Gas-electric hybrid vehicles get a boost in the US from Ford, others

Paul Lienert and Ben Klayman
Wed, August 23, 2023




 New York International Auto Show, in Manhattan, New York City

By Paul Lienert and Ben Klayman

DETROIT (Reuters) - Hybrid gasoline-electric vehicles may not be dying as fast as some predicted in the auto sector’s rush to develop all-electric models.

Ford Motor is the latest of several top automakers, including Toyota and Stellantis, planning to build and sell hundreds of thousands of hybrid vehicles in the U.S. over the next five years, industry forecasters told Reuters.

The companies are pitching hybrids as an alternative for retail and commercial customers who are seeking more sustainable transportation, but may not be ready to make the leap to a full electric vehicle.

"Hybrids really serve a lot of America," said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at New York-based investment manager Ingalls & Snyder. "Hybrid is a great alternative to a pure electric vehicle (and) it's an easier sell to a lot of customers."

Interest in hybrids is rebounding as consumer demand for pure electrics has not accelerated as quickly as expected. Surveys cite a variety of reasons for tepid EV demand, from high initial cost and concerns about range to lengthy charging times and a shortage of public charging stations.

“With the tightening of emissions requirements, hybrids provide a cleaner fleet without requiring buyers to take the leap into pure electrics,” said Sam Fiorani, vice president at AutoForecast Solutions.

S&P Global Mobility estimates hybrids will more than triple over the next five years, accounting for 24% of U.S. new vehicle sales in 2028. Sales of pure electrics will claim about 37%, leaving combustion vehicles — including so-called “mild” hybrids — with a nearly 40% share.

S&P estimates hybrids will account for just 7% of U.S. sales this year, and pure electrics 9%, with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles taking more than 80%.

Historically, hybrids have accounted for less than 10% of total U.S. sales, with Toyota’s long-running Prius among the most popular models. The Japanese automaker has consistently said hybrids will play a key role in the company's long-range electrification plans as it slowly ramps up investment in pure EVs.

Ford is the latest to roll out more aggressive hybrid plans. On its second-quarter earnings call in late July, Chief Executive Jim Farley surprised analysts, saying Ford expects to quadruple its hybrid sales over the next five years after earlier promising an aggressive push into all-electric vehicles.

“This transition to EVs will be dynamic,” Farley told analysts. “We expect the EV market to remain volatile until the winners and losers shake out.”

Among Ford’s competitors, General Motors appears to have little interest in hybrids in the U.S., while Stellantis will follow Toyota and Ford’s hedge by offering U.S. buyers a choice of different powertrains, including hybrids, until sales of pure electric vehicles start to take off after mid-decade, according to forecaster GlobalData.

In a statement, GM said it "continues to be committed to its all-electric future ... While we will have hybrid vehicles in our global fleet, our focus remains on transitioning our portfolio to electric by 2030.”

Stellantis said hybrids now account for 36% of Jeep Wrangler sales and 19% of Chrysler Pacifica sales. In addition to new pure electric models coming soon, "we are very bullish on hybrids going forward," a spokesperson said.

This year, manufacturers are marketing more than 60 hybrids in the U.S. Toyota and its premium Lexus brand are selling at least 18 different hybrid models, enabling the Japanese automaker to maintain its stranglehold on the sector.

Hyundai and sister brand Kia offer seven hybrid models, with Ford and Lincoln six. Stellantis offers just three, and GM’s sole entry, due out later this year, is a hybrid version of the Chevrolet Corvette sports car.

But hybrids remain in short supply at many U.S. dealerships.

Andrew DiFeo, dealer principal at Hyundai of St. Augustine, south of Jacksonville, FL, doesn't see EV adoption hitting the levels the Biden administration wants until EV charging stations are as ubiquitous as gas stations.

"Hybrids are a great bridge to whatever the future holds,” said DiFeo, adding, “I've got zero in stock (and) I've got customers that want all of them."

(Reporting by Paul Lienert and Ben Klayman in Detroit; Editing by Nick Zieminski)

US wildland firefighter pay threatened by Republican feud in Congress

David Morgan
Wed, August 23, 2023
Search, rescue and recovery personnel conduct search operations of areas damaged by Maui wildfires

By David Morgan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. federal wildland firefighters are facing a huge potential pay cut this autumn that lawmakers in Washington warn could cause thousands to walk off the job, due to a feud among Republicans in Congress over federal spending.

That could mean dire consequences for 16 U.S. states, mostly in the West and Southwest, where about 16,600 firefighters were battling more than 90 large fires across nearly 630,000 acres as of Tuesday, National Interagency Fire Center data show.

The standoff between lawmakers continues as the Hawaiian island of Maui struggles to recover from a massive blaze that killed at least 115 people and Canada's British Columbia province is also being ravaged by fire.

"We're going to have these people out fighting wildfires for us in this country. And their pay could be cut by 50%," said Representative Mike Simpson, an Idaho Republican who chairs the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Interior, Environment and Related Agencies.

"You're going to have ... wildfire fighters out here that - hell, I don't know - they might walk off the job with somebody who's going to cut their pay 50%," he told Reuters.

The federal government employs an estimated 18,700 wildland firefighters. Republicans and Democrats in Congress agree that failure to protect their pay could lead to a mass exodus at a time when climate change is fueling more severe wildfires over longer seasons.

At issue is a $60 million supplemental funding request from Democratic President Joe Biden, which would protect federal wildland firefighter pay through December, if Congress can avoid a government shutdown when current funding expires on Sept 30.

