Migrants could 'destabilize', 'overwhelm' countries- UK PM
SOUNDING LIKE OSWALD MOSLEY;
HE DID NOT CALL THEM VERMIN THOUGH
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Updated Sat, December 16, 2023
STORY: Speaking at a political event in Rome organized by his Italian counterpart Giorgia Meloni's right-wing party, Sunak said hostile powers would use illegal migration as a "weapon" to destabilize societies.
"If we do not tackle this problem, the numbers will only grow. It will overwhelm our countries and our capacity to help those who actually need our help the most," Sunak said.
"Making that deterrent credible will mean doing things differently, breaking from consensus, and both Giorgia and I are prepared to do that."
Sunak survived a major threat to his leadership on Tuesday (December 12) when he won a vote in parliament on an emergency bill to revive his plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, thwarting a rebellion from some of his lawmakers.
Updated Sat, December 16, 2023
STORY: Speaking at a political event in Rome organized by his Italian counterpart Giorgia Meloni's right-wing party, Sunak said hostile powers would use illegal migration as a "weapon" to destabilize societies.
"If we do not tackle this problem, the numbers will only grow. It will overwhelm our countries and our capacity to help those who actually need our help the most," Sunak said.
"Making that deterrent credible will mean doing things differently, breaking from consensus, and both Giorgia and I are prepared to do that."
Sunak survived a major threat to his leadership on Tuesday (December 12) when he won a vote in parliament on an emergency bill to revive his plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, thwarting a rebellion from some of his lawmakers.
The UK prime minister attended the Christmas party for young conservatives called "Atreju", organised by the Brothers of Italy party.
The festival, which has been running since 1998, is named after the main character in the fantasy book and film "The Neverending Story."
Mr Sunak was expected to be accompanied by Spanish far-right Vox party leader Santiago Abascal, and Albanian at the festival in Rome.
It followed an appearance by Elon Musk at the annual event, which has been frequented by former Trump ally Steve Bannon and Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban in the past.
Mr Sunak will also hold talks with the Italian and Albanian leaders, in which illegal migration is expected to top the agenda.
Downing Street said that discussions would focus on “joint efforts to tackle illegal immigration and organised crime”.
The festival, which has been running since 1998, is named after the main character in the fantasy book and film "The Neverending Story."
Mr Sunak was expected to be accompanied by Spanish far-right Vox party leader Santiago Abascal, and Albanian at the festival in Rome.
It followed an appearance by Elon Musk at the annual event, which has been frequented by former Trump ally Steve Bannon and Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban in the past.
Mr Sunak will also hold talks with the Italian and Albanian leaders, in which illegal migration is expected to top the agenda.
Downing Street said that discussions would focus on “joint efforts to tackle illegal immigration and organised crime”.
UK's Sunak warns asylum seekers could 'overwhelm' parts of Europe
Reuters
Sat, December 16, 2023
Italy's PM Meloni meets Britain's PM Sunak in Rome
ROME (Reuters) -British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on Saturday that he would push for global reforms to the asylum system and warned the threat of growing number of refugees could "overwhelm" parts of Europe.
In a speech in Italy, Sunak made some of his strongest criticisms of the global asylum system as he tries to revive his government's plans to send refugees to live in Rwanda.
Sunak made the comments at a political festival organised by the party of his Italian counterpart Giorgia Meloni, where he warned that some "enemies" were deliberately "driving people to our shores to try and destabilise our societies".
"If we do not tackle this problem, the numbers will only grow. It will overwhelm our countries and our capacity to help those who actually need our help the most," Sunak said.
"If that requires us to update our laws and lead an international conversation to amend the post-war frameworks around asylum, then we must do that."
Britain's former Home Secretary Suella Braverman earlier this year called for changes to United Nations Refugee Convention that obliges all signatories to grant asylum to people fleeing persecution.
The provision has been one of the biggest legal barriers to the British government's efforts to stop small boat crossings and to send would-be asylum-seekers to Rwanda for processing.
Britain and Italy announced plans on Saturday to jointly co-finance the journey home for migrants stranded in Tunisia, according to statements from both countries, but did not say how much would money was being provided.
Last month, Italy agreed with Albania to build sea migrant reception centres in Albania to host migrants trying to come ashore in an effort to try to bring down numbers that have nearly doubled in the past year.
A few days ago, Sunak survived a major threat to his leadership on Tuesday when he won a vote in parliament on an emergency bill to revive his plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, seeing off a rebellion from some of his lawmakers.
