Monday, January 04, 2021



ERICA LAGALISSE'S BLOG

The Conspiracy of Kings, Class War and the Coronavirus


By Dog Section Press

Erica Lagalisse interviews Spartacus Tonans, Supreme Magus of the Kitchen Garden 007˚, author of “Occult Features of Anarchism” (PM Press, 2019)

So, is the Coronavirus part of a great global conspiracy?

A conspiracy called capitalism. The virus doesn’t need to be manufactured by governments to serve elite interests. States intervene in pandemics not to mitigate human suffering but to consolidate their power, so it is no coincidence that governments are taking the COVID-19 pandemic as an opportunity to amplify police power, outlaw protest, and remind you to fear your neighbor. Of course, we are encouraged to live in solitary isolation, scrolling through the apocalypse, breaking only to play digital war games or watch crap porn while making Jeff Bezos rich buying shit from Amazon; however, it is also true that physical distancing will slow down the rate of infection and allow more people to survive. In regard to the politics of this new “Crown Virus”, like so many other Conspiracies of Kings, both things are true. This is the line I walk in my book.

Occult Features of Anarchism is a feminist take on anarchism, a critique of posh lefties, and the “true history of the Illuminati” all in one. How would you sum it up?

It’s a historical essay that shows how what we call “the Left” developed in complement with occult philosophy and New Age spirituality. In the hands of power, “magic” is brought to support authoritarian projects – politicians and fascists know this well. Yet if it were not for early revolutionaries mixing what they understood to be “ancient magical wisdom” with new materialist science and social discontent in new ways, we may not have seen the rise of Left revolutionary movements: Occult knowledge is adaptable to a variety of projects – pyramid schemes, levelling schemes, and pyramid schemes for levelling – we’d best not ignore it.

Can you tell us a bit more about your approach to “conspiracy theory”?

The phrase “conspiracy theorist” is code for low-class. Otherwise, university lecturers that discuss the covert operations of the CIA would also be called “conspiracy theorists”. This is worth noticing, because we need coalition-building now more than ever, and just as lefties should not write off hippie New Agers, neither should they assume that the “conspiracy theorist” must be a fascist. Of course, precisely because things can veer in this direction, it’s even more important that lefties come up with an effective way of engaging “conspiracy theorists”. In the process, we might consider the extent to which “conspiracy theory” involves valid social commentary. Some “conspiracy theories” are bonkers or blame Jews for global poverty, in which case, arguing with a fan is an important anti-racist intervention; but sometimes calling someone a “conspiracy theorist” is just class prejudice disguised by another name. Academics make their knowledge inaccessible in a variety of ways, which means that the best way people have to investigate why the world seems stacked against them is to ask the internet, which means people are going to find a lot of seductive “conspiracy theories”. I don’t think we should make fun of anyone for that. Also, the ruling class really does seem to be trying to kill us – it should be considered a fair guess.

Can you elaborate on the idea of “conspiracy theory” as critical social commentary?

Many YouTube videos tell stories of the Knights Templar finding secret treasure under Solomon’s temple in Jerusalem during the Crusades, with Illuminati-controlled Freemasons later using it to collapse the great world religions into one big banking tradition in the name of Lucifer. Yes, this story sounds different than Polanyi’s in The Great Transformation (1944), which also explains how global elites forsake traditional allegiances in the project of modern capitalist banking – social scientists will always prefer to highlight “systemic forces” rather than the whimsy of a few knights. The pop culture version is too allegorical for academic tastes but, given that many “conspiracy” buffs think banks are so bad they must be Satanic, it should be easy to see how some could become interested in anti-capitalism instead of fascism. (For academic readers, my advice in a nutshell is: replace Foucault with Bourdieu.)

Ok, getting to the good stuff: who are the Illuminati?

