Friday, January 16, 2026

For Syria’s new rulers, Sunni clans hold the key to stability – and ending sectarian strife

Headed by a close ally of Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa, the recently established Office of Tribes and Clans aims to ease tensions within the country’s Sunni majority, divided between former rebels, those who once sided with the Assad regime, and others in the ranks of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. FRANCE 24’s Wassim Nasr has gained exclusive access to a crucial link in the Syrian reconciliation process.



Issued on: 15/01/2026
FRANCE24
By: Wassim NASR


A view of Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city, where sectarian tensions underscore the huge challenges facing the country's new rulers. © Wassim Nasr, FRANCE 24

Renewed clashes between Syrian security forces and Kurdish fighters in the Aleppo region are a reminder of the volatile communal and sectarian tensions that continue to roil the country more than a year after the fall of the Assad dynasty.

The latest violence follows weeks of deadly clashes last summer pitting Bedouin tribesmen against Druze militias in the country’s south, and after the massacre of Alawite civilians in their western heartland in March and April of last year. 

Each bout of violence underscores the daunting challenge facing Syria’s new rulers as they grapple with the complex, fragile ethnoreligious mosaic of a country ravaged by more than a decade of civil war and riven with bitter divides. 

While the focus is on Syria’s vulnerable minorities, the country’s Sunni majority  –  itself divided along tribal lines and past opposition or allegiance to the Assads – holds the key to stabilising the country and staving off further sectarian strife. 

With that aim in mind, the Syrian presidency set up an “Office of Tribes and Clans” in September headed by Jihad Issa al-Sheikh, also known by his nom de guerre Abu Ahmed Zakour, a longtime fellow traveller of Syria's rebel-turned-president Ahmed al-Sharaa. 

FRANCE 24’s Wassim Nasr was able to meet with al-Sheikh and other members of the office at its three regional branches in Aleppo, Hama and Idlib, gaining exclusive insight into a body that aims to play a key role in the Syrian reconciliation process. 
In Aleppo, old grudges and shifting alliances

Strategically placed alongside Aleppo's Bureau of political affairs, the local branch of the Office of Tribes and Clans has moved into the former premises of the Baath party that ruled Syria for decades under the Assads.  

Its task is to maintain the non-aggression pact between Syria’s former rebels and the Sunni militias that had previously backed the Assad regime, before switching sides during the lightening offensive led by Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in November 2024.  

It was their change of allegiance that led to the fall of Aleppo, Syria’s economic capital, in just three days, hastening the end of Assad rule.  

The largest of these militias, the al-Baqir Brigade, had previously received funding from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and was entrusted with conscripts from the Syrian regular army. This effectively gave them the power of life and death over local inhabitants. 

“The rebels in Aleppo came from the same (Sunni) neighbourhoods (as the militiamen),” said a witness from the early days of the Syrian revolution in 2011, who traced existing rancours to a notorious incident involving a family accused of siding with the Assads.  

“The discord began when the head of the Meraai family and one of his sons were executed and their mutilated bodies displayed in public for several days,” added the witness, describing their killing as a response to the shooting of anti-Assad demonstrators. 

A lynchpin of the al-Baqir Brigade, the Meraai family was widely seen as a tool of the Assad regime to suppress opponents – not necessarily acting on direct orders from Damascus, but rather to preserve its financial interests and the favours granted by the regime.  

Sitting on a plastic chair amid the ruins, a Meraai family member who was imprisoned at the time had a different take on the incident. He said the executions “were unjustified because we simply don’t know who fired at demonstrators from the rooftops”. 


A destroyed building in the al-Salihin neighbourhood of Aleppo. 
© Wassim Nasr, FRANCE 24

Fifteen years on from that fateful incident, his brothers Khaled and Hamza would play a key role in the liberation of Aleppo by Sharaa’s rebel coalition. After more than two years of negotiations and a visit to Sharaa’s bastion in Idlib, Khaled al-Meraai was persuaded by his fellow Bagara clansman Jihad Issa al-Sheikh that the time had come to abandon the Assads. 

Seeing the tide turning, Khaled al-Meraai agreed to secretly harbour an HTS commando unit that would attack a strategic command centre of the Syrian army in Aleppo. Months before the battle, scouts had infiltrated the city to prepare the ground, including Jihad Issa al-Sheikh's own brother, Abu Omar. 

But this crucial role in the liberation of Aleppo has not erased, at least in the eyes of the early rebels, the Sunni family’s earlier participation in the Assad regime’s repressive apparatus. As the former inmate put it, “our relatives will flee the city, fearing revenge, if they don't see me sitting in my chair here every day”. 

While the Meraais still own valuable properties, including a stud farm for purebred Arabian horses, they have been forced to return some of the assets that were confiscated from former rebels. The new Syrian authorities are protecting the family, but without publicly acknowledging the deal that helped bring about the capture of Aleppo  –  even though Hamza al-Meraai was recently photographed with an interior ministry spokesperson in Damascus. 

The Meraai family's stud farm in Aleppo. © Wassim Nasr, FRANCE 24


In addition to Sunni reconciliation, the sprawling multi-faith city faces formidable security challenges. On New Year's Day, a member of the internal security forces was killed while preventing a suicide bomber from attacking a Christian celebration. His funeral was attended by senior officials including the interior minister  as well as representatives of Aleppo’s Christian churches. 

A few kilometres north of the city, residents of the Shiite villages of Nubl and Zahra live under heavy protection from the Syrian army. As soon as Aleppo was captured in late 2024, the villages sent representatives to the city to obtain security guarantees. Once again, Jihad Issa al-Sheikh, the presidential adviser, acted as mediator. Since then, “there has been only one murder”, said a local representative in Nubl.  “In the early days, the local (HTS) commander slept here on the floor to ensure that there would be no abuses.” 

But the situation remains precarious for the Shiite villagers, who are mindful that nearby Sunni villages are still in ruins. “Our [Sunni] neighbours see that we are protected, while they are unable to rebuild their villages and are still living in tents,” said the Nubl resident. “One can imagine and understand what they are going through.” 

Clan leaders gather in Damascus 

On December 9, the Damascus home of Sheikh Abdel Menaam al-Nassif, an early supporter of the Syrian revolution,  hosted a high-level meeting of clan representatives from across the country, presenting the Office of Clans and Tribes with an ideal platform to send a message.  

Addressing the assembly of senior clansmen, Jihad Issa al-Sheikh said the office was “not designed to command you or replace you, but rather to serve as a direct line to President Sharaa”. He then issued an advice to clans tarnished by collaboration with the deposed regime. 