(Reporting by Francesca Landini and Andrew MacAskill; editing by Clelia Oziel)
Sat, December 16, 2023
Italy's PM Meloni meets Britain's PM Sunak in Rome
ROME (Reuters) -British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on Saturday that he would push for global reforms to the asylum system and warned the threat of growing number of refugees could "overwhelm" parts of Europe.
In a speech in Italy, Sunak made some of his strongest criticisms of the global asylum system as he tries to revive his government's plans to send refugees to live in Rwanda.
Sunak made the comments at a political festival organised by the party of his Italian counterpart Giorgia Meloni, where he warned that some "enemies" were deliberately "driving people to our shores to try and destabilise our societies".
"If we do not tackle this problem, the numbers will only grow. It will overwhelm our countries and our capacity to help those who actually need our help the most," Sunak said.
"If that requires us to update our laws and lead an international conversation to amend the post-war frameworks around asylum, then we must do that."
Britain's former Home Secretary Suella Braverman earlier this year called for changes to United Nations Refugee Convention that obliges all signatories to grant asylum to people fleeing persecution.
The provision has been one of the biggest legal barriers to the British government's efforts to stop small boat crossings and to send would-be asylum-seekers to Rwanda for processing.
Britain and Italy announced plans on Saturday to jointly co-finance the journey home for migrants stranded in Tunisia, according to statements from both countries, but did not say how much would money was being provided.
Last month, Italy agreed with Albania to build sea migrant reception centres in Albania to host migrants trying to come ashore in an effort to try to bring down numbers that have nearly doubled in the past year.
A few days ago, Sunak survived a major threat to his leadership on Tuesday when he won a vote in parliament on an emergency bill to revive his plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, seeing off a rebellion from some of his lawmakers.
(Reporting by Francesca Landini and Andrew MacAskill; editing by Clelia Oziel)
Rishi Sunak says migrants threaten to ‘overwhelm’ UK
Kate Devlin
Sat, December 16, 2023
Rishi Sunak has warned migrants threaten to “overwhelm” countries including the UK unless radical action is taken – as he vowed to push for reforms to the global rules on refugees.
The prime minister also said that failing to tackle illegal migration would “destroy the public’s faith” in politicians and “our very systems of government” during a conference organised by the far-right Italian leader Giorgia Meloni.
In his speech in Rome, he warned that “enemy” states were deliberately “driving people to our shores to try and destabilise our societies”.
And he invoked Margaret Thatcher’s “radicalism” as he tried to save his controversial plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda, which has come under fire from MPs on all sides of his party.
His comments appeared to echo the harder language on migration of his sacked home secretary Suella Braverman. She was condemned last year for claiming the UK faced an “invasion” on its south coast.
Critics accused him of using her “playbook” and said the Tories were in a “bidding war to see who can make the most toxic contribution to the debate”.
A day after a migrant died while trying to cross the English Channel, Mr Sunak also warned that “if we don’t fix this problem now, the boats will keep coming and more lives will be lost at sea.”
“If that requires us to update our laws and lead an international conversation to amend the post-war frameworks around asylum, we must do that,” he added.
Government sources said this could include a host of post-war agreements such as the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and the Refugee Convention, sentiments that were welcomed by Tory MPs on the right of the party.
In Italy, Mr Sunak also held talks with Ms Meloni and Albania’s prime minister Edi Rama. With the former, he agreed to jointly fund a plan to return migrants in Tunisia, just across the sea from Italy, to their home countries. In his speech, Mr Sunak said no issue required “Thatcher’s radicalism and drive” more than tackling migration.
As he praised the Italian prime minister, he said they were both “determined to break the business model” of these criminal gangs who traffic people in small boats.
Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni with Rishi Sunak as he finishes his speech in Rome on Saturday (AP)
The speech was delivered at the Atreju festival hosted by Ms Meloni’s populist Brothers of Italy party and bizarrely named after a character from the 1984 children’s fantasy film The NeverEnding Story.
To applause, Mr Sunak told the crowd that if tackling illegal migration “requires us to update our laws and lead an international conversation to amend the post-war frameworks around asylum, we must do that.
“Because if we don’t fix this problem now, the boats will keep coming and more lives will be lost at sea.”
He added: “Our opponents just want to ignore this issue. They want to put their heads in the sand and hope it goes away. Well, let me tell them, it won’t.”
Mr Sunak said a lack of action would mean “our enemies will see how unable we are to deal with this and so will increasingly use migration as a weapon: deliberately driving people to our shores to try and destabilise our societies.”
