A $1 Trillion Burden Looms For World Borrowers Refinancing Debt



Finbarr Flynn, Garfield Reynolds and Colin Keatinge
Sun, October 2, 2022 at 11:07 PM·7 min read

(Bloomberg) -- Governments and companies around the world are facing unprecedented costs to refinance bonds, a burden that’s set to deepen fissures in debt markets and expose more vulnerabilities among weaker borrowers.

A corporate treasurer or finance minister looking to issue new notes now would likely have to pay interest that’s about 156 basis points higher on average than the coupons on existing securities, after that gap surged to a record in recent days. That all adds up to about $1.01 trillion in additional costs if all those securities were refinanced, according to calculations using a Bloomberg index tracking some $65 trillion of government and corporate debt across currencies.

That broad benchmark of global debt lost 6.8% last quarter, its second-worst drop after a record slide in the previous three months, data stretching back to 1999 show. Monday brought little relief, with spreads on Asian high-grade dollar bonds little changed after blowing out the most in six months last week.

Rolling over debt is proving increasingly tricky for weaker borrowers as creditors price in risks of a global recession. Most governments and companies are still able to stomach the higher financing bills, but soaring fund outflows and volatility are causing credit markets to start to buckle. Banks last week had to pull a $4 billion leveraged buyout financing, and even investment-grade debt funds suffered one of the biggest cash withdrawals ever.

Actual overall refinancing costs will depend on where rates are when borrowers do roll over debt, and of course many with longer-term obligations won’t need to do so anytime soon. Still, with the Fed expected to raise its target rate more than a percentage point before year’s end, there’s also a risk borrowers could face even higher costs if they hold off.

Central banks must walk a fine line as they fight some of the worst inflation in decades, with Bank of America Corp. strategists recently warning that the Federal Reserve needs to slow the pace of rate hikes to prevent credit market dysfunction.

Concerns are also growing that liquidity is draining out of the world financial system as interest-rate swaps -- one of the world’s deepest markets -- fluctuate wildly. The gap between the floating- and fixed-rate legs of longer-dated swaps tied to the US Secured Overnight Financing Rate swung in some recent days by the most on record for the index, which was rolled out in October 2020 as a replacement for the London interbank offered rate.

Six US-based borrowers tracked by S&P Global Ratings defaulted in August, as signs mount that higher rates are already taking a toll on stretched borrowers’ ability to keep issuing new debt to pay off old. Other examples of debt stumbles abound, including in Asia where Sri Lanka defaulted on its borrowings earlier this year, and Chinese property firms have suffered record nonpayments.

“The era of cheap money is certainly over,” said Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics. “We are at the start of a global recession in our view and that includes a recession in Europe, which is particularly weak.”

Fed bankers dispelled in recent weeks any suggestion they are near halting interest rate hikes even if it means pain for the economy. That’s even after embarking on one of the most aggressive hiking cycles in modern times and their third consecutive 75-basis point interest rate increase in September.

The Bloomberg Multiverse Index of investment-grade and high-yield bonds across currencies has lost about 20% this year, on track for its worst annual slump ever. The securities fell into their first bear market in a generation in September.

Frontier sovereigns and highly-leveraged companies that borrowed in foreign currencies face potentially the greatest stress, according to Shearing at Capital Economics. While different in nature, the recent turmoil in UK markets after the government there announced dramatic tax cuts is a “warning” to other governments that they have less room for fiscal maneuver or policy error now, he said.

Higher borrowing costs are pinching even the strongest corporations too. The difference between current yields and average outstanding coupons for both US and European borrowers is currently around the highest in more than a decade. A sudden chill in US primary markets coinciding with the latest leg higher in yields is evidence that borrowing at current levels is becoming an increasingly unattractive proposition.

“We expect the cost of financing to rise gradually as companies refinance debt with higher coupons as more debt matures over time,” Barclays Plc credit strategists Zoso Davies and Jenny Avdoi wrote in a note dated Sept. 30.

The Fed’s hawkishness is also complicating the task for borrowers because it’s sending the dollar surging to multi-decade highs against many of its major peers, including the euro and the yen. That can push up costs for non-US issuers that need dollar financing, as well as tightening financial conditions around the world.

“Investors had reported record amounts of cash in our most recent quarterly surveys, but recent trading activity suggests an increase in client selling perhaps in part driven by the need to raise additional cash for anticipated redemptions,” emerging-market strategists including Donato Guarino at Citigroup Inc. wrote in a recent report. “In other words, the cash cushion may be diminishing, making any further market jolt more damaging to asset values.”

The average yield on corporate bonds globally across currencies and ratings recently topped 6% for the first time since 2009, according to a Bloomberg index.

“We are yet to see the bulk of the impact of rate rises on the economy,” said Pauline Chrystal, a portfolio manager at Kapstream Capital in Sydney. “We still expect to see a deterioration in activity, employment, and increase in defaults.”

Elsewhere in credit markets:

Asia

Deal flow in the Asian dollar bond market was muted on Monday with a week-long closure of Chinese markets for Golden Week and a holiday in South Korea.

Losses in Asian dollar bonds extended to a fifth consecutive quarter, the longest such stretch on record. The notes slumped 4.2% in the three months ended Sept. 30

Still, that is a smaller loss than the two previous quarters, following policy steps in China to help the nation’s troubled property sector

The latest sign of such stimulus came late last week, when people familiar with the matter said financial regulators told the biggest state-owned banks to provide financing worth at least $85 billion to the battered property sector

Chinese developer stocks and bonds rallied Monday after that news

Some dollar bonds of China Huarong are poised to extend gains Monday after the bad-debt manager announced last week plans to buy back certain offshore notes and redeem a perpetual note

Smaller brokerages are gaining business in Japan’s credit market after former top player SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. was affected by a trading scandal

Americas

US junk bonds are headed for the worst year-to-date losses on record.

In the investment-grade primary bond market, there were no new issuers on Friday, wrapping up an abysmal week that saw just $1.7 billion sold

The cruise sector is rebounding slower than expected with cruise line companies Carnival and Royal Caribbean seeing bond prices drop on Friday

Mortgage backed securities are presenting one of the most attractive entry points of the last 10 years given a combination of yield and low prepayment risk, an analyst wrote


EMEA

The region’s primary bond market missed expectations for issuance, at just over €15 billion ($14.7 billion), with Friday being the 39th day without sales this year.

