Mobile phone data helps track pathogen spread and evolution of superbugs

Combining genomic data and human travel patterns over a 14-year period in South Africa reveals key insights into the spread, evolution and resistance patterns of a major bacterium behind pneumonia and meningitis globally

WELLCOME TRUST SANGER INSTITUTE

 

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CONCEPTUAL CARTOON DRAWING SHOWING BACTERIA LINING UP AT AIRPORT SECURITY, HIGHLIGHTING THE MOVEMENT OR SPREAD OF PATHOGENS

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CREDIT: PETRA KORLEVIC

A new way to map the spread and evolution of pathogens, and their responses to vaccines and antibiotics, will provide key insights to help predict and prevent future outbreaks. The approach combines a pathogen’s genomic data with human travel patterns, taken from anonymised mobile phone data.

Researchers from the Wellcome Sanger Institute, University of the Witwatersrand and National Institute for Communicable Diseases in South Africa, the University of Cambridge, and partners across the Global Pneumococcal Sequencing project1, integrated genomic data from nearly 7,000 Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) samples collected in South Africa with detailed human mobility data2. This enabled them to see how these bacteria, which cause pneumonia and meningitis3, move between regions and evolve over time.

The findings, published today (3 July) in Nature, suggest initial reductions in antibiotic resistance linked to the 2009 pneumococcal vaccine may be only temporary, as non-targeted strains resistant to antibiotics such as penicillin gained a 68 per cent competitive advantage.

This is the first time researchers have been able to precisely quantify the fitness – their ability to survive and reproduce – of different pneumococcal strains. The insight could inform vaccine development to target the most harmful strains, and may be applicable to other pathogens.

Many infectious diseases such as tuberculosis, HIV, and COVID-19 exist in multiple strains or variants circulating simultaneously, making them difficult to study. Pneumococcus, a bacterium that is a leading cause of pneumonia, meningitis, and sepsis worldwide4, is a prime example with over 100 types and 900 genetic strains globally. Pneumonia alone kills around 740,000 children under the age of five each year5, making it the single largest infectious cause of death in children.

Pneumococcal diversity hampers control efforts, as vaccines targeting major strains leave room for others to fill the vacant niches. How these bacteria spread, how vaccines affect their survival, and their resistance to antibiotics remains poorly understood.

In this new study, researchers analysed genome sequences from 6,910 pneumococcus samples collected in South Africa between 2000 and 2014 to track the distribution of different strains over time. They combined these data with anonymised records of human travel patterns collected by Meta2.

The team developed computational models which revealed pneumococcal strains take around 50 years to fully mix throughout South Africa’s population, largely due to localised human movement patterns.

They found that while introduction of a pneumococcal vaccine against certain types of these bacteria in 2009 reduced the number of cases caused by those types6, it also made other non-targeted strains of these bacteria gain a 68 per cent competitive advantage, with an increasing proportion of them becoming resistant to antibiotics such as penicillin. This suggests that the vaccine-linked protection against antibiotic resistance is short-lived.

Dr Sophie Belman, first author of the study, former PhD student at the Wellcome Sanger Institute and now a Schmidt Science Fellow at the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, Spain, said: “While we found that pneumococcal bacteria generally spread slowly, the use of vaccines and antimicrobials can quickly and significantly change these dynamics. Our models could be applied to other regions and pathogens to better understand and predict pathogen spread, in the context of drug resistance and vaccine effectiveness.”

Dr Anne von Gottberg, author of the study at National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Johannesburg, South Africa, said: “Despite vaccination efforts, pneumonia remains one of the leading causes of death for children under five in South Africa. With continuous genomic surveillance and adaptable vaccination strategies to counter the remarkable adaptability of these pathogens, we may be able to better target interventions to limit the burden of disease.”

Professor Stephen Bentley, senior author of the study at the Wellcome Sanger Institute, said: “The pneumococcus's diversity has obscured our view on how any given strain spreads from one region to the next. This integrated approach using bacterial genome and human travel data finally allows us to cut through that complexity, uncovering hidden migratory paths in high-definition for the first time. This could allow researchers to anticipate where emerging high-risk strains may take hold next, putting us a step ahead of potential outbreaks.”

