Exxon scientists predicted current climate change 40 years ago: study
Saul Elbein
Thu, January 12, 2023
Saul Elbein
Thu, January 12, 2023
Scientists at oil giant ExxonMobil accurately forecast present-day climate change going back to the late 1970s and early 1980s, a new study has found.
The findings by Harvard and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research are “the nail-in-the-coffin of ExxonMobil’s claims that it has been falsely accused of climate malfeasance,” lead author Geoffrey Supran, a research associate at Harvard, asserted in a statement.
The majority of the company’s internal climate predictions prepared during that period — between 63 and 83 percent of Exxon’s files — have closely matched actual global warming, according to the paper set to be published on Thursday in Environmental Research Letters.
“We find that most of their projections accurately forecast warming consistent with subsequent observations,” the report states. “Their projections were also consistent with, and at least as skillful as, those of independent academic and government models.”
The research assesses 32 internal documents produced by ExxonMobil scientists between 1977 and 2002, as well as 72 peer-reviewed scientific publications authored or co-authored by ExxonMobil scientists between 1982 and 2014.
In some cases, that research was better quality than far more influential studies by government scientists, according to the Harvard and Potsdam researchers’ analyses of Exxon’s predictive “skill scores,” or how their predictions matched what actually happened.
For example, when NASA scientist James Hansen presented his global warming predictions to Congress in 1988 — helping launch the modern climate movement — his studies matched subsequent warming by up to 66 percent, according to the Harvard and Potsdam researchers.
At the same time, Exxon scientists were producing climate research with an average skill score of 75 percent, the study found.
In the 1990s, the oil giant turned away from funding climate science and pivoted to a campaign raising broad-based doubt over the quality of those findings.
“Let’s face it: The science of climate change is too uncertain to mandate a plan of action that could plunge economies into turmoil,” stated one Exxon ad, addressing proposals in the late 1990s for the U.S. to join the Kyoto Protocols, a climate accord the country nearly joined more than 15 years before the pivotal 2015 Paris climate agreement.
“Scientists cannot predict with certainty if temperatures will increase, by how much and where changes will occur,” Exxon copywriters claimed.
In a statement to The Hill, Exxon spokesperson Todd Spitler sought to cast the report as part of a broader ginned-up campaign by the companies’ critics to portray “well intended, internal policy debates as an attempted company disinformation campaign.”
“This issue has come up several times in recent years and, in each case, our answer is the same: those who talk about how ‘Exxon Knew’ are wrong in their conclusions,” Spitler said. “ExxonMobil is committed to being part of the solution to climate change and the risks it poses.”
“Exxon Knew” is an activist campaign that accuses the company of spending millions to cast doubt on scientific findings that its principal products — oil and gas — would lead to potentially dangerous levels of warming.
“Just as Big Tobacco lied about the risks of addiction and cancer, Exxon orchestrated a campaign of doubt and deception, making hundreds of billions at the cost of people’s lives,” the campaigners wrote.
Exxon has repeatedly pushed back on the efforts, calling it “an orchestrated campaign” from activist organizations “that seeks to delegitimize ExxonMobil by misrepresenting our position on climate change and related research to the public.”
Exxon spokespeople now charge that allegations the company misled the public are ignoring that there was scientific dispute within the company — even if a broad majority of company scientists turned out data supporting the role of fossil fuel burning in climate change.
“Currently, the scientific evidence is inconclusive as to whether human activities are having a significant effect on the global climate,” Then-Exxon CEO Lee Raymond told the Economic Club of Detroit in 1996, according to Inside Climate News.
The following year, he said in a speech that “many people, politicians and the public alike, believe that global warming is a rock-solid certainty. But it’s not.”
In 1998 Exxon highlighted those uncertainties as part of a campaign that helped keep the U.S. out of the Kyoto Protocols, which would have committed the country to reduce carbon emissions, as PBS reported.
The Harvard study comes as part of a larger debate over Exxon’s role in contributing to historical climate change, which is itself a subset of an ever more significant dispute over the role of planet-heating fossil fuels in a rapidly warming world.
