Saturday, October 14, 2023

A comprehensive blueprint for the settlement of Mars

Throughout the 20th century, multiple proposals have been made for the crewed exploration of Mars. These include the famed "Mars Project" by Werner von Braun, the "Mars Direct" mission architecture by Robert Zubrin and David Baker, NASA's Mars Design Reference Mission studies, and SpaceX's Mars & Beyond plan. By 2033, two space agencies (NASA and the CNSA) plan to commence sending crews and payloads to the Red Planet. These and other space agencies envision building bases there that could eventually lead to permanent settlements and the first "Martians."

This presents several major challenges, not the least of which have to do with exposure to radiation, extreme temperatures, dust storms, low atmospheric pressure, and lower gravity. However, with the right strategies and technology, these challenges could be turned into opportunities for growth and innovation. In a recent paper, a Leiden University researcher offers a roadmap for a Martian settlement that leverages recent advancements in technology and offers solutions that emphasize sustainability, efficiency, and the well-being of the settlers.

The proposal comes from Florian Neukart, an Assistant Professor with the Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science (LIACS) at Leiden University and a Board Member of the Swiss quantum technology developer Terra Quantum AG. The preprint of his paper, "Towards Sustainable Horizons: A Comprehensive Blueprint for Mars Colonization," was recently posted to the arXiv preprint server and is currently being reviewed for publication by Elsevier.

Evolution of a plan

Beyond exploration, many proposals have been made since the dawn of the Space Age to transform Mars into a second home for humanity. Some of these proposals have involved geological engineering (aka "terraforming") to make Mars habitable for terrestrial organisms. What's more, the history of proposals has reflected the history of exploration and our growing understanding of the Red Planet. Other factors include technological advancement, scientific discoveries, and socio-economic and political developments. As Nuekart explained via email, the earliest ideas were largely embodied in science fiction.

Examples include H.G. Wells' War of the Worlds, Edgar Rice Burroughs' Barsoon Series, Ray Bradbury's The Martian Chronicles, Arthur C. Clarke's The Sands of Mars, and Robert A. Heinlein's Red Planet and Stranger in a Strange Land. These books depicted Mars with limited scientific accuracy and reflected popular perceptions about Mars at the time. This included Schiaperelli's maps (that included Martian "canals") and Percival Lowell's speculations about a Martian civilization. They were also influenced by political events on Earth, which contributed to feelings of xenophobia, the decline of civilization, and environmental concerns.

However, things began to change with the dawn of the Space Age, where robotic exploration dispelled old myths and led to major discoveries about Mars's past and present. As Nuekart explained:

"The latter part of the 20th century and early 21st century marked the deployment of various robotic missions to Mars, such as the Viking program, rovers like Spirit, Opportunity, and Curiosity, and orbiters like Mars Odyssey. These missions provided invaluable Martian geology, climate, and potential habitability data. Post-2000, discussions about Mars have increasingly leaned towards human exploration and settlement.

"The strategies entailed harnessing in-situ resources, understanding potential health implications for astronauts, and developing the necessary technologies to support human life on Mars. The recent era has also seen the burgeoning involvement of private entities, such as SpaceX, in Martian settlement plans. Elon Musk's vision of making humanity a multi-planetary species, with particular emphasis on establishing a city on Mars, has introduced new perspectives and significant investment in Mars-related technologies."

Today, more space agencies are contributing to the exploration of Mars than ever before. Whereas the 20th century saw only NASA and the Soviet Union send missions to the Red Planet, the past two decades have seen new missions sent by the European Union, China, India, and the United Arab Emirates. This has contributed to a growing recognition that Martian settlement will likely be an international endeavor based on partnerships and cooperation rather than competition. And as Nuekert adds, our growing sense of climate awareness has had a noticeable effect on planning:

"Recent plans have emphasized sustainability more, ensuring that Martian settlements are self-sufficient and have minimal reliance on resupply from Earth. This includes considering closed-loop life support systems, in-situ resource utilization, and psychological sustainability for inhabitants. Martian settlement plans have evolved through these stages from speculative and primarily science-fiction-based ideas to more concrete, scientifically informed, and technologically feasible concepts rooted in actual data and evolving technological capabilities. As we progress, plans continue to become more refined, pragmatic, and inclusive of various scientific, social, and ethical considerations."

