How is Biden's retreat perceived in Africa?

HE IS YOUNG COMPARED TO AFRIKAN LEADERS

Isaac Kaledz

DW

JULY 23,2024

Joe Biden and his US administration sought to strengthen America's ties with Africa. His decision to bow out has attracted a lot of praise, and many Africans seem excited about Kamala Harris replacing him in the race.

What can Africa learn from Biden's eventual - albeit reluctant - humility?

Image: Kevin Lamarque/REUTERS


Incumbent US President Joe Biden's announcement to withdraw from the US presidential race has been hailed as a smart move by many, though there has also been some criticism that he took the decision to exit so late into the campaign.

Biden only left the race after coming under intense pressure from within the ranks of his own party, which according to pollsters would otherwise have been struggling to retain the presidency in the upcoming November election.

Even though the US elections are literally oceans away, many Africans have also expressed a proactive interest in following the election drama in the US. But for some people in Africa, the race nevertheless is closer to home than others.

"It is obvious that his health is not a 100% and he deserves time to heal and not take on the burdens of the whole world," says Patricia Wilkins, an African-American who has been based in Ghana for the past two decades.

"I am very grateful for Joe Biden's long service to our country and his dedication to the Democratic Party."

What made Joe Biden change his mind?  04:40

Excitement for Harris' candidacy

Since Sunday's announcement, Joe Biden has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for the presidential nomination. Harris now looks all set to become the nominee for the Democratic Party.

For many, the prospect of a female US President with roots in Africa, the Caribbean and India, is an exciting prospect.

"I am thrilled at the prospects of Kamala Harris stepping up as a new candidate. Her experience, her resilience, her commitment to justice and equality make her an exceptional leader," says Wilkens, adding that she's been "excited for the past days because of this news."

Wilkins runs an NGO that supports less priviledged students in Ghana. Her enthusiasm for Harris is linked to her work: Some of her students got to meet the current vice president on her recent trip to Africa.

That is closer to a presidential candidate than most people get to be in their entire lifetimes..

US Democrats move to support Harris for presidential race  02:32

 

Africa's old men's club

The prospect of a dynamic new leader in the White House might meanwhile inspire at least some Africans to reflect about the leadership they have back home.

Africa is home to some of the world's oldest leaders. There's 91-year-old Paul Biya in Cameroon, 81-year-old Emmerson Mnangagwa in Cameroon, and 78-year-old Abdelmadjid Tebboune in Algeria — to name but a few.


With Biden's age seen as the chief reason for dropping out, some — especially younger generations — hope this could be a lesson for others.

"We shouldn't be seeing 80-year-old men seeking re-election and traveling around the country campaigning. Your body always has a closing time; when your body closes you have to sit at home," says Cyril Anane, a university student in Accra, Ghana's capital.

"We should be more concerned about pushing our leaders to learn from some of these things because leadership is not a birthright." he adds, emphasizing that leaders like Biden have to learn to know when to "sit back and let fresher blood come in and take over."

"I think a leader should actually recognize when it is time for them to step aside for the greater good. Clinching to power only invites riducle and it actually harms the nation as a whole," says Tom-Chris Emewulu, a Nigerian social entepreneur, adding that Biden's debate performance "was particularly of huge concern."

"The recent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump further reduced his chances of winning the election," he told DW.

Partnerships with Africa

Emewulu is the founder of an initiative in Ghana called Stars From All Nations (SFAN), which tries to combat youth unemployment. For him, national partnerships are important to help young people.

Emewelu recognizes that the Biden Administration had firmly placed Africa on its agenda as a major priority — especially when compared to previous President Trump, who became known for making disparaging remarks about the continent, for which he is yet to apologize.

Still, he believes that Africa "should focus on negotiating favorable trade partnerships with whoever wins the next election."

Harris' candidacy has caused quite a buzz, even in Africa

Image: Erin Schaff via REUTERS

With Biden now out of the race, some analysts think that African issues might even move further into the forefront of US policy.

"I think the implications [of Biden's withdrawal] are huge. This means that during the campaign period for the next four months, there will be a lot of discussion about African issues based in large parts on Biden and the Biden administration's policies towards Africa," says Dr. Christopher Fomunyoh, senior associate for Africa and regional director at the National Democratic Institute (NDI), a US-based non-profit organization that works in global partnerships to safeguard democratic institutions and processes.

Harris: A win for Africa

Fomunyoh thinks that if Vice President Harris were to win in the November elections, African partners would only stand to benefit.

"And my sense is that if she wins in November, she will definitely want to pursue the same policy that the Biden administration has had towards the continent."

He also believes that Harris' ethnic origins give further assurances that Africa will be a priority for her, "given that she's African-American, knows the continent, and has visited the continent in the past."

Younger generations meanwhile think that Harris values align better with them. For Anane, it's about time that a woman gets to be the US' commander-in-chief.

"And of course, then the feminists will get the bragging rights as well," he told DW.

For Anane, female empowerment in the states can only echo back to after as a message of hope for everyone.

Do African leaders like Cameroon's 91-year-old President Paul Biya simply not know when it is time to say goodbye?

Image: Stephane Lemouton/abaca/picture alliance

Edited by: Sertan Sanderson

Elon Musk rebukes report that he would spend $45 million monthly on pro-Trump PAC

Tesla CEO and SpaceX founder Elon Musk, who is also the owner of social media platform X, refuted a US media report that he would spend around $45 million (€41.3 million) a month on a political fund helping Donald Trump's White House campaign.

Musk said the claim is "ridiculous."

"I am making some donations to America PAC, but at a much lower level and the key values of the PAC are supporting meritocracy & individual freedom," Musk wrote on X.   

A Wall Street Journal article published last week reported that Musk had planned to commit the large amount to America PAC, citing "people familiar with the matter." America PAC backs Trump's candidacy. 

A political action committee (PAC) is a tax-exempt organization which collects funds and donates the money for campaigns.  

Musk, the richest man in the world, endorsed Trump after the former president was targeted in an assassination attempt on July 13. 

https://p.dw.com/p/4ie57

AFRIKA
Are we seeing the end of ECOWAS?

