#NOFEAR

New COVID-19 research: How to make people follow restrictions without appealing to fear

"Many countries are hit by a third wave of infections and authorities may be tempted to induce fear to make people follow guidelines. Our findings provide policy makers with an alternative." - Michael Bang Petersen, professor, Aarhus University, Denmark

AARHUS UNIVERSITY

Research News

 

IMAGE: PROFESSOR MICHAEL BANG PETERSEN, AARHUS UNIVERSITY, DENMARK view more 

CREDIT: PHOTO: IDA MARIE JENSEN, AARHUS UNIVERSITY

Making people fear the coronavirus may motivate us to wash our hands, keep our distance and wear a face mask. But fear also takes a heavy toll on our mental health and is fertile ground for discrimination and prejudice. New research shows a different path.

When the coronavirus pandemic hit the world in the spring of 2020, feelings of being capable or efficacious against the virus were a key factor in driving compliance with the authorities' guidelines. This is the result of a new study based on large surveys across eight Western democracies, published in British Journal of Health Psychology.

The extent to which we personally felt informed and capable of acting clearly affected the extent of our behaviour to prevent infection, e.g. by keeping our distance and refraining from handshakes.

"These are important findings because they show a pathway to public compliance with pandemic health advice which is not driven by personal fear. Today, in the spring of 2021, many countries are hit by a third wave of infections and authorities may be tempted to induce fear to make people follow guidelines. Our findings provide policy makers with an alternative," says Michael Bang Petersen, one of three authors behind the study, and a professor of political science at Aarhus University, Denmark.

Tell us what to do, and we will do it

In fact, the study shows that when people feel capable of handling the crisis, the impact of fear is no longer important. Those who feel efficacious comply with the authorities' guidelines regardless of whether they are worried about the health of themselves and their families. And they also comply regardless of whether they trust their government and their fellow citizens.

"Our study shows that in the first stage of the pandemic, a sense of urgency emerged and made people put aside individual considerations and political differences. This sense caused people across the world to say: 'Tell us what to do, and we will do it,'" says Professor Michael Bang Petersen.

26,000 participants from the UK, the USA and six EU countries

The study is based on representative surveys conducted in Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. A total of 26,508 people participated from March to May 2020 as the early events were unfolding.

"The study provides a unique insight into behaviour during the first wave of an unprecedented crisis, which we can utilise both in the present and in the long term. Often, decision-makers are worried that the population will panic. But our data shows that authorities do not need to fear this. Instead, they should tell people as clearly as possible about the actual challenges and how people should act," Michael Bang Petersen concludes.

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The new findings are part of a large-scale data-driven research project entitled HOPE - How Democracies Cope with COVID-19. The project is financed by the Carlsberg Foundation and headed by Professor Michael Bang Petersen. He co-authored the study with Frederik Jørgensen and Alexander Bor, two fellow researchers at the Department of Political Science at Aarhus University.

Contact:
Michael Bang Petersen, professor of political science and head of the HOPE project
Aarhus BSS, Aarhus University
Email: michael@ps.au.dk
Twitter: @M_B_Petersen

Water splitting for solar energy conversion

SHINSHU UNIVERSITY

Research News

 

IMAGE: PT-MODIFIED BATAO2N PHOTOCATALYSTS view more 

CREDIT: CITED FROM WANG, Z., LUO, Y., HISATOMI, T. ET AL. SEQUENTIAL COCATALYST DECORATION ON BATAO2N TOWARDS HIGHLY-ACTIVE Z-SCHEME WATER SPLITTING. NAT COMMUN 12, 1005 (2021). COPYRIGHT © 2021, THE AUTHORS....

In order to enable large-scale hydrogen production using solar energy, particulate photocatalysts are being researched as a simple and cost-effective solution to splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen. It is necessary to develop a photocatalyst that can efficiently use visible light, which accounts for a large part of solar energy, in the water decomposition reaction. Barium tantalum oxynitride (BaTaO2N) is an oxynitride semiconductor material that absorbs visible light up to 650 nm and has a band structure capable of decomposing water into hydrogen and oxygen. Until very recently, it had not been possible to load BaTaO2N granules with co-catalyst fine particles, which are reaction active sites, with good adhesion and high dispersion.

