SILVER LINING 
Report links climate change to increase in Major League Baseball home runs
By Doug Cunningham


New York Yankees Aaron Judge hits a solo home run in the first inning against the San Francisco Giants in the 2023 MLB Opening Day baseball game at Yankee Stadium in March. According to a new research report published Friday, Judge may have had help with his feat from today's warming climate. 

John Angelillo/UPI | License Photo

April 7 (UPI) -- Is climate change sending more home run balls over the fence in Major League Baseball?

A new study published Friday says the hotter air from climate change accounts for hundreds more home runs per year.

According to a study in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, more than 500 home runs since 2010 "are attributable to historical warming."

The report was written by Dartmouth College researchers Christopher W. Callahan, Nathaniel J. Dominy, Jeremy M. DeSilva, and Justin S. Mankin.

"We show that global warming has increased home runs in baseball by reducing game time air density," they wrote. "Without gameplay adaptations, future warming will intensify this effect alongside other climate impacts."

Their report said that several hundred additional home runs per season are projected due to future warming.

Major League Baseball has seen a long-term increase in home runs since the 1980s, and this newest study suggests the warming caused by climate change is adding to that increase.

How did they reach this conclusion?

"The ideal gas law tells us that air density is inversely proportional to temperature (Clapeyron, 1835). Ballistics tells us that the trajectory of a batted ball is influenced by temperature via its effect on density," the researchers wrote. "All else being equal, warmer air is less dense, and a batted ball will carry farther."

The data used was observations from 100,000 Major League Baseball games and 220,000 individual batted balls to show that higher temperatures substantially increase home runs.

The authors of the study said they isolated human-caused warming with scientific climate models.

If the major leagues want to counteract the climate change effect on home runs, the researchers say they could use adaptations such as building domes over stadiums or shifting day games to night games to reduce temperature's effects on home runs.

"Our results point to the reality that even the elite billion-dollar sports industry is vulnerable to unexpected impacts. Greenhouse gas mitigation and climate adaptation are a priority not only to reduce the large-scale loss and damage associated with extreme climate events, but also to avoid pervasive (and sometimes subtle) changes to recreation and leisure activities enjoyed by people," the Dartmouth College researchers wrote.

AP PHOTO ESSAY

Climate change adding 50 homers a year in MLB, study says | AP News

Spike in major league home runs tied to climate change

More than 500 home runs since 2010 due to warmer, thinner air caused by global warming

Peer-Reviewed Publication

DARTMOUTH COLLEGE

 

IMAGE: INCREASE IN AVERAGE NUMBER OF HOME RUNS PER YEAR FOR EACH AMERICAN MAJOR LEAGUE BALLPARK WITH EVERY 1-DGREE CELSIUS INCREASE IN GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. view more 

CREDIT: CHRISTOPHER CALLAHAN

In the history of Major League Baseball, first came the low-scoring dead-ball era, followed by the modern live-ball era characterized by power hitters such as Babe Ruth and Henry "Hank" Aaron. Then, regrettably, was the steroid era of the 1990s and early 2000s.

Now, could baseball be on the cusp of a "climate-ball" era where higher temperatures due to global warming increasingly determine the outcome of a game?

A new Dartmouth College study suggests it may be. A report in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society found that more than 500 home runs since 2010 can be attributed to higher-than-average temperatures resulting from climate change — with several hundred more home runs per season to come with future warming.

While the researchers attribute only 1% of recent home runs to climate change, they found that rising temperatures could account for 10% or more of home runs by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions and climate change continue unabated.

"There's a very clear physical mechanism at play in which warmer temperatures reduce the density of air. Baseball is a game of ballistics, and a batted ball is going to fly farther on a warm day," said senior author Justin Mankin, an assistant professor of geography.

The researchers analyzed more than 100,000 major league games and 220,000 individual hits to correlate the number of home runs with the occurrence of unseasonably warm temperatures. They then estimated the extent to which the reduced air density that results from higher temperatures was the driving force in the number of home runs on a given day compared to other games.

Lead author Christopher Callahan, a doctoral candidate in geography at Dartmouth who conceived of the study, said the researchers accounted for factors such as the use of performance-enhancing drugs, the construction of bats and balls, and the adoption of cameras, launch analytics, and other technology intended to optimize a batter's power and distance.

"We asked whether there are more home runs on unseasonably warm days than on unseasonably cold days during the course of a season," Callahan said. "We're able to compare those days with the implicit assumption that the other factors affecting batter performance don't vary day to day or are affected if a day is unseasonably warm or cold."

"We don't think temperature is the dominant factor in the increase in home runs — batters are now primed to hit balls at optimal speeds and angles," Callahan said. "That said, temperature matters and we've identified its effect. While climate change has been a minor influence so far, this influence will substantially increase by the end of the century if we continue to emit greenhouse gases and temperatures rise."

The researchers examined each major league ballpark in the United States to gauge how the average number of home runs per year could rise with each 1-degree Celsius increase in the global average temperature. The actual number of runs per season due to temperature could be higher or lower depending on individual gameday conditions.

They found that the Chicago Cubs' open-air Wrigley Field — which hosts only a limited number of night games — would experience the largest spike with more than 15 home runs per season, while the Tampa Bay Rays' domed Tropicana Field would remain level at one home run or less no matter how hot it gets outside. The Boston Red Sox's iconic Fenway Park and the home of their archrivals the New York Yankees fall in the middle and would experience nearly the same effect as temperatures rise.

Night games would lessen the influence that temperature and air density have on the distance a ball travels, and covered stadiums such as Tropicana Field would nearly eliminate it, the researchers report. Curbing the rise in home runs — and thus the excitement they bring to a game — might seem counterproductive, but there are additional factors to consider as global temperatures rise, particularly the exposure of players and fans to heat, Mankin said.

"A key question for the organization at large is what's an acceptable level of heat exposure for everybody and what's the acceptable cost for maximizing home runs," Mankin said. "Home runs are one pathway by which temperature is affecting game play, but there are other pathways that are more concerning because they have human risk attached to them."

