The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran has deprived Hamas of one of its most astute political strategists, but analysts have identifed three main contenders for his replacement. The decision will likely impact Hamas's future identity and evolution, between becoming a guerilla group or accepting difficult political compromises.
Issued on: 31/07/2024 -
Hamas members stand next to a poster of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh during a protest to condemn his killing at al-Bass Palestinian refugee camp in the southern port city of Tyre, Lebanon, Wednesday, July 31, 2024. © Mohammed Zaatari, AP
The militant Palestinian group Hamas has a history of swift and smooth replacement of fallen leaders killed in Israeli airstrikes.
Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in the Iranian capital early Wednesday comes at a time when Hamas is under extreme pressure since the war in Gaza started nearly 10 months ago following the group's attack on southern Israel.
“We are not discussing this matter now,” a Hamas official told The Associated Press, on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, when asked about the process to replace Haniyeh.
Haniyeh headed the group's political bureau until his death. His deputy was Saleh Arouri, who was killed in an Israeli strike in Beirut in January and would have been the automatic replacement. Arouri's post remained empty since his death.
The group's Shura council, the main consultative body, is now expected to meet soon, likely after Haniyeh's funeral in Qatar, to name a new successor. The council’s membership is kept secret but represents regional chapters of the group, in Gaza, the West Bank and diaspora and those imprisoned.
One of Haniyeh’s deputies was Zaher Jabarin, who has been described as the group’s chief executive officer because of the important role he plays in managing the group’s finances, and with that, his good offices with Iran.
Hani al-Masri, an expert on Palestinian organizations, said the choice is now likely between Khaled Mashaal, a veteran Hamas official and former leader, and Khalil al-Hayya, a powerful figure within Hamas who was close to Haniyeh.
“It will not be easy,” said al-Masri, who also heads the Palestinian Center for Policy and Research and Strategic Studies.
Hamas’ new political leader will have to decide on whether to continue the military option, and become essentially a guerrilla and underground group, or choose a leader that can offer political compromises — an unlikely option at this stage.
Mashaal has political and diplomatic experience, but his relations with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah have soured over his support for Arab protests in 2011. When he was in Lebanon in 2021, Hezbollah leaders reportedly refused to meet with him. But Mashaal has good relations with Turkey and Qatar and is considered a more moderate figure who headed the group until 2017. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas called him on Saturday to offer his condolences for the killing of Haniyeh.
Yahya Sinwar, the powerful Hamas figure leading the war in Gaza, is at the opposite end of that spectrum and is unlikely to support Mashaal’s leadership.
Al-Hayya is considered close to Haniyeh, a prominent leader living in exile and originally from Gaza, with important international connections and good relations with the military wing as well as with Iran and Turkey.
After years of cold relations with the Iran-led “axis of resistance” over Hamas’s backing the opposition against Syrian President Bashar Assad during Syria’s conflict that began in March 2011, Hamas began mending its relations with Iran and reconciled with Assad.
Al-Hayya headed a delegation that went to Syria in 2022 and met Assad. Al-Hayya also has good relations with Iran, Turkey and Hezbollah.
“He is like Haniyeh, who was balanced and flexible and both sides didn’t see his leadership as problematic,” al-Masri said.
Read moreWho’s who: Top Hamas leaders on Israel’s radar
The role of the group’s leader is important in maintaining relations with Hamas’ allies outside the Palestinian territories and the choice is likely to be influenced by the group’s choices in the coming days.
Al-Masri said any choice will have to be temporary until elections in the political bureau which were supposed to take place this year but have been derailed by the war.
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The Hamas leadership meeting may also be complicated by efforts to reach Sinwar, who remains influential and will be consulted on the choice.
With cease-fire talks faltering, Israel's strategy so far appeared to have left the group with a few options now: surrender or continue war.
A third possible contender, said al-Masri, is Nizar Abu Ramadan, who had challenged Sinwar for the role of Gaza chief, and is considered close to Mashaal.
The war in Gaza started on Oct.7 after the Hamas attack that killed some 1,200 people. The group also took 250 others hostage. Israel’s retaliatory operation has obliterated entire neighborhoods in Gaza and forced some 80% of the population to flee their homes. Over 39,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry which doesn’t distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.
(AP)
Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas political leader and ex-Palestinian PM
Tehran (AFP) – Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in an Israeli strike in Iran, was the head of Hamas's political wing and a former Palestinian prime minister whose membership of the Islamist militant group dated back to its inception.
Issued on: 31/07/2024 -
Hamas announced his death on Wednesday, saying in a statement: "Brother, leader, mujahid Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the movement, died in a Zionist strike on his residence in Tehran after he participated in the inauguration of the new (Iranian) president."
Considered a pragmatist within Hamas and known for his calm demeanour, Haniyeh was born in 1963 in Gaza's Al-Shati refugee camp to a family that had to flee Ashkelon, several kilometres (miles) north of the territory, during the creation of Israel 15 years earlier.
In his youth he was a member of the student branch of the Muslim Brotherhood at the Islamic University of Gaza, and joined Hamas in 1987 when the group was founded after the outbreak of the first Palestinian intifada, or uprising, against Israeli occupation, which lasted until 1993.
During that time Haniyeh was imprisoned by Israel several times and then expelled to south Lebanon for six months.
In 2003, Haniyeh and Hamas’s founder and spiritual leader Sheikh Ahmad Yassin survived an assassination attempt together, emerging alive from a house on which an Israeli aircraft had dropped a bomb. Yassin was killed a year later.