ENDS

Notes to Editors:

1. Partners from the Global Pneumococcal Sequencing project can be found here:  https://www.pneumogen.net/gps/
    
2. The human mobility data used in this study are Meta Data for Good baseline data, released during the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. These data rely on personal consent for location sharing, and Data for Good ensures individual privacy by preventing re-identification in aggregated datasets.
   For more information on the Movement Range Maps, access: https://dataforgood.fb.com/tools/movement-range-maps/
   For more information on privacy matters, access: https://about.fb.com/news/2020/06/privacy-matters-data-for-good/ 
    
3. For more information on pneumococcal disease, visit: https://www.cdc.gov/pneumococcal/about/index.html
    
4. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5666185/
    
5. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/pneumonia
    
6. Before these vaccines, 85 per cent of pneumococcal strains were those targeted by the vaccines. By 2014, this dropped to 33.2 per cent. This change was consistent across all nine provinces in South Africa.

These data can be accessed here: https://github.com/sophbel/geomig_evo_pneumo

Publication:
S. Belman et al. (2024) ‘Geographic Migration and Fitness Dynamics of Streptococcus pneumonia.’ Nature. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07626-3

Funding:
This research was supported by Wellcome, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, NIH and the European Research Council. For full funding acknowledgements, please refer to the publication.

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JOURNAL

Nature

DOI

10.1038/s41586-024-07626-3 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Cells

ARTICLE TITLE

Geographic Migration and Fitness Dynamics of Streptococcus pneumonia

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

3-Jul-2024

 

Extinct humans survived on the Tibetan plateau for 160,000 years

UNIVERSITY OF READING

Bone remains found in a Tibetan cave 3,280 m above sea level indicate an ancient group of humans survived here for many millennia, according to a new study published in Nature.  

The Denisovans are an extinct species of ancient human that lived at the same time and in the same places as Neanderthals and Homo sapiens. Only a handful Denisovan remains have ever been discovered by archaeologists. Little is known about the group, including when they became extinct, but evidence exists to suggest they interbred with both Neanderthals and Homo sapiens. 

A research team led by Lanzhou University, China, the University of Copenhagen, Denmark, the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, CAS, China, and involving the University of Reading studied more than 2,500 bones from the Baishiya Karst Cave on the high-altitude Tibetan Plateau, one of the only two places where Denisovans are known to have lived.  

Their new analysis, published today (Wednesday, 3 July) in Nature, has identified a new Denisovan fossil and shed light on the species’ ability to survive in fluctuating climatic conditions — including the ice age — on the Tibetan plateau from around 200,000 to 40,000 years ago. 

Dr Geoff Smith, a zooarchaeologist at the University of Reading, is a co-author of the study. He said: “We were able to identify that Denisovans hunted, butchered and ate a range of animal species. Our study reveals new information about the behaviour and adaptation of Denisovans both to high altitude conditions and shifting climates. We are only just beginning to understand the behaviour of this extraordinary human species.” 

Dietary diversity 

Bone remains from Baishya Karst Cave were broken into numerous fragments preventing identification. The team used a novel scientific method that exploits differences in bone collagen between animals to determine which species the bone remains came from.  

Dr Huan Xia, of Lanzhou University, said: “Zooarchaeology by Mass Spectrometry (ZooMS) allows us to extract valuable information from often overlooked bone fragments, providing deeper insight into human activities.”  

The research team determined that most of the bones were from blue sheep, known as the bharal, as well as wild yaks, equids, the extinct woolly rhino, and the spotted hyena. The researchers also identified bone fragments from small mammals, such as marmots, and birds.  

Dr Jian Wang, of Lanzhou University, said: “Current evidence suggests that it was Denisovans, not any other human groups, who occupied the cave and made efficient use of all the animal resources available to them throughout their occupation.”  

Detailed analysis of the fragmented bone surfaces shows the Denisovans removed meat and bone marrow from the bones, but also indicate the humans used them as raw material to produce tools.  

A new Denisovan fossil 

The scientists also identified one rib bone as belonging to a new Denisovan individual. The layer where the rib was found was dated to between 48,000 and 32,000 years ago, implying that this Denisovan individual lived at a time when modern humans were dispersing across the Eurasian continent. The results indicate that Denisovans lived through two cold periods, but also during a warmer interglacial period between the Middle and Late Pleistocene eras.   

Dr Frido Welker, of the University of Copenhagen, said: “Together, the fossil and molecular evidence indicates that Ganjia Basin, where Baishiya Karst Cave is located, provided a relatively stable environment for Denisovans, despite its high-altitude. 