Once upon a time, there was the French Revolution, and all the Kings and Queens of Europe were very upset, so they formed the Holy Alliance. Known as the “Conspiracy of Kings”, it was they who pledged to cooperate in international publication bans, transnational surveillance, and deportation of militants by any sovereign threatened by “revolutionary inroads”. The Illuminati, on the other hand, started before the French revolution, and considered state and church corrupt. They criticized landlords and private property. Started by a Bavarian professor in 1776, it grew from five students to 54 members 3 years later, including people like Mozart. Members shared provocative Enlightenment ideas that are now commonplace, such as the value of science, while contemplating how to make society more egalitarian. In 1783 a member tattled to his employer and a repressive campaign began. This is the first time we hear claims made that all Freemasons are “under control” of the Illuminati – but it was the government talking then.

How has the story gotten switched around?

Partly because propagandists in the early 20th century sought to vilify Jewish people by associating them with banking and Freemasonry. There are also people in power now who gain from us ignoring capitalism and the World Trade Organization by focusing on Jews or lizardmen. The classical Art of Memory, revamped as magical practice in the Renaissance, was further re-invented within psychoanalysis and modern psychology, and is now used in the media to (mis)guide us. In fact, both mainstream news outlets as well as bros pumping out “conspiracy theory” videos employ this long-developing art of using sensational images to inspire certain mental associations and manipulate memory. We really are being fucked over by magical mind control, just not in the way some “conspiracy theorists” suggest. This is where I would suggest those suspicious of COVID-19 place their attention, by the way – the virus is authentic, but so is the dark art of Public Relations.

You explain that you write about the cosmology of anarchism to challenge atheist anarchists who look down on religious or spiritual people despite claiming to be anticolonial at every turn. But there’s got to be another story: what’s the scoop?

Well, there’s the fact that I love math. Are mathematical forms the underlying structure of the universe? Or is mathematics a language applied to an ineffable reality that always exceeds representation? It’s no coincidence that I study the history of sacred geometry in this first book, and study how activists fuck up “intersectionality” with algebra in my upcoming one – mathematics is very seductive, and not just for me. Why does symmetry impress us? To what extent is statistical thinking cultural or cognitive? Why do people love YouTube videos about the “Golden Mean” so much? Why does the Art of Memory work? Is Aby Warburg’s theory of images a form of Lamarckian evolutionism? How many triangles can I find in Hegelian philosophy? This kinda stuff is my jam. I used to draw geometrical diagrams instead of writing outlines for my term papers – I lost marks for it and was told it’s because I have “synesthesia”, some kind of mental illness. Wizard sounds better, don’t you think? Just like splitting yourself into pen names for an interview sounds better than you talking to yourself.

Erica Lagalisse is a writer, anthropologist, and postdoctoral fellow at the London School of Economics. They are the author of Occult Features of Anarchism.

lagalisse.net

@ELagalisse

Illustration by Clifford Harper  

 ERICA LAGALISSE'S BLOG

Occult Features of Anarchism— an Ignota Book of the Year

Ignota.org

Ignota friends and family choose their books of the year, Part 2! <3 Accompanying Part 1, we offer this list of books and pamphlets chosen by Ignota’s friends and family that have accompanied their journeys. MORE SELECTIONS TO COME! 

Intended also in support of the book trade, especially fellow indies, we’ve added links to Bookshop.org, which unites independent booksellers to provide an alternative to Am*zon, or directly to publishers’ websites.

I attended a lecture by Erica Lagalisse, organised by David Graeber—rest in power—at the LSE last year, and I was in awe at the rigour she applied to looking at some of the awkward questions of radical political organising. She started off with an interogation of the awkwardness of anarchists when encountering the spirituality of Indigenous groups whose struggles they had adopted, and how anarchist groups in Canada and Mexico invariably frame Indigenous struggles through a gendered distinction between the spiritual, which they would sideline as domestic, private and not politically relevant, and what could be read as secular aspects of their lives and organising, and therefore properly political. From there, she ventured into a deep investigation of the roots of anarchism in occult philosophies, which is what is covered in this fantastic but brief book. It traces the historical origins of anarchism through to the secret society of the Illuminati. It is a reminder of the true meaning of conspiracy—to conspire, breathing together—where secret societies become the brithplaces of organising and as practices of imagining new possible worlds. And this time, not described in the innocent yet arrogant terms of being the chosen ones (whether in religious or revolutionary terms), but with all the fraught and problematic historical detail of people trying to do things in relation to power.