Banks funding the acquisition of House of HR’s are likely to keep about a quarter of the deal on their balance sheets, adding to the billions of hung debt stuck on lenders’ books

In the UK, gilts have seen some respite after a recent selloff on optimism surrounding the government’s meeting with the Office of Budget Responsibility

Sustainable sales are setting records in Germany’s Schuldschein debt market, reaching more than €8 billion in the first three quarters of the year, topping previous full-year totals

JUSTIFYING MURDER OF UNARMED CIVILIANS
Cops Who Described Amber Alert Teen As A Threat To Officers Under Review For Her Killing

Sara Boboltz

Sat, October 1, 2022 

The California state Justice Department is investigating after a police pursuit involving an adult murder suspect and an Amber Alert subject ended with the minor’s death under murky circumstances east of Los Angeles on Tuesday.

San Bernardino County Sheriff Shannon Dicus initially said that the minor, 15-year-old Savannah Graziano, had likely been shooting at deputies and was clad in “tactical gear.” But on Wednesday, the department turned over its investigation to state authorities, as is required to do when an unarmed civilian is shot and killed by law enforcement.

The state’s attorney general’s office believes Savannah was likely unarmed, the Los Angeles Times reported Thursday. The office confirmed in a statement that it was reviewing the incident in accordance with Assembly Bill 1506, a 2020 law covering officer-involved shootings.

The girl’s father, Anthony John Graziano, was also shot dead at the scene after having led police on a lengthy highway chase in a white pickup truck.

Graziano, 45, was suspected of murdering his estranged wife Monday morning in a crime allegedly witnessed by his daughter.

The entire tragic incident has attracted controversy on social media after a local news station credulously recounted the sheriff’s version of events, describing the likelihood that Savannah was unarmed as a “stunning new twist.” It sparked renewed discussion on whether news media is generally too deferential to law enforcement, as it remains unclear whether Savannah was actually leaping out of the truck in order to seek help from the police when they ― perhaps mistakenly ― shot her.

The Amber Alert issued for Savannah on Monday described her as having been kidnapped by her father, and cautioned that he was “armed and dangerous.”

THIS IS THE KILLER KOP

I THOUGHT HE WAS THE BAD GUY

LOOKS LIKE A BAD GUY

An undated photo provided by the City of Fontana Police Department shows 45-year-old Anthony John Graziano. (Photo: Courtesy of City of Fontana Police Department via Associated Press)

In a Wednesday press conference, Sheriff Dicus said the police chase began when a resident spotted the white truck described in the alert around 10 a.m., prompting deputies to respond. Graziano then allegedly began firing at the deputies, hitting their windshield and disabling one police vehicle as he sped off. A firefight eventually ensued near an exit, and that’s when Graziano’s truck finally came to a halt.

At that time, the sheriff said, “a subject exit[ed] the passenger side of the vehicle wearing tactical gear” including what appeared to be a bulletproof vest and “tactical helmet.”

“That subject starts to run toward sheriff’s deputies and, during the gunfire, goes down,” Dicus said, adding that there was allegedly evidence that she had been “a participant” in the exchange of gunfire with deputies.

The chase stretched some 35 miles along a desert highway east of Los Angeles, near the town of Hesperia, according to The Associated Press.

A bullet hole is seen in a windshield outside Cypress Elementary School following Monday's nearby shooting, which left a mother dead. 

(Photo: MediaNews Group/Inland Valley Daily Bulletin via Getty Images via Getty Images)

A bullet hole is seen in a windshield outside Cypress Elementary School following Monday's nearby shooting, which left a mother dead. (Photo: MediaNews Group/Inland Valley Daily Bulletin via Getty Images via Getty Images)

Savannah’s mother, Tracy Martinez, identified Graziano as the one who shot her Monday before she died of her wounds, the AP reported, citing Fontana Police Sgt. Christian Surgent. Martinez had been shot in the town of Fontana, California, outside an elementary school during morning drop-offs.

Savannah had allegedly been sitting in the back seat of the white pickup when her father opened fire on her mother.

Surgent said Graziano and Martinez were in the midst of a divorce and were living separately, with Savannah and her father leaving behind Martinez and a younger child. He cast doubt over whether the teen went willingly with her father or was “actually abducted.”

“We haven’t been able to prove that just yet,” he told the AP.

Dicus had told reporters that an assault-style rifle had been found in the truck after the gunfight came to an end. Graziano was found dead in the driver’s seat, police said.

HOPE SO

Top Iran official warns protests could destabilize country





APTOPIX Iran

Two women drink a slushy while walking around in the old main bazaar of Tehran, Iran, Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Sun, October 2, 2022 

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran’s parliamentary speaker warned Sunday that protests over the death of a young woman in police custody could destabilize the country and urged security forces to deal harshly with those he claimed endanger public order, as countrywide unrest entered its third week.

Posts on social media showed there were scattered anti-government protests in Tehran and running clashes with security forces in other towns Sunday, even as the government has moved to block, partly or entirely, internet connectivity in Iran.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf told lawmakers that unlike the current protests, which he said aim to topple the government, previous demonstrations by teachers and retirees over pay were aimed at reforms, according to the legislative body's website.

“The important point of the (past) protests was that they were reform-seeking and not aimed at overthrowing" the system, said Qalibaf. “I ask all who have any (reasons to) protest not to allow their protest to turn into destabilizing and toppling" of institutions.

Thousands of Iranians have taken to the streets to protest the death of Mahsa Amini, 22, who had been detained by Iran's morality police in the capital Tehran for allegedly not adhering to Iran's strict Islamic dress code.

The protesters have vented their anger over the treatment of women and wider repression in the Islamic Republic. The nationwide demonstrations rapidly escalated into calls for the overthrow of the clerical establishment that has ruled Iran since its 1979 Islamic revolution.

Iranian state TV has reported that at least 41 protesters and police have been killed since the demonstrations began Sept. 17. An Associated Press count of official statements by authorities tallied at least 14 dead, with more than 1,500 demonstrators arrested.