"The question now arises when and why these Denisovans on the Tibetan Plateau went extinct.” 

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JOURNAL

Nature

DOI

10.1038/s41586-024-07612-9 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Middle and Late Pleistocene Denisovan subsistence at Baishiya Karst Cave

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

3-Jul-2024

 

Mighty floods of the Nile River during warmer and wetter climates

Sediment cores off the Nile mouth reveal insights into the effects and causes of heavy rainfall episodes about 9,000 years ago. That will help to prepare for weather extremes in a changing climate

GFZ GEOFORSCHUNGSZENTRUM POTSDAM, HELMHOLTZ CENTRE

 

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WATERFALL ON THE BLUE NILE RIVER IN WEST GOJJAM, AMHARA REGION, ETHIOPIA. THIS REGION IS THREATENED BY NATURAL HAZARDS SUCH AS FLOODING DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE.
 

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CREDIT: COPY RIGHT: CCBY 2.0 GIUSTINO

Summary

Global warming as well as recent droughts and floods threaten large populations along the Nile Valley. Understanding how such a large river will respond to an invigorated hydrological cycle is therefore a pressing issue. Insights can be gained by studying past periods with wetter and warmer conditions, such as the North African Humid Period eleven to six thousand years ago. A research team of the German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ, led by Cécile Blanchet, together with colleagues at the University of Innsbruck (Austria) and the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (Germany) analysed a 1,500 year long annually-laminated sediment core. The study was published today in Nature Geoscience.

It reveals that wetter climates led to very strong and weak floods and a highly instable river system, which may have rendered the Nile valley uninhabitable. Although intensified, flood variability was paced by similar climatic forcing as today, operating on annual – like El Niño – to multi-decadal timescales. This suggests that the occurrence of such extreme events might be predictable helping to reduce risks for local populations.

Background: Nile River floods and climate change

The iconic floods of the Nile River are often associated to the development of irrigation and agriculture in pharaonic Egypt. Today, seasonal rainfall and flooding remain crucial to sustain large populations in the Nile Valley, from the Equator to the Mediterranean coast.

Climate models predict a large increase in monsoonal rainfall in this region due to global warming for all climatic scenarios. Recent episodes of droughts and flooding in Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt have raised concerns about an increase in rainfall variability leading to such geohazards. Being one of the most densely populated area on Earth, it is critical to design reliable forecasting tools and plan adequate infrastructure based on informed-knowledge and process understanding of rainfall and flood changes.

To tackle these issues, it is important to understand how large river systems will respond to enhanced rainfall. Insights can be gained from studying past time intervals that were known to be wetter and warmer than the present. A well-known example is the North African Humid Period during the Early Holocene, about 11 to 6 thousand years ago, characterised by a large increase in rainfall in northeastern Africa. 

Unique sediment core provides annual inside into ancient Nile River floods

To access these ancient times, Cécile Blanchet and colleagues of the German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ, together with Arne Ramisch (University of Innsbruck) and Monica Ionita (Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, AWI) have analysed a unique sediment core collected right off the Nile mouth that recorded past floods. These seasonal floods brought varying amounts of fluvial particulate matter offshore, which were preserved as fine laminations. The core was taken in 2008 and dated back to the North African Humid Period.

“Relics of such geological times provide researchers a natural laboratory to test and improve predictions from climate models”, explains Cécile Blanchet. “This type of layered sediment is often found in lakes, and the GFZ is internationally known for having the technical and scientific expertise to analyse them. This one is unique because these are marine sediments recording past Nile floods at an annual resolution. So, I decided to come to the GFZ and set to explore this beautiful record.”

Sediment core analysis

Analysis of the cores comprised looking at the layers, counting and measuring them under the microscope – part of which was also done at home during the Covid-lockdowns. The chronology was constrained using a combination of annual layer counting and radiocarbon dating of fossil plankton buried in the layers.

Blanchet quickly realised that the thickness of the flood layers was varying drastically in time spans of 30-40 years, from being very small (0,3 mm) to being very thick (10 mm).

“It may sound not so much, but several millimetres deposited offshore is enormous,” says Blanchet. “However, we know that large rivers are complicated systems, which may retain or release sediments independently of the discharge, that is the amount of water in the river. So, it is not always possible to relate the volume of sediments transported, expressed in our record as the thickness of the layers, to the size of the flood. But we noticed as well that the size of the particles increased in thicker layers, which means that the thickness of the layers is a reliable indicator of the strength of past floods.”

