Sunday, December 22, 2024

Who is we? Of mice and men in longevity science | Book Reviews

LONG READ

Jason Fletcher
December 22nd, 2024
LSE 

The re-election of Donald Trump to the US presidency this year has brought focus on pseudoscience in healthcare and the search for ‘silver bullets’ in health and longevity research. Jason Fletcher reviews three books which purport to have insights into how to live longer: Outlive: The Science and Art of Longevity by Peter Attia, Lifespan: Why we age—And why we don’t have to by David Sinclair, and How We Age: The Science of Longevity by Coleen Murphy. He writes that these books’ focus on ‘silver bullet’ solutions to aging takes focus away from slow diseases which are leading us to have shorter and less healthy lives.


Murphy, Coleen, How We Age: The Science of Longevity, Princeton University Press, 2023


On November 15th, the president-elect, Donald Trump announced that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would be his nominee for Secretary of Health and Human Services. If RFK Jr. is confirmed by the US Senate and becomes health secretary, it will be an unfortunate watershed moment for the mainstreaming of pseudoscience in America. The grand irony of this is not lost on public health researchers: we’ll be appointing the country’s preeminent vaccine opponent to lead the Department of Health and Human Services only a few years after the world witnessed the unprecedented effectiveness and speed of discovery of COVID-19 vaccines. According to the National Institutes of Health, this modern marvel of science may have prevented more than 14 million deaths across the world in its first year alone. This was made possible thanks to randomized controlled trials (RCTs), which provide gold-standard evidence of a cause-and-effect relationship between an intervention (such as a drug) and a pre-specified outcome of interest.

Thanks to the COVID-19 vaccine, RCTs seemingly reclaimed their place on the pedestal of public consciousness, and many in public health hoped that the vaccine’s success foreshadowed a reversal in the popularization of pseudoscience and its more subtle cousin, the bait-and-switch, where instead of evidence and intervention strategies, we have “concepts of a plan”.

Searching for more public health ‘silver bullets’

Unfortunately, this hasn’t been the case. Americans continue to search for silver bullets for all manner of health issues, while the closest thing to a public health silver bullet in decades continues to be attacked by communities on the cusp of taking control of the American government. Part of the problem is that most of our remaining health questions are much more resistant to silver bullet answers than COVID-19 was. It is tougher to crowd out strategies with no evidence base, like injecting disinfectant to cure COVID-19, without gold-standard evidence to take their place (and even then…). We want to believe that a similar level of success is right around the corner for other causes of death and ailments, yet we have been fighting a seemingly intractable war on cancer for over fifty years. We have obesity, diabetes and opioid epidemics. Heart disease continues to kill millions. Central to these failures may be their slow accumulating effects. It turns out fast deaths, including many infectious diseases, have advantages; their speed allows us to know quickly and clearly when something works or does not. This is the perfect situation to leverage an RCT. We do not have to wait 20, 50, or 70 years to see if it works. But our remaining enemies work slowly to wear down our systems, to use our slow body processes of cell division and growth against us.

A lack of progress, zero RCTs showing human longevity gains, and the innate desire by humans to prolong life make for excellent pseudoscience and bait-and-switch markets, including a thriving literary genre. Most are pure snake oil salespersons not constrained by scientific evidence or standards. These “wellness experts” flourish in breathlessly touting the newest miracle diet or the newest exercise regimen. However, some authors in the longevity science genre take different tacks, and the successful authors who groan at the snake oil while making their own cases by employing a bait-and-switch, rather than straight pseudoscience are particularly revealing. These authors have 200-400 pages to fill and, in the end, zero silver bullets to show, so what do they do?
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. speaking with supporters at a campaign rally at the Fox Tucson Theatre in Tucson, Arizona, February 2024.
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.” (CC BY-SA 2.0) by Gage Skidmore

Before loading their own counterfeit silver bullets, many authors trudge through a dense and anecdote-filled wasteland. They often write at length about individual centenarians—Betty smoked every day for 86 years, while Herb has eaten only bacon every morning since World War II and has eight percent body fat. Or they describe so-called ‘blue zones’ that mysteriously overproduce centenarians and provide surface-level observations about how one place is known for its beach and laid-back lifestyle while another one serves a lot of fish. After some wishy-washy “wouldn’t it be great if the beach was a silver bullet” discussion, we typically then move on to the even more treacherous wasteland of epidemiological studies, a posterchild of the warning, “correlation does not imply causation”. The treachery here comes in the form of the many promised oases dressed up as RCTs, often after the author has highlighted several mirages from other sources that we are too smart to have fallen for. Indeed, often we stay at a last oasis for the remainder of the book.

Attia, Peter, and Bill Gifford. Outlive: The Science and Art of Longevity. Random House, 2023.

Peter Attia is one of the country’s most popular “wellness experts” who runs in similar circles to RFK Jr. (they have both appeared on the popular podcast, the Joe Rogan Experience), yet his work maintains a patina of scientific rigor. His 2023 book, Outlive: The Science and Art of Longevity is an apt example of this genre. Burnishing his “bro science” bona fides, he begins by highlighting extreme exercise and related performance (a favorite metric is VO2 max)—“exercise is by far the most potent longevity ‘drug’”. The quality of evidence for this is comparable to headline-grabbing studies associating red wine with early mortality or, conversely, extended life. Dr. Attia then moves through diet, sleep, emotional health and drugs, essentially with the same quality of evidence, which largely consists of centenarian anecdotes, research that ‘works’ in animal tests, and the epidemiological studies wasteland. It follows the tried-and-true template of focusing on the sheer number of existing studies and a heavy dose of anecdotes. Put another way, it’s the shock-and-awe approach that comes with rattling off specious study after specious study while sprinkling in compelling human-interest stories.

