GPT-3 can reason about as well as an AMERIKAN college student, UCLA psychologists report

But does the technology mimic human reasoning or is it using a fundamentally new cognitive process?

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - LOS ANGELES

People solve new problems readily without any special training or practice by comparing them to familiar problems and extending the solution to the new problem. That process, known as analogical reasoning, has long been thought to be a uniquely human ability.

But now people might have to make room for a new kid on the block.

Research by UCLA psychologists shows that, astonishingly, the artificial intelligence language model GPT-3 performs about as well as college undergraduates when asked to solve the sort of reasoning problems that typically appear on intelligence tests and standardized tests such as the SAT. The study is published in Nature Human Behaviour.

But the paper’s authors write that the study raises the question: Is GPT-3 mimicking human reasoning as a byproduct of its massive language training dataset or it is using a fundamentally new kind of cognitive process?

Without access to GPT-3’s inner workings — which are guarded by OpenAI, the company that created it — the UCLA scientists can’t say for sure how its reasoning abilities work. They also write that although GPT-3 performs far better than they expected at some reasoning tasks, the popular AI tool still fails spectacularly at others.

“No matter how impressive our results, it’s important to emphasize that this system has major limitations,” said Taylor Webb, a UCLA postdoctoral researcher in psychology and the study’s first author. “It can do analogical reasoning, but it can’t do things that are very easy for people, such as using tools to solve a physical task. When we gave it those sorts of problems — some of which children can solve quickly — the things it suggested were nonsensical.”

Webb and his colleagues tested GPT-3’s ability to solve a set of problems inspired by a test known as Raven’s Progressive Matrices, which ask the subject to predict the next image in a complicated arrangement of shapes. To enable GPT-3 to “see,” the shapes, Webb converted the images to a text format that GPT-3 could process; that approach also guaranteed that the AI would never have encountered the questions before.

The researchers asked 40 UCLA undergraduate students to solve the same problems.

“Surprisingly, not only did GPT-3 do about as well as humans but it made similar mistakes as well,” said UCLA psychology professor Hongjing Lu, the study’s senior author.

GPT-3 solved 80% of the problems correctly — well above the human subjects’ average score of just below 60%, but well within the range of the highest human scores.

The researchers also prompted GPT-3 to solve a set of SAT analogy questions that they believe had never been published on the internet — meaning that the questions would have been unlikely to have been a part of GPT-3’s training data. The questions ask users to select pairs of words that share the same type of relationships. (For example, in the problem “‘Love’ is to ‘hate’ as ‘rich’ is to which word?,” the solution would be “poor.”)

They compared GPT-3’s scores to published results of college applicants’ SAT scores and found that the AI performed better than the average score for the humans.

The researchers then asked GPT-3 and student volunteers to solve analogies based on short stories — prompting them to read one passage and then identify a different story that conveyed the same meaning. The technology did less well than students on those problems, although GPT-4, the latest iteration of OpenAI’s technology, performed better than GPT-3.

The UCLA researchers have developed their own computer model, which is inspired by human cognition, and have been comparing its abilities to those of commercial AI.

“AI was getting better, but our psychological AI model was still the best at doing analogy problems until last December when Taylor got the latest upgrade of GPT-3, and it was as good or better,” said UCLA psychology professor Keith Holyoak, a co-author of the study.

The researchers said GPT-3 has been unable so far to solve problems that require understanding physical space. For example, if provided with descriptions of a set of tools — say, a cardboard tube, scissors and tape — that it could use to transfer gumballs from one bowl to another, GPT-3 proposed bizarre solutions.

“Language learning models are just trying to do word prediction so we’re surprised they can do reasoning,” Lu said. “Over the past two years, the technology has taken a big jump from its previous incarnations.”

The UCLA scientists hope to explore whether language learning models are actually beginning to “think” like humans or are doing something entirely different that merely mimics human thought.

“GPT-3 might be kind of thinking like a human,” Holyoak said. “But on the other hand, people did not learn by ingesting the entire internet, so the training method is completely different. We’d like to know if it’s really doing it the way people do, or if it’s something brand new — a real artificial intelligence — which would be amazing in its own right.”

To find out, they would need to determine the underlying cognitive processes AI models are using, which would require access to the software and to the data used to train the software — and then administering tests that they are sure the software hasn’t already been given. That, they said, would be the next step in deciding what AI ought to become.

“It would be very useful for AI and cognitive researchers to have the backend to GPT models,” Webb said. “We’re just doing inputs and getting outputs and it’s not as decisive as we’d like it to be.”