Erica Lagalisse is an anthropologist and writer, a postdoctoral research fellow at the London School of Economics (LSE), editor of Solidarity and Care During the Covid-19 Pandemic at The Sociological Review, and author of Occult Features of Anarchism – With Attention to the Conspiracy of Kings and the Conspiracy of the Peoples (2019). She can be found on Twitter at @ELagalisse

Back to Erica Lagalisse’s Author Page




 LEO PANITCH IN MEMORIUM

PM PRESS BLOG

The convivial, practical road to socialism: a tribute to Leo Panitch

By Hilary Wainwright
Red Pepper Magazine
December 29th, 2020

December 29, 2020 · 7 min read

It is striking that the widespread grief at the untimely death of Leo Panitch is not simply for the passing of a brilliant socialist intellectual but also for the shared personal loss of a warm, kind and truly comradely human being. Leo’s influence has come as much from his spirit of generosity and conviviality as through his arguments. For him the two were inseparable.

Without implying that he was a saint, Leo lived and advocated a socialism whose appeal is exactly the conviviality and kindness that flows from mutual respect for the dignity and equality of all people, and for the social and economic conditions that can make this a universal condition. He prefigured socialism in his everyday comradeship and collaborative ways of working. It is for this reason that his many comrades now feel as though part of the foundations of our very being have been pulled from beneath us.

Leo’s characteristic ability to live his socialism was linked with his integration of theory and political practice. His recent thinking about strategy stressed the need ‘to start anew at creating the kinds of working-class political institutions which can rekindle the socialist imagination’.

It was an emphasis he reiterated in response to the defeat of the Corbyn-led Labour Party, which for Leo revealed a fundamental absence of organised forces behind the leadership’s radical socialist policies. His argument came from both a theoretical understanding of the unequal balance of power and from practical experience of the difficulties and necessities of rebuilding a politically conscious working-class organisation – as distinct from merely obtaining the official support of individual trade union leaders.

The development of Leo’s theoretical work was always combined with a practical immersion in socialist organising. This ranged from involvement in student and worker strikes at the University of Manitoba, Canada, where he first went to university, to his later work with Greg Albo, Sam Gindin and others in the Socialist Project in Toronto. The development of Leo’s theoretical work was always combined with a practical immersion in socialist organising

From these and many other experiences, Leo took a detailed understanding and intuitive ‘feel’ for the material realities of organising sustained working-class power and of the institutional and mental blockages such organising faces. This animated his writings and his editorial leadership, with Colin Leys and then Greg Albo, of the Socialist Register, an annual collection of writing on international issues confronting socialists. You can read Leo’s own Socialist Register essays 1979-2020, here.

Key to Leo’s vision of sustained and strategic working-class organisation is the development of political capacity. Recently, after analysing the failure of the Greek left party SYRIZA to realise its radically transformative promise when elected to government in January 2015, Panitch and Gindin concluded their book The Socialist Challenge Today by arguing that: ‘If a socialist government is not to be stymied by the inherited state apparatuses, decisive focus on developing the agency and capacity for state transformation will be required.’

Leo’s multiple engagements in developing practical political capacity ranged from his inspirational teaching as professor at York University, where many of his PhD students became writers for Socialist Register, to his supportive involvement with The World Transformed (TWT) political education network. At TWT events, not only were Leo’s talks tours de force, he would also work with TWT organisers on TWT’s own approach to political education.

He supported and wrote for Red Pepper (see below) and other socialist publications in a spirit of posing questions and providing analytic and historical resources for us to answer them in our own way. He was never dogmatic or sectarian, regarding such stances as obstacles to the consciousness-raising that is at the heart of political education.