'HOSTAGE TO CONGRESSIONAL INFIGHTING'

Biden raised wildland firefighter pay to a minimum of $15 per hour in 2021 and later signed into law a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, which provided annual pay raises of $20,000 or 50% of a firefighter's base pay, whichever was smaller.

The pay hikes from the infrastructure bill are expected to run out around Sept. 30, according to the White House.

"Firefighters cannot be held hostage to congressional infighting," said Lucas Mayfield, president of the advocacy group Grassroots Wildland Firefighters. He warned that a pay cut could not only lead firefighters to walk off the job this year but make an already challenging recruitment environment more difficult in 2024.

"People are going to be looking for outside opportunities to have a livable and plannable income," Mayfield said.

The Democratic-led Senate appears poised to begin moving forward on bipartisan funding.

But it is unclear whether the Republican-controlled House of Representatives can overcome infighting between hardline and centrist Republicans to enact spending legislation on time.

Wildfires have burned just under 1.8 million acres in the United States this year, according to data from the National Interagency Fire Center. The cost and danger of U.S. wildfires has been growing in recent decades.

More than 10 million acres were affected in 2015 and 2017. Last year, the cost of suppressing wildfires across 7.6 million acres surpassed $3.5 billion, according to the center.

"Failure isn't an option," said Representative Joe Neguse, a Colorado Democrat who is working to address the pay gap with a bipartisan coalition of House and Senate lawmakers.

"Now is not the time ... to be engaging in this kind of the political gamesmanship around something as important as the livelihood of our wildland firefighters," he told Reuters.

Neguse and Senator Kyrsten Sinema, an independent from Arizona, have introduced legislation in their respective chambers that would avoid the pay cliff and authorize future pay increases for wildland firefighters.

Salary authorization would need to be included along with funding for firefighter pay in a short-term stopgap measure, special supplemental legislation or annual appropriations, depending on what Congress can pass by Sept 30.

(Reporting by David Morgan; Editing by Scott Malone and Alistair Bell)

Climate change may force more farmers and ranchers to consider irrigation -- at a steep cost

MELINA WALLING
Wed, August 23, 2023 at 7:37 AM MDT·5 min rea

 

Gilda Jackson walks on a pasture on her property that she grows hay on in Paradise, Texas, Monday, Aug. 21, 2022. Jackson, who trains and sells horses, has been plagued by grasshoppers this year, a problem that only gets worse when the hatch quickens in times of heat and drought. Jackson watched this summer as the insects chewed through a 35-acre pasture she badly needs for hay and what they didn't destroy, the sun burned up. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

The Texas ranch where Gilda Jackson trains and sells horses has been plagued by grasshoppers this year, a problem that only gets worse when the hatch quickens in times of heat and drought. Jackson watched this summer as the insects chewed through a 35-acre pasture she badly needs for hay; what they didn't destroy, the sun burned up.

Irrigation might have saved Jackson's hay, but she and her husband rejected the idea about 10 years ago over the cost: as much as $75,000 for a new well and all the equipment. But now — with an extended drought and another U.S. heat wave this week that will broil her land about an hour northwest of Dallas for days in 100-degree-plus temperatures — Jackson said she is “kind of rethinking.”

Many other farmers and ranchers in the U.S. might be forced to do the same in coming decades, according to recent research into the expected effects of the rising heat and more frequent weather extremes associated with climate change.

That's if they even can. Some places in the U.S. are already struggling with groundwater depletion, such as California, Arizona, Nebraska and other parts of the central Plains.

“There’s no surprise that in the future when it gets hotter and there’s more demand for water, people are going to be using more water,” said Jonathan Winter, an associate professor of geography at Dartmouth College and an author on a new study on future U.S. irrigation costs and benefits in Communications Earth & Environment.

Winter and his team used a computer model to look at how heat and drought might affect crop production by the middle and end of this century, given multiple scenarios for the emissions of warming greenhouse gases. In places like California and Texas where “everyone is dropping their straw into the glass” of groundwater, as Winter put it, current levels of irrigation won't be viable in the long term because there isn’t enough water.

But use of irrigation may grow where groundwater supply isn’t presently an issue.

In much of the Midwest, including the corn- and soybean-rich states of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and the Dakotas, farmers might see a benefit in the next 50 years from installing irrigation infrastructure. That’s an expensive investment, and whether it will pay off may depend on humans' ability to stem the worst effects of climate change. A worst-case scenario would involve one generation investing in costly irrigation equipment, only for the next to see them fail to keep crops alive through extreme heat and weather.

There are many irrigation methods for row crops, but the most common is pivot irrigation — the long strands of pipes mounted on wheels that are pulled in a circle around a water source to sprinkle water onto a field. The equipment can easily cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, plus the cost of drilling a new well if needed, along with the electricity to pull up the water.

But if the system boosts yields and provides a return of $50 an acre or more, it can pay off well for a farmer, said Brady Brewer, an associate professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University.

While scientists are confident in the warming effects of greenhouse gas emissions, precipitation is harder to nail down, especially in the Midwest, said Dave Gochis, a senior scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research who was not involved with Winter’s study.

Climate change produces more weather extremes, meaning both an increased risk of flash droughts — quick, intense periods of short-term heat and dry weather — and more heavy rain and flooding events as precipitation increases with more water in the atmosphere.

“That means we need to be more nimble and agile in how we manage water resources,” Gochis said.

Brewer hasn't seen much increased interest in irrigation from Midwest farmers yet. So far, a surplus of water has been the bigger issue in many places, but if yields start showing losses in the coming years due to worsening heat and flash droughts, “that's when farmers will invest,” he said.

Farmers who don't choose irrigation, for now, might cope by planning ahead.

