Thursday, June 22, 2023

Silver-studded blue butterflies return to former Norfolk home



Kate Scotter - BBC News, Norfolk
Wed, June 21, 2023 

A protected species of butterfly has been reintroduced to its former home after an absence of more than 70 years.

Silver-studded blue butterflies have been lost from more than 80% of their former habitats in the past century as heathland was converted to forestry and housing, a natural history group said.

They are currently found at only four Norfolk locations.

The group has moved 35 of the scarce butterflies from Buxton Heath to a country park near Horsford.

The site at Broadland Country Park was the original source of butterflies introduced to Horsford Rifle Range, Buxton Heath and Kelling Heath, but the original population was destroyed in the 1950s when plantation forestry took over.


With the trees now removed, heather and black ants, which the butterflies need to complete their life cycle, have returned, and the species should once again thrive in its former home, the Norfolk & Norwich Naturalists' Society said.

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Monitoring at the park, which was established by Broadland District Council, will continue for at least five years.

Alan Dawson, who monitors the silver-studded blue at Buxton Heath for Butterfly Conservation, said: "The butterfly has done very well indeed here, and it was time to take some individuals back to their restored home."

Volunteer Dave Weaver added: "The return of the iconic silver-studded blue to its former home is a moment of great pride to us all."
Harvard human remains case highlights need for body donation regulations, experts say

Tim Stelloh
Wed, June 21, 2023 

The prosecution of a former Harvard Medical School employee over an alleged human remains theft ring prompted experts to call for federal rules for a practice that they said is largely unregulated and has grown in recent years with the rise of for-profit “body brokers."

The school’s anatomical donation program, which employed a manager accused of illegally selling body parts to a nationwide network of buyers, is like dozens of others across the country that are trying to “help advance science and education,” said Thomas Champney, a bioethics expert at the University of Miami.

But unlike with organ donation, which is closely regulated under the 1968 Uniform Anatomical Gift Act, few rules govern nonprofit programs or businesses that sell donated bodies to medical device makers, law enforcement agencies and others, said Champney, who also helps run a body donation program for Florida’s State Anatomical Board.

Cedric Lodge, former manager of the morgue at Harvard Medical School, leaves federal court in Boston, on June 14, 2023. (NBC Boston)

“What I really want from the federal government is basic enforcement on the handling” of bodies, he said. “Right now, if I want to do a body donation program, I don’t have to go to anybody to get a certification.”

There should also be rules requiring "revenue neutral" status and more transparency, he said. If people donate their bodies to universities, for example, no federal policies require the schools to disclose whether the bodies will be “disarticulated” — or cut up and used in different ways.

“Some may disclose it more readily than others,” he said in an email. “There are no rules, so folks do what they are ‘comfortable’ with.”

It is not clear whether there were failures within Harvard’s program that allowed the former manager, Cedric Lodge, to allegedly steal organs and remains from the school’s morgue and sell them.

Several other people, including Lodge's wife and an employee at an Arkansas mortuary, were also charged in the alleged scheme.

In a statement last week, Harvard Medical School said that it was “appalled” by the allegations and that it had appointed a panel of experts to review its policies and practices.

Asked Wednesday whether any of those policies might have contributed to Lodge’s alleged crimes, a school spokesperson said it would be premature to comment before the expert report is delivered later this year.

Lawyers for Lodge did not respond to requests for comment Wednesday night.

In an email, Angela McArthur, the director of the anatomy bequest program at the University of Minnesota Medical School, described being "horrified and saddened" by allegations that she said offered many lessons.

"While some of the allegations fit into the larger issue of the commodification of the human body and lack of regulatory oversight, it’s important to note that this situation involved criminal behavior including the alleged theft of body parts for macabre purposes unrelated to medical education and research," she said. "I think a review of any current and proposed regulations is in order."

She pointed to legislation proposed in the U.S. House and Senate that would require entities that use bodies for education and research to register with the Department of Health and Human Services, among other things.

