “largely symbolic, but it’s a beginning.” He emphasized that the union has contingency plans for subsequent strikes if management does not address its grievances. Lee further stated that the possibility of an all-out general strike remains on the table, underscoring the union’s determination to press for their demands.

The union is pushing for a 6.5% salary hike, in contrast to the company’s proposed 5.1% raise, as well as an additional day of annual leave and a more transparent approach to calculating bonuses. Bonuses are particularly important because they make up a significant part of employees’ pay.


In 2023, the method for calculating bonuses, which takes into account both operating profit and cost of capital, resulted in no bonuses being paid to workers. The union argues that bonuses should be based solely on operating profit. Samsung’s chip division reported a profit of US$1.4 billion in the first quarter of this year.

Samsung Group has consistently opposed unionization efforts, resulting in policies that keep wages low, provide minimal benefits and enforce extended work hours.

In December 2013, the Korean Metal Workers’ Union (KMWU), supported by the IndustriALL Global Union, revealed widespread violations of workers’ rights within Samsung. These violations included reports of kidnapping and physical violence against union leaders, alongside targeted training programs for management aimed at preventing union formation.

Samsung’s global reputation in the IT sector is also marred by its challenging working conditions, characterized by long hours and a reliance on precarious employment arrangements. The company actively dissuades workers from joining unions and pressures unionized precarious employees to disengage from their representative organizations.

These tactics involve paying lower wages to union members and subjecting them to intensive monitoring, which raises significant ethical concerns about Samsung’s treatment of its workforce in the technology industry.

Samsung Electronics Co, Ltd operates with a hierarchical workforce structure that reveals significant disparities. At the top are highly paid professionals and research and development personnel critical for innovation and product development.

In the middle tier are skilled tradespeople and manufacturing workers across Samsung’s global factories, including those in South Korea, essential for production but often facing challenging conditions.

At the lower end of Samsung’s labor hierarchy are workers employed by contractors and subcontractors, a group for whom Samsung denies responsibility despite their crucial role in the company’s operations.

The intense work culture at Samsung became evident during the 2012 Samsung-Apple patent trial, which exposed rigorous work conditions among research and development staff. Chief designer Wang Jee-yuen’s testimony vividly depicted the demanding nature of the job, including prolonged work hours that impacted personal well-being and family life.

Women constitute a significant portion of Samsung’s skilled workforce, often recruited from smaller towns to work in semiconductor labs. They endure extended shifts, rotating schedules and exposure to hazardous substances.

Samsung is not alone in exploiting its workers. A study shows that iPhone workers today are exploited 25 times more than textile workers in 19th-century England. The exploitation rate for iPhone workers is incredibly high at 2,458%.

This means that workers spend most of their day producing goods that make the company richer, with only a tiny part of their workday going towards their wages.

Amazon, a major employer in the US, is notorious for its challenging working conditions. Employees in Amazon warehouses face physical strain, workplace injuries and mental health issues as part of their daily job risks.

The company utilizes advanced surveillance systems to closely monitor employee activities. While Amazon asserts these measures enhance safety, workers often feel pressured to maintain an excessively fast pace to meet productivity standards.

Additionally, Amazon has actively opposed unionization efforts among its workforce. In 2021, the company spent $4.2 million on consultants to discourage workers from joining unions.

However, on April 1, 2022, workers achieved a significant breakthrough with the establishment of the Amazon Labor Union (ALU), marking the first union at an Amazon facility in the US. This accomplishment came after a year-long struggle against Amazon’s aggressive tactics against unions and garnered support from dedicated workers and organizers at the Staten Island warehouse.

In 2011, workers at the Maruti-Suzuki Manesar IMT plant in India applied to register a new union, the Maruti Suzuki Employees Union (MSEU), in Chandigarh. Upon discovering this initiative, management allegedly pressured workers to sign documents pledging not to join the MSEU.

In response, 3,000 workers launched a sit-in strike on June 4, 2011, at the Manesar Plant, demanding recognition of the MSEU. To further pressure the workers, management fired 11 employees, including MSEU office bearers, on June 6 of that year, accusing them of inciting the strike.

Over time, Maruti Suzuki has shifted its workforce strategy by increasing the number of contract workers under precarious conditions while maintaining a smaller core of permanent employees.

These labor movements show the ongoing global battle of workers against exploitation by powerful corporations. They underscore the challenges and unfair treatment faced by the workers and emphasize the necessity for systemic reform to ensure fair treatment and the equitable distribution of the benefits of their labor.


Pranjal Pandey, a journalist and editor located in Delhi, has edited seven books covering a range of issues available at LeftWord. You can explore his journalistic contributions on NewsClick.in.

This article was produced by Globetrotter 

The 2024 Southeast Asian Heatwave and Indonesia’s Divergent Experience

Why Indonesia’s warming phenomenon is different with the rest of Southeast Asia.

