The number of the world's farms to halve by 2100, study shows
New University of Colorado Boulder research shows the number of farms globally will shrink in half as the size of the average existing farms doubles by the end of the 21st century, posing significant risks to the world’s food systems.
Published today in the journal Nature Sustainability, the study is the first to track the number and size of farms year-over-year, from the 1960s and projecting through 2100.
The study shows that even rural, farm-dependent communities in Africa and Asia will experience a drop in the number of operating farms.
“We see a turning point from widespread farm creation to widespread consolidation on a global level, and that's the future trajectory that humanity is currently on,” said Zia Mehrabi, assistant professor of environmental studies at CU Boulder. “The size of the farm and the number of farms that exist are associated with key environmental and social outcomes.”
To evaluate the global state of farming, Mehrabi used data from the UN Food and Agricultural Organization on agricultural area, GDP per capita and rural population size of more than 180 countries to first reconstruct the evolution of farm numbers from 1969-2013 and then to project those numbers through 2100.
His analysis found that the number of farms around the world would drop from 616 million in 2020 to 272 million in 2100. A key reason: As a country’s economy grows, more people migrate to urban areas, leaving fewer people in rural areas to tend the land.
Reap what you sow
A decline in the number of farms and an increase in farm size has been happening in the United States and Western Europe for decades. The most recent data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture indicates there were 200,000 fewer farms in 2022 than in 2007.
Mehrabi’s analysis found that a turning point from farm creation to widespread consolidation will begin to occur as early as 2050 in communities across Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Oceania, Latin America and the Caribbean. Sub-Saharan Africa will follow the same course later in the century, the research found.
It also shows that even if the total amount of farmland doesn't change across the globe in coming years, fewer people will own and farm what land there is available. The trend could threaten biodiversity in a time where biodiversity conservation is top of mind.
“Larger farms typically have less biodiversity and more monocultures,” Mehrabi said. “Smaller farms typically have more biodiversity and crop diversity, which makes them more resilient to pest outbreaks and climate shocks.”
And it’s not just biodiversity: Food supply is also at risk. Mehrabi’s previous research shows the world’s smallest farms make up just 25% of the world’s agricultural land but harvest one-third of the world’s food.
Moreover, fewer farms mean fewer farmers who may carry with them valuable Indigenous knowledge dating back centuries. As farms consolidate, that knowledge is replaced by new technology and mechanisation.
Building a diverse food portfolio
Just as a diverse investment portfolio performs better than one that is not diversified, having diversity in the world’s food source portfolio is beneficial in the long run, said Mehrabi.
“If you’re investing in today’s food systems with around 600 million farms in the world, your portfolio is pretty diverse,” Mehrabi said. “If there’s damage to one farm, it’s likely the impact to your portfolio will be averaged out with the success of another. But if you decrease the number of farms and increase their size, the effect of that shock on your portfolio is going to increase. You’re carrying more risk.”
There are also upsides to the shift in corporate farm ownership: The paper points out that consolidation in farming can lead to improved labor productivity and economic growth with a larger workforce in non-farm employment and improved management systems.
One of the biggest benefits of farm consolidation, Mehrabi said, is improved economic opportunity for people, and the ability to choose their own career path within our outside of the agricultural sector.
But those future farm workers may need more support as suicide rates in the agriculture industry are among the highest rates by occupation in the U.S.
“Currently, we have around 600 million farms feeding the world, and they’re carrying 8 billion people on their shoulders,” Mehrabi said. “By the end of the century, we’ll likely have half the number of farmers feeding even more people. We really need to think about how we can have the education and support systems in place to support those farmers."
By raising awareness of global agricultural trends, Mehrabi hopes his analysis will lead to policies that ensure biodiversity conservation, maintain climate resilience, preserve Indigenous knowledge and provide incentives to improve the rural economy in countries around the world.
JOURNAL
Nature Sustainability
METHOD OF RESEARCH
Data/statistical analysis
SUBJECT OF RESEARCH
People
ARTICLE TITLE
Likely decline in the number of farms globally by the middle of the century
Automated agricultural machinery requires new approaches to ensuring safety
IMAGE: SALAH ISSA, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF AGRICULTURAL AND BIOLOGICAL ENGINEERING AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS, REVIEWED ACADEMIC LITERATURE ON SAFETY OF AUTOMATED AGRICULTURAL MACHINES. view more
CREDIT: COLLEGE OF ACES.