Michael Burg, a lawyer representing a group of 10 people who won a $58 million verdict against the owner of an Arizona company in 2019 over what Burg's law firm described as an “egregious body brokering scheme,” wondered how Harvard’s oversight of Lodge could have appeared so lax.

“What kind of supervision did he have?” Burg said in an interview. “This is a prominent university. There should have been supervision.”

Burg added that organ donation rules should be extended to bodies.

“If you want to take cadavers and bodies and chop them up and sell them, you don’t need a license. Anybody can do it,” he said. “It’s ridiculous.”

"You can't sell hearts and livers and kidneys," he added.

Martine Dunnwald, the president of the American Association of Anatomy, an industry group, said in a statement last week that the group condemns the “commercialization of human body donors and any action that violates donor ethics and trust.”

“To ensure the ethical, legal, and responsible operation of body donation programs nationwide, the AAA calls upon government and law enforcement agencies, academic institutions, and regulatory bodies for both justice and collaborative reform to prevent the misuse and commodification of human body donors,” she said.

A spokesman did not respond to interview requests seeking more detail.

Champney, a member of AAA, said the group has developed a set of guidelines for universities and other nonprofit groups that handle body donations, but he said those function as best practices and not mandated policies.

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
A tale of two farmers as industry faces crossroads


Kevin Keane - BBC Scotland's environment correspondent
Thu, June 22, 2023 

Nikki Yoxall has a small livestock herd at Glass in Aberdeenshire

Nikki Yoxall isn't your conventional farmer.

She describes herself as an agro-ecological grazier. She doesn't own a tractor, has no barns or sheds, and she grows no crops.

Instead, her herd of beef cattle is kept continually on the move across a range of pastures at Glass in Aberdeenshire.

And she receives no direct government subsidies for food production.

Nikki wants to see the system changed so that the focus is on helping the environment.

But that puts her in opposition with the views of many other farmers. They have been urging the Scottish government to retain the principle of direct financial support, topped up with funding for environmental measures.


The livestock are grazing in much longer grass than you would expect

Nikki makes a profit because her farming method is low input, which means that the cost of keeping the livestock is significantly lower than on conventional farms.


The animals are outside all year round and are moved daily, either to another field or to a different section of the same field.

This allows time for the ground to recover and become a haven for wildlife before the animals return to that patch, often months later.

Ground nesting birds like skylarks and meadow pipits have been spotted nesting in the same fields because there's enough time for them to raise their broods.

Although her herd contains only 30 animals at present, Nikki insists the grazing system she practices is replicable at scale with some already doing it with up to 180 animals.

The average herd size in Scotland is around 200 animals and some would regard Nikki's approach as "hobby farming", although she would take exception to that description.

Scottish agriculture is at an important crossroads as a result of Brexit.

The EU Common Agricultural Policy is being replaced with a subsidy system which will be designed and administered in Scotland.


Abundant wildflowers in the ungrazed area contrast with the recently grazed patch

Some environmentalists are concerned that retaining too much of the status quo will not provide the type of transformational change that is needed.

Nikki wants to tip the balance in favour of environmental improvements, with three quarters of payments going towards measures which improve nature and tackle climate change.

The rest would be direct payments to farmers for food production.

She said: "I'm not sure that we're heading in a transformative direction and there are various challenges around the mechanics of policy which make that really difficult.

"What we need to do is put very strict conditions on that funding to make sure that nature and climate are prioritised."

But many farmers recoil at the idea of attaching more conditions to farming.

Gary Christie operates a more traditional farm which relies on subsidies

The last few years have been a rollercoaster for them, with the war in Ukraine pushing up fertiliser and energy prices.

And they warn that if there is too much burden placed on them, their businesses will collapse.

Gary Christie farms just five miles away from Nikki.

He doesn't think his business could have survived without subsidies.

Gary operates a more traditional farm with a much larger herd and heftier Simmental cows from the continent.