The challenges

To break it down, the challenges of creating a human settlement on Mars include the vast distances between our two planets, which means resupply missions would be infrequent, and communications would suffer latency issues. Launch windows would be restricted to every 26 months, coinciding with Mars and Earth being closest to each other (Mars Opposition), and transits would take up to nine months. Beyond that, there are the human factors, which (as Neukart indicated) are myriad:

Physiological Adaptation to the Martian Environment:

Radiation Exposure: The Martian surface is exposed to higher radiation levels than Earth. Prolonged exposure poses severe health risks, including increased cancer susceptibility.
Microgravity Effects: The reduced gravity on Mars (about 38% of Earth's gravity) can profoundly impact astronaut musculoskeletal and cardiovascular systems.

Psychological and Emotional Well-being:

Isolation and Confinement: The protracted isolation and confinement during Martian missions can have psychological implications, potentially impacting the crew's mental health and group dynamics.
Communication Delays: The significant communication lag between Mars and Earth (ranging from four to 24 minutes one way) requires the crew to operate with a high degree of autonomy, which might impact decision-making and stress levels.

Social and Interpersonal Dynamics:

Team Cohesion: Ensuring stable and supportive interpersonal relationships among the crew is paramount for maintaining morale and effective collaboration.
Conflict Resolution: Establishing mechanisms to manage and resolve conflicts within the crew becomes vital in the confined and isolated environment.

Human Performance and Workload Management:

Task Design and Workload: Ensuring that task designs are cognizant of the physical and psychological strains of the Martian environment and manage crew workload to prevent fatigue and burnout.
Skill Maintenance: Devising strategies to maintain and enhance the diverse skill sets required during the mission, especially given the autonomy necessitated by communication delays.

Habitat Design and Usability:

Ergonomic and Human-centered Design: Crafting habitats and tools that are ergonomic and conducive to the physical and psychological well-being of the astronauts.
Private and Community Spaces: Balancing the design to provide private spaces for individual respite and community spaces to foster social interaction.

Health and Medical Management:

Medical Preparedness: Ensuring the crew has the necessary training and resources to address medical emergencies, given the limited possibility of evacuation or immediate external support.
Health Monitoring: Continual health monitoring to preemptively address any medical or health-related issues.

Cultural and Ethical Considerations:

Diverse Crew Composition: Navigating through the cultural and individual diversities within the crew and ensuring an inclusive and respectful environment.
Ethical Decision-making: Establishing frameworks for ethical decision-making, especially in scenarios of resource scarcity or medical emergencies.

What can we do?

Addressing the challenges of sending humans to Mars and establishing an outpost of our civilization has historically led to some interesting proposed solutions. Things have also evolved historically here, mirroring our growing awareness of the Martian climate and environment, but much of the impetus has remained the same. "Ensuring the feasibility and sustainability of establishing a human presence on Mars necessitates a multi-disciplinary approach that synergistically combines advancements across various scientific and engineering domains," said Neukart. "Innovations must cater to the harsh Martian environment in the technological domain and facilitate human survival and productivity."

Since the 1990s, proposals have emphasized the need for In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) to minimize the amount of supplies and building materials transported from Earth. Considerable research has also been dedicated toward creating closed-loop systems that maximize resource utilization, minimize waste, and are self-sufficient. To this end, researchers are looking to bioregenerative life support systems (BLSS) inspired by nature—i.e., they rely on organic components, such as algae, microbes, or artificial photosynthesis. Said Nuekert:

"Achieving this involves refining technologies that enable effective recycling and reuse of resources within the habitat and minimizing dependency on supplies from Earth. From a broader perspective, a thorough risk-management framework that anticipates potential crises and provides robust mitigation and adaptation strategies is vital. This includes developing technologies and protocols to manage unforeseen challenges, whether they be technical malfunctions, medical emergencies, or resource shortages."

Naturally, several technical developments need to happen before these challenges can be addressed. As to what those are, Nuekart emphasized the following:

Robust Technology Development:

Life Support Systems: Perfecting closed-loop life support systems that can reliably sustain human life through resource recycling and regeneration.
Habitat Technology: Developing durable habitats that protect inhabitants from radiation, maintain pressure integrity, and ensure overall livability.

Advanced Space Travel:

Transportation: Enhancing spacecraft technology for more efficient, safe, and feasible transportation between Earth and Mars, such as through the MFPD we discussed below.
Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL): Achieving reliable and precise EDL systems for safely landing payloads and humans on the Martian surface.

