At Brics summit, Argentina's bid for membership is up for discussion and subject to debate


South China Morning Post
Wed, August 23, 2023

As Brics, the coalition of emerging economies made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, begin discussions at its 15th summit starting on Tuesday in Johannesburg, the biggest debates may revolve around a country that is not even a member: Argentina.

For the first time in 13 years - South Africa, this year's host, joined in 2010 - the group is considering expanding its ranks.

Argentina, which has applied for entry, regards membership as a way to improve its economy, which has endured inflation of 60 per cent this year alone, a significant devaluation of its peso and the refinancing of a US$46 billion debt to the International Monetary Fund.

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Brazil, fearing Brics would become an anti-Western club that could harm its interests in the US and Europe, has long resisted expansion, which was officially proposed by the Chinese in 2021.

When Luis Inacio Lula da Silva was elected Brazilian president last year, though, he changed the picture and for the first time spoke openly in favour of Argentina joining the group. It was the only one of five Latin American and Caribbean applicants - Bolivia, Cuba, Honduras and Venezuela were the others - that could count on his support.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at the 15th Brics Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa on Tuesday. Photo: EPA-EFE alt=Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at the 15th Brics Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa on Tuesday. Photo: EPA-EFE>

But the results of Argentina's presidential primaries - in which the far-right libertarian Javier Milei emerged as the favourite for the October election - may have jeopardised the nation's candidacy and renewed a sense of caution about admitting new members to Brics.

Karin Costa Vazquez, a non-resident fellow at the Centre for China and Globalisation in Beijing, said that unlike most of the other 23 countries that have applied for membership into the group, Argentina is not under sanctions or facing international isolation.

Yet the South American nation faces serious liquidity issues. Argentina's interest in joining Brics is primarily motivated by its need for alternative financing for infrastructure projects.

Vazquez noted that full membership might also give Buenos Aires access to Brics' Contingent Reserve Arrangement, which offers options to member nations facing pressure on their balance of payments and could provide significant financial aid to Argentina.

Milei has made belligerent comments about Brazil - threatening to withdraw from Mercosur - and suggested he might freeze diplomatic relations with China. His remarks pose a problem for Argentina's Brics application, given the risk that if elected president, he might order an immediate withdrawal from the group.

Argentina has "a lot to benefit from" Brics membership, "but domestic policy dynamics will need to be taken into account", Vazquez said.

"The worst scenario would be for Argentina to enter and leave in a few months."

She added: "It goes against the interest of every member of the bloc, and there is no solution yet. How this is to be addressed remains at the heart of the matter."

While Brics might want to add Argentina for political reasons, given the country's influence in other world blocs like the G20 and its presence in the Latin American economy, Vazquez said that the risks the country might pose to the group if it shifts to the far right may lead to a more cautious approach to the bloc's overall expansion.

Javier Milei, the front runner in Argentina's presidential election in October, has made statements that could threaten the nation's application for inclusion into Brics. Photo: Bloomberg alt=Javier Milei, the front runner in Argentina's presidential election in October, has made statements that could threaten the nation's application for inclusion into Brics. Photo: Bloomberg>

She suggested that negotiations at the summit in Johannesburg should include either announcing specific requirements for membership or unveiling a package of rules, along with identifying the first applicants preapproved to initiate the admissions process.

Jorge Heine, a former Chilean ambassador to China, India and South Africa, said that membership could also bring diplomatic benefits to Argentina, considering that Brics "has made a consistent difference in international politics and in the politics of the Global South".

But the perception that Brics is slowly becoming "an anti-Western club" could raise eyebrows in European capitals and the US, complicating Argentina's renegotiations of its US$46 billion debt to the IMF, where Washington has veto power.

The issue, Heine said, goes beyond Milei. Even among progressive politicians in Buenos Aires, he noted, there is no consensus on whether Argentina should join Brics. Heine said that, between Brics members' caution and the opposition of some Argentines, he was sceptical about immediate membership.

"I think the possibility of Argentina joining Brics, at least in the short term, has considerably diminished," he said.

His fears are shared by Bernabe Malacalza, a senior researcher at Argentina's National Scientific and Technical Research Council, who said that Argentina applied to join Brics without any internal discussion on the purposes of membership and without outlining strategies that could benefit the country's foreign policy.

"Argentina currently requires support to navigate its economic and financial crisis, diversify its foreign relations, and secure financing from multiple actors. The central focus should be on strengthening a national development process with significant state contributions to science and technology," he said.

Malacalza said that he did not think that Argentina's possible election outcome was an impediment to its application, because he believed that Brics "needs to incorporate more actors as it has lost focus and cohesion over time".

If anything, he said, Buenos Aires would need to consider the risks a Brics membership would pose, because of the "growing Chinese dominance" that has turned the bloc into another piece of its conglomerate foreign policy that also includes the Global Security Initiative, the Global Development Initiative and the Belt and Road Initiative.


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