Leo’s understanding of the idea of ‘agency’, then, was not simply as a theoretical concept but as a material process to be built – often with difficulty and scarce human resources of time and funds – and against hostile actors who were often far better resourced. This recognition enabled him to understand two levels of politics that are in perpetual tension and yet somehow had to be combined to be effective: on the one hand, the level of day-to-day material struggle for immediate improvements in the lives of those facing poverty, wage slavery and every other oppression; on the other hand, pursuing strategies for an entirely different, socialist society.

It is a dilemma summarised in this crucial reflection by Tony Benn:

‘[T]he usual problem of the reformer [is] that we have to run the economic system to protect our people who are now locked into it while we change the system. And if you run it without seeking to change it then you are locked in the decay of the system, but if you simply pass resolutions to change it without consulting those who are locked in the decaying system, then you become irrelevant to the people you seek to represent … We cannot content ourselves with speaking only to ourselves; we must raise these issues publicly and involve the community groups because we champion what they stand for. We must win the argument, broaden the base of membership, not only to win the election but to generate the public support to carry the policies through.’

Leo drew attention to this far-sighted remark again and again. He now leaves the task of finding answers to this dilemma with us, among many other unresolved questions. But he set us an example as to how to address these questions and an implicit imperative to do so. ‘Leo thought on a bigger scale. His death doesn’t stop that kind of a dream,’ insists Gindin, his close collaborator and long-time friend. ‘He saw himself as part of a longer-term process that other people are going to have to continue.’

Each of us has to recreate the foundations that Leo’s shocking death took from under us. In his writing and remembered conversations he has provided sturdy rocks with which to do so. We have to mix the cement to put them together with the solidarity, love and political passion that he exemplified.

Leo Panitch’s writing in Red Pepper

Leo Panitch, 1945-2020

Hilary Wainwright is a Red Pepper editor


Leo Panitch’s PM works include In and Out of Crisis: The Global Financial Meltdown and Left Alternatives, coauthored with Sam Gindin and Greg Albo, and an excellent interview with Sasha Lilley in Capital and Its Discontents: Conversations with Radical Thinkers in a Time of Tumult.

Back to Leo Panitch’s Author Page.

https://www.pmpress.org/blog/2021/01/01/the-convivial-practical-road-to-socialism-a-tribute-to-leo-panitch/ 

Canada surges from 500,000 to 600,000 COVID-19 cases in two weeks

JANUARY 4, 2021

Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

Canada surpassed the grim milestone of 600,000 coronavirus cases Sunday, two weeks after passing half a million, underscoring the pandemic's persistence in the country during the end-of-year holiday period.

On Sunday afternoon, Canada recorded 601,314 COVID-19 infections since the start of the pandemic and 15,860 deaths, according to data from provinces and territories reported by the public television station CBC.

Ontario, Canada's most populous province, recorded 2,964 new cases in 24 hours on Sunday, and Quebec registered 2,869, a new daily record for the French-speaking province, which also has the country's highest death toll.

There have been 4,650 COVID-19 deaths to date in Ontario and 8,347 in Quebec.

Canada, a country of about 38 million, did not reach its first 100,000 cases until mid-June, three months after it recorded its first COVID-19 diagnoses.

Certain provinces, including Ontario and Quebec, imposed lockdown measures in multiple regions during the end-of-year holidays.

Responding to widespread concerns about people traveling to sunny destinations in defiance of official guidance, the government announced last week that anyone arriving in Canada is required to test negative for the virus.

Canadian authorities are strongly advising against non-essential travel abroad in order to stem the spread of the disease—a recommendation that some elected officials have ignored.

Ontario finance minister Rod Phillips was forced to resign due to backlash over a vacation he took to the Caribbean.

Over the past few days, more than half a dozen members of Parliament and politicians have admitted to holiday trips abroad.


