US records first negative net migration in at least 50 years: Report

Decline driven by sharp drop in arrivals rather than removals, researchers find

Seyit Kurt |15.01.2026 - TRT/AA



ISTANBUL

The US recorded negative net migration in 2025 for the first time in at least 50 years, driven largely by a sharp decline in entries amid tightened immigration policies, according to a report released on Tuesday by the Brookings Institution.

The study estimated net migration fell by between 10,000 and 295,000, marking a reversal after decades of immigration-driven population growth. Researchers said heightened enforcement and policy uncertainty under the Trump administration were key factors.

While the administration has emphasized removals as part of its immigration crackdown, the report said the decline was primarily the result of fewer people entering the country. The authors attributed the shift to reduced admissions, increased enforcement activity and higher levels of voluntary departures.

The analysis said the suspension of many humanitarian programs, including most refugee admissions, along with a drop in temporary visas, contributed significantly to the downturn. Removals in 2025 were estimated at between 310,000 and 315,000, only modestly higher than the roughly 285,000 removals estimated for 2024, the report said.

That estimate is substantially lower than figures cited by Department of Homeland Security officials, who have said more than 600,000 people have been removed during the enforcement campaign, according to ABC News. The agency did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The report also found that, unlike the previous year, most removals were initiated by US Customs and Border Protection rather than Immigration and Customs Enforcement, despite heightened public attention on ICE activity.

Negative net migration is likely to continue into 2026, the authors said. They projected an increase in removals as new funding becomes available under legislation approved by President Donald Trump, which they said would expand enforcement capacity through additional staffing and infrastructure.