Eddy Micah | Mimi Mefo Takambou | Isaac Kaledzi

DW

July 22, 2024

The Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, was originally set up to ensure the economic growth and stability of the subregion. But with some members leaving the bloc, is it slowly disintegrating?

Can ECOWAS leaders reform their way out of a regional crisis?

Image: Kola Sulaimon/AFP/Getty Images

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has been facing turmoil following the recent exits of Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali from the bloc. The three countries, which are all currently under military rule, formed a new security alliance last September, known as the Alliance of Sahel States, after cutting their ties with ECOWAS.

The decision of exit the bloc came in protest of ECOWAS' policy of condemning the coups that took place in those countries and imposing sanctions, including the threat of military involvement.

Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have said they would not be opposed to using the military strength of their new alliance to fight off any sign of external aggression.

A history of mixed messages from ECOWAS

Adib Saani, a foreign policy and security analyst at the Jatikay Center for Human Security and Peace Building in Accra, Ghana, told DW that this standoff followed the bloc's past failure to deal with autocratic regimes which had eroded its diplomatic influence over the years.

"ECOWAS has a protocol on governance, elections and security. Unfortunately for many years on, there have been [...] dictatorial tendencies exhibited by certain leaders within the subregion which ECOWAS did nothing about," he said, adding that this lack of intervention directly contributed to military regimes taking the liberty "to impose themselves on the people."

Since 2020, there have been six successful coups and two attempts in West Africa.

ECOWAS: What next after Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso quit?  01:42

Who is to blame for instability in West Africa?

Fidel Amakye Owusu, an international relations and security analyst working for Riley Risk, believes, however, that ECOWAS' structures, policies and protocols cannot be blamed for recent instabilities in the region.

"The main reason for these coups wasn't coming the side of ECOWAS. It came from insecurity, violence extremism that had taken hold in northern Mali and was spreading its tentacles in the region," he said. "ECOWAS was incapable of preventing [these] coups."

But Owusu stressed that ECOWAS did fail in its response to these developments: the bloc's protocol stipulates that it is to condemn coups and impose sanctions. However, rather than serving as a deterrent to other countries, this protocol appears to have failed in the past four years.

"[ECOWAS] didn't handle the situation very well," he said, highlighting that the threat to invade Niger after its military takeover was a a particularly "bad move."

"They knew very well that they could not prosecute, and that really rendered them as toothless bulldog," Owusu explained, stressing that this move was the final straw that triggered Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso to break away from the bloc in January.



What went wrong for ECOWAS?

ECOWAS has for years been trying to push through several reforms to make the organization more viable and effective. According to Saani, however, the bloc is yet to live up to that vision, with weak national governments showing even weaker commitment to the bloc.

"It has been a challenge because of the lack of commitment from member states. ECOWAS' success rate depends on commitment demonstrated by the member states," he said. "[F]or ECOWAS to succeed would largely depend on the governments. ECOWAS has to work on harnessing trust and confidence between the entity and West Africans."

Owusu agreed on the need for good governance in West Africa, stressing that this lack of leadership is most visible when people are seen celebrating coups when they happen. "These are nostalgic feelings; people have come to feel that the military were in the past more effective than civilian leaders," he said.

Saani added that "to a large extent, ECOWAS has lost a great deal of legitimacy," with "many West Africans calling it a presidents' club rather than [a bloc] representing the interest of [...] citizens."

ECOWAS leaders have reacted to this loss in esteem, hoping to change hearts and minds. At their latest summit in Nigeria earlier this month, they agreed to seek solutions and address the sense of mistrust in leaders within the region.

They also vowed to continue talks with Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali in hopes of winning them back.

Explainer: What is the ECOWAS?   01:28

'Disastrous' consequences if ECOWAS fails

Saani believes that despite its many challenges, ECOWAS remains the most viable union to foster both economic growth and political stability in West Africa.

In addition to seeking "to unite all the countries within the West African subcontinent under one economic umbrella," ECOWAS also still holds a certain amount of "military leverage to restore some level of security within the subregion," he said.

Saani pointed out that when Sierra Leone and Liberia faced security crises over their civil wars, ECOWAS deployed troops to help tackle those situations.

"It was ECOWAS that intervened to ensure that peace was restored in these countries and many others over the years," he said.

Owusu shared the same view, emphasizing that "ECOWAS took initiative when the whole world was bowing out [...] and they solved the problem."

However, in order to ensure the future of the bloc, Owusu said ECOWAS has to undergo further reforms and produce strong leaders who are committed to the aspirations of the bloc.

Saani, meanwhile, said he fears that if ECOWAS were to disintegrate, "it would be chaotic" and "disastrous" for all of West Africa.

"Businesses would come to a halt. If ECOWAS doesn't exit, it means the borders are shut. You would need visas, and you have to go through a protracted customs procedure to get goods in and out," he warned. "I think that it is better with ECOWAS than without ECOWAS."

Edited by: Sertan Sanderson


Mimi Mefo Takambou Award-winning Cameroonian-born journalist.https://x.com/mimimefo

Isaac Kaledzi Freelance reporter based in Accra, Ghana.@isaackaledzi

Explained: Extreme cold in Argentina’s Patagonia region

Fernando Mateos Frühbeck

DW

July 22, 2024

While scientists can explain why Patagonia had a freak freeze in July, they say it's harder to pin it on climate change, at this time, without more data.

The lucky ones: Other sheep were buried in the snow

Ministerio de Defensa de Argentina


When Patagonia was hit by a wave of unusual, extreme weather, it recorded temperatures as low as minus 15 degrees Celsius (five degrees Fahrenheit). It is winter in the Southern Hemisphere, but those temperatures were beyond normal.

Ducks froze to death in ponds, sheep were stuck in piles of snow, and military personnel transported food to affected areas for people and livestock.

"This is an unusual phenomenon," said Raúl Cordero, a climatologist at the University of Santiago de Chile. But he added it was not the first of the season and "may not be the last."



What's the origin of the extreme cold in Patagonia?

The low temperatures in Patagonia and the Southern Cone of Latin America (Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay and southern Brazil) are due to the arrival of cold air from Antarctica.