They are only pasture-fed from around May to October, by which time there is little grass left. They then have to be housed indoors.

It's a more expensive way to produce the beef, but it means he can put more meat into the market.

Simmental are a continental breed which produce much more meat

Along with the farming union NFU Scotland, Gary is urging ministers to be careful about attaching too many expensive environmental conditions to subsidies.

They say this would make some businesses unprofitable. Instead, they want 80% of the funding to go directly to farmers for supporting food production.

Gary said: "If a beef farm is profitable it'll deliver on food, it'll deliver on climate and it'll deliver in nature.

"If we're in the red, we can't go green."

Gary acknowledges that there is probably more that farmers can do to protect and enhance nature - but says ministers need to be clear on what they expect.

He says the support from government is "vital to keep us afloat" and producing affordable food to feed the nation.

One thing all farmers agree on is the urgent need for clarity over future farming policy, which has been in the making for many years.

Agriculture requires investing in stock which might not deliver a return for three years. Not knowing what support will be available at the point of sale is troubling to many.

Farming leaders hope ministers will use the annual Royal Highland Show at Ingliston to offer some clarity about the way forward.
Newsom takes heat from California environmentalists over prolonged use of gas-powered plants


CRAIG KOHLRUSS/ckohlruss@fresnobee.com


Maggie Angst
Wed, June 21, 2023 

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s decision to prolong the life of controversial power plants to help keep the lights on in California is once again being questioned by environmentalists.

A new report released Wednesday, commissioned by the California Environmental Justice Alliance and Sierra Club, said that during last year’s unprecedented heat wave, California’s natural gas-fired plants failed to generate the expected levels of power while significantly increasing pollution in nearby communities.

“This report really underscores that in planning for the reliable grid of the future, investing in more fossil fuels is a bad investment and a misguided plan not just for environmental justice communities, but also for California ratepayers as a whole and for our climate,” said Teresa Cheng, a senior campaign representative for Sierra Club.

From last August 31 to September 9, triple-digit temperatures baked much of the state, including Sacramento, in one of the most prolonged heat waves in recent California history. It placed unprecedented strain on power supplies, driving energy demand to a record height of 52,000 megawatts.


Although rolling blackouts were narrowly kept at bay as Newsom pleaded with Californians to reduce their energy use, the report says the state’s gas plants worsened the air quality in some communities.

Alex Stack, a spokesperson for Newsom, said Wednesday afternoon that he could not comment on the report because the governor’s office had not yet had time to analyze it. In a statement, Stack touted the governor’s leadership on climate initiatives and said the state’s recent investments in aging fossil fuel infrastructure created “an essential backup resource” for extreme weather events.
Gavin Newsom takes heat for prolonged life of gas plants

The fate of the state’s nearly 200 nearly grid-connected natural gas power plants has been a contentious issue for Newsom and environmentalists as California pushes toward a clean energy future. State law mandates that the electricity grid be 100% renewable by 2045.

Tensions rose in August 2020 when, weeks after Californians endured rolling blackouts for the first time since 2001, the State Water Resources Control Board voted to allow nine high-polluting generating units to operate for up to three more years.

Then last year, Newsom authorized a plan giving the state broad authority to approve new proposals and purchase electricity from a group of plants scheduled to be retired in the next few years. These included the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant and a group of high-polluting natural gas-fired plants on the Southern California coast.

Newsom and his administration argue the prolonged life of the plants is critical to maintaining the electricity grid reliability.

“Action is needed now to maintain reliable energy service as the state accelerates the transition to clean energy,” Newsom said of his energy plan last year.

Critics argue that the administration’s policies represent a “flawed plan” for energy reliability and take away state resources that should be dedicated to expanding its fleet of renewable energy.