From her observations, Blanchet concluded that the North African Humid Period was characterised by the occurrence of extremely strong and variable Nile floods. Especially between 9,200 and 8,600 years ago, the dominance of thick flood layers depicts a period of strong erosional activity and the deposition of large amounts of particulate matter offshore, about two to three times as much as in the later years.

Influence of the El Niño climate oscillation

Joining forces with statisticians and modellers at the GFZ and the AWI allowed the team not only to determine the effects but also the drivers of flood variability. Using modelling of past sea-level changes done at GFZ, the researchers could exclude that any of these effects was driven by sea-level changes rather than the fluvial activity of the Nile.

Analysing the data with statistical methods revealed several characteristic oscillations: on a shorter timescale with periodicities of 2-7 years, and on a longer time scale of several decades. This suggests that the floods were modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on multi-annual timescales and a yet unidentified driver on multi-decadal timescales.

“ENSO originates in the Pacific region and is transmitted to other parts of the World by atmospheric teleconnections”, said co-author Monica Ionita from the AWI. “It was fascinating to see that we could find this variability both in the model and in the data.”

Comparison with Nilometer flood data from the past 2000 years

The researchers compared their flood-record data from the time between 9,470 and 7,940 years before present, with data from the ancient Egyptians, recorded between 622 and 1922 CE, especially with regard to the oscillations: 

“The fact that ancient Egyptians measured the level of the Nile River in special buildings called ‘Nilometers‘ – see picture 2 – year after year is really fascinating and they have offered us a unique record of past Nile floods in the last 2,000 years,” said co-author Arne Ramisch, previously at GFZ and now at the University of Innsbruck. “The resolution and length of both records being similar, we could apply similar statistical tools and derive the main temporal variabilities. It showed us that the drivers remain quite similar even though the climatic conditions were different.”

This comparison shows that similar climate drivers can have very different effects, namely a much higher amplitude of flood magnitude under wetter and warmer climates. This is one of the main findings of the study. And it has important implications for building reliable tools to forecast and reduce flood risks.

“I am sure that our findings will have direct applications and we are already working on providing constraints on flood magnitude based on the record we have. This is not trivial but with the help of modellers and geomorphologists, I am confident that we will tackle this new challenge,” concludes Cécile Blanchet.

Ancient Egyptians measured the level in the Nile River every year in the so-called “Nilometers” that were located in the lower Nile Valley. The purpose of these measurements was to forecast the harvest. These unique records of yearly floods cover a large part of the Common Era and have provided insights into the climatic drivers of Nile floods. Because the Nilometer records and the here presented new record of past floods have an annual resolution and length, we could compare the pacemakers under different climatic conditions.

CREDIT

Copyright: CCBY-SA Baldiri

Funding: The work of Cécile Blanchet has been supported through the reintegration grant “Annual Nile floods during the African Humid Period” by the GFZ Potsdam.

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JOURNAL

Nature Geoscience

DOI

10.1038/s41561-024-01471-9 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Experimental study

 CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M

Regulation needed to curb favoritism between countries and credit rating agencies, new research suggests

Countries are rated more highly when their finance ministers know credit ratings agency executives

HERIOT-WATT UNIVERSITY

 

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PROFESSOR PATRYCJA KLUSAK OF EDINBURGH BUSINESS SCHOOL AT HERIOT-WATT UNIVERSITY.

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CREDIT: HERIOT-WATT UNIVERSITY

A country’s financial health is rated more highly when its finance minister knows top executives in credit ratings agencies, new research led by Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh suggests.

Patrycja Klusak, an expert in credit ratings agencies and Professor of Accounting and Finance at the University’s Edinburgh Business School, says there is an inherent ‘favouritism’ problem in the business model of credit ratings agencies. This builds up when the directors and executives of credit ratings agencies have ongoing or past professional connections with particular finance ministers. For example, when a ratings agency executive and finance minister worked together in the same organisation, or are former colleagues.

Countries where a finance minister has these links are associated with higher ratings than countries without these professional connections, the research concludes. The upside is particularly pronounced for developing countries, which can be rated up to seven times more highly than the equivalent impact for developed countries.

