THE RUSSIAN VIEW
The Destructive Effects of NATO’s Drive to Be Present in the South Caucasus
10.09.2024
Alibeman Eghbali Zarch
© Sputnik/Denis Aslanov
A new phase of cold and soft war has begun in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia; a shifting of the power puzzle’s role. If some regional powers move to change their borders, it will have dangerous regional implications in the third millennium, Alibeman Eghbali Zarch writes.
The world of politics has entered a new stage, which, like the growth of technology, has accelerated political changes and security developments. The international arena is involved in numerous and diverse crises, including the genocide in Gaza and the war in Ukraine, which is mainly focused on Eurasia. In the Caucasus region, new developments began in 2021 with Azerbaijan’s military operations against Armenia; the ultimate goal in this competition between the Turkish-Azerbaijani axis and Armenia is to have a greater share in dominating the Eurasian region, which has geopolitical and geo-economic importance. Also, in the fall of 2023, the forces of the Republic of Azerbaijan captured the Karabakh region, and tens of thousands of Armenians were forced to migrate to Armenia. Now, the negotiations between the parties to hand over four villages to Azerbaijan are in their final stages.
In the new situation, where we are witnessing the emergence of signs of a new hot and cold war between the West and Russia, Central Asia and the South Caucasus are an important focus for the parties. However, for the US and Israel, along with France and Britain, the 3+3 format Caucasian peace talks were unacceptable because they could have led to the realisation of sustainable peace and, ultimately, blocked their interventionist path in Central Asian equations, preventing NATO from having a presence in the area. Thus, although their official position after the meeting was to support peace and stability in the region, in practice they work to disrupt the agreements reached at the Tehran summit or to pursue paths that can have political-economic and geopolitical consequences for Iran akin to those of the Zangezur Corridor.
The Russians are trying to increase their role and capabilities in the region in competition with the US, Turkey, and even China, and in a full-scale way, monitor the movements of neighbouring countries that are close to NATO. Of course, each of these countries has declared that its goals are to provide security and deal with terrorism, immigration, etc. In fact, it should be said that a new phase of cold and soft war has begun in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia; a shifting of the power puzzle’s role. If some regional powers move to change their borders, it will have dangerous regional implications in the third millennium.
On the one hand, the Russians generally believe that the region should not become the main focus and centre of NATO’s movements. On the other hand, NATO, the US, and other Western countries also believe that if they do not enter the region, Turkey and Russia will use their basic levers, including economic and energy capacities, to put more pressure on these countries and develop local influence. However, the Caucasus and Central Asia region, being at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, wants to become one of the centres of the modern world structure, especially when it comes to the two vital issues of energy transfer and the fight against terrorism.
Of course, this region has many latent crises, such as border disputes between countries, which have lent weight to separatist activity. Dealing with these crises and achieving a long-term solution that provides for the interests of all parties is one of the priorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran, other regional powers and even the European Union’s foreign policy officials.
Under the new circumstances, the main victims will be the nations and countries of the region, although it must be remembered that if Azerbaijan, Armenia, and other nearby countries have strong governance and their leaders are both tactful and politically sufficient, they can easily prevent huge and devastating disasters.
The developments in the region have attracted the attention of important powers, including the Euro-Atlantic axis, and the European Union knows very well that its interests will depend more and more on Asian and European countries in the coming decades. At the same time, the EU has already attempted to reduce tension in this regard, including hosting several rounds of Azeri-Armenian negotiations in Brussels with the mediation of the EU’s top foreign policy official.
French President Emmanuel Macron has also continued his diplomatic efforts to prevent the escalation of tension between Baku and Yerevan and has spoken with the leaders of both sides. However, France, as a major military and diplomatic power of the European Union, has many motivations to be active in the Central Asia and Caucasus region. Given France’s position as a world power and its role in the discussion of strategic arrangements on the eastern borders of the EU, it cannot remain indifferent to such a crisis, especially since these two countries are located at the gates of Europe and in the vicinity of Russia and Iran. It is no secret that the South Caucasus is one of the priorities of France’s foreign policy and security. It is believed that this region should be linked to the EU through the signing of a stability agreement because it cannot witness an unstable region on its borders for an indefinite period. The South Caucasus is a meeting point of geopolitical and energy interests, as well as a region of conflict between the US, Russia, Turkey, and Iran.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the Americans have long been trying to suddenly enter like a Hollywood hero after creating crises and wars in different regions of the world and narrowing the field, even at the expense of their friends and partners, and in this way increase their sphere of influence. Amid last year’s conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States visited Yerevan and supported Armenia’s position. In a way, he repeated the artificial scenario of his predecessor’s trip to Taiwan, by announcing the existence for Ankara and Moscow.