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JOURNAL

Nature Human Behaviour

DOI

10.1038/s41562-023-01659-w 

AMERIKA

New On Our Sleeves® survey highlights top stressors as students prepare to head back to school

7 in 10 parents say their children experienced challenges last school year, with academic, social and safety concerns continuing to top the list

Reports and Proceedings

NATIONWIDE CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL

COLUMBUS, Ohio (July 27, 2023) — Preparing to head back to school can be a time of many emotions, from excitement to nerves. But for children who found the previous school year to be challenging, it can be an especially stressful experience. 

In a new national survey conducted online by The Harris Poll on behalf of The On Our Sleeves Movement for Children’s Mental Health, 71% of American parents say their children experienced challenges last school year. 

The top factors identified by parents included safety concerns (37%), academic challenges (26%), bullying (24%), ongoing social challenges related to the pandemic (24%), and mental health challenges (22%). The results closely match what parents anticipated when asked the same question prior to the start of last school year.

“Between academic struggles, behavioral challenges, increased depression and anxiety, and challenges making social connections, we’ve been hearing firsthand from families about how tough last school year was for many kids,” said Whitney Raglin Bignall, PhD, associate clinical director of On Our Sleeves and a pediatric psychologist at Nationwide Children’s Hospital. “As we head into the new school year, it’s crucial to understand how kids are thinking and feeling about returning to the classroom. Checking in and having conversations with them is a simple, yet critical way to help minimize any lingering issues before they turn into even bigger challenges this upcoming school year.”

On Our Sleeves is equipping parents and caregivers with tools to help all children adapt to the upcoming school year. The new resources have been developed by mental health experts with On Our Sleeves to help parents and caregivers start the conversation about going back to school, establish habits and routines to set kids up for success this academic year and increase their sense of school belonging. The resources also offer a starting point for caregivers to work with their schools to address challenges they may experience when children are returning to the classroom. 

“Talking about mental health can be difficult but it’s recommended that parents and caregivers initiate daily conversations. This helps children feel comfortable and supported enough to share their thoughts and feelings,” Raglin Bignall said. “Having families work together to understand the child’s challenges and develop goals for the new year can help set kids up for a more successful academic year.” 

For more information and resources on children’s mental health and well-being ahead of the upcoming school year, visit OnOurSleeves.org.

###

 

Survey Method:

This survey was conducted online within the United States by The Harris Poll on behalf of On Our Sleeves from July 11 - 13, 2023 among 585 U.S. parents of 3-17 . The sampling precision of Harris online polls is measured by using a Bayesian credible interval.  For this study, the sample data is accurate to within +/- 4.7 percentage points using a 95% confidence level. For complete survey methodology, including weighting variables and subgroup sample sizes, please contact Molly Devaney at molly@mediasourcetv.com.

 

About On Our Sleeves®

About The On Our Sleeves Movement For Children’s Mental Health 

Children don’t wear their thoughts on their sleeves. With 1 in 5 children living with a significant mental health concern and half of all lifetime mental health concerns starting by age 14, we need to give them a voice. The On Our Sleeves Movement For Children’s Mental Health, created by Nationwide Children’s Hospital, one of the United States’ largest network of pediatric behavioral health treatment providers and researchers, is on a mission to give expert-created resources to all U.S. communities so everyone can understand and promote mental health for children. Our vision is to build a world where mental health is a part of the upbringing of every single child. Nearly 1,000 mental health professionals and researchers at Nationwide Children’s, in partnership with other trusted experts, provide their real-world knowledge and expertise to power On Our Sleeves.  
 

Since the inception of On Our Sleeves in 2018, more than 6 million people in every state across the United States has interacted with the movement’s free pediatric mental health education resources at OnOurSleeves.org. 

 

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METHOD OF RESEARCH

Survey

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

New research method determines health impacts of heat and air quality

Even moderate temperature increases can cause more emergency hospital visits and deaths

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF WATERLOO

The planet experienced the hottest day on record earlier this month and climate projections estimate the intensity of heat waves and poor air quality will increase and continue to cause severe impacts. Researchers from the University of Waterloo and Toronto Metropolitan University have refined and expanded a method of data collection to assess their health impacts.  

They discovered that even moderate temperature increases, for example night-time temperatures starting at 18.4 degrees Celsius, can lead to increased hospital visits and death for older adults and those with cardiorespiratory conditions. 

The new method will help municipalities make a strong case for choosing which mitigation and adaptation measures to pursue to effectively respond to climate changes. The options could include planting more trees for shade, investing in our emergency warning programs, or planning to have more staff available to run ambulances, support hospitals and long-term care homes.  