High pressure at the southern tip of the continent pulled polar air northwards. That happens when the polar vortex — a belt of strong winds that keeps cold air over the South Pole — is weak.

"The unusual weakness of the Antarctic polar vortex increases the likelihood of polar air masses escaping to inhabited areas in the southern hemisphere. In other words, the likelihood of cold waves increases," said Cordero.

The cold wave —the opposite of a heat wave — of July 2024 was the second time in three months that that had happened in the region.

What are the implications for global temperatures?

Cordero said the cold snaps in Patagonia are unlikely to affect the global climate. Rather, he said, it would be the other way around: It will be changes in the global climate that contributed to a weak Antarctic polar vortex, resulting in the cold waves in the Latin America's Southern Cone.

"While these low temperatures were recorded in populated areas of the Southern Cone, the highest temperatures ever observed were recorded in the upper Antarctic atmosphere," said Cordero.

Australia and New Zealand were also likely to be affected by extreme cold snaps, he said. And, indeed, a weather station in Queensland, Australia, recorded the coldest night in 120 years on July 18, 2024.

But the researcher said the cold wave could have a small positive impact at a more local level.

Patagonia's icefields cover more than 10,000 square kilometers (3,861 square miles) on the border between Chile and Argentina. They "lose on average between 10 billion and 15 billion tons of ice every year. Although recent cold spells will not change this trend, they may at least make this year's balance less negative," said Cordero.

Is climate change behind the extreme cold?

Some research focused on the Northern Hemisphere indicates that such cold waves may be due to climate change.

A 2012 study by the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Massachusetts, US, suggested that accelerated Arctic warming had affected air streams that controlled the climate. That would increase the likelihood of extreme events in mid-latitudes, causing or contributing to droughts, floods, cold and heat waves.

Another study published by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 2021 suggested that Arctic warming had contributed to the frequency of severe winters in the US.

The researchers found that changes in the Arctic could change the stratospheric polar vortex, causing very cold air to move southward, leading to extreme cold waves.

Cold waves and climate change: Not enough scientific proof

This evidence is a matter of debate, however, and part of the scientific community disagrees.

"I don't think Arctic warming has a big role in the cold extremes over midlatitudes. Our work has shown these are likely explained by natural variability and have occurred despite, rather than because of, global warming," said James Screen, Professor of Climatology at the University of Exeter, and contributor to the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Experts agree that such winters will become less and less common on the planet if CO2 in the atmosphere continues to rise.

"In most parts of the world, the warming effects of climate change will exceed any potential cooling effect from shifting weather patterns due to Arctic warming," said Screen.

Cordero agrees that "[these] cold waves will not change the warming trend in Patagonia, which is as evident as in the rest of the world."

Extreme cold does not counter global heating

Despite a scientific consensus on global heating, such cold episodes have been used by climate deniers to defend their positions.

"[They] are confusing short-term variations in weather with long-term variations in climate," said Screen. "A single cold extreme is a weather phenomenon."

But when we look at how cold extremes have changed over multiple decades, he said, they have become less frequent and less severe globally.

"Global warming is an upward trend in the average global temperature. A few cold snaps, however extreme, are not going to change this trend," said Cordero.

Edited by: Zulfikar Abbany

Sources:

Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes; published by Jennifer A. Francis, Stephen J. Vavrus in the journal Geophysical Research Letters (March 2012) https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051000

Linking Arctic variability and change with extreme winter weather in the United States; published by Judah Cohen et al. in the journal Science (September 2021) https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abi9167

Fernando Mateos Frühbeck Fernando is a Spanish journalist. He's worked in radio, television, print and documentary film.

Surprise as Czechia picks S. Korea to power nuclear drive

Tim Gosling (in Prague)

DW

JULY 23,2024

The Czech government surprised many last week by picking South Korean company KHNP over France's EDF to build at least two new nuclear reactors. DW takes a look at the background and possible consequences of the move.

The Czech government has announced that Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power will build two new reactors at the Dukovany power plant in the center of the country Zoonar.com/www.artushfoto.eu/picture alliance


The Czech Republic surprised many last week when it announced on July 17 that it will award South Korea the country's biggest-ever contract to build up to four new nuclear reactors.

Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala announced that Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) beat France's EDF in a tender launched in 2022 to build a new reactor at the Dukovany power plant in the center of the country.

"The Korean bid was better in all criteria assessed," Fiala told reporters, adding that Prague has decided to build two units at Dukovany "for now."

Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala announced on July 17 that the government has decided to commission the Korean company KHNP with building at least two — and possibly four — nuclear reactorsImage: Michal Krumphanzl/CTK/IMAGO

Construction of the first unit is expected to start in 2029, with the reactor to go online by 2036.
Cost a key factor

Officials have stressed that the price of the Korean offer, which Fiala said amounts to around €8 billion per unit, helped tip the balance in KHNP's favor.

The cost of expanding the Czech Republic's fleet of nuclear power plants and the key question as to who should pick up the tab, has for over a decade delayed progress on what is the main plank of the country's long-term energy strategy to increase to 50% nuclear energy's contribution to the country's total power output.

Dukovany's four Soviet-era units, alongside a pair at Temelin near the Austrian border, currently produce around 30% of the country's output, but they are all getting on in years.

Yet despite broad support across the political spectrum for the policy to increase nuclear power, finances and geopolitics have so far stood in the way.

The Temelin nuclear power plant is Czechia's largest electricity producer, covering about a fifth of domestic consumption. The Czech government will discuss the construction of two units there with KHNP

Image: Vaclav Pancer/picture alliance

The objections of state-controlled energy company CEZ's minority shareholders to the company taking on such a massive and risky investment, and conflicting approaches among political players, stopped a tender to add two reactors at Temelin in 2014.

This time, CEZ will take on the investment, albeit with significant state support.

Other obstacles to nuclear progress

More recently, a tussle over whether nuclear power should qualify as a sustainable energy source under EU environmental regulations has clouded the issue.

But Fiala has upped the ante since Russia's invasion of Ukraine sparked an energy crunch two years ago. Last year he announced that his government wants to add up to four new reactors to the six currently serving the country.