Qalibaf, the parliamentary speaker, is a former influential commander in the paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard. Along with the president and the head of the judiciary, he is one of three ranking officials who deal with all important issues of the nation.

The three meet regularly and sometimes meet with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has final say on all state matters.

Qalibaf said he believes many of those taking part in recent protests had no intention of seeking to overthrow the government in the beginning and claimed foreign-based opposition groups were fomenting protests aimed at tearing down the system. Iranian authorities have not presented evidence for their allegations of foreign involvement in the protests.

“Creating chaos in the streets will weaken social integrity, jeopardizing the economy while increasing pressure and sanctions by the enemy,” he said, referring to longstanding crippling U.S. sanctions on Iran.

Qalibaf promised to “amend the structures and methods of the morality police” to prevent a recurrence of what happened to Amini. She died in the custody of the morality police. Her family alleged she was beaten, while officials claim she died of a heart attack.

His remarks came after a closed meeting of Parliament and a brief rally by lawmakers to voice support for Khamenei and the police, chanting “death to hypocrites,” a reference to Iranian opposition groups.

The statement by Qalibaf is seen as an appeal to Iranians to stop their protests while supporting police and the security apparatus.

Meanwhile, the hard-line Kayhan daily said Sunday that knife-carrying protesters attacked the newspaper building Saturday and shattered windows with rocks. It said they left when Guard members were deployed to the site.

On Saturday, protests continued on the Tehran University campus and in nearby neighborhoods and witnesses said they saw many girls waving their head scarves above their heads in a gesture of defiance. Social media carried videos purportedly showing similar protests at the Mashhad and Shiraz universities but The Associated Press could not independently verify their authenticity.

A protester near Tehran University, 19-year-old Fatemeh who only gave her first name for fear of repercussions, said she joined the demonstration “to stop this behavior by police against younger people especially girls.”

Abdolali, a 63-year-old teacher who also declined to give his last name, said he was shot twice in the foot by police. He said: “I am here to accompany and support my daughter. I once participated in the 1979 Islamic Revolution that promised justice and freedom; it is time to materialize them.”

Protests resumed on Sunday in several cities including Mashhad, according to social media reports, and Tehran’s Sharif Industrial University, according to the semiofficial Tasnim news agency. Witnesses said security was tight in the areas nearby Tehran University and its neighborhoods downtown as hundreds of anti-riot police and plain clothes with their cars and motorbikes were stationed on junctions and squares. The AP could not immediately verify the authenticity of the reports.

Also on Sunday, media outlets reported the death of another Revolutionary Guard member in the southeastern city of Zahedan. That brought to five the number of IRG members killed in an attack on a police station by gunmen that, according to state media, left 19 people dead.

It wasn't clear if the attack, which Iranian authorities said was carried out by separatists, was related to the anti-government protests.

Local media said a police officer also had died in the Kurdish city of Marivan, following injuries during clashes with protesters. The protests have drawn supporters from various ethnic groups, including Kurdish opposition movements in the northwest of Iran that operate along the border with neighboring Iraq.

Amini was an Iranian Kurd and the protests first erupted in Kurdish areas.

‘Woman. Life. Freedom.’ Boise rally targets Iranian regime in wake of worldwide protests

Kevin Fixler
Sat, October 1, 2022 

Nearly 100 members of Boise’s Iranian-American community and supporters rallied on the Idaho Capitol steps Saturday afternoon, one in a series of protests in major cities across the world sparked by the death of a young woman in the Iranian capital last month for allegedly defying the regime’s rules governing women’s public appearance.

“Woman! Life! Freedom!” demonstrators chanted in unison, demanding the end of Islamic law and the liberation of the Islamic Republic of Iran from its authoritarian leaders. “Democracy in Iran!”

Impassioned rally attendees waved mini-tricolor flags for the original state of Iran and brought homemade signs with messages including “Free Iran! Be our voice!” Others passed out printed images of Mahsa Amini, the 22-year-old Iranian woman who died Sept. 16 in Tehran under disputed circumstances, and also assembled a small memorial with flowers and candles dedicated to her on the Capitol steps

.

A small memorial for Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who was taken into custody for allegedly disobeying the nation’s dress code for women is assembled on the steps of the Idaho Capitol during a rally held by members of Boise’s Iranian-American community and supporters, on Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022.

“Say her name!” shouted attendees, taking turns leading the group and switching between chants in English and Farsi, the language of Western Iran. “Justice for Iran! Justice for Mahsa!”


Afagh Faramarzi, 30, of Meridian, helped organize Saturday’s hourlong event. She arrived as a teenager to the Treasure Valley from the south-central Iranian city of Shiraz, she told the Idaho Statesman.

Asal Syes, center left, and Afagh Faramarzi, with an Iranian flag, lead a chant during a rally at the Idaho Capitol against the treatment of women in Iran, on Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022. Protesters have been demonstrating against the Middle Eastern nation’s authoritarian government after the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who last month was taken into police custody for allegedly disobeying the nation’s dress code for women.

“I am angry. I cry a lot,” Faramarzi told rallygoers in welcoming remarks. “I am worried. I am hopeful. … I am a woman of Iran.”

She called on Idaho’s federal lawmakers to help advocate against the Iranian government and hold the Middle Eastern country’s leadership accountable.

U.S. Sen. Jim Risch, R-Idaho, is the ranking member on the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Last week, he joined fellow senators in introducing a bipartisan resolution condemning Amini’s death, designating it a “murder.”

“The murder of Mahsa Amini was a horrible reminder of the Iranian regime’s oppressive beliefs and gross violations of women’s basic human rights,” Risch said in a statement. “The Iranian people bravely protesting her death demonstrate their desire for a more peaceful and free Iran.”

The U.S. Department of State officially labels Iran a brutal, dangerous regime, and “the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism.”

Amini was arrested last month by Iran’s so-called “morality police,” who strictly enforce the Muslim country’s dress code for women. Since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, women and girls over the age of 9 have been required to wear loose fitting clothes and headscarves, known as hijabs, out in public.

Amini reportedly traveled to the nation’s capital with family from her home in the Kurdistan Province near the border with Iraq. Following her arrest, police said she collapsed after suffering a heart attack and fell into a coma. She died at a hospital three days later.