In this study led by the Research Initiative for Supra-Materials of Shinshu University, the co-catalyst fine particles were found to be highly dispersed on the surface of the single crystal fine particles of BaTaO2N synthesized by the flux method when the impregnation-reduction method and the photodeposition method were sequentially applied (Fig. 1). As a result, the efficiency of the hydrogenation reaction using the BaTaO2N photocatalyst has been improved to nearly 100 times that of the conventional one, and the efficiency of the two-step excitation type (Z scheme type) water decomposition reaction in combination with the oxygen generation photocatalyst has also been improved. Transient absorption spectroscopy reveals that the Pt-assisted catalyst microparticles supported by the new method are less likely to induce recombination of electrons and holes because they efficiently extract electrons from the BaTaO2N photocatalyst (Fig. 2).

By supporting a small amount of Pt co-catalyst by the impregnation-reduction method in advance, the reduction reaction on the photocatalyst is promoted without agglutination of Pt fine particles. As a result, Pt cocatalyst fine particles are evenly supported by photodeposition on BaTaO2N particles. As a result, it is considered that the extraction of electricity by Pt co-catalyst fine granules proceeded efficiently.

It was also confirmed that the use of BaTaO2N, which is synthesized using an appropriate flux and has a low density of defects, is also important for supporting a highly dispersed Pt co-catalyst. This study dramatically improved the activity of the BaTaO2N photocatalyst and clarified its mechanism. The results of this research are expected to lead to the development of long-wavelength-responsive photocatalysts that drive the water decomposition reaction with high efficiency.

###

This research was conducted in collaboration with the Japan Technological Research Association of Artificial Photosynthetic Chemical Process (ARPChem), and is part of the "Artificial Photosynthesis Project" of the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO).

Sequential cocatalyst decoration on BaTaO2N towards highly-active Z-scheme water splitting

Authors: Zheng Wang, Ying Luo, Takashi Hisatomi, Junie Jhon M. Vequizo, Sayaka Suzuki, Shanshan Chen, Mamiko Nakabayashi, Lihua Lin, Zhenhua Pan, Nobuko Kariya, Akira Yamakata, Naoya Shibata, Tsuyoshi Takata, Katsuya Teshima, and Kazunari Domen

Journal: Nature Communications, (2021)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21284-3

Acknowledgements

This work was financially supported by the Artificial Photosynthesis Project of the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO). A part of this work was conducted at the Advanced Characterization Nanotechnology Platform of the University of Tokyo, supported by the Nanotechnology Platform of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT), Japan (grant number: JPMXP09A-19-UT-0023). The authors thank Ms. Michiko Obata of Shinshu University for her assistance with XPS measurements.

CAPTION

Schematic of sequential Pt-cocatalyst deposition on BaTaO2N

CREDIT

Cited from Wang, Z., Luo, Y., Hisatomi, T. et al. Sequential cocatalyst decoration on BaTaO2N towards highly-active Z-scheme water splitting. Nat Commun 12, 1005 (2021). Copyright © 2021, The Authors.

Groundwater discharge affects water quality in coastal waters

UNIVERSITY OF GOTHENBURG

Research News

 

IMAGE: GROUNDWATER DISCHARGE CAN DRIVE NITROGEN IN COASTAL WATERS. IN THE PICTURE, RESEARCHERS ARE WALKING ON GROUNDWATER DISCHARGING TO THE OCEAN AT LOW TIDE. view more 

CREDIT: ISAAC SANTOS

Water quality management in the ocean often targets visible pollution sources such as sewage, rivers or ships. A new global study, led by researchers at the University of Gothenburg, reveals that invisible groundwater discharges may be just as important driving nitrogen into coastal waters.

As we enter the United Nations' Decade of the Oceans, a new research study shed light on an often overlooked source of impact on the coastal ecosystems.

The study, which examined groundwater discharges at more than 200 locations worldwide, showed that groundwater is the major source of nitrogen and phosphorus to the ocean at many locations, including some areas in the Baltic Sea.

"Groundwater is essentially invisible and difficult to investigate. That is why coastal water quality managers often overlook groundwater discharges to the oceans," says Isaac Santos, professor in marine chemistry at the University of Gothenburg, who led the study in collaboration with thirteen worldwide universities.

"Nitrogen pollution is a major threat to marine biodiversity and a worldwide concern. Surprisingly, our global analysis revealed that groundwater nitrogen discharge exceeds river nitrogen discharge at 60 percent of the sites where both sources have been quantified."

Groundwater accumulates nitrogen from fertilisers used on crops, and may take decades to release this nitrogen to the ocean. When the nitrogen reaches the ocean, it increases algal biomass and decreases marine biodiversity and eventually fisheries.