Fiala said when announcing the result of the Dukovany tender that an option for adding a further two units at Temelin will be discussed with KHNP.

Russia and China not included in tender

Ten years ago, Russia's state nuclear agency Rosatom looked like a shoo-in for the contract to expand Temelin thanks to residual support for Moscow among Prague's political power brokers. However, relations with Russia have since broken down almost completely.

The construction of two new reactors at the Dukovany power plant will be KHNP's debut project in the EU. Pictured here: Alois Mika, KHNP adviser in the Czech Republic, presenting the Dukovany projectImage: Roman Vondrous/CTK/picture allianc

The discovery in 2021 that Russian intelligence had blown up an arms depot at Vrbetice in the east of the country in 2014, killing two, sparked fury in the Czech Republic. The ensuing diplomatic tit-for-tat saw embassies in Prague and Moscow all but emptied.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Czechia's keen support for Kyiv have only deepened the freeze in relations.

But even before that, Czech lawmakers backed legislation blocking Russia from taking part in the nuclear tender due to national security concerns.

China, which had also spent years lobbying for the job, was also excluded.
Why did the South Koreans win the bid?

Given Prague's financing concerns, the exclusion of Moscow and Beijing — whose nuclear exports are highly competitive on cost — may have given the South Koreans a distinct advantage.

KHNP enjoys a strong track record of efficiency in meeting delivery and cost parameters, and the announced pricing of its offer looks extremely competitive.

The main plank of the Czech Republic's long-term energy strategy is to increase the contribution of nuclear power to the country's total power output to 50%

Image: Lubos Pavlicek/dpa/picture alliance

The Korean company is thought likely to have had extra motivation to make the price tempting for Prague. The Czech contract is a route for KHNP to a debut project in the EU, a market that is potentially lucrative but also challenging in terms of regulations.

Why did the French not get the deal?

The fact that France's EDF has a poor reputation on meeting delivery and cost parameters is also likely to have weighed on minds in Prague.

Nevertheless, the decision to go with South Korea was still unexpected by many because the French bid had long been considered the clear favorite.

"It was a surprise. Not from a technical or cost point of view, but from the geopolitical angle," Martin Jirusek, an assistant professor at Brno's Masaryk University, who specializes in energy geopolitics, told DW. "It was assumed that France was the natural choice because it's such a key state in the EU and potentially valuable partner for Czechia in those terms."

Nuclear power as a sustainable energy source for the EU?

Alongside a raft of (mostly Central and Eastern European) member states, the Czechs have spent recent years pushing the EU into accepting that nuclear power should have a role in decoupling from Russian energy and driving the energy transition.

But it was France's political heft that was key in securing a classification for nuclear power as a sustainable investment under the EU's Green Deal two years ago.

That allowed Prague to submit to Brussels a plan to supply a 30-year state loan to fund the first unit at Dukovany, as well as a contract for difference that would guarantee CEZ a minimum price for the electricity produced.

The Czech decision in favor of South Korea was unexpected because the French bid had long been considered the clear favorite. Pictured here: French President Emmanuel Macron speaks during the Czech-French Nuclear Forum in March

Image: Michal Kamaryt/CTK/AP/picture alliance

However, the debate remains lively, with Germany, Austria, Denmark, Italy, and Greece forming a strong anti-nuclear block.

Will the decision impact relations with France?

The Czechs will need to work their way past such obstacles as they launch a bid to secure agreement on funding and support for the second unit at Dukovany that KHNP has agreed to build.

But having snubbed Paris, the nuclear lobby's leading voice, Prague could find itself more isolated in that fight than it might have been.

"The snub seems likely to impact relations with France for now," Jirusek suggests.
The bottom line

Still, it seems that for Fiala, domestic politics trumped the international angle.

Having seen his government's support drained by the austerity drive he instituted in the middle of the cost-of-living crisis, the Czech PM will find it far easier to sell the savings offered by the South Korean bid to taxpayers than the uncertain and unquantifiable advantages of French friendship.

But at the same time, many suspect that the price announced by Fiala may be pie in the sky.

"It will be interesting to see what price is actually on the contract when it's signed next year," says Jirusek, who suggests that €12 billion — and not €8 billion — per unit is probably more realistic.

Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan

Tim Gosling Journalist covering politics, economics and social issues across Central and Eastern Europe

Tensions in Yemen could lead to ‘devastating’ regional escalation, says UN envoy

Despite renewed communication efforts between the Yemeni government and Houthi rebels, Hans Grundberg, the UN envoy to Yemen, warned the UN Security Council that growing international tensions have reached a “new and dangerous level,” and ongoing domestic disputes could plunge Yemen back into a “full-scale war”.

SAUDI BACKED GOVERNMENT VS 

HOUTHI INDIGENOUS REBELS


Issued on: 24/07/2024 - 

Protesters lift placards, flags of Yemen and Palestine, and rifles during a rally in the Huthi-controlled capital Sanaa in solidarity with Palestinians on July 19, 2024. © Mohammed Huwais, AFP
By:NEWS WIRES
ADVERTISING


The UN envoy for Yemen warned Tuesday that recent developments in the Red Sea, Israel and inside the country “show the real danger of a devastating region-wide escalation” — but he also pointed to a glimmer of hope.

Hans Grundberg said Yemen’s warring parties — the internationally recognized government and Houthi rebels – informed him Monday night “that they have agreed on a path to de-escalate a cycle of measures and countermeasures which had sought to tighten their grip on the banking and transport sectors.”

But he warned the UN Security Council that seven months of escalating actions reached “a new and dangerous level last week” which saw a Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv and Israeli retaliatory attacks on Yemen’s key port of Hodeida and its oil and power facilities.

He said Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea and surrounding waterways continue and the rebels are escalating their crackdown “on civic space and on international organizations.” Airstrikes on Houthi targets by the United States and United Kingdom are also continuing, he said.

Grundberg also warned that escalating economic issues have been “translating into public threats to return to full-fledged war.”

