What will be achieved with a provincial vote to start picking equalization apart? In all likelihood, very little
Author of the article: Don Braid • Calgary Herald
Publishing date: Oct 14, 2021 •
Premier Jason Kenney provided an update on COVID-19 and the ongoing work to protect public health at the McDougall Centre in Calgary on Tuesday, September 28, 2021.
PHOTO BY DARREN MAKOWICHUK/POSTMEDIA
Are Albertans really about to demand an end to equalization nationwide?
A Leger poll for Postmedia suggests it could happen in Monday’s provincial referendum .
Fifty per cent of Calgarians will vote yes on the call to remove the principle of equalization from the Constitution, the survey finds.
Only about 34 per cent of Edmontonians agree. But the poll doesn’t cover the rest of the province, where support for abolition will probably be strong.
There’s no certainty, but on balance it appears the question could succeed. That would be a huge relief to Premier Jason Kenney.
Many in his own party fear that his unpopularity could cut into support. If the high-stakes question fails, they say, Alberta would have no cards to play for a generation.
Other Albertans feel the question should have been softer, simply seeking negotiations and reform without demanding an end to equalization for everyone in Canada.
A question like that would probably get a huge majority. But this is a demand to abolish the very underpinning of equalization. It will offend a lot of people across the country.
Equalization is undeniably stacked in favour of Quebec, but there are provinces, such as P.E.I., that need help maintaining services at a reasonable national level.
That’s been the whole point of equalization since the first payments were made in 1957 — to create a rough national equality in education, health care and other services.
It was never meant to equalize provincial economies, although that often seems to be the modern goal for Quebec.
Veteran journalist Mary Janigan, in her epic 2020 book, The Art of Sharing, writes that “equalization is vital to the survival of the nation. But it can only continue if the poorer and richer provinces deem the bargain to be fair.”
Alberta has always been a net contributor through taxation. The provincial economy has fallen far since 2015, yet we are still balanced precariously on the “have” side of the national equation.
Economic decline has only deepened the feeling that equalization is profoundly discriminatory. And as Janigan suggests, that is dangerous to both the program and the country.
But what will be achieved with a provincial vote to start picking it apart?
In all likelihood, very little.
The UCP suggests that a yes vote would force “a duty to negotiate” declared in the 1998 Supreme Court reference on succession.
But that’s not quite so, according to U of C emeritus professor Rainer Knopff, one of Alberta’s leading experts on the Constitution.
He says the duty is triggered only when a provincial referendum seeks secession from Canada, not when the subject is equalization.
That fact would “give reluctant governments a ready excuse to ignore Alberta’s proposed equalization referendum,” he wrote.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is hardly likely to agree to major talks on equalization as long as he needs Quebec seats — which is to say, forever.
But Knopff notes another twist: If the people of a province pass a referendum on any constitutional subject, and the government then votes a similar resolution in the legislature, the other provinces and Ottawa do have a duty to negotiate.
The trigger is the legislature resolution, not the referendum.
All this is recognized in the province’s new Referendum Act. Kenney hasn’t publicly talked much about the second step. He usually suggests the referendum alone will trigger national negotiations.
But even if the UCP does pass a legislature resolution, Ottawa is not compelled to talk.
As one expert notes, the Supreme Court set no enforcement rules or compliance guidelines, nothing that would prevent years of stalling.
Lawyers could argue forever about whether Ottawa must negotiate, and when.
What should Albertans do next Monday? I’d say, vote for whatever makes you feel good. Just don’t expect it to mean anything.
Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Herald
Twitter: @DonBraid
Facebook: Don Braid Politics
Are Albertans really about to demand an end to equalization nationwide?
A Leger poll for Postmedia suggests it could happen in Monday’s provincial referendum .
Fifty per cent of Calgarians will vote yes on the call to remove the principle of equalization from the Constitution, the survey finds.
Only about 34 per cent of Edmontonians agree. But the poll doesn’t cover the rest of the province, where support for abolition will probably be strong.
There’s no certainty, but on balance it appears the question could succeed. That would be a huge relief to Premier Jason Kenney.
Many in his own party fear that his unpopularity could cut into support. If the high-stakes question fails, they say, Alberta would have no cards to play for a generation.
Other Albertans feel the question should have been softer, simply seeking negotiations and reform without demanding an end to equalization for everyone in Canada.
A question like that would probably get a huge majority. But this is a demand to abolish the very underpinning of equalization. It will offend a lot of people across the country.
Equalization is undeniably stacked in favour of Quebec, but there are provinces, such as P.E.I., that need help maintaining services at a reasonable national level.
That’s been the whole point of equalization since the first payments were made in 1957 — to create a rough national equality in education, health care and other services.
It was never meant to equalize provincial economies, although that often seems to be the modern goal for Quebec.
Veteran journalist Mary Janigan, in her epic 2020 book, The Art of Sharing, writes that “equalization is vital to the survival of the nation. But it can only continue if the poorer and richer provinces deem the bargain to be fair.”
Alberta has always been a net contributor through taxation. The provincial economy has fallen far since 2015, yet we are still balanced precariously on the “have” side of the national equation.
Economic decline has only deepened the feeling that equalization is profoundly discriminatory. And as Janigan suggests, that is dangerous to both the program and the country.
But what will be achieved with a provincial vote to start picking it apart?
In all likelihood, very little.
The UCP suggests that a yes vote would force “a duty to negotiate” declared in the 1998 Supreme Court reference on succession.
But that’s not quite so, according to U of C emeritus professor Rainer Knopff, one of Alberta’s leading experts on the Constitution.
He says the duty is triggered only when a provincial referendum seeks secession from Canada, not when the subject is equalization.
That fact would “give reluctant governments a ready excuse to ignore Alberta’s proposed equalization referendum,” he wrote.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is hardly likely to agree to major talks on equalization as long as he needs Quebec seats — which is to say, forever.
But Knopff notes another twist: If the people of a province pass a referendum on any constitutional subject, and the government then votes a similar resolution in the legislature, the other provinces and Ottawa do have a duty to negotiate.
The trigger is the legislature resolution, not the referendum.
All this is recognized in the province’s new Referendum Act. Kenney hasn’t publicly talked much about the second step. He usually suggests the referendum alone will trigger national negotiations.
But even if the UCP does pass a legislature resolution, Ottawa is not compelled to talk.
As one expert notes, the Supreme Court set no enforcement rules or compliance guidelines, nothing that would prevent years of stalling.
Lawyers could argue forever about whether Ottawa must negotiate, and when.
What should Albertans do next Monday? I’d say, vote for whatever makes you feel good. Just don’t expect it to mean anything.
Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Herald
Twitter: @DonBraid
Facebook: Don Braid Politics
No comments:
Post a Comment