“Those clans that were on Assad’s side should keep a low profile and put forward figures who have not been compromised. We need everyone,” he added. “We must turn the page on old quarrels once and for all by supporting the state and not being a source of destabilisation.” 


Jihad Issa al-Sheikh (left), a key Sharaa aide and head of the Office of Tribes and Clans, attends a meeting in Damascus in December 2025 
© Wassim Nasr, FRANCE 24


Referring to recent sectarian classes, the top Sharaa aide said it was “unacceptable for clans to take up arms at the slightest incident or to join the ranks of our enemies for one reason or another”. 

He added: “We must rise to the challenges we have faced since the liberation of the country.” 

General Hamza al-Hmidi, the head of operations for the Syrian armed forces, then spoke of the deadly summer clashes in Sweida, which saw Bedouin tribesmen converge on the southern province to fight local Druze militias, and led Israel to intervene militarily with strikes on security forces deployed to quell the bloodshed. 

“We were faced with militiamen firing at us at the front and with killers and looters in our wake. These actions, which do not reflect our values, gave (the Israelis) a pretext to bomb us, forcing us to leave the city in the hands of (Druze) militiamen,” lamented the young general. 

The meeting touched on the sensitive subject of cronyism and political appointments, with clan leaders urged to present qualified candidates for administration jobs and the future National Assembly – and to refrain from promoting themselves or their relatives. The message was that the Baath party ways of coopting tribal and clan leaders through clientelism would no longer be accepted. 

The meeting, attended by two representatives of Syria’s new political bureau, led to animated debate. The idea of a "Council of Elders" composed of clan leaders was put forward – a means to preserve their status and influence while separating their role from that of political institutions.  

It’s a delicate balance for Syria’s new rulers, for whom gaining the support of clans necessarily means making concessions, including material ones, particularly in areas that are still outside Damascus’s control. 

Preventing vendettas in Hama and Homs 

The office’s Hama branch had its baptism of fire in the wake of two particularly grisly murders in nearby Homs, which kicked off attacks on Alawite neighbourhoods. Its primary mission was clear: to ease tensions in Syria’s third most populous city.  

In the days following the murders, representatives of various clans acted quickly to prevent an escalation, under the coordination of Sharaa’s adviser al-Sheikh. The investigation revealed that the murders of a married couple, initially presented as sectarian, were in fact an internal family affair. A joint letter from community leaders helped to tamp down reprisals and narrowly avert bloodshed. 

Sheikh Abu Jaafar Khaldoun, head of the Hama office, stressed the importance of inter-community dialogue. “We need to start from scratch and rebuild neighbourly relations,” he said. “This involves simple gestures, such as attending funerals.” 

Khaldoun said interactions with the Alawite, Ismaili and Christian communities helped to defuse tensions after rebel forces took over Hama and then Homs. 

‘We wasted no time after liberation, for fear of reprisals between communities, and even within each community,” he explained. “The first few months were tense, and some people took advantage of the situation to settle old scores.” 
In Idlib, a laboratory for reconciliation 

A rebel bastion and launchpad for the lighting offensive that toppled Assad, northwestern Idlib province has also served as a model for the type of conflict resolution advocated by Syria's new leaders. 

Starting in 2017, Sharaa’s HTS began to work with local clans with a pragmatic goal:  to resolve conflicts between rival factions in areas outside the regime's control, drawing on clan ties shared both by residents and the province’s large number of internally displaced people. After a series of military setbacks in 2019, the clans were gradually integrated as a supporting force for HTS and the "Syrian Salvation Government" that administered the rebel holdout.  

This dual experience, both military and mediatory, is the foundation of the new Office of Clans and Tribes, whose leaders are largely drawn from the ranks of Idlib’s displaced population. 


A tent used by the head of the office's Idlib branch in the northwestern province. 
© Wassim Nasr, FRANCE 24


A key role of the office’s local branch is to maintain a link between the new Syrian authorities and displaced people from eastern Syria. The latter include both the clans based in areas controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and displaced people from Raqqa, Hassaka or Deir ez-Zor – populations often buffeted by war, forced displacement and shifting alliances.   

Efforts to tilt the tribal balance have weighed heavily in recent military realignments. Most recently in Aleppo and months before in nearby Manbij, shifts in clan alliances have facilitated the recapture of entire neighbourhoods previously held by Kurdish forces, illustrating the decisive role played by Jihad Issa al-Sheikh and his office in reshaping the balance of power on the ground. 

For the new regime, the stakes are primarily political and security-related. The eastern provinces provide most of the SDF's recruits while at the same time constituting a potential breeding ground for jihadist groups. To alienate them once more would be to repeat the mistakes that in the past pushed certain clans into the arms
 of the Assad regime, Kurdish forces or the Islamic State (IS) group. 

Reassuring the Sunni majority and healing the deep divides left by years of war is a matter of survival for the new Syrian authorities. Lasting stability can only come from internal dynamics, driven by Syrians themselves. In this context, the Office of Tribes and Clans holds a key place at the intersection of community tensions and the most sensitive security issues. The stated objective is not to marginalise the clans, but to integrate them as actors of stabilisation. 

The authorities are claiming a number of results since the office’s creation, including de-escalation in Homs, the management of protests in coastal areas home to many Alawites, and a gradual decline in assassinations targeting former members of the Assad regime. Despite the recent deadly clashes in Aleppo, the ability to prevent a major escalation in fighting over sensitive neighbourhoods previously held by Kurdish factions is also presented as concrete illustration of this new approach. 

This article was translated from the original in French.
xAI restricts Grok chatbot after sexualised AI images spark global concern


Elon Musk’s AI company xAI has imposed limits on its Grok chatbot’s image editing capabilities after hyper-realistic sexualised images – including depictions of minors – circulated online. The restrictions apply to all users, including paid subscribers, and block image generation in jurisdictions where such content is illegal.


Issued on: 15/01/2026 
By: FRANCE 24
xAI and Grok logos are seen in this illustration taken on February 16, 2025. © Dado Ruvic, Reuters

Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company xAI said late on Wednesday that it had imposed restrictions on all users of its Grok AI chatbot that limit image editing after the service produced sexualised images that sparked concerns among global regulators.

"We have implemented technological measures to prevent the Grok account from allowing the editing of images of real people in revealing clothing such as bikinis. This restriction applies to all users, including paid subscribers," the company said in an X post.