“Heat waves cause more deaths in Canada than any other climate hazard,” said Dr. Mohamed Dardir, postdoctoral researcher in the School of Environment, Enterprise and Development at Waterloo. “We are getting better at being proactive and planning for climate emergencies, but we still aren’t responding to temperatures in the same way we respond to big weather events, such as floods and fires.” 

The study analyzed the spring and summer in Mississauga and Brampton, Ontario. By integrating data on air quality and heat, the researchers achieved the most detailed picture of the short-term health risks impacting the vulnerable population on a municipal level. The findings confirm there was an increase in the total deaths and hospital visits in these areas with the highest impact happening on the day of the heat and poor air quality and extending two days after these events.  

In the future, the team plans to expand their analysis to include more environmental hazards, such as storms and floods, and factors including ambulatory calls across municipalities in Ontario and other provinces. The researchers say that this work will help civil society and policy makers grasp the magnitude of these climate events and equip decision makers to justify investments in climate resiliency.  

“Much of the financial burden to mitigate the impacts of hot temperatures is left to municipalities, but the health system savings are largely experienced by provinces,” said Dr. Jeffrey Wilson, professor in the School of Environment, Enterprise and Development in Waterloo’s Faculty of Environment. “Being able to detail the cost savings and benefits for society to implement these measures will help the two levels of government understand why working together to address heat events is important.” 

The research study, Heat and air quality related cause-based elderly mortalities and emergency visits, appears in the journal Environmental Research.  

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JOURNAL

Environmental Research

Thinking style differences associated with anti-immigrant conspiracy beliefs

Peer-Reviewed Publication

THE POLISH ASSOCIATION OF SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY

 

IMAGE: ANTI TRUMP IMMIGRATION PROTEST IN BALTIMORE (USA). view more 

CREDIT: SOCIAL JUSTICE - BRUCE EMMERLING // WIKIMEDIA COMMONS HTTPS://WWW.FLICKR.COM/PHOTOS/35702931@N04/32557779976/

In recent years, anti-immigration sentiment and conspiracy theories have become widespread across the U.S. and Europe. 

In this context, a right-wing conspiracy theory has emerged that has become known as the “great replacement”. This conspiracy theory alleges that the recent flows of migration to Europe and the U.S. have been planned by global elites, which, with the support of international organizations and national politicians, seek to replace the autochthonous White and Christian population with Non-white and Muslim immigrants. This conspiracy theory appears particularly toxic, since far-right terrorists have already referred to it in their violent acts.

In their article, published in the peer-reviewed open-access scientific journal Social Psychological Bulletin, Alexander Jedinger, Lena Masch, and Axel Burger explore the extent to which individual differences in thinking are associated with belief in the “great replacement” narrative. Specifically, the scientists wanted to test whether people who naturally tend to be analytical rather than intuitive in their thinking style would be less susceptible to the “great replacement” conspiracy theory. 

To do this, they applied a widely used cognitive reflection test (CRT) in a survey among 906 German adults. The sample of participants was representative of the German population in terms of age, gender, region, and education.

The CRT consists of short quiz-style questions, which make an intuitive but wrong answer come to mind quickly. To find the correct solution, respondents have to overcome their first intuitive response by investing the effort of a second thought. Accuracy on the CRT reliably correlates with a range of social attitudes and beliefs, such as higher ‘faith’ in science, disbelief in paranormal phenomena, or lower religiosity.

For the purpose of the study, the team developed a novel scale designed to measure conspiratorial beliefs. It included statements, such as: “I think that, in 2015, the government planned to bring refugees to Germany to replace the native population with non-European immigrants”, and: “Powerful organizations are behind the migration crisis, which aims to bring large quantities of foreigners to Europe to create a multicultural society, in which natives are the minority”.

The results of the study support the authors’ hypothesis that people who think more analytically, rather than intuitively, are less likely to believe in the “great replacement” conspiracy. This association remained when individual differences in political ideology and education were statistically controlled in the analyses. 

On the other hand, left-wing political views and higher education proved to be associated with less endorsement of the conspiracy theory. 

In the meantime, gender and age were found to have no relation to either belief or disbelief in this specific anti-migration conspiracy theory.

The results of the study suggest that the appeal of the great replacement conspiracy theory to some individuals is rooted in intuitive processes rather than reflective thinking, which has implications for strategies to counter anti-immigration conspiracy sentiments.

As the authors write, “given that studies indicate that reflective thinking can be improved and facilitated by systematic training and interventions, this might be one component of the strategic responses of liberal democracies against the proliferation of the ‘great replacement’ conspiracy theory”.