The findings are based on an analysis of professional connections between finance ministers and the top executives of the three largest credit rating agencies – Fitch, Moody’s, and S&P – for 38 European countries between January 2000 and November 2017. The research, Politicians’ connections and sovereign credit ratings, is published in the Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money and is co-authored by Dr Yurtsev Uymaz, Associate Professor in Finance with Norwich Business School at University of East Anglia and Rasha Alsakka, Professor in Banking & Finance with Bangor Business School at Bangor University.

“The ratings applied to a country’s financial health are hugely important because they help that country – and its banks and businesses – to access capital and borrow money at affordable rates,” Professor Klusak explains. “They also underpin direct investment flows into big national projects and affect the efficiency and stability of capital markets across borders.

“If ratings agencies are consciously or unconsciously inflating their ratings of particular countries, it’s a problem, because for financial markets to work properly, buyers of government debt need to know the true creditworthiness of that country.”

The European sovereign debt crisis of 2010–12 exposed the risk of excessive national borrowing fuelling a collapse in confidence that can spill over into other countries and their corporations, banks and financial assets, Professor Klusak says. 

The crisis began with the collapse of Iceland’s banking system in 2008 and led to financial bailouts in Greece, Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus. “Drastic sovereign rating downgrades” in Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain were key to this and “shook the stock markets,” the research notes.

European regulators scrutinised ratings agencies in the aftermath of this crisis, particularly the conflict of interest when countries pay agencies to rate them, and get a seat on ratings agency committees as a result. This practice, known as solicited ratings, leads to higher ratings than unsolicited ratings, the research finds. Issuing higher ratings may help the ratings agency attract more business from that country, while countries in turn are safeguarding the health of their economy through higher ratings.

Professor Klusak says the research is the first to unveil how lower credit ratings for developing countries can be influenced by credit agencies using ‘soft’ information – for example, a discussion with the country about its financial prospects and management policies – in addition to hard economic or fiscal data, such as gross domestic product.

“Developing countries can be more uncertain and opaque, with less available data,” Professor Klusak explains. “So ratings agencies need to be more conservative in their analysis. But, when presented with professional connections, these nations benefit more from higher ratings than their developed counterparts.”

The research finds that, for developed countries, business ties to ratings agencies can add roughly between one to two-thirds of a notch – classification – to their ratings across S&P, Moody’s and Fitch. For developing countries, the boost is seven, two and four times bigger respectively than the equivalent for developed countries.

The research has “wide-ranging implications” for regulators, governments, market participants and credit rating agencies, Professor Klusak says. During election times, voters are also more interested in news about a country’s financial health, because it “infers the quality of incumbent governments,” she adds.

The paper calls for new rules to ensure that sovereign ratings – credit ratings of countries – are objective and independent from the rating of other asset types, like corporate loans, to avoid conflicts of interest.

Working conditions for sovereign ratings teams should also be improved – because these teams face “immense pressure” to release ratings which might bring in other business from that country – for example from its corporations and financial institutions, the researchers say.

The study contributes towards the “scarce literature” investigating professional connections in the rating industry, the researchers conclude.

Professor Klusak has been researching the behaviour and regulation of credit ratings agencies for more than ten years. Her work also explores climate and biodiversity loss and its effect on future credit ratings of countries. Before joining Heriot-Watt University, Dr Klusak was an Associate Professor in Banking and Finance with Norwich Business School at the University of East Anglia, where she has been based for eight years. Professor Klusak is also an Affiliated Researcher at the Bennett Institute for Public Policy, a public policy research institute at the University of Cambridge.

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JOURNAL

Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions and Money

DOI

10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102022 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Politicians’ connections and sovereign credit ratings

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

1-Jul-2024

COI STATEMEN

 

Tax on antibiotics could help tackle threat of drug-resistance

UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA

Taxing certain antibiotics could help efforts to tackle the escalating threat of antibiotic resistance in humans, according to a new study by the University of East Anglia’s Centre for Competition Policy, Loughborough University and E.CA Economics.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a significant global risk, causing an estimated 700,000 deaths annually. A  key AMR report previously warned that if unchecked, it could endanger 10 million lives a year and result in $100 trillion in lost economic output by 2050.

Human use of antibiotics is the primary driver of AMR, with the majority in the UK prescribed via GPs. Classified as narrow or broad-spectrum, narrow-spectrum drugs target specific bacteria, helping slow AMR but require knowing the organism causing the infection. Broad-spectrum antibiotics are used more generally when the organism is unknown, exacerbating AMR.