Hyper-realistic images of women manipulated to look like they were in microscopic bikinis, in degrading poses or covered in bruises began flooding social media platform X this month. In some cases, minors were digitally stripped down to swimwear, sparking broad criticism.

Grok last week began allowing only paying subscribers to use its image generation and editing features. X last week curtailed Grok's ability to generate or edit images publicly for many of its users, but the chatbot still privately produced sexually charged images on demand on Wednesday before xAI's announcement, Reuters found.

Billionaire Musk owns xAI, which in turn owns X, formerly known as Twitter.

xAI added on Wednesday that it blocks users based on their location from generating images of people in skimpy attire in "jurisdictions where it's illegal". It did not name those jurisdictions.
California officials demand answers

California's governor and attorney general said earlier on Wednesday that they were demanding answers from xAI after Musk said he was not aware of any "naked underage images" generated by Grok.

"We’re demanding immediate answers from xAI on their plan to stop the creation & spread of this content," California Attorney General Rob Bonta wrote on X. Governor Gavin Newsom called on Bonta "to immediately investigate the company and hold xAI accountable."

The comments from Newsom and Bonta were the most serious so far by US officials addressing the explosion of AI-generated non-consensual sexualised imagery on X.

The California move added to the pressure Musk is facing in the US and around the world. Lawmakers and advocacy groups have called for Apple and Google to drop Grok from app stores.

Government officials have threatened action in Europe and the United Kingdom. Indonesia temporarily blocked access to Grok.

At first, Musk publicly laughed off the controversy, posting humorous emojis in response to other users' comments about the influx of sexualised photos. More recently, X has said it treats reports of child sexual abuse material seriously and polices it vigorously.

Musk said earlier on Wednesday he was "not aware of any naked underage images generated by Grok. Literally zero."

X did not immediately respond to questions about the California announcement and Musk's comments.

xAI did not respond directly to an emailed request for comment on California officials' statements or Musk's post that he was unaware of sexualised imagery of minors. Reuters received its generic autoreply message for inquiries: "Legacy Media Lies."

(FRANCE 24 with Reuters)

Exclusive: 'International law has died' with Maduro's capture, Venezuela's attorney general says

Issued on: 14/01/2026 
Play (12:54 min)




In an exclusive interview with FRANCE 24, Venezuela's Attorney General Tarek William Saab condemned the January 3 capture of Nicolas Maduro by US special forces as "an unprecedented event" that violated the country's airspace and sovereignty. "International law has died at this time," he declared.

Venezuela's attorney general described the US operation in Caracas as "an invasion", noting that more than 100 people were killed in what he called a bid "to seize the natural resources" of Venezuela, "in violation of a country's airspace and in violation of its sovereignty".

When asked whether Donald Trump is effectively Venezuela's president, given his control over the situation in the country, Saab insisted that acting leader Delcy Rodriguez is the president of Venezuela.

Despite condemning Maduro's capture, Saab expressed openness to negotiations with Washington. "This is what I've been saying from the beginning. Peace, dialogue – this is what we need," he concluded.



Palestinian factions agree on membership of Gaza post-war governance committee, Egypt says


All 15 members of a Palestinian committee intended to administer post-war Gaza have been agreed upon by the parties included in the US-brokered ceasefire plan, Egypt's foreign ministry said on Wednesday. The US said the plan was ready to move into its second phase with the goal of disarming Hamas, rebuilding the devastated enclave and daily governance.


Issued on: 14/01/2026
By: FRANCE 24


A view of a displacement camp sheltering Palestinians amid stormy weather on a beach in Gaza City on January 13, 2026. © Jehad Alshrafi, AP

Egypt said Wednesday that all the members of a 15-person Palestinian technocratic committee meant to administer post-war Gaza had been agreed upon by all Palestinian factions, who swiftly offered their support.

Under a 20-point Gaza truce plan brokered by US President Donald Trump in October, the Palestinian territory would be governed by the committee operating under the supervision of a so-called "Board of Peace", to be chaired by Trump himself.

Meanwhile, Trump's envoy said Wednesday that the plan to end the Gaza war was now moving to Phase Two with a goal of disarming Hamas, despite a number of Israeli strikes during the ceasefire.

"We are announcing the launch of Phase Two of the President's 20-Point Plan to End the Gaza Conflict, moving from ceasefire to demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction," envoy Steve Witkoff wrote on X.

Phase Two "begins the full demilitarization and reconstruction of Gaza, primarily the disarmament of all unauthorized personnel."

"The US expects Hamas to comply fully with its obligations, including the immediate return of the final deceased hostage. Failure to do so will bring serious consequences," he said.

Hamas officials said earlier in the day that the group had opened talks with Egyptian mediators in Cairo on the committee.

"We hope that following this agreement, the committee will be announced soon... and will then be deployed to the Gaza Strip to manage daily life and essential services," Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said.

The majority of the Palestinian factions offered their support to the committee after Abdelatty's announcement.

In a statement, the factions including Hamas and Islamic Jihad said they had agreed "to support the mediators' efforts in forming the Palestinian National Transitional Committee to administer the Gaza Strip, while providing the appropriate environment" for it to begin its work.

The Ramallah-based Palestinian presidency also announced its support in official media, with a source from the office telling AFP the statement "reflects the position of the Fatah movement because President (Mahmud) Abbas is also the head of Fatah".

The Cairo meeting aimed to address the formation of the committee and its operational mechanisms, a senior Hamas official had previously told AFP on condition of anonymity.
Potential committee heads

Separately, the Hamas delegation was also to hold talks in Cairo with leaders of other Palestinian factions on "political, national and field developments" and the state of the Gaza ceasefire, the official added.

Hamas has repeatedly said it does not seek a role in any future governing authority in the Palestinian territory, and would limit its role to monitoring governance to ensure stability and facilitate reconstruction.

Talks with Egyptian mediators were also focused on the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, the reopening of the Rafah crossing, the entry of aid currently stockpiled on the Egyptian side of the border, and preparations for launching the second phase of the ceasefire plan, the official said.

Abdelatty did not name any of the agreed-upon committee members.

But two names circulating as potential heads were Ali Shaath, a former deputy minister of planning in the Palestinian Authority, and Majed Abu Ramadan, the current minister of health, the second official said.

The Trump proposed Board of Peace is expected to be led on the ground by Bulgarian diplomat and politician Nickolay Mladenov, who has recently held talks with Israeli and Palestinian officials.

Mladenov previously served as the United Nations envoy for the Middle East peace process from early 2015 until the end of 2020.