“Regulators and agencies and the executive branch will extend these plants and sort of push back the timeline on how long fossil fuel infrastructure will be kept online and say that that will then allow us to procure enough clean energy to ultimately turn them off,” said Ari Eisenstadt, energy equity manager at California Environmental Justice Alliance. “But we’ve seen over and over again, is that that hasn’t actually happened.”

During the 2022 heat wave, Newsom signed executive orders allowing for the use of diesel backup generators and the idling of ships off of California ports. Both measures caused increased harm to disadvantaged communities, according to the report.

Emissions from California’s gas plants spiked by 60% during the 10-day heat wave compared to the pollution emitted in the 10 days prior, according to the report. The carbon dioxide emissions alone were equivalent to the pollution produced by 43,000 vehicles in a year, the report found.

California gas plants pose grid reliability challenges


Although the sun is typically the state’s largest energy source during hot summer days, California still relies heavily on natural gas during evening peak demand hours because of wind and solar power shortages.

As the report notes, some of the state’s fossil fuel plants — especially those that are aging and gas-fired — pose issues for the grid’s reliability. Amid the 10-day heat wave last year, plants experienced power outages and equipment failures and were unable to produce the levels of power expected of them.

“I think that’s to be expected because a lot of these plants that are running when the system is really in a crunch are the older, inefficient plants,” said Michael Goggin, vice president at Grid Strategies, the consulting company that produced the report.

Goggin estimated that the lost power over those 10 days cost the state $280 million.

With demand expected to continue climbing, state officials and utility companies like Pacific Gas & Electric and the Sacramento Municipal Utility District are working to scale up renewable energy sources, including wind, solar and battery power. State officials are hopeful that thousands of new megawatts of battery storage being added to the electricity grid this year will help to diminish the chances of blackouts.

Environmentalists commend those efforts but say a detailed for about how the state plans to retire its fleet of fossil fuel plants is needed.
UK
Dozens of dead river fish apocalyptic, says walker


Miriam Earp - BBC News, Cambridgeshire
Thu, June 22, 2023

"It was grim, apocalyptic even," said a local person after seeing dead fish in the Cam

A large number of fish have been found dead in the river in Cambridge this week.

Locals reported seeing many dead fish in the stretch of the Cam between Elizabeth Bridge and Ditton Meadows.

One resident said the sight was "grim - apocalyptic even".

The Environment Agency (EA) and Anglian Water suggested the cause may be low levels of dissolved oxygen in the water.

Many fish were found dead in the section of river near Ditton Meadows

Simone Chalkley, who lives in the city, saw "maybe 100" dead fish while walking along the bank.

"There were a lot - some single, large, others in batches of 10s and 20s - floating all the way along the edge," she said.


Ms Chalkley has lived in Cambridge for 31 years and said she had never seen so many dead fish at one time.

She added: "I walk by the river every week, sometimes more than once a week.

"The most I've ever seen is one or two dead fish at once, never anything on this scale.

"It was grim - apocalyptic even."

Ms Chalkley said she reported the issue to the EA immediately.


The Environment Agency suggested low levels of oxygen in the water caused the issue

A spokesperson for the EA thanks people for reporting the dead fish and urged people to continue to do so.

They said: "Specialist fisheries officers inspected the river, where it is suspected that low levels of dissolved oxygen after heavy rainfall were the cause of the fish deaths, not pollution."

A spokesperson from Anglian Water confirmed the company attended the inspection at Ditton Meadows with the EA.

They said: "Both ourselves and the EA can confirm that the issue resulting in the death of the fish is not related to Anglian Water in any way."
Archaeologists unearth 4,000-year-old Stonehenge-like sanctuary in the Netherlands

Reuters
Thu, June 22, 2023 

Archaeologists have discovered a 4,000-year-old sanctuary made up of ditches and burial mounds in the central Netherlands that they believe may have served a similar purpose to Stonehenge.

Like the famous stone circle in southern England, the sanctuary - which was as big as at least three soccer fields and built with soil and wood - was built to align with the sun on the solstices.

