Gaza is now trapped in the limbo of the uncertainty surrounding the Trump plan. The U.S. might prevent Netanyahu from resuming Israel’s genocide, but unless Palestinians gain full control over Gaza’s future, it’s just a slower form of killing.
October 25, 2025
MONDOWEISS
President Donald Trump is greeted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and others after disembarking Air Force One at Ben Gurion International Airport in Israel, Monday, October 13, 2025, to celebrate the U.S.-brokered ceasefire and hostage release agreement between Israel and Hamas. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
On Tuesday, Israeli military sources announced that, in their estimation, Hamas still has some 20-25,000 fighters, although many of them are new recruits who are not well trained. They also said Hamas still has “hundreds” of rockets, although the majority of Hamas’ arsenal is said to have been destroyed.
Retired General Giora Eiland, who still has a significant position in Israel’s military hierarchy, added that the tunnel network in Gaza is still some 80% intact.
If these estimates are true, and that is far from clear, it’s either an admission of grave failure by Israel or an admission that destroying Hamas was never the point of the genocide that Israel has committed over the past two years. Or, possibly, both.
On Tuesday, Israeli military sources announced that, in their estimation, Hamas still has some 20-25,000 fighters, although many of them are new recruits who are not well trained. They also said Hamas still has “hundreds” of rockets, although the majority of Hamas’ arsenal is said to have been destroyed.
Retired General Giora Eiland, who still has a significant position in Israel’s military hierarchy, added that the tunnel network in Gaza is still some 80% intact.
If these estimates are true, and that is far from clear, it’s either an admission of grave failure by Israel or an admission that destroying Hamas was never the point of the genocide that Israel has committed over the past two years. Or, possibly, both.
These statements are meant to arouse a feeling in Washington and in Israel that the “job” is not yet finished and Israel must be allowed to resume its genocide.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been squirming under the weight of President Donald Trump’s imposed ceasefire since it began, even while he has been forced to present a smiling public face about it.
Netanyahu’s immediate strategy is to require Trump to keep full pressure on Israel to maintain the “ceasefire.” He is doing this with a steady stream of provocative and deadly actions. He is allowing some aid into Gaza, but not nearly enough. Israel continues to work at provoking Palestinian responses with targeted attacks and provocative actions.
On Sunday, Israel suffered losses in the Rafah area under disputed circumstances. The United States allowed some response, but sharply limited it, preventing Israel from using the incident as an excuse for abandoning the ceasefire deal.
Lest anyone mistake the Trump administration’s actions for beneficence, there was complete silence from Washington the previous day, when Israeli forces fired on a Palestinian civilian vehicle near Gaza City, wiping out a family of eleven, including seven children.
Trump has continued to accuse Hamas of breaching the ceasefire, while ignoring Israel’s actions, which have thus far led to over 100 Palestinian deaths in Gaza since the ceasefire began.
But even while Trump has continued to issue empty threats against Hamas, his administration’s actions have been aimed at restraining Israel. The dispatch of Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, followed by Vice President JD Vance, and now Secretary of State Marco Rubio has had the effect of making sure that Israel is aware that the U.S. is watching and is not prepared to see this ceasefire collapse.
In a very telling episode, the Knesset voted to annex major chunks of the West Bank while Vance was in the country. This drew a sharp rebuke from the Vice President and a panicked response from Netanyahu. It is a stark contrast to Joe Biden’s meek response more than a decade ago when he visited Israel and the government announced a major new settlement while he was there. President Barack Obama was quite upset by the incident, but Biden wanted to ignore it.
Trump on Thursday warned Israel that the U.S. would no longer support Israel if it annexed the West Bank. But for Gaza, this isn’t a sustainable position. Trump is not going to maintain this kind of pressure indefinitely. He has put the annexation question to bed for some time (which just means that Israel will simply go on with its gradual annexation of the West Bank rather than the dramatic move of a formal annexation), but Gaza will require much longer-term engagement. More importantly, Trump’s “20-Point Plan” faces serious obstacles, and they are of a type that is very likely to result in the U.S. administration becoming frustrated with Hamas more than with Israel.
The danger of Hamas’ “Yes, but…”
Hamas made it clear when it agreed to the ceasefire that it was not agreeing to all of Trump’s plan. All parties understood that.
Hamas’ recent activities, mobilizing against Israeli-backed Palestinian clan militias, have been routinely mischaracterized, portraying them as executions of Palestinian civilians virtually at random. Given that these are summary executions without the benefit of a legal system, it is likely there are injustices, including deadly ones, being committed. But it’s far from the rampant killing that is being portrayed.
That mischaracterization is not an accident; it is an intentional distortion to keep open an avenue for Israel to use to resume its full-fledged genocide, and the United States is going along with it.
Some are also characterizing Hamas’ actions as a bid to re-establish permanent control over Gaza. It may seem like it, but Hamas is unlikely to be that naïve. They know very well that there is an international consensus that wants to see them completely outside of power in Gaza, and, if possible, even physically removed from Palestine. That’s not just an Israeli and American view; it is shared by Trump’s Arab partners.