Debbie No

·

·

Photo by Rapha Wilde on Unsplash

Recently, ‘weather’ and ‘climate’ have become buzzwords in discussions about climatological events took place in my region, Southeast Asia. While related, these terms have distinct meanings. Weather refers to the short-term atmospheric conditions in a specific area, fluctuating rapidly from hour to hour or day to day. In contrast, climate describes the long-term average weather patterns in a region, typically measured over 30 years or more.

Understanding this distinction is crucial, as these terms are often used interchangeably. Weather might describe a single rainy day, while climate refers to the overall tendency for a region to experience rainy seasons. Recognizing this difference is essential for interpreting scientific reports, news articles, and discussions about our changing Earth.

The Heatwave Impacts Across Southeast Asia

Heatwave in The Philippines, April 2024. Image source: Le Monde

Starting in early 2024, a significant heatwave swept across Southeast Asia, peaking in April, with extreme increases in both average daily and maximum temperatures. This climatological event, characterized by prolonged periods of abnormally high temperatures, has had far-reaching impacts on the region. Reports from various Southeast Asian media highlight the severity of the heatwave’s effects:

• Thailand: The heatwave has tragically took 30 lives due to heatstroke, prompting urgent calls for precautionary measures.
• Malaysia: At least two heat-related fatalities have been recorded, including the death of a young child, as per April 2024.
• Vietnam: Abnormally high temperatures in the South have caused widespread drought, devastating rice fields and triggering a state of emergency due to the severe impact on the agricultural sector.
• Cambodia: The heatwave is expected to persist, prolonging its effects on the country.
• Philippines: In-person classes in some cities have been suspended as daily temperatures soared to 42 degrees Celsius.

What is a heatwave and how we define a heatwave?

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a heatwave is defined by specific criteria:

1. An increase in the average temperature of 5 degrees Celsius (or more) above the normal average.
2. This elevated temperature must persist for five or more consecutive days.

Most of Southeast Asia lies within the mid-latitudes, where heatwaves are common. This latitudinal position also makes the region susceptible to El Niño events, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Prolonged El Niño events can disrupt weather patterns, leading to changes in temperature and rainfall.

However, Indonesia’s location in low latitudes results in a somewhat different experience of this phenomenon, which will be explored in the latter part of this article.

Is it still related to climate change?

Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash

To classify a weather event as a climate phenomenon, extensive data spanning long periods is necessary. Only by observing significant shifts in weather patterns over time can we confidently link them to potential indicators of climate change.

It is true that climate change has the potential to amplify the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

Heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall, storms, and floods are all examples of events that can become more common and severe as the planet warms. This heightened intensity is due to the fact that warmer air holds more moisture, leading to increased precipitation and intense downpours.

Furthermore, climate change can also trigger shifts in temperature patterns.

Beyond simply raising average temperatures, it can also disrupt cycles of dry and rainy seasons. For instance, Indonesia typically experiences its rainy season from October to March. However, significant anomalies have been observed since last year, with October 2023 being unusually hot, and the hot season extending into April 2024.

To fully grasp the intricacies of the heatwave phenomenon in Southeast Asia, it’s crucial to understand the role of air movement and heat masses as Southeast Asia lies within the tropics, a region characterized by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a band of high-altitude, extremely hot air.

Within the ITCZ, convection is prevalent, with air rising and carrying abundant water vapor due to increased evaporation from the region’s vast oceans. This process effectively ‘supercharges’ the atmosphere, leading to an abundance of water vapor, cloud formation, and rainfall, which can significantly alter precipitation patterns.

What’s happening in Indonesia is not a heatwave

Contrary to other Southeast Asian countries, after careful analysis, the hot weather phenomenon experienced in Indonesia is not classified as a heatwave. This conclusion aligns with official statements released by the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) and the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN).

According to the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) criteria for heatwaves, the average daily maximum temperature in Indonesia throughout 2024 has only ranged from 35.2 to 36 degrees Celsius. This range falls short of the 5-degree Celsius increase above the average temperature typically required for a heatwave classification. Furthermore, Indonesia’s location at a low latitude prevents it from experiencing the same level of intense heat observed in countries like Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Myanmar.

While heatwaves are infrequent in Indonesia, their occurrence can trigger changes in temperature patterns. Data collected from 1981 to 2022 reveals that the most significant temperature increases have been recorded in Palembang (1 degree Celsius) and Medan (0.9 degrees Celsius). However, despite these fluctuations, official records show no instances of heatwaves in the country to date.

Photo by Z on Unsplash

What sets Indonesia apart from other Southeast Asian nations in this regard?