Yemen has been engulfed in civil war since 2014, when the Iranian-backed Houthis seized much of northern Yemen and forced the internationally recognized government to flee from the capital, Sanaa. A Saudi-led coalition intervened the following year in support of government forces, and in time the conflict turned into a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

While fighting has decreased considerably since a six-month truce in 2022, Grundberg told the council that clashes have been reported along numerous frontlines this month “and we have witnessed an increase in military preparations and reinforcements.”

Rivalry between the Houthis and the southern government have fueled an economic divide, with the rivals establishing separate and independent central banks and different versions of the country’s currency, the riyal.

Grundberg told reporters after the briefing that the rivals informed him Monday night that they reached agreement on four points to de-escalate the months long standoff on the banking sector and the operation of Yemenia Airways.

He told the council the “understanding” followed months of contacts with his office, which warned of the risk to the Yemeni people that “the deepening weaponization of the economy” would pose.

“I welcome the parties’ decision to choose a path of dialogue and I look forward to engaging further with the parties to support them in implementing their commitments with regard to the banking sector and Yemenia Airways,” he said. “The aim remains a unified currency, a unified and independent central bank, and a banking sector free of political interference.”

Nonetheless, while Grundberg welcomed the willingness of both sides to engage on economic issues, he said, “I reiterate my warning to the council that we risk a return to full-scale war and all the predictable human suffering and regional implications that entails.”

Grundberg told reporters the four points are similar to commitments the two sides made in September to engage in dialogue.

He said he told the council in closed consultations after the meeting that “we have been here before and that previous opportunities have slipped in the past because they never translated into structured dialogue on underlying issues.”

The UN special envoy said he will provide all the support the rivals need to implement the measures they agreed to, and expects them to translate their commitments to de-escalation into action.

These include the need for monetary policy coordination, progress toward a unified central bank and currency, and guarantees to ensure the central bank’s independence from political interference, he said.

“Stopgap measures could serve as band-aids but being serious about building an economy that benefits all Yemenis means that the parties have also to engage on underlying longer-term issues,” Grundberg said.


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Yemen is the Arab world’s poorest country and faces one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

Acting U.N. humanitarian chief Joyce Msuya told the council that Yemen’s GDP has shrunk by more than half since the conflict began, and a recent World Bank analysis found it contracted even further in the last year.

The fall in the value of the riyal has driven already sky-high food prices further out of reach for millions of people, she said.

“I urge the parties to seize this opportunity to find sustainable solutions to these challenges,” Msuya said. “Millions of people across the country depend on it.

(AP)

Will Israeli bombs undo Yemen's peace process?

Cathrin Schaer | Safia Mahdi in Yemen

DW

JULY 23,2024

Israeli strikes on Yemen only seem to make the Houthi rebel group they're targeting more popular. 

But could they also have an impact — positive or negative — on Yemen's stalled peace process?

Israel regularly bombs Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, but this weekend was the first time the country had bombed Yemen

Image: ANSARULLAH MEDIA CENTRE/AFP


After their jets hit what the Israeli military described as "Houthi targets" in Yemen last weekend, advocacy organizations and Yemeni locals were quick to push back.

"What happened today in Hodeida is a disaster that will only harm civilians," Basem Ganani, a Yemeni journalist, wrote on social media. Israeli bombs had hit cranes in the northern port city, fuel depots and a power station, he said.

It was completely dark and extremely hot, said Nahla al-Qudsi, a Hodeida journalist in her 30s. The power was cut off and all communications were also down. "That really made us scared," she told DW. "As if the fires and the extreme heat were not enough."

The Israeli military was retaliating against the Houthi rebel group, which controls this part of Yemen. Early on Friday morning, the Houthis had managed to fly a drone into central Tel Aviv for the first time. The resulting explosion caused one death and injured eight.

The ensuing Israeli airstrikes on Saturday killed six and injured as many as 80 others in Hodeida.

"The Israeli airstrikes on Hodeida caused significant damage, targeting essential infrastructure such as fuel storage facilities and power plants," Fatima Abo Alasrar, a Yemen expert at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, or MEI, told DW. "This has led to severe shortages [...] The people of Hodeida are living in fear and anxiety, unsure of what might happen next."

"Already, fuel lines throughout the country have hourslong wait, with people anticipating shortages," added Arwa Mokdad, an independent Yemen researcher based in the UK. "Hodeida is also the main port in Yemen. This will make it even more difficult for aid to enter the country."

The Houthi rebel group has been fighting Yemen's internationally recognized government for more than nine years. As a result of the ongoing civil war, over half of Yemen's population, an estimated 21 million people, is dependent on humanitarian assistance, the United Nations has said.

Houthis more popular than ever

Besides the negative impact on civilians in the city, another of the main criticisms of the Israeli attack is how it benefits the Houthi group itself.

Most recently the Houthis have been disrupting maritime traffic off the coast of Yemen because, the Iran-allied rebel group says, it is opposed to the Israeli military campaign in Gaza.

"They [the Houthis] now feel that their narrative of animosity toward Israel was justified," explained Abo Alasrar. "Their engagement with Israel appears to be more of a strategic move to strengthen their narrative and rally internal support, rather than a genuine effort to support the Palestinians."

Polls regularly show that almost all Yemenis staunchly support the Palestinian desire for statehood and equal rights. But not everyone agrees with the Houthis.

A lot of ordinary people in Yemen are unhappy with the way they run things, said Abo Alasrar. The Houthis have also increased recruitment and have even tried to draft children into their ranks. "That is deeply alarming and frightening for the local population," she noted.

The Houthis are a staunchly Islamist group that has recently been accused of kidnapping aid and NGO workers

Image: Mohammed Hamoud/Anadolu/picture alliance

However, bombing the Houthis tends to make them better liked.

"When faced with an external threat, people will turn towards their own countrypeople," said independent researcher Mokdad. "The bombings have skyrocketed Houthi popularity and will allow them to pursue more extreme political actions."

This may not be the last time Israel bombs Yemen, either. The Israeli military "is preparing for the possibility that it will have to launch another attack on Houthi targets," Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported on Monday.

There might even be assassinations of Houthi leaders outside Yemen, said Farea al-Muslimi, a research fellow at the UK-based think tank Chatham House.

Yemen 'stuck in a stalemate'

There could also be destablilizing, domestic political repercussions.