Media reports say Trump is expected to announce the members of the Board of Peace in the coming days, with the body set to include around 15 world leaders.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP)
How Greenland became a flashpoint in Arctic politics

DW
16/01/2026 


Donald Trump has renewed global focus on Greenland and the Arctic. Who controls this polar region, and why are power, security and resources at stake?

Greenland has been thrown into the global spotlight, with a recent election occurring against the backdrop of Trump's goal to acquire the territory 'one way or another'
Image: Evgeniy Maloletka/AP Photo/picture allianc

The Arctic Circle — and the sovereignty of its biggest island, Greenland — is back in the international geopolitical spotlight.

"We need Greenland for national security and even international security. And we’re working with everybody involved to try and get it," US President Donald Trump said in a speech to the US Congress on March 4.

"One way or the other, we’re going to get it."

Even on the campaign trail, Trump repeatedly called into question the sovereignty of two Arctic nations, Denmark and Canada. Not only does he want the US to acquire Greenland, a Danish territory — a prospect vocally opposed by Copenhagen and the territory's semiautonomous government — but he has also floated the idea of Canada becoming a US state.

And with tensions rising between other Arctic nations, particularly Russia, what used to be a cooperative relationship between countries in the region has fragmented.

Amid a scramble to shore up valuable resource reserves, are the Arctic's relatively peaceful days soon to be a thing of the past?

Frosty diplomatic relations

Eight nations lie in the Arctic Circle: the Arctic Five — Canada, Denmark (through Greenland and the Faroe Islands), Norway, Russia and the US — are the region's coastal states.

Finland, Sweden and Iceland have territory, but no significant shoreline.

None of these nations "owns" the Arctic. They exercise their territorial and economic rights in line with international law, as all countries do. The Arctic Five can exploit living and non-living natural resources in their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs): this includes fishing rights,oil and gas exploration and the ability to establish offshore renewable energy infrastructure.

These states also form the Arctic Council, an intergovernmental forum established in 1996 to foster cooperation between governments, Indigenous peoples and others living in the region. Other nations such as Germany, China and India have observer status.

The council has no regulatory powers, but is meant to serve as a platform for dialogue. Recent conflicts further south, however, particularly Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, have seen once-cooperative scientific and diplomatic relationships in the Arctic affected by the frayed relationships between Moscow and EU, as well as NATO members in the region.

'Great power competition'

Will Greaves, a political scientist at the University of Victoria, Canada, said these strained relations are the result of an "increase in great power competition."

"And something of a return to the bad old days of abandoning what was a very successful project of pan-Arctic cooperation that was established after the end of the Cold War," Greaves told DW.

Combined with its attacks on Ukraine, Greaves said Russia's increased military activity in the Arctic resulted in "the end, effectively, of military and defense cooperation between Russia and the other Arctic [states]."

In the summer of 2024, the Russian navy conducted naval exercises in the Arctic region
Image: SNA/IMAGO

Trump's stance on Greenland, Canada and a previous refusal to sign a 2019 council meeting communique mentioning climate change have also upset the balance between the Western bloc of Arctic nations.

Greaves argues there are now three geopolitical poles in the region: a Russia-dominated "Eurasian Arctic," a Nordic and Scandinavian "European Arctic" and the North American Arctic with an increasingly strained Canada, US and nearby Greenland.

The expert added that, although the Arctic's NATO states were effectively in lockstep opposition to Russia under the Biden administration, "the reality is that the Trump administration's own foreign policy behavior, combined with its climate denialism, makes it virtually impossible for there to be a kind of consensus [between the Trump administration and Western allies]."

The race for the Arctic is ramping up. Here's why  14:09

A region worth exploring?

In 2008, the US Geological Survey estimated that 22% of the world's undiscovered oil and gas reserves could be found north of the Arctic Circle.

There are also major deposits of critical minerals and metals located within each Arctic nation's territory, which they can extract. Greenland also has significant deposits, which will become easier to access due to climate-induced ice melt.

While Norway and Russia have been able to develop their Arctic offshore oil and gas, it may be harder — and therefore less lucrative — to drill into the ocean floor of the whole region.

"It's all very traditional industrialization off the Arctic, but geographically limited. It's not like an all-out boom everywhere, it's more targeted," said Malte Humpert, founder of the nonprofit think tank The Arctic Institute.

It's also more expensive. "We know there are some resources, but we also know that resource extraction in the Arctic is comparatively expensive," said Elana Wilson Rowe, an expert on Arctic governance at the Norwegian University of the Life Sciences.

China considers itself a near-Arctic state, if only to enhance its stake in the region. But despite some low-key investments in mining infrastructure in the region, a 2022 RAND report found the country had only limited success in extracting materials.

But China's Arctic ambitions could benefit in another way: trade. If climate change turns the Arctic summer ice-free, new shipping routes might open up directly through the North Pole. Russia and China would benefit most from such an environmental transformation, with a more direct path to send freight between their major ports that doesn't require hugging the Russian shoreline.

"No slowdown, no icebreaker, nothing," said Humpert. "Climate change is altering the map and creating winners and losers. There will be economic opportunity, but there will also be challenges for Indigenous people, for local populations that already live there."


Permafrost thaw could expose Arctic nations to severe economic, environmental and health risks
Image: MAXIM SHEMETOV/REUTERS

The climate is changing — environmentally and politically

Climate change is rapidly transforming the Arctic. Winter sea ice extent is at record lowest levels and some expect an ice-free summer could occur by 2050, given the continued rise of carbon dioxide emissions from human activity.

"There's certainly an awareness in all of the capitals of Arctic states about how climate change is transforming the Arctic region," said Wilson Rowe. "The retreat of sea ice is especially important and presents for coastal states some opportunities and threats."

Annual winter maximum sea ice in 2025 was around 1.4 million square kilometers (540 million square miles) less than the 30-year median value. That's an area of ice about the size of Mongolia that has failed to form.

While absent sea ice could open new trade routes, there are also major risks to human safety from ice loss and thawing permafrost on land. A recent study found climate-induced permafrost thaw across Russia, Europe and North America could lead to infrastructure failure, land-based transport and freight disruption, lower water quality, food security and greater exposure to disease and contaminants.

"All of these issues […] are happening against the backdrop of climate change in the Arctic that is decades and decades into this accelerated pace of warming at three to four times the global average," said Greaves. "It's causing a magnitude of ecological, social and economic impacts that are not well understood outside of the Arctic."

"Geopolitics is highly relevant," he said, "but it's also distracting from the longer term and, in many ways, far more grave implications of climate change."