Members of Amini’s family reject the narrative from state authorities that she had underlying health conditions and have instead said she was beaten and tortured. Daily protests have raged throughout the country since, with police arresting hundreds of people, with still dozens more reportedly dead.

In the wake of ongoing protests, Iran’s regime also has worked to block the internet and reportedly detained dozens of journalists, including Niloufar Hamedi, the reporter who first brought Amini’s case to light.

Since 2000, 345 refugees from Iran have arrived to Idaho, though none in the last year, according to the Idaho Office For Refugees. The state’s largest resettlement cities include Boise, Twin Falls and Pocatello.

Members of Boise’s Iranian-American community and supporters rallied at the Idaho Capitol against the treatment of women in Iran, on Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022. Protesters have been demonstrating against Iran’s authoritarian government after the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who last month was taken into police custody for allegedly disobeying the nation’s dress code for women.

The Biden administration last week committed to admitting up to 125,000 refugees into the U.S. from across the world through next summer. Combined, the grouped regions of Europe and Central Asia, and the Near East/South Asia are allotted up to 50,000 slots.

For 2022, the U.S. also set its annual cap at 125,000, though the number of refugees who have entered the country this year is about 15,000, the Washington, D.C.-based Migration Policy Institute reports.

More than 1,200 of those refugees from 18 countries, primarily from Afghanistan, Ukraine and the Democratic Republic of Congo, resettled in Idaho over the past year. The Idaho Office For Refugees expects about 1,075 more refugee arrivals in the state over the next year, which is on par for averages in Idaho over the past 20 years, according to Holly Beech, a spokesperson for the agency.

“Here in Idaho and across the country we’ve seen a renewed sense of urgency to help displaced people, which has reached record highs,” she told the Statesman by email. “A healthy resettlement program provides a pathway for people to rebuild their lives in safety, reunite with family, and create stronger communities and economies.”

Iran presents both an opportunity and a challenge as mass protests erupt

Arthur I. Cyr
Sat, October 1, 2022 

Arthur I. Cyr

The enormous mass public demonstrations in Iran could bring a change in regime. The fundamentalist Islamic rulers of the nation must be worried. A large number of cities across the country are experiencing the ongoing protests, though estimates of just how many vary.

The immediate spark for this important development is the troubling death of Mahsa Amini, a young woman of 22, while in police custody. Authorities allegedly arrested her for improper wearing of the headscarf required by the government.

Iran continues to be a focus of frustration for United States foreign policy. The fundamentalist Islamic regime in Tehran has long voiced hostility to Israel as well as the U.S., punctuated from time to time with public threats of apocalyptic destruction.

Consequently, the steady expansion of Iran’s uranium enrichment program causes understandable concern.

The P5+1 formation is the principal international group dealing with Iran. Nations involved are Britain, China, France, Russia and the U.S. – the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council - plus Germany.

In November 2013, the group, after considerable challenging diplomatic effort, reached an agreement with Tehran. The accord increased international monitoring of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program in exchange for lifting some economic sanctions. The Trump administration abruptly ended this nuclear agreement.

Read more: How protests in Iran over Mahsa Amini's death 'forever moved the debate' over women's rights

Immediately after World War II, Soviet troops occupied northern Iran. The Truman administration successfully pressured Moscow to withdraw. Later, British and CIA operatives overthrew the elected government of Mohammad Mosaddegh.

In 1979, revolutionaries overthrew the pro-U.S. Iran regime and Islamic fundamentalism ascended. This abruptly ended Iran’s previous posture as a close and notably influential American ally. Over the intervening decades, the breach has continued.

After ousting the autocratic Shah of Iran, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, Islamic militants seized the American embassy, took hostages and held them for months. The lengthy crisis poisoned Tehran-Washington relations and helped Ronald Reagan defeat incumbent President Jimmy Carter in 1980. During the Reagan administration, the U.S. supported Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in a lengthy eight-year war with Iran.

A demonstrator raises his arms and makes the victory sign during a protest for Mahsa Amini, a woman who died after being arrested by the Islamic republic's "morality police" in Tehran on Sept. 19, 2022.

Related: Iran cracks down on protests after Mahsa Amini's death in 'morality police' custody

The 2009 presidential election sparked mass demonstrations against alleged election fraud. Use of cell phones to report the demonstrations revealed broad public discontent. Dictators can no longer completely suppress information, though Tehran is trying.

The Shah’s modernization policies over the long term had fostered a relatively well-educated population. There is a sizable middle class. The urban population has been expanding steadily.

Protesters chant slogans during a protest over the death of a woman detained by the morality police in downtown Tehran, Iran, Wednesday, Sept. 21, 2022.

Parvin’s Hopeland: An American dream powered by hope

Women play influential roles in a wide range of professions. The relatively modern economy – and society – contrast with other nations where fundamentalist Islam plays a major or dominant role.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Jimmy Carter’s national security adviser, remained an interested – and often acutely perceptive - analyst of Iran developments. Until his death in 2017, he regularly noted publicly that the fundamentalist mullahs running the country face very fundamental problems.

Without a new nuclear agreement, sanctions on Iran could eventually destroy the economy. Brzezinski believed Iran could move in the same direction as Turkey. That nation constitutionally is a secular state, and remains a faithful member of NATO, even though a fundamentalist political party controls the presidency.

Nearly a decade before the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, former President Richard Nixon in his book “Beyond Peace” argued that invading provocative Saddam Hussein’s Iraq would be a mammoth blunder, leading to expansion of the influence of Iran, our actual regional diplomatic and strategic rival

History and current unfolding events confirm President Nixon’s insight, and should guide policy.

Arthur I. Cyr is the author of “After the Cold War – American Foreign Policy, Europe and Asia.” Contact him at acyr@carthage.edu.

This article originally appeared on The Record: Iran presents an opportunity and a challenge after Mahsa Amini's death

THIS SURE DON'T LOOK LIKE SCRANTON, JILL
Trump: 'King' to some in Pennsylvania, but will it help GOP?

LOOK JILL A PRIDE SEAT

- House Minority leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., speaks at DMI Companies in Monongahela, Pa., Sept. 23, 2022. House Republicans unveiled their own campaign agenda, hoping their “Commitment to America” can tap into the same political sentiment former President Donald Trump used to attract not just Republican but independent and former Democratic voters to the polls. But it’s unclear if the support that drove Trump to the White House will turn out this fall.