The U.S. oil industry currently faces at least 20 lawsuits by U.S. cities and towns that say it should help pay for ongoing climate damage and adaptation, PBS reported.
Exxon has sought to cast itself as an enthusiastic partner in the campaign to keep global temperatures from rising below dangerous levels. The company “is committed to being part of the solution to climate change and the risks it poses,” Spitler told The Hill.
As such, the company has announced a wide range of policies that it says are helping it to “support a net zero future.”
The company recently touted its plans to spend $17 billion on “lower-emission initiatives” through 2027, and highlighted cuts to its methane emissions of 40 percent and nearly 10 percent cuts in the carbon intensity of its operations.
It hopes to carve out a future for the fossil fuel industry through carbon capture technology, which it claims will drop the carbon cost of the industry, as CNBC reported.
But while the company is cutting the carbon cost of each barrel of oil it produces, it is also fighting Securities and Exchange Commission climate reporting rules that could see it forced to account for the carbon released when customers burn its oil and gas — rather than just when the company produces it.
Critics maintain that these investments do not change the fact that the company’s primary products remain centered around fossil fuel.
“ExxonMobil accurately foresaw the threat of human-caused global warming, both prior and parallel to orchestrating lobbying and propaganda campaigns to delay climate action,” the Harvard authors wrote.
Study: Exxon Mobil accurately predicted warming since 1970s
The Exxon Mobil Baton Rouge Refinery complex is visible with the Louisiana State Capitol, bottom right, in Baton Rouge, La., Monday, April 11, 2022. Exxon Mobil’s scientists were remarkably accurate in their predictions about global warming, even as the company made public statements that contradicted its own scientists' conclusions, a new study says. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
The Exxon Mobil Baton Rouge Refinery complex is visible with the Louisiana State Capitol, bottom right, in Baton Rouge, La., Monday, April 11, 2022. Exxon Mobil’s scientists were remarkably accurate in their predictions about global warming, even as the company made public statements that contradicted its own scientists' conclusions, a new study says. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
ASSOCIATED PRESS
SETH BORENSTEIN and CATHY BUSSEWITZ
Thu, January 12, 2023
DENVER (AP) — Exxon Mobil’s scientists were remarkably accurate in their predictions about global warming, even as the company made public statements that contradicted its own scientists' conclusions, a new study says.
The study in the journal Science Thursday looked at research that Exxon funded that didn’t just confirm what climate scientists were saying, but used more than a dozen different computer models that forecast the coming warming with precision equal to or better than government and academic scientists.
This was during the same time that the oil giant publicly doubted that warming was real and dismissed climate models’ accuracy. Exxon said its understanding of climate change evolved over the years and that critics are misunderstanding its earlier research.
Scientists, governments, activists and news sites, including Inside Climate News and the Los Angeles Times, several years ago reported that “Exxon knew” about the science of climate change since about 1977 all while publicly casting doubt. What the new study does is detail how accurate Exxon funded research was. From 63% to 83% of those projections fit strict standards for accuracy and generally predicted correctly that the globe would warm about .36 degrees (.2 degrees Celsius) a decade.
The Exxon-funded science was “actually astonishing” in its precision and accuracy, said study co-author Naomi Oreskes, a Harvard science history professor. But she added so was the “hypocrisy because so much of the Exxon Mobil disinformation for so many years ... was the claim that climate models weren’t reliable.”
Study lead author Geoffrey Supran, who started the work at Harvard and now is a environmental science professor at the University of Miami, said this is different than what was previously found in documents about the oil company.
“We’ve dug into not just to the language, the rhetoric in these documents, but also the data. And I’d say in that sense, our analysis really seals the deal on ‘Exxon knew’,” Supran said. It “gives us airtight evidence that Exxon Mobil accurately predicted global warming years before, then turned around and attacked the science underlying it.”
The paper quoted then-Exxon CEO Lee Raymond in 1999 as saying future climate “projections are based on completely unproven climate models, or more often, sheer speculation," while his successor in 2013 called models “not competent."
Exxon’s understanding of climate science developed along with the broader scientific community, and its four decades of research in climate science resulted in more than 150 papers, including 50 peer-reviewed publications, said company spokesman Todd Spitler.