The enormous wealth of data available for major league baseball games provided a unique opportunity to identify the repercussions of climate change on a cultural institution, Mankin said. Climate scientists focus on the increased likelihood and severity of natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, and heat waves because of the far-reaching devastation these events wreak — and because there are records to study them.

"Major League Baseball is a multibillion-dollar industry that is very data-rich, and that privilege allowed us to identify the effect of climate. This critical cultural touchstone for what it means to be American also happens to have a very salient relationship with physics in that temperature actually affects game play," Mankin said.

"It is really difficult to document how climate change is affecting cultural institutions and forms of recreation generally," he said. "For most cultural institutions, we simply don't have the data. In fact, we struggle to track climate impacts around the world because of data poverty. A project like this makes me worry that warming is affecting so many other things we just can't document."

The study began with Callahan, an avid baseball fan, wondering about the effect of climate change on baseball and sports in general. "It's important for us to recognize the potentially pervasive way that climate change has altered, or will alter, all the things we care about that are not necessarily encapsulated in heat waves or megadroughts or category 6 hurricanes," Callahan said. "The effects of global warming will extend throughout our lives in potentially subtle ways."

Co-author Jeremy DeSilva, professor and chair of anthropology at Dartmouth, said that evaluating the effect of climate change on cultural institutions can resonate with people's daily lives more so than large-scale disasters that can appear random and beyond anyone's control. That can lead to change. Baseball has been a touchpoint for social change in the past, from desegregation to growing corporatization and the outsized influence of money.

"Baseball is one of these ways that American society holds a mirror up to itself and global climate change is just another example — baseball is not immune to it," DeSilva said.

"This kind of study can be an entry point to understanding a phenomenon that is affecting the planet and every individual on it," he said. "Maybe people who otherwise wouldn't have will think about, and have a bigger conversation about, the more impactful and dangerous aspects of climate change once they know how it's affecting this quintessential game in the history of our country."

Cultural institutions reflect societal values and baseball encapsulates the American response to climate change, said co-author Nathaniel Dominy, the Charles Hansen Professor of Anthropology at Dartmouth.

"Think about the expression of American cultural values in baseball and how many of them exist in opposition to the other: winning and losing, tradition and change, teamwork and individualism, logic and luck," he said. "These same tensions are frustrating our collective response to carbon emissions, so it is extremely fitting to explore the effects of climate change on baseball. It is a potent metaphor for the American experience."

The study "Global warming, home runs, and the future of America's pastime," was published April 7, 2023, by the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. This work was supported by a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship (1840344), and the Neukom Institute for Computational Science and the Nelson A. Rockefeller Center for Public Policy and the Social Sciences at Dartmouth College.

###

---

JOURNAL

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

DOI

10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0235.1 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Global warming, home runs, and the future of America’s pastime

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

7-Apr-2023

CHUPACABRA🙄

Texas wildlife officials trying to identify 'mystery animal' caught on camera

April 7 (UPI) -- Texas Parks and Wildlife officials are investigating a mystery after a wildlife camera in the Rio Grande Valley captured an image of an unknown "mystery animal."

Officials wrote in a post on the Bentsen-Rio Grande Valley State Park Facebook page that a game camera in the Rio Grande Valley captured a nighttime image of an animal officials have not yet been able to identify.

"Is it a new species? An escapee from a nearby zoo? Or just a park ranger in disguise?" the post said. "Regardless, it's thrilling to see such an incredible animal in its natural habitat."

Officials wrote they would keep the public updated on the progress of the investigation.

Commenters on the post suggested the animal could be a badger, a wolverine, a bush dog or potentially an optical illusion caused by two wild hogs passing one another in opposite directions.

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for CRYPTOZOOLOGY

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for CHUPACABRA

AIR POLLUTION PANDEMIC

Air pollution may increase risk of dementia

By Cara Murez, HealthDay News

The investigators found a 17% increase in risk for developing dementia for every 2 μg/m3 increase in average annual exposure to PM2.5. 

Photo by David Mark/Pixabay

Exposure to air pollution may increase the risk of developing dementia, according to a review of prior research.

The new Harvard study is the latest look at a host of health issues -- from dementia to heart disease and stroke -- linked to pollutants such as fine particulate matter (PM2.5), as well as nitrogen oxide and nitrogen dioxide.

The findings support the need to strengthen air quality policies in the United States, according to the authors.

"There really hadn't been, to my mind, a good synthesis of all of the data or all of literature that was out there and, in particular, literature that included some of the more recent studies that involved a slightly different approach to doing this study," said study co-author Marc Weisskopf. He is a professor of environmental epidemiology and physiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, in Boston.

The researchers scanned more than 2,000 studies in their review, finding 51 that looked at an association between ambient air pollution and clinical dementia. Those studies were published within the past 10 years.

Sixteen studies met their criteria after they assessed for bias using something called the Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Exposure (ROBINS-E). Weisskopf explained that with issues of environmental exposures, the biases can be subtle and don't lend themselves to easy metrics. ROBINS-E allows for a deeper assessment of the possibility of bias.

The meta-analysis found consistent evidence of an association between PM2.5 and dementia.

That was true even when the exposure was less than the current limit set by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) - 12 micrograms per cubic meter of air (μg/m3) - a level the EPA has announced it may lower.

The investigators found a 17% increase in risk for developing dementia for every 2 μg/m3 increase in average annual exposure to PM2.5.

Associations also existed between nitrogen dioxide and nitrogen oxide and dementia. For nitrogen oxide, there was a 5% increase in risk for every 10 μg/m3 in annual exposure. For nitrogen dioxide, it was a 2% increase in risk for every 10 μg/m3 increase in annual exposure.

Many theories exist for why dirty air might increase dementia risk. It may simply be because pollution affects cardiovascular health and that in turn affects brain health.

Another theory involves the impact of inflammation. The pollution may directly act on nerve cells or other cells of the brain, Weisskopf said, interfering with general brain function.

Although smoking is considered a bigger risk factor for dementia than air pollution, this could still have massive implications at a population level because everyone has to breathe, Weisskopf noted.