They could choose different crops with different water needs from season to season or be compensated for fallowing fields in times of water stress. Or they might use tools like the one developed by North Carolina State researchers Sankar Arumugam, a professor, and Hemant Kumar, a Ph.D. candidate.

They recently helped create a computer modeling tool, outlined in the journal Water Resources Research, which they hope will help farmers and water managers use a combination of seasonal forecasts and other data to find a sweet spot for balancing crop revenue and water use.

In the Southeast, where they focused their work and where water resources are plentiful, “it’s more of a proactive strategy” for people who already have irrigation equipment, Arumugam said, “so that we don’t overexploit the resources that are in place.”

Irrigation, used responsibly, can be part of adapting to climate change, but “it’s a moving target,” Winter said.

He called for supporting farmers who have to make hard decisions as they adapt to climate change — for instance, training them to grow less water-intensive crops or giving them low-cost loans to improve irrigation efficiency.

But he also urged action to limit climate change’s worst effects. Farmers need resources to make adjustments, but especially in the West, “there’s only so much water,” he said.

Upmanu Lall, director of the Columbia Water Center, said climate change isn't the only thing driving farmers' decisions. Lall, who wasn't involved in Winter's work, said crop insurance and government subsidies can push farming methods in one direction or another.

Brewer, the Purdue professor, agreed.

“What we’re seeing is because we have crop insurance that reduces the farmers’ risk, that’s probably what’s driving some of these farmers to plant soybeans or corn” rather than more drought-tolerant crops such as wheat or sorghum in places like the western Plains, Brewer said.

He added that research shows if farmers have crop insurance and feel more secure in planting crops that use more water, that "may lead to higher irrigation uptake as well.”











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Follow Melina Walling on Twitter @MelinaWalling.

Iran, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are among 6 nations set to join China and Russia in BRICS economic bloc

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, centre right speaks to China's President Xi Jinping as President of Brazil Luiz Inacio Lula, left, and Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi look on, at the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, Thursday, Aug. 24, 2023.

 (AP Photo/Themba Hadebe)


GERALD IMRAY and MOGOMOTSI MAGOME
Thu, August 24, 2023

JOHANNESBURG (AP) — Iran and Saudi Arabia were among six countries set to join Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa in the BRICS economic bloc from next year, the bloc announced Thursday, a move that will likely throw more scrutiny on Beijing's political influence in the Persian Gulf.

The United Arab Emirates, Argentina, Egypt and Ethiopia are also set to become new members of BRICS from 2024.

BRICS was set up in 2009 as a group of emerging market economies and has become one of the leading voices for more representation of the developing world and the Global South in world affairs.

It currently represents around 40% of the world's population and more than a quarter of the world's GDP, although that is set to increase with the new members, which include three of the world's biggest oil producers in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran.

Recently, questions have been raised over if BRICS is taking an anti-West turn under the influence of China and Russia amid Beijing's deteriorating relationship with the United States and Russia's stand-off with the West over the war in Ukraine.

Mohammad Jamshidi, the political deputy of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi, called the decision to add his country “a historic move.”

“A strategic victory for Iran’s foreign policy,” Jamshidi wrote on X, the website formerly known as Twitter. “Felicitations to the Supreme Leader of Islamic Revolution and great nation of Iran.”

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, whose country presently chairs BRICS, made the announcement on the six new members on the final day of the bloc's summit in the financial district of Sandton in Johannesburg.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping are attending the summit and were present alongside Ramaphosa for the announcement.

“This membership expansion is historic,” Xi said. “It shows the determination of BRICS countries for unity and development.”

“Over the years, China has stood in solidarity with developing countries through thick and thin."


From left, Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, China's President Xi Jinping, South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov pose for a BRICS group photo during the 2023 BRICS Summit at the Sandton Convention Centre in Johannesburg, South Africa, Wednesday, Aug. 23, 2023.

 (Gianluigi Guercia/Pool via AP)

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not travel to the summit after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for him in March for the abduction of children from Ukraine. He has participated in the summit virtually, while Russia was represented at the announcement in Johannesburg by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

While Saudi Arabia had been touted as a likely new member if the five current BRICS members reached a consensus on expansion, Iran's inclusion had been viewed as possibly politically problematic. China and Russia were pushing for expansion, but Brazil, India and South Africa, which have strong bilateral ties with the U.S., only gave their approval more recently.

The current members agreed on the final details of expansion after two days of talks in Johannesburg, although Ramaphosa said the idea had been worked on for over a year.

The BRICS leaders began their talks in Johannesburg on Tuesday night and were locked in discussions most of the day Wednesday, thrashing out the final details. BRICS is a consensus-based organization and all members have to agree on policies.

It's the second time that BRICS has decided to expand. The bloc was formed in 2009 by Brazil, Russia, India and China. South Africa was added in 2010.

In an online message, United Arab Emirates leader Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan welcomed the BRICS announcement and said his nation would be joining an “important group.”

“We look forward to a continued commitment of cooperation for the prosperity, dignity and benefit of all nations and people around the world,” Sheikh Mohammed said on X.

Until recently, the inclusion of Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates together in the same economic or political organization would have been unthinkable, as tensions escalated following the collapse of Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal and a series of attacks attributed to the country since.

But as the coronavirus pandemic receded, the UAE became the first to reengage diplomatically with Iran, following missile attacks on Abu Dhabi claimed by the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen.

In March, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced they had reached a separate détente with Chinese mediation. China has sought closer relations with all three nations, particularly Iran, from which it has imported oil since the collapse of the nuclear deal.

Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE also have maintained relations with Russia amid Moscow’s war on Ukraine, much to the chagrin of Washington, which long has provided security guarantees for the major oil-producing nations.