In this sensitive situation, it should be acknowledged that the countries of the Caucasus region and Central Asia, willy-nilly or not, are experiencing a sensitive period that has made their interests a scapegoat of foreign powers, especially Turkey, France, the US, Israel, and the West. Certainly, the recent developments will have little results for the people of the region, or at least no country will “win” as a result of the recent events.
At the same time, the leaders of small countries in the region should know that based on the historical experience of the 20th and 21st centuries, the great powers, especially NATO leaders, often find a way to agree in difficult situations and usually sacrifice the interests of small countries for their own goals and interests. Although the conditions for such a scapegoat are now very difficult, historical experience says that the smart leaders of the surrounding countries should act in such a way that they do not become the scapegoat of the great powers.
There is a geopolitical struggle underway for control over Eurasia, which has enormous potential, especially in light of the role played by China and Russia. This approach involved the activation of Ukraine for Russia, Taiwan for China, and sanctions against Iran. Both Iran and Russia oppose NATO expansion to the east, as they believe there isn’t any rational reason for it. Under its 13th government, the Islamic Republic of Iran has made significant political and economic moves in the region. While increasing the number of economic and political exchanges as well as meetings between leaders, Tehran confirms that it will continue to maintain a balanced position of active neutrality, with the aim of actively consulting with the leaders of the countries of the region and strengthening comprehensive cooperation.
In short, solving the problems of the countries of the region necessitates rational and competent governance; in addition to closely monitoring developments and adopting appropriate and timely positions, the important approach of encouraging the parties to resolve their border and territorial disputes, with a focus on negotiation and the observation of conventions and international regulations, should be at the forefront of affairs. If progress and excellence in the region are to be achieved, a stable peace must be established, as well as mutual trust with collective participation. The last words refer to the guidelines of the Supreme Leader regarding the impossibility of accepting any changes in the geostrategic nature of the region or changing borders and communication routes, which have existed for several millennia.
© Sputnik/Denis Aslanov
A new phase of cold and soft war has begun in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia; a shifting of the power puzzle’s role. If some regional powers move to change their borders, it will have dangerous regional implications in the third millennium, Alibeman Eghbali Zarch writes.
The world of politics has entered a new stage, which, like the growth of technology, has accelerated political changes and security developments. The international arena is involved in numerous and diverse crises, including the genocide in Gaza and the war in Ukraine, which is mainly focused on Eurasia. In the Caucasus region, new developments began in 2021 with Azerbaijan’s military operations against Armenia; the ultimate goal in this competition between the Turkish-Azerbaijani axis and Armenia is to have a greater share in dominating the Eurasian region, which has geopolitical and geo-economic importance. Also, in the fall of 2023, the forces of the Republic of Azerbaijan captured the Karabakh region, and tens of thousands of Armenians were forced to migrate to Armenia. Now, the negotiations between the parties to hand over four villages to Azerbaijan are in their final stages.
In the new situation, where we are witnessing the emergence of signs of a new hot and cold war between the West and Russia, Central Asia and the South Caucasus are an important focus for the parties. However, for the US and Israel, along with France and Britain, the 3+3 format Caucasian peace talks were unacceptable because they could have led to the realisation of sustainable peace and, ultimately, blocked their interventionist path in Central Asian equations, preventing NATO from having a presence in the area. Thus, although their official position after the meeting was to support peace and stability in the region, in practice they work to disrupt the agreements reached at the Tehran summit or to pursue paths that can have political-economic and geopolitical consequences for Iran akin to those of the Zangezur Corridor.
The Russians are trying to increase their role and capabilities in the region in competition with the US, Turkey, and even China, and in a full-scale way, monitor the movements of neighbouring countries that are close to NATO. Of course, each of these countries has declared that its goals are to provide security and deal with terrorism, immigration, etc. In fact, it should be said that a new phase of cold and soft war has begun in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia; a shifting of the power puzzle’s role. If some regional powers move to change their borders, it will have dangerous regional implications in the third millennium.