After nine years of civil war, the Houthi rebel group controls large parts of Yemen. Houthi opponents include the internationally recognized government, with close ties to Saudi Arabia, and separatist groups in the south of Yemen backed by the United Arab Emirates.

Lately, fighting between the Houthis and a Saudi-led military coalition has largely subsided and, despite slow progress, there are still hopes for a negotiated resolution.

Mokdad explained the current situation in Yemen: "In the Houthis' eyes, they have won the war and see no point in ceding to the internationally recognized government, which has been based in Riyadh for years now. Meanwhile, the internationally recognized government does not want to cede power either. They can't win," she pointed out. "But they can't lose either. This leaves us stuck in a stalemate."

Yemen's civil war, which has claimed over 150,000 lives, calmed after a June 2022 cease-fire deal

Image: Wael Qubady/AP/picture alliance

Could Israeli bombs tip the balance?

Al-Muslimi fears the moribund peace process could be damaged if the Houthis take revenge on targets closer than Israel, and resume firing on Saudi Arabia, Bahrain or the United Arab Emirates.

Mokdad notes that the more popular the Houthis get, the more they will ask for when negotiating.

Meanwhile, MEI's Abo Alasrar thinks the recent Israeli raid on Yemen could be something of a "game changer" because it will bring more international attention to efforts to cut off Houthi funding and supplies and their access to infrastructure like ports.

However, none of the experts that DW spoke with believe further Israeli strikes can have any kind of positive effect, nor will it make the Houthis — who have been fighting the Saudis, and recently the UK and the US — back down.

The Houthis have said they would stop attacking maritime traffic in the Red Sea and Israel if the conflict in Gaza stopped. There's no reason not to believe them, analysts say. As Timothy Lenderking, the US' special envoy to Yemen, said in March on US political channel, C-Span, "the first step that is going to help us get [a settlement in Yemen] is a cease-fire in Gaza."

Peace in Yemen could still be on the table, said Mokdad. "But it will require external actors to stop escalating an already tense political situation. It is time to sit down and talk, even with those we disagree with. War created our problems," she said, "but diplomacy can end them."

Houthis launch more strikes after Israel bombs Yemeni port  02:38


Edited by: Martin Kuebler

Germany moves to protect top court against far right

Ben Knight

JULY 23, 2024

DW

Several authoritarian governments are trying to curb the clout of their countries' supreme courts. As far-right populists gain ground in Germany, the government is also working to protect this bastion of democracy.

Lawmakers have called to protect Germany's Federal Constitutional Court against the influence of far-right populists

Image: Uwe Anspach/AFP via Getty Images

Germany's governing coalition wants to strengthen the Federal Constitutional Court to better protect it from political influence, partly as a safeguard against the growing strength of the Alternative for Germany (AfD). Sections of the far-right party have been deemed a threat to the constitutional order by intelligence agencies.

Presenting his reform plans in Berlin on Tuesday, Federal Justice Minister Marco Buschmann of the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) was joined by parliamentarians from the center-left Social Democrats and Greens, as well as the main opposition center-right Christian Democrats.

According to the plans jointly hashed out by the parties, the number of judges (16) and the unique term of office of 12 years should be enshrined in the German constitution, the Basic Law. That would mean that any future change to the regulation would require a two-thirds majority in the parliament, the Bundestag, rather than the current simple majority.

Judge selection is also to be reformed: should the selection of a particular judge be blocked for six months by the Bundestag, the other chamber of the German parliament, the Bundesrat, which represents the federal states, will be able to vote on the candidate. This would theoretically prevent any party from being able to block a judge indefinitely.

Germany's Basic Law ensures separation of powers  01:02

"The Federal Constitutional Court is a shield for fundamental rights, but its own shield needs to be more resilient," Buschmann said in a statement. "It was time to close this remarkable discrepancy between the importance of the Federal Constitutional Court on the one hand and its lack of constitutional protection on the other." The joint proposals presented Tuesday will be turned into a draft law.

The Bundesrat proposed similar reforms earlier this year, designed to anchor the rules governing the Constitutional Court in the German constitution and making it more difficult for future governments to change them.

Poland's judicial reform crisis sparked action

The lawmakers' minds appear to have been focused by recent controversies in fellow European Union member states Poland and Hungary, and the success of the AfD, currently polling at around 17% nationwide.

Ulrich Karpenstein, vice president of the German Bar Association and one of the country's leading experts in public law, thinks such changes are vital. "The Constitutional Court is not protected from blockades from parliamentary minorities, especially when it comes to selecting judges," he told DW earlier this year. "Nor is it protected against simple majorities in the Bundestag, such as the scenario created by the PiS party in Poland."

"One could carry out so-called 'court-packing' — in other words simply appoint additional judges or create additional chambers with one's own judges, for example," he added. "There are ways to improve this, and in fact the consensus is that there is a need to do something."

How much do neo-Nazi views influence Germany's AfD?  11:41

But Stefan Martini, senior researcher in public law at Kiel University, thinks that, while the reforms might sound reasonable enough, lawmakers need to exercise some caution. "I would be very careful," he told DW in February. "It certainly does make sense to write some of the rules about the Constitutional Court in the Basic Law, but I would confine it to very fundamental rules."

Martini thinks rules limiting judges' tenures and banning them from being reelected make sense, but said he had "mixed feelings" about forcing two-thirds majorities to select judges. "Because if you do that, then you have to work out how you're going to get around parliamentary blockades," he said. "And there is no perfect solution for that — whether it's another branch of government taking over the responsibility, or a panel of judges, and that would bring less democratic legitimacy."

The recent judicial reform crisis in Poland spurred many lawyers in Germany to look for ways to safeguard the German Constitutional Court. This crisis, which sparked mass protests, began in 2015 when the Polish Law and Justice Party (PiS) was accused of court-packing after it took power. Boasting an absolute majority in the Polish parliament, the nationalist conservative party amended laws governing the Constitutional Tribunal and appointed five new judges to the court.

In 2019, the PiS government also created a new chamber of the Supreme Court, called the Disciplinary Chamber, and changed the law to allow the government to appoint and sack the head of the Supreme Court. The reforms fell foul of the European Court of Justice, which ruled in 2019 that they violated EU law and undermined the independence of the judiciary.