 

Research article:

Jedinger, A., Masch, L., & Burger, A. M. (2023). Cognitive Reflection and Endorsement of the “Great Replacement” Conspiracy Theory. Social Psychological Bulletin, 18, 1-12. https://doi.org/10.32872/spb.10825

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DOI

10.32872/spb.10825 

ARTICLE TITLE

Cognitive Reflection and Endorsement of the “Great Replacement” Conspiracy Theory

 

Study finds strong support for easing Medicaid enrollment procedures

Survey results show support of efforts to shift administrative burdens away from individuals and improve communication on Medicaid enrollment procedures

Peer-Reviewed Publication

TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY

During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments changed rules and procedures related to Medicaid enrollment. These changes decreased many of the burdens eligible people face when signing up for programs and contributed to a 30 percent increase in Medicaid enrollment. However, the end of public health emergency declarations brings an end to these pandemic policies, which many fear could lead to eligible people losing public health insurance simply because they are unable to fulfill administrative requirements such as accurately filling out and submitting forms, renewing their enrollment and communicating with Medicaid agencies.

A new study investigates public perceptions of administrative barriers affecting health insurance access. Publishing soon in the journal Health Affairs Scholar, it was conducted by Simon Haeder, PhD, associate professor in the Department of Health Policy & Management at the Texas A&M University School of Public Health, with his co-author Don Moynihan, PhD, from the McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown University. The study uses a nationally representative survey of American adults to measure attitudes about policies meant to reduce administrative burdens and explore how these attitudes vary among different populations.

The survey, conducted in late 2022 and early 2023, asked respondents about nine policies aimed at reducing administrative burdens for individuals currently enrolled in the Medicaid program related to the nation’s transition out of the public health emergency. These include automatic renewals, the use of prefilled forms, plain language and alternate communications like text messaging, ensuring states have enough resources to handle enrollment, and increased outreach and enrollment efforts. Haeder measured levels of general support for such administrative changes and how experience with Medicaid, political ideology and ability to handle administrative tasks affect support of these policies.

Administrative burdens are something people face when dealing with public services. These can include learning about procedures, keeping track of enrollment and renewal dates and filling out and submitting forms. Administrative procedures are a necessary part of providing services and some play a key role in reducing waste and fraud. However, in some cases these procedures can be difficult to understand, especially for people without experience managing administrative tasks. In some cases, procedures can even be used to limit access to programs in a way that is less visible to the public. Additionally, such burdens can have a disproportionate impact on groups that are already facing inequalities.

Haeder’s analysis found notable support for policies that reduce administrative burdens across the whole survey sample. However, some groups showed greater support than others. For example, politically liberal respondents, people with experience with Medicaid and those who have difficulty with administrative tasks were more supportive of reducing burdens. In contrast, politically conservative people and those without experience with Medicaid were still supportive but to a lesser degree.

Haeder noted a few limitations with the study, such as the use of an internet-based survey and the fact that the one-time sample cannot measure changes in public perception. Additionally, the survey’s nine policy changes have a minimal chance of increasing enrollment fraud. People may be less likely to support changes to policies aimed at preventing fraud. Future research into other policies and attitudes toward other public assistance programs will be valuable.

Despite these limitations, the findings of this study point to substantial public support of efforts to shift administrative burdens away from individuals and improve communication and outreach about Medicaid enrollment procedures. Pandemic policies showed the potential success of reducing administrative burdens, and public support of such changes could lead to changes in how governments handle assistance programs in the future.

By George Hale, Texas A&M University School of Public Health

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JOURNAL

Health Affairs Scholar

DOI

10.1093/haschl/qxad001 

ARTICLE TITLE

Most Americans support minimizing administrative burdens for Medicaid recipients as the public health emergency ends

The Caspian Conundrum: Receding Waters Spell Trouble For Kazakhstan

By RFE/RL staff - Jul 25, 2023

The receding waters of the Caspian Sea, particularly in Kazakhstan's region, have triggered a state of emergency due to the severe implications for local infrastructure and ecosystem.

The decrease in water levels has impacted the operations of the Mangyshlak Atomic Energy Combine and the Aqtau seaport, both of which depend on the sea for their functioning, leading to critical economic concerns.

There is a contentious debate about the causes of this issue, with some attributing it to climate change and upstream regulation of rivers.

Azamat Sarsenbaev, an activist from the Kazakh Caspian Sea city of Aqtau, is trying to bring attention to a problem that is closing in on residents of his city at the same time as their only water source recedes further into the distance.