Many lakes and rivers are connected to groundwater aquifers, geological formations that store groundwater. This high connectivity has prompted legislation to protect those groundwater-dependent ecosystems at the national and European level.

"However, this study shows that the coastal ocean is also highly connected to aquifers, so we need to consider groundwater aquifers as well when managing coastal water quality. For example, the Baltic Sea and many other coastal areas have suffered from nitrogen pollution for decades," says Stefano Bonaglia, a marine chemist at the University of Gothenburg who also participated in the study

They both emphasise that the management of groundwater discharges to the coastal ocean is challenging and may require decades of work. At the University of Gothenburg marine researchers will continue to investigate submarine groundwater discharge with a number of international research projects.

"Climate change, sea level rise and land use change will modify the chemistry of coastal aquifers, and we are now trying to understand how this will have long term impacts on submarine groundwater discharge", says Isaac Santos.

About the research

Title: Submarine groundwater discharge impacts on coastal nutrient biogeochemistry
Scientific journal: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-021-00152-0

 #AIRPOLLUTION

Urban and transport planning linked to 2,000 premature deaths per year in Barcelona and Madrid

BARCELONA INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL HEALTH (ISGLOBAL)

Research News

 

Failure to comply with international exposure recommendations for air pollution, noise, heat and access to green space is associated with more than 1,000 deaths per year in Barcelona and more than 900 in Madrid, accounting for 7% and 3% of overall premature mortality, respectively.

This is the conclusion of a new study by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), a centre supported by the "la Caixa" Foundation. This study is the first to estimate premature mortality impacts and the distribution by socioeconomic status of multiple environmental exposures related to urban planning and transport in the two cities.

Today, more than half of the global population lives in cities. In Spain, this trend is even more pronounced, with 80% of the population living in urban areas. Madrid and Barcelona are two of Europe's most populous cities, and they also have some of the highest rates of socioeconomic inequality among inhabitants. Recent studies in European cities such as Vienna, Bradford and Barcelona have shown that a considerable proportion of the premature mortality burden--between 8% and 20%--is associated with poor urban and transport planning.

The new study, published in Environmental Research, estimated the impact of non-compliance with international exposure level recommendations for air pollution--fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)--as well as excess heat, traffic noise and lack of green space on residents over 20 years of age in Barcelona and Madrid, cities with different urban planning practices. Whereas Madrid is structured around a central nucleus where most economic activity is concentrated, Barcelona is a compact city whose economic activity is distributed across different neighbourhoods.

The study focused on identifying environmental inequities. "Our goal was to identify the population groups that were most exposed and most vulnerable to the effects of poor urban and transport planning," commented ISGlobal researcher Tamara Iungman, lead author of the study. As for methodology, the researchers used a tool called Urban and Transport Planning Health Impact Assessment (UTOPHIA), which was developed by a team at ISGlobal. "We compared current exposure levels with international recommendations and estimated the fraction of preventable premature deaths that could be avoided if we were to comply with those recommendations," explained Iungman.

Attributable Deaths

The findings showed that non-compliance with WHO's exposure recommendations for air pollution, noise, and access to green space, along with excess heat, were associated with 1,037 premature deaths per year in Barcelona (1). Fine particulate air pollution was the exposure associated with the highest premature mortality, accounting for 524 deaths per year (48% of total attributable deaths), followed by lack of green space (277 deaths), exposure to traffic noise (124 deaths), heat (112 deaths) and exposure to NO2 (12 deaths).

For Madrid, the total number of deaths attributable to non-compliance with international recommendations was 902. Lack of green space was the exposure associated with the highest premature mortality (337 deaths per year), followed by excessive heat (244 deaths), NO2 air pollution (207 deaths), PM2.5 air pollution (173 deaths) and noise (148 deaths).

An earlier ISGlobal study attributed 20% of premature mortality in Barcelona to poor urban and transport planning. "The lower values obtained in this health impact assessment of Barcelona and Madrid--7.1% and 3.4%, respectively--could be attributed to the fact that physical activity was not included in this study, in addition to improvements in adverse exposure levels in recent years, as well as the different methodology used to estimate the mortality attributable to noise," commented Iungman.

Differences Between Barcelona and Madrid

With better urban and transport planning, Barcelona could avoid nearly twice as many deaths as Madrid: 72 versus 33 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. "This difference can be partly explained by the fact that the scientific evidence associates higher mortality with exposure to PM2.5, which is higher in Barcelona; another explanation would be the greater traffic and population density in Barcelona than in Madrid, given that its area represents 1/6th of Madrid's", explained ISGlobal researcher Natalie Mueller, coordinator of the study.