Edited by: Maren Sass


Matthew Ward Agius DW Journalist reporting on Health, Science, Politics and Current Affairs

European military mission set to begin in Greenland


European military personnel were due to begin arriving in Greenland on Thursday, shortly after a meeting between American, Danish and Greenlandic officials in Washington failed to resolve "fundamental disagreement" over the mineral-rich, strategic Arctic island.


Issued on: 15/01/2026 - RFI

Danish military forces participate in an exercise with hundreds of troops from several European NATO members in the Arctic Ocean in Nuuk, Greenland, Monday, Sept. 15, 2025. AP - Ebrahim Noroozi

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly vowed to take control of the autonomous Danish territory, arguing that it is vital for US security.

France, Sweden, Germany and Norway announced Wednesday that they would deploy military personnel as part of a reconnaissance mission to Greenland's capital Nuuk."Soldiers of NATO are expected to be more present in Greenland from today and in the coming days. It is expected that there will be more military flights and ships," Greenland's deputy prime minister Mute Egede told a news conference on Wednesday, adding they would be "training".

"The first French military personnel are already on their way. Others will follow," French President Emmanuel Macron said on X.

The deployment of a 13-strong Bundeswehr reconnaissance team to Nuuk from Thursday was at Denmark's invitation, the German defence ministry said, adding it would run from Thursday to Sunday.

The deployment was announced on the same day that the foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland met with US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington.

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen and Greenlandic Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt speak to the media at the Danish Embassy on January 14, 2026 in Washington, DC. The two foreign ministers met with U.S. Vice President JD Vance and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss American interests in Greenland, after claims by U.S. President Donald Trump that Greenland must be acquired by the United States. Getty Images via AFP - ANDREW LEYDEN

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, speaking after leaving the White House, said a US takeover of Greenland was "absolutely not necessary."

"We didn't manage to change the American position. It's clear that the president has this wish of conquering over Greenland," Lokke told reporters.

"We therefore still have a fundamental disagreement, but we also agree to disagree."

Trump, speaking after the meeting which he did not attend, for the first time sounded conciliatory on Greenland, acknowledging Denmark's interests even if he again said he was not ruling out any options.

"I have a very good relationship with Denmark, and we'll see how it all works out. I think something will work out," Trump said without explaining further.

A map from the 27 January 1947 issue of Time Magazine, illustrating the strategic advantage to the US of acquiring Greenland. © Wikimedia Commons


He again said Denmark was powerless if Russia or China wanted to occupy Greenland, but added: "There's everything we can do."

Trump has appeared emboldened on Greenland after ordering a deadly January 3 attack in Venezuela that removed president Nicolas Maduro.

On the streets of Nuuk, red and white Greenlandic flags flew in shop windows, on apartment balconies, and on cars and buses, in a show of national unity this week.

Some residents described anxiety from finding themselves at the centre of the geopolitical spotlight.

"It's very frightening because it's such a big thing," said Vera Stidsen, 51, a teacher in Nuuk.

"I hope that in the future we can continue to live as we have until now: in peace and without being disturbed," Stidsen told AFP.

(With newswires)



Macron warns of 'cascading consequences' if US seizes Greenland

US threats to seize Greenland drew a warning from France on Wednesday, after leader Donald Trump renewed claims that Washington should take control of the Arctic island for security reasons. President Emmanuel Macron warned that any move affecting Greenland’s sovereignty would bring “unprecedented” consequences.


Issued on: 14/01/2026 - RFI

Danish navy vessel P572 Lauge Koch patrols the waters off the capital Nuuk, Greenland, in March 2025. AFP - ODD ANDERSEN

“If the sovereignty of a European ally were affected, the cascading consequences would be unprecedented,” Macron told a cabinet meeting, according to government spokeswoman Maud Bregeon.

“France is closely monitoring the situation and will act in full solidarity with Denmark and its sovereignty."

Macron’s comments came after US President Donald Trump said American control of Greenland was “vital” for a planned Golden Dome air and missile defence system.

Greenland is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark and has a population of about 57,000.

Security claims and NATO

“The United States needs Greenland for the purpose of National Security,” Trump wrote on social media. “It is vital for the Golden Dome that we are building,” he said.

Trump argued that NATO would be “far more formidable and effective” if Greenland were under US control, adding that “anything less than that is unacceptable”. He warned that if Washington did not act, “Russia or China will”.

The US president has repeatedly justified his position by pointing to increased Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic as ice melts due to climate change, although neither country claims Greenland.

Trump also said NATO “should be leading the way” in building the defence system.

His remarks came as Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen and his Greenlandic counterpart Vivian Motzfeldt were due to visit the White House for talks with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Rasmussen said he hoped to “clear up certain misunderstandings”.

Greenland rejects US control

Hours before the meeting, Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen told the French news agency AFP that Denmark was boosting its military presence in Greenland and discussing “an increased NATO presence in the Arctic” with allies.

Greenland’s leaders have firmly opposed Trump’s ambitions.

“One thing must be clear to everyone: Greenland does not want to be owned by the United States,” Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen said.

“Greenland does not want to be governed by the United States. Greenland does not want to be part of the United States."

The US already has the right to station troops on Greenland under an agreement with Denmark, but Trump has pushed for full ownership.

“We’re talking about acquiring not leasing,” he told reporters on Sunday.

(with newswires)


Danish official cites 'fundamental disagreement' with US over Greenland after White House meeting


Greenland and Denmark on Wednesday said they “agreed to disagree” with US diplomats after a “frank, constructive” discussion at the White House on US President Donald Trump’s desire to acquire the autonomous territory.


Issued on: 14/01/2026
By: FRANCE 24

Denmark's Foreign Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen and Greenland's Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt prepare at the Danish embassy for a meeting at the White House on January 14, 2026. © Mads Claus Rasmussen, Reuters

A top Danish official said Wednesday that a “fundamental disagreement” over Greenland remains with President Donald Trump after highly anticipated talks in Washington with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The two sides, however, agreed to create a working group to discuss ways to work through differences as Trump continues to call for a US takeover of the semiautonomous territory of NATO ally Denmark.

“The group, in our view, should focus on how to address the American security concerns, while at the same time respecting the red lines of the Kingdom of Denmark,” Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen told reporters after joining Greenland’s foreign minister, Vivian Motzfeldt, for the talks.

Trump is trying to make the case that NATO should help the US acquire the world's largest island and says anything less than it being under American control is unacceptable.


Denmark has announced plans to boost the country's military presence in the Arctic and North Atlantic as Trump tries to justify his calls for a US takeover of the vast territory by repeatedly claiming that China and Russia have their designs on Greenland.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment after the roughly hourlong meeting.