“Ten years ago we would swim around 200 meters in order to get to these rocks,” Sarsenbaev told RFE/RL’s Kazakh Service, recalling his childhood. “Now we are standing on them.”

There is no doubt that the Caspian Sea -- the world’s largest enclosed body of water that is shared by Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan -- is shrinking.

And because Kazakhstan’s section of the Caspian is among the shallowest, it is no surprise that authorities here are scrambling to deal with severe consequences that are no longer far off on the horizon.

Earlier this summer, Aqtau officials announced a state of emergency in relation to the recession of the shoreline -- a measure intended to accelerate mitigation efforts.

Kazakh Environment Minister Zulfiya Suleimenova acknowledged the scale of the problem on the day of the June 8 announcement, citing “climate change as an exogenous factor” and upstream “regulation” of rivers that flow into the lake, such as the Russian-originating Volga and the Ural, as the main causes.

Sarsenbaev is less diplomatic.

While acknowledging that Kazakhstan needs to use water more efficiently, he argues that the construction of multiple dams and other industrial objects along the Russian parts of those two rivers is causing big problems for Kazakhstan.

“They stop the water flow. And if less is coming in from the rivers, the Caspian will keep shrinking,” he said, dismissing the idea popular among many Aqtau residents that the latest plunge is the result of time-honored tectonic shifts under the seabed.

Geological changes have caused sudden shoreline recessions in the past -- including in the late 1970s -- but “a lot has changed in 50 years,” Sarsenbaev argued.

Aqtau: A City On The Edge

Experts say the Caspian’s most recent shrinking phase began around 2005.

In the last few years, the rate of recession has increased, reaching a visibly critical low.

According to Nature, a British scientific journal, the Caspian Sea’s levels are projected to fall by nine to 18 meters “in medium to high emissions scenarios” before 2100.

The drop is “caused by a substantial increase in lake evaporation that is not balanced by increasing river discharge or precipitation,” the authors of a paper published in 2020 said.

Indeed, current trends suggest that both of those balancing factors may now be in decline.

The need for immediate action is not lost on Murat Igaliev, deputy director of the Mangyshlak Atomic Energy Combine (MAEK), an energy complex that comprises a decommissioned nuclear power plant -- thermal power plants that provide heat and electricity for Aqtau -- and a plant that desalinates water for the town where more than 200,000 people live.

MAEK, in turn, depends on Caspian Sea water drawn from a water intake channel.

In an interview with RFE/RL’s Kazakh Service, Igaliev said that 590 meters of the channel was submerged in 2005, compared to just 145 meters now.

During a harsh winter last year, part of the channel froze, contributing to a drop in power generation, while in the long-run, problems at the aging MAEK threaten the viability of Aqtau as a city.

The urgent reconstruction work required for the channel is part of the reason the authorities declared a state of emergency over the Caspian.

Igaliev said it is vital to find a contractor to begin preparatory work for dredging as quickly as possible and determine “what equipment is better to use so as not to harm the marine ecosystem.”

In addition to the former Soviet “closed town’s” existence, declining water levels in the Caspian put the work of seaports central to the so-called “middle corridor” -- a cross-Caspian trade route that bypasses Russia -- into jeopardy.

Kazakhstan’s traditionally sleepy ports of Aqtau and Quryq have seen demand for their services increase in the wake of the Ukraine war, as some shippers look for alternatives from routes that traverse Russia, which has been hit hard by international sanctions.

Kazakhstan, in turn, is keen to boost modest oil exports across the Caspian as far as possible in order to ease a near-total dependence on a troubled pipeline that sends Kazakh oil to international markets by way of the Novorossiysk-2 Marine Terminal in Russia.

But the director of the Aqtau port, Abay Turikpenbaev, said the shallow waters near his port had already impacted the work of oil tankers, which can no longer be loaded to capacity.

Turikpenbaev noted that from January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2023, the water levels at the port fell 30 centimeters, significantly more than the average of 5-10 centimeters in recent years.

If that trend continues, dredging work will have to be carried out in order to prevent the port from falling into disuse, Turiqpenbaev told RFE/RL’s Kazakh Service, bemoaning a lack of research into the problem by Kazakh institutions.

For Quryq, some 70 kilometers from Aqtau, the problem is less pressing, given that the port, which was opened in 2017, occupies a position on the shore where the water is deeper.

Nevertheless, Quryq’s port director Serik Akhmetov said the port is already planning for a worst case scenario.

“There are forecasts that the sea will recover. There are also predictions of the opposite. But we cannot sit back and wait. We are currently negotiating with Belgian and Greek dredging companies. We have been dealing with this question for the last six months,” Akhmetov said.

Is Russia To Blame?