Russia has already been accused by Finland of sending migrants to the European Union to destabilise the bloc.
Mr Sunak said: “If we do not tackle this problem, the numbers will only grow. It will overwhelm our countries, and our capacity to help those who need our help most.
“The costs of accommodating these people will anger our citizens, who won’t understand why their money should have to be spent on dealing with the consequences of this evil trade. It will destroy the public’s faith not just in us as politicians but in our very systems of government.”
Suella Braverman claimed in a speech earlier this year that as many as 780 million people would be eligible to claim asylum (Getty)
Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesperson Alistair Carmichael accused Mr Sunak of using Ms Braverman’s “playbook”. He said: “Rishi Sunak is so desperate he’s reaching for the Braverman playbook, using divisive rhetoric to try to cover up his failures on asylum.Infighting within the Conservative Party is now generating a bidding war to see who can make the most toxic contribution to the debate.
“It is also a bit rich to say we need international cooperation when Conservative ministers are trashing the very treaties that we have signed up to to deal with this. Who would want to cooperate with a government that is happy to disregard our legal obligations? Instead of posturing, Rishi Sunak would do better to focus on tackling the asylum backlog that is leaving people in limbo and costing taxpayers billions.”
But Mr Sunak’s comments were welcomed by MPs on the right of the Tory party. Danny Kruger, the leader of the New Conservatives group, said he was “very encouraged by the PM’s speech ... suggesting an international agreement to rewrite refugee and human rights rules”.
Earlier this year, Ms Braverman, while she was still home secretary, used a widely disparaged speech in the US to warn that as many as 780 million people would be eligible to claim asylum without radical reform of global refugee rules.
She also faced a ferocious backlash after she singled out gay people to say “simply being gay, a woman or fearful of discrimination” was now effectively enough to qualify.
Illegal migrants will overwhelm Britain without global reforms, warns Sunak
Sat, December 16, 2023
Rishi Sunak has warned migrants threaten to “overwhelm” countries including the UK unless radical action is taken – as he vowed to push for reforms to the global rules on refugees.
The prime minister also said that failing to tackle illegal migration would “destroy the public’s faith” in politicians and “our very systems of government” during a conference organised by the far-right Italian leader Giorgia Meloni.
In his speech in Rome, he warned that “enemy” states were deliberately “driving people to our shores to try and destabilise our societies”.
And he invoked Margaret Thatcher’s “radicalism” as he tried to save his controversial plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda, which has come under fire from MPs on all sides of his party.
His comments appeared to echo the harder language on migration of his sacked home secretary Suella Braverman. She was condemned last year for claiming the UK faced an “invasion” on its south coast.
Critics accused him of using her “playbook” and said the Tories were in a “bidding war to see who can make the most toxic contribution to the debate”.
A day after a migrant died while trying to cross the English Channel, Mr Sunak also warned that “if we don’t fix this problem now, the boats will keep coming and more lives will be lost at sea.”
“If that requires us to update our laws and lead an international conversation to amend the post-war frameworks around asylum, we must do that,” he added.
Government sources said this could include a host of post-war agreements such as the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and the Refugee Convention, sentiments that were welcomed by Tory MPs on the right of the party.
In Italy, Mr Sunak also held talks with Ms Meloni and Albania’s prime minister Edi Rama. With the former, he agreed to jointly fund a plan to return migrants in Tunisia, just across the sea from Italy, to their home countries. In his speech, Mr Sunak said no issue required “Thatcher’s radicalism and drive” more than tackling migration.
As he praised the Italian prime minister, he said they were both “determined to break the business model” of these criminal gangs who traffic people in small boats.
Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni with Rishi Sunak as he finishes his speech in Rome on Saturday (AP)
The speech was delivered at the Atreju festival hosted by Ms Meloni’s populist Brothers of Italy party and bizarrely named after a character from the 1984 children’s fantasy film The NeverEnding Story.
To applause, Mr Sunak told the crowd that if tackling illegal migration “requires us to update our laws and lead an international conversation to amend the post-war frameworks around asylum, we must do that.
“Because if we don’t fix this problem now, the boats will keep coming and more lives will be lost at sea.”
He added: “Our opponents just want to ignore this issue. They want to put their heads in the sand and hope it goes away. Well, let me tell them, it won’t.”
Mr Sunak said a lack of action would mean “our enemies will see how unable we are to deal with this and so will increasingly use migration as a weapon: deliberately driving people to our shores to try and destabilise our societies.”
Russia has already been accused by Finland of sending migrants to the European Union to destabilise the bloc.