Egypt President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi said in a statement that his country would cooperate and coordinate with the rest of the members to achieve the bloc’s aims in economic cooperation, and to “raise the voice of the Global South."

The news was also a major boost for Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous country and one of the fastest-growing economies on the continent, as its government works to reengage with many global partners and financial institutions after a devastating two-year conflict in the country’s Tigray region ended last year.

The war caused billions of dollars of damage and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, under pressure from the U.S. and European Union, has turned to other partners like China, Russia and Gulf nations for support.

___

AP writers Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Amir Vahdat in Tehran, Iran, Samy Magdy in Cairo, and Cara Anna in Nairobi, Kenya contributed to this report.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, centre, delivers the XV BRICS summit declaration flanked by from left, President of Brazil Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, President of China Xi Jinping, Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi and Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in Johannesburg, South Africa, Thursday, Aug. 24, 2023. 

(AP Photo/Themba Hadebe)

Members of the media watch Russia's President Vladimir Putin address via videolink the 2023 BRICS Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, Wednesday, Aug. 23, 2023. 

(AP Photo/Jerome Delay)

Russian President Vladimir Putin listens to leaders from the BRICS group of emerging economies at the start of a three-day summit in Johannesburg, South Africa via videoconference from Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, Aug. 23, 2023. Putin appeared on a video link after his travel to South Africa was complicated by an International Criminal Court arrest warrant against him over the war in Ukraine. 

(Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

China's President Xi Jinping claps during the BRICS summit , in Johannesburg, South Africa, Wednesday, Aug. 23, 2023. 

(Alet Pretorius/Pool Photo via AP)

China's President Jinping speaks at the 2023 BRICS Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, Thursday, Aug. 24, 2023. 

(AP Photo/Themba Hadebe)

Putin’s voice in BRICS address raises eyebrows

Brad Dress
Wed, August 23, 2023

As expected, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday addressed an annual business summit of world leaders gathered in South Africa. But this time, the Russian leader delivered his remarks with an altered voice.

Putin appeared via a prerecorded video at a meeting for a grouping of the economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) in Johannesburg, where he discussed the affairs of the business council in an altered, deep voice.

The voice, much lower than Putin’s regular pitch, appears to be a type of generated AI voice changer, but it’s unclear why his voice was changed and how exactly it was altered.

Putin, who appears to be speaking from his office at the Kremlin in Moscow in the video, did not travel to Johannesburg for the summit because he would have risked an arrest.

The Russian leader is facing a global arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC) for the kidnapping of Ukrainian children. South Africa is a part of the ICC and would have been obliged to arrest him.

The 32-second clip with Putin’s distorted voice is from a larger roughly 15-minute video address that was played for the BRICS audience on Tuesday. The short clip appears to be from the beginning of the video.

The recorded video message on the Kremlin’s website retains Putin’s normal voice, but the Russian leader coughs several times in the beginning.

Putin appeared via video link on Wednesday with his regular voice, according to a clip shared by Russian state-run media outlet TASS.

In his Tuesday remarks, Putin discussed Russia’s willingness to return to the Black Sea grain deal with Ukraine if certain conditions are met, a line Moscow has repeated.

The deal, which Russia dropped out of last month, had allowed Ukraine to transport important grain products out of the Black Sea without interference from Russian forces.

Putin has used the major summit in South Africa to accuse the West of starting the war in Ukraine and to shore up support with allies at a time when Russia is increasingly isolated on the international stage. On Wednesday, world leaders agreed to expand the alliance.

The BRICS summit began Tuesday and ends Thursday.

China says African countries want industrialisation over infrastructure

Tue, August 22, 2023 

South Africa hosts BRICS leaders summit

By Carien du Plessis and Tannur Anders

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - African countries want China to shift its focus from building infrastructure on the continent to local industrialisation, China's top Africa diplomat said on Tuesday at a briefing on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in South Africa.

"African integration is already escalating and many African countries (have) asked China to consider (a) shift (of) our focus," Wu Peng, director-general of China's department of African affairs at its foreign ministry, said.

Wu said the change was needed especially considering the Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), which was launched at the start of 2021 and is intended to enable African countries to trade tariff-free in future.

China will talk through its plans for African industrialisation with African leaders on Thursday at a special roundtable on the sidelines of the Aug. 22-24 meeting of the BRICS bloc - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

Between 2000 and 2020, Chinese lenders - mostly state-owned banks - agreed to lend $160 billion to African countries, according to Boston University.

Loan commitments soared after Xi launched the "Belt and Road Initiative" in 2013 to fund infrastructure in developing countries, but then dropped sharply from a peak of $28.4 billion in 2016 to $1.9 billion in 2020.

Wu said the "urgent" discussion of "emergency issues" couldn't wait until the next Forum for China-Africa Cooperation, a regular meeting between Chinese and African ministers due to take place next year.

He also said that investments by Chinese companies in Africa, especially from small and medium-sized companies, would increase.

"No matter what happens about the global economy, or Chinese economy, the trend in the relatively midterm or long range, (is that) Chinese companies are willing to take some risk (to) go into Africa," Wu added.

(Reporting by Carien du Plessis and Tannur Anders; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

The US Coast Guard doesn't check cruise ships for man-overboard technology that's been legally required for over 10 years

LONG READ

Hannah Towey
Thu, August 24, 2023 

Vague language in a 2010 law means cruise ships largely rely on cameras to spot people who've gone overboard, sometimes losing critical seconds in rescue missions.

Trenton Almgren-Davis, Insider; Andy Newman/Carnival Cruise Lines via Getty Images, Martin Diebel/Getty Images; Congress.Gov

An average of 19 people go overboard on cruise ships every year, industry data has found.