"It's unclear what the mechanisms are that lead to this connection, but it's hypothesized that the very small particles of pollutants enter our bodies and penetrate our circulatory system, which helps fuel the brain," said Rebecca Edelmayer, Alzheimer's Association senior director of scientific engagement. Edelmayer was not involved in the study.

She noted that the results should be interpreted with caution because of limitations when conducting a "meta-analysis" of observational studies.

"These data illustrate that there are many factors across the life course that can contribute to our risk of dementia, and this includes the environment. Some of these factors we can control, such as our diet and frequency of physical activity, but some are more difficult to control on an individual level, such as where we live and the quality of the air that surrounds us," Edelmayer said.

She called for action by federal and local governments, as well as businesses, to reduce air pollutants.

Weisskopf said that agencies like the EPA could use these results because they support the public health importance of strengthening limits on pollution.

One big uncertainty is when exposure to pollution matters most in terms of its association with dementia, Weisskopf noted.

"Most of these studies were looking in the year or a few years before the dementia onset, but it could be earlier in life, it could be across all of life. And so until we understand that better, these numbers are going to fluctuate a bit," he explained.

Americans could potentially reduce some of the pollution they take in by the choices they make, said Dr. Afif El-Hasan, a pediatrician with Kaiser Permanente in Southern California and a volunteer medical spokesperson with the American Lung Association. El-Hasan was not involved in this study.

"Obviously, we have to go out. As a pediatrician, I want people to exercise," he said.

El-Hasan suggested being aware of pollution levels, noting that many cities and states have websites offering information about that day's air quality or even variations at different times of day.

"If possible, and we know it's not always possible, take a look and schedule outdoor activities at times when there's less pollution, especially so if you have lung disease or other issues," he stressed.

Use a filter that cleans air in the house, he said. Don't smoke.

If the world is an unhealthy place, that may not only worsen medical issues, but will also have an economic impact, El-Hasan noted.

"I just hope that the study reminds everyone that we're very much affected by the world around us. It's not independent. It is long-term effects, and it can be devastating effects to our whole body," he added.

The study findings were published Wednesday in BMJ.

More information

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has more on PM2.5.

Copyright © 2023 HealthDay. All rights reserved.

Work-from-home order issued as Thai city tops world pollution table
Agence France-Presse
April 07, 2023

Smoke from forest fires and farmers burning crop stubble has blanketed Thailand's Chiang Mai in recent weeks © STR / AFP/File

Thailand's Chiang Mai was ranked the world's most polluted city on Friday, with authorities urging people to work from home to avoid the hazardous air.

Smoke from forest fires and farmers burning crop stubble has blanketed the popular tourist destination in recent weeks.

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha held video talks with the leaders of neighboring Myanmar and Laos to discuss the problem, which affects large areas of southeast Asia every year.

Thailand has been choking on heavy air pollution since the start of the year, caused in part by seasonal agricultural burning.

Nearly two million people have needed hospital treatment for respiratory conditions caused by air pollution this year, according to the public health ministry.

On Friday morning, the air monitoring website IQAir ranked Chiang Mai as the most polluted major city in the world, above regular hotspots such as Delhi and Lahore.

Levels of the most dangerous PM2.5 particles -- so tiny they can enter the bloodstream -- were more than 66 times the World Health Organization's annual guideline, according to IQAir.

Chiang Mai provincial governor Nirat Pongsittitavorn issued a statement urging people to stay indoors and work from home to "protect themselves and reduce the health impact" from PM2.5 particles.

Forest fires have contributed to the problem.

The latest, in Chiang Rai province, northeast of Chiang Mai, began on Thursday and has affected 96 hectares of forest.

Home to nearly 130,000 people, Chiang Mai is a gateway to Thailand's hilly north, visited pre-pandemic by millions of tourists for its historic centre and laid-back atmosphere.

But Wittaya Pongsiri, vice-president of the Chiang Mai Tourism Business Association, said the pollution was putting visitors off.

"The number of tourists has dropped by 20 percent," he said.

After his talks with his Laotian counterpart Sonexay Siphandone and Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing, Prayut's office said he would push for discussion of cross-border pollution at the next summit of regional bloc ASEAN.

The three leaders discussed the need to find ways to curb emissions from agriculture and industry, but did not agree on any concrete steps for action.

Officials previously warned Bangkok residents to stay indoors and work from home in February as the Thai capital was covered with harmful haze.

Virus on hands, surfaces contributes to household spread of COVID-19

By Cara Murez, HealthDay News

Researchers found that if the COVID-19 virus was detected on primary cases' hands, then contacts in their household were 1.7 times more likely to get infected than those in households where primary cases did not have the virus on their hands. 

File photo by Kevin Dietsch/UPI | License Photo

For what they say is the first time, British researchers report that they have found the spread of COVID-19 in households is linked to the presence of the virus on hands and surfaces, not just in the air.

The investigators collected data from households at the height of the pandemic, finding that people were much more likely to get COVID-19 from someone in their house if virus was present on hands or frequently touched places, like refrigerator door handles or sink faucets.

"There's no doubt that if you have COVID-19, you're emitting the virus into the air as micro-aerosols as well as large droplets that land on your hands and the surfaces around you. What hasn't been shown, until now, is that the presence of the virus on people's hands or household surfaces predicts transmission to contacts," said study author Ajit Lalvani. He is director of the National Institute of Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Respiratory Infections.

The NIHR HPRU is a research partnership between Imperial College London and the UK Health Security Agency. Researchers from University of Oxford also worked on the study.

"Our real-life study in London households provides the first empirical evidence to show that the presence of SARS-CoV-2 on people's hands and surfaces contributes significantly to spread of COVID-19. Since we didn't systematically sample household air, we cannot rule out airborne transmission occurring in parallel," Lalvani said.

The researchers studied COVID-19 transmission in 279 London households, recruiting 414 household contacts who lived with 279 people who were newly diagnosed with COVID-19 between Aug. 1, 2020, and March 31, 2021.