With an annual average of 15 μg/m3, Barcelona exceeded the maximum level recommended by the World Health Organisation (WHO) for PM2.5 (10 μg/m3). For NO2 levels, however, the city's annual average of 37 μg/m3 was under the recommended maximum of 40 μg/m3. Madrid exceeded the WHO recommendations on both counts, with an annual average of 11 μg/m3 for PM2.5 and 42 μg/m3 for NO2.

The main difference between the two cities was in air pollutants. The findings showed higher levels of fine particulate matter in Barcelona and NO2 in Madrid, as well as different spatial distributions: high levels of PM2.5 throughout Barcelona and higher levels of NO2 in the centre of the Spanish capital. "While the main source of NO2 emissions is local motor-vehicle traffic, fine particulate matter has a higher dispersion capacity and is also associated with other combustion sources besides traffic," commented Mueller. "The port and the large industrial areas near Barcelona could influence the high levels of fine particulate matter in the city."

As for green space, the vast majority of the population in Madrid and Barcelona--84% and 95%, respectively--did not have adequate access to these natural environments according to the standards of the WHO, which recommends that people should live within 300 metres of a green space measuring at least half a hectare. This widespread lack of access to green space shows that "in order for green spaces to have health benefits--in addition to mitigating other exposures such as noise and excess heat--it is necessary to consider not only their availability in the city, but also their distribution so that residents can access them on foot," commented Mueller.

With regard to noise, 97% of the population of Madrid and 96% of the population of Barcelona were exposed to traffic noise levels higher than the WHO's recommended values. "Both cities had a considerable mortality burden attributable to traffic noise, which underscores how important it is to reduce noise to improve the health of the population," argued Mueller.

Although there are no specific guidelines for heat, the researchers calculated the temperature corresponding to the smallest number of heat-related deaths in each city: 22.5°C for Barcelona and 21.5°C for Madrid and estimated the impacts of a potential reduction of 1º. "The two cities had similar attributable mortality rates and we found correlations between less green space and higher levels of heat and noise," added Iungman.

Environmental Inequities

The findings show that poor urban and transport planning in Barcelona is associated with higher mortality in census tracts with lower socioeconomic status, whereas in Madrid the attributable mortality burden varied by environmental exposure. Although air pollution, lack of green space and excessive heat are widespread problems in Barcelona, attributable mortality rates were overall higher in the most deprived areas. Thus, populations in the most deprived census tracts had a mortality risk 1.26 times higher than that of the least deprived groups, probably because of an already higher underlying vulnerability.

In Madrid, the most deprived neighbourhoods had higher exposure to PM2.5 and heat than the least deprived neighbourhoods, while the inverse was true for NO2 and noise. This is probably due to the fact that lower socioeconomic population subgroups reside more peripheral and closer to industrial areas, where the cost of living is cheaper -and thus they are more exposed to PM2.5 and heat-, while middle and upper middle socioeconomic population reside in Madrid highly trafficked city center, with greater exposure to NO2 and traffic noise. With respect to green spaces, lack of access affected people of both low and middle socioeconomic status. This pattern was also reflected in its attributable mortality, where only the least deprived areas were the ones having less adverse impacts, probably due to lower underlying vulnerability and better general health status.

Co-author Mark Nieuwenhuijsen, Director of the Urban Planning, Environment and Health Initiative at ISGlobal, commented: "This analysis is in line with previous research showing that people living in more deprived neighbourhoods tend to be more exposed to harmful environmental exposures compared to those living in wealthier areas, although this inequity varies according to the design characteristics and historical development of each city."

"This study shows that environmental exposures have a large impact on premature mortality and underscores the importance of designing cities with health impacts in mind, valuing the specificities of each urban environment and prioritising disadvantaged populations," concluded Nieuwenhuijsen. "Health impact assessments are a powerful tool for guiding policymakers towards cities that are healthy, sustainable and fair for all residents."

###

Reference

Tamara Iungman, Sasha Khomenko, Mark Nieuwenhuijsen, Evelise Pereira Barboza, Albert Ambròs, Cindy M. Padilla, Natalie Mueller. The impact of transport and urban planning practices on health: Assessment of the attributable mortality burden in Madrid and Barcelona and its distribution by socioeconomic status. Environmental Research. March 2021.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.110988

(1) In order to avoid potential double counting of the effects of the air pollutants, this global number only included PM2.5 impacts, which has a greater strength of association with mortality than NO2. Currently, there is a lack of evidence on the independence of mortality effects for NO2 and PM2.5.

Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert system.

How to talk to people about climate change

UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA

Research News

 

As our planet warms, seas rise and catastrophic weather events become more frequent, action on climate change has never been more important. But how do you convince people who still don't believe that humans contribute to the warming climate?

New UBC research may offer some insight, examining biases towards climate information and offering tools to overcome these and communicate climate change more effectively.

Researchers examined 44 studies conducted over the past five years on the attentional and perceptual biases of climate change - the tendency to pay special attention to or perceive particular aspects of climate change. They identified a number of differences between people of different political orientations, finding that those who were more liberal tended to pay attention to the rising part of a global temperature graph. When the temperature increase was emphasized in red, these people were more likely to take actions on climate change, including signing petitions and donating money. Not so for conservatives, where this effect was absent.

The review explains cognitive reasons for a lack of actions on climate change, says Prof. Jiaying Zhao (she/her/hers), a Language Sciences member and senior author, along with her student Yu Luo (he/him/his). "Climate change is a problem of collective behaviours so to address it, you have to address behaviours first."

These biases include that liberals who were concerned about the climate were more accurate at identifying climate-related words (e.g., carbon) than neutral words (e.g., coffee) in a rapid visual presentation, while conservatives who weren't concerned were no better at seeing climate-related words over neutral words, suggesting that people with different political orientations show different attentional priorities to climate change information.

This is something with which Prof. Zhao, an associate professor in the department of psychology and the Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, has personal experience. "Anything to do with climate change in the news catches my attention. Anything about the climate in the headlines - carbon, flooding, hurricanes - it draws my attention quickly." Everyone has biases, Prof. Zhao says, and she is working to correct her own, "but no one is immune." Indeed, the review noted people with higher numeracy or literacy skills are better at selectively analyzing information to confirm their prior beliefs.

Perceptual biases were highlighted as well: the review concluded that misperceptions of norms within a group can be a barrier to bipartisan climate policy making in the U.S., with one study showing that people often hold distorted perceptions of the degree of opposition from those outside their group, resulting in a false sense of polarization. Another study found that the perception of greenhouse gas emissions was often incorrect, with people not understanding how global warming works, or the emissions associated with things like a hamburger or a flight.

Prof. Zhao stresses the urgency of addressing these biases to spur actions on climate change. "It is an increasingly urgent global challenge and we need to do something about it fast." The authors suggest several communication tools to do so, including that communication of climate change should align with a target group's ideologies and values: for conservatives, this could include framing pro-environmental actions as benefiting the economy, building a more moral and caring community or benefiting future generations. Negative framing has been shown to be more effective, Prof. Zhao says, so pointing out the negative consequences to one's family of climate change could be an effective communication tool. "Regardless of your political orientation, if it's going to harm your children, every parent will want to take action."

Other tools include providing accurate information on social norms for both in-groups and out-groups, for instance, the actual percentage of conservatives who do not believe in anthropogenic climate change; and providing simple and understandable visualizations of the greenhouse gas emissions of individual actions and items.

Whichever communication tool is used, the authors advise targeting specific cognitive processes associated with the audience group to effectively persuade people. And further work is needed on how to translate information to personal action, they say. But the time to act is now, says Prof. Zhao, with the paper providing policy makers clues to, and solutions for, inaction. "I see an urgent need to call for collective climate actions. We're not doing enough to address climate change and this paper explains some of the reasons."

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New oil palm map to inform policy and landscape-level planning

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

Research News

 

IMAGE: THE EXTENT AND YEAR OF DETECTION OF OIL PALM PLANTATIONS ZOOMED INTO FOUR LOCATIONS: KRABI, THAILAND, JOHOR IN MALAYSIA, CENTRAL KALIMANTAN AND RIAU IN SOUTH SUMATRA, INDONESIA. view more 

CREDIT: IMAGE PRODUCED USING QGIS

IIASA researchers have used Sentinel 1 satellite imagery from the European Space Agency to produce a map of the extent and year of detection of oil palm plantations in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand that will help policymakers and other stakeholders understand trends in oil palm expansion while also providing an accurate map for landscape-level planning.

