OUTLAW DEEP SEA MINING

Investors Seem Ready To Go All-In on Deep Sea Mining

By Alex Kimani - Jul 31, 2025

• President Trump’s April executive order aims to accelerate U.S. deep-sea mining, stockpile critical minerals, and reduce reliance on China for rare earths and battery metals.

• Companies like TMC The Metals Company are seeing a surge in investor interest, with plans to mine polymetallic nodules rich in cobalt, nickel, and manganese.
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• Significant hurdles remain, including extreme deep-sea conditions, lack of international mining standards, and strong environmental opposition to potential ocean floor biodiversity loss.

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Back in April, we reported that U.S. President Donald Trump signed a key executive order without much fanfare, aiming to boost the country’s deep-sea mining industry as well as enable the stockpiling of deep-sea metals in a bid to counter China's dominance in rare earths and battery minerals supply chains. The order redirected his administration to expedite mining permits under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act and also streamline permit issuance for the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf.

The administration is also required to work with U.S. allies to explore ways to share resources in international waters.

Proponents of the order have argued that ramping up deep-sea mining would lower the country’s reliance on large mining operations on land, often considered an environmental hazard.

“We want the US to get ahead of China in this resource space under the ocean, on the ocean bottom,” a Trump official said during the signing.

The Pacific Ocean floor is thought to contain large amounts of polymetallic nodules-- potato-shaped rocks filled with critical minerals including nickel, manganese, copper and other minerals essential in a wide array of industries, including renewable energy, electric vehicles, electronics, defense, and advanced manufacturing.

It’s estimated that U.S. territorial waters harbour more than 1 billion metric tons of these nodules, and extracting them could boost the country’s GDP by $300 billion over 10 years and also create 100,000 jobs. 

Related: U.S. Crude Oil Output Set New Record in May: EIA

Whereas any country can engage in mining in its own territorial waters, the United Nations’ International Seabed Authority is yet to formalize standards for mining in international waters. However, that has not stopped scores of companies from lining up to mine U.S. waters. 

Two months ago, California-based deep-sea mining pioneer Impossible Metals requested the U.S. Department of the Interior's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) to initiate a commercial auction for mineral leases in the deep sea off the coast of American Samoa. This request pertains to polymetallic nodules containing critical minerals like cobalt, lithium, and nickel. If approved, this would be the first competitive lease sale BOEM has conducted since 1991. 

And, investors are licking their chops at the prospects of raking in deep sea mining profits. Shares of Vancouver, Canada-based TMC The Metals Company Inc. (NASDAQ:TMC) surged more than 40% after Trump put pen on paper, with the shares now up 450% over the past 52 weeks. Wall Street remains optimistic that TMC has further room to run:

Last month, Wedbush upgraded the deep sea mining company to Outperform with an $11 price target,  good for more than 100% upside from the current price. Wedbush's Daniel Ives cited increased confidence in TMC’s growth prospects following Trump's executive order in April. Further, Ives pointed out that General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) recently announced plans to shift towards Lithium-Manganese-Rich (LMR) battery technology for their future electric vehicles, moving away from the conventional Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) technology. GM plans to start producing LMR batteries in 2028, while Ford is also actively working on integrating LMR into its future vehicle lineup. TMC's polymetallic seafloor nodules feature increased manganese vs. LFP batteries.

"Overall, we believe that TMC is well-positioned to be a key player in the critical metal supply chain due to its first-mover advantage in deep sea mining while also receiving significant U.S. support as it looks to reduce its dependency on China in the global supply of critical rare earth minerals," Ives wrote.

Other companies eyeing deep-sea mining include Russia's JSC Yuzhmorgeologiya, China Minmetals, Blue Minerals Jamaica and Kiribati’s Marawa Research and Exploration. 

However, making deep-sea mining a commercial reality is bound to be fraught with challenges. First off, developers will need to figure out how to create machines that can operate efficiently at the crazy pressures that exist 5,000 metres or more below the ocean’s surface. They will also need to develop new processing systems that can effectively separate the mixed minerals found in polymetallic nodules. However, the experts believe that creating a suitable and effective regulatory environment is likely to be the biggest challenge.

A big reason why the International Seabed Authority is yet to create deep-sea mining standards is due to unresolved differences over acceptable levels of various parameters such as dust, noise and other factors by different countries.

Opposition by environmental groups has also been a big challenge for the ISA, with several NGOs campaigning strongly against deep-sea mining, saying industrial operations on the ocean floor are likely to lead to irreversible biodiversity loss.  Further, the U.S. has not ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which includes the International Seabed Authority (ISA). The U.S. has, instead, developed its own domestic regulatory regime for deep-sea mining activities.

So far, the ISA remains underfunded and under-capacitated, curtailing its ability to monitor mining sites and respond quickly to environmental crises. Whether or not the organization, as well as various other stakeholders, will finally be able to get their act together and successfully launch an industry that has remained just-around-the-corner for three decades now remains to be seen.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com