Mr Sunak said: “If we do not tackle this problem, the numbers will only grow. It will overwhelm our countries, and our capacity to help those who need our help most.
“The costs of accommodating these people will anger our citizens, who won’t understand why their money should have to be spent on dealing with the consequences of this evil trade. It will destroy the public’s faith not just in us as politicians but in our very systems of government.”
Suella Braverman claimed in a speech earlier this year that as many as 780 million people would be eligible to claim asylum (Getty)
Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesperson Alistair Carmichael accused Mr Sunak of using Ms Braverman’s “playbook”. He said: “Rishi Sunak is so desperate he’s reaching for the Braverman playbook, using divisive rhetoric to try to cover up his failures on asylum.Infighting within the Conservative Party is now generating a bidding war to see who can make the most toxic contribution to the debate.
“It is also a bit rich to say we need international cooperation when Conservative ministers are trashing the very treaties that we have signed up to to deal with this. Who would want to cooperate with a government that is happy to disregard our legal obligations? Instead of posturing, Rishi Sunak would do better to focus on tackling the asylum backlog that is leaving people in limbo and costing taxpayers billions.”
But Mr Sunak’s comments were welcomed by MPs on the right of the Tory party. Danny Kruger, the leader of the New Conservatives group, said he was “very encouraged by the PM’s speech ... suggesting an international agreement to rewrite refugee and human rights rules”.
Earlier this year, Ms Braverman, while she was still home secretary, used a widely disparaged speech in the US to warn that as many as 780 million people would be eligible to claim asylum without radical reform of global refugee rules.
She also faced a ferocious backlash after she singled out gay people to say “simply being gay, a woman or fearful of discrimination” was now effectively enough to qualify.
Illegal migrants will overwhelm Britain without global reforms, warns Sunak
Edward Malnick
Sat, December 16, 2023
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni meets Rishi Sunak at Palazzo Chigi, in Rome on Saturday - REUTERS/Remo Casilli
Rishi Sunak has pledged to push for reform of global refugee rules as he warned that failing to tackle illegal migration would “destroy the public’s faith” in politicians and governments.
In a speech in Italy, the Prime Minister said that insufficient action would lead to growing numbers which will “overwhelm our countries and our capacity to help those who need our help most.”
He also warned that malign states were deliberately “driving people to our shores to try and destabilise our societies.”
Mr Sunak was speaking at a festival hosted by Giorgia Meloni’s populist Brothers of Italy party in Rome, as he attempts to persuade the Conservative Right and Tory voters that his Rwanda legislation would be sufficient to start deportation flights and deter future illegal Channel crossings.
Citing a need for world leaders to apply “Thatcher’s radicalism and drive” in tackling illegal migration, Mr Sunak said that both he and Ms Meloni, the Italian prime minister, were “determined to break the business model” of these criminal gangs involved in people trafficking.
He added: “If that requires us to update our laws and lead an international conversation to amend the post-war frameworks around asylum, we must do that.
“Because if we don’t fix this problem now, the boats will keep coming and more lives will be lost at sea.”
Mr Sunak and Ms Meloni, who has defended Britain’s deal with Rwanda, have been working together to campaign for a crackdown on illegal migration. Mr Sunak sees Rwanda-style deals to process asylum claims in third countries as key to reducing illegal arrivals, along with returns deals such as the one struck between the UK and Albania to speed up the deportation of illegal migrants.
In his speech on Saturday, Mr Sunak said: “Our opponents just want to ignore this issue. They want to put their heads in the sand and hope it goes away. Well, let me tell them, it won’t.”
Mr Sunak said that in the event of a failure to act, “our enemies will see how unable we are to deal with this and so will increasingly use migration as a weapon: deliberately driving people to our shores to try and destabilise our societies.”
Finland, which shares an 800-mile border with Russia, has accused Moscow of deliberately sending Middle Eastern migrants into the European Union to destabilise the bloc.
Meloni and Sunak are joined by Albania's prime minister, Edy Rama - ISABELLA BONOTTO/AFP via Getty Images
Sunak praised Meloni's 'conviction and determination' as he received a warm welcome at the event - Photo by ISABELLA BONOTTO/AFP via Getty Images
In the past, Poland has accused Belarus of encouraging migrants from the Middle East and Africa to cross into Europe in revenge for Western sanctions on Alexander Lukashenko’s government.
Mr Sunak added: “If we do not tackle this problem, the numbers will only grow. It will overwhelm our countries, and our capacity to help those who need our help most.