In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU):

Resource Extraction and Utilization: Establishing viable technologies and methodologies for extracting and utilizing Martian resources (e.g., water-ice).
Energy Production: Ensuring sustainable and reliable energy production on Mars, potentially harnessing solar and nuclear power.

Astronaut Health and Safety:

Countermeasures: Developing effective countermeasures against the detrimental effects of microgravity and radiation exposure on human health.
Medical Facilities: Establishing comprehensive medical facilities and protocols to manage health contingencies.

Scientific Exploration and Understanding:

Geological Studies: Conducting thorough geological studies to understand Mars' terrain, subsurface, and potential resources.
Search for Life: Further exploration to understand the Martian environment, mainly focusing on life's potential existence or historical presence.

Psychosocial Preparations:

Crew Selection and Training: Establishing robust selection, training, and support frameworks for astronaut crews to manage psychological and social dynamics.
Mission Simulations: Conducting extensive mission simulations to understand and prepare for various mission scenarios and challenges.

Logistical Planning:

Supply Chains: Establishing reliable supply chains, ensuring the consistent availability of essential resources and spare components.
Communication Systems: Developing robust communication systems to facilitate effective communication with Earth despite the substantial delay.

Global Collaboration:

International Partnerships: Fostering international collaborations to pool resources, expertise, and share responsibilities and benefits.
Knowledge Sharing: Enabling a global knowledge-sharing framework to enhance collective understanding and technology development.

Societal and Cultural Aspects:

Public Engagement: Engaging with the global community to establish a collective vision and gain public support for Martian settlements.
Cultural Preservation: Considering how to preserve and convey Earth's cultural and biological heritage on Martian settlements.

Is it worth it?

This question is fundamental to any major undertaking and must be asked before (and after) all the challenges are considered and addressed. Much like proposals for exploring and establishing permanent infrastructure on Mars, numerous reasons have been given as to why the risks are acceptable and the endeavor a worthy one. As Nuekart addresses in his paper, these range from the need to ensure our survival to the scientific breakthroughs it will enable. Nevertheless, the process of permanently settling on Mars is fraught with challenges and hazards.

But as proponents of Martian settlement will argue, these same hazards represent an opportunity for innovation, development, and our growth as a species and civilization.

"The potential settlement on Mars holds numerous benefits that warrant undertaking the assorted risks and challenges. These benefits, among others, help elucidate why the pursuit of Mars settlement, despite the inherent risks and challenges, garners interest and investment from governmental and private entities globally. The endeavor is not just about establishing a human presence on another planet, but I also see the advancements, knowledge, and collaborative efforts that the journey there facilitates," said Neukart.

More information: Florian Neukart, Towards Sustainable Horizons: A Comprehensive Blueprint for Mars Colonization, arXiv (2023). DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2309.16806

Journal information: arXiv

Provided by Universe Today NASA locks four crew members into a one-year mission in a simulated Mars habitat

Second report on the status of global water resources published

by Universitaet Mainz

Earth — Clouds over Australia are shown. Credit: NASA

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently presented its second report on the status of global water resources. According to this report, large parts of the world experienced drier conditions in 2022 than those recorded on average for the equivalent periods over the last 30 years.

"Nearly 40% of the territories examined were suffering from drier than normal conditions," said Professor Robert Reinecke of Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU).

"This means that the flow rate of many rivers worldwide was significantly below what would normally be expected. Added to this, the levels of moisture in the soil were frequently indicative of the effects of the heat waves we have experienced while the need for greater use of water has resulted in the groundwater table becoming lower than in the reference period."

Reinecke, who joined the JGU Institute of Geography in May 2023, has made a major contribution to the new WMO report—in collaboration with Dr. Hannes Müller Schmied of Goethe University Frankfurt and the Senckenberg Leibniz Biodiversity and Climate Research Center Frankfurt (SBiK-F) as well as the Global Runoff Database Center (GRDC) in Koblenz.

Together they supplied simulation data based on hydrological modeling, participated in the development of the corresponding methodology, and provided scientific validation of the report's key statements. With the WMO acting as coordinating body, the report results from the expertise provided by 11 international modeling groups.

Scientifically validated findings on the global water situation

The first State of Global Water Resources Report for 2021 was presented in late November 2022 at the WMO headquarters in Geneva. The report is to appear annually and provide an overview of the status of the Earth's water resources.

The effects of climatic fluctuations and changes can often also be seen by what happens to our water: Heat waves coupled with droughts can make wildfires more likely and these can then spread more rapidly due to the lack of soil moisture, to give only one example.