Some have apologized.  NOT ENOUGH 
HAVE RESIGNED ESPECIALLY IN ALBERTA 
WHERE 9 UCP GOVT MEMBERS HAVE TRAVELE
THAT EQUALS THE FEDS AND ONTARIO MP/MPP'S
#FIREKENNEY

COVID LIVES ON SURFACES
Inflatable costume linked to Covid-19 outbreak at California hospital that infected 44

Jose Martinez Jan 04 2021

GETTY/MICHELE LAPINI
Air-powered costumes have been banned from the Kaiser Permanente San Jose emergency room after an incident that may have infected 44 people with Covid-19.


A hospital in California suspects that an inflatable costume may be behind a massive Covid-19 outbreak that has infected at least 44 employees, The San Francisco Chronicle reports.

A Kaiser Permanente San Jose Medical Center employee briefly wore the air-powered costume in the emergency room on Christmas Day to "lift the spirits" of fellow co-workers, but may have unknowingly spread the virus throughout the facility.

"Any exposure, if it occurred, would have been completely innocent, and quite accidental, as the individual had no COVID symptoms and only sought to lift the spirits of those around them during what is a very stressful time," the hospital said in a statement.

"If anything, this should serve as a very real reminder that the virus is widespread, and often without symptoms, and we must all be vigilant," the statement continued.

The emergency room has since undergone a deep cleaning, and all employees who have tested positive between December 27 and New Year's Day are being required to isolate. Kaiser Permanente San Jose is still conducting contact tracing to determine who else may have been exposed.

While the hospital had administered the Covid-19 vaccine to some emergency room workers prior to Christmas Day, the first dose doesn't reach its full potential until the second shot is given. Even then, none of the approved vaccines are 100 per cent effective against preventing someone from catching the virus.

It may go without saying, but air-powered costumes have been banned from the Kaiser Permanente San Jose emergency room.

California has the most coronavirus cases in the United States with 2.4 million reported. Over 26,000 people in the state have died from the virus.

VACCINATION DOES NOT ELIMINATE MASK WEARING

Hundreds of people in Israel contracted Covid-19 days after receiving their first vaccination dose, highlighting the risks of shunning safety measures when not fully inoculated.

The country has been held as the benchmark for how to deliver a vaccine quickly and effectively, with more than 10 per cent of its nine million population immunised at widespread vaccine delivery hubs.

More than a million people in Israel have received the Pfizer-BioNTech jab, one of the vaccines available in Dubai, since December 19.

UAE residents should continue to be cautious even if they have had the vaccine
Dr Amaka Uzu


Despite that, a small percentage to have received the first dose went on to contract the virus as antibodies can take weeks to develop.

With a similar population number to the UAE, lessons learned from Israel could be applied here to ensure similar coverage is achieved while precautionary measures are maintained.

“Even if someone has taken the vaccination, they should remember it is not a guarantee they are immune,” said Dr Amaka Uzu, a family medicine consultant at Bareen International Hospital, Abu Dhabi.

“My advice for UAE residents is to continue to be cautious.”

She was quick to stress that the immunisation process is not complete until both doses of the vaccination have been taken.

“After the first dose, a second is required to complete the immunisation process,” said Dr Uzu, who is awaiting a second shot of the Chinese-made Sinopharm vaccine offered in Abu Dhabi.

“However, people must continue to wear masks, keep socially distant and maintain good hand hygiene, even if they have had the vaccination.”

Dubai Health Authority said residents who have received the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine must still take PCR tests when required, such as for travel purposes; practise social distancing and continue to wear face masks if mandated.

Officials warned members of the public not to delay or miss their second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech jab. The injections are intended to be taken 21 days apart.
Israel leads the way in global inoculation drive

Israel has the world’s highest vaccination rate. Health authorities there report 12.59 vaccination doses per 100 people, compared to 3.53 in Bahrain and 1.39 in the UK.

By comparison, France has vaccinated only 352 people by the end of 2020, according to the University of Oxford’s Our World in Data website.

In the US, a target of immunising 20 million people by December 31 fell well short, with only4.23 million being vaccinated by January 2.