The world's appetite for palm oil seems to know no bounds. We use it in everything from beauty products and food, to industrial processes and biofuels to fulfill our energy needs. This ever growing demand has caused oil palm production to more than double in the last two decades, a development which has in turn deeply impacted natural forest ecosystems and biodiversity, while also significantly contributing to climate change by releasing carbon from converted forests and peatlands into the atmosphere. Today, almost 90% of the world's oil palm production takes place in Southeast Asia. While oil palm is known to be the most efficient oil producing plant globally, yields vary dynamically with plantation stand age, management practices, and location. To understand trends in oil palm plantation expansion and for landscape-level planning, accurate maps are needed. To this end, IIASA researchers have provided a detailed map of oil palm extent in 2017 using *Sentinel 1 satellite imagery from the European Space Agency in a new paper published in Nature Scientific Data.

"We specifically wanted to determine the extent and age of oil palm plantations across Southeast Asia and see if we could use technologies such as Google Earth Engine and data mining algorithms to produce an accurate map of oil palm extent from Sentinel 1 radar data, which could potentially be operationalized into a near-real time oil palm detection system. In addition, we wanted to explore the possibility of using time series analysis to go backwards in time and determine the age at which the plantation can first be detected (i.e., when trees are around 2 to 3 years in age)," explains lead author Olga Danylo, a researcher with the IIASA Novel Data Ecosystems for Sustainability Research Group.

While oil palm extent has been mapped before, this paper uses Sentinel 1 satellite data in combination with other data sets to map extent, along with time series from the Landsat archive to derive the year of plantation detection (which is a proxy for productive age of the plantations). This additional information is valuable for examining questions related to oil palm expansion over the last two decades, as well as the ability to calculate yields from the age information. (Yields increase during the plant's youth phase in the first seven years, reach a plateau during the prime age of 7-15 years, and then slowly start to decline before palms are replaced at the age of 25-30 years.) Therefore, knowing the exact extent and age of plantations across a landscape is crucial for landscape-level planning to allow for both sustainable oil palm production and forest conservation.

The paper's key output is a 30 m resolution map of Southeast Asia that indicates if oil palm is present and the year of detection of the plantation - a brand new feature that allows for a better understanding of oil palm expansion in Southeast Asia. The oil palm extent map has an overall accuracy of 83%, which is comparable to other products. The largest area of oil palm can be found in Sumatra and Kalimantan, with expansions in all major regions since the year 2000. The maps shows that the largest relative expansions over the last decade have taken place in Kalimantan, insular Malaysia, and Thailand, but interestingly, the net oil palm plantation area, excluding milling facilities, roads, and other related infrastructure, might be significantly smaller than previously thought.

According to the researchers, the new map could furthermore support the calculation of estimates of greenhouse gas emissions and removals for specific regions, provide a means whereby official statistics can be independently verified, and could also be used in analyses related to determining the economic trade-offs in different types of land use. In addition, the oil palm map in combination with spatial information about estate boundaries could help to identify specific actors and their adherence to environmental legislation and compliance with sustainability standards.

"Buying certified palm oil (RSPO) is a means of avoiding tropical deforestation. Our map can inform which sites are eligible for RSPO certification and it can help policymakers such as the EU commission to make more accurate and directed policies in relation to palm oil by for instance excluding palm oil from certain (recently deforested) areas from biofuels in the EU," concludes coauthor Johannes Pirker, a guest researcher with the Agriculture, Forestry, and Ecosystem Services Research Group at IIASA

The data set used in this paper is publicly accessible for download from the IIASA DARE repository.

* The Sentinel-1 mission comprises a constellation of two polar-orbiting satellites, operating day and night performing C-band synthetic aperture radar imaging, enabling them to acquire imagery regardless of the weather. Sentinel 1 satellite imagery is particularly valuable in tropical countries which are covered by clouds nearly all year.

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Reference

Danylo, O., Pirker, J., Lemoine, G., Ceccherini, G., See, L., McCallum, I., Hadi, Kraxner, F., Achard, F., Fritz, S. (2021). A map of the extent and year of detection of oil palm plantations in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Nature Scientific Data DOI: 10.1038/s41597-021-00867-1

Contacts:

Researcher contact
Olga Danylo
Research Scholar
Novel Data Ecosystems for Sustainability Research Group
Advancing Systems Analysis Program
Tel: +43 2236 807 248
danylo@iiasa.ac.at

Johannes Pirker
Guest Research Scholar
Agriculture, Forestry, and Ecosystem Services Research Group
Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program
pirker@iiasa.ac.at