We are also meant to be dazzled by the level of surveillance we could engage in if so desired – diet is now “nutritional biochemistry” and we can personalize our eating patterns with our genetics and individuality. Likewise, the variety of sleep monitoring devices is massive, but the evidence that directly links specific sleep-related intervention targets with longevity is missing. And I don’t even know where to begin with the claims about exercise. One such claim that quantity beats quality of evidence notes, “…the epidemiology linking strength and cardiorespiratory fitness to lower risk for neurodegeneration is so uniform in its direction and magnitude that my own skepticism of the power of exercise has melted away.” Many dream of an exchange rate where enough bad studies eventually convert into one good one.

Attia makes an interesting claim that the key solution to the slow wear and tear on our bodies is to intensely focus on fortifying your body against the inevitable. There is a very similar idea in Alzheimer’s Disease of cognitive reserve. Faced with no effective treatments for dementia and an overwhelming lack of understanding, a remaining idea is to start our inevitable cognitive decline from a higher hill. The current hope is that educational attainment and stimulating work environments might all add to the height of our hill that we then slowly roll down later in life until we meet dementia criteria. Attia promotes a similar, but much more interventionalist, idea to invest in our own physical functioning reserves so that we start at a higher level when the declines start and thus might roll into death with high levels of physical functioning (that is, having a high ‘health span’). It’s an interesting idea, but we have no evidence that it works. Perhaps just as likely is that these maximalist interventions—always having a 30lb rucksack strapped to our backs—could cause injuries and make us not enjoy our life during our prime, which appear nowhere in Attia’s calculus. And again, it appears that his evidence is subject to a vote rather than our typical criteria: “While we can’t establish causality here, the strength and reproducibility of findings suggest this is more than just a correlation. Muscle helps us survive old age.”

The reader should be left with a great deal of uncertainty—we were promised the science of longevity, and we got it; it’s just incremental, inspirational, and aspirational. It’s not quite wiping down our grocery bags during COVID-19, but these are bullets painted silver.

Sinclair, David A., and Matthew D. LaPlante. Lifespan: Why we age—And why we don’t have to. Atria books, 2019.

In his 2019 book, Why We Age—And Why We Don’t Have To, David Sinclair approaches the subject differently than Attia. Sinclair is a scientist/researcher/professor at Harvard. He produces, rather than merely summarizes and amplifies, research. The reader still gets a walk through the wasteland with stops at various oases. But Sinclair also has a different focus, which is to move the goalpost. We learn a lot about lifespan and treatment successes… for worms and mice. It turns out that the US government (under NIH) and many venture capitalists have made major investments over several decades that have served to increase survival of yeast and worms. And using the tried-and-true method of bait and switch, readers are encouraged to dream about how these advances for worms will transform human longevity through understanding and tinkering with our biology.

Some choice passages include: “[DNA] can also tell you what food to eat, what microbiomes to cultivate in your gut and on your skin, and what therapies will work best to ensure that you reach your maximum potential lifespan”, “It won’t be long before prescribing a drug without first knowing a patient’s genome will seem medieval”, and “In the near future, proactive personal DNA scanning is going to be as routine as brushing our teeth.” This is certainly what 23andme was hoping for in their recent shift to subscription services en route to a complete collapse and probable removal from the Nasdaq. We never arrive at RCTs that show that what we’ve done to worms ports over to humans. The closest we get is an “ongoing” RCT for Metformin on longevity, which as far as I can tell has still not started, five years past the book’s claims. It’s an interesting form of snake oil – it’s not lying (exactly) when you encourage people to hope that we are like worms.

Murphy, Coleen, How We Age: The Science of Longevity, Princeton University Press, 2023

Coleen Murphy’s 2023 book splits the difference a bit but leans more toward Sinclair with much more restraint. The book’s title, How We Age: The Science of Longevity, might be the most fraught for a purportedly serious and scientific book – who would have guessed that in an age of so much disagreement over proper pronoun use, “we” could get in the crosshairs? In this case, the main issue is that her human audience might expect that “we” equals “humans.” Only after slogging through 350 pages of experiments on flies, worms, and mice do we (the readers) realize the “we” to be a bait-and-switch. Sometimes, we do get some “we” advice for “we, the reader’s species”, but here Murphy includes flourishes reminiscent of Attia: “…but one of the easiest ways to extend our lifespan…is to exercise more” with no accompanying gold standard evidence in humans. While she focuses on worms, she mercifully does not traverse the wasteland that Attia and Sinclair trudge through.

Starting out, Murphy soothes that she won’t tell us what she eats or weighs or how she exercises because this is “just bad science.” But then she guards her flank (and the pronoun in her title) by telling us in advance that she will not be “using the popular phrase, ‘…at least in worms and flies.’” Of course, the phrase is popular because we (humans) really do want to know whether extending a worm’s life by 50 percent (aka, a couple weeks) has any meaning for us (humans); but Murphy is not going to play this diminutive game of qualifying the insights of her book. This is because “almost all we know” about longevity was first understood in model systems (e.g. worms) and then “tested later in higher organisms (mammals like mice)…”. She claims that we are “right in the middle” of understanding aging but that we don’t yet know “all of the answers”. Seems fine so far. Maybe this will be a purely descriptive book about worms and mice, just to satisfy our interest in these animals, right? Maybe the “we” is indeed supposed to be read as worms. Yet, she can’t resist ending her introduction by saying, “With this information at our disposal, we should be able to make wise decisions about how to manage our own longevity.” Here the “we” is not actually the worms but the readers. And now we are back to hopes and dreams.