Since 2010, cruise ships have been required to install technology to help prevent overboard deaths.


But the US Coast Guard isn't enforcing the requirements or inspecting ships for the technology.

Ronnie Peale Jr., a 35-year-old from a small town in Virginia's Shenandoah Valley, took his first cruise in May 2023 to celebrate his partner's birthday.

On the fifth day of the cruise, Peale went missing.

"By one o'clock I had that gut-wrenching feeling in my stomach," his mother, Linda Peale, told Insider. "He always called me twice a day to check on his dogs."

"He didn't call."

Security footage reviewed by Carnival showed Peale "leaned over the railing of his stateroom balcony and dropped into the water at approximately 4:10 a.m.," a spokesperson for the cruise line said.

At 6:36 p.m. — more than 12 hours after Peale fell overboard — Carnival contacted the Coast Guard, according to the agency. For 60 hours, Coast Guard responders searched 5,171 square miles, an area slightly larger than the state of Connecticut, but did not find his body.

Peale is presumed dead, according to a letter sent to his mother by the Coast Guard, a copy of which was viewed by Insider.

"His 9 tomato plants have ripened in the garden. I will make sauce for the family. His plans for a rebuild the sink for our farmhouse will stay in boxes in the garage," Linda Peale wrote of her son, pictured here as a teenager holding his nephew. Courtesy of Linda Peale

While man-overboard incidents are rare, they are a leading cause of death for passengers on cruise ships, according to research conducted by Travis Heggie, a professor at Bowling Green State University who specializes in health and safety risks in the tourism industry.

On average, 19 people go overboard on cruise ships every year — of those, about four people are successfully rescued, a 2020 study commissioned by the industry trade group Cruise Lines International Association found.

Less than two months after Peale fell overboard, 30-year-old Jaylen Hill also went overboard a Carnival cruise ship. Hill was last seen at 8 a.m. on Sunday, July 23. The cruise line alerted the Coast Guard at 6:30 p.m. that night, Eric Rodriguez, a petty officer third class, told Insider at the time.

In the past month, two more cruise passengers have gone overboard, from Royal Caribbean's Spectrum of the Seas and Princess Cruises' Emerald Princess. None of the passengers were found.

Search patterns show the 5,171 square miles Coast Guard responders searched for Ronnie Peale Jr., who fell overboard 186 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida.

U.S. Coast Guard illustration by Joe Perez

Locating a missing person among the sprawling labyrinth of bars, restaurants, entertainment venues, pools, and staterooms that make up these floating cities can be frustrating and time-consuming, especially considering the complications of texting and calling at sea.

Even if someone survives the steep fall and avoids the ship's massive propeller or swirling wake, hypothermia can set in within minutes. Unmonitored security footage and inconsistent safety protocols make the chances of survival even more slim.

Experts say the large gaps of time between a person going overboard and the initiation of rescue missions are one of the main reasons why man overboard incidents are so deadly. The longer someone is alone in the open ocean, the lower the chance of recovery, Ross Klein, a cruise industry researcher who has served as an expert witness before Congress, told The Washington Post earlier this year.

"Overboard situations are obviously upsetting events for many — and although they are rare, with the likelihood of an incident at less than 0.000001% — we take our responsibility to provide a safe environment for guests and crew very seriously," a spokesperson for Carnival Corporation said, adding that "it is virtually impossible to fall off a cruise ship without a purposeful action to climb up and over safety rails," which must be at least 42 inches high.

Legislation without regulation

The US Coast Guard does not check for man-overboard image capture or detection technology during compliance inspections of cruise ships.

(Photo by Paul McConnell/U.S. Coast Guard via Getty Images

To help prevent overboard fatalities, Congress in 2010 required cruise ships to integrate technology "that can be used for capturing images of passengers or detecting passengers who have fallen overboard, to the extent that such technology is available," as part of the Cruise Vessel Security and Safety Act, or CVSSA.

The Coast Guard interprets the statute to mean cruise ships have the option to choose between image-capture systems — like CCTV security cameras — or detection systems, which use technology like thermal cameras and radar to alert crew of someone falling overboard in real time, a spokesperson for the agency told Insider. This gives cruise companies the flexibility to decide which type of technology they use.

But the law's vague language opens it up to a second interpretation, which some experts say was the original intent of Congress: that cruise ships are allowed to use image capture technology like CCTV cameras to fulfill the CVSSA until reliable man overboard detection technology becomes available.

But the Coast Guard, the agency tasked with ensuring cruise ships comply with the law, does not enforce either requirement because the rulemaking process it first began eight years ago is not yet finished, a Coast Guard spokesperson told Insider. That means for the 10-plus years the CVSSA has been law, the Coast Guard hasn't inspected cruise ships for any MOB technology, cameras or otherwise, the spokesperson confirmed.

Nor does the agency regulate or set standards for the technology cruise ships should use to detect passengers who have fallen overboard, the spokesperson said. However, the Coast Guard does examine cruise ships to ensure they "have adequate procedures in place to recover a man overboard in a satisfactory manner," they added.

"I think many of us don't realize that about any law," Jamie Barnett, the president of the International Cruise Victims Association, told Insider. "It doesn't just get passed and then happen — it takes oversight. It takes people paying attention to make sure that it happens."
Most cruise ships rely on security cameras to spot people who've gone overboard

All Cruise Line International Association members comply with the requirements in the CVSSA, with most ships opting for technology that is capable of capturing images of people falling overboard, a CLIA spokesperson told Insider.

But victims' advocates say security cameras on their own aren't an effective way to prevent man-overboard fatalities because they are not constantly monitored. And since cameras don't always capture every area of the ship, sometimes there's no footage at all.