"The WMO report is thus also designed to provide politicians and the industry with knowledge so as to identify regions that are at risk of experiencing water emergencies or are already in crisis," added Reinecke.

Among the data shown in the 2022 report is information on the discharge rate of rivers, the levels of groundwater, soil moisture, and evaporation. However, generation of the data basis itself is problematic in that there are currently insufficient global statistics available.

"Thus, we need to undertake simulation modeling," explained Reinecke, a specialist in modeling techniques. There is a particular lack of data on the situation regarding groundwater. Even Germany cannot provide complete figures as to the related circumstances. However, there is no doubt that the dry conditions in 2022 had considerable impact in Germany, too.

Just as in the case of the River Po in Italy, the water levels of the Rhine fell dramatically over longer periods, with the associated consequences for river traffic. France suffered from insufficient precipitation, resulting in difficulties when it came to providing the cooling required by nuclear power plants. South America experienced severe drought conditions while, despite increasing precipitation, groundwater levels in the important Murray-Darling Basin in Australia continued to drop below normal.

Provided by Universitaet Mainz Measuring the extent of global droughts in unprecedented detail

Scroll depicting rat wedding banquet provides important insight about cooking in medieval Japan

by Jon Niccum, University of Kansas

Rats in the kitchen. Typically that implies issues with cleanliness and safety. But in medieval Japan, having rats in the kitchen could suggest an entirely different meaning.

Such is the case with "The Illustrated Rat's Tale" (Nezumi no sōshi emaki), an anonymous Japanese picture scroll created between 1550 and 1650 that depicts a rat wedding banquet.

"There were quite a few stories written in medieval and early modern Japan about rats, and many of these became picture scrolls combining illustrations with text," said Eric Rath, professor of history at the University of Kansas. "But what sets this example apart are the detailed scenes of cooking. There is only one other picture scroll that depicts cooking scenes for this period, so as a food historian, I wanted to see what I could learn from this rat story."

The result is his article "What Rats Reveal about Cooking in Late Medieval Japan." It examines how this artwork supplies an important source for understanding the staff and procedures for food preparation during this era and how the gendered and status-conscious division of labor reflected how food played a powerful role in the representation of authority. It appears as the cover story for the fall 2023 edition of Gastronomica: The Journal of Food and Culture.

The creators of "The Illustrated Rat's Tale" show the rodents taking on human roles, so the scroll can also be read as a representation of Japanese society.

"In other words, the way the artists depicted rats preparing for a banquet offers insights into the division of labor and workflow of kitchens in elite households in the 16th century, an age with very few other visual sources. We learn that specially trained male (rat) chefs handled prestigious tasks like carving meats and female workers performed manual labor such as milling the rice outside," Rath said.

The professor first learned there was a copy of this scroll in the New York Public Library. He then secured a grant from the Culinary Historians of New York that allowed him to study the item in person.

In addition to general commentaries on class and society, the scroll makes some specific ones as well.

"One of the leading cultural influencers of the late 1500s was the tea master Sen no Rikyu, whom many claimed invented Japan's traditions of the tea ceremony. He makes a cameo appearance as a rat in the picture scroll. Also it seems that rats were big fans of sake drinking as much as humans," Rath said.

There's no specific connection between rats and cooking in modern Japan, he said.

"No one likes to see a rat in the kitchen today, and the same was true in medieval Japan. Rats are consumers of food, and many of the stories about them are about their appetites. In the picture scroll I studied, some of the rat characters had names like Tobei the Bean-lover, Bad Taro the Glutton and Kuranojo the Rice-Chewer," Rath said.

However, "The Illustrated Rat's Tale" turns the idea of rats as consumers on its head by making them into producers because it is the story of a rat lord who wants to marry a human being. Thus he needs a fancy wedding banquet in the style of a shogun.

Rath said, "The wedding required an enormous and complex feast with specialty rat chefs, the medieval Japanese equivalent of the rat in the film "Ratatouille.'"

A 22-year veteran of KU, Rath teaches a course on the history of sushi. His book "Oishii: The History of Sushi" (Reaktion Books/University of Chicago Press, 2021) offers the first comprehensive chronicle of sushi written in English. His previous article for Gastronomica titled "Sake Journal (Goshu no nikki): Japan's Oldest Guide to Brewing" provides the first English translation of the earliest Japanese manual for brewing sake.