The UK government report, published in 2016, recommended testing for pathogens before prescribing and using narrow-spectrum drugs when appropriate, with costly or time-consuming testing leading to overprescribing of broad-spectrum antibiotics and contributing to AMR levels.

In this new study, economists examined the feasibility of ‘taxing’ GP surgeries for using particular broad-spectrum drugs – the idea being that when they prescribe them, the amount charged to their drug budget would be higher by the amount of the tax. 

Writing in the International Journal of Industrial Organization, they argue that because GPs can choose which drug to prescribe this could encourage greater use of narrow-spectrum drugs as well as aim to reduce testing time and costs. It could also potentially help manage the demand for antibiotics by adjusting the relative pricing of the drugs.

Co-author Prof Farasat Bokhari, previously of UEA’s School of Economics and now at Loughborough University, said: “Antibiotic resistance is an important issue and a priority for UK health policy. It’s possibly the next ticking time bomb in the healthcare system.  

“In our analysis, the financial burden of the tax is not on the patients but rather on the GP practices who may be overprescribing in some cases. Our findings show that switching from broad to narrow-spectrum is possible via changes in relative prices brought about via taxation, but it has implications - in terms of the total cost to society.

“While the alternative tax regimes we consider differ in how much demand will shift, our estimates suggest that these policies can be highly effective in managing that demand.”

The researchers stress that such tax policies should not be implemented without allowing for exemptions based on the severity of the disease, which the physicians could certify. They also acknowledge that if decisions are time-critical and it is not an option to wait for a precise diagnostic test to know which narrow-spectrum antibiotic to prescribe, this may slow the switch from broad to narrow-spectrum.

The study draws on 10 years of monthly sales data for antibiotics dispensed in UK pharmacies and uses economic models to assess substitution patterns between different antibiotics, together with the impact of prices, seasonality, spectrum, and other characteristics of a drug on its demand.

It looked at the impact of two types of taxes on different groups of drugs. Firstly, a percentage tax (5% or 20%) on all antibiotics, all broad-spectrum antibiotics, and specific broad-spectrum antibiotics known to contribute most to antibiotic resistance (co-amoxiclav, quinolones, and cephalosporins). Secondly, a fixed amount of tax per unit of the drug.

A 20% tax on all antibiotics reduces total antibiotic use by 12.7%. However, it only reduces the use of the most problematic broad-spectrum antibiotics by 29.4%. This tax results in a consumer welfare loss, that is, the difference between what an individual is willing to pay and what they actually pay, of £322 per 1000 people, which amounts to about £19.9 million a year in the UK.

However, if the same 20% tax is applied only to the broad-spectrum antibiotics that contribute most to antibiotic resistance, their use drops by 37.7%, and the overall antibiotic use drops by only 2.38% because most patients switch to narrow-spectrum drugs. This more targeted tax results in a smaller consumer welfare loss of £78.2 per 1000 people, or £4.8 million a year.

Lead author Dr Weijie Yan, at E.CA Economics, said: “The consumer welfare loss and overall welfare loss from taxing these antibiotics are significant, however they are relatively small compared to the predicted societal costs of antibiotic resistance in terms of deaths and economic losses.

“While our simulations show how much demand is shifted from broad to narrow-spectrum, and at what cost, it does not calculate the long-term benefits of switching to drugs with a lower AMR footprint.

“It is also clear that the estimated loss in welfare is much smaller than previous estimates of worldwide costs, and so it may be well worth considering such remedies to shift demand to narrow-spectrum drugs.”

'Antibacterial resistance and the cost of affecting demand: the case of UK antibiotics', Farasat A.S. Bokhari, Franco Mariuzzo, Weijie Yan is published in the International Journal of Industrial Organization.

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JOURNAL

International Journal of Industrial Organization

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

ARTICLE TITLE

'Antibacterial resistance and the cost of affecting demand: the case of UK antibiotics

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

2-Jul-2024

Disclaimer: AAAS

 

How to promote menstrual cups as an economic and sustainable option

Researchers investigate consumers’ preferences on menstrual products and devise guidelines to bolster the adoption of menstrual cups in different countries.