Most receiving the jab in Israel are aged 60 or above, a demographic at risk of more severe symptoms that has been given priority.

Since the vaccination programme launched, clinics there have administered about 150,000 jabs a day.

By law, all Israelis must register with a recognised healthcare provider, which then contacts people according to priority.

Research showed protection against Covid-19 can take up to 10 days to develop after the first dose is administered, but even then it reaches only about 50 per cent effectiveness.

READ MORE


   
Long Covid: what is POTS and could it help us better treat suffering virus survivors?

Explained: full guide to Dubai's Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine campaign

Sinopharm vaccine roll-out: UAE frontline medics relieved after months of uncertainty

While the vast majority of Israelis to receive a jab reported no problems, about one in 1,000 experienced mild side effects such as weakness, dizziness or fever.

Only 51 people required any form of medical attention.

Health authorities in the country said 319 people reported feeling slightly unwell, with 293 more reporting localised symptoms at the injection site, such as pain, restricted movement, redness or swelling.

State broadcaster Kan reported four people died shortly after receiving the vaccine, but three of those were of unrelated causes.

The fourth case, an 88-year-old man with serious health complications, is currently under investigation by Israel’s Health Ministry.

So far, the UAE has identified 213,231 coronavirus infections, including with 189,709 recoveries and 679 deaths.


The vaccine is exp
ected to be rolled out to all age groups once people in the essential categories have been vaccinated. EPA








Bushmeat Now Legally On Sale in Tanzania

The Tanzanian government has approved the sale, under strict guidelines. This follows an order by President John Magufuli that game meat-selling points be opened across the country to curb illegal hunting. Besides maintaining the overall cleanliness of the selling facilities, operators will be required to issue electronic receipts to buyers showing the source of the meat. Operators will need to slaughter animals at a licensed meat abattoir and surrender any "trophies", including skull and skin unless they have a trophy ownership certificate. Butchers will be subjected to constant scrutiny by a ministerial committee that will include veterinarians and meat inspectors. During the Ebola outbreak that ravaged many West African countries in 2012, the World Health Organization warned communities against eating bushmeat, which was thought to have been the main carrier of the virus at the time.

InFocus


This Is Not A Game is a social marketing campaign from WCP | Wildlife Crime Prevention working in partnership with the Zambian Department of National Parks and Wildlife. It is the culmination of years of scientific work to better understand the illegal bushmeat trade in Zambia and its impacts on both people and wildlife.

SEE

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for BUSHMEAT (plawiuk.blogspot.com)


LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for ZOONOSIS (plawiuk.blogspot.com)

Nigeria: Fishermen Threaten Showdown Over Shell's Failure to Pay $3.6bn Bonga Spill Fine


Amnesty International
Pastor Christian Lekoya Kpandei's hand covered in oily mud, Bodo Creek, in 2011. His fish farm once provided a living for about 30 families. Its collapse forced him to move to a single-room apartment, to pull his youngest child out of school and left him with no regular source of income.

4 JANUARY 2021
This Day (Lagos)By Onungwe Obe


Fishermen from the Niger Delta region operating under the auspices of Artisanal Fishermen Association of Nigeria (ARFAN) have urged the federal government to prevail on Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company (SNEPCO) Limited to pay the $3.6 billion fine imposed by the oil industry regulators over the 2011 Bonga oilfield spill or face a showdown.

The fishermen also demanded that the federal government compensate them for shutting down their trade during the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown, saying they were yet to recover from the impact of the lockdown on the fisheries sector, as they were excluded from the palliatives given to the agriculture sector during the lockdown.

The Coordinator of ARFAN in the Niger Delta region, Rev. Samuel Ayadi, told journalists in Yenagoa yesterday that another lockdown following the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic would be unbearable for fishermen.



Ayadi said fishermen suffered seriously since 2011 when an equipment failure from the Bonga offshore field operated by SNEPC discharged some 40,000 barrels of crude into the water.