Poland's Constitutional Court 'is a marionette court'  03:03

Making laws harder to change not always a good thing, warn analysts

Similar crises have played out elsewhere — reforms carried out by the nationalist Fidesz party in Hungary in 2013 were criticized internationally for weakening the separation of powers between the legislature and the judiciary.

"The Constitutional Court is central for democracy and for the rule-of-law in order to protect fundamental rights, the separation of powers and free elections," said Karpenstein. "Imagine if at the end of a legislative period we had a scenario like with [US President Donald] Trump or [Brazilian President Jair] Bolsonaro — in other words, presidents who don't want to step down saying the election was fraudulent. In such a moment we need a court that decides whether such claims are true."

But Martini warned that making laws harder to change is not always a good thing. "Once an illiberal government is voted out, and a progressive government voted in, for example, they would also need to secure a majority to roll back policies." he said. "And that becomes more difficult if you enshrine certain rules in the constitution."

Karpenstein welcomed the proposals on Tuesday. "The discussions between the CDU and representatives of the coalition have led to important and intelligent proposals that emphasize the independence of the court and protect its judges from political interference," he said in a statement.

He added that the proposals effectively ruled out court-packing and other constitutional dangers, but he suggested that in future, the Constitutional Court could be strengthened even more if the Bundesrat was looped into decisions made about new judges and other rules.

"It is important that future changes to the Federal Constitutional Court Act, and in particular the quorums for the election of judges and decisions by the Federal Constitutional Court, can no longer be amended by a simple majority of the Bundestag," said Karpenstein.

This article was first published in February 2024 and updated on July 23, 2024, to reflect latest developments.

Edited by: Rina Goldenberg

German court orders stronger action to tackle air pollution

A German court has mandated that the federal government enhance its air quality standards to meet European pollution targets. The ruling found in favor of an environmental NGO that had sued the Scholz government.

German heavy industry and lignite-fired  (COAL) power stations present major hurdles for air pollution targets

Image: S. Ziese/blickwinkel/IMAGO

A German court ruled on Tuesday that the federal government must strengthen its National Air Quality Program in order to meet European targets for reducing air pollution.

The Higher Administrative Court of Berlin-Brandenburg ruled in favor of the NGO Environmental Action Germany (DUH), who had sued Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government.

The ruling follows a similar decision from May that said the government need to improve its overall climate protection plans.

According to Tuesday's decision, the government must step up efforts to reduce ammonia, particulate matter, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxide in the air.

However, they are allowed to appeal the decision to the Federal Administrative Court in Leipzig.

Eco-solutions in the air and on the ground   26:06

Germans shun foreign electric cars

The ruling came the same day as a Handelsblatt Research Institute study which found that Germans overwhelming prefer domestic electric cars to cheaper Chinese models.

The survey, conducted for consultancy firm Bearing Point, found that German consumers preferred Volkswagen electric cars overall, followed closely by Mercedes and BMW.

Chinese brands and US-based Tesla, which recently opened a massive factory in Germany, fell well behind as the government tries to push the car-loving country to go electric.

es/lo (dpa, Reuters)

COVID-19: German gov't suffers defeat in 'face mask scandal'

Sabine Kinkartz  

DW

JULY 23, 2024

At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, German Health Minister Jens Spahn offered to pay high prices for protective masks. He later tried to backtrack, but a court has now ruled the government will have to foot the bill.

CDU politician Jens Spahn was Federal Health Minister from 2018 to 2021

Image: Kay Nietfeld/dpa/picture alliance
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Germany's government has received some bad news at a time of tricky budget negotiations.

The Higher Regional Court in Cologne has ruled in favor of a supplier of protective face masks, which the Federal Health Ministry ordered in 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, but later refused to accept or pay for. The judges ruled that the ministry should pay €85 million ($92 million), plus €33 million in default interest.

The ruling may well have a knock-on effect, as another 100 similar lawsuits are pending in court. If the Health Ministry is defeated in these cases, it could face a record loss of €2.3 billion in total.

The mask purchases are already considered one of the biggest tax wastage scandals in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany.

This smart masks monitors your breath  03:25

Jens Spahn's (mis-) calculation

A look back: In March 2020, the world was literally overrun by COVID-19. A vaccine was still months away, and medical protective gear was dwindling. Respiratory masks with the FFP2, KN95 or N95 standard, which are supposed to provide reliable protection against the virus, were in desperately short supply and there was a worldwide rush to stock up.

"China, the producer of around 80% of such masks at the time, was in lockdown and had stopped exports," recalled Simone Borchardt, a lawmaker for the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) which led the government at the time. "In Germany, we even developed guidelines on how we could use masks several times and whether they could be washed, that's how crazy it was back then," Borchardt told the lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, during a debate in June.

In this situation, then Health Minister Jens Spahn decided to procure masks in a sort of "open house" procedure. In this process, the relevant government body signs contracts with all interested companies so every provider gets a chance.

Spahn's thinking was that in the global competition for masks, he only had to set the price high enough to make sure Germany would get the goods. Contrary to the recommendation of his ministry officials, who considered a price of €3 (about $3.25 today) per mask to be appropriate, Spahn set the price at €4.50 for FFP2 masks, and at €0.60 for surgical masks. The response exceeded expectations and, in the end, the ministry found itself having placed orders for 5.7 billion masks.

"The price was set far too high," said Martina Stamm-Fibich, from the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), which was the junior coalition partner to Spahn's CDU at the time and currently heads the government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz. "In my view, this already raises the question of how it was possible to calculate prices without taking market developments into account and who bears the political responsibility for this," Stamm-Fibich said in the Bundestag.

What is the environmental impact of FFP2 face masks?  03:55

Four years later, Spahn is now on the defensive: "With the knowledge of today, I would make some decisions differently, without a doubt," he admitted in the debate. "And yes, in hindsight I cannot recommend the 'open house procedure' in such a situation."

However, he argued, he had to make decisions quickly in desperate times: human lives were at stake and medical staff were demanding protection.