But a few hours before the officials sat down, Trump said on his social media site that the US “needs Greenland for the purpose of National Security”. He added that “NATO should be leading the way for us to get it” and that otherwise Russia or China would – “AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!”

“NATO becomes far more formidable and effective with Greenland in the hands of the UNITED STATES,” Trump wrote. “Anything less than that is unacceptable.”

Løkke Rasmussen told reporters that it remains “clear that the president has this wish of conquering over Greenland”.

“And we made it very, very clear that this is not in the interest of the kingdom,” he said after the meeting, citing a “fundamental disagreement” with the Trump administration but willing to keep talking.

In Copenhagen, Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen announced an increase in Denmark’s “military presence and exercise activity” in the Arctic and the North Atlantic, “in close cooperation with our allies”.

Poulsen said at a news conference the stepped-up military presence was necessary in a security environment in which “no one can predict what will happen tomorrow”.

“This means that from today and in the coming time there will be an increased military presence in and around Greenland of aircraft, ships and soldiers, including from other NATO allies,” Poulsen said.

Other NATO allies were arriving in Greenland along with Danish personnel, he said. Poulsen declined to name the other countries contributing to increased Arctic presence, saying that it is up to the allies to announce their own participation.

Earlier, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson wrote on X that “some officers from the Swedish Armed Forces are arriving in Greenland today” as part of a group from several allied countries. “Together, they will prepare events within the framework of the Danish exercise Operation Arctic Endurance,” Kristersson said. Two Norwegian military personnel also will be sent to Greenland to map out further cooperation with allies, the country’s Defense Minister Tore O. Sandvik told newspaper VG.

Greenland's prime minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, said Tuesday that "if we have to choose between the United States and Denmark here and now, we choose Denmark. We choose NATO. We choose the Kingdom of Denmark. We choose the EU.”

Asked about those comments, Trump replied: “I disagree with him. I don’t know who he is. I don’t know anything about him. But, that’s going to be a big problem for him.”

Greenland is strategically important because, as climate change causes the ice to melt, it opens up the possibility of shorter trade routes to Asia. That also could make it easier to extract and transport untapped deposits of critical minerals which are needed for computers and phones.

Trump says Greenland is also “vital” to the United States' Golden Dome missile defense program. He also has said he wants the island to expand America’s security and has repeatedly cited what he says is the threat from Russian and Chinese ships as a reason to control it.

But experts and Greenlanders question that claim.

“The only Chinese I see is when I go to the fast food market,” heating engineer Lars Vintner said. He said he frequently goes sailing and hunting and has never seen Russian or Chinese ships.

His friend, Hans Nørgaard, agreed, adding “what has come out of the mouth of Donald Trump about all these ships is just fantasy.”

Denmark has said the U.S, which already has a military presence, can boost its bases on Greenland. The US is party to a 1951 treaty that gives it broad rights to set up military bases there with the consent of Denmark and Greenland.

For that reason, “security is just a cover”, Vintner said, suggesting Trump actually wants to own the island to make money from its untapped natural resources.

Mikaelsen, the student, said Greenlanders benefit from being part of Denmark, which provides free health care, education and payments during study, and “I don’t want the US to take that away from us."

Løkke Rasmussen and Motzfeldt, along with Denmark’s ambassador to the US, planned to meet later Wednesday with senators from the Arctic Caucus. A bipartisan delegation of US lawmakers is also heading to Copenhagen this week to see Danish and Greenlandic officials.

(FRANCE 24 with AP)



Trump says US control of Greenland ‘vital’ for Golden Dome


US control of Greenland is "vital" for the country's planned Golden Dome air and missile defence system, President Donald Trump said in a social media post on Wednesday. Trump's post came as Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen sought to ease US concerns about security in Greenland, telling media that Denmark was boosting its military presence there.


Issued on: 14/01/2026
By:  FRANCE 24
Video by: Oliver FARRY

photo of President Donald Trump speaking in the White House Oval Office taken on May 20, 2025. © Alex Brandon, AP
02:06




US President Donald Trump insisted Wednesday the US needs to take control of Greenland, with NATO's support, just hours before crunch talks about the Arctic island with top Danish, Greenlandic and US officials.

Just hours before the meeting with US Vice President JD Vance was due to start, Trump said that US control of Greenland – an autonomous territory belonging to NATO ally Denmark – was "vital" for his planned Golden Dome air and missile defense system.

"NATO becomes far more formidable and effective with Greenland in the hands of the UNITED STATES. Anything less than that is unacceptable," he wrote on social media.

He said NATO "should be leading the way" in building the multi-layer missile defense system.

"IF WE DON'T, RUSSIA OR CHINA WILL, AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!" Trump wrote.

Just prior, Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen had sought to ease US concerns about security in Greenland, telling AFP Denmark was boosting its military presence there and was in talks with allies on "an increased NATO presence in the Arctic."

Trump has repeatedly threatened to take over the vast, strategic and sparsely populated Arctic island, and he has sounded emboldened since ordering a deadly January 3 attack in Venezuela that removed its president.

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen and his Greenlandic counterpart were to hold talks later Wednesday in Washington with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance.

Lokke said he was hoping to "clear up certain misunderstandings." But it remains to be seen if the Trump administration also sees a misunderstanding and if it wants to climb down.

Trump, when asked Tuesday about Greenland's leader saying that the island prefers to remain part of Denmark, said: "Well that's their problem."

"Don't know anything about him, but that's going to be a big problem for him," Trump said.

Trump said on Friday that he wanted Greenland "whether they like it or not" and "if we don't do it the easy way, we're going to do it the hard way."

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has warned that an attack on a NATO ally would end the alliance.

While an agreement with Denmark allows the United States to station as many soldiers as it wants on Greenland, Trump has doubled down on US ownership, telling reporters on Sunday that "we're talking about acquiring not leasing."

The former real estate developer told The New York Times that ownership "is psychologically needed for success" and "gives you things and elements that you can't get from just signing a document."

Trump maintains the United States needs Greenland due to the threat of a takeover by Russia or China.

The two rival powers have both stepped up activity in the Arctic, where ice is melting due to climate change, but neither claims Greenland, which is home to 57,000 people.
'Bad ally'?

Vance, who slammed Denmark as a "bad ally" during a visit to Greenland last year, is known for his hard edge, which was on display when he publicly berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a White House meeting in February.

It has not been announced if the Greenland meeting will be open to the press.

