NATO's flirtation with adding 2 more members runs the risk of starting a war the US can't afford to fight
Sascha Glaeser, Defense Priorities
Sun, 24 October 2021
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at a NATO Defense Ministers meeting in Brussels, October 21, 2021. REUTERS/Pascal Rossignol
While in Europe this month, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made clear that Ukraine and Georgia may still join NATO.
Ukraine and Georgia have much in common with other NATO members - including a rivalry with their neighbor, Russia.
But offering them membership is a dangerous and counterproductive policy that doesn't serve US national interests.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is visiting Europe this week having said Ukraine and Georgia have an "open door to NATO" and that "no third country has a veto over NATO's membership decisions."
Because both countries have been on the receiving end of Russian aggression, it is natural to feel sympathy for Ukraine and Georgia - but offering them NATO membership is an extremely dangerous and counterproductive policy that does not serve the US national interest.
Rather than bolster the security of the American people, as one would expect US defense policy to do, expanding NATO increases the risk of the United States being drawn into a war with Russia. Moving forward in the process of offering NATO membership to Ukraine or Georgia risks igniting a major NATO-Russia conflict.
Should an attack follow Ukraine or Georgia's formal acceptance into the alliance, NATO's Article 5 would legally require the United States to militarily intervene. Such a scenario could quickly escalate to the nuclear level, making it imperative that the conceivably devastating consequences of NATO enlargement are honestly assessed.
Unfortunately, Austin's comments are just the latest example of US policy makers failing to accept the geopolitical reality of eastern Europe.
Russian troops at a checkpoint in a village near the region of South Ossetia, roughly 62 miles from Tbilisi, Georgia, August 5, 2008
Irakli Gedenidze/Reuters
The 2008 Bucharest NATO Summit was a significant turning point for European security. There, it was formally announced that Ukraine and Georgia would eventually become members of the alliance.
In response, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters "We will do all we can to prevent Ukraine's and Georgia's accession into NATO and to avoid an inevitable serious exacerbation of our relations with both the alliance and our neighbors."
Other top officials went further, with one Russian general saying, "Russia will take unambiguous action toward ensuring its interests along its borders. These will not only be military steps, but also steps of a different character." In other words, Moscow made it clear that either country's entry into the alliance would cross a red line and Russia would be prepared to use all facets of power, including military intervention, to enforce that red line.
Russia made good on its promise. In 2008 it fought a five-day war with Georgia and established de facto control of the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and provided military support to pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.
Moscow effectively created buffer zones in both countries that separate Russia's borders from Western-backed governments. It has also cunningly ensured that both conflicts remain frozen, using the threat of further escalation as a potential hedge to prevent NATO accession.
Ukrainian soldiers conduct a drill with tanks in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, April 24, 2021.
The 2008 Bucharest NATO Summit was a significant turning point for European security. There, it was formally announced that Ukraine and Georgia would eventually become members of the alliance.
In response, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters "We will do all we can to prevent Ukraine's and Georgia's accession into NATO and to avoid an inevitable serious exacerbation of our relations with both the alliance and our neighbors."
Other top officials went further, with one Russian general saying, "Russia will take unambiguous action toward ensuring its interests along its borders. These will not only be military steps, but also steps of a different character." In other words, Moscow made it clear that either country's entry into the alliance would cross a red line and Russia would be prepared to use all facets of power, including military intervention, to enforce that red line.
Russia made good on its promise. In 2008 it fought a five-day war with Georgia and established de facto control of the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and provided military support to pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.
Moscow effectively created buffer zones in both countries that separate Russia's borders from Western-backed governments. It has also cunningly ensured that both conflicts remain frozen, using the threat of further escalation as a potential hedge to prevent NATO accession.
Ukrainian soldiers conduct a drill with tanks in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, April 24, 2021.
Armed Forces of Ukraine/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
Americans need only look at our own history to understand why Russia has acted in this manner. The United States established the Monroe Doctrine in the early 1800s, claiming that any intervention by European powers in the western hemisphere would be viewed as an act hostile to the United States.