"On December 20, 2011, during loading of crude oil at Bonga fields within OML 118 situated at 120 kilometres off the Atlantic coastline, the export line ruptured and discharged crude oil into the sea," he stated.

The export line, according to a Joint Investigation Report by National Oil Spills Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA) and SNEPCO, spewed about 40,000 barrels (6.4 million litres) of crude oil into the sea.



Ayadi, therefore, appealed to the federal government to prevail on Shell to pay the NOSDRA imposed fine for the oil spill so that fishermen who lost their occupation can recover from the effect.

He said fishermen complied with the order by NOSDRA that they should pull out of the sea to avoid having contaminated catch while the cleanup lasted, and therefore deserve to be indemnified from their losses.

NOSDRA had in March 2015 imposed the fine on Shell for discharging 40,000 barrels of crude oil into the Atlantic Ocean on December 20, 2011.

The fine comprised $1.8 billion as compensation for the damages done to natural resources and consequential loss of income by the affected shoreline communities as well as a punitive damage of $1.8billion.

However, Shell lost its bid to cancel the fine, when a Federal High Court in Lagos presided over by Justice Mojisola Olatoregun on June 20, 2018, dismissed the suit it filed against NOSDRA.




Read the original article on This Day.
The priest, the engineer and the economist
By Kurt Cobb, originally published by Resource Insights
December 27, 2020


I was exchanging economist jokes over the holiday and heard this one that seemed apropos both to our resource predicament and the seeming abundance of the holiday season:

A priest, an engineer and an economist were stranded together on a desert island. Given their location, fish seemed to be a logical source of food. So, they discussed how to get some. The priest said that the three of them should pray. The engineer said he thought a better approach would be to fashion a net from materials on the island. The priest and the engineer then turned to the economist for his input. With his hand on his chin, the economist thought for a moment and then looked up and said, “Assume a fish.”

That joke neatly summarizes the problem with the vast majority of economic thinking today. Much of that thinking rests on something called the Cobb-Douglas function which has three terms:


Total production = Labor input X Capital input

What is so obviously missing, of course, are physical resources. Hence, “assume a fish” illustrates the slight of hand which most economists perform when referring to the physical world.

In fact, most economic growth projections simply forecast a certain expected (higher) level of demand for goods and services and then assume that the physical resources to meet that demand will appear. Which reminds me of a quote I shared over Christmas dinner that comes to us from economist John Kenneth Galbraith:

The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.

And, I am reminded of yet another quotation attributed to economist Herbert Stein:

If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.

So, the real question is when. When will economic growth come to a halt because limits have arrived? It may be difficult to know that this is happening because the main method we use to measure growth—gross domestic product—is imprecise and includes all sorts of questionable elements such as growth in the extraction and burning of fossil fuels and the resulting growth in greenhouse gas emissions, growth in the production and release of toxic chemicals, growth in convenience foods laced with many of those chemicals and devoid of good nutrition, and the enormous amounts of money spent on health care (really illness care) in most wealthy nations rather than the promotion of wellness. GDP is simply a tally of total economic activity. It makes no distinction between activities which degrade our well-being and those that promote it.

Economic growth as growth in the use of resources and in the waste products which result cannot go on forever. Limits to Growth produced a very rough picture of the future of economic growth and resource use that pointed to problems emerging right about now.

And, there has been persistent concern about low economic growth worldwide in the last decade. Will similar concerns remain and even deepen as we move out of the pandemic-induced economic slump we have faced?

Writer Gail Tverberg recently provided a list of reasons that economic growth may elude the world as a whole in the coming years. Many of those reasons echo the ones found in Limits to Growth.

In recent conversations with a colleague at the Center for the Advancement of the Steady State Economy I was reminded of Herman Daly, the dean of the steady-state economists, who writes in his seminal essay Economics in a Full World that:


Even trying to define sustainability in terms of constant GDP is problematic because GDP conflates qualitative improvement (development) with quantitative increase (growth). The sustainable economy must at some point stop growing, but it need not stop developing. There is no reason to limit the qualitative improvement in design of products, which can increase GDP without increasing the amount of resources used. The main idea behind sustainability is to shift the path of progress from growth, which is not sustainable, toward development, which presumably is.