URBANA, Ill. — From self-driving tractors to weeding robots and AI-powered data collection, automated machinery is revolutionizing agricultural production. While these technological advancements can greatly improve productivity, they also raise new questions about safety measures and regulations. To address these issues, a recent study from the University of Illinois reviewed current academic literature on the safety of automated agricultural machines. Based on a review of more than 60 papers, the researchers identified three main topics: environmental perception, risk assessment and mitigation, and human factors and ergonomics.
“The majority of the research focuses on the first category, environmental perception. These studies primarily deal with how machines sense obstacles in the environment and respond to them. There is limited work on risk assessment or ergonomics,” said Salah Issa, Illinois Extension specialist and assistant professor in the Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering (ABE), part of the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences and The Grainger College of Engineering at the U of I. Issa is corresponding author on the paper.
Automated machines detect objects through perception sensors, which are then interpreted through machine learning algorithms to direct the equipment to stop, slow down, or change direction. There are three main types of obstacles that machines must be able to handle: positive, negative, and moving. Positive obstacles are objects that appear above ground, such as rocks, trees, and buildings. Negative obstacles are those that are lower than ground level, such as ditches and holes. Moving or dynamic obstacles are those that appear suddenly, such as a human being, an animal, or other moving machinery. These obstacles can vary widely, depending on type of crop, features of the area, and weather conditions.
Issa and co-author Guy Roger Aby, doctoral student in ABE, found the research papers explored a wide variety of different receptor and sensor types, including 3D laser scanners, ultrasonic sensors, remote sensing, stereo vision, thermal cameras, high-resolution cameras, and more. Each type has advantages and limitations, and the most effective approaches include a combination of different methods.
“The trend in literature is towards utilizing multiple types of sensors, as opposed to just a single sensor. This is also the direction most companies are taking. It makes perfect sense for agricultural machines, given the very dynamic environments they operate in,” Issa noted.
“However, there are still many questions that need to be addressed. For example, sensors must be sensitive enough to stop immediately if a human or other object appears. But if the machine stops and the farmer is not present, would they need to go back to check on the sensor and reset the machine? This is particularly challenging when it comes to quickly moving obstacles, like a passing squirrel or bird.”
Automatic agricultural vehicles face some of the same challenges as self-driving cars, but there are also notable differences. For instance, agriculture presents a more complex environment than city driving, where roads are structured and marked. However, erratic human behavior in other drivers is a concern on city roads, but is less of a factor in agricultural fields, Issa notes.
Only a few research papers addressed the second topic, risk assessment techniques and strategies. Issa says this is not surprising because most systems used in engineering for risk evaluation rely on historical data. That does not yet exist for autonomous systems in agriculture; there is little publicly available data about how they work and what the inherent risks are.
“We believe that existing safety standards are not well-suited for autonomous systems. But there’s a significant effort underway to revise the current standards, so in a few years there will be new and revised standards,” he said. Safety regulations addressing injuries and fatalities fall under the federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) but some states, including California and Indiana, also have their own regulations.
The researchers identified a limited number of papers on the third topic, human factors and ergonomics.
“This is a particularly challenging issue in agriculture. In most manufacturing industries, human-robot interaction can be minimized. But some agricultural robots, such as harvesters and pickers, are designed to work in the same space as humans. The few papers on this topic explored human-robot interactions from an ergonomic perspective, focusing on how to improve machine design to ensure safety,” Issa said.
While autonomic robots are an emerging technology, some machines are already commercially available. For example, one company manufactures automatic sprayers for orchards, and self-driving tractors are being tested and implemented in select areas. Automated agricultural machines will undoubtedly become indispensable parts of modern farming in the next few decades, and robust safety systems are crucial for their widespread adoption, Issa and Aby concluded.
Issa directs the UIUC Agricultural Safety and Health Program, which has launched a series of ag safety initiatives, including a Linkedin group and a special issue of the Journal of Agricultural Safety and Health. Issa is also an affiliate in the Center for Digital Agriculture and the National Center for Supercomputing Applications.
Editor’s Notes:
The paper, “Safety of Automated Agricultural Machineries: A Systematic Literature Review,” is published in MDPI Safety [DOI: 10.3390/safety9010013]. Authors include Salah Issa and Guy Aby.
The College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences (ACES) at the University of Illinois has top-ranked programs, dedicated students, and world-renowned faculty and alumni who are developing solutions to the world’s most critical challenges to provide abundant food and energy, a healthy environment, and successful families and communities.
JOURNAL
Safety
METHOD OF RESEARCH
Literature review
SUBJECT OF RESEARCH
Not applicable
ARTICLE TITLE
Safety of Automated Agricultural Machineries: A Systematic Literature Review
No comments:
Post a Comment