“This issue has come up several times in recent years and, in each case, our answer is the same: those who talk about how ‘Exxon Knew’ are wrong in their conclusions,” Spitler said in an emailed statement. “Some have sought to misrepresent facts and Exxon Mobil’s position on climate science, and its support for effective policy solutions, by recasting well intended, internal policy debates as an attempted company disinformation campaign.”
Exxon, one of the world’s largest oil and gas companies, has been the target of numerous lawsuits that claim the company knew about the damage its oil and gas would cause to the climate, but misled the public by sowing doubt about climate change. In the latest such lawsuit, New Jersey accused five oil and gas companies including Exxon of deceiving the public for decades while knowing about the harmful toll fossil fuels take on the climate.
Similar lawsuits from New York to California have claimed that Exxon and other oil and gas companies launched public relations campaigns to stir doubts about climate change. In one, then-Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey said Exxon’s public relations efforts were “ reminiscent of the tobacco industry’s long denial campaign about the dangerous effects of cigarettes.”
Oreskes acknowledged in the study that she has been a paid consultant in the past for a law firm suing Exxon, while Supran has gotten a grant from the Rockefeller Family Foundation, which has also helped fund groups that were suing Exxon. The Associated Press receives some foundation support from Rockefeller and maintains full control of editorial content.
Oil giants including Exxon and Shell were accused in congressional hearings in 2021 of spreading misinformation about climate, but executives from the companies denied the accusations.
University of Illinois atmospheric scientist professor emeritus Donald Wuebbles told The Associated Press that in the 1980s he worked with Exxon-funded scientists and wasn’t surprised by what the company knew or the models. It’s what science and people who examined the issue knew.
“It was clear that Exxon Mobil knew what was going on,’’ Wuebbles said. “The problem is at the same time they were paying people to put out misinformation. That’s the big issue.”
There's a difference between the “hype and spin” that companies do to get you to buy a product or politicians do to get your vote and an “outright lie ... misrepresenting factual information and that's what Exxon did,” Oreskes said.
Several outside scientists and activists said what the study showed about Exxon actions is serious.
“The harm caused by Exxon has been huge,” said University of Michigan environment dean Jonathan Overpeck. “They knew that fossil fuels, including oil and natural gas, would greatly alter the planet’s climate in ways that would be costly in terms of lives, human suffering and economic impacts. And yet, despite this understanding they choose to publicly downplay the problem of climate change and the dangers it poses to people and the planet.”
Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald asked: “How many thousands (or more) of lives have been lost or adversely impacted by Exxon Mobil’s deliberate campaign to obscure the science?”
Critics say Exxon’s past actions on climate change undermine its claims that it’s committed to reducing emissions.
After tracking Exxon's and hundreds of other companies' corporate lobbying on climate change policies, InfluenceMap, a firm that analyzes data on how companies are impacting the climate crisis, concluded that Exxon is lobbying overall in opposition to the goals of the Paris Agreement and that it's currently among the most negative and influential corporations holding back climate policy.
“All the research we have suggests that effort to thwart climate action continues to this day, prioritizing the oil and gas industry value chain from the “potentially existential” threat of climate change, rather than the other way around,” said Faye Holder, program manager for InfluenceMap.
“The messages of denial and delay may look different, but the intention is the same.”
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Bussewitz reported from New York.
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Follow AP’s climate and environment coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment
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Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at @borenbears and Cathy Bussewitz at @cbussewitz
Exxon Mobil publicly denied global warming for years but quietly predicted it
Tony Briscoe
Thu, January 12, 2023
Environmental activists rallied outside the New York Supreme Court building in October 2019 in New York City while inside New York's attorney general was taking on Exxon Mobil in a case that accused the oil giant of misleading investors about the company's financial risks due to climate change. (Drew Angerer / Getty Images)
In perhaps one of the most cynically ironic twists in the field of climate science, new research suggests Exxon Mobil Corp. may have had keener insight into the impending dangers of global warming than even NASA scientists but still waged a decades-long campaign to discredit research into climate change and its connection to the burning of fossil fuels.