Scientists have few doubts that a drying Caspian will have major impacts -- ecological and socioeconomic -- on its five littoral states and the wider region.

The most obvious evidence for that is the fate of the Aral Sea, once one of the largest inland bodies of water in the world.

The Aral catastrophe, driven by the Soviet Union’s cotton-growing policies in Central Asia, bequeathed a mostly dried up lake that split off into separate Kazakh and Uzbek sections.

And the tragedy still haunts neighbors further afield, as dust storms from the dried parts of the lake travel across borders, lacing farmland in countries like Turkmenistan with salt.

But the degree, timing, and nature of the Caspian impact will vary from littoral state to littoral state, making collective action harder to guarantee.

This is a challenge insofar as the effects are less immediate for Moscow, whose Volga River alone accounts for around 80 percent of the Caspian’s inflow, with the Ural and other Russian rivers playing important secondary roles.

During the Soviet Union’s industrialization drive in the 1930s, systematic damming along the Volga was seen as a factor in a sudden drop in the Caspian’s sea levels that was later corrected by a spell of strong precipitation.

And Kazakh experts believe Russia is now intensifying its use of upstream water, hastening the rapid decline of the northeastern Caspian that also hosts Kazakhstan’s economically vital Qashagan oil field.


Former Water Minister Nariman Qypshaqbaev told RFE/RL’s Kazakh Service that he believed state officials who sign and oversee the current transboundary water-sharing agreements with Russia had not done their duty in regards to the Caspian.

“If seven billion cubic meters of [water from] the Ural were still entering the Caspian [each year], then the Ural would not be as shallow [in Kazakhstan] as it is [today],” Qypshaqbaev argued, referencing an agreement that he said was in place during his time as a minister more than two decades ago.

Nowadays, Qypshaqbaev claimed, Russia only guarantees Kazakhstan its agreed share of the Ural’s water for farming and other economic activities, marking the end of the idea that “both sides are responsible for the water going into the Caspian, because the Caspian is common.”

By Ainur Saparova via RFE/RL's Kazakh Service

Caspian Pipeline Consortium - Wikipedia

America Flips Switch On First New Nuclear Reactor in 7 Years

By Charles Kennedy - Jul 31, 2023

The United States has started operations on its first new nuclear reactor in seven years, in a development hailed as having a positive impact on the climate as it releases no greenhouse gas emissions. 

The Waynesboro, Georgia-based Unit 3 reactor at Plant Vogtle began delivering power to the grid on Monday after having successfully completed tests this spring.

The Westinghouse AP1000 commercial reactor is now generating some 1,110 megawatts of energy to power around half a million homes and businesses, according to its grid operator, Georgia Power, as reported by CNBC. The reactor will be able to operate at this level for as long as eight decades.

The nuclear milestone is the first new reactor to be put into operation since 2016, in Tennessee. 

The debate continues over whether nuclear power is a friend or foe to the climate. 

The anti-nuclear lobby feels that nuclear energy is not a legitimate element of the renewable transition, citing meltdown risks and dangerous storage of nuclear waste fuel. 

Proponents, on the other hand, argue that there have been major advancements in the treatment and storage of nuclear waste fuel, and that the U.S. has a clean track record in terms of dangerous accidents. 

Another hurdle is American dependence on Russia for uranium to power nuclear reactors. The U.S. imported some 14% of its uranium and 28% of all enrichment services from Russia in 2021 and is actively pursuing alternatives for uranium as a nuclear fuel. 

Russia is home to one of the world’s largest uranium resources with an estimated 486,000 tons of uranium, the equivalent of 8% of global supply. It also houses the biggest uranium enrichment complex in the world, accounting for nearly half of the global capacity. 

Japan Considers Subsidy Grants To Revive Nuclear Power

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jul 26, 2023

Japan’s nuclear energy policy has been transformed by last year’s energy crisis, with the country now looking to boost its nuclear industry.

The country is now considering granting subsidies to help with the necessary safety upgrades at nuclear power plants that are idle.

Nuclear power currently accounts for just 6% of Japan’s power generation mix, but the country is looking to boost that number.

Japan, which has made a U-turn in its nuclear energy policy in the wake of last year’s energy crisis, is considering granting subsidies to help with the necessary upgrades at nuclear power plants that are currently idle.

Nuclear power stations in Japan will be invited to take part in an auction in 2024 to get government subsidies for the necessary safety upgrades, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing documents of the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The winning projects would give the nuclear power plants subsidies for 20 years that would help cover the costs for meeting the much stricter safety standards after the Fukushima disaster in 2011.