By the end of the 19th century, the United States had successfully driven out all other great powers and established itself as the regional hegemon of the New World. When the Soviet Union challenged the US position in 1962 by deploying military assets 90 miles off the coast of Florida, the world was brought to the brink of nuclear Armageddon.
If the United States does not tolerate such behavior, why does the Biden administration believe that expanding NATO - and therefore the presence of US troops - on Russia's borders will be viewed by Moscow as benign?
Providing hope to Kyiv and Tbilisi that NATO will come to its defense also creates a moral hazard problem. Rather than making the difficult political accommodations necessary to end their respective conflicts, Ukrainian and Georgian leaders are incentivized to shift their security burden on the United States by taking a hardline stance against Moscow.
This escalates US-Russia tensions and is not particularly kind to average Ukrainians and Georgians, who would likely bear the brunt of any renewed conflict.
The reality is that Moscow views the prevention of Ukraine and Georgia from joining NATO as a core strategic interest. As such, Russia will go to great lengths to achieve this objective. The Biden administration should conclude that it is not worth risking World War III over two countries with little geopolitical significance.
As the United States shifts its focus to the larger strategic threat of China, US policymakers would be wise to seek détente with Russia. Such an effort would start by taking Ukrainian and Georgian NATO membership off the table.
Sascha Glaeser is a research associate at Defense Priorities. He focuses on US grand strategy, international security, and transatlantic relations. He holds a master of international public affairs and a bachelor's in international studies from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Americans need only look at our own history to understand why Russia has acted in this manner. The United States established the Monroe Doctrine in the early 1800s, claiming that any intervention by European powers in the western hemisphere would be viewed as an act hostile to the United States.
By the end of the 19th century, the United States had successfully driven out all other great powers and established itself as the regional hegemon of the New World. When the Soviet Union challenged the US position in 1962 by deploying military assets 90 miles off the coast of Florida, the world was brought to the brink of nuclear Armageddon.
If the United States does not tolerate such behavior, why does the Biden administration believe that expanding NATO - and therefore the presence of US troops - on Russia's borders will be viewed by Moscow as benign?
Providing hope to Kyiv and Tbilisi that NATO will come to its defense also creates a moral hazard problem. Rather than making the difficult political accommodations necessary to end their respective conflicts, Ukrainian and Georgian leaders are incentivized to shift their security burden on the United States by taking a hardline stance against Moscow.
This escalates US-Russia tensions and is not particularly kind to average Ukrainians and Georgians, who would likely bear the brunt of any renewed conflict.
The reality is that Moscow views the prevention of Ukraine and Georgia from joining NATO as a core strategic interest. As such, Russia will go to great lengths to achieve this objective. The Biden administration should conclude that it is not worth risking World War III over two countries with little geopolitical significance.
As the United States shifts its focus to the larger strategic threat of China, US policymakers would be wise to seek détente with Russia. Such an effort would start by taking Ukrainian and Georgian NATO membership off the table.
Sascha Glaeser is a research associate at Defense Priorities. He focuses on US grand strategy, international security, and transatlantic relations. He holds a master of international public affairs and a bachelor's in international studies from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Defense News October 2021 Global Security army industry
POSTED ON SATURDAY, 23 OCTOBER 2021
According to a Tweet published by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense on October 22, 2021, the third final batch of additional international security assistance from the Government of the United States of America has arrived in Ukraine, including ammunition, anti-tank and high-precision weapons, medical equipment, etc.
According to a Tweet published by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense on October 22, 2021, the third final batch of additional international security assistance from the Government of the United States of America has arrived in Ukraine, including ammunition, anti-tank and high-precision weapons, medical equipment, etc.
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Ukraine has taken delivery of the third batch of U.S. military equipment.