Press Officer
Ansa Heyl
IIASA Press Office
Tel: +43 2236 807 574
Mob: +43 676 83 807 574
heyl@iiasa.ac.at

About IIASA:
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is an international scientific institute that conducts research into the critical issues of global environmental, economic, technological, and social change that we face in the twenty-first century. Our findings provide valuable options to policymakers to shape the future of our changing world. IIASA is independent and funded by prestigious research funding agencies in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Europe. http://www.iiasa.ac.at

Factors that may predict next pandemic

Climate change associated with emerging disease spread

UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY

Research News

 

IMAGE: WORLD MAP INDICATING ZOONOTIC PATHOGEN DIVERSITY. RED = HIGH DIVERSITY, GREEN = LOW DIVERSITY view more 

CREDIT: SINGH ET AL.

Humans are creating or exacerbating the environmental conditions that could lead to further pandemics, new University of Sydney research finds.

Modelling from the Sydney School of Veterinary Science suggests pressure on ecosystems, climate change and economic development are key factors associated with the diversification of pathogens (disease-causing agents, like viruses and bacteria). This has potential to lead to disease outbreaks.

The research, by Dr Balbir B Singh, Professor Michael Ward, and Associate Professor Navneet Dhand, is published in the international journal, Transboundary and Emerging Diseases.

They found a greater diversity of zoonotic diseases (diseases transmitted between animals and humans) in higher income countries with larger land areas, more dense human populations, and greater forest coverage.

The study also confirms increasing population growth and density are major drivers in the emergence of zoonotic diseases. The global human population has increased from about 1.6 billion in 1900 to about 7.8 billion today, putting pressure on ecosystems.

Associate Professor Dhand said: "As the human population increases, so does the demand for housing. To meet this demand, humans are encroaching on wild habitats. This increases interactions between wildlife, domestic animals and human beings which increases the potential for bugs to jump from animals to humans."

"To date, such disease models have been limited, and we continue to be frustrated in understanding why diseases continue to emerge," said Professor Ward, an infectious diseases expert.

"This information can help inform disease mitigation and may prevent the next COVID-19."

Other zoonotic diseases that have recently devastated human populations include SARS, avian (H5N1) and swine (H1N1) flu, Ebola and Nipah - a bat-borne virus.

Factors predicting disease

The researchers discovered country-level factors predicting three categories of disease: zoonotic, emerging (newly discovered diseases, or those diseases that have increased in occurrence or occurred in new locations), and human.

• Zoonotic diseases: land area, human population density, and area of forest. Areas with high zoonotic disease diversity include Europe, North America, Latin America, Australia, and China.

• Emerging diseases: land area, human population density and the human development index. Areas with high emerging disease diversity include Europe, North America,

• Human diseases: high per capita health expenditure, mean annual temperature, land area, human population density, human development index and rainfall. Areas with high human disease diversity include North America, Latin America, China and India.

"Countries within a longitude of -50 to -100 like Brazil, developed countries like United States and dense countries such as India were predicted to have a greater diversity of emerging diseases," Professor Ward said.

The researchers also noted weather variables, such as temperature and rainfall, could influence the diversity of human diseases. At warmer temperatures, there tend to be more emerging pathogens.

The analyses demonstrate that weather variables (temperature and rainfall) have the potential to influence pathogen diversity These factors combined confirm human development - including human-influenced climate change - not only damages our environment but is responsible for the emergence of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19.

Using data to help prevent outbreaks

"Our analysis suggests sustainable development is not only critical to maintaining ecosystems and slowing climate change; it can inform disease control, mitigation, or prevention," Professor Ward said.

"Due to our use of national-level data, all countries could use these models to inform their public health policies and planning for future potential pandemics."

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Methodology: The authors used 13,892 unique pathogen-country combinations and 49 socioeconomic and environmental variables to develop this model. Information from 190 countries was analysed using statistical models to identify drivers for emerging and zoonotic diseases.

Declaration: The authors would like to thank the Australian Government's Department of Education and Training for awarding a 2018 Endeavour Research Fellowship to the primary author of this research.

The authors acknowledge the data relied for this research is incomplete. Reasons include underreporting of some previously known and undiscovered pathogens, particularly in less developed countries. For some of the predictor variables, the latest data available had missing values because recent data had not been updated.

64% of global agricultural land at risk of pesticide pollution?