In the wake of the disaster, Japan closed all its nuclear power plants that underwent rigorous safety checks and inspections.

In recent years, Japan has restarted part of its nuclear power facilities. The first two reactors restarted in August and October 2015, with a further eight having restarted since. A total of 16 reactors were in the process of restart approval as of February 2023, according to the World Nuclear Association.

Nuclear power currently accounts for just 6% of the power generation mix in Japan, down from 30% before Fukushima.

However, the resource-poor country which needs to import about 90% of its energy requirements made a U-turn in its nuclear energy policy at the end of last year, as its energy import bill soared.

Japan is bringing back nuclear power as a key energy source, looking to protect its energy security in the crisis that led to surging fossil fuel prices. The Japanese government confirmed in December 2022 a new policy for nuclear energy, which the country had mostly abandoned since the Fukushima disaster in 2011.

A panel of experts under the Japanese Ministry of Industry decided that Japan would allow the development of new nuclear reactors and allow available reactors to operate after the current limit of 60 years.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

New Catalyst Efficiently Cleans Methane From Natural Gas Exhaust

By Brian Westenhaus - Jul 27, 2023

The novel catalyst, created using single or few palladium atoms, has demonstrated the ability to remove methane from natural gas engine exhaust at temperatures less than 350° Celsius while maintaining stability at higher temperatures.

The significance of this catalyst lies in its ability to form highly active two- or three-atom clusters at low temperatures, which efficiently break apart methane molecules and then disperse back into single atoms at high temperatures.

Although the technology is still in its research phase, it promises to greatly improve the efficiency and environmental impact of natural gas engines.

A Washington State University catalyst design using a single or just a few palladium atoms removed 90% of unburned methane from natural gas engine exhaust. The research showed that the single-atom catalyst was able to remove methane from engine exhaust at lower temperatures, less than 350° Celsius (662° Fahrenheit), while maintaining reaction stability at higher temperatures.

The research effort between Washington State University and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory has been reported in the journal, Nature Catalysis.

Yong Wang, Regents Professor in WSU’s Gene and Linda Voiland School of Chemical Engineering and Bioengineering and a corresponding author on the paper noted, “It’s almost a self-modulating process which miraculously overcomes the challenges that people have been fighting – low temperature inactivity and high temperature instability.”

Natural gas engines are used in about 30 million to 40 million vehicles worldwide and are popular in Europe and Asia. The gas industry also uses them to run compressors that pump natural gas to people’s homes. They are generally considered cleaner than gasoline or diesel engines, creating less carbon and particulate pollution.

However, when these natural gas-powered engines start up, they emit unburnt, heat-trapping methane because their catalytic converters don’t work well at low temperatures. The catalysts for methane removal are either inefficient at lower exhaust temperatures or they severely degrade at higher temperatures.

Co-author Frank Abild-Pedersen, a staff scientist at SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory explained, “There’s a big drive towards using natural gas, but when you use it for combustion engines, there will always be unburnt natural gas from the exhaust, and you have to find a way to remove that. If not, you cause more severe global warming. If you can remove 90% of the methane from the exhaust and keep the reaction stable, that’s tremendous.”

A single-atom catalyst with the active metals singly dispersed on a support also uses every atom of the expensive and precious metals, Wang added. “If you can make them more reactive, that’s the icing on the cake.”

In their work, the researchers were able to show that their catalyst made from single palladium atoms on a cerium oxide support efficiently removed methane from engine exhaust, even when the engine was just starting.

They found that trace amounts of carbon monoxide that are always present in engine exhaust played a key role in dynamically forming active sites for the reaction at room temperature. The carbon monoxide helped the single atoms of palladium migrate to form two- or three-atom clusters that efficiently break apart the methane molecules at low temperatures.

Then, as the exhaust temperatures rose, the sub-nanometer-sized clusters re-dispersed to single atoms again so that the catalyst was thermally stable. This reversible process enables the catalyst to work effectively and uses every palladium atom the entire time the engine was running – including when it started cold.

Christopher Tassone, a staff scientist at SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory and co-author on the paper commented, “We were really able to find a way to keep the supported palladium catalyst stable and highly active and because of the diverse expertise across the team, to understand why this was occurring.”

The researchers are working to further advance the catalyst technology. They would like to better understand why palladium behaves in one way while other precious metals such as platinum act differently.

The research has a way to go before it will be put inside a car, but the researchers are collaborating with industry partners as well as with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to someday move the work closer to commercialization.

In addition to Wang, Abild-Pedersen, and Tassone, Dong Jiang, senior research associate in the Voiland School, also led the work. The work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Basic Energy Sciences.