While the Murphy book is a scientifically driven analysis (so many worms!), the author succumbs to the temptation to stretch a bit; to try to get back to the subject of her title: We. Many findings on mice or worms have “promise” as a “possible clinical therapeutic” or “may represent a new class of longevity treatments to be explored” with no accompanying evidence. The reader also gets a short excursion into findings on human athletes’ declining performance with age: “While anaerobic (sprinting) events generally show greater changes with age—just like a worm’s decline in maximum velocity…aerobic performance also declines, but at a later stage.” (italics added). It is in this way that the author, and this wing of the longevity-industrial complex, entices readers’ yearnings for good news. This aligns it with other full-on proclamations from Sinclair and Attia. The reader should wonder if the book should have been titled, How (Some) Creatures Age. But would humans buy this book?

No silver bullets in longevity science

We might ask ourselves if we are repeating history. It’s not exactly as if our pursuit of longer lives or even immortality are new concepts. Selling the possibility certainly isn’t. But with so few actual silver bullets, most disease categories – as well as the longevity-focused investigators filling our bookstores and social media feeds – must toggle between incremental progress and hocking hope. Bruno Latour, the famed French intellectual, described the pre-Pasteur hygienists of mid-19th century France as having “…an accumulation of advice, precautions, recipes, opinions, remedies, regulations, anecdotes, case studies” because illness, “…can be caused by almost anything. Typhus may be due to contagion, but it may also be due to the soil, the air, and/or overcrowding. Nothing must be ignored, nothing dismissed.” Swap in aging for illness here and you have an apt description of what longevity science boils down to in 2024. Like our “wellness experts,” the 19th century hygienists similarly wandered adrift in a wasteland where “none of the evidence certain and none can be abandoned.” Latour labels this circumstance “all-round combat” because “…if anything can cause illness, nothing can be ignored.” Mix in enormous uncertainty and our current methods of surveillance, and we quickly arrive at Latour’s conclusion that, “to act everywhere is to act nowhere…like an army trying to defend a long frontier by spreading its forces thin.”

Further dividing our own forces to also defend against findings from animal models in addition to accumulated folk tales leaves us continuing to hope for a miracle while slouching toward shorter and less healthy lives. As we saw during the COVID-19 pandemic, we know how to go about getting an answer to these questions by deploying sufficient resources to attain gold standard evidence in humans. We also learned a great deal about the importance of combatting the snake oil salespeople and the loudest storytellers, and the Herculean effort required to do so in an information environment awash with counterfeit silver bullets and their enthusiastic purveyors. A big part of that is figuring out our scientific pronouns—whether “we” is we or them or everything. This in itself is a new battlefront in “all-round combat” yet unresolved.

Note: This review gives the views of the reviewer, and not the position of USAPP – American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics.

Shortened URL for this post: https://wp.me/p3I2YF-eHe

About the author

Jason Fletcher is a Vilas Distinguished Achievement Professor of Public Affairs with appointments in Applied Economics and Population Health Sciences at the La Follette School of Public Affairs at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. A specialist in health economics, economics of education, social genomics, and child and adolescent health policy, Professor Fletcher focuses his research on examining social network effects on adolescent education and health outcomes, combining genetics and social science research, estimating long-term consequences of childhood mental illness, and examining how in utero and early life conditions affect later life health, cognition, and mortality.
Posted In: Book Reviews | Healthcare and public services
THE GRIFT

Who is Stephen Miran? Trump taps ex-Treasury official as chair of Council of Economic Advisers

Reuters |
Dec 22, 2024 

=
Donald Trump said that Stephen Miran, a Treasury Department adviser in his first administration, would be the chair of his Council of Economic Advisers.

President-elect Donald Trump said on Sunday that Stephen Miran, a Treasury Department adviser in his first administration, would be the chair of his Council of Economic Advisers.

President-elect Donald Trump (AP)

The council advises the president on economic policy and is composed of three members, including the chair. The council assists in the preparation of an annual report that gives an overview of the country's economy, reviews federal policies and programs and makes economic policy recommendations.

Earlier this year, Miran and economist Nouriel Roubini authored a hedge fund study that said the U.S. Treasury last year effectively provided economic stimulus by moderating long-dated bond sales.

The study echoed suggestions by Republican lawmakers that the Treasury deliberately increased issuance of short-term Treasury bills to give the economy a "sugar high" ahead of the November elections. The Treasury denied any such strategy.

Miran, a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital, has also argued that fears over trade tariffs that Trump has threatened to impose after he takes office next month are overblown.


Trade and economic experts have said such duties would raise prices and would effectively be a new tax on consumers.

Last month, Trump tapped Kevin Hassett, who was a key economic adviser in his first term, to chair his National Economic Council, which helps set domestic and international economic policy.

Hudson Bay Capital took a position in Trump's social media firm Trump Media & Technology in the first quarter of this year.
Sam Altman lambasts Elon Musk as ‘Bully’, reveals why he has ‘issues’ with OpenAI

ByShweta Kukreti
Dec 22, 2024
HINDUSTAN TIMES

Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, has opened up about his complicated relationship with billionaire Elon Musk, calling the Tesla CEO a “bully.”

Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, has opened up about his complicated relationship with billionaire Elon Musk, calling the Tesla CEO a “bully.” Altman also discussed Musk's propensity to publicly quarrel with other well-known people, including Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos

.
Sam Altman argued that Elon Musk's problems with OpenAI are a result of his need for power and that he would be happy with the company's course if he were the head. (AFP)

Musk quit OpenAI in 2018 after being one of the company's first investors. Altman and Musk co-founded OpenAI in 2015 with an aim to develop AI technology for human advantage. However, their collaboration deteriorated when Musk quit the firm, citing conflicts over its governance and direction. Following his exit, Musk emerged as an outspoken opponent of OpenAI, bringing legal action and claiming that the company misled him when it first started.



Elon Musk on his relationship with Altman

In a recent interview to the Free Press, Altman was asked about his equation with Musk and his issues with OpenAI. “Right now, it's me. It's been Bezos, Gates, Zuckerberg, lots of other people,” he said.

Altman further argued that Musk's problems with OpenAI are a result of his need for power and that he would be happy with the company's course if he were the head. “Everything we're doing, I believe Elon would be happy about if he were in control of OpenAI,” he stated.

Promoted


Meet the powerful tools everyone needs to thrive at work.Adobe Systems Incorporated|
Sponsored

Here’s What a 6-Hours Gutter Upgrade Should Cost YouLeafFilter Partner|
Sponsored

Free Spins in Alberta Are Turning Ordinary People Into WinnersJackpotcity|
Sponsored

Level up with 3X the pointsALL.com|
Sponsored

National teachers’ conference on education challenges to be held on March 1, 2Hindustan Times

Taylor Swift Is Photographed Without Makeup, This Is How She Really Looks.Today's NYC|
Sponsored

Unsold 2024-2025 Cruise Cabins Are So Cheap Now (Take A Look)FavoriteSearches | Search Ads|
Sponsored

The Phenomenal Tesla Model Y Is Close To Perfection (Take A Look)FrequentSearches | Search Ads|
Sponsored



Also Read: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman to donate $1 million to Donald Trump's inaugural fund
Altman expresses confidence that Musk wouldn't abuse his authority

Altman, meanwhile, voiced confidence that Musk wouldn't abuse his position of authority to hurt rivals in response to worries about his possible influence under a second Trump administration. “I think there are people who will really be a jerk on Twitter who will still not abuse the system of the country,” he stated.


In an interview with the New York Times DealBook Summit, it would be incredibly un-American to use political power to harm your rivals and benefit your own companies. “I may turn out to be wrong, but I believe pretty strongly that Elon will do the right thing.”

Musk is presently suing Microsoft and OpenAI, alleging that they deviated from the project's initial charitable purpose. The Wall Street Journal claims that xAI, which he founded, is worth $50 billion, securing a place among the world's most valuable firms.

 

Russia’s arms exports slump, Kremlin preparing for possible war with Nato

Russia’s arms exports slump, Kremlin preparing for possible war with Nato
Russian arms exports have plummeted by 92% since 2021 as the Kremlin needs all the arms it produces to supply the army in Ukraine. It has used up a large part of its stocks and despite the heavy spending doesn't have the productive capacity to meet its own demand. / bne IntelliNews
By Ben Aris in Berlin December 20, 2024

Russian arms exports have plummeted by 92% since 2021, according to defence policy expert Pavel Luzin, as the Kremlin redirects all its military production to supplying the conflict in Ukraine.

Industry analysts warn that the sector’s long-term health hinges on a swift conclusion of the war in Ukraine and is putting pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to start ceasefire talks with Kyiv.

Arms exports used to be the second biggest export product after oil, but revenue from the sale of Russian arms will plummet to under $1bn by the end of 2024, Luzin, a lecturer at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, speaking at the "Country and World: Russian Realities 2024" conference in Berlin said at the end of November. This marks a sharp fall from $14.6bn in 2021, $8bn in 2022, and $3bn in 2023.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reported that Russia fell to third place in global arms exports in 2023, overtaken by the United States and France. This comes after a sustained decline in Russia’s defence exports, which halved between 2014 and 2018. By 2023, Russia was supplying weapons to only 12 countries, compared to 31 in 2019, illustrating its shrinking influence in the global arms trade.

The state-owned defence conglomerate Rostec CEO Sergei Chemezov recently confirmed that Russian arms sales were valued at $15bn in 2021 but fell to $7bn in 2022 and $6bn in 2023. Figures for 2024 have yet to be released, but industry forecasts predict an even steeper decline.

“We see that Russia as an arms exporter has generally failed,” Luzin said, attributing the drop to sanctions, disrupted logistics, and waning client confidence.

The falling exports undermine Russia’s relations with its partners in the Global South, which rely on cheap but sophisticated weapons in their own security arrangements. One of the topics on the agenda during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with Putin in July was the delayed delivery of Russia’s advanced S-400 surface to air missile defence system that India ordered and wants to protect its northern borders with China and Pakistan.

Satellite photos posted online by Russian military bloggers (milbloggers) show that the stocks of Soviet-era tanks and APC, among other equipment, are nearly empty. The Kremlin has been forced to turn to allies like North Korea and Iran to top up its supplies of missiles, shells and drones.