“The costs of accommodating these people will anger our citizens, who won’t understand why their money should have to be spent on dealing with the consequences of this evil trade. It will destroy the public’s faith not just in us as politicians but in our very systems of government.”
Mr Sunak’s intervention comes after Suella Braverman, while still Home Secretary, used a speech in the US to warn that as many as 780 million people will be eligible to claim asylum without radical reform of global refugee rules.
Speaking in September, Mrs Braverman said that the threshold for asylum claims under the United Nations Refugee Convention had been lowered in the courts.
She warned that “simply being gay, a woman or fearful of discrimination” is now effectively enough to qualify for protection, with refugee rights extended to up to 780 million people.
Number 10 said that after their talks on Saturday, Mr Sunak and Ms Meloni had agreed to co-fund a project that would see the two countries “promote and assist the voluntary return” of migrants currently stuck in Tunisia.
Tunisia neighbours Italy just across the Mediterranean and attracts many migrants from several African countries who begin their journey to Europe there.
Is Rishi Sunak the right person to take on illegal immigration? Here's what Yahoo readers think
Ellen Manning
Fri, December 15, 2023
Yahoo UK's poll of the week lets you vote and indicate your strength of feeling on one of the week's hot topics. After 72 hours the poll closes and, each Friday, we'll publish and analyse the results, giving readers the chance to see how polarising a topic has become and if their view chimes with other Yahoo UK readers.
Rishi Sunak has been trying to win support for his Rwanda bill. (Getty)
After one of his most challenging weeks as prime minister, including a battle to win support from his own party for his Rwanda Bill, we asked Yahoo readers for their thoughts on Rishi Sunak and immigration.
Along with facing questions at the COVID inquiry about his role as chancellor during the pandemic, Sunak has been trying to win Tory support for the Rwanda programme and fulfil his pledge to "stop the boats". But the PM has faced a rebellion from his own MPs, with those on the right of his party saying it is not tough enough.
The Rwanda plan aims to deport asylum seekers to Kigali but has suffered a series of defeats in the courts. Its latest version went before MPs on Tuesday and while dozens of Tory MPs abstained from the vote, none voted against it, leading to its approval. However, Sunak's battle is not over, with right-wing Tory factions saying they reserved the right to vote against the draft law when it returns to the Commons next year.
Yahoo News UK asked our readers if they thought the current prime minister is the right person to tackle illegal immigration, here are the results:
Most people think Rishi Sunak isn't the right person to take on illegal immigration. (Yahoo News UK)
(Yahoo News UK)
Our poll - which ran from Monday at midday until midday Thursday - asked: 'Is Rishi Sunak the right person to take on illegal immigration?'
It received 4,096 votes and showed three-quarters of Yahoo readers think he isn't, with fewer than one in five saying he is. Some 76% of voters said no, Sunak isn't the right person to take on illegal immigration, while 18% said yes he is, and 5% did not lean either way.
Some 76% of voters said no, Sunak isn't the right person to take on illegal immigrationYahoo News UK
Yahoo News UK readers were also asked: 'How strongly do you feel about Sunak's performance on immigration?'
This poll received 2,019 votes with the most common vote being 0/10, indicating many readers were unenthusiastic about Sunak's performance on immigration. The average strength-of-feeling score on all the votes was 4.2.
The average strength-of-feeling score on all the votes was 4.2Yahoo News UK
Our original poll article can be found here
An Ipsos UK survey for the Evening Standard found that 79% of Britons believe the Conservatives are doing a bad job on immigration, with just one in 10 saying the government is doing a good job. The results were the highest and lowest respectively since the same question was first asked by Ipsos two years ago.
And as for Sunak himself, his personal popularity is definitely in the doldrums. According to a YouGov poll published earlier this week, the prime minister now has his lowest-ever net favourability score of minus 49, a ten-point drop from late November.
That's comparable to former leader Boris Johnson’s scores during his final months as prime minister.
Rishi Sunak Is Falling Short on His Five Pledges to British Voters
Alex Wickham, Philip Aldrick and Andrew Atkinson
Fri, December 15, 2023
(Bloomberg) -- Rishi Sunak began 2023 asking UK voters to judge him by five pledges. As the year ends, the prime minister can only claim victory on one, leaving him an uphill battle to deliver ahead of a general election due within 14 months.
Sunak’s promises — made Jan. 4 in east London — were to halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce the national debt, shrink National Health Service waiting lists and stop migrants crossing the English Channel in small boats. In a speech low on specifics, he told the public: “I fully expect you to hold my government and I to account on delivering those goals.”