Beyond its slightly different latitudinal position, Indonesia’s unique geography, dominated by vast bodies of water, plays a crucial role. The surrounding waters act as a natural ‘cooling system’, effectively mitigating the conditions necessary for heatwave development.

With two-thirds of its territory comprised of water, Indonesia experiences dynamic atmospheric circulation patterns. This dynamic nature ensures that even if a heatwave were to occur, it would be short-lived and unlikely to persist for an extended period of time.

In contrast, many Southeast Asian countries share land borders and are located within the mid-latitudes, where heatwaves are more common. In such regions, heat phenomena originating in one country can easily spread across borders, exacerbating the situation and leading to slower atmospheric circulation patterns that further prolong the heatwave

In conclusion, Indonesia’s extensive water bodies and dynamic atmospheric circulation, provides a natural shield against the prolonged and intense heatwaves that often affect other Southeast Asian countries.

While the region as a whole is susceptible to such phenomena due to its latitudinal position and shared land borders, Indonesia’s distinct characteristics set it apart, offering a more temperate and resilient environment in the face of rising global temperatures as now happening in the first half of 2024.

Thank you for reading.

Heatwave crisis bearing down on developing Asia

Spike in temperatures in South and Southeast Asia are cause for long-term concern

By PRANJAL PANDEY

JUNE 19, 2024

A woman cools off by a fan in Thailand. Photo: YouTube Screengrab / SkyNews

In April 2024, extreme heat hit South and Southeast Asia, affecting nations like India, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Myanmar. These heat waves severely impacted some of the world’s most densely populated regions, taking a heavy toll on health, the economy, and education.

In May and June, tens of millions of people faced dangerous heat. India had its longest heat wave ever, starting in mid-May. In northern India, temperatures rose above 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit), with some areas exceeding 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit). Official reports in May mentioned 56 heat-related deaths between March and May, but the real number is probably higher because rural deaths often aren’t reported.

Myanmar has faced unprecedented high temperatures in several townships, including Magway, Mandalay, Sagaing, and Bago divisions. Cambodia has recently experienced its highest temperatures in 170 years, reaching up to 43 degrees Celsius (109 Fahrenheit).

In northern Thailand, temperatures soared above 44 degrees Celsius (111 Fahrenheit), while Bangkok saw temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit). In 2024, Thailand’s summer, which typically runs from late February to late May, was 1–2 degrees Celsius hotter than the previous year, with rainfall below average.

Through May 10, 2024, at least 61 people in Thailand died from heatstroke, compared to 37 deaths throughout the entire previous year.

The intense heat has caused disruptions in education and labor productivity. In the Philippines, authorities instructed millions of students to stay home by suspending in-person classes for two days. The Department of Education directed more than 47,000 public schools to shift to online lessons.

Extreme heat is influenced by both local and global factors. Locally, reduced vegetation and soil moisture contribute to higher temperatures. Urban areas, with their concrete and asphalt surfaces, retain heat, creating what is known as the urban heat island effect. Additionally, wind patterns and cloud cover play roles in local temperature variations.

Globally, El Niño events and climate change amplify extreme heat occurrences. El Niño events have released additional heat into the atmosphere since May 2023, exacerbating global warming. Consequently, regions like South and Southeast Asia experience more frequent, prolonged, and intense heat waves.

El Niño is a weather phenomenon characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It occurs irregularly every few years and can affect global weather patterns.

During El Niño, increased ocean temperatures lead to changes in atmospheric circulation, which can cause heavy rainfall in some regions and droughts in others. It also influences the jet stream, altering storm patterns worldwide.


In South and Southeast Asia, El Niño often correlates with hotter and drier conditions, worsening heat waves and extending dry periods. These conditions pose severe challenges for agriculture, leading to reduced crop yields and increased wildfire risks.

El Niño and La Niña are integral to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, a natural phenomenon causing significant year-to-year climate variations on Earth.

However, human-induced climate change is now affecting this cycle. Studies indicate that that factor is increasing the occurrence and intensity of severe El Niño events, multiplying their impacts such as droughts, floods, heat waves, and altered hurricane patterns.

Climate models predict that extreme El Niño events could occur approximately every 10 years instead of every 20 due to global warming. This heightened frequency could result in more frequent and severe weather-related disasters globally.

Climate change presents a significant challenge for Global South countries due to their limited resources and capacity to respond effectively. These nations heavily rely on agriculture as a vital economic pillar, making them particularly vulnerable to the erratic weather patterns associated with climate change. Consequently, they often experience crop failures, food insecurity, and heightened poverty levels.


Economically, the impact is substantial. Projections from the World Bank indicate that by 2050, over 140 million people in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America may be internally displaced due to factors exacerbated by climate change such as water scarcity and reduced agricultural productivity.