 (AP Photo/Barry Reeger, File)More

LISA MASCARO
Sun, October 2, 2022

MONONGAHELA, Pa. (AP) — The Trump-Pence sign still hangs on the older building off Main Street in this historic town, a lasting vestige of the campaign fervor that roused voters, including many who still believe the falsehood that the former president didn’t lose in 2020 and hope he'll run in 2024.

The enthusiasm for Donald Trump’s unique brand of nationalist populism has cut into traditional Democratic strongholds like Monongahela, about 25 miles south of Pittsburgh, where brick storefronts and a Slovak fellowship hall dot Main Street and church bells mark the hours of the day. Republicans are counting on political nostalgia for the Trump era as they battle Democrats this fall in Pennsylvania in races for governor, the U.S. Senate and control of Congress.

“Trump just came along and filled the empty space,” said Matti Gruzs, who stitches old blue jeans into tote bags, place mats and other creations she sells at the weekly Farmer’s Market downtown. “He’s still the king, and the kingmaker.”

Against the backdrop of this picturesque place, House Republicans recently released their campaign agenda, hoping their “Commitment to America” can tap into the same political sentiment Trump used to attract not just Republican but independent and former Democratic voters. But it’s unclear whether the support that propelled Trump to the White House will be there on Election Day, Nov. 8.

Pennsylvania Senate race tightens



Perhaps even more challenging for the GOP is whether Trump’s false claims of voter fraud will cost the party if people believe, as the defeated president claims without evidence, the elections are rigged. Some may just decide to sit out the election.

“It started out as a low-enthusiasm race,” said Dave Ball, the Republican Party chairman in Washington County, which includes much of western Pennsylvania.

Ball said enthusiasm has been “building rapidly” — his main metric for voter interest in the elections is the demand for lawn signs. “We were wondering, at one point, you know, we were going to see any,” he said. “Right now, I can’t get my hands on enough.”

But Amy Michalic, who was born and raised in Monongahela and works the polls during elections, said she hears skepticism from some voters, particularly Trump supporters, “who think my vote doesn’t count.”

Trump's claims of fraud have no basis in fact. Dozens of court cases filed by Trump and his supporters have been dismissed or rejected by judges across the nation, but he continues to challenge Joe Biden’s victory. In every state, officials have attested to the accuracy of their elections, and Trump’s own attorney general at the time, Bill Barr, said in 2020 there was no voter fraud on a scale to change the outcome.

Michalic reminds skeptical voters in her hometown of the importance of voting and notes that in 2016, no one thought Trump could win. "Look what he did, he took Pennsylvania,” she said.

At the Farmer’s Market on a recent afternoon, voters shared concerns that many people in the United States voice this election year — about the high prices of everything, about finding workers and good-paying jobs, about the culture wars.

“Where do you start?” said Michelle DeHosse, wearing an American flag shirt as she helped vendors set up stands.

DeHosse, who runs a custom-screen print and embroidery shop on Main Street, said she has had trouble hiring employees since the pandemic. While she said just cannot afford the $20 an hour and health care benefits many applicants demand, she understands that many workers need both. “It’s the economy that’s the biggest concern,” she said.

Democrats were sparse among the voters, who didn’t seem to have strong feelings for their choices this fall for either of the Senate candidates, Democrat John Fetterman or the Trump-backed Republican Mehmet Oz. Several said they probably would vote party line.

“I don’t like either one of them,” said Carolyn McCuen, 84, a Republican enjoying sunset with friends and McDonald’s coffee at a picnic table by the river.

“Me either,” said another Republican, Sam Reo, 76, a retired mechanical engineer, playing oldies from the portable speaker he sets up for the group.

Both still plan to vote. Support for the GOP candidate for governor, Doug Mastriano, who was outside the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, can be seen in the giant signs along Lincoln Highway, an east-west route across the state.

Mastriano is a “folk hero around here,” said Gruzs, who recalled his regular updates broadcast during the pandemic.

A history buff who home-schooled her children, Gruzs hasn’t missed a vote since she cast her first presidential ballot for Ronald Reagan. The same goes for her husband, Sam, a plumber. They moved here two decades ago from Baltimore, for a better life. Now a grandmother, she spends her days working on her crafts and listening to far-right broadcasts – Steve Bannon, Charlie Kirk and others.

She is not a fan of House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif. and isn't convinced he has the toughness needed to push the party’s ideas forward. But she did attend the event at a nearby manufacturing facility where lawmakers outlined the GOP agenda. She was heartened to see far-right Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene at the event with McCarthy, and made sure to shake Greene’s hand.

“If she’s behind him,” she said, trailing off. “It looked today he had enough behind him, pushing him.”

Trump remains popular, and the sign hanging on the building off Main Street from his 2020 campaign was far from the only one still visible in the state, two years since that election.

Several of the voters dismissed the investigations against Trump as nothing more than a “witch hunt” designed to keep him from running again office, despite the potentially serious charges being raised in state and federal inquiries. Some voters said they didn't believe the attack on the Capitol was an insurrection, despite the violence waged by pro-Trump supporters trying to overturn Biden’s election.

Those views stand in contrast to the hard facts of Jan. 6: More than 850 people have been arrested and charged in the insurrection, some given lengthy sentences by the courts for their involvement. Hours before the siege, Trump told a rally crowd to “fight like hell” for his presidency. Loyalists soon broke into the Capitol, fighting in hand-to-hand combat with police, interrupting Congress as it was certifying the election results. Five people, including a Trump supporter shot by police, died in the immediate aftermath.

And if Trump runs again?

“I wish he would,” said McCuen, a retired church secretary. “But I don’t know if he will.”

—-

Follow AP for full coverage of the midterms at https://apnews.com/hub/2022-midterm-elections and on Twitter, https://twitter.com/ap_politics

The Biggest Argument For Peak Oil


Editor OilPrice.com
Sun, October 2, 2022 

It’s been two years since British oil and gas supermajor BP Plc. (NYSE: BP) dramatically declared that the world was already past Peak Oil demand. In the company’s 2020 Energy Outlook, chief executive Bernard Looney pledged that BP would increase its renewables spending twentyfold to $5 billion a year by 2030 and “... not enter any new countries for oil and gas exploration”.