***

It might be a surprise to North Americans that there are so many natural gas fueled vehicles. In North America one will find some propane vehicles although very few are on road machines.


That there is so much concern for methane in the exhaust one might think that fuel management systems could be quite simple or primitive. Just how the machine can be running so rich as to expel unburned fuel is something of a mystery in the 21st century.

Perhaps some effort might be directed to fuel management and efficiency as well. That might get more positive consumer attention than a precious metal catalyst.

By Brian Westenhaus via New Energy and Fuel

Why The World Just Can’t Kick Coal

By Robert Rapier - Jul 27, 2023, 3:00 PM CDT

U.S. coal demand has decreased due to the increased availability of natural gas, growth in renewable energy sources, and stricter environmental regulations.

Despite the decline in the US, global coal consumption, especially in Asia and China, which consumes 55% of the world's coal, continues to rise due to the relative cheapness and abundance of coal, and rapid industrialization.

Coal demand rebounded in the US and EU in 2021 and 2022 due to the European energy crisis and increased coal burning as an emergency measure, raising concerns over the ability to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.

In the U.S., coal demand has been on a downward trend for about 15 years. There have been three significant drivers behind this decline.

One of the primary reasons for the decline in U.S. coal demand is the increased availability and affordability of natural gas. The advent of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and advanced drilling techniques led to a significant expansion of natural gas production, resulting in lower natural gas prices. Many power plants have shifted from coal to natural gas as it produces fewer greenhouse gas emissions and can be more economically viable.

At the same time, there has been substantial growth in renewable energy sources like wind and solar. Falling costs and government incentives have made renewable energy more attractive for power generation, reducing the need for coal-based electricity.

Stricter environmental regulations on emissions, especially from coal-fired power plants, helped drive this shift. The regulatory changes were implemented to address air and water pollution, as well as climate change concerns. These regulations have made coal-based electricity generation less competitive compared to cleaner alternatives.

These are positive developments given coal’s role as the fossil fuel source with the highest carbon dioxide emissions. However, it’s very important to note that U.S. demand is small relative to the world. The U.S. uses only 6.6% of the world’s coal, so coal consumption trends outside the U.S. are even more important.

The news on that front isn’t nearly as positive.

Coal consumption is still high and growing in many developing countries, particularly in Asia. This is due to the relative cheapness and abundance of coal, as well as the rapid industrialization of these countries.

China, for example, consumes 55% of the world’s coal, and that consumption continues to rise. As a whole, the Asia Pacific region is responsible for 81% of the world’s coal consumption, as well as the vast majority of the world’s ongoing carbon dioxide emissions.

China’s coal demand has increased for six straight years, setting new record highs in 2021 and 2022. Current heat waves in China have created a soaring demand for electricity, leading to unprecedented amounts of coal consumption at China’s more than 1,000 coal-fired power plants. As a result, China is on track to set a new record high for coal consumption in 2023.

This trend is set to continue. Last year the Chinese government approved a record-breaking 86 gigawatts of new coal-fired power capacity. This raises significant doubts about whether China can meet its emissions goals by 2030.

Although China is the single biggest coal consumer, trends in developed countries have reversed since 2020. Prior to 2020, developed countries, especially in Europe and North America, were significantly reducing their coal consumption.

But demand rebounded in the U.S. in 2021, and in the EU in 2021 and 2022. That trend has continued into 2023. The primarily culprit has been the energy crisis in Europe, with led several European countries to delay coal plant phase-outs and increase coal burning as an emergency measure to compensate for reduced Russian natural gas supplies.

Coal companies in the U.S., which had been battered for years, surged as coal demand bounced back. Peabody Energy, which hit a low of $1.05 per share in November 2020, is now around $22 a share. Arch Resources saw its profits jump 12-fold from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022, and its share price quadrupled in response. Consol Energy saw its share price go from $4 in 202o to nearly $70 today.

Thus, the market is being incentivized to continue producing coal, because despite the need to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, coal consumption continues to grow.

With China consuming the lion’s share of coal, and with the Chinese government continuing to approve new coal-fired power plants, it is hard to be optimistic about the prospects for significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions anytime soon. I will discuss the latest trends in greenhouse gas emissions in the next article.

In conclusion, while the challenges of reducing global coal consumption are significant, they may soon be overshadowed by the even greater challenges of curbing global oil consumption. There are viable alternatives for replacing coal, but the task of replacing oil is far more daunting because there are fewer economic alternatives. The decisions we make will ultimately be driven by the signals of change, but those signals are currently predominated by price and availability.

By Robert Rapier