Socially, climate change worsens existing inequalities within these countries. The poorest populations, despite contributing minimally to global greenhouse gas emissions, bear the brunt of climate-related disasters such as floods and droughts. This exacerbates health issues, displaces communities, and sparks competition over essential resources like water and land. Moreover, inadequate healthcare infrastructure further complicates matters, as these countries struggle to manage the increased burden of climate-related illnesses.

Heat waves pose a serious threat to low-income communities, worsening existing health and economic disparities. These neighborhoods often lack adequate infrastructure to handle extreme temperatures, such as poorly insulated homes and limited access to cooling options.

The urban heat island effect further exacerbates the problem, making urban areas hotter than surrounding rural regions due to human activities. As a result, cooling costs rise, putting financial strain on many low-income families during heat waves.

The health impacts on these communities are significant, with more hospitalizations due to heat-related illnesses like dehydration, heat exhaustion, and potentially fatal heatstroke. Limited health care access complicates timely treatment during heat emergencies. Moreover, existing health conditions prevalent in these areas, such as respiratory and heartdiseases, worsen under extreme heat.


Economically, heat waves disrupt the livelihoods of low-income workers who rely on outdoor jobs or work in non-climate-controlled environments. Lost work hours due to illness or caregiving responsibilities contribute to financial instability.

Heat waves present significant risks to vulnerable populations in third-world countries, particularly women, the elderly, and children, exacerbating their health and socioeconomic challenges. Women, often engaged in agricultural labor, face heightened susceptibility to heat-related illnesses due to limited health care access and outdoor work.

The elderly, with age-related health issues and reduced mobility, are at increased risk of heat stress complications, compounded by insufficient cooling infrastructure. Prolonged heat waves can lead to school closures and hinder educational opportunities, further impacting the development and future prospects of children in these regions.

While developed nations revel in the comforts of modern life, third-world countries face the harsh realities of escalating climate change and severe heat waves. These communities grapple with extreme temperatures that disrupt daily routines, endanger health, and undermine economic stability.

The unequal distribution of resources starkly illustrates that as global temperatures increase, the consequences disproportionately affect those with limited resources and infrastructure to cope and adapt.

Pranjal Pandey, a journalist and editor located in Delhi, has edited seven books covering a range of issues available at LeftWord. You can explore his journalistic contributions on NewsClick.in.

Published  Globetrotter.

China badminton player, 17, dies of cardiac arrest after collapsing on court

Indonesia (AFP) – An "outstanding" 17-year-old Chinese badminton player died of cardiac arrest after collapsing on court during a tournament in Indonesia, officials said on Monday.

Issued on: 01/07/2024 - 

Players mourn the death of Chinese badminton player Zhang Zhijie 

© Handout / public relations and media division of the Indonesian Badminton Association (PBSI)/AFP

Zhang Zhijie was suddenly taken ill during a match late Sunday against Japan's Kazuma Kawano at the Asia Junior Championships in Yogyakarta.

The score was 11-11 in the first game when Zhang fell to the floor between points.

The teenager received treatment at the venue and was rushed to hospital by ambulance, but passed away later that night after repeated efforts to resuscitate him failed.

"Medical conclusions... indicated that the victim experienced sudden cardiac arrest," Broto Happy, spokesman for the Badminton Association of Indonesia (PBSI), told a press conference in Yogyakarta.

Zhang's parents were heading to the city to retrieve his body, he said.

The spokesman defended the actions of medical staff and local organisers after footage showed what appeared to be a hesitant response to the teenager falling face down on the court.

He said that medical teams had to wait for the referee to let them on the court.

"The world of badminton has lost a talented player," Badminton Asia and the PBSI said in a statement.

Zhang started playing badminton in kindergarten and joined China's national youth team last year.

Earlier this year he won the singles title at the Dutch Junior International, a prestigious youth tournament.

China's badminton association said it was "deeply saddened".

"Zhang Zhijie loved badminton and was an outstanding athlete of the national youth badminton team," the CBA said in a statement.

The team tournament held a moment's silence on Monday and the Chinese team wore black armbands as a mark of respect before the competition carried on. China beat Taiwan 3-0.

India's P.V. Sindhu, who has won Olympic silver and bronze, called Zhang's death "absolutely heartbreaking".

"I offer my deepest condolences to Zhang's family during this devastating time," Sindhu, who was not at the tournament, wrote on X.

"The world has lost a remarkable talent today."

Governing body the Badminton World Federation said it was "saddened by the loss of emerging badminton talent Zhang Zhijie.

"We offer our deepest condolences to his family, his teammates, to the Chinese Badminton Association, and the entire Chinese badminton community," it said in a statement.