On the one hand, the Russians generally believe that the region should not become the main focus and centre of NATO’s movements. On the other hand, NATO, the US, and other Western countries also believe that if they do not enter the region, Turkey and Russia will use their basic levers, including economic and energy capacities, to put more pressure on these countries and develop local influence. However, the Caucasus and Central Asia region, being at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, wants to become one of the centres of the modern world structure, especially when it comes to the two vital issues of energy transfer and the fight against terrorism.
Of course, this region has many latent crises, such as border disputes between countries, which have lent weight to separatist activity. Dealing with these crises and achieving a long-term solution that provides for the interests of all parties is one of the priorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran, other regional powers and even the European Union’s foreign policy officials.
Under the new circumstances, the main victims will be the nations and countries of the region, although it must be remembered that if Azerbaijan, Armenia, and other nearby countries have strong governance and their leaders are both tactful and politically sufficient, they can easily prevent huge and devastating disasters.
The developments in the region have attracted the attention of important powers, including the Euro-Atlantic axis, and the European Union knows very well that its interests will depend more and more on Asian and European countries in the coming decades. At the same time, the EU has already attempted to reduce tension in this regard, including hosting several rounds of Azeri-Armenian negotiations in Brussels with the mediation of the EU’s top foreign policy official.
French President Emmanuel Macron has also continued his diplomatic efforts to prevent the escalation of tension between Baku and Yerevan and has spoken with the leaders of both sides. However, France, as a major military and diplomatic power of the European Union, has many motivations to be active in the Central Asia and Caucasus region. Given France’s position as a world power and its role in the discussion of strategic arrangements on the eastern borders of the EU, it cannot remain indifferent to such a crisis, especially since these two countries are located at the gates of Europe and in the vicinity of Russia and Iran. It is no secret that the South Caucasus is one of the priorities of France’s foreign policy and security. It is believed that this region should be linked to the EU through the signing of a stability agreement because it cannot witness an unstable region on its borders for an indefinite period. The South Caucasus is a meeting point of geopolitical and energy interests, as well as a region of conflict between the US, Russia, Turkey, and Iran.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the Americans have long been trying to suddenly enter like a Hollywood hero after creating crises and wars in different regions of the world and narrowing the field, even at the expense of their friends and partners, and in this way increase their sphere of influence. Amid last year’s conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States visited Yerevan and supported Armenia’s position. In a way, he repeated the artificial scenario of his predecessor’s trip to Taiwan, by announcing the existence for Ankara and Moscow.
In this sensitive situation, it should be acknowledged that the countries of the Caucasus region and Central Asia, willy-nilly or not, are experiencing a sensitive period that has made their interests a scapegoat of foreign powers, especially Turkey, France, the US, Israel, and the West. Certainly, the recent developments will have little results for the people of the region, or at least no country will “win” as a result of the recent events.
At the same time, the leaders of small countries in the region should know that based on the historical experience of the 20th and 21st centuries, the great powers, especially NATO leaders, often find a way to agree in difficult situations and usually sacrifice the interests of small countries for their own goals and interests. Although the conditions for such a scapegoat are now very difficult, historical experience says that the smart leaders of the surrounding countries should act in such a way that they do not become the scapegoat of the great powers.
There is a geopolitical struggle underway for control over Eurasia, which has enormous potential, especially in light of the role played by China and Russia. This approach involved the activation of Ukraine for Russia, Taiwan for China, and sanctions against Iran. Both Iran and Russia oppose NATO expansion to the east, as they believe there isn’t any rational reason for it. Under its 13th government, the Islamic Republic of Iran has made significant political and economic moves in the region. While increasing the number of economic and political exchanges as well as meetings between leaders, Tehran confirms that it will continue to maintain a balanced position of active neutrality, with the aim of actively consulting with the leaders of the countries of the region and strengthening comprehensive cooperation.
In short, solving the problems of the countries of the region necessitates rational and competent governance; in addition to closely monitoring developments and adopting appropriate and timely positions, the important approach of encouraging the parties to resolve their border and territorial disputes, with a focus on negotiation and the observation of conventions and international regulations, should be at the forefront of affairs. If progress and excellence in the region are to be achieved, a stable peace must be established, as well as mutual trust with collective participation. The last words refer to the guidelines of the Supreme Leader regarding the impossibility of accepting any changes in the geostrategic nature of the region or changing borders and communication routes, which have existed for several millennia.
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