That announcement came as a bit of a shocker given how aggressive BP has been in exploring new oil and gas frontiers.

When many analysts talk about Peak Oil, they are usually referring to that point in time when global oil demand enters a phase of terminal and irreversible decline. According to BP, this point has already come and gone, with oil demand slated to fall by at least 10% in the current decade and by as much as 50% over the next two. BP noted that historically, energy demand has risen steadily in tandem with global economic growth with few interruptions; however, the COVID-19 crisis and increased climate action might have permanently altered that playbook.

However, BP has been forced to do a mea culpa after it became clear that the COVID-19 pandemic that began more than two years ago has not resulted in a significant reduction in oil demand.

In its Energy Outlook 2022 edition, BP has revised down its forecast for global economic growth saying global GDP will only contract 1.5% by 2025 from 2019 levels compared to its earlier projection of a 2.5% contraction.

BP notes that its former grim outlook was drawn up prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine-- another black swan event--which has driven global energy prices higher and cast an uncertain shadow over Russia’s oil and gas sector in recent months.

BP has predicted that oil demand will fall by 74% from 2021-2050, with global oil demand clocking in at a mere 24 million barrels per day by 2050. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a similar forecast under a net-zero scenario though its trajectory of how the world will get there is different from BP’s. BP is, however, by no means the most bearish about global oil demand three decades out, with the Energy Watch Group predicting that oil demand will have virtually disappeared by that date.

Below is a table published by the Energy Intelligence Group that compares oil demand predictions by 28 organizations including a handful of Big Oil companies.

Oil Demand to 2050

(million b/d)

Peak

2030

2040

2050

2021-50

Energy Watch Group (0 Gt)

<2021

72

31

0

-100%

UNPRI 1.5 (2 Gt)

2025

88

46

20

-79

IEA Net-Zero (0 Gt)

<2021

72

43

24

-74

BP Net-Zero (2 Gt)

<2021

90

55

24

-74

UNPRI Forecast Policy (9 Gt)

2026

99

63

37

-61

IPCC 1.5°C Low Overshoot (1 Gt)

<2021

86

63

41

-56

Total Rupture

<2021

88

59

41

-56

Equinor Rebalance (9 Gt)

<2021

88

61

46

-51

BP Accelerated (10 Gt)

2025

96

72

47

-50

IPCC 1.5°C High Overshoot (6 Gt)

<2021

99

78

53

-44

DNV (19 Gt)

2024

85

69

49

-48

IEA Sustainable Development (8 Gt)

<2021

88

65

57

-39

Total Momentum

<2021

94

74

63

-33

IPCC 2°C (14 Gt)

2030

100

88

70

-26

IEA Announced Pledges (21 Gt)

2030

96

84

77

-18

BP New Momentum (31 Gt)

2030

101

92

81

-14

Equinor Reform (24 Gt)

2030

100

92

84

-11

Shell Sky 1.5 (18 Gt)

2025

100

94

85

-10

IPCC 2.5°C (29 Gt)

2040

105

107

99

+5

Shell Islands (34 Gt)

2040

102

104

102

+8

IEA Base (34 Gt)

2040

103

104

103

+9

IPCC 3°C (38 Gt)

2040

104

108

106

+13

Exxon

>2040

104

107

107

+14

Opec (34 Gt)

>2045

107

108

108

+15

Equinor Rivalry (32 Gt)

>2050

107

110

110

+17

IPCC 4°C (52 Gt)

2040

107

111

111

+18

Shell Waves (35 Gt)

2040

111

119

111

+18

US EIA (43 Gt)

>2050

109

117

126

+34%

Projected oil demand to 2030-50 in million barrels per day in a range of scenarios. When available, projected CO2 emissions in billion tons are shown in parenthesis (2021: 34 Gt). Source: BP, DNV, Equinor, EWG, Exxon Mobil, IEA, IPCC, Shell, TotalEnergies, UNPRI, US DOE
Source: Energy Intelligence Group

You will notice that no less than 10 organizations, including OPEC, Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA), have predicted that global oil demand will actually grow as we go along and not shrink as most analysts have forecast.

Related: American Energy Bills Are Set To Soar This Winter

To be fair, it’s hard to be bullish about the long-term oil demand trend given that climate mandates are unlikely to ease, which coupled with the EV explosion as well as rapidly improving efficiency for gas-powered vehicles, are sure to limit oil consumption. Indeed, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) recently warned that keeping a 1.5ºC or even 2ºC warming limit in sight will require a big strengthening of current policies. In fact, Paris-compliant energy scenarios assume oil and gas demand will fall by respectively 40%-80% and 20%-60% between now and 2050 while gas demand needs to peak from 2025-2030.

Meanwhile, a plethora of innovations, such as gasoline direct fuel injection, turbocharged engines, automatic transmissions with more gear ratios, and stop/start systems that shut off the engine instead of allowing it to idle has improved fuel efficiency of new vehicles quite dramatically.

New U.S. cars now travel nearly twice as far per gallon as they did at the start of the Obama administration, while light trucks and SUVs have increased efficiency by a more modest 59%. About 26% of crude production is consumed by the transport sector.

EVs may pose an even bigger threat to the fossil fuel industry over the long run.

According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance( BNEF) electric and fuel cell vehicles are already subtracting about 1.7 million daily barrels from global consumption, but will displace a whopping 21 million barrels per day in oil demand by 2050. BNEF estimates that road fuel oil demand will peak in 2027, but it will take another decade for the impact of advancements to be materially felt. Emissions will almost halve by 2050, but the sector will still be nowhere near net-zero. In the best case scenario, by the 2050s, fossil-derived road fuel demand will fall below levels last seen in the early 1970s. In this case, oil-related emissions will drop to 3.4 gigatons CO2 by 2050, down from almost 6.5Gt in 2019.