© 2024 AFP

Stealing heritage

DAWN
Editorial 

Published July 1, 2024

CONTRADICTIONS define Pakistan. While the country’s repository of antiquities can change its fortunes, recurrent news about illicit trafficking of antiques and resources does not seem to unsettle the authorities. Another heist is happening in Mansehra: Agror and Tanawal areas, formerly the pre-Partition princely states of Amb and Pulrah, have become hotbeds of mineral and precious stone smuggling. Multiple union councils of a region flush with granite and white stone reserves face excavation and blasting. Residents, perturbed by chemicals and explosives causing environmental degradation, deforestation, water contamination and damaged waterways and roads, also lament official apathy towards unlawful mining and collapsing infrastructure. In fact, the once prosperous territory is bereft of socioeconomic progress. The malaise is an old one: shared greed for money is the vital nexus between corrupt officers and smugglers, allowing heritage raiders to run amok, undeterred by the thought of penalties and jail time.

In the midst of an economic meltdown and misery, citizens could do without criminal shortsightedness on the part of the state. These windfalls can be monetised for the benefit of communities. Instead, they are embezzled to fill the coffers of a select few. The government has to stem the pillage; exposed heritage and mineral-rich sites need to be secured with security and fencing. Every historic locality requires documentation and digital itemisation with the help of international preservation experts. In addition, enhanced border monitoring, alongside training in inspection skills, awareness, and graft-proof mechanisms for law enforcement must be initiated at once. Moreover, smuggling rings cannot be dismantled without vigilant security agencies. The authorities need to realise that the time for solace is long overdue. As the populace grapples with monetary, climatic and geopolitical turmoil, the value of these assets should be harnessed for the sake of respite through tourism, employment, amenities and development. Or else, the plunder will only gather speed.

Published in Dawn, July 1st, 2024

BLAMING THE VICTIM

PAKISTAN

Christian man on death row for ‘sparking’ riots in Jaranwala

Shafiq Butt 

Published July 1, 2024 

DAWN

SAHIWAL: An anti-terrorism court (ATC) has awarded the death sentence to a Christian youth, who is alleged to have circulated a social media post that led to riots in the town of Jaranwala in August last year.

Sahiwal ATC Special Judge Ziaullah Khan anno­­unced the verdict, also sentencing the young man to 22 years in prison and imp­osing a fine of Rs1 million.

Dozens of Christian homes and around 20 chu­rches were vandalised and ransacked by mobs in Jaran­wala following allegations that a copy of the Holy Quran had been desecrated.

Punjab police had claimed last year that around 135 miscreants had been booked for the attacks on the minority community in Jaranwala.

But according to Advo­cate Akmal Bhatti, chairman of the Minorities Alli­a­nce, most of the accused had either been discharged or freed on bail. Hardly 12 people are currently facing trials, he said

In March, a Faisalabad TC had acquitted two Christian brothers who were ostensibly ‘framed’ for desecration after a police probe revealed that the two had been implicated in a blasphemy case over a personal enmity.

The convict was accused of sharing a social media post, which allegedly contained blasphemous content on a complaint by Sub-Inspec­tor Amir Farooq of Dera Rahim police. He was picked up by police on intelligence reports three days after the riots.

The final judgment said he was awarded the death sentence and a fine of Rs500,000 under Section 295(C), 10 years rigorous imprisonment under Sec­tion 295(A), seven years under the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act, and five years and Rs500,000 fine under 7(1) (G)-ATA.

Complainant Amir Farooq, who is now serving as SHO at the Ghala Mandi police, told Dawn that while the man in question did not produce the blasphemous content, he did share it on TikTok, where it went viral.

Published in Dawn, July 1st, 2024

PAKISTAN

Man in Shangla sentenced to life for abduction, ‘marital rape’ of minor wife

Victim’s counsel claims it is first conviction of its kind

Umar Bacha 

Published July 1, 2024 

DAWN

SHANGLA: A local court has convicted a person for abduction and ‘marital rape’ of his minor wife, whose Rukhsathi had not taken place, and sentenced him to life imprisonment and imposed a fine of Rs300,000 on him.

Additional Sessions Judge Mohammad Khan Yousafzai, presiding a gender-based violence court, after completion of trial pronounced that the prosecution proved its case against the accused, Rashid Ali, and the evidence on record connected him with the commission of the offence.

The judge convicted the accused on two counts and sentenced him under section 365-b (kidnapping) of Pakistan Penal Code to life imprisonment with a fine of Rs100,000, and to 25 years imprisonment with a fine of Rs200,000 under section 376 (rape) of PPC.

The court, however, acquitted seven of the family members of the convict due to lack of evidence. The counsel appearing for the convict said that the victim was legal wife of his client and hence no offence was committed by him.

Victim’s counsel claims it is first conviction of its kind

The judge in his judgement discussed in detail different aspects of section 375 of PPC dealing with rape. The court observed that a close and critical reading of section 375 PPC, defining the offence of rape, made no exception to marriage.