The archaeologists also discovered offerings, including animal skeletons, human skulls and valuable items such as a bronze spearhead, at the spots where the sun shone through the openings, according to a statement from the municipality of Tiel, a town around 70 kilometers (45 miles) east of Rotterdam where the site was excavated.


An illustration of what researchers think the sanctuary would have looked like. - Municipality of Tiel/Handout/Reuters


“The largest mound served as a sun calendar, similar to the famous stones of Stonehenge in England,” said the statement.

“This sanctuary must have been a highly significant place where people kept track of special days in the year, performed rituals and buried their dead. Rows of poles stood along pathways used for processions.”

While excavating the site in 2017, archaeologists also discovered several graves. One grave was of a woman buried with a glass bead from Mesopotamia, present-day Iraq.



A bronze miniature axe was one item found at the site. - ANP/Zuma Press

It’s the oldest bead ever found in the Netherlands and researchers said it proved people of this area were in contact with people almost 5,000 kilometers (about 3,100 miles) away.

The archaeologists took six years to research more than a million excavated objects dating from the Stone Age, the Bronze Age, the Iron Age, the Roman Empire and the Middle Ages.

After the excavation was finished, the site was covered again to allow construction work.

Some of the discoveries will be showcased in a local museum in Tiel and in the Dutch National Museum of Antiquities.
US Supreme Court turns away veterans who seek disability benefits over 1966 hydrogen bomb accident

Associated Press
Tue, June 20, 2023 

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court on Tuesday rejected an appeal on behalf of some U.S. veterans who want disability benefits because they were exposed to radiation while responding to a Cold War-era hydrogen bomb accident in Spain.

The justices not did comment in turning away an appeal from Victor Skaar, an Air Force veteran in his mid-80s.

Skaar, of Nixa, Missouri, filed class-action claims seeking benefits for him and others who say they became ill from exposure to radiation during the recovery and cleanup of the undetonated bombs at the accident site in Palomares, a village in southern Spain, in 1966.

A federal appeals court rejected the class-action claims. The Supreme Court's action leaves that ruling in place.

The Justice Department, arguing against high-court review, noted that Congress last year enacted legislation that expands eligibility for benefits for many Palomares veterans. But the department also acknowledged that Skaar is not covered by the legislation.

Skaar's lawyers told the Supreme Court that he suffers from leukopenia, described as a condition that can be caused by exposure to radiation. Skaar also has had skin cancer, now in remission, the lawyers wrote in a court filing.

He was among 1,400 U.S. service members who were sent to Palomares to help clean up what has been called the worst radiation accident in U.S. history.

On Jan. 17, 1966, a U.S. B-52 bomber and a refueling plane crashed into each other during a refueling operation in the skies above Palomares, killing seven of 11 crew members but no one on the ground. At the time, the U.S. was keeping nuclear-armed warplanes in the air near the border with the Soviet Union.

The midair collision resulted in the release of four U.S. hydrogen bombs. None of the bombs exploded, but the plutonium-filled detonators on two went off, scattering 7 pounds (3 kilograms) of highly radioactive plutonium 239 across the landscape.
Colombia senate votes down recreational marijuana bill





People demonstrate in front of the Colombian Congress, in favor of the regulation of marijuana for adult use in Bogota

Reuters
Wed, June 21, 2023 

BOGOTA (Reuters) - Colombia's Senate voted down a measure to approve the sale of recreational cannabis to adults late on Tuesday, although supporters including the government of leftist President Gustavo Petro said they would continue to pursue legalization.

The South American country already allows some cannabis derived products, such as oils and creams, to be made and sold for medicinal uses, while legislation passed in the 1980s and 1990s allows consumption and the cultivation of up to 20 plants.

But sales of the drug for recreational purposes are illegal and opponents of legalization celebrated the bill's defeat as ensuring the protection of children and families.

Uruguay, Canada and some states in the U.S. allow the sale of recreational marijuana. Despite the legality of medicinal cannabis, investors have long complained about what they say is Colombia's tortuous export approval process.