Hamas knows this, and has repeatedly indicated a willingness to cede power in Gaza. But they are not unconditional in that willingness.
They want to cede that power to Palestinians, not to Trump or Israel. They expect a technocratic government of Palestinians in Gaza, which would eventually lead to new elections there. It’s hardly an unreasonable stance.
Hamas has also indicated a willingness to give up its offensive weapons in exchange for peace. Their desire to keep handguns and means of personal protection is not something they can compromise on; if they give those up, they will be targeted by the very militias they are currently rounding up. These weapons are not going to be particularly useful if Israel decides to come after them, but they can be used to defend against rogue Palestinians.
These are difficult issues, as is the question of Palestinian autonomy and self-rule and how Trump’s plan can lead to Palestinians attaining their inalienable rights (spoiler alert: it can’t). That’s why Israel, the United States, and, yes, Hamas as well are laying the narrative groundwork for failure.
Where Gaza goes in a post-Trump Plan world
Trump has a vested interest in seeing the ceasefire endure, but what does that mean in practice?
Neither Trump nor Netanyahu is going to be willing to allow Palestinians to govern themselves, even as technocrats. Without that, there will continue to be resistance. It’s that simple.
Some limited rebuilding might be contemplated, but right now, that is being used as a tool to force Hamas to comply with Trump’s demands for their disarmament and disbandment. Jared Kushner made that clear, explicitly stating that any reconstruction efforts would be concentrated in the area of Gaza that remains under Israeli control.
Yet as much as Netanyahu would like to return to the all-out slaughter, he is not going to risk Trump’s wrath to do it. But in the meantime Gaza is likely to be trapped in a nightmarish middle ground between genocide and a functioning future.
Israel will not tolerate any security role in Gaza for Türkiye, as Trump has floated. They’d much prefer that both security and governing forces in Gaza be led by the U.S. or, short of that, more pliant Muslim countries such as Indonesia and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is perhaps Israel’s closest, if one of its quietest, allies in the Muslim world. Trump has already secured the participation of Indonesia and is working on Azerbaijan.
But with such uneven reconstruction, there will be real difficulties even if Israel can be persuaded to allow humanitarian aid—which would need to include temporary shelters, construction materials and machinery, blankets, food, water, and medical supplies—into Gaza in sufficient quantities.
Gaza is now caught in the netherworld of the uncertainty of the Trump plan. While Vice President Vance says the ceasefire is “going better than expected,” it is not going anywhere for the people of Gaza.
Vance was remarking on how Israel is “complying” with Trump’s directives. That is, they are not killing so many Palestinians or doing so much shooting that the ostensible ceasefire would collapse.
But autumn is soon going to turn to winter in Gaza. There are insufficient shelters for most of the people, inadequate supplies of food and water, few heat sources, and limited means to address these issues in the short time allotted.
Hamas will continue to assert itself as the only feasible authority in Gaza, making its bargaining position stronger, and thus strengthening Netanyahu’s case for sterner measures.
The Trump administration has not even decided for itself how it wants to see humanitarian aid delivered, as it is unclear how much leeway the United Nations and other humanitarian aid organizations will be given in Gaza. What is clear is that they do not yet have sufficient freedom to act in the impactful way that is needed.
The International Court of Justice’s advisory opinion, issued on Wednesday, provoked an hysterical response from Washington, as it ordered Israel to cooperate with all UN agencies, including the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), which Israel has falsely accused of supporting Hamas and encouraging attacks on Israel.
“As President Trump and Secretary Rubio work tirelessly to bring peace to the region, this so-called ‘court’ issues a nakedly politicized non-binding ‘advisory opinion’ unfairly bashes Israel and gives UNRWA a free pass for its deep entanglement with and material support for Hamas terrorism,” the State Department wrote on Twitter.
All of this leaves the people of Gaza facing a different kind of hardship. There doesn’t seem to be any immediate rush to deploy an international force that would lead to a further Israeli withdrawal and enhanced efforts to clear the massive amounts of rubble. Without that necessary first step, reconstruction cannot truly begin in a sustainable way.
The population is cold, hungry, and facing unprecedented health crises that will go on for many years, according to the World Health Organization. While diplomats bicker, those conditions worsen.
As things stand, there are likely to be many more opportunities for Israel to try to increase its military activities in the Strip. They seem to be continuing their practice of arming and paying Palestinian militias to sow chaos in the Strip. This also provides an indirect pipeline for Hamas and other Palestinian factions fighting against these militias to acquire Israeli weapons and supplies after defeating various branches of these militias.
Trump might prevent Netanyahu from returning to the full force of Israel’s two-year genocide, and that is still a real positive. But what the people of Gaza are facing now, with so many unanswered questions about how the Strip is to be managed, fed, supplied, and secured, carries with it its own set of threats.
It’s better than the genocide that was, but unless Palestinians are given full access to their own decisions and the tools they need to rebuild and survive until Gaza is rebuilt, it’s just a slower kind of killing.
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