As for rats, this is the first time Rath has written about them. But he has enjoyed their company at home.

"My daughter received two 'male' rats from her fifth grade teacher, and we learned one of them was actually female, so we had a family of pet rats soon led by Mama-Razzi and Papa-Razzi. They proved to be good pets," he said.

Besides the insights the scroll imparts regarding foodways in late medieval Japan, Rath's article shows the interdisciplinary nature of food history.

He said, "It's a discipline where scholars like me frequently poach ideas from other fields and use a range of sources in writing about the past."

More information: Eric C. Rath, What Rats Reveal about Cooking in Late Medieval Japan, Gastronomica: The Journal of Food and Culture (2023). DOI: 10.1525/gfc.2023.23.3.74

Provided by University of Kansas

World's oldest guide to brewing sake receives first English translation

Study on the economic connection between health and mobility

by Birgit Holthaus, Climate Change Center Berlin Brandenburg

The health benefits of walking and cycling are so significant for society that they should be taken into account in setting fuel taxes. This is the conclusion of an international study published today (Oct. 13) in the journal Economica, in which Professor Linus Mattauch, a researcher at the Climate Change Center Berlin Brandenburg, is involved.

"We find that taking into account the health benefits of physical activity increases the optimal fuel tax by 44% in the U.S. and 38% in the U.K.," concludes the international research team, which comprises researchers from Oxford, Utrecht and Berlin. "The significant health benefits of active forms of mobility such as walking and cycling suggest that economic transport policies need to be re-evaluated," says Mattauch, co-author of the study.

"We provide a novel argument for balancing the benefits of car use with its cost to society. While our economics model allows us to quantify fuel prices specifically, our argument also applies to other elements of sustainable transport such as urban redesign."

In Germany, too, he says, about 60% of the population does not get enough exercise. Transportation policy needs to be reassessed in areas where the health benefits of increased movement are particularly high. "In the evaluation of urban transport policy measures, an urban toll on motorized vehicles in particular would have many economic advantages because it already reduces congestion and air pollution," Mattauch says.

The new study shows that a toll would have the additional advantage that citizens also get a little more exercise and that this can actually lead to savings in health care. Other policy instruments that create better conditions for non-motorized traffic, from wider bike lanes and pedestrian paths to low-traffic neighborhoods and urban greening, also have higher economic benefits than previously thought for the same reasons.

More information: Inge van den Bijgaart et al, Healthy Climate, Healthy Bodies: Optimal Fuel Taxation and Physical Activity, Economica (2023). DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12497

Provided by Climate Change Center Berlin BrandenburgMore than 200,000 deaths could be annually prevented if countries support more urban cycling by 2050

Increasing minimum wage has positive effects on employment, says study

by University of Pennsylvania

happy worker — Credit: Unsplash/CC0 Public Domain

In labor markets where employers have more control over wages, increasing the minimum wage often results in a rise in employment, according to a new study coauthored by Ioana Marinescu, an associate professor at Penn's School of Social Policy & Practice (SP2) who is director of the SP2 Master of Science in Social Policy Program and currently working with the National Bureau of Economic Research

In the paper published in the Review of Economic Studies, Marinescu and co-authors study the effects of minimum wage increases on a low-wage retail sector. The authors also utilize nationwide data on labor market concentration—a measure of competition for workers, where high concentration means that a few companies dominate hiring. Their results apply to the fast-food sector and the entire low-wage labor market.

"We find that in labor markets that are more concentrated or less densely populated, minimum wage increases lead to overall positive employment effects," Marinescu and co-authors write.

The findings reveal that in less competitive job markets where employers have more wage-setting power, and tend to pay workers less, there is more room to increase wages. In the most concentrated labor markets, the authors found that employment rises following a minimum wage increase.

This research provides evidence that the degree of "monopsony power"—or the ability of companies to pay workers less than their contribution to the companies' bottom line—in the labor market can determine how minimum wage changes affect employment.

"This paper provides compelling evidence that responses to a key labor market institution (the minimum wage) are influenced by the structure of the labor market. As such, the findings also help to further underscore the role of employer concentration in the labor market," the researchers write.

More information: José Azar et al, Minimum Wage Employment Effects and Labour Market Concentration, Review of Economic Studies (2023). DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdad091

Provided by University of Pennsylvania The costs of racial discrimination in the labor market

What does El Nino mean for the coming winter?

by Northeastern University

shoveling snow — Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

El Niño, a weather phenomenon associated with warmer temperatures in the northern U.S. and wetter weather in the South, has arrived.