After 29-year-old James Michael Grimes went overboard a Carnival cruise ship in November 2022, his stepsister was informed by a security officer that they had footage of Grimes leaving the bar, but not of him going overboard, she told USA Today. A Carnival spokesperson told the outlet at the time that cameras "may not have 100% visibility" on some areas of its ships.

When a Royal Caribbean crew member went overboard the Vision of the Seas in 2017, a Bahamian marine safety investigation determined a "clear view of crewmember jumping overboard was not detected as the area was not covered by CCTV (blind area)."

In a statement shared with Insider, CLIA emphasized that safety and security are a top priority for the industry.

"All cruise lines use a variety of measures to maintain a safe environment on board cruise ships, including physical barriers around the periphery of external decks and balconies, video surveillance systems in public areas, and trained crew members who can respond quickly to an unsafe situation or emergency," the spokesperson said.

Automatic detection systems are still being tested to meet international standards

In order for a man-overboard detection system to comply with the ISO, it must have a 95% detection success rate and trigger no more than one false alarm per day. Tests are performed using dummies like the one pictured here. 

Courtesy of MARSS

The cruise industry, which says it's been testing man-overboard, or MOB, detection systems since as early as 2006, says that technology that senses someone going overboard and alerts crew members in real time is not yet reliable in marine environments nor widely commercially available.

In 2017, the Coast Guard said three providers had demonstrated "initial feasibility," but it recommended waiting to pass further regulations until an international standard was developed so as to not "add burden to industry and business processes."

Since then, the International Standardization Organization has developed technical requirements for systems to detect a person who has gone overboard from a ship. The standards, created with input from the Coast Guard and cruise industry, were published in 2020, but a Coast Guard spokesperson said it's not aware of any products that currently meet them.

Marss, a global-technology company, said it has created a product, called MOBtronic, that is on track to meet international standards by the beginning of 2024. The system completed 120 tests with a 100% success rate, the company said, and would cost about $500,000 per ship to install.

Mike Collier, a program lead for MOBtronic, said the technology is already installed on one major cruise line's entire fleet, though he declined to specify which.

CLIA said once certified detection systems are available, it may take several years to see a significant uptake in the new technology due to limited shipyard and product availability.

A spokesperson for Carnival Corporation said that "despite the claims by manufacturers and their salespeople, these systems are still unreliable, as was the case when our company piloted some of the proposed technologies." MOB-detection technology does not prevent someone from climbing over the safety rails or jumping off, Carnival added.
After eight years of regulatory limbo, Congress wants answers from the Coast Guard

MOBtronic has passed phase 1 and phase 2 testing required to meet the ISO standard and expects to complete the final phase by the beginning of 2024. 

Courtesy of MARSS

After eight years of regulatory limbo, lawmakers want to know when the Coast Guard will enforce the man overboard technology requirements of the CVSSA and if it will require detection systems on every ship.

In May, four members of Congress, including Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, sent a letter to the Coast Guard requesting information about the current use of man-overboard technology on cruise ships.

In response, the Coast Guard said it began the rulemaking process that would allow the agency to enforce the requirements back in 2015, but the rule was never finalized because of public comments that "questioned whether man-overboard detection technology was sufficiently reliable or available."

Collier, who was Carnival Corporation's man-overboard-detection expert prior to his role at MOBtronic, said the lack of concrete regulation from the Coast Guard is the reason cruise lines haven't fully committed to installing the technology.

"While there remains no clarity from the regulators, cruise lines will revert to making investment decisions based primarily on revenue generation," he said.

A Coast Guard spokesperson said there are no regulations preventing cruise lines from installing MOB detection systems on their vessels.

The Coast Guard is scheduled to introduce a revised version of the 2015 proposed rule in June 2024, which would clarify definitions, update existing regulations, and create performance standards for implementing the CVSSA.

"The Coast Guard is considering the best approach to address this issue as quickly as practicable," a spokesperson said.

Meanwhile, Blumenthal has introduced new legislation that he said would ease some of the original act's opacity by requiring cruise ships to install technology that can both capture images of and detect a passenger going overboard, a change CLIA said would be "pre-mature."

"Congress intended the Coast Guard to have — and use — the power to safeguard passengers more effectively by requiring technology that detects people going overboard in real time," he said in a statement shared with Insider. "Legislation would make this authority absolutely clear — and make Coast Guard regulations immune from any future attempts to weaken them."

Loved ones navigate the murky waters of a death at sea

"He trekked the mountain behind our house. The land was his comfort zone, fishing, hiking, climbing trees, racing with his dogs Mylo and Rocky," Linda Peale wrote of her son. Courtesy of Linda Peale

Jennilyn Blosser, Peale's partner, said the most frustrating part about the process was how long it took for Carnival to locate the video footage and confirm that Peale had fallen overboard.

Blosser said her family told customer service around 2 p.m. on Monday, May 29, that they were unable to locate Peale. The employee then checked the group's bar tab and said Peale had recently ordered a drink on deck 10, she said, which led the family to believe he was still on the ship. Blosser said she later found out her cousin ordered the drink, not Peale.

Around 5 p.m., Blosser said she reported Peale missing to customer service a second time after he didn't show up to dinner. Carnival then conducted an onboard search and announced his name over the ship's loudspeaker, she said. The cruise line contacted the Coast Guard at 6:36 p.m.

"I just don't know why it took so long for them to be able to figure it out," she told Insider.

A Carnival spokesperson said the company's internal investigation "gives a different set of facts and sequence of events," but declined to give details citing "respect for his family."