(Picture source Twitter Ukraine MoD)
According to a U.S. Congress report, the United States is a leading contributor of foreign assistance to Ukraine, including over $300 million a year since FY2015 in nonmilitary, non-humanitarian assistance. The United States also provides substantial military assistance to Ukraine, including via a newly established Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative that provides “appropriate security assistance and intelligence support” to help Ukraine defend against aggression and support its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The United States has been a leading contributor of foreign assistance to Ukraine. Non-military, non-humanitarian assistance in FY2014 amounted to around $80 million and rose to around $315 million in FY2015. In FY2016, non-military, non-humanitarian assistance totaled $575 million, around half of which ($290 million) was the subsidy cost of a $1 billion sovereign loan guarantee, the third the U.S. government had extended to Ukraine since 2014.
The United States has also provided military assistance to Ukraine. In July 2016, the White House stated that the United States had committed over $600 million in total security (mostly military) assistance since the Ukraine conflict began in 2014 (this included funds for FY2014 and FY2015).
According to the SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) arms trade database since 2015 United States has delivered 210 FGM-148 Javelin Anti-tank missiles, 50 HMMWV Up-Armored APV (Armored Protected Vehicle) M-1114 and M-1151 versions, 13 TPQ-36 Fire-finder Artillery locating radar, 5 Island Patrol craft Ukrainian designation Slavyansk, and 150 FGM-148 Javelin Anti-tank missiles.
Putin: visit of U.S. Secretary of Defense to Kyiv will open NATO’s doors for Ukraine
According to a U.S. Congress report, the United States is a leading contributor of foreign assistance to Ukraine, including over $300 million a year since FY2015 in nonmilitary, non-humanitarian assistance. The United States also provides substantial military assistance to Ukraine, including via a newly established Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative that provides “appropriate security assistance and intelligence support” to help Ukraine defend against aggression and support its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The United States has been a leading contributor of foreign assistance to Ukraine. Non-military, non-humanitarian assistance in FY2014 amounted to around $80 million and rose to around $315 million in FY2015. In FY2016, non-military, non-humanitarian assistance totaled $575 million, around half of which ($290 million) was the subsidy cost of a $1 billion sovereign loan guarantee, the third the U.S. government had extended to Ukraine since 2014.
The United States has also provided military assistance to Ukraine. In July 2016, the White House stated that the United States had committed over $600 million in total security (mostly military) assistance since the Ukraine conflict began in 2014 (this included funds for FY2014 and FY2015).
According to the SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) arms trade database since 2015 United States has delivered 210 FGM-148 Javelin Anti-tank missiles, 50 HMMWV Up-Armored APV (Armored Protected Vehicle) M-1114 and M-1151 versions, 13 TPQ-36 Fire-finder Artillery locating radar, 5 Island Patrol craft Ukrainian designation Slavyansk, and 150 FGM-148 Javelin Anti-tank missiles.
Putin: visit of U.S. Secretary of Defense to Kyiv will open NATO’s doors for Ukraine
Friday, October 22, 2021
Russian President Vladimir Putin is confident that the visit of United States secretary of defense Lloyd Austin to Kyiv is intended to open doors for Ukraine to join NATO.
According to the Russian president, the formal membership of Ukraine in the Alliance may not take place, but "the military development of Ukraine is already underway." Putin expressed concern that this poses a real threat to Russia.
"Here comes the defense minister (of the United States), who in fact opens a door for Ukraine to join NATO. In fact, his statement should and can be interpreted in this way. No one says, "No"... This is not a guarantee of security for Russia. These are just empty conversations on a given topic and, of course, we are concerned about it," Putin said during a speech at the Valdai International Discussion Club.
Putin added that he knows the constitutional provision of Ukraine about military bases, but it does not apply to training centers. He believes that "under the disguise of training centers, one can bring anything."
The Russian president said that “if tomorrow missiles appear near Kharkiv, this will be a problem for Russia since it is not Russia that goes there with its missiles, they [NATO] are deploying them under our noses."
On October 19, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, who was in Kyiv on a working visit
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