"We procured masks. Were they expensive? Yes. Was it chaotic at times? Yes. It was the same for every country in the world," Spahn said. "I don't recall anyone warning at the time to make sure the price isn't too high, but I know a lot of people who said: 'Get masks at any price'."

Did the Health Ministry miscalculate?

The Health Ministry's calculation was that with 5 million health care workers needing two masks a day, more than 3 billion masks would be needed each year.

However, in the end, only 1.7 billion of the ordered masks were distributed. As early as 2023, 1.2 billion protective masks were destroyed because their expiry date had passed.

What Spahn hasn't said is that the Health Ministry must have come to the conclusion early on that it had miscalculated. The "open house" procedure was abruptly ended in May 2023 and ministry officials were trying to find ways to get out of as many contracts as possible.

An opportunity arose when some companies failed to deliver the expected quality. In these cases, the ministry unilaterally withdrew from the purchase contract. The same happened to suppliers who were unable to deliver on time, or only provided a part of the masks on the agreed date. The purchase contracts referred to a "fixed deal," claiming all contractual obligations would cease after the delivery date had passed.

Germany faces budget crisis after court ruling  02:01

However, it's precisely this clause that the Higher Regional Court in Cologne has now declared invalid. The judges found that suppliers had been put at an "unreasonable disadvantage" and the ministry should have been more flexible and set a shorter subsequent deadline.

The Health Ministry now wants to have the case clarified at the highest level by the Federal Court of Justice. If the court rejects the case, the Cologne ruling will become legally binding and is likely to have an impact on the other court proceedings — with the corresponding financial consequences.

Ongoing reappraisal of COVID-19 measures

Beyond the legal struggle, the political debate also continues — and it goes far beyond the prices of medical masks. Were the government's COVID measures, with their deep and far-reaching encroachments on fundamental rights, justified? What lessons can be learned from the pandemic, and what should be done differently in the future?

However, the parties of the ruling center-left coalition government — the SPD, Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) — have not yet been able to agree on what form a reappraisal would be appropriate. All three parties are in favor of a citizens' council. The Greens and the FDP are also pushing for the establishment of a commission of inquiry in the Bundestag, allowing lawmakers and experts to be heard and make recommendations for further procedures.

This article was originally written in German.

Is Laos facing a China debt trap?

China has financed major infrastructure projects in Laos, but the return on investment has yet to overcome the small country's mounting debt problems.

Tommy Walker in Bangkok

DW

JULY 23, 2024

China-funded hydroelectric dam projects in Laos have yet to bear economic fruit

Image: Dieter Mendzigall/imago images


As part of its Belt and Road Initiative, China has provided Laos with billions of dollars in loans to develop energy infrastructure and high-speed rail lines in the hopes of bolstering long-term economic growth.

China-funded hydroelectric dams on the Mekong River, and other energy infrastructure, aimed to make Laos the "battery" of Southeast Asia. However, both China-funded projects have yet to see the economic returns Laos had hoped for.

And recent economic data show Laos is facing a mountain of debt, with $13.8 billion in total public and publicly guaranteed debt at the end of 2023, which is over 100% of the tiny country's GDP.

Loans from China, Laos' biggest creditor, amounted to half of Laos' $10.5 billion foreign debt, according to data published in Bloomberg.

Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington who focuses on Southeast Asia, says Laos has a major debt problem.

"It's not just debt to China. Laos has a crushing amount of debt. Debt in itself is not bad if it is going to productive uses, but Lao debt has not. They have over capacity in hydroelectricity," he told DW.

"The rail line has been an absolute white elephant, although now with a connection to Bangkok, it should have greater returns. All of that has led to a 30% decline in its currency's value in 2023 and soaring inflation, which is now the second highest in the region," he added.

Laos: A country in the grip of the Chinese?  06:54

Chinese loans not the only problem for Laos

China has said it's "doing its best" to help Laos with its debt burden, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson told Bloomberg.

Laos keeps close ties with China, with which it shares a similar political ideology. The Laos government is run as a Communist one-party state, ruled by the Lao People's Revolutionary Party.

Beijing has been criticized by experts for its so-called "debt-trap diplomacy" by financing big-ticket projects in developing countries that end up struggling with huge Chinese loans and become economically dependent.

China's Foreign Ministry frequently this, calling such claims a US-led narrative aiming to deter Beijing's goals at working with developing nations.

Abuza said the Laotian government must shoulder some of the responsibility for its economic mess.

"China is not all to blame. The blame needs to go to the Laos government that took on too much debt for projects that did not deliver the economic returns that they anticipated," he said.

The expert added that Chinese loans "are not cheap" and come in at 4% interest, which is high for development projects. He added Japan and the World Bank usually charge under 1%.

"China's argument is that they are a lender of last resort and assume high political risk. Because most Chinese Belt and Road Initiative loans are through state-owned enterprises or state-owned banks, they are collateralized, which means that should Laos default, they will lose either money parked in Bank of China escrow accounts, or they will lose assets in debt for equity swaps," he said.

China has funded a 500-kilometer-long high-speed rail line in Laos

Image: Oliver Raw/DW

Economic woes affect ordinary Laotians

Overall, Laos' economy has struggled since the COVID pandemic, with rising inflation, a weak exchange rate against and sluggish GDP growth.

In June, inflation in Laos to over 26% in June 2024, slightly up from May's reading of 25.7%

The World Bank says Laos' grew by 3.7% in 2023 with a forecasted 4% in 2024. Prior to the pandemic, growth was 5.5%.

One Laotian, who requested to be anonymous for security concerns, said ordinary people in Laos are starting to feel the burden of economic downturn, with public services, road maintenance, education and health services all lacking.

"Since COVID, many small businesses have been closed, and many have not been reopened. Those who have some land have resorted to growing their own food and going back to a subsistence form of livelihood," they said.

They added most Laotians do not connect economic woes to debt.

"Most people will not know the scale of the debt, nor will they associate the debt to Chinaas having any direct impact on their lives," they said. "They will associate their daily challenges with the downturn of the Lao economy which had started since Covid and has continued even after. They experience the rising costs of living."

Edited by: Wesley Rahn