Former Palestinian PM
Haniyeh was elected head of the Hamas political bureau in 2017 to succeed Khaled Meshaal, but was already a well-known figure after becoming Palestinian prime minister in 2006 following an upset victory by Hamas in that year's parliamentary election.
However, the fragile power-sharing arrangement with the Fatah movement of Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas soon ruptured, and Hamas took full control of the Gaza Strip in 2007 after violently ousting the president's loyalists.
Haniyeh was said to have maintained good relations with the heads of the various Palestinian factions, including rivals to Hamas.
Following his death, president Abbas condemned the killing as a "cowardly act and a serious escalation", and urged Palestinians to remain united against Israel.
More recently, Haniyeh had lived in exile and split his time between Turkey and Qatar.
In footage broadcast by Hamas-linked media after the group's October 7 attack on Israel, Haniyeh was seen watching images on television of the unfolding assault before joining other Hamas leaders in a prayer to "thank Allah for this victory".
The attack resulted in the deaths of 1,197 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.
Militants also seized 251 hostages, 111 of whom are still held captive in Gaza, including 39 the military says are dead.
Israel's retaliatory military campaign in Gaza has killed at least 39,400 people, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory, which does not provide details on civilian and militant deaths.
An Israeli strike on the Haniyeh family home in Al-Shati killed 10 people in June, including his sister, civil defence officials said, while three of his sons and four of his grandchildren were also killed in an Israeli strike in April.
Haniyeh at the time said that about 60 members of his family had been killed since the war broke out.
The war has left vast swathes of Gaza in ruins and triggered a humanitarian crisis.
Haniyeh had travelled on multiple diplomatic missions since the fighting broke out.
At the time of his death, he was in Tehran to attend Tuesday's swearing-in ceremony for President Masoud Pezeshkian. While there, he met with Pezeshkian as well as supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Following a strike in Lebanon in January that killed Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Aruri, Haniyeh gave a televised address in which he said: "A movement whose leaders and founders fall as martyrs for the dignity of our people and our nation will never be defeated."
© 2024 AFP
Tehran (AFP) – Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in an Israeli strike in Iran, was the head of Hamas's political wing and a former Palestinian prime minister whose membership of the Islamist militant group dated back to its inception.
Issued on: 31/07/2024 -
Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, seen here with Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was a frequent visit to Tehran, where he was killed in a Israeli strike
Hamas announced his death on Wednesday, saying in a statement: "Brother, leader, mujahid Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the movement, died in a Zionist strike on his residence in Tehran after he participated in the inauguration of the new (Iranian) president."
Considered a pragmatist within Hamas and known for his calm demeanour, Haniyeh was born in 1963 in Gaza's Al-Shati refugee camp to a family that had to flee Ashkelon, several kilometres (miles) north of the territory, during the creation of Israel 15 years earlier.
In his youth he was a member of the student branch of the Muslim Brotherhood at the Islamic University of Gaza, and joined Hamas in 1987 when the group was founded after the outbreak of the first Palestinian intifada, or uprising, against Israeli occupation, which lasted until 1993.
During that time Haniyeh was imprisoned by Israel several times and then expelled to south Lebanon for six months.
In 2003, Haniyeh and Hamas’s founder and spiritual leader Sheikh Ahmad Yassin survived an assassination attempt together, emerging alive from a house on which an Israeli aircraft had dropped a bomb. Yassin was killed a year later.
Former Palestinian PM
Haniyeh was elected head of the Hamas political bureau in 2017 to succeed Khaled Meshaal, but was already a well-known figure after becoming Palestinian prime minister in 2006 following an upset victory by Hamas in that year's parliamentary election.
After Hamas's sweeping victory in Palestinian parliamentary elections in 2006, Haniyeh became prime minister in an uncomfortable power-sharing administration with its defeated rival Fatah
However, the fragile power-sharing arrangement with the Fatah movement of Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas soon ruptured, and Hamas took full control of the Gaza Strip in 2007 after violently ousting the president's loyalists.
Haniyeh was said to have maintained good relations with the heads of the various Palestinian factions, including rivals to Hamas.
Following his death, president Abbas condemned the killing as a "cowardly act and a serious escalation", and urged Palestinians to remain united against Israel.
More recently, Haniyeh had lived in exile and split his time between Turkey and Qatar.
In footage broadcast by Hamas-linked media after the group's October 7 attack on Israel, Haniyeh was seen watching images on television of the unfolding assault before joining other Hamas leaders in a prayer to "thank Allah for this victory".
The attack resulted in the deaths of 1,197 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.
Militants also seized 251 hostages, 111 of whom are still held captive in Gaza, including 39 the military says are dead.
Israel's retaliatory military campaign in Gaza has killed at least 39,400 people, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory, which does not provide details on civilian and militant deaths.
An Israeli strike on the Haniyeh family home in Al-Shati killed 10 people in June, including his sister, civil defence officials said, while three of his sons and four of his grandchildren were also killed in an Israeli strike in April.
Haniyeh at the time said that about 60 members of his family had been killed since the war broke out.
The war has left vast swathes of Gaza in ruins and triggered a humanitarian crisis.
Haniyeh had travelled on multiple diplomatic missions since the fighting broke out.
At the time of his death, he was in Tehran to attend Tuesday's swearing-in ceremony for President Masoud Pezeshkian. While there, he met with Pezeshkian as well as supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Following a strike in Lebanon in January that killed Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Aruri, Haniyeh gave a televised address in which he said: "A movement whose leaders and founders fall as martyrs for the dignity of our people and our nation will never be defeated."
© 2024 AFP
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