The bill would have restricted the use and sale of cannabis and its derived products in schools and universities and placed limits on public consumption.

Backers including Interior Minister Luis Fernando Velasco said recreational marijuana's continued illegality only benefits criminals.

"From the government we will insist on this issue," Velasco said in quotes shared by the Senate on Twitter.

Liberal Party representative Juan Carlos Losada had said the proposed law would save lives, protecting consumers from interactions with criminals.

"We didn't know we'd get so far. We have majorities, we lacked seven votes," he tweeted after the vote on the bill, which needed 54 votes in favor and won 47, with 43 against.

Meanwhile, an ambitious health reform which caused the breakdown of Petro's once-broad congressional coalition will carry over to the new legislative session in July, on the back of a May approval by a committee in the lower house.

A pension reform proposal also won committee approval, while a labor reform will need to be proposed from scratch after its first debate in the lower house did not reach quorum.

(Reporting by Oliver Griffin and Carlos Vargas; Writing by Julia Symmes Cobb; Editing by Alexander Smith)




Colombian military searches for heroic dog who helped find children in the Amazon jungle







Colombia Army Dogs
A handler holds his Belgian Shepherd, named Sargen, at a Colombian Army training facility for military working dogs to serve alongside troops in various capacities in Bogota, Colombia, Wednesday, June 21, 2023. (AP Photo/Ivan Valencia)

MANUEL RUEDA
Wed, June 21, 2023

BOGOTA, Colombia (AP) — With his powerful snout and his pointy ears, Wilson became a national hero in Colombia when he helped the military find four Indigenous children who survived a plane crash and were lost in the Amazon jungle for 40 days.

Pawprints from the military-trained search dog led trackers to the children earlier this month. But the Belgian Shepherd went missing during the search and is now himself the target of a sophisticated rescue operation that started soon after the four young survivors where flown on a helicopter to Bogota.

The Colombian military says it has left 70 soldiers in the dense swath of jungle around the crash site to look for its beloved search dog. And commanders have vowed not to leave the remote area until soldiers return home with the star pup.

It’s been a month since Wilson got lost in the rainforest, and its hard to know if the two-year-old dog is still alive. But the sniffer dog’s rescue would lift the spirits of many Colombians, and add a heartwarming exclamation point to a survival story that already has captivated the world.

“For us it was an honor that our canine helped to find those children” said Sgt. Luis Fernando Seña, the commander of the canine school where Wilson was trained for 14 months in Bogota.

“It would be great news for the country, and for our children if he can be found," Seña said.

Wilson graduated from the canine academy in February, and was taken to the Tolemaida air force base, where he joined Colombia’s special forces. Wilson and four more sniffer dogs, were taken to the rainforest in May, to find the single engine Cessna plane that had crashed into the rainforest, carrying the four children and three adults who later were found dead.

When the small plane was found, and the search party realized that the children could still be alive, Wilson’s handler gave him some clothes to sniff, to track down the kids.

The sniffer dog got separated form the search party on May 18, after he sped off into the forest following a scent. Ten days later, the military found footprints of the children next to his pawprints. Those clues helped them to get closer to the area where the children were found on June 9, said Gen. Pedro Sanchez, who led the rescue effort.

“The children spoke to us, and confirmed that the dog was with them for two or three days” Sanchez, told Colombia’s W radio.

The children are still recovering in hospital and have not spoken to the press. But recently, 13 year-old Lesly Mucutuy, who is the oldest child in the group, drew a picture of the rainforest that included a black and coffee colored dog, which looks like Wilson.

Last week, Colombia’s military said that it helipcoptered two female dogs in heat to the area around the crash site, in the hopes of luring Wilson towards the search party. Food has also been placed for the dog at several points around the crash site as well as clothes belonging to his handler, hoping that their scent can guide Wilson back to safety.