Finding answers didn't get any easier after the Coast Guard suspended its search for Peale, his mother said, adding that the cruise line agreed to show her and her husband the ship's security footage of their son after she hired a lawyer.

When she emailed the Coast Guard questions about the details of the incident, such as what time Carnival viewed the security footage and the condition of the water when Peale fell, a Coast Guard attorney said the only way he could share the requested information was if she submitted a Freedom of Information Act request, according to emails viewed by Insider.

Filing a claim against a cruise line is one of the only ways for family members to obtain information about overboard incidents, Barnett of the ICVA said, adding that some lawyers won't take cases involving cruise ship fatalities because the complexities of maritime law make successful outcomes so rare.

For example, if a cruise passenger dies beyond three nautical miles of US, legal action and compensation is limited by the Death on the High Seas Act, or DOHSA, a federal law enacted in 1920 that allows only financially dependent relatives of the deceased to file a wrongful-death claim for monetary losses. DOHSA does not allow survivors to recover damages for pain and suffering or mental anguish, unlike other wrongful-death cases.

As for the Coast Guard's search-and-rescue missions for cruise passengers who go overboard, American taxpayers are the ones footing the bill, not cruise lines.

"There's no financial consequence when someone goes overboard to the cruise line," Jim Walker, a maritime lawyer who specializes in the cruise industry, told Insider. "So there's not really an incentive that forces them to install the system."

Gen Z’s Declining College Interest Persists — Even Among Middle Schoolers

Joshua Bay

THE 74
Thu, August 24, 2023 




Consumed with pandemic-era grief, Gen Z’s apathy towards attending college has grown — even influencing students as young as middle schoolers.

A new YPulse report found two in five Gen Z students agreed with the statement: “The pandemic has made me less interested in pursuing higher education.”

Middle school students, generally 11 to 13 years old, not only contribute to the trend but also lead the view that work experience is more valuable.

That attitude has translated into an 8% decline in college enrollment from 2019 to 2022, showing how attending college is no longer a given for Gen Z.

“Seeing the way many Millennials are saddled with insurmountable debt from the higher ed system, and knowing from their online lives that other paths are possible, these high school and even middle school students are reconsidering if they even need college to be successful,” YPulse wrote in the report.

Gen Z advocates Brian Femminella, co-founder and chief executive officer of SoundMind, Bella Santos, community leadership board president of The Conversationalist, and Ian Gates, policy and program quality fellow of The Opportunity Project Tulsa talked about key takeaways from the report:

From left to right, Brian Femminella, 23, Bella Santos, 20, and Ian Gates, 22.
1. The vast majority of Gen Z middle school students say they don’t see a future pursuing college.

YPulse found 80% of Gen Z middle school students and 85% of high school students plan to go to college compared to 100% pre-pandemic.

YPulse

Gates, 22, said pandemic-era online learning showed younger Gen Z students how monotonous taking classes can be — whether they’re in middle school, high school, community college or a four-year institution.

“[Gen Z] is thinking about different options now,” Gates told The 74. “A lot of us are thinking about non-college careers…like being a Youtuber, influencer and other alternate paths like that.”

Femminella, 23, said his own college education didn’t necessarily help him start his mental health company.

“When I see how a lot of younger kids would rather do something else, I applaud that,” Femminella told The 74. “We need more folks that want to do different things and shouldn’t fall into the stigma of college being a must.”

Related: Gen Z Entrepreneurs Tackle Youth Mental Health Crisis With Music Therapy
2. Gen Z students are more likely to find Google and YouTube more helpful than a teacher.

YPulse found Gen Z students were more likely to choose Google and YouTube over a teacher when asked: “If you wanted to learn something new, what resources would you use?”

Santos, 20, wasn’t shocked.

“There is often not a ton of oversight when it comes to how choosy schools are with who gets to teach — especially in public schools,” Santos told The 74. “Teachers and the system in which they teach aren’t always suited for success to begin with.”

Gates said disparaging parent attitudes towards teachers and school curriculum also had an effect on how Gen Z grows up to question the value of a college education.

“With the parental rights movement, certainly when you’re telling your kid ‘hey your teachers are trying to indoctrinate you and make you communist and make you gay’ it obviously gets to them,” Gates said.

Gates added how states such as Florida, which have banned AP Psychology and AP African American Studies, contribute to Gen Z’s disinterest in pursuing higher education by not exposing them to diverse courses.
3. Gen Z college students struggle to stay interested in their classes and believe they don’t teach practical skills.

YPulse found 55% of current Gen Z undergraduate students and 38% of Gen Z graduate students found their classes not relevant to their lives — in part because college doesn’t teach practical skills such as mental health skills, cooking and personal finance.

“Learning should be an enriching experience no matter what your interests are,” Santos said. “Yet school systems are often set up to just drill information into people’s brains.”

Femminella said mental health concerns should be the foundation on which professors shape their curriculum.

“There are some moments when students in college need to have a mental health day because they’re overworked,” Femminella said. “There’s not a lot of outlets and resources until it’s too late…and you’re really in the midst of a mental health crisis when there’s ways to avoid that.”

Femminella also said colleges should require personal finance and cooking courses.

“A lot of colleges forget that when Gen Z students close their computer, they’re a human and have to go do other human things like pay bills, cook and clean,” Femminella said. “I think it’s something that should just be incorporated into the entire university structure.”
4. Gen Z students wish they learned about alternative career paths growing up.

YPulse found that 74% of Gen Z students wish they learned more about alternative career paths compared to a traditional college education.


YPulse

Santos said the social stigma of not attending college is declining among Gen Z students.

“I don’t think it’s for everyone, I don’t think it’s necessary, so it makes sense that other people in my generation see that,” Santos said.