“If the allegation of rape in marriage is ignored, yet another question is the victim’s juvenility. The victim, being just above 16 years of age, is still covered in the definition of ‘child,’ being under 18 years of age,” the court observed.

The FIR of the occurrence was registered at Karora police station in Shangla on June 10, 2023, on complaint of the victim’s mother. The complainant stated that her husband died around 10 years ago and around two years ago she arranged Nikkah of her daughter (the victim) with the accused but Rukhsatjhi was yet to take place.

She claimed that she had put a demand to the family of the accused to arrange separate accommodation for her daughter before formal marriage, but they were reluctant to do so. She alleged that on the eventful night, they were present at home when the accused along with his father and four other relatives barged into their house and forcibly took away the victim while the complainant, her son and another daughter were tied and also beaten.

Initially, the FIR was registered for abducting the girl, but subsequently when she was recovered by police different provisions of PPC and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Child Protection and Welfare Act, dealing with sexual assaults and sexual abuse, were also included in it.

Following the recovery of the girl, her statement was recorded by a judicial magistrate, wherein she blamed the accused for repeatedly assaulting her during captivity. Her medical examination also confirmed that she was subjected to sexual assault.

The complainant’s counsel Mian Safeer told Dawn that after a year and rounds of trial, recording statements and producing evidences, the court eventually found the accused guilty of the offence of the abduction of the victim and having sex without her consent.

The lawyer said it was the first-ever conviction in a case of ‘marital rape’ after amendments made in PPC in 2021.

He said after the girl abduction she remained in captivity of the accused for four days and she was recovered from his custody and produced before a magistrate.

He added that earlier the bail petitions of the prime accused had also been rejected by Peshawar High Court Mingora Bench and additional sessions judge.

ARREST: Police on Sunday arrested two persons and registered a case against them for making a video for TikTok while beating up a calf.

An FIR registered Karora at police station by the SHO said that a video was making rounds on social media in which two persons were constantly beating up the calf and DPO Imran Khan took notice of it.

Published in Dawn, July 1st, 2024

Macroeconomic impacts of climate change

Ajaz Ahmed 

Published July 1, 2024 

What happens to an economy when it is hot outside? Globally, record-breaking temperatures have been witnessed in the past few years. Evidence shows that heat waves dampen economic output, causing GDP losses and exacerbating further global inequality. Similarly, projections for the US economy show that rising temperatures could reduce economic growth by up to one-third over the next century.

Nonetheless, the assumption that the economic damage from global warming is only confined to the agriculture sector is no longer true as climate change and environmental degradation pose significant risks to macroeconomy and financial systems. For example, climate change will affect individual and household income, sectors of the economy, energy markets, inflation variability, financial markets, innovation, and rising public debt, among others.

While rising global temperatures have profound impacts on economies all over the world, the phenomenon is still poorly understood due to the complexity of climate-related risks and their interactions with the real economy.

Scientific studies are being conducted to estimate the impact of global warming on different sectors of the economy. Nonetheless, there is a consensus that macroprudential measures are critical to mitigate climate-related risks, as without mitigation measures, physical risks from climate change-driven natural hazards — heat waves, windstorms, floods, and droughts — are likely to increase significantly.

Global warming and extreme weather phenomena can increase inflation and the debt-to-GDP ratio

While the marginal effects of temperature rise are different in different regions, the persistent increases in global temperature have serious implications for economic growth, productivity, and efficiency.

However, the sensitivity of different economies to the impacts of global warming depends on their reliance on different sectors of the economy, which can be more or less susceptible to changing temperatures. Thus, climate change will be a critical factor in shaping the responses to macroeconomic conditions in the near future.

Decarbonisation is no longer a matter of choice, as reducing carbon intensity in production processes and energy use is unavoidable in reducing carbon emissions per unit of output produced and making production cleaner. Yet, the decarbonisation of economies for net-zero targets will affect output and inflation, exerting changes in the monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions in most countries.

So, the key question for pandits of economics, especially those from the developing world, is how to reduce carbon-intensive economic activity without having serious repercussions for productivity, efficiency, and economic growth.

Climate change can potentially increase inflation and the debt-to-GDP ratio, resulting in economic uncertainty and tighter fiscal and monetary policies, which may lead to lower demand via lower spending and reduced economic activity. The transition to net zero would require the deployment of tools such as tax, subsidy, and regulation, resulting in increasing abatement costs.

This can potentially generate relative price shocks, pushing up aggregate inflation, which is likely to necessitate changes in monetary policy, not to mention the net zero transition exerting an effect on inflation would itself be difficult to handle. Furthermore, the structural transformations required for the transition to net zero are expected to alter the monetary policy channels and subsequent impact on inflation and economic activity.