But some experts believe that Wilson may have already perished in the rainforest, where a dog might struggle to find food, and also risks attacks from poisonous snakes.

“It's a tough situation" said Mark Lee, a Colombian dog trainer, and radio host who has 13 pups at home, including a 10-year-old Belgian Shepherd. “I don't see a Belgian Malinois eating fruits and leaves in the forest, or trying to catch an animal to survive. And I wouldn't see that in a dog that is used to having his food in his bowl, at regular hours.”

Still, Colombia continues to root for the stranded pup: Wilson's name has become a popular hashtag on social media sites, with his fans posting messages that urge the military to continue the search. The dog's story has led national news shows. And a spiritual coach who claims she can speak with animals, recently posted a viral video on TikTok, where she urges her followers to thank Wilson for the job he did, and “send light” to the dog, so that he can find his way home —- if that is what his soul desires.

At the canine academy in Bogota, Wilson’s comrades said that the dog is highly trained, and accustomed to overcoming physical obstacles. But ultimately it will have to rely on its instincts to survive.

“He is very energetic, and always stood out because of his strength, his energy and his strong temperament” said Elvis Porras, a trainer who helped to raise Wilson, and worked with the dog until he graduated from the academy earlier this year.

“He is a distant relative of wolves, so I hope his instinct to hunt will help him to survive.”
Ambitious Saudi plans to ramp up Hajj could face challenges from climate change





Saudi soldiers hold umbrellas as they stand alert near Arafat camp in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, Wednesday, June 21, 2023. Muslim pilgrims are converging on Saudi Arabia's holy city of Mecca for the largest hajj since the coronavirus pandemic severely curtailed access to one of Islam's five pillars. 
(AP Photo/Amr Nabil)

RIAZAT BUTT
Thu, June 22, 2023 

MECCA, Saudi Arabia (AP) — Saudi Arabia has ambitious plans to welcome millions more pilgrims to Islam's holiest sites. But as climate change heats up an already scorching region, the annual Hajj pilgrimage — much of which takes place outdoors in the desert — could prove even more daunting.

The increased number of pilgrims, with the associated surge in international air travel and infrastructure expansion, also raises sustainability concerns, even as the oil giant pursues the goal of getting half its energy from renewable resources by 2030.

Next week, Saudi Arabia hosts the first Hajj pilgrimage without the restrictions imposed during the coronavirus pandemic. Some 2.5 million people took part in the pilgrimage in 2019, and around 2 million are expected this year.

Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's wide-ranging plan to overhaul the kingdom's economy, known as Vision 2030, 30 million pilgrims would take part in the Hajj and Umrah — a smaller, year-round pilgrimage. That would be an increase of more than 10 million from pre-pandemic levels.

It will require a vast expansion of hotels and other infrastructure in Mecca and Medina, ancient cities already largely obliterated by high-rises and shopping malls. The additional pilgrims will require more long-distance flights, more buses and cars, more water and electricity.

The Associated Press reached out to several Saudi officials with detailed questions but received no response. It's unclear what, if any, studies the government has done on the environmental impact of the pilgrimage or whether that figures into its plans. And well-intentioned measures, like a high-speed railway network, aren't enough to remove polluting traffic in and around the holy city.

The trains whip through the arid landscape at top speeds of 300 km/h (186 mph), carrying pilgrims in air-conditioned comfort from Jeddah to Mecca. But they stop several kilometers away from the Grand Mosque, meaning pilgrims must either walk at least an hour or take a bus or car to the holy site. The $19 one-way price from Jeddah's airport to Mecca may also be out of reach for pilgrims on lower incomes.

The Hajj is one of the five pillars of Islam, and all Muslims who are able to are required to undertake it at least once in their lives. For pilgrims, retracing the footsteps of the Prophet Muhammad is a profound religious experience that wipes away sins, deepens one's faith and unifies Muslims the world over.