Very few of the household contacts had been vaccinated yet or previously infected, which made them susceptible to infection. They ranged in age between 6 and 79 years.

The research team checked all the contacts regularly using PCR tests in the nose and throat, while also swabbing the hands of both the primary cases and their contacts. The researchers also took samples from frequently touched communal areas, to measure the amount of virus genetic material and the number of particles.

"In houses in which we found the virus on surfaces and the hands of participants, infection among contacts, and thus transmission, was significantly higher," said study first author Nieves Derqui, from Imperial College London's NIHR HPRU in Respiratory Infections.

Although the study authors accounted for other potentially influential factors, they still found that if the virus was detected on primary cases' hands, then contacts in their household were 1.7 times more likely to get infected than those in households where primary cases did not have the virus on their hands.

The presence of virus on primary cases' hands was also associated with a three times greater risk of contacts in the household having a positive hand-swab. Contacts with the virus on their hands were twice as likely to become infected with COVID-19.

If virus was present on frequently touched surfaces in the household, contacts were 3.8 times more likely to have detectable virus on their hands and 1.7 times more likely to be infected, the researchers reported.

Six of the contacts who were initially uninfected but became infected with COVID-19 during the study had positive hand or household surface swabs prior to becoming infected.

The authors said this supports that transmission came from household surfaces and contacts' hands to their nose and throat.

When possible, the researchers did whole genome sequencing of the 25 primary cases and their contacts. This confirmed that each primary case-contact pair was infected with the same virus strain, which supported that transmission happened in the household.

"My team's Herculean logistical undertaking during the challenging circumstances at the height of the pandemic in real-life households strongly supports the theory that SARS-CoV-2 transmission from contaminated surfaces and hands does occur in households," Lalvani said in a college news release.

"With successive new variants likely to spread widely despite booster vaccinations, the simple, easily applicable public health interventions and messaging underpinned by our evidence are a valuable, risk-free and timely addition to the toolkit for living safely with COVID-19," he added.

The study was observational and can't prove causation, and it also can't rule out airborne transmission. Other limitations were that non-white ethnicities and older age groups were under-represented in the study, and that the timing was when early variants were spreading, which means that the results may not apply to more recent variants.

The findings were published Thursday in The Lancet Microbe.

More information

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has more on COVID-19.

Copyright © 2023 HealthDay. All rights reserved.

Spread of COVID-19 in households is linked to virus on hands and surfaces, say researchers

Peer-Reviewed Publication

IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON

 

IMAGE: THIS INFOGRAPHIC SHOWS SARS-COV-2 HOUSEHOLD TRANSMISSION PATHWAYS WITH ADJUSTED RELATIVE RISKS. view more 

CREDIT: IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON

Peer-reviewed / Observational study / People

Spread of COVID-19 in households is linked to virus on hands and surfaces, say researchers

A new Imperial College London-led study provides the first empirical evidence for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 via people’s hands and frequently touched household surfaces.

The research sheds new light on the spread of COVID-19 in households, where most transmission of SARS-CoV-2 occurs, and it is the first to link the presence of SARS-CoV-2 on people’s hands and frequently touched household surfaces to the risk of infection among contacts. The findings support the use of interventions at home when someone has an infection, in particular frequent handwashing, regular surface disinfection, and physical distancing as well as the use of masks to curb the spread of COVID-19.

The study of 279 households in London, published in The Lancet Microbe, was conducted at the height of the pandemic during the alpha and pre-alpha waves. The research was carried out at the National Institute of Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Respiratory Infections, a research partnership between Imperial College London and the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).

Professor Ajit Lalvani, lead author of the study, and Director of NIHR HPRU in Respiratory Infections, said: “There’s no doubt that if you have COVID-19 you’re emitting the virus into the air as micro-aerosols as well as large droplets that land on your hands and the surfaces around you. What hasn’t been shown, until now, is that the presence of the virus on people’s hands or household surfaces predicts transmission to contacts.

“Our real-life study in London households provides the first empirical evidence to show that the presence of SARS-CoV-2 on people’s hands and surfaces contributes significantly to spread of COVID-19. Since we didn’t systematically sample household air, we cannot rule out airborne transmission occurring in parallel.”

The first study of its kind – by researchers from Imperial College London, the UKHSA, and the University of Oxford – prospectively recruited 414 susceptible household contacts living in the same households as 279 newly diagnosed primary cases between 1st August 2020 and 31st March 2021 [1]. Since the study was conducted early in the pandemic, very few had been vaccinated or previously infected and the majority were therefore non-immune and susceptible to infection. This enabled the researchers to rigorously assess risk factors and vectors for transmission in unique circumstances akin to a natural experiment. The age range was 6-79 years, and 52% were female.

All contacts were regularly tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection by PCR on nose and throat (upper respiratory tract (URT)) swabs.

The researchers also took swabs from primary cases' and contacts’ hands as well as the most frequently touched surfaces in communal areas (for example, fridge-door and kettle handles, kitchen taps etc.) to measure SARS-CoV-2 genetic material (RNA) and the number of virus particles. The researchers looked for correlations between microbiological detection of the virus on hands and surfaces and transmission to household contacts.

Nieves Derqui, first author for the study, from Imperial College London’s NIHR HPRU in Respiratory Infections, said: “In houses in which we found the virus on surfaces and the hands of participants, infection among contacts, and thus transmission, was significantly higher.”

After accounting for other potentially influential factors such as sex, vaccination status, underlying illnesses, and contacts’ relationship to the primary case, the researchers found that if the virus was detected on primary cases’ hands, then contacts in their household were 1.7 times more likely to get infected than those in households where primary cases did not have the virus on their hands.

Similarly, the presence of virus on primary cases’ hands was associated with a three times greater risk of contacts in the household having a positive hand-swab, and in turn, contacts with the virus on their hands were twice as likely to become infected with COVID-19.

If virus was present on frequently touched surfaces in the household, contacts were 3.8 times more likely to have detectable virus on their hands and 1.7 times more likely to be infected, i.e. to have a PCR-positive URT-swab.