There are certainly many intangibles which we can also continuously develop such as the arts, our spiritual lives, and our personal relationships. It is that kind of development which comes to view more prominently during holidays that emphasize the oneness of all human beings.

As difficult as 2020 has been, it could be for some, if not for all, a springboard to vast positive personal and social transformation. Such a process would be aided by less focus on “more” and greater focus on “better.”

Image: Ceiling painting (detail: female allegory of abundance with wreath of grain ears and the Brandenburg eagle), Wikimedia Commons
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Erhebung_des_Gro%C3%9Fen_Kurf%C3%BCrsten_in_den_Olymp_(van_Loo)_-_weibliche_Allegorie_mit_%C3%84hrenkranz_und_dem_brandenburgischen_Adler.jpg

Solar now ‘cheapest electricity in history’:
 How much will it matter?

By Kurt Cobb, originally published by Resource Insights
January 3, 2021


The InternationalEnergy Agency (IEA), the Paris-based consortium of 30 countries, has told us in its flagship World Energy Outlook 2020 that solar-produced electricity is now the “cheapest electricity in history.” That seems like very good news, that is, until the actual expected impact of that fact is examined more closely.

For those who are concerned about climate change and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from electric generation, it is certainly good news—but not quite good enough to make a dent in fossil fuel emissions.

Setting aside any concerns about critical materials needed to make the solar revolution reach completion, it may surprise many readers of the “cheapest electricity in history” headline that growth in solar energy will likely NOT lead to a reduction of fossil fuel burning anytime soon. In fact, the IEA’s main forecast has natural gas consumption growing by 30 percent through 2040 while oil consumption levels off but does not decline. Coal use does continue to decline as a share of total energy.

With solar energy and other renewables expected to grow so much by 2040, how can this be so? The answer is that what the IEA calls non-hydro renewables (solar, wind, geothermal, biomass) will provide 80 percent of the INCREASE in expected global electricity demand. That means that the fossil fuel electricity infrastructure will continue to grow and that existing plants will remain in place rather than be supplanted by renewables.

Of course, for the part of the economy that runs on liquid fuels including transportation and many industrial processes requiring high heat, more renewable electricity doesn’t make much of a dent in fossil fuel use. Even where transportation is being electrified, the growth in internal combustion engine vehicles continues to dwarf those running on electricity. And then there is the existing fleet of fossil-fueled vehicles on the road. Is it realistic to expect all or most will be replaced by electric vehicles when these existing vehicles are junked?

The IEA’s main scenario is better than if all the increase in energy demand were met by fossil fuels. But as the IEA admits, under this scenario our climate change problem continues to worsen. The agency does outline scenarios in which fossil fuel use would drop and renewables would expand more robustly. But these are all outside current policy. Clearly, the agency believes there will be some policy movement, and it is actually pleading for that movement with its scenarios.

The sparkling future promised to us by the promoters of green energy most often assumes that we have far more time to make the transition than we do. And, it assumes that we can scale renewables to the level of energy consumption we have today and larger in the future. Even those who are touting energy conservation and efficiency are generally not suggesting that the global economy dramatically reduce its energy consumption. But reducing energy use seems to me to be the fastest, surest path forward for a stable economy, society and climate.

As we start the new year and people across the world pray for a return to the economy of 2019, it seems like a fool’s errand to insist that going back to 2019 only puts us on a calamitous and unsustainable path all over again. But I believe the fools are on the other side when they insist that doing more of what we’ve done in the past will solve our central problems including climate change.

Image: Solar power generation by Mouchot in Algeria (1882) 

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:ROYAUMONT_Mouchot.png

“Augustin Mouchot (7 April 1825 – 4 October 1912) was a 19th-century French inventor of the earliest solar-powered engine, converting solar energy into mechanical steam power.”