But that doesn't mean people in New England and other northern states should keep their snow shovels in storage, says Auroop Ganguly, co-director of Northeastern's Global Resilience Institute.

Temperature rise based on El Niño is an average that allows for fluctuations that could become more intense due to climate change, he says.

"In places like Boston or the Northeast in general, just because temperatures will be warmer in general doesn't mean we will not have one or two fairly intense snowstorms," Ganguly says. "You should always be prepared."

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says the weather phenomenon—which means "little boy" in Spanish—got its name from South American fishermen who first noticed periods of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean in the 1600s.

"The full name they used was El Niño de Navidad, because El Niño typically peaks around December," NOAA says.

El Niño can affect global weather significantly by causing a weakening of the trade winds that typically blow west over the equator and across the Pacific, and by causing the Pacific jet stream to move south, according to NOAA.

"Typically, moderate to strong El Niño conditions during the fall and winter result in wetter-than-average conditions from southern California to along the Gulf Coast and drier-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley," NOAA says.

And this year, El Niño is strong, Ganguly says.

During an El Niño pattern, winter means the chances for warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern states increase, while conditions in the Northeast will be wetter than in the West and Midwest, Ganguly says.

In Southern states, El Niño increases the chance of flooding and wild storms, he says.

El Niño and its opposing climate pattern—La Niña for "little girl," when Pacific waters are colder than normal—occur every two to seven years but not on a regular basis, according to NOAA. La Niña is associated with colder Pacific temperatures.

The weather patterns associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation typically last nine to 12 months, are most noticeable in the fall and winter, and taper off in the spring, Ganguly says.

"El Niño causes many changes in weather patterns across the globe," Ganguly says.

"It has been called the 'seesaw' effect" for the way it causes floods in Peru and parts of South America and droughts in the Sahel section of Africa, he says. The Sahel extends from northern Senegal on the Atlantic Ocean into Sudan.

El Niño's weather patterns, though complex, change global atmospheric circulation in known ways.

A question that remains is how it interacts with climate change, Ganguly says. "The oceans are already warm. How does El Niño interact with that warming? I don't think we know that well yet."

Climate change is already making extremes more extreme at both ends of the spectrum, Ganguly says. Cold snaps may become less frequent but more intense and longer lasting, for instance, he says.

There is some evidence to show that El Niño could amplify fluctuations, but that is still being debated, Ganguly says. He points to a March 2023 article in Time magazine that says the natural periodic temperature increases associated with El Niño—the last strong one was in 2015—are no excuse for abandoning efforts to combat climate change.

"Each El Niño signature is different and manifests itself in different ways," Ganguly says. "These are very interesting times, in the sense that we are learning a lot about how these things interact."

Provided by Northeastern University

El Niño likely to develop this summer, says scientists

Scientists' model increases accuracy of tide forecasts

by Robert C. Jones Jr., University of Miami

The tides couldn't be controlled—only predicted. And for one day, June 6, in the spring of 1944, the tide prediction for the beaches of Normandy just may have been the most important in history.

Made with a machine nicknamed Old Brass Brains, that forecast for the French coast helped Allied forces pull off the largest amphibious invasion ever undertaken, providing them with the time of ideal tidal conditions that would not only make it easier to see and disarm mined obstacles placed in the surf but also prevent their landing craft from getting stuck.

Today, tide predictions are still important. A team of University of Miami scientists is helping to increase their accuracy. They have developed a model that can produce short-term high-tide forecasts for Virginia Key that are 50% more accurate than those produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), even out to ten-days.

"I never envisioned this tool achieving such success, but it has. It's capable of giving people a heads-up when tidal flooding events are going to occur," said Nate Taminger, a research associate at the Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, who began working on the model four years ago as a University undergraduate majoring in meteorology, marine science, and math.

With two years of funding support from the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD), Taminger is spearheading efforts to improve the model's effectiveness with the goal of generating regular tide forecasts for Lake Worth in Palm Beach County, Fort Lauderdale's Port Everglades, Key West, Vaca Key in the Florida Keys, Virginia Key near Miami, and Naples on Florida's southwest coast.

Updated sea level rise data and other meteorological and oceanographic variables make the tide forecast tool effective. Specifically, it incorporates three adjustments to NOAA's baseline tide predictions.