Among the contacts who were initially uninfected but became infected with COVID-19 during the study, six had positive hand or household surface swabs prior to becoming infected. This supports the directionality of transmission being from household surfaces and contacts’ hands to their nose and throat.

Whole genome sequencing of the 25 primary cases and their respective contacts where this was possible confirmed that each primary case-contact pair was infected with the same SARS-CoV-2 strain, confirming household transmission between primary cases and their respective contacts.

Professor Lalvani said: “My team’s Herculean logistical undertaking during the challenging circumstances at the height of the pandemic in real-life households strongly supports the theory that SARS-CoV-2 transmission from contaminated surfaces and hands does occur in households. With successive new variants likely to spread widely despite booster vaccinations, the simple, easily applicable public health interventions and messaging underpinned by our evidence are a valuable, risk-free and timely addition to the toolkit for living safely with COVID-19.

"Our new understanding of the pathways of household transmission now enables us to prioritise simple measures to interrupt spread of the virus. Our data strongly suggest that as well as frequent handwashing, decontamination of frequently touched surfaces could prevent transmission.”

Despite the important findings, the researchers note that this is an observational study and as such cannot prove causation. Moreover, since household air was not systematically sampled, airborne transmission cannot be ruled out.

They also acknowledge that non-white ethnicities and older age groups were under-represented in the study and their results were limited to the pre-alpha and alpha variants, so the results may not apply to other groups or more recent and infectious variants.

--

‘Risk factors and vectors for SARS-CoV-2 household transmission: a prospective, longitudinal cohort study’ by Nieves Derqui et al. is published in the journal The Lancet Microbe.

An infographic showing household transmission with relative risks (aRR) is attached to this press release.

Adjusted relative risks (aRR) were calculated accounting for significant demographic and household characteristics. Relative risks shown for risk of infection among contacts (when arrows point to “Contacts’ Upper Respiratory Tract”) or for risk of finding a PCR hand swab (when arrows point to “Contacts’ Hands”). Frequently touched surfaces include fridge doors, kitchen taps and kettles, and similar.

--

For more information, please contact:

Conrad Duncan (he/him)

Media Officer (Medicine)

Imperial College London

Tel: +44 (0)20 7594 6860

Email: c.duncan@imperial.ac.uk

Out-of-hours duty media officer: +44 (0)7803 886 248

--

This press release uses a labelling system developed by the Academy of Medical Sciences to improve the communication of evidence. For more information, please see: http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AMS-press-release-labelling-system-GUIDANCE.pdf

NOTES TO EDITOR:

The study was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research – Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections.

[1] Participants were enrolled in two longitudinal community-based observational studies in Greater London: INSTINCT (Integrated Network for Surveillance, Trials and Investigations into COVID-19 Transmission), and ATACCC (Assessment of Transmission And Contagiousness of COVID-19 in Contacts). SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive, symptomatic primary cases and their contacts were identified through the national contact tracing system (NHS Test & Trace) and invited to participate if the primary case symptom onset was 5 days or less.

--

About Imperial College London

Imperial College London is a global top ten university with a world-class reputation. The College's 22,000 students and 8,000 staff are working to solve the biggest challenges in science, medicine, engineering and business.

The Research Excellence Framework (REF) 2021 found that it has a greater proportion of world-leading research than any other UK university, it was named University of the Year 2022 according to The Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide, University of the Year for Student Experience 2022 by the Good University Guide, and awarded a Queen’s Anniversary Prize for its COVID-19 response. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/

 

About the National Institute for Health and Care Research

The mission of the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) is to improve the health and wealth of the nation through research. We do this by:

• Funding high quality, timely research that benefits the NHS, public health and social care;
• Investing in world-class expertise, facilities and a skilled delivery workforce to translate discoveries into improved treatments and services;
• Partnering with patients, service users, carers and communities, improving the relevance, quality and impact of our research;
• Attracting, training and supporting the best researchers to tackle complex health and social care challenges;
• Collaborating with other public funders, charities and industry to help shape a cohesive and globally competitive research system;
• Funding applied global health research and training to meet the needs of the poorest people in low- and middle-income countries.

NIHR is funded by the Department of Health and Social Care. Its work in low- and middle-income countries is principally funded through UK Aid from the UK government.

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JOURNAL

The Lancet Microbe

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

‘Risk factors and vectors for SARS-CoV-2 household transmission: a prospective, longitudinal cohort study’

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

6-Apr-2023

Amsterdam sex work advocates rip city's plan to move famed red light district

Amsterdam sex work advocates are condemning a plan to move the city’s famed red-light district from the historic neighborhood of De Wallen to an erotic center on the outskirts of the city. 

April 6 (UPI) -- Amsterdam sex work advocates are condemning a plan to move the city's famed red-light district from the historic neighborhood of De Wallen to an erotic center on the outskirts of the city.

Sabrina Sanchez, the director of the European Sex Worker Rights Alliance, said in remarks to UPI that the De Wallen neighborhood "has always been the sex workers' neighborhood."

The so-called red-light district is in a centuries-old part of the city characterized by a network of alleys containing hundreds of one-room shops rented by sex workers who advertise their services from behind a window or glass door and gets its name from the red lights that sex workers use to illuminate their windows.

"Many of the window workers still live in the neighborhood, despite the high rent prices. The planned location of the erotic center is far from the places where most sex workers live, and depending on the hours, with very limited public transportation," she said.

Sanchez also suggested that moving the red light district to an erotic center would also lead to increased danger for sex workers at the end of their shifts.

"In the red-light district, it is also easy for us to mix in the crowd when we enter or finish the shift," Sanchez said.

"They say they want to create areas of entertainment for us and the clients, but tell me honestly, how many times you've seen the employees of a beach resort spending time playing golf or enjoying their leisure time?"

Prostitution is legal in the Netherlands but officials are concerned that tourism to De Wallen is driving an increase in crime in the city.

City officials in February announced in a news release that it would ban smoking marijuana in the street and enforce earlier closing times for sex work establishments, as well as clubs and bars, on weekends because of rowdy tourists and "unsafe conditions at night."