Despite its public denials, the major oil corporation worked behind closed doors to carry out an astonishingly accurate series of global warming projections between 1977 and 2003, according to a study published Thursday in Science.
“Exxon didn't just know some climate science, they actually helped advance it,” said Geoffrey Supran, lead author of the study and former researcher in the department of the history of science at Harvard University. “They didn't just vaguely know something about global warming decades ago, they knew as much as independent academics and government scientists did. And arguably, they knew all they needed to know.”
In a review of archived documents and memos, researchers found that scientists for then-Exxon had completed a set of 16 models that predicted global temperatures would rise, on average, about 0.36 degrees Fahrenheit (0.2 degrees Celsius) per decade. Since 1981, Earth’s global average temperature has risen about 0.32 degrees (0.18 Celsius) per decade, according to NASA.
Researchers at Harvard and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research found most of the Exxon Mobil projections are consistent with subsequent global temperature observations, according to the study. Many of the Exxon projections proved to be more precise than those by James Hansen, then-director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who famously testified before U.S. Senate in 1988 about the "greenhouse effect."
The analysis adds to a growing body of evidence that the nation’s largest oil producer recognized burning fossil fuels was warming the Earth, even as it continued to heap doubt onto that notion publicly. The paper also shows, for the first time, just how precise and sophisticated the fossil fuel industry's own climate research was.
In response to the study, Exxon Mobil spokesperson Todd Spitler said the company’s understanding of climate science has evolved along with that of the broader scientific community. The energy company, he said, is now actively engaged on several efforts to mitigate global warming.
“This issue has come up several times in recent years and, in each case, our answer is the same: those who suggest ‘we knew’ are wrong,” Spitler said in a statement. “Some have sought to misrepresent facts and Exxon Mobil’s position on climate science, and its support for effective policy solutions, by recasting well intended, internal policy debates as an attempted company disinformation campaign.”
The Harvard-led study builds previous academic research, in addition to investigative reporting by InsideClimate News and the Los Angeles Times, that uncovered a tranche of internal company memos demonstrating Exxon officials knew burning fossil fuels would lead to global warming since the late 1970s.
Exxon was once a pioneer in the arena of climate research in the early 1980s. But its public stance on global warming changed sharply by 1990.
In one internal draft memo from August 1988 titled “The Greenhouse Effect,” a public relations manager detailed the scientific consensus about the role of fossil fuels in global warming but wrote that the company should “Emphasize the uncertainty.” An archived presentation in 1989 from Exxon’s manager of science and strategy development said:
Tony Briscoe
Thu, January 12, 2023
Environmental activists rallied outside the New York Supreme Court building in October 2019 in New York City while inside New York's attorney general was taking on Exxon Mobil in a case that accused the oil giant of misleading investors about the company's financial risks due to climate change. (Drew Angerer / Getty Images)
In perhaps one of the most cynically ironic twists in the field of climate science, new research suggests Exxon Mobil Corp. may have had keener insight into the impending dangers of global warming than even NASA scientists but still waged a decades-long campaign to discredit research into climate change and its connection to the burning of fossil fuels.
Despite its public denials, the major oil corporation worked behind closed doors to carry out an astonishingly accurate series of global warming projections between 1977 and 2003, according to a study published Thursday in Science.
“Exxon didn't just know some climate science, they actually helped advance it,” said Geoffrey Supran, lead author of the study and former researcher in the department of the history of science at Harvard University. “They didn't just vaguely know something about global warming decades ago, they knew as much as independent academics and government scientists did. And arguably, they knew all they needed to know.”
In a review of archived documents and memos, researchers found that scientists for then-Exxon had completed a set of 16 models that predicted global temperatures would rise, on average, about 0.36 degrees Fahrenheit (0.2 degrees Celsius) per decade. Since 1981, Earth’s global average temperature has risen about 0.32 degrees (0.18 Celsius) per decade, according to NASA.
Researchers at Harvard and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research found most of the Exxon Mobil projections are consistent with subsequent global temperature observations, according to the study. Many of the Exxon projections proved to be more precise than those by James Hansen, then-director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who famously testified before U.S. Senate in 1988 about the "greenhouse effect."