Asia and Europe revealed as having regions at high-risk of pesticide pollution

UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY

Research News

 

IMAGE: GLOBAL MAP REVEALS AREAS AT RISK OF PESTICIDE POLLUTION view more 

CREDIT: ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR FEDERICO MAGGI, DR FIONA TANG, UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY

The study, published in Nature Geoscience, produced a global model mapping pollution risk caused by 92 chemicals commonly used in agricultural pesticides in 168 countries.

The study examined risk to soil, the atmosphere, and surface and ground water.

The map also revealed Asia houses the largest land areas at high risk of pollution, with China, Japan, Malaysia, and the Philippines at highest risk. Some of these areas are considered "food bowl" nations, feeding a large portion of the world's population.

University of Sydney Research Associate and the study's lead author, Dr Fiona Tang, said the widespread use of pesticides in agriculture - while boosting productivity - could have potential implications for the environment, human and animal health.

"Our study has revealed 64 percent of the world's arable land is at risk of pesticide pollution. This is important because the wider scientific literature has found that pesticide pollution can have adverse impacts on human health and the environment," said Dr Tang.

Pesticides can be transported to surface waters and groundwater through runoff and infiltration, polluting water bodies, thereby reducing the usability of water resources.

"Although the agricultural land in Oceania shows the lowest pesticide pollution risk, Australia's Murray-Darling basin is considered a high-concern region both due to its water scarcity issues, and its high biodiversity," said co-author Associate Professor Federico Maggi from the School of Civil Engineering and the Sydney Institute of Agriculture.

"Globally, our work shows that 34 percent of the high-risk areas are in high-biodiversity regions, 19 percent in low-and lower-middle-income nations and five percent in water-scarce areas," said Dr Tang.

There is concern that overuse of pesticides will tip the balance, destabilise ecosystems and degrade the quality of water sources that humans and animals rely on to survive.

CAPTION

Global map reveals areas at risk of pesticide pollution

CREDIT

Associate Professor Federico Maggi, Dr Fiona Tang, University of Sydney

The future outlook

Global pesticide use is expected to increase as the global population heads towards an expected 8.5 billion by 2030.

"In a warmer climate, as the global population grows, the use of pesticides is expected to increase to combat the possible rise in pest invasions and to feed more people," said Associate Professor Maggi.

Dr Tang said: "Although protecting food production is essential for human development, reducing pesticide pollution is equivalently crucial to protect the biodiversity that maintains soil health and functions, contributing towards food security."

Co-author Professor Alex McBratney, Director of the Sydney Institute of Agriculture at the University of Sydney, said: "This study shows it will be important to carefully monitor residues on an annual basis to detect trends in order to manage and mitigate risks from pesticide use."

"We recommend a global strategy to transition towards a sustainable, global agricultural model that reduces food wastage while reducing the use of pesticides," said the authors of the paper.

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DISCLOSURE:

This research was supported by the University of Sydney's EnviroSphere research program. =The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare

 

Maternal exposure to chemicals linked to autistic-like behaviours in children

SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY

Research News

 

A new study by Simon Fraser University's Faculty of Health Sciences researchers - published today in the American Journal of Epidemiology - found correlations between increased expressions of autistic-like behaviours in pre-school aged children to gestational exposure to select environmental toxicants, including metals, pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), phthalates, and bisphenol-A (BPA).

This population study measured the levels of 25 chemicals in blood and urine samples collected from 1,861 Canadian women during the first trimester of pregnancy. A follow up survey was conducted with 478 participants, using the Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS) tool for assessing autistic-like behaviours in pre- school children.

The researchers found that higher maternal concentrations of cadmium, lead, and some phthalates in blood or urine samples was associated with increased SRS scores, and these associations were particularly strong among children with a higher degree of autistic-like behaviours. Interestingly, the study also noted that increased maternal concentrations of manganese, trans-Nonachlor, many organophosphate pesticide metabolites, and mono-ethyl phthalate (MEP) were most strongly associated with lower SRS scores.

The study's lead author, Josh Alampi, notes that this study primarily "highlights the relationships between select environmental toxicants and increased SRS scores. Further studies are needed to fully assess the links and impacts of these environmental chemicals on brain development during pregnancy."

The results were achieved by using a statistical analysis tool, called Bayesian quantile regression, that allowed investigators to determine which individual toxicants were associated with increased SRS scores in a more nuanced way than conventional methods.

"The relationships we discovered between these toxicants and SRS scores would not have been detected through the use of a means-based method of statistical analysis (such as linear regression)," noted Alampi. "Although quantile regression is not frequently used by investigators, it can be a powerful way to analyze complex population-based data."

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