Other restrictions include a reduction in the sale of alcohol and restrictions on displaying alcohol in shops at certain times. A ban on drinking alcohol in the street had already been put into place.

"I personally come from Barcelona, there aren't any windows there and the city also has problems with uncivil tourists, and there are also some insecurity problems related to that," Sanchez said.

"We are the first ones that want to work in nice, good conditions. But moving the windows to another part of the city isn't going to solve them. This is a much deeper conversation."

Sanchez also pushed back on the idea that the sex trade triggers criminal activities.

"I think that it is a wrong and dangerous assumption," she said.

"Authorities have to sit together, if possible in the same room, with us sex workers and neighbors to see how we can address the problems for De Wallen."

She added that sex workers are not "objects that can be moved without asking them what they want and need."

Last week, sex workers marched through the city to protest against city officials pushing for the new measures. Protesters wore masks for anonymity and waved red umbrellas to support the red-light district.

"The different national groups that exist in the cities are still organizing, but we definitely need to mobilize more," Sanchez told UPI.

"It's demonstrated when sex workers speak, power starts to tremble. They will keep us informed accordingly."

21st CENTURY ALCHEMY
Gold-based antibiotics could be key to fighting superbugs, research suggests\
New research that will be presented next week at a conference in Copenhagen suggests that gold-based antibiotics could be the key to fighting so-called drug-resistant superbugs. 

Photo by Petr Kratochvil/Public Domain Pictures

April 7 (UPI) -- For years, scientists have searched for a silver bullet to treat multidrug-resistant superbugs. Now, they may have found the solution in another precious metal: gold.

Several gold-based compounds have shown efficacy against hard-to-treat bacteria, according to new research to be presented at the European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases in Copenhagen, Denmark next week.

In a paper prepared for the conference, researchers said they found that gold-based antibiotics showed "great potential," especially against diseases that have proven resistant to other drugs.

Sara Soto Gonzalez, of the Barcelona Institute for Global Health in Barcelona, Spain, and fellow researchers studied the activity of 19 gold compounds against a range of multidrug-resistant bacteria isolated from patients.

Drug-resistant 'superbugs' may spread between people, pets

Those bacteria studied included Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, or MRSA; Staphylococcus epidermidis; pseudomonas aeruginosa; stenotrophomonasmaltophilia; acinetobacter baumannii; and pneumonia.

Scientists found that 16 of the 19 gold compounds were highly effective against MRSA and S. epidermis, and 16 were effective against the other bacteria, all of which are gram-negative. Researchers said that "gram negative" bacteria have a greater resistance to antibiotics, and they need new treatments.

Overall, all 19 compounds tested were effective against at least one of the hard-to-treat bacterium and some were effective against several.

"It is particularly exciting to see that some of the gold complexes were effective against MRSA and multidrug-resistant A. baumannii, as there are two biggest causes of hospital-acquired infections," Soto Gonzalez said.

"The type of gold complexes we studied, known as gold (III) complexes, are relatively straightforward and inexpensive to make. They can also be easily modified and so provide a vast amount of scope for drug development."

Drug-resistant infections kill roughly 700,000 people annually around the world. The World Health Organization classifies antibiotic resistance as one of the greatest public health threats facing humanity.

Study: Inappropriate antibiotic use in kids increases healthcare costs

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevent said that such antimicrobial resistance happens when germs like bacteria and fungi develop the ability to defeat the drugs designed to kill them, making them almost impossible to treat.

Gold is known to have antibacterial properties, making gold metalloantibiotics -- compounds with a gold ion at their core -- one of the most promising new approaches.

"Gold complexes use a variety of techniques to kill bacteria," Soto Gonzalez said. "They stop enzymes from working, disrupt the function of the bacterial membrane and damage DNA.

"With research on other types of gold metalloantibiotics also providing promising results, the future is bright for gold-based antibiotics."

Future is bright for gold-based antibiotics

Reports and Proceedings

EUROPEAN SOCIETY OF CLINICAL MICROBIOLOGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES

New research being presented at this year’s European Congress of Clinical Microbiology & Infectious Diseases (ECCMID) in Copenhagen, Denmark, (15-18 April) has identified several gold-based compounds with the potential to treat multidrug-resistant “superbugs”.

With all 19 compounds tested effective against at least one hard-to-treat bacterium and some effective against several, the Spanish researchers say that the gold-based drugs hold great potential as new antibiotics.

Drug-resistant infections kill an estimated 700,000 people a year globally and, with the figure projected to rise to 10 million by 2050 if no action is taken, the World Health Organisation (WHO) classes antibiotic resistance as one of the greatest public health threats facing humanity.

However, the development of new antibiotics has stalled and the few new antibiotics that are developed are mainly derivatives of existing treatments.

Gold is known to have antibacterial properties, making gold metalloantibiotics – compounds with a gold ion at their core – an exciting potential new approach.

To find out more, Dr Sara M. Soto González, of the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain, and colleagues studied the activity of 19 gold complexes against a range of multidrug-resistant bacteria isolated from patients.

The complexes all belong to the same family but have slightly different structures.

The six bacteria studied were: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA, which causes skin and other infections), Staphylococcus epidermidis (which can cause catheter-associated infections), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (which causes infections including pneumonia), Stenotrophomonas maltophilia (pneumonia and other infections), Acinetobacter baumannii (blood and urinary tract infections and pneumonia) and Escherichia coli (blood and urinary tract infections and pneumonia).

All of the strains studied were multidrug-resistant. Four (S. aureus, P. aeruginosa, A. baumannii and E. coli) are on the World Health Organisation’s list of antibiotic resistant ‘priority pathogens’1 – meaning they are among the bacteria judged to pose the greatest risk to human health.  Multidrug-resistant S. maltophilia is increasingly being found in the lungs of people with cystic fibrosis.

In tests, 16/19 (84%) of the gold complexes were highly effective against MRSA and S. epidermis.