Shortages make ceasefire talks more likely

Putin quickly put Russia’s economy on a war footing following invasion in February 2022 and output of arms and ammo soared. However, that has left little over to meeting Russia’s export obligations.

Despite heavy investment in the military industrial complex, the output has not been able to meet demand and Russia has been running down in its military stocks much faster than they can be replenished.

Ukraine is also desperately short of materiel and entirely dependent on Western allies for supplies. Ukraine does not have the resources to reclaim occupied Crimea and Donbas by military means, so it is counting on diplomacy – Zelenskiy said on December 18 in Brussels.

"The Russians now control these territories. We do not have the strength to reclaim them. We can only count on diplomatic pressure from the international community to force Putin to sit at the negotiating table."

Both armies are running low and as the war enters its end game, with widespread speculation that the incoming President-elect Donald Trump will bring the fighting to an end, it is hoped that Putin will be forced to make some compromises and offer a “just peace.”

"Real negotiations for a lasting peace will begin only when the enemy no longer has the resources to continue the war," head of Ukraine’s presidential office, Andriy Yermak told the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities in Lviv on December 19, as cited by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Russia intends to win the war in 2025

In lieu of a deal, the Kremlin is preparing for a protracted war and getting ready to rebuild its military might. In September, the Kremlin launched a long-term military reconstitution programme aimed at restoring the losses incurred during its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“It is clear that the military-industrial complex is counting on a halt, a freeze, an end to the war in order to return to fulfilling export contracts… because they provided a good inflow of hard currency,” Luzin said.

Putin has already increased the upper limit of men under arms to 1.5mn on September 16 from 1mn previously, but the biggest challenge will be to equip them and replace the materiel already used over the last two years of war – and pay for it.

Russia plans to continue the war until it fully occupies four annexed regions in 2025, Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov said on December 17 at a meeting with senior defence ministry officials. According to Belousov only 1% of the territory of Luhansk and 25-30% of the territory of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions remain under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU),

He said that Moscow intends to fully seize the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine in the new year and that Russia will achieve "the goals announced by President Putin in June," adding: "In 2025, Moscow plans to win the war."

Moscow is not satisfied with current proposals to freeze the war, so Russian troops will continue to fight if Ukraine does not agree to Putin's conditions, Russia's UN representative, Vasily Nebenzia, said at a Security Council meeting the same day.

At the defence ministry meeting Belousov also raised the possibility of a conflict between Russia and Nato breaking out for the first time that could happen sometime in the coming years.

Belousov said that the Kremlin is also against any Nato participation in ending the war, as talk of Nato peacekeepers in Ukraine goes from “unthinkable” to “discussed”.

On June 14, Putin said that Russia would agree to a ceasefire and peace talks only if Ukraine withdrew from four Ukrainian regions and formally abandoned its aspirations to join Nato. The demands also included recognition of Crimea and Sevastopol as part of Russia. More recently leaked comments from the Kremlin suggest there is some wiggle room in the proposed negotiations and the Kremlin is prepared to offer “limited” territorial concessionsReuters reported in November.

Europe is as unprepared for a direct conflict with Russia, but, as bne IntelliNews reported, has a much more serious shortfall of arms and productive capacity after decades of underinvestment. With the leading EU members wracked by budget crises, it also has a lot less money to spend on rearming. Germany, in particular, which has the second largest army in Europe on paper, will not be able to return to pre-war levels of armament for decades.

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for PERMANENT ARMS ECONOMY


Turkey, Syria tandem could mean piped Qatari gas for Europe and a supercharged Middle East clean energy transition

Turkey, Syria tandem could mean piped Qatari gas for Europe and a supercharged Middle East clean energy transition
A Turkish-Syrian grid integration could see Turkey assist Syria in tapping into its abundant solar resources. / kallerna, cc-by-sa 4.0
By bne IntelliNews December 21, 2024

Turkey as the terminus for a new pipeline bringing gas up from the world’s largest gas field in the Gulf off the peninsula of Qatar. Turkey as the premier gas hub serving Europe. Turkey as a crucial node in the emerging Eastern Mediterranean electricity network. And Turkey as the northern anchor of a growing regional power system integrating vast renewable energy investments expanded across Syrian territory. The energy role that Turkey could theoretically wield as a result of the collapse of the half-a-century-old Assad dynasty of neighbouring Syria are immeasurable.

Having backed the winning side in the 13-year-long multi-sided Syria conflict, the Turks, who are working closely with the militants seeking to erect a viable post-Assad government in Damascus, are very much in the room when it comes to shaping Syria’s future.

The energy prize could be huge. But not, say the sceptics, if the new Syria dissolves into a case of rats in a barrel. Renewed conflict could deal a fatal blow to many of the energy ambitions currently causing tangible excitement among Turkish energy officials, but there again, even a stabilised western side of the country might open the door to some tempting investments. One of those could be a Qatar-Saudi Arabia-Jordan-Syria-Turkey pipeline that would ship vast volumes of gas from the Qatari side of the North Dome/South Pars field shared with Iran in the Gulf to Turkey for forwarding to Europe.

As observed in a commentary by Karim Elgendy, a Chatham House associate fellow who specialises in analysing fields including the energy transition, Ankara’s vision is that Turkey will serve as the key transit point between gas producers to its east and south, and markets to its west.

A new stability in Syria could allow, concurs Elgendy, “the revival of the long-dormant pipeline project to connect Qatari natural gas fields with Turkey via Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria. The plan had been rejected by the Assad regime, reportedly to protect Russian gas exports into European markets [on behalf of ally Russia]. It took the Turkish energy minister, Alparslan Bayraktar, just two days after [president Bashar al-]Assad’s fall to publicly express openness to revisiting the plan.”