RITSUMEIKAN UNIVERSITY

 

IMAGE: 

MENSTRUAL CUPS ARE SUSTAINABLE ALTERNATIVES TO SINGLE-USE MENSTRUAL PRODUCTS, BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR WHY THEIR ADOPTION IS NOT VERY WIDESPREAD. IN THIS STUDY, RESEARCHERS ANALYZED CONSUMERS’ PREFERENCES WHEN PROVIDED WITH DIFFERENT TYPES OF INFORMATION REGARDING MENSTRUAL PRODUCTS, SEEKING TO UNDERSTAND THEIR DECISION MAKING AND COME UP WITH EFFECTIVE PROMOTIONAL STRATEGIES.

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CREDIT: TAKURO UEHARA FROM RITSUMEIKAN UNIVERSITY

In recent decades, single-use plastics have pervaded modern societies, causing a significant surge in plastic pollution that exacts a heavy toll on our environment. Addressing this issue requires prioritizing sustainable alternatives to single-use plastics wherever feasible.

Disposable menstrual products are a notable contributor to plastic waste, with billions of sanitary napkins and tampons being discarded every year. Despite the availability of sustainable options like menstrual cups (MCs), consumer preference for single-use products remains dominant across many countries. Many possible reasons for this have been reported in previous studies, such as inadequate awareness of MCs' maintenance and their environmental benefits, as well as preconceived notions about comfort and health impacts. However, it is not entirely clear how consumers incorporate these factors when deciding which menstrual products to purchase, which in turn makes it harder to devise effective promotional campaigns for MCs.

To address this knowledge gap, an international research team set out to understand how different information on menstrual products affects the decision making of consumers in different countries. Their study was published on June 24, 2024, in Volume 5 of Frontiers in Sustainability. Led by Professor Takuro Uehara from Ritsumeikan University, in collaboration with Ms. Sitadhira Prima Citta from Ritsumeikan University, Dr. Mateo Cordier from Université de Versailles-Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Dr. Takahiro Tsuge from Sophia University, and Dr. Misuzu Asari from Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, the study employed large-scale online surveys and discrete choice experiments (DCE) to explore consumer decision-making across France, Japan, and Indonesia—countries with diverse socioeconomic and cultural contexts. Simply put, participants of the online surveys were presented with three options for menstrual products, namely MCs, sanitary napkins, and tampons. Different groups of participants also received different types of information regarding the products, such as their human health and environmental impact, and cost-effectiveness of MCs.

After analyzing the survey results, the researchers found that providing information about the superior cost-effectiveness of MCs was quite impactful in all three countries. “While sanitary napkins remain the most commonly used menstrual products in the surveyed countries, our study revealed that emphasizing the economic benefits of MCs can enhance their adoption compared to health and environmental benefits information,” states Uehara, “This shows that tailored information efforts emphasizing on cost saving could play a crucial role in promoting the use of MCs as sustainable menstrual products.”

The researchers then considered potential strategies to turn MCs into consumers’ menstrual product of choice. “Government and non-profit organizations could launch educational campaigns highlighting the long-term financial benefits of MCs over disposable products, using health professionals, companies, and media outlets to spread this information. Placing cost-per-use information near MCs at points of purchase, a strategy known as simplification and framing, may also nudge consumers towards sustainable products,” muses Uehara.   

It is worth noting that the research team also explored the necessity of developing tailored strategies for each country, taking into account differences in consumers and markets. For instance, in Japan, influencer marketing and educational initiatives could effectively address public apprehensions and limited knowledge about MCs. In France, marketing efforts should emphasize the ease of use, comfort, and adaptability of MCs to an active lifestyle. Meanwhile, in Indonesia, where availability may pose a challenge, promoting locally produced MCs could not only boost adoption but also support small- and medium-sized enterprises.

Finally, Uehara notes the importance of equitable access and information if MCs are to become a mainstay. “The free provision of MCs can significantly enhance their adoption and help alleviate period poverty, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. However, these initiatives must ensure that the introduction of free MCs is accompanied by educational efforts to inform users about their benefits and maintenance requirements,” he concludes.

These efforts will hopefully lead to better marketing and promotional strategies for MCs, ultimately helping to create a more sustainable society free of plastic pollution.