Another 16 of the complexes were effective against the other bacteria, all of which are gram negative. Gram negative bacteria have greater inbuilt resistance to antibiotics and the need for new treatments is particularly pressing.

Gold complexes use a variety of techniques to kill bacteria.  They stop enzymes from working, disrupt the function of the bacterial membrane and damage DNA. Crucially, this multimodal mechanism should prevent antimicrobial resistance from developing.

Dr Soto González concludes: “All of the gold compounds were effective against at least one of the bacterial species studied and some displayed potent activity against several multidrug-resistant bacteria.

“It is particularly exciting to see that some of the gold complexes were effective against MRSA and multidrug-resistant A. baumannii, as there are two biggest causes of hospital-acquired infections.

“The type of gold complexes we studied, known as gold (III) complexes, are relatively straightforward and inexpensive to make.  They can also be easily modified and so provide a vast amount of scope for drug development.

“With research on other types of gold metalloantibiotics also providing promising results, the future is bright for gold-based antibiotics.”

Dr Sara M. Soto González, Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain. M) +34 6555 11177 E) sara.soto@isglobal.org

Please note that Dr Soto González is travelling until April 14.  For urgent enquiries during that time, please contact co-author Raquel Soengas

Professor Raquel Soengas, University of Oviedo, Oviedo Spain. M):+34 6040 07552 E) rsoengas@uniovi.es

Alternative contact: Tony Kirby in the ECCMID Media Centre. T) +44 7834 385827 E) tony@tonykirby.com

Notes to editors:

References:

1. https://www.who.int/news/item/27-02-2017-who-publishes-list-of-bacteria-for-which-new-antibiotics-are-urgently-needed

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

This press release is based on abstract 1079 at the European Congress of Clinical Microbiology & Infectious Diseases (ECCMID) annual meeting. The material has been peer reviewed by the congress selection committee. There is no full paper available at this stage.

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

7-Apr-2023

COI STATEMENT

The authors declare no conflicts of interest

Ukrainian dolphins find new home in Romanian aquarium

April 06, 2023 
Written by Anca Cernat for Reuters 

BUCHAREST, April 6 (Reuters) - At the dolphinarium in the Black Sea port city of Constanta, Romanian and Ukrainian trainers are letting dolphins guide them despite language barriers.

Last year, the dolphinarium took in four dolphins and three sea lions alongside their trainers and doctors fleeing the shelling in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.

"Now we have more colleagues ... Ukrainian colleagues and Ukrainian dolphin colleagues," Romanian trainer Mona Mandrescu said at the edge of the pool after a mid-morning performance for hundreds of delighted school children.

"We get along together very well, we speak the same 'language'. It's the best thing that could happen to our dolphins."

Romania is one out of some fourteen European Union states that have dolphinariums and captive sea animals.

The Constanta dolphinarium, part of a wider natural science museum and research complex, has been home to female dolphins Ni Ni and Chen Chen since 2010.

In Kharkiv, the local dolphinarium sought to move their dolphins and sea lions as soon as the shelling started last February.

The dolphins - Kiki, Maya, Marusia and Veterok - and sea lions - Alex, Mary and Zosya - were immediately moved to Odessa, where they waited for two months for Romanian and Ukrainian officials to complete the carousel of paperwork needed to bring them into the EU.

The animals arrived in Constanta in early May and were quarantined for a month before being introduced to the two resident dolphins.

"It was a new experience for us and our animals because we are different, they have two very old and very beautiful girls, we have very young animals, at first it was a disconnect," Ukrainian team leader Elena Komogorova said.

"But right now ... we're very good friends - same with our team."

The animals started performing together in late June, swimming with trainers, jumping through hoops and balancing balls. The sea lions mingle with the audience.

"We want them to stay with us for as long as possible," the dolphinarium's manager Iulian Calin said. "They are hard working people and dolphins and we want them to be with us because we make a beautiful family."

(Reporting by Anca Cernat; Writing by Luiza Ilie; Editing by Sonali Paul)

China plans $500 mln subsea internet cable to rival US-backed project

Workers install the 2Africa undersea cable on the beach in Amanzimtoti, South Africa, February 7, 2023. 

REUTERS/Rogan Ward/File Photo/File Photo

Chinese state-owned telecom firms are developing a $500 million undersea fiber-optic internet cable network that would link Asia, the Middle East and Europe to rival a similar US-backed project, four people involved in the deal told Reuters. The plan is a sign that an intensifying tech war between Beijing and Washington risks tearing the fabric of the internet.

China's three main carriers – China Telecommunications Corporation (China Telecom), China Mobile Limited and China United Network Communications Group Co Ltd(China Unicom) – are mapping out one of the world's most advanced and far-reaching subsea cable networks, according to the four people, who have direct knowledge of the plan.

Known as EMA (Europe-Middle East-Asia), the proposed cable would link Hong Kong to China's island province of Hainan, before snaking its way to Singapore, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and France, the four people said. They asked not to be named because they were not allowed to discuss potential trade secrets.

The cable, which would cost approximately $500 million to complete, would be manufactured and laid by China's HMN Technologies Co Ltd, a fast-growing cable firm whose predecessor company was majority-owned by Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies Co Ltd, the people said.

They said HMN Tech, which is majority-owned by Shanghai-listed Hengtong Optic-Electric Co Ltd, would receive subsidies from the Chinese state to build the cable.

China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom, HMN Tech, Hengtong and China's Foreign Ministry did not respond to requests for comment.

News of the planned cable comes in the wake of a Reuters report last month that revealed how the US government, concerned about Beijing eavesdropping on internet data, has successfully thwarted a number of Chinese undersea cable projects abroad over the past four years. Washington has also blocked licenses for planned private subsea cables that would have connected the United States with the Chinese territory of Hong Kong, including projects led by Google LLC, Meta Platforms, Inc and Amazon.com Inc.

Undersea cables carry more than 95% of all international internet traffic. These high-speed conduits for decades have been owned by groups of telecom and tech companies that pool their resources to build these vast networks so that data can move seamlessly around the world.