Overall, oil demand might remain steady or even grow appreciably over the next couple of years, maybe through 2030. The long-term outlook, however, looks murkier, depending on whom you listen to.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for PEAK OIL 

Crisis within crisis

Review of Dario Gentili, The Age of Precarity: Endless Crisis as an Art of Government

Francois Zammit

Dario Gentili, The Age of Precarity: Endless Crisis as an Art of Government, trans. Stefania Porcelli in collaboration with Clara Pope (London and New York: Verso, 2021). 136pp., £12.99 pb., 978-1-78873-380-9

This is the new English translation of a book first published in Italian in 2018. In a world that is still struggling with the crisis of the pandemic and its aftershocks, the 2018 Italian edition feels prescient and the English edition timely, explaining the role of crisis in the contemporary world and giving some clarity to understanding why governments acted in the manner that they did in the face of the Covid-19 crisis.

Gentili identifies precarious living as a direct consequence of the role of crisis as a form of governmentality. He argues that under conditions of constant crisis and neoliberal forms of governance, precarity becomes a form of life defining every aspect of our lives. This implies a crisis within a crisis: the critical conditions enacted by governments as a response to collective forms of crisis place individual lives in a state of constant uncertainty and ruptures. This process transforms existence itself into a crisis.

The book is divided into three parts: Krisis, Modern Age, and Forms of Life. Gentili engages in a genealogical exercise to explore and uncover the origins and development of the meaning of crisis, showing that this meaning has changed from antiquity through modernity to the present. Etymologically ‘crisis’ is presented as meaning judgment, election or choice but also separation or division. Thus for the Ancient Greeks, crisis is related to two types of decision-making processes and judgements: a juridical type and a medical type. Placed together these two dimensions uncover the contemporary formulation crisis, which is a biopolitical one, whereby medical discourse becomes a political discourse.

From the outset, Gentili shows the originality and poignancy of his reading of crisis. He states that we should be looking at crisis not as a concept but as a function, a dispositif. He argues that crisis functions as a means to govern by the established order of power to respond to an urgent or present need. Thus, the genealogical project undertaken by Gentili is not simply about the meaning of crisis, but is instead an uncovering of the notion of dispositif as developed by authors like Foucault, Deleuze and Agamben, leading towards a reading and understanding of crisis as a dispositif. Crisis has a governing function that allows the order of power to maintain its standing and to curtail any threats against it. This quality of crisis supports Gentili’s claim that crisis is a form of dispositif that plays a dominant role in contemporary society.

The major significance of Gentili’s argument lies in how he reveals the proximity between the medical role of crisis and its function as a tool to govern, thus showing that, in its contemporary iteration, crisis is a biopolitical dispositif that is enforced by the dominant force of the contemporary world, neoliberalism. In this way, the book is also a critical analysis of how neoliberalism has an ability to govern, and maintain its primacy, by controlling life itself. The book applies a radical rhetoric that reveals the ability of neoliberalism to control human life through various measures, and more unnervingly its potential for creating new forms of life, which serve to maintain and reinforce its stranglehold over society and its institutions. In this context, precarity is not just understood as a type of labour or industrial relation but is shown to be a state of being that defines the value and potential of those who fall within its bounds.

There are many works and authors that tackle the issues raised by neoliberal policies. What Gentili presents, though, is a more profound reading of neoliberalism and its effects through critically engaging with its ideological and theoretical foundations. By looking back at Margaret Thatcher’s famous claim that ‘There is No Alternative’, Gentili shows how neoliberalism has created a system in which crisis loses its function as an engine of change and instead becomes a means of reproducing and reaffirming the neoliberal agenda. The various cycles of economic crisis are not a way of rethinking our economies and politics, but a means of governmentality by which people are forced to change to suit the needs of those in power. This is why Gentili defines neoliberal crisis as a biopolitical crisis, because it opens up opportunities to regulate and mould people’s conduct and way of life.

During the 2008 financial crisis, there were extensive calls for a complete overhaul of the financial sector and a rethinking of the economic model. There was a widespread consensus on the need to regulate the financial market and the way that banks conducted their business. Although these sectors were the guilty party who caused the crisis and upheaval, ultimately it was the people who had to withstand the worst of the consequences and foot the bill. Apart from losing their savings, their jobs and sometimes their homes, whole segments of the population were coerced into giving up their rights and their quality of life in the name of austerity. Austerity was the pharmakon, the medicine needed to cure the illness. New policies regulated the way that people had to behave, and in the meantime, eliminated the prospects and opportunities that people came to rely on, like a pension that guarantees a good quality of life. A similar scenario is also unfolding in the post-Covid world. All these events illustrate how neoliberal biopolitics functions.

Gentili’s work also offers a critical evaluation of Hayek’s politico-economic theories to show why precarity is the logical and unavoidable consequence of Hayek’s theoretical framework. For Hayek, the market is not a human institution but a cosmic order. The free market does not follow the principles of an economic order, which can be rationalised and is humanly driven, but instead it follows the structures of a cosmos. For Hayek, the universe is designed as a competitive order with embedded principles and laws that are unavoidable because they are reality itself. Living in a constant state of competition is thus the only way of living because this is how the universe we inhabit functions.

The enterprise of the self is not about free enterprise anymore. If one is forced into self-enterprise, then that is no longer a free enterprise. This analysis emphatically explains the false myth of the gig economy as a disruptive and liberating mode of work. Because of economic hardships or loss of employment, many find themselves having to take up roles as ‘associates’ or ‘partners’ to business platforms. These working conditions force those who enter into them to constantly compete with other individuals who are offering the same service and thus into inhumane working hours and conditions to make money. As Gentili observes, in a world in which everyone is your competition and work is an individualised and solitary activity, the possibility of class consciousness and class unity is drastically diminished, leading to an erosion of labour conditions and precarity becoming the norm.

The Age of Precarity offers an insightful reading of our human condition under the rule of neoliberalism. Gentili’s work offers compelling reasons why, if we want to find ways of improving the conditions of the people, we need to think outside of the neoliberal framework and cannot satisfy ourselves with merely reforming it.

PDF

SPECTACULAR CAPITAL

Crypto holds steady in volatile 3rd quarter

Crypto 'may have hit the ultimate bottom months ago,' analyst says

David Hollerith
·Senior Reporter
Sat, October 1, 2022 

2022 hasn’t been kind to crypto buyers, but the major swoon earlier this year has a silver lining that might prove to benefit other risk investors.

