Growing Coal Dependency Puts Central Asian Economies at Risk
- Central Asian states have doubled their coal-based power generation capacity over the past decade, with plans for further expansion.
- The continued reliance on coal exacerbates environmental challenges and strains state budgets in the long term.
- Despite some efforts towards renewable energy, Central Asian nations are prioritizing coal, undermining their climate commitments and increasing the risk of stranded assets.
Global warming is causing temperatures to rise at a faster pace in Central Asia than in other parts of the world. Yet a report issued by a watchdog group shows that Central Asian states are compounding their environmental challenges by doubling down on the use of coal-fired power plants, a primary source of greenhouse gas emissions that fuel warming.
The annual report by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), titled Boom and Bust Coal 2024: Tracking the Global Coal Plant Pipeline, showed that coal’s role in power generation has doubled in Central Asia over the past decade. Plans to add generating capacity of coal-fired plants in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan reached 8.1 gigawatts (GW) last year, up from 3.9 GW in 2013, according to GEM data. Coal currently accounts for 45 percent of electricity production in the region. Turkmenistan’s power production relies on natural gas, and thus its production wasn’t included as part of the GEM coal report.
Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are among only eight states globally that developed plans in 2023 to build new coal-fired plants. The report also notes that no Central Asian state has a plan to phase out coal-fired power production; most also don’t have a blueprint to achieve carbon neutrality in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement.
“Central Asia plans to balloon its new coal power generation while most other regions are plateauing or decreasing proposals. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan are trending in the wrong direction,” the GEM report states.
The report also makes the argument that the region’s continuing embrace of coal-fired power production may solve short-term problems but will ultimately add long-term stress to state budgets. “These future coal-fired power stations would pose stranded asset risks and unnecessary socioeconomic and environmental costs,” it says.
Over 60 percent of the 16.8 GW electricity generated by burning coal in Central Asia was produced by outdated plants in 2023, the GEM report states. The efficient operating lifetime for a coal plant is generally accepted to be 40 years. Continued operation of plants beyond the 40-year timeframe poses “serious risks” for excessive pollution and breakdown, according to GEM. Risks are heightened for outdated combined plants that generate heat and electricity, given the greater chances of a breakdown during a winter cold snap.
“Betting on new coal capacity is a risky strategy for Central Asia. These countries should prioritize renewable energy, energy storage, smart grids, and transmission infrastructure,” Flora Champenois, GEM’s Coal Program Director, said in a written statement provided to Eurasianet.
Kazakhstan is the Central Asia leader in trying to go green, yet it is also the region’s worst coal offender. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in early 2023 approved a strategy for Kazakhstan to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 concerning greenhouse gas emissions. In late 2023, Kazakhstan also joined the Global Methane Pledge. Methane emissions as part of fuel extraction is another source of global warming. The same year, however, Kazakhstan announced plans to add 4.6 GW of coal-fired power generating capacity, which the GEM report notes is the third-most proposed generating capacity added in 2023, behind China and India.
The two largest, new projects are in Ekibastuz, a city in the northern Pavlodar Region not far from the Russian border: one involves the expansion of the Ekibastuz-2 power station; the other is the construction of a new facility, Ekibastuz-3. No existing coal plant in Kazakhstan has an officially confirmed retirement date.
The report asserts “Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan are going down the same path as Kazakhstan, though at a smaller scale.” Kyrgyzstan, for example, signed a deal with Russian firms to build a new coal plant in the Jalal-Abad Region capable of generating 0.7 GW per year. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan has plans to add two units to the existing Angren power station. Concurrently, coal production is rising in Central Asia, underscored by plans by the Bogatyr Coal Mine in Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s largest coal source, to increase production in 2024 by 25 percent.
“For Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, which have existing climate commitments, following through with the proposed coal proposals will make meeting these commitments more difficult and expensive,” the report says. “The same would be true for the other Central Asian countries should they make coal phaseout or carbon neutrality goals in the future.”
Overall, the GEM report showed that the G7 group of major industrial countries accounted for 15 percent (310 GW) of the coal-fired generating capacity in 2023, down from 23 percent (443 GW) in 2015. The report also cited China as world’s worst abuser of coal. Global coal-fired power production grew by 48.4 GW, or 2 percent, in 2023, for an overall total of 2,130 GW. China was responsible for two-thirds of the additions.
Reuters | April 11, 2024
Mao Zedong statue.(Image courtesy of 猫猫的日记本 |Wikimedia Commons.)
China’s state planner on Friday finalized a rule to set up a domestic coal production reserve system by 2027, aimed at stabilizing thermal coal prices and supplies to power plants.
The rule, which was first issued in draft form by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) in December, called for 300 million metric tons of “dispatchable” annual coal production by 2030, equivalent to about 6% of last year’s output.
China set a goal in 2021 to have coal reserves equivalent to 15% of annual output stocked at mines, ports, power plants and other designated storage areas.
The new system will build on that measure by ensuring that a certain amount of production capacity is ready to be mined when needed.
It will focus on mines that produce coal for electricity and heat generation – prices of which are closely monitored by authorities because of their connection to power prices and local livelihoods – rather than coking coal, which is used to make steel.
Coal mines that are part of the capacity reserve system must be able to dispatch output when authorities deem prices to have exceeded a “reasonable” range or when supplies are tight. These mines would also no longer be subject to local government requirements to sign medium- and long-term contracts with buyers.
Large scale, modern mines with good safety conditions in China’s top coal-producing regions of Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Xinjiang would be prioritised for inclusion into the coal reserve plan, according to the NDRC notice.
China is the world’s top coal consumer and producer, mining a record 4.66 billion tons last year. But the country has been concerned about energy security since a crippling domestic coal and power shortage in 2021 that prompted a probe into soaring coal prices.
Coal output is expected to stabilize this year as China ramps up renewable power and is likely to notch just 1% production growth, according to an industry group forecast.
(By Colleen Howe; Editing by Christopher Cushing and Jamie Freed)
Read More: Global coal power grew 2% last year, the most since 2016, survey says
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