The analysis adds to a growing body of evidence that the nation’s largest oil producer recognized burning fossil fuels was warming the Earth, even as it continued to heap doubt onto that notion publicly. The paper also shows, for the first time, just how precise and sophisticated the fossil fuel industry's own climate research was.
In response to the study, Exxon Mobil spokesperson Todd Spitler said the company’s understanding of climate science has evolved along with that of the broader scientific community. The energy company, he said, is now actively engaged on several efforts to mitigate global warming.
“This issue has come up several times in recent years and, in each case, our answer is the same: those who suggest ‘we knew’ are wrong,” Spitler said in a statement. “Some have sought to misrepresent facts and Exxon Mobil’s position on climate science, and its support for effective policy solutions, by recasting well intended, internal policy debates as an attempted company disinformation campaign.”
The Harvard-led study builds previous academic research, in addition to investigative reporting by InsideClimate News and the Los Angeles Times, that uncovered a tranche of internal company memos demonstrating Exxon officials knew burning fossil fuels would lead to global warming since the late 1970s.
Exxon was once a pioneer in the arena of climate research in the early 1980s. But its public stance on global warming changed sharply by 1990.
In one internal draft memo from August 1988 titled “The Greenhouse Effect,” a public relations manager detailed the scientific consensus about the role of fossil fuels in global warming but wrote that the company should “Emphasize the uncertainty.” An archived presentation in 1989 from Exxon’s manager of science and strategy development said:
“Data confirm that greenhouse gases are increasing in the atmosphere. Fossil fuels contribute most of the CO2.”
In 1999 — the year Exxon and Mobil merged — company Chief Executive Lee Raymond, however, said future climate “projections are based on completely unproven climate models, or, more often, sheer speculation.”
In 2015, Raymond’s successor, Rex Tillerson, who later served as secretary of State under President Trump, also questioned climate projections involving the amount of carbon dioxide gas in the atmosphere.
“We do not really know what the climate effects of 600 parts per million versus 450 parts per million will be because the models simply are not that good,” Tillerson said.
As Exxon Mobil CEO, Rex Tillerson, shown in 2014, questioned climate projections involving the amount of carbon dioxide gas in the atmosphere. (LM Otero / Associated Press)
Years earlier, however, Exxon's own modeling from 1982 suggested that 600 ppm of CO2 would lead to 2.3 degrees (1.3 Celsius) more global warming than 450 ppm.
The analysis also found that Exxon scientists had projected that global warming would first become detectable at the turn 21st century. The Exxon scientists concluded this warming trend would render the Earth hotter than at any time in at least 150,000 years, debunking unfounded theories of “global cooling” and a forthcoming ice age.
Despite such findings by their own scientists, company officials poured millions of dollars into a public relations campaign to cast doubt on the science behind climate change. That campaign included prominent ads in the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times.
“They were right on the money in terms of rejecting a possible ice age, accurately predicting when warming would first be detectable, estimating the carbon budget for 2 degrees — and then, in all of those points, the company’s subsequent public statements contradicted its own data,” said Supran, now an associate professor of environmental science and policy at the University of Miami.
It wasn't until 2007 that Exxon Mobil publicly conceded that climate change was occurring, and was largely driven by the burning of fossil fuels and proliferation of heat-trapping CO2.
Before the Industrial Revolution, CO2 levels were consistently around 280 ppm for almost 6,000 years of human civilization, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Since then, humans released an estimated 1.5 trillion tons of carbon emissions through the burning of fossil fuels -- including gas, coal and methane.
In 2022 — which NOAA now ranks as the sixth-warmest year on record — CO2 levels reached 420 parts per million in November, a mark the planet hasn’t seen in millions of years.
Nine of the last 10 years have been the warmest since 1880, according to NOAA. These rising temperatures are fueling extreme weather events worldwide, and California and the Western U.S. have been on the frontlines in recent years.
Despite a recent barrage of deadly storms that have hit California since the beginning of the year, the American Southwest is still braving one of its driest stretches in 1,200 years. California is also still recovering from a record-setting wildfire season in 2020, during which 4.3 million acres were scorched statewide. And as Arctic ice continues to melt, sea level rise threatens to exacerbate coastal erosion.