Following a widespread sell off in Q1, according to Coinmarketcap, crypto’s total market capitalization dropped by more than half (-56%) in the second quarter. However, since July, crypto’s total market capitalization is up 7%.

“We may have hit the ultimate bottom months ago because of cascading liquidations," Thomas Dunleavy, senior market analyst with Messari, told Yahoo Finance. "The market is down to only the true believers at this point. Most of the sellers seemed to have left."

With the rise of interest rates by central banks, crypto de-leveraged in a big way starting in May with the collapse of the $40 billion Terra ecosystem followed by the hedge fund Three Arrows Capital, lenders Voyager, Celsius and others. Major crypto executives including Genesis Trading's Michael Moro, Kraken's CEO Jesse Powell, and Sam Trabucco of FTX's affiliated trading firm, Alameda Research, also resigned.

A mural is painted on a wall during the North American Bitcoin Conference held at the James L Knight Center on January 19, 2022 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Celsius Network's CEO Alex Mashinsky also left his position, citing that he regretted how his continued role during the firm's bankruptcy had "become an increasing distraction."

Year-to-date, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remain some of biggest losers among risk assets, seeing drawdowns 60% for bitcoin and as high as 84% for other coins like Avalanche (AVAX).

But in Q3, Bitcoin was little changed (+1%) while the Nasdaq (^IXIC) fell 2.7%, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 4%, and the Dow (DJI) fell 5.4% as of market close Friday.

And while bitcoin hasn't proven to be an inflation hedge that promoters said it was, the asset class — dominated by speculation worsening macro conditions — could continue to push crypto as a leading indicator for how much risk investors are taking.

"A crypto rally is certainly no guarantee, but it's always a good leading indicator," Farrell said.

VanEck portfolio manager Pranav Kanade noted that crypto's performance in the current bear market does not feel as existential as previous rough patches.

“In the 2018 to 2019 bear market, it was not clear that the space was going to survive," Kanade said. "This time around, during the drawdown from the market’s peak in December, there’s a feeling of inevitability in the ecosystem."


Kanade added that whether crypto investing moves beyond speculation depends on whether crypto teams can attract more users to various blockchains. Furthermore, for those apps to work, blockchains need to scale their throughput (transactions per second).

“Crypto makes up less than 50 basis points of all global assets today and there’s about 2.5 million daily users of blockchains today," he explained. "But there’s more than 4 billion people with smartphones. For market caps to grow, daily active users need to grow."

And while Ethereum’s Merge upgrade did nothing for scaling throughput, the market has interpreted the move in the right direction.

Ether (ETH-USD), up 26% from $1,057 on July 1 to $1,339 Friday afternoon, has outmatched bitcoin an most other asset's performances since July.

“Now we know how a lot of these chains like Ethereum, Solana or Cosmos are going to do it, so now it's just a race to get there first,” Kanade said.

—

David Hollerith is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance covering the cryptocurrency and stock markets. Follow him on Twitter at @DsHollers

Coinbase users were unable to withdraw

funds to US bank accounts for six hours

Dado Ruvic / reuters

Kris Holt

·Contributing Reporter

Sun, October 2, 2022 

Coinbase users were unable to carry out US bank account transactions for around six hours on Sunday. An issue with the Automated Clearing House Network, which is used for electronic transfers between bank accounts in the country, emerged just before 7AM ET. The company said on its status page that it identified the problem, described as a "major outage," by 8:23AM and resolved it by 12:41PM.

During the outage, users were still able to buy cryptocurrency with a debit card or PayPal account, as Decrypt noted. However, they weren't able to make withdrawals to a US bank account.

“We’ve fully resolved this issue and ACH transfers are now processing. We apologize for the inconvenience,” Coinbase wrote on Twitter. The company said users' funds were safe during the outage (at least if you don't factor in the volatility of the crypto market).

As Web3 is Going Great points out, Coinbase is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the US. It's in seventh place worldwide in terms of trading volume, per CoinCecko. At the time of writing, Coinbase users had traded $572 million over the previous 24 hours.

Spectacular Capitalism | Minor Compositions

https://www.minorcompositions.info/?p=56

Spectacular capitalism is the dominant mythology of capitalism that disguises its internal logic

 and denies the macroeconomic reality of the actually existing capitalist world.

IN THE HOOD

Video shows a rare brawl between a pod of orcas and 2 humpback whales in the Pacific Ocean

Hannah Getahun

Sun, October 2, 2022 

Bigg’s orcas clash with humpback whale “Reaper”Mollie Naccarato, Sooke Coastal Explorations, PWWA

• Whale watchers spotted an unusual encounter between transient orcas and humpback whales off the coast of Washington.

• The Pacific Whale Watch Association said the fight lasted three hours before the whales disappeared.

• One of the humpback whales, Hydra, was spotted on Sunday in good condition.

Tails slapping. Fins flying. And angry whales disappearing into the thick fog.

Fights between Bigg's orcas and humpback whales are rarely seen, but a whale-watching group witnessed a three-hour brawl on Thursday in the Salish Sea off the coast of Washington state.

The Pacific Whale Watching Association documented the skirmish in a video, which shows the large group of orcas and whales jumping and splashing in the water.

 

"I'm still trying to wrap my head around it because it was absolutely unbelievable," Mollie Naccarato, captain for Sooke Coastal Explorations, said in a press release. "At first the orcas seemed to be chasing the humpbacks, but then when it seemed there was space between them, the humpbacks would go back toward the orcas."

According to the Pacific Whale Watching Association, Bigg's orcas — or transient orcas — are known to feed on marine mammals like seals, sea lions, and porpoises, but there has never been a fatality between orcas and humpback whales in the Salish Sea.

As a result of protections for humpback whales in the Salish Sea and a record number of Bigg's orca in recent years, encounters between the two could become more common as their populations grow.

Naturalists identified the orcas and whales, the release said. One of the humpbacks, named Hydra, was spotted Sunday with minimal damage from the skirmish, Erin Gless, Executive Director of PWWA, told Insider.

"Today one of our PWWA captains, Joe Zelwietro of Eagle Wing Tours, spotted Hydra on their tour. He said she looked no worse for wear, a huge relief for me, as she's one of my favorite humpback whales!" Gless told Insider.