Gates added how this is especially true for students who come from immigrant families and used to feel “the pressure that college is just what’s next.”

“Gen Z knows people are graduating college with all these loans,” Gates said. “They’re taking that into account, especially those from lower income families, and asking themselves if college is really worth it.”

Related: What Gen Z Teens Are Asking About Education, Work and Their Future
5. Gen Z students believe work experience is more important than a college education.

YPulse found that 57% of Gen Z middle school students and 49% of Gen Z high school students believe work experience is more important than a college education.


YPulse

Femminella said work experience has been the most helpful tool to his success.

“When you’re in your field and you get to practice, you also get to fail,” Femminella said. “And by failing you learn the most, and that’s been invaluable to starting my company.”

Nearly half of Gen Zers think they won’t ‘get a dime’ in Social Security: survey

Aris Folley
Tue, August 22, 2023 

Almost half of Generation Z adults said they don’t expect to get any of the Social Security benefits they’ve earned, according to a survey.

In a survey released Tuesday by the Nationwide Retirement Institute, 45 percent of Gen Z adults between the ages of 18 to 26 said they expect to not “get a dime” of the benefits they have earned.

Additionally, 39 percent of millennials said the same, compared to 25 percent of Gen X adults and 10 percent of baby boomers who agreed.

More older Americans also expressed concern that Social Security could run out of funding in their lifetimes, with 75 percent of respondents aged 50 and older sharing that concern in the survey, up 9 percent from roughly a decade ago.

The fate of Social Security drew significant attention around Capitol Hill earlier this year as Republicans and Democrats warred over how to tackle the nation’s climbing debt, which stands at more than $32 trillion.

As one of the country’s largest mandatory spending programs, dollars for Social Security comprise a significant portion of the nation’s annual spending.

The program is expected to approach insolvency in roughly a decade, so lawmakers on both sides have floated potential changes to extend the lifetime of the program.

In the new survey, less than a fourth of respondents backed increasing funding through payroll taxes. Instead, 49 percent of respondents pushed for tax increases on higher earners to pay for the program.

Forty-one percent also said they supported increasing funding through taxes paid by employers, compared to 40 percent who also pushed for less taxation and 24 percent who wanted to see the age of eligibility lowered.

The survey found less support among respondents when it came to some changes tightening eligibility, with only 19 percent saying they support raising the full retirement age, while just 9 percent backed a gradual reduction of benefits that would most affect younger generations.

Only 6 percent of respondents support reducing benefits across the board.

Gen Z, millennial, and Gen X respondents were more likely than boomers and older respondents in the survey to say they have or “will have retirement accounts and savings as additional sources of retirement income beyond Social Security benefits.”

They were also more likely to say they plan to delay or have delayed retirement in case a quarter of their monthly benefit is cut during retirement.

The 2023 Social Security survey was conducted online between May 18 and June 13 among 1,806 adults age 18 and older who receive or expect to receive Social Security. That includes 300 Gen Z respondents, 500 millennials and 502 boomers or those age 59 and older.

The sample data is accurate to “within plus 3.0 percentage points using a 95 percent confidence level,” the survey notes.

'A bigot and a racist': Democrat pushes to strip lawmaker's name from Senate building

Elizabeth Elkind

FAUX NEWS
Tue, August 22, 2023 

A House Democrat is pushing the Senate to rename an office building that memorializes a "bigot and a racist."

Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, introduced a resolution on Friday calling on Congress' upper chamber to wipe the name of the late Sen. Richard Russell off the Russell Senate Office Building. The Georgia Democrat was a staunch opponent of de-segregation and the Civil Rights Movement during his nearly four decades in the Senate.

"I marvel at how we have arrived in the year 2023, and we have a building on this campus, named after a person who was a White supremacist, a person who fought against anti-lynching laws, a person who fought integration, a person who was a segregationist," Green fumed on the House floor in late July. "And we, people of color, tolerate it."


Sen. Richard B. Russell served in the chamber for nearly 40 years and is known for his opposition to de-segregation

Senate buildings and rooms are normally named and re-named via a chamber resolution. Green spoke out just before lawmakers departed Washington, D.C., for their six-week August recess.

"Taxpayer dollars ought not be on the name of a building that would honor a bigot and a racist, Richard Russell," Green said.

He pointed to the Defense Department actively working to remove Confederate symbols from the military and said the Senate "ought to be ashamed" of its inaction.

FAUX NEWS EDITOR POSTS RACIST TRIGGER BAIT PHOTO OF REP. GREEN

Rep. Al Green introduced a resolution urging the Senate to strip Russell's name from one of its three office buildings. (Getty Images)

"This is why the Senate will not remove the name that is offensive to me and many of my friends and relatives – they can't agree on a name. Well, I have the solution. Let it revert to the name that it had before it became Richard Russell. Let it revert to the old Senate office building. And then choose any name you want. Take as much time as you need," Green said.

It’s not the first time Green or other lawmakers have introduced a resolution to wipe Russell’s name from the halls of the U.S. Capitol complex, but all efforts have thus far failed.

Then-Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., proposed renaming the building after late Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in 2018 shortly after his death from brain cancer at age 81. Some GOP senators from the South pushed back on the idea at the time.

SAINT CHUCK

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's office was unresponsive when asked if he would mount a push to rename the Russell building.

But Schumer revived the effort a year later, when former President Donald Trump’s attacks on the late McCain were dominating media headlines.

Schumer’s office did not respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment on whether he would introduce a renaming resolution now, while he controls Senate floor movement as majority leader.

His office also did not return a request for comment on Green’s latest resolution.