"If the US continues with, 'We have to have Greenland at all cost,' it could be a very short meeting," said Penny Naas, a senior vice president at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a Washington think tank.

"If there is a slight nuance to it, it could lead to a different conversation," she said.

Greenland's government and Denmark have been firmly against Trump's designs.

"One thing must be clear to everyone: Greenland does not want to be owned by the United States. Greenland does not want to be governed by the United States. Greenland does not want to be part of the United States," Greenland's Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen said ahead of the Washington talks.

The Danish prime minister said it had not been easy to stand up to "completely unacceptable pressure from our closest ally."

Copenhagen has rejected US claims that it is not protecting Greenland from Russia and China, pointing out that it has invested almost 90 billion kroner ($14 billion) to beef up its military presence in the Arctic.

Denmark is a founding member of NATO and its military joined the United States in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the latter to much criticism.

Shortly after the White House talks, a senior delegation from the US Congress – mostly Democrats, but with one Republican – will visit Copenhagen to offer solidarity.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP)




SPACE/COSMOS

Born In Brightness, Leading To Darkness


What we know of the birth of a black hole has traditionally aligned with our perception of black holes themselves: dark, mysterious, and eerily quiet, despite their mass and influence. Stellar-mass black holes are born from the final gravitational collapse of massive stars several tens of the mass of our Sun which, unlike less massive stars, do not produce bright, supernova explosions.

Or at least, this is what astronomers had previously thought, because no one had observed in real time the collapse of a massive star leading to a supernova and forming a black hole. That is, until a team of researchers at Kyoto University reported their observations of SN 2022esa.

The Kyoto team had wondered whether all massive stars — those that are at least 30 times the mass of the Sun — die quietly without a supernova explosion, or if in some cases they are accompanied by an energetic and bright, special type of supernova explosion. The astronomers then discovered a type Ic-CSM class supernova that appeared to be an explosion of a Wolf-Rayet star, which are so incomprehensibly massive and luminous that astronomers believe them to be the progenitors of black hole formation.

To investigate the nature of this peculiar supernova, the research team utilized both the Seimei telescope in Okayama and the Subaru telescope in Hawaii. The team was able to observe and classify SN 2022esa as an Ic-CSM type supernova, demonstrating that the birth of a black hole is not necessarily quiet since this one could be observed with electro-magnetic signals.

They also discovered something else: the supernova shows a clear and stable period of about a month in its light-curve evolution, leading the team to conclude that it had been created by stable periodic eruptions of the star system once each year before the explosion. Such stable periodicity is only possible in a binary system, so the progenitor must have been a Wolf-Rayet star forming a binary with another massive star, or even a black hole. The fate of such a system, they determined, must be a twin of black holes.

“The fates of massive stars, the birth of a black hole, or even a black hole binary, are very important questions in astronomy,” says first author Keiichi Maeda. “Our study provides a new direction to understand the whole evolutional history of massive stars toward the formation of black hole binaries.”

This study also demonstrates the benefits of using two different telescopes that possess different observational properties. In this case, Seimei’s flexibility and promptness combined with Subaru’s high sensitivity proved to be an effective combination. The team plans to continue conducting research utilizing both telescopes in the coming years.

“We expect many interesting discoveries on the nature of astronomical transients and explosions like supernova,” says Maeda.

Naturally Occurring ‘Space Weather Station’ Elucidates New Way To Study Habitability Of Planets Orbiting M Dwarf Stars

Artist's rendition of the space weather around M dwarf TIC 141146667. The torus of ionized gas is sculpted by the star's magnetic field and rotation, with two pinched, dense clumps present on opposing sides of the star. CREDIT: llustration by Navid Marvi, courtesy Carnegie Science.

January 11, 2026
By Eurasia Review

How does a star affect the makeup of its planets? And what does this mean for the habitability of distant worlds? Carnegie’s Luke Bouma is exploring a new way to probe this critical question—using naturally occurring space weather stations that orbit at least 10 percent of M dwarf stars during their early lives. He is presenting his work at the American Astronomical Society meeting this week.

We know that most M dwarf stars—which are smaller, cooler, and dimmer than our own Sun—host at least one Earth-sized rocky planet. Most of them are inhospitable—too hot for liquid water or atmospheres, or hit with frequent stellar flares and intense radiation. But they could still prove to be interesting laboratories for understanding the many ways that stars shape the surroundings in which their planets exist.

“Stars influence their planets. That’s obvious. They do so both through light, which we’re great at observing, and through particles—or space weather—like solar winds and magnetic storms, which are more challenging to study at great distances,” Bouma explained. “And that’s very frustrating, because we know in our own Solar System that particles can sometimes be more important for what happens to planets.”

But astronomers can’t set up a space weather station around a distant star.

Or can they?

Working with Moira Jardine of the University of St. Andrews, Bouma homed in on a strange type of M dwarf called a complex periodic variable. They are young, rapidly rotating stars that observations show experience recurring dips in brightness. Astronomers weren’t sure if these dips in brightness were caused by starspots or by material orbiting the star.

“For a long time, no one knew quite what to make of these oddball little blips of dimming,” Bouma said. “But we were able to demonstrate that they can tell us something about the environment right above the star’s surface.”

Bouma and Jardine answered that question by creating “spectroscopic movies” of one of these complex periodic variable stars. They were able to demonstrate that they are large clumps of cool plasma that are trapped in the star’s magnetosphere—basically being dragged around with the star by its magnetic field—forming a kind of doughnut shape called a torus.

“Once we understood this, the blips in dimming stopped being weird little mysteries and became a space weather station,” Bouma exclaimed. “The plasma torus gives us a way to know what’s happening to the material near these stars, including where it’s concentrated, how it’s moving, and how strongly it is influenced by the star’s magnetic field.”

Bouma and Jardine estimate that at least 10 percent of M dwarfs could have plasma features like this early in their lives. So, these space weather stations could help astronomers learn a great deal about particles from stars contribute to planetary conditions.

Next, Bouma hopes to reveal where the material in the torus comes from—the star itself or an external source.

“This is a great example of a serendipitous discovery, something we didn’t expect to find but that will give us a new window into understanding planet-star relationships,” Bouma concluded. “We don’t know yet if any planets orbiting M dwarfs are hospitable to life, but I feel confident that space weather is going to be an important part of answering that question.”

Uganda votes under internet blackout and police crackdown

Uganda was on edge as polls opened on Thursday, with President Yoweri Museveni expected to extend his 40-year rule amid an internet shutdown and a police crackdown on the opposition.