“By creating a gas pipeline to the west of Syria,” continues Elgendy, “and connecting to the existing Arab Gas Pipeline network (which links Syria, Jordan, and Egypt) Turkey could [also] offer regional gas producers such as Israel and Egypt a more commercially viable route to European markets than current [liquefied natural gas] LNG alternatives. 

“This would effectively challenge the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) – an alliance that includes Egypt, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, Palestine, Jordan, Italy, and France. 

“The EMGF’s flagship EastMed Pipeline project has struggled with technical and financial viability, with its proposed 1,900-kilometer [1,181-mile] deepwater pipeline connecting Israel and Cyprus to Greece making little progress. The pipeline was also dealt a significant blow when the US withdrew support in 2022.

“A land-based route through Syria to Turkey’s existing infrastructure would provide a shorter, technically simpler, and more cost-effective alternative.”

Would a "stable" Syria cooperating with Turkey in energy policy prove the missing link for multiple major gas pipeline, renewables and grid investments in the Middle East? (Credit: CIA World Factbook, cc, public domain).

Does it all sound too good to be true? Perhaps. Another downside for Turkey in betting on a gas hub-and-spoke model to reap lucrative energy export rewards is that, even if Syria does stabilise in a favourable way for Ankara, Europe’s appetite for gas will fall off beyond 2030 amid the push for net zero to address the climate crisis. Not surprisingly, for international financiers the attraction of investments in fossil fuel infrastructure is on the wane.  

The critical decision of Turkey, notes Elgendy, is “whether to pursue traditional gas hub ambitions that may face diminishing returns, seeking influence through traditional pipeline politics – or to leverage this moment to position itself at the centre of the region’s clean energy transition”. 

Concludes the analyst: “Prioritizing sustainable energy over conventional gas networks seems the best method by which Turkey could transform its temporary strategic advantage into lasting regional influence.

“Regardless, the choices Ankara makes in the coming months will be pivotal for its future as a regional hub – and for the entire Eastern Mediterranean energy landscape.”

The cost of the Syrian post-war reconstruction will, by some estimates, run to an estimated $400bn. Given such enormous expenditure and opportunities to start afresh in infrastructure, for Syria now might be the time to bite the bullet and go big on energy beyond fossil fuels. And, alongside his enthusiasm for gas, Bayraktar has indicated that Ankara would be interested in collaborating with Syria in this area.

Bayraktar, who in late November took a Turkish green energy roadshow to London, during which, in a meeting coordinated by JPMorgan, he spoke with senior executives of global companies operating in renewables, says Turkey aims to boost its combined wind (offshore and onshore) and solar (including floating solar) energy capacity from 30 gigawatts to 120 GW by 2035 with $108bn of public and private investment.

Though often the target of brickbats for its continued major use of coal in generating power (the country now leads Europe in this particular “dirty” table), Turkey also regularly wins plaudits for the rate of expansion seen in its renewable energy network and is looking to build a range of large and small nuclear power plants, despite serious delays. Some 43% of electricity in the country was generated through wind, solar and hydroelectric in 2023.

At the late November Istanbul Energy Forum, Alkim Bag Gullu, director of SHURA Energy Transition Center, pointed out Turkey’s ambitious goals in building up renewables within the energy mix, including rollouts of battery energy storage capacity. “[..A]s of today, approximately 35 gigawatts of battery energy storage capacity has been allocated to be integrated into wind and solar plants,” he said.

For practical assistance in managing an energy revolution, it seems Syria need look no further than its northern neighbour.

“This [renewables] model is particularly relevant given Syria’s abundant solar resources and urgent need to rebuild its power generation capacity to fuel economic development,” says Elgendy.

Indeed, a Turkish-Syrian grid integration drawing on a radical commitment to renewables could even drive development of the emerging Eastern Mediterranean electricity network.

For Elgendy, the network’s other components – the Egypt-Saudi Arabia Inter-connector, the Great Sea Inter-connector (Israel-Cyprus-Greece), and the GREGY Inter-connector (Egypt-Greece) – collectively represent “an emerging power architecture that could transform regional energy security and support the integration of renewables. It could also foster economic cooperation and help reduce geopolitical tensions through increased interdependence”.

Iranian ambassador claims US sets conditions on Syrian-Iranian relations

Iranian ambassador claims US sets conditions on Syrian-Iranian relations
Iran's ambassador to Lebanon has alleged that the United States has established specific conditions regarding Iran's future role in Syria / bne IntelliNews
By bnm Gulf bureau December 21, 2024

Iran's ambassador to Lebanon has alleged that the United States has established specific conditions regarding Iran's future role in Syria, following the fall of the Assad regime.

Ambassador Mojtaba Amani stated on his social media account that the United States, following its representative's meeting with interim Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, has stipulated that any new Syrian government must exclude Iran from having any role in establishing positive relations with Washington.

In his statement, Ambassador Amani drew parallels with previous US diplomatic engagements in the region, particularly citing American interactions with the Muslim Brotherhood between 2011 and 2013.

Amani, who lost his eye and fingers in Israel's pager attack on Hezbollah and has since returned to his post in the Lebanese capital, has been a key player between Tehran.

He specifically referenced similar conditions allegedly presented to former Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi.