Since climate change increases the frequency and severity of shocks, it may become increasingly difficult for central banks to regularly read through such shocks. In other words, identifying the regular shocks of an unknown nature to the economy will result in complicating the assessment of the monetary policy stance, which will often be confronted with the trade-off between output and inflation stabilisation.

Therefore, macroeconomic policy responses must take into account the impacts of climate-related extreme weather events, decarbonisation of economies, and net zero transition. As climate change impacts are often regional and global, invoking structural adjustment processes that may transcend national borders necessitates assessing macroeconomic implications and formulating models that provide insights with regional and sectoral differentiation.

The existing analytical frameworks and macroeconomic modelling tools are inadequate and unsuitable to grapple with the dynamic nature of climate uncertainty to design informed policy responses. Therefore, policymakers need to review and, where required, improve and align their toolkit to the new challenges. Nevertheless, reducing uncertainty and creating an environment that enables pacifying reactions will be highly critical in the future, as climate change will remain a major global risk for some time.

The writer has a PhD degree in economics from Durham University, UK and is director of research programmes for the Social Protection Resource Centre, Islamabad

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, June 30th, 2024

Economic fallout

Ajaz Ahmed 

Published July 1, 2024 

DAWN

WHAT happens to an economy when it is hot outside? Globally, record-breaking temperatures have been witnessed in the past few years. There is evidence that heatwaves dampen economic output, causing GDP losses and exacerbating global inequality. For instance, projections for the US economy show that rising temperatures could reduce economic growth by up to one-third over the next century.

Moreover, the assumption that economic damage from global warming is confined to the agriculture sector is no longer true, as climate change and environmental degradation pose significant risks to the macro economy and financial systems. For example, climate change will affect individual and household income, sectors of the economy, energy markets, inflation variability, financial markets, innovation, and rising public debt, among other things.

While rising global temperatures have a profound impact on economies all over the world, the phenomenon is still poorly understood due to the complexity of climate-related risks and their interactions with the real economy. Scientific studies are being conducted to estimate the impact of global warming on different sectors of the economy. However, there is consensus that macro-prudential measures are critical to mitigating climate-related risks, as without mitigation measures, physical risks from climate change-driven natural hazards — heatwaves, windstorms, floods, and droughts — are likely to increase significantly.

While the marginal effects of temperature rise are different in different regions, persistent increases in global temperature have serious implications for economic growth, productivity, and efficiency. However, the sensitivity of different economies to the impact of global warming depends on their reliance on different sectors of the economy, which can be susceptible to changing temperatures. Thus, climate change will be a critical factor in shaping responses to macroeconomic conditions in the near future.

Climate change can result in economic uncertainty.

Decarbonisation is no longer a matter of choice, as reducing carbon intensity in production processes and energy use is unavoidable to lower carbon emissions per unit of output produced and make production cleaner. Yet, the decarbonisation of economies for net-zero targets will affect both output and inflation, exerting changes in monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions in most countries. So, the key question for economy pundits, especially those from the developing world, is how to reduce carbon-intensive economic activity, without it having consequences for productivity, efficiency, and economic growth.

Climate change can potentially increase inflation and the debt-to-GDP ratio, resulting in economic uncertainty and tighter fiscal and monetary policies, which may lead to lower demand via lower spending and reduced economic activity. The transition to net zero would require the deployment of tools such as tax, subsidy, and regulation, resulting in increasing abatement costs. This can potentially generate relative price shocks, pushing up aggregate inflation, which is likely to necessitate changes in monetary policy, not to mention net-zero transition having an effect on inflation. Furthermore, the structural transformations required for the transition to net zero are expected to alter monetary policy channels.

Since climate change increases the frequency and severity of shocks, it may become very difficult for central banks to regularly read such shocks. In other words, identifying regular shocks — of an unknown nature — to the economy, will complicate the assessment of the monetary policy stance, which will often find itself confronting a trade-off between output and inflation stabilisation. Therefore, macroeconomic po­­licy responses must take into account the impact of ext­re­­me weather events, the decarbonisation of economies, and net-zero transition.

As the impact of climate change is regional and global, it may invoke structural adjustment processes that transcend national borders, thus necessitating assessment of macroeconomic implications and formulation of models that provide insight with regional and sectoral differentiation.

Existing analytical frameworks and macroeconomic modelling tools are inadequate and unsuitable for grappling with the dynamic nature of climate uncertainty and design-informed policy responses. Therefore, policymakers need to review and, where required, improve and align their toolkit to adapt to the new challenges.

Nevertheless, reducing uncertainty and creating an enabling environment to pacify reactions will be highly critical in the future as climate change will remain a major global risk for some time.

The writer has a PhD degree in economics from Durham University, UK. He is director of research programmes for the Social Protection Resource Centre, Islamabad.