Almost a year later, and with Sunak’s Conservatives languishing over 20 points behind the opposition Labour Party in national polls, only the inflation target has been met. On the promise that mattered most to voters when it was made — cutting health care waiting lists — the prime minister has headed in the wrong direction.
In January, 42% of Britons said the state of the NHS was the most important issue facing the country, according to Ipsos. Some 37% cited the economy, 36% mentioned inflation and 15% were concerned about immigration. While economic concerns have since overtaken health care, the parlous state of public services is nevertheless likely to be an electoral dragnet for the Tories.
Sunak’s goals were never intended to all be met this year, but if he’s unable to deliver in coming months, the electorate looks increasingly like complying with his instruction to hold him to account: by installing Labour leader Keir Starmer in 10 Downing Street.
Here’s Sunak’s delivery record so far:
NHS Waiting Lists: Near Record
What he said: “NHS waiting lists will fall.”
NHS England data shows waiting lists for treatment totaled 7.71 million at the end of October. While that’s slightly down from September’s record of 7.77 million, it’s up about half a million from when Sunak made his pledge.
The prime minister has sought to blame industrial action by doctors and nurses for the failure to cut waiting lists, telling reporters this week: “It’s hard to get the backlogs down when people are on strike.”
With junior doctors set to strike again this month and for a record six consecutive days in January, Sunak faces a stern test to deliver on the NHS pledge before an election, when dissatisfaction with the state of public services after 13 years of Conservative governments will likely become a key factor.
Stopping the Boats: Not Stopped
What he said: “We will pass new laws to stop the boats.”
Sunak chose to make stopping the flow of asylum seekers crossing the English channel one of his flagship policies, after more than 45,000 made the voyage last year.
He initially couched the promise as passing new laws — which he has achieved. But Downing Street shortened the promise to a pithy “stop the boats,” something the government has manifestly failed to do, with about 29,000 migrants crossing to UK shores this year. Ministers have conceded that the government will not have kept its promise until all the boats have stopped.
Furthermore, Sunak’s plan to create a deterrent by deporting migrants to Rwanda has so far failed, with the UK’s top court ruling it unlawful on human rights grounds. Further legislation designed to circumvent that ruling is working its way through Parliament, but it threatens to split his party.
Halving Inflation: Success
What he said: “We will halve inflation this year.”
When Sunak made the pledge, inflation was 10.7%. It’s now 4.6% and the Bank of England forecasts it will end the year even lower. Sunak has already declared victory on what was his top economic priority.
But his success is really the BOE’s, and meeting it hasn’t been pain-free. Interest rates were 3.5% at the start of 2023 and are now at a 15-year high of 5.25%, a pace of increase that’s hit mortgage-holders hard. Moreover, inflation remains at more than double the official 2% target and underlying domestic measures suggest it remains a threat.
Growth: Flat-Lining
What he said: “We will grow the economy.”
When Sunak made his pledge, the latest data showed the economy was shrinking and was still 0.8% smaller than before the pandemic. Both the Office for Budget Responsibility and the BOE were predicting lengthy recessions but the OBR expected growth in the final months of 2023, a forecast Sunak turned into a commitment.
Events turned out very different. The economy has been more resilient and revisions to past data showed the post-pandemic recovery was stronger than thought. However, the economy has flat-lined since last year, with minimal growth. The latest monthly data showed a surprise 0.3% contraction in October, and the 0% quarterly growth in the three months to September could be revised down at the next estimate on Dec 22.
On an annual basis, Sunak will be able to declare success on growth, as he did Thursday. “We have defied the skeptics thanks to our management of the economy,” he said. Compared with October 2022, the economy is 0.3% larger. But on a quarterly or monthly basis, the economy is now either shrinking or stagnating.
Debt: On Track
What he said: “We will make sure our national debt is falling.”
This was the most ambiguous pledge, given the government looks at debt over a medium-term horizon.
Total debt has grown to 97.8% of Gross Domestic Product from 94.8% in January. The OBR forecasts it will fall to 94.1% by 2028-29. Excluding Bank of England liabilities — the measure the government uses for its fiscal rules — debt has grown to 88.6% from 84%. It’s forecast to rise to 93.2% in 2026-27 before dipping to 92.8% in 2028-29 — just delivering on Sunak’s promise.
But the context is less gratifying because the projections assume austerity in public services outside health, education and defense, a plan think tanks have described as “implausible,” and the highest tax burden since World War II.
Bloomberg Businessweek
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