"When they saw Morsi was isolated, the time for American betrayal arrived. What was meant to happen occurred, and fate took its course," Amani wrote, suggesting a pattern in US diplomatic approaches to regional allies.

The comments emerge against the backdrop of long-standing Iranian involvement in Syria, where Tehran removed its troops and most diplomatic staff. 

Earlier on December 21, Tehran announced the death of one of its remaining employees in Damascus, who was reportedly killed in a sniper attack. 

The US State Department has not yet responded to these claims about conditions for future Syrian-American relati

Trump signals readiness for Iran nuclear talks via Omani channel – Iraqi media

Trump signals readiness for Iran nuclear talks via Omani channel – Iraqi media
Trump signals readiness for Iran nuclear talks via Omani channel – Iraqi media / bne IntelliNews
By bne Gulf bureau December 22, 2024

US President-elect Donald Trump has sent a message to Tehran through Omani intermediaries expressing readiness to negotiate a new nuclear deal if re-elected, an Iranian official with direct knowledge of the matter told Iraqi newspaper Baghdad Alyoum on December 22.

The diplomatic outreach, delivered in recent days, indicated Trump's willingness to pursue high-level direct talks with Iran early in a potential second term. However, any new agreement would differ from the 2015 nuclear deal he abandoned, the sources said.

"Iran received a message from the elected US administration through Oman, which is one of the important channels in exchanging messages between Tehran and Washington," the source was quoted as saying.

The Omani channel has historically served as a back channel for sensitive US-Iran communications. Trump withdrew from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, reimposing sanctions on Tehran.

According to the source, Trump will wait "no more than a few months" for Iranian officials to respond regarding their readiness to negotiate on several issues, primarily the nuclear file.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's administration is weighing its response as the country deals with economic and environmental challenges, including a roughly 300% currency depreciation over eight years and multiple days of shutdowns over its ongoing energy crisis, an economist said, speaking with IntelliNews on December 22.

Iran's currency, the rial, tumbled to its lowest-ever value against the dollar recently, hitting a low of IRR770,000 against the dollar. 

Trump has set a timeline of several months for Iran to indicate willingness to negotiate on issues including its nuclear programme, according to the sources. However, they noted that US commitment to any new agreement would not be guaranteed.

The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Iranian and US governments do not have formal diplomatic relations.

Analysts say any renewed negotiations would face significant obstacles given the history of mistrust between the nations and regional tensions.

The Iraqi newspaper report comes as the New York Times previously photographed billionaire Elon Musk reportedly leaving a meeting with Iran's diplomats in the UN. 

Trump has genuine opportunity to negotiate Iran nuclear deal

Trump has genuine opportunity to negotiate Iran nuclear deal

TEHRAN, Dec. 22 (MNA) – National security adviser Jake Sullivan suggested there is a “genuine opportunity” for President-elect Donald Trump to be a key player in getting an Iran nuclear deal following fall of Bashar Assad government in Syria.

According to the CNN report, Sullivan, however, highlighted the “real risk” that Iran may revisit its nuclear doctrine in the aftermath of the Assad government in Syria.

“It’s a risk that I’m personally briefing the incoming team on. I was just in Israel, consulting with the Israelis on this risk,” he told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria in an interview that aired Sunday.

Iran’s “conventional capability has been reduced,” Sullivan claimed.

The US official said that Iran has lost its alleged proxies while the Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei dismissed in a speech earlier on Sunday claims that Iran has been cut off from its “proxy forces” in the region, asserting that the Islamic Republic neither has nor needs such forces to achieve its objectives.

In 2018, Iran activated the dispute resolution mechanism within the Joint Commission of the JCPOA at the level of foreign ministers from the remaining signatories to the agreement. Consequently, the JCPOA members issued a statement outlining 11 commitments aimed at compensating for the economic damages caused by the United States’ unilateral withdrawal from the deal and re-imposition of sanctions against Iran.

Iran honored its commitments under the JCPOA for a year following the US withdrawal, hoping to give European nations time to fulfill their promises to mitigate the impacts of Washington’s unilateral exit. Nevertheless, as European countries failed to meet their commitments, Iran began to reduce its obligations under the JCPOA in several stages.

Negotiations to resume the implementation of the JCPOA have been held over eight rounds in Vienna, with representatives from the remaining signatories of the deal, the European Union, and Iran participating. The US delegation took part in the discussions indirectly.

However, the talks have stalled due to factors such as contradictions in behavior, delays in decision-making, excessive demands, and new requests from the United States.

MNA

Historical fabric of Lebanese city of Nabatieh also falls victim to Israeli strikes

Speaking with Anadolu, historian Ali Mezraani highlights historical importance of Nabatieh Market and Fadl’s House damaged in Israeli strikes

Muhammed Emin Canik |22.12.2024 - TRT/AA

A view of the destruction following Israeli attack in Nabatieh,
 Lebanon on December 20, 2024.

NABATIEH, Lebanon

The historical fabric of the city of Nabatieh, one of the most targeted places by the Israeli army in Lebanon, was also damaged during the attacks.

In Nabatieh, where Israel intensified airstrikes in September and continued until Nov. 27, a significant number of historically valuable buildings and the city's market suffered severe damage.

Among the damaged historical sites is the house of former Economy Minister Muhammad Bek el-Fadl, who played a role in Lebanon's independence.

Speaking with Anadolu, historian Ali Mezraani highlighted the historical importance of the Nabatieh Market and Fadl’s House which were damaged in Israeli strikes.