Issued on: 15/01/2026 - RFI

A woman uses a mobile phone as she walks past campaign posters of Yoweri Museveni, Uganda's President and presidential candidate of the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM), ahead of the general election in Kampala, Uganda, January 14, 2026. © Thomas Mukoya / REUTERS


Polling stations were slow to open, as normal in Uganda, but voting was underway shortly after 7am local time in at least one Kampala suburb.

But in several parts of Uganda stations were still not open almost two hours after voting was due to start, AFP journalists and local sources said Thursday.

AFP reporters in several parts of the capital Kampala and the border city of Jinja said voting had yet to begin, with reports that ballot papers had not been delivered and biometric machines used to check voters' identities were not working.

There were heavy police and army patrols in the border town of Jinja, another AFP team said.

Meanwhile, despite repeated promises that it would not do so, the government shut down the internet on Tuesday for an indefinite period to prevent the spread of "misinformation" and "incitement to violence".

The United Nations called the shutdown "deeply worrying".
'I will crush them'

Western countries have often given Museveni leeway, after he swallowed their demands for neoliberal reforms in the 1980s and made himself a useful partner in the US-led "war on terror" in the 2000s, especially through troop contributions to Somalia.

Many Ugandans still praise him as the man who ended the country's post-independence chaos and oversaw rapid economic growth, even if much was lost to a relentless string of massive corruption scandals.

"Forty years doesn't even matter, we need even more," said one supporter, Banura Oliver, 41, on her way to Museveni's final rally in Kampala.

The president struck a forceful tone, saying: "Go and vote. Anybody who wants to interfere with your freedom, I will crush them."

Many in Kampala were nervous as security forces beefed up their presence for election day.

"We will not talk about elections. You can ask anything but not that," said an accountant in his thirties, who did not give his name.

The police warned the vote was "not a justification for criminal acts" and has deployed newly hired "special constables" to enforce order.

Journalists were harassed and blocked from attending Museveni's rally.

Reporters Without Borders said local journalist Ssematimba Bwegiire lost consciousness after being electrocuted and pepper-sprayed by a security officer at a Wine rally.

Human Rights Watch has denounced the suspension of 10 NGOs, including election-monitoring organisations, and said the opposition had faced "brutal repression".

(With newswires)


'He represents a population desperate for change’, Bobi Wine’s lawyer tells RFI

Uganda's election on Thursday will see incumbent Yoweri Museveni, in power since 1986, seeking a seventh mandate – at the age of 81, in a country where 55 percent of the population is under 20. Supporters of his main rival, Bobi Wine, say he embodies hope for change. Robert Amsterdam, Wine's international legal representative, told RFI of the difficulties he has faced in a campaign fraught with fear and repression.


Issued on: 14/01/2026 - RFI

Presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi, known as Bobi Wine, addresses the crowd at a rally ahead of the election, Kampala, 12 January. REUTERS - Abubaker Lubowa

By: Melissa Chemam

RFI: For the opposition, and in particular for Bobi Wine, this electoral campaign has been very difficult. How would you describe it?

Robert Amsterdam: Let's be really clear: this is a man who faces death each day. I was first brought in years ago as his lawyer when Museveni tried to kill Bobi by shooting into his car. Bobi was then brutally tortured and held in jail, in a town called Arua, Uganda.

And from that time, Bobi's life has been in danger. And, unlike many, he did not flee his country. He has stood his ground, fighting for Ugandans every day. He is representative of a population that is overwhelmingly under the age of 18 and desperate for change. He is the symbol of change, of youth, not only in Uganda but in Africa. He is an important and emblematic symbol of the fight of this generation to be heard, and for the dinosaurs of previous generations to step out of the way.

The world should start being run by people who have to live in its future, not by those who created a pretty horrendous past in Uganda.

Bobi Wine's fight for democracy in Uganda continues on the big screen

Many human rights organisations have criticised the repression and brutality they say has been seen during this electoral campaign. In light of this, how do you expect the election itself will go?

Of course, it's going to impact the vote. The authorities have cut off the internet. They've divided Kampala into 14 military districts. There's a massive, unprecedented mobilisation of the military. It's absurd and obscene.

I've already had calls from people within the government, who are highly confident of the outcome and are already reaching out to me because they're worried about what the response will be if there is another stolen election. So the government is gearing up to steal another election and deprive Uganda of its vote.

Uganda orders internet blackout ahead of presidential elections

Are there legal mechanisms in place that could ensure Ugandan voters get the result they deserve?

I also represent the opposition in Tanzania, where thousands [of people] were brutally murdered in another stolen election in this part of Africa. So I would be lying if I expressed great confidence in the [possibility of removing] a military dictator.

But at the same time, before a vote, however jaded it may be, I'm not going to make these comments. I'm going to pray for Bobi's safety and for the safety of those with the courage to vote for him and against Museveni and his dynasty. Because he's going to try to put his son in after he's finished.

Do you think Ugandans can see a future where politicians like Wine can emerge? In Uganda and beyond?

He's an inspirational figure, as is Tundu Lissu in Tanzania, who's now in solitary confinement, after being shot 16 times in a prior election. I think these martyrs – and Bobi Wine is a martyr, having suffered through torture and false imprisonment – are heroes of real democracy, not failed leaders and tired policies. These are men of vision who are trying to bring their people out of desperate circumstances.

Uganda police surround opposition leader's party HQ ahead of protests

What is your advice for those parties who may have to wait months, if not years, to be able to represent their voters?

The first thing we have to do is condemn the African Union for living in the past, for making corrupt pacts with unqualified autocrats. We need somewhere in Africa to have a moral stance, and the African Union needs to be a light – not a dim reminder of the past.

And we have great political figures in parts of Africa who are doing their best. Some of them I've come to know through a life in Africa. I'm privileged to act for the Democratic Republic of Congo. And there's just a tremendous amount of inequality and despair that we need to turn around. And all of us who have invested parts of our lives in Africa, we need to not let another Ugandan election be stolen. We need to raise our voices.

Bobi Wine has promised there will be protests if the election is stolen. But can we be confident that people are going to be safe if that's the case?

Absolutely not. There's no confidence. You have a military that's corrupt and out of control. People have every legitimate right to fear for their lives, in a country that has no claim to democracy and no claim to rule of law when it comes to elections.

After 40 years of the same ruler, is change possible in Uganda?

I will never bet against a popular vote, no matter how hijacked I fear an election can be. So let's wait and see. My hopes and prayers are with the people of Uganda in this fateful 48 hours.