Published in Dawn, July 1st, 2024

PAKISTAN
Ignoring solar and wind potential

Nasir Jamal 

Published July 1, 2024 

DAWN





Pakistan’s National Electricity Policy 2021 pledges that a “sustainable renewable energy market shall be developed, with a progressively increasing share in power generation as per the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) based on the least cost principle.”

However, the latest IGCEP 2024-34 iteration, which outlines the country’s future energy generation strategy over a 10-year horizon to ensure reliable and sustainable power supply, does quite the opposite. It drastically slashes the share of cost-effective variable renewable energy (VRE) — solar and wind — in the total energy mix and declares expensive hydropower, nuclear and imported and Thar coal-based generation schemes as “committed” or “strategic” in complete disregard of the principle of the least cost.


“The VRE share has been reduced to 13.3 per cent in the energy mix from the previously projected 29.6pc in IGCEP 2022-31 through a substantial decrease in the planned contribution of wind, solar and other VRE sources,” notes a briefing paper prepared by the Pakistan Renewable Energy Coalition (REC). Notably, the solar share, including net metering, is projected to drop to 10pc by 2034.

The paper “Neglected Potential: How the latest IGCEP fails renewable energy future in Sindh and Balochistan” says the new IGCEP version not just goes against the Alternate and Renewable Energy (ARE) Policy, 2019 target of raising the VRE share in the energy mix to 30pc by 2030 and breaches the principle of the least cost to hold down consumer electricity tariffs but also “disproportionately overlooks the renewable energy potential in Sindh and Balochistan, which threatens to undermine the regions’ economic development and the nation’s commitment to renewable energy targets”.


The new IGCEP plan drastically slashes the share of cost-effective variable renewable energy in Sindh and Balochistan

Divergence from policy targets on VRE integration sends negative market signals, hurting investor confidence in the renewables sector and impeding the development of a robust VRE market, violating national electric policy.

As per the World Bank’s “Variable Renewable Energy Integration and Planning Study”, the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimates the theoretical potential for wind generation in Pakistan at 340GW, mainly in Sindh and Balochistan.

For Balochistan, the situation is abysmal as currently no solar or wind projects have been installed there, and despite the immense solar and wind integration potential of 1050MW and 1850MW, respectively, at interconnection-ready sites requiring no grid strengthening, no capacity additions have been committed or optimised in IGCEP. According to the World Bank study, Balochistan’s realisable solar and wind potential when grid strengthening measures are in place could be as high as 3.5GW and 6GW, respectively, by 2030.

The new IGCEP also overlooks feeder-based distributed generation, battery energy storage systems, and hybrid renewable energy solutions, and the quantum of net metering has also been reduced. The IGCEP 2022 had indicated that hybrid RE technologies would be considered in future iterations based on their operational feasibility studies, but they have not been considered at all.

Further, the new IGCEP version raises concerns about its overreliance on hydropower, where 70pc of the committed projects are hydro-based. By 2034, the plan projects that 60pc of energy demand will be met by hydro compared to 25pc indicated in its 2020 iteration. Likewise, solar has dropped to 25pc from 34pc and wind share from nearly 18pc to 0.5pc, mostly at the cost of the renewable energy potential of Sindh and Balochistan. Hydropower and Thar coal are favoured for generation expansion for their “potential to lower consumer costs and enhance energy security”.

Moreover, the new IGCEP iteration declares most projects as strategic, giving them preferential treatment of “committed projects” in violation of the least cost principle. Resultantly, 19,138MW (99.95pc) out of the planned capacity additions of 19,224MW by 2034 is committed capacity.

Of these, the vast majority (20 projects worth 13,672MW) are large public sector hydro (11,462MW), nuclear (1,200MW), and imported coal projects (960MW) whose financial and economic costs have neither been disclosed, nor transparently modelled nor acknowledged in the expansion plan. Only 87MW (0.05pc) has been optimised on the least cost basis — and even this optimised 87MW will originate from two hydropower projects, the REC argues.

“The emphasis on hydropower and conventional power generation sources diminishes the renewable energy opportunities in Sindh and Balochistan,” says Ammar Qaseem, an energy specialist at Renewables First. He doesn’t agree with the argument, citing the lack of transmission infrastructure for ignoring Balochistan and Sindh’s VRE potential.

“The 20pc VRE target can be largely achieved by utilising spare capacity at existing substations, without the need for immediate grid upgrades by strategically building solar and wind power close to existing substations and transmission lines,” he adds.

Therefore, a re-evaluation of the IGCEP is essential to harness the full potential of Pakistan’s renewable resources and ensure a balanced and inclusive approach to energy and economic development. “This re-evaluation would enable Sindh and Balochistan to leverage their renewable energy potential, driving regional development and contributing significantly to Pakistan’s overall energy landscape,” the REC concludes.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, July 1st, 2024