 

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Reference

Title of original paper: Promoting menstrual cups as a sustainable alternative: A comparative study using a labeled discrete choice experiment

Journal: Frontiers in Sustainability

DOI: 10.3389/frsus.2024.1391491

 

About Ritsumeikan University, Japan

Ritsumeikan University is one of the most prestigious private universities in Japan. Its main campus is in Kyoto, where inspiring settings await researchers. With an unwavering objective to generate social symbiotic values and emergent talents, it aims to emerge as a next-generation research university. It will enhance researcher potential by providing support best suited to the needs of young and leading researchers, according to their career stage. Ritsumeikan University also endeavors to build a global research network as a “knowledge node” and disseminate achievements internationally, thereby contributing to the resolution of social/humanistic issues through interdisciplinary research and social implementation.

Website: http://en.ritsumei.ac.jp/

Ritsumeikan University Research Report: https://www.ritsumei.ac.jp/research/radiant/eng/

 

About Professor Takuro Uehara from Ritsumeikan University, Japan

Takuro Uehara obtained M.S. in Economics and PhD in Systems Science/Economics from Portland State University in 2011 and 2012, respectively. He joined Ritsumeikan University in 2013, where he currently serves as Professor at the College of Policy Science. His research interests are diverse, including plastic waste, electric waste, ecosystem services, relational values, and the sustainability assessment of coastal zones. He has employed various quantitative methods, system dynamics techniques, agent-based simulations, and stated preference methods. He has published over 50 papers in peer reviewed journals.

 

Funding information

This research was funded by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan [grant number JPMEERF21S11920].

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JOURNAL

Frontiers in Sustainability

DOI

10.3389/frsus.2024.1391491 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Survey

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Promoting menstrual cups as a sustainable alternative: A comparative study using a labeled discrete choice experiment

 

Climate change drives tree species towards colder, wetter regions

UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM

Climate change is likely to drive tree species towards colder and wetter regions of their geographical distribution, a new study has shown. 

The research, led by the University of Alcalá (UAH), in Spain, and including researchers at the University of Birmingham, draws together data from across Europe and North America to show that tree species in the Northern Hemisphere are starting to become denser in colder and wetter regions. 

The study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) provides the first quantitative evidence that climate change is driving this change in the numbers of trees of each species across temperate forests on a continental scale. 

The researchers analyzed data from over two million trees, representing 73 species widely distributed across Europe and the United States. They investigated whether changes in tree density could be attributed to specific characteristics of each species, such as tolerance to arid conditions, or their capacity to disperse. Importantly, however, the study did not identify any single trait of the tree species as being decisive for these changes.  

“This lack of a definitive trait suggests that most species possess a degree of acclimation capability,” says Julen Astigarraga, from UAH and lead author of the study. 

Understanding how forest species are responding to climate change through increasing their density in these more northerly regions is essential for planning ecosystem conservation, management and restoration. 

“Some tree species which are currently used for ecosystem restoration in Europe may no longer be suitable in these regions in the near future,” says co-author Dr Thomas Pugh, of the University of Birmingham and Lund University. “In addition, massive reforestation programmes planned as a solution for capturing and storing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere might be limited in their effectiveness if they do not account for these responses.” 

The study represented a significant international collaboration, with scientists from 12 countries, and data analysis from more than 125,000 forest plots across Europe and North America. 

Adriane Esquivel Muelbert, an expert in forest ecology at the University of Birmingham and co-author on the paper, said: “This study required a significant international effort to pull together and harmonise data from many different sources. The data from these forest inventories is crucial for advancing our understanding of forest dynamics and their resilience to climate change.” 

The study was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, and by the European Research Council’s TreeMort project. It included data and analysis from the Spanish National Forest Inventory, the Flemish Forest Inventory, the CzechTerra Landscape Inventory, the Finnish Forest Health Monitoring Network, the Dutch Forest Inventory, the Polish National Forest Inventory, the Swedish National Forest Inventory, and the United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis research program. 

ENDS 

For media enquiries please contact Tony Moran, International Communications Manager, University of Birmingham, tel: +44 (0)121 414 2772: email: t.moran@bham.ac.uk  

Notes to editor: 

• The University of Birmingham is ranked amongst the world’s top 100 institutions. Its work brings people from across the world to Birmingham, including researchers, teachers and more than 8,000 international students from over 150 countries. 

• ‘Relative decline in density of Northern Hemisphere tree species in warm and arid regions of their climate niches’ - Julen Astigarraga, et al is published by Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). 

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JOURNAL

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

ARTICLE TITLE

‘Relative decline in density of Northern Hemisphere tree species in warm and arid regions of their climate niches’

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

2-Jul-2024