Emphasizing that the Israeli attacks particularly targeted historical buildings in Nabatieh, Mezraani noted: "There are approximately 10 historical houses that have been damaged in Nabatieh."

He also pointed out that the city's market, which dates back 500 years and is from the Mamluk era, was severely damaged in the Israeli airstrikes, with surrounding shops dating back to the mid-19th century also destroyed.

Mezraani underlined the importance of restoring the city's historical buildings with a sense of heritage.

He further stated that Fadl was a significant figure in Lebanon's independence and his name and signature can be found on the Lebanese flag that declared the country's independence.

Mezraani also stated that Fadl's family traces its roots to an influential family that governed the region 200 years ago and that the house was built in the 1930s.

He highlighted that the house represented Nabatieh's historical and artistic identity, and that it had suffered significant damage in the Israeli attacks.

"Muhammad el-Fadl donated most of the land in this area to the people of Nabatieh, the poor, and those in need. He also donated the building of the Tekmiliyyeh School in the city,” he added.

He further said that important meetings were held in Fadl's House, and that in 1945, the then-president also visited the house.

"This house was one of the rare and historic houses remaining in Nabatieh. It is a fusion of Western and Lebanese architecture, with a large hall greeting you upon entering and arches between the rooms,” Merzaani said while describing the house.

He added that the house was decorated with wood and featured intricate carvings around it, calling it "one of the rarest houses in southern Lebanon in terms of its architecture."

Fadl's House: Famous for generosity

Misbah Ammar, a retired dentist who lived in the neighboring house of Fadl, said: "I have been living here for over 50 years. This place has been severely damaged due to the Israeli attacks."

Stating that the surrounding houses were at least 70 years old, he noted: "This entire neighborhood belonged to Fadl, and he was a person respected by people. His house was at least 100 years old."

Ammar added that especially before elections, meetings and celebrations were often held at Fadl's House.

“His door was always open, and he was known for his generosity," he said.

Ammar mentioned that the house across Fadl's House was also bombed and completely destroyed by Israeli warplanes.

In addition, the people of Nabatieh believe that despite Fadl's crucial role in Lebanon's independence, he did not receive the recognition he deserved from the state.

Fadl passed away on March 5, 1986.

*Writing by Esra Tekin in Istanbul
QUISLING COMPRADORS

Eyeing role in post-war Gaza, Palestinian Authority intensifies crackdown on fighters in West Bank

The Palestinian Authority has launched its largest and most heavily armed operation in its three decades to thwart Palestinian fighters in Jenin.

Naela Khalil
Jerusalem
The New Arab Staff
London
22 December, 2024


Snipers have also been stationed throughout the camp as part of the PA's effort to establish control over the area, which is home to around 25,000 Palestinians originally displaced from their homes during the creation of Israel in 1948 [Getty]

Armed clashes erupted again early on Sunday in the Jenin refugee camp in the northern West Bank, where Palestinian Authority (PA) security officers - backed by Israeli military - continued their crackdown on Palestinian resistance fighters.

Local sources reported hearing gunfire around the camp's entrances and perimeter, as PA security forces encircling the camp clashed with fighters from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)'s Jenin Brigade.

On Sunday, Palestinian news agency Wafa, reported the first death of a member of the PA security forces, Saher Farouk Jumaa Erheil of the presidential guard.

Erheil, one of four Palestinians including a 14-year-old boy killed in Jenin this month, was the first member of the security forces to die in the violence. Others killed were a fighter, and a 19-year-old passerby on a motorcycle.

Meanwhile, the PIJ called for a general strike and mass mobilisation on Sunday, urging mass demonstrations towards the camp to lift the siege and end the PA's crackdown, which the group said only serves Israel's occupation of the West Bank and expansion of settlements

"The mobilisation is the least moral duty we can fulfil to uphold the Palestinian cause; it is essential to support Jenin and its resistance fighters while honouring the sacrifices of our brothers in besieged Gaza," the PIJ said in a statement.

For the past 18 days, Palestinian fighters in Jenin have been locked in a rare open battle with the PA forces, arrested more than two dozen Palestinian fighters were arrested.

PA security forces have taken control of approximately ten homes within the camp, converting them into military outposts and forcibly displacing their residents.

Snipers have also been stationed throughout the camp as part of the PA's effort to establish control over the area, which is home to around 25,000 Palestinians originally displaced from their homes during the creation of Israel in 1948.
Related

Analysis
Issam Ahmed

A Wall Street Journal report on Sunday stated that the PA, backed by the West, is attempting to demonstrate its ability to manage security in its limited areas of the West Bank as it aims to govern a postwar Gaza Strip.

In the latest round of ceasefire negotiations, Israel has agreed to let the PA take over administration of the Rafah border between Gaza and Egypt for a short period, according to a former Egyptian official cited by the WSJ.

It comes as Israeli officials revealed that the Israeli military was backing efforts to increase coordination and cooperation with the PA under government orders.

While the PA has a relatively strong presence in the southern and central West Bank cities, it has failed to assert control in the northern part of the territory, especially the refugee camps in Jenin, Nablus and Tulkarem areas.

The Israeli army sought to encourage the PA to continue in its crackdown operations, with officials saying Israeli forces would "do what they can" to ensure the PA was "strong" and "successful" in its operations against "terrorists".

Recent reports by Israeli media highlighted that the crackdown would "benefit" Israel, highlighting that steps were being taken to "bolster" PA forces.