"For now, NOAA's tide predictions are based on the average sea level during the 1983–2001 period. So, to bring that up to modern sea level, an appropriate offset is made using a linear trend through the past 20 years of data," explained Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate and tropical cyclone expert at the Rosenstiel School, who mentored Taminger when he was an undergraduate at the University and is part of the team that created the model.

"Then, the current and forecast atmospheric surface pressure is used to make the second adjustment," McNoldy continued. "High- and low-pressure systems in the atmosphere affect the sea surface height with a known relationship: Higher pressure causes a dip or dent in the ocean surface and lower pressure causes a dome or bulge in the ocean surface.

"Finally, a multiple linear regression model is utilized on four additional environmental parameters, and that can adjust the water level up or down as well. The model is trained on each tide gauge's available history, so it learns what environmental factors generate a given response in the water level at that location."

Taminger detailed the specifics of the model during a climate resiliency conference held at the University of Miami campus in April 2022 and later to officials at the SFWMD, which used the model in advance of a recent flooding event in the region.

"We got the alarm out early and once [the model is refined], we hope to make the output easier for the public at large to see," said Todd Kimberlain, SFWMD's lead meteorologist. "It's essential that we have better tide predictions. With this model, there's just a very small difference between what the forecasts are and what actually occurs."

McNoldy posts the model's daily tide plots for Virginia Key, Key West, Vaca Key, and Lake Worth on a public webpage and plans to add tide forecasts for Port Everglades and Naples by December.

Tide forecasts are just as essential today as they were when Allied forces were planning the D-Day invasion, McNoldy noted. "They are important for coastal shipping and boating interests, as some shallow features can be dangerous during low tide but fine during high tide," he said. "And for low-lying coastal infrastructure, knowing when to expect high tides and how high they might be can help prepare for potential flooding events."

Sea level rise, he explained, is making tidal flooding more frequent and more severe. "In the Miami area, sea level is rising at an average rate of about 0.25 inches per year, or about 7.5 inches in the past three decades," McNoldy said. "There are ups and downs in the mean sea level from one year to the next, but the overall trend is upward. This means that places now flood during some high tides that did not flood before, and places that used to experience some flooding during high tides now experience it much more often and with deeper water."

The scientists are working on improving their tide forecast model at a time when the annual king tides have returned. Combined with the effects of sea level rise and heavy rains, king tides—which occur each fall when climatological, atmospheric, and oceanic conditions align to cause water levels to surge—can make flooding in Miami Beach much worse.

Professor of atmospheric sciences Brian Soden, who also served as one of Taminger's faculty advisors and is part of the team that developed the model, said the new forecast tool could "help coastal communities better prepare and plan for disruptions caused by king tides."

Provided by University of Miami

US high tide flooding continues to break records

Scientists use drones to land sensors onto 'unreachable' glaciers threatened by climate change

by University of Southampton

Scientist have unveiled a new climate change-monitoring sensor which can be airlifted onto icy glaciers using drones to measure the impact of global warming.

The device, built by experts from the University of Southampton, can be flown for miles and land directly onto glaciers which are usually be impossible to reach by humans.

The scientific team have already deployed two of the sensors in Iceland to assess melting ice and its contribution to rising sea levels.

Professor Kirk Martinez, from the University of Southampton team, said the tech is the first of its kind to examine the precise movement of glaciers.

He added, "These sensors are lightweight enough to be delivered by drone to give us access to places which are usually unreachable manually. We have already begun receiving data daily which shows changes in the glacier's behavior and its fluctuations in velocity."

The scientists behind the device are now inspecting the findings from the two sensors that have been flown to freezing conditions in Iceland.

The team are also aiming to use the sensors in other locations worldwide, said Professor of Geography Jane K. Hart also from the University of Southampton.

She added, "Glaciers are like the canaries as they provide us with a warning sign for climate change. The sensors we are landing on the glaciers provide a new way of observing their behavior."

Provided by University of Southampton Research examines new links between retreating glaciers and global warming

An extended critique of the EIGE Gender Equality Index

by University of Manchester

New research by staff from Social Statistics has reviewed the methodology of one of the most comprehensive indices of gender equality, the Gender Equality Index by the European Institute for Gender Equality (EIGE).

The research shows that in addition to the use of the correcting coefficient, other methodological choices (such as the use of ratios and geometric means) result in an unjustified penalization of lower-GDP countries and the reinforcing of biased assumptions about gender equality progress.

The research calls for greater transparency around theory, method and the