In 1999 — the year Exxon and Mobil merged — company Chief Executive Lee Raymond, however, said future climate “projections are based on completely unproven climate models, or, more often, sheer speculation.”
In 2015, Raymond’s successor, Rex Tillerson, who later served as secretary of State under President Trump, also questioned climate projections involving the amount of carbon dioxide gas in the atmosphere.
“We do not really know what the climate effects of 600 parts per million versus 450 parts per million will be because the models simply are not that good,” Tillerson said.
As Exxon Mobil CEO, Rex Tillerson, shown in 2014, questioned climate projections involving the amount of carbon dioxide gas in the atmosphere. (LM Otero / Associated Press)
Years earlier, however, Exxon's own modeling from 1982 suggested that 600 ppm of CO2 would lead to 2.3 degrees (1.3 Celsius) more global warming than 450 ppm.
The analysis also found that Exxon scientists had projected that global warming would first become detectable at the turn 21st century. The Exxon scientists concluded this warming trend would render the Earth hotter than at any time in at least 150,000 years, debunking unfounded theories of “global cooling” and a forthcoming ice age.
Despite such findings by their own scientists, company officials poured millions of dollars into a public relations campaign to cast doubt on the science behind climate change. That campaign included prominent ads in the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times.
“They were right on the money in terms of rejecting a possible ice age, accurately predicting when warming would first be detectable, estimating the carbon budget for 2 degrees — and then, in all of those points, the company’s subsequent public statements contradicted its own data,” said Supran, now an associate professor of environmental science and policy at the University of Miami.
It wasn't until 2007 that Exxon Mobil publicly conceded that climate change was occurring, and was largely driven by the burning of fossil fuels and proliferation of heat-trapping CO2.
Before the Industrial Revolution, CO2 levels were consistently around 280 ppm for almost 6,000 years of human civilization, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Since then, humans released an estimated 1.5 trillion tons of carbon emissions through the burning of fossil fuels -- including gas, coal and methane.
In 2022 — which NOAA now ranks as the sixth-warmest year on record — CO2 levels reached 420 parts per million in November, a mark the planet hasn’t seen in millions of years.
Nine of the last 10 years have been the warmest since 1880, according to NOAA. These rising temperatures are fueling extreme weather events worldwide, and California and the Western U.S. have been on the frontlines in recent years.
Despite a recent barrage of deadly storms that have hit California since the beginning of the year, the American Southwest is still braving one of its driest stretches in 1,200 years. California is also still recovering from a record-setting wildfire season in 2020, during which 4.3 million acres were scorched statewide. And as Arctic ice continues to melt, sea level rise threatens to exacerbate coastal erosion.
Vapor rises from the former Exxon Mobil refinery in Torrance in 2016. The company sold the facility to a smaller energy corporation the same year. (Michael Owen Baker / For The Times)
The recent Exxon Mobil findings have given more fodder to the #ExxonKnew campaign — an environmental crusade that traces its origins to a 2012 meeting of climate activists and experts in La Jolla. Its supporters have accused Exxon Mobil of intentionally misleading the public and causing humanity to lose precious time in the fight to curtail carbon emissions. They have called for investigations into the company’s statements about climate change and fossil fuels.
In that time, dozens of local and state governments, including several California cities, have filed suit against Exxon Mobil and other energy companies for orchestrating public deception campaigns in spite of internal scientific knowledge.
In 2019, a New York state judge dismissed the New York attorney general’s lawsuit against Exxon Mobil that accused the company of defrauding its shareholders by failing to accurately account for the risks of climate change.
As Exxon Mobil continues to challenge similar litigation elsewhere, the company’s website is now chock-full of climate-friendly lingo on how it intends to support a “net-zero future” with “lower-emission efforts” — a stark departure from its public stance more than a decade earlier.
“There's this sort of gradual evolution away from outright denial and towards what we call discourses of delay,” Supran said. “That kind of blends into the present where we have these much more subtle discourses that position fossil fuels as essential to the future of humanity.”
This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
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