But these cables, which are vulnerable to spying and sabotage, have become weapons of influence in an escalating competition between the United States and China. The superpowers are battling to dominate the advanced technologies that could determine economic and military supremacy in the decades ahead.

The China-led EMA project is intended to directly rival another cable currently being constructed by US firm SubCom LLC, called SeaMeWe-6 (Southeast Asia-Middle East-Western Europe-6), which will also connect Singapore to France, via Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and half a dozen other countries along the route.

The consortium on the SeaMeWe-6 cable – which originally had included China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom and telecom carriers from several other nations – initially picked HMN Tech to build that cable. But a successful US government pressure campaign flipped the contract to SubCom last year, Reuters reported in March.

The US blitz included giving millions of dollars in training grants to foreign telecom firms in return for them choosing SubCom over HMN Tech. The US Commerce Department also slapped sanctions on HMN Tech in December 2021, alleging the company intended to acquire American technology to help modernize China's People's Liberation Army. That move undermined the project's viability by making it impossible for owners of an HMN-built cable to sell bandwidth to US tech firms, usually their biggest customers.

China Telecom and China Mobile pulled out of the project after SubCom won the contract last year and, along with China Unicom, began planning the EMA cable, the four people involved said. The three state-owned Chinese telecom firms are expected to own more than half of the new network, but they are also striking deals with foreign partners, the people said.

The Chinese carriers this year signed separate memoranda of understanding with four telecoms, the people said: France's Orange SA, Pakistan Telecommunication Company Ltd (PTCL), Telecom Egypt and Zain Saudi Arabia, a unit of the Kuwaiti firm Mobile Telecommunications Company K.S.C.P.

The Chinese companies have also held talks with Singapore Telecommunications Limited, a state-controlled firm commonly known as Singtel, while other countries in Asia, Africa and the Middle East are being approached to join the consortium as well, the people involved said.

Orange declined to comment. Singtel, PTCL, Telecom Egypt and Zain did not respond to requests for comment.

American cable firm SubCom declined to comment on the rival cable. The Department of Justice, which oversees an interagency task force to safeguard US telecommunication networks from espionage and cyberattacks, declined to comment about the EMA cable.

A State Department spokesperson said the US supports a free, open and secure internet. Countries should prioritize security and privacy by "fully excluding untrustworthy vendors" from wireless networks, terrestrial and undersea cables, satellites, cloud services and data centers, the spokesperson said, without mentioning HMN Tech or China. The State Department did not respond to questions about whether it would mount a campaign to persuade foreign telecoms not to participate in the EMA cable project.

DIVIDING THE WORLD

Large undersea cable projects typically take at least three years to move from conception to delivery. The Chinese firms are hoping to finalize contracts by the end of the year and have the EMA cable online by the end of 2025, the people involved said.

The cable would give China strategic gains in its tussle with the United States, one of the people involved in the deal told Reuters.

Firstly, it would create a super-fast new connection between Hong Kong, China and much of the rest of the world, something Washington wants to avoid. Secondly, it gives China's state-backed telecom carriers greater reach and protection in the event they are excluded from US-backed cables in the future.

"It's like each side is arming itself with bandwidth," one telecom executive working on the deal said.

The construction of parallel US- and Chinese-backed cables between Asia and Europe is unprecedented, the four people involved in the project said. It is an early sign that global internet infrastructure, including cables, data centers and mobile phone networks, could become divided over the next decade, two security analysts told Reuters.

Countries could also be forced to choose between using Chinese-approved internet equipment or US-backed networks, entrenching divisions across the world and making tools that fuel the global economy, like online banking and global-positioning satellite systems, slower and less reliable, said Timothy Heath, a defense researcher at the RAND Corporation, a US-based think tank.

"It seems we are headed down a road where there will be a US-led internet and a Chinese-led internet ecosystem," Heath told Reuters. "The more the US and Chinese disengage from each other in the information technology domain, the more difficult it becomes to carry out global commerce and basic functions."

Antonia Hmaidi, an analyst at the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies, said the internet works so well because no matter where data needs to travel, it can zip along multiple different routes in the time it takes to read this word.

Hmaidi said if data has to follow routes that are approved in Washington and Beijing, then it will become easier for the United States and China to manipulate and spy on that data; internet users will suffer a degradation of service; and it will become more difficult to interact or do business with people around the world.

"Then suddenly the whole fabric of the internet doesn't work as it was intended," Hmaidi said.

The tit-for-tat battle over internet hardware mirrors the conflict taking place over social media apps and search engines created by US and Chinese firms.

The United States and its allies have banned the use of Chinese-owned short video app TikTok from government-owned devices due to national security concerns. Numerous countries have raised fears about the Chinese government gaining access to the data that TikTok collects on its users around the world.

China, meanwhile, already restricts what websites its citizens can see and blocks the apps and networks of many Western technology giants, including Google, YouTube, Facebook and Twitter.

THE FASCIST INTERNATIONAL
Portugal Party Chega Sets Far-Right World Summit With Brazil's Bolsonaro, Italy's Salvini

By Reuters
April 7, 2023

Far right political party Chega leader Andre Ventura gestures during a rally on the final day of campaigning ahead of Portugal's general election, in Lisbon, Portugal, January 28, 2022.

 REUTERS/Pedro Nunes

LISBON (Reuters) - Portuguese party Chega will hold a world summit in Lisbon with several far-right party leaders in May, including former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro and Italian deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini, the president of Chega said on Friday.

In a video statement, the president of Chega, Andre Ventura, said Bolsonaro and Salvini "already accepted the invitation to the great right-wing world summit" on the 13th and 14th of May.

"The presence of Jair Bolsonaro, Matteo Salvini and many other leaders of the European right, places Lisbon as one of the strongest new centers of the right in Europe and one of the world references in the fight against socialism", he said.

In January 2022, Portugal's ruling Socialist Party gained an unexpected outright majority and the Social Democrats finished second, but Chega increased its support and became the third largest party in parliament.

In March, Ventura told journalists he also planned to invite Marine Le Pen of France or Geert Wilders of the Netherlands, leaders of far-right parties in their countries.