The Saudi royal family’s legitimacy is largely rooted in its custodianship of Islam's holiest sites and its ability to host one of the largest annual religious gatherings on the planet.

Experts have found that the Hajj both contributes to climate change and will be affected by it in the coming decades as one of the hottest places on Earth gets even warmer.

A study of the 2018 Hajj by experts from Victoria University in Melbourne estimated that the five-day pilgrimage produced over 1.8 million tons of greenhouse gases, roughly the amount New York City emits every two weeks. The biggest contributor was aviation, accounting for 87% of emissions.

Abdullah Abonomi, a Saudi researcher and one of the authors of the study, said Saudi authorities have embraced sustainability as part of Vision 2030, which calls for preserving natural resources in order to attract pilgrims, tourists and businesses.

“Everything has changed,” he said, pointing to the establishment of national centers to coordinate sustainable policies, the creation of an environmental police force to crack down on violations and the integration of sustainability into university courses on tourism.

“If you ask four years ago about sustainability ... no one understands what sustainability is,” he said. “But today, everything is going to be better. And I know we are late, but better late than never.”

In the past, he says, cars and buses packed with pilgrims filled the streets around Mecca, belching exhaust into the air, but expansion of the Grand Mosque has led to bigger courtyards and increased pedestrianisation in most of the routes leading to the holy site.

Still, human bottlenecks have replaced traffic, and garbage swirls in clouds of heat. For travel around Mina and Arafat, two crucial Hajj locations, cars and buses remain the two most widespread forms of transport. The journey by foot, in sweltering temperatures, is arduous but can prove faster than four wheels.

In its Hajj ambitions, Saudi Arabia faces managing huge numbers of pilgrims in a rapidly warming world.

During the rituals, pilgrims often walk for hours outside, scale a desert hill known as the Mountain of Mercy, where the prophet is said to have delivered his last sermon, and cast stones at pillars representing the devil in a desert plain. They pack into the Grand Mosque in Mecca to circumambulate the Kaaba. On top of the exertions, the Hajj population skews to the elderly, who are more vulnerable to heat.

On an evening this week around sunset in Mecca, temperatures hovered around 37 degrees Celsius (98 degrees Fahrenheit). The crowds made it feel hotter, stifling any airflow. In a bustling basement supermarket near the Grand Mosque, pilgrims bought handheld fans that spray water on the face and every kind of umbrella.

A 2019 study by experts at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that even if the world succeeds in mitigating the worst effects of climate change, the Hajj would be held in temperatures exceeding an “extreme danger threshold” from 2047 to 2052 and from 2079 to 2086.

Islam follows a lunar calendar, so the Hajj falls around 11 days earlier each year. In 2030, the Hajj will occur in April, and over the next several years it will fall in the winter, when temperatures are milder.

In recent years, Saudi authorities have installed large awnings and misters around holy sites to cool pilgrims. As temperatures climb, authorities will likely need to step up such measures or introduce new strategies like limiting pilgrim numbers in higher-heat years, the heat stress study concluded.

“People who want to do Hajj should get the opportunity to do it,” said Elfatih Eltahir, one of the study's authors. “Global warming is going to make it a little bit more difficult — for some years, for some individuals.”

Muslim activists have launched grassroots initiatives aimed at a “green Hajj,” encouraging pilgrims to only make the journey once, to avoid single-use plastics and to offset carbon emissions by planting trees.

The Hajj “can be green and sustainable if there are smart policies and technology to lower the ecological footprint,” said Odeh Jayyousi, a professor at the Arabian Gulf University in Bahrain who researches sustainability and innovation.

The use of biodegradable plastics, reusable tents, and renewable energy would cut down on greenhouse gases, he said. Artificial intelligence could be brought to bear on logistics, streamlining travel and ensuring that planes and busses are full and do not spend too much time idling.

“The young generation are mindful of the trade-offs and the need to change consumption patterns,” Jayyousi said. “Hajj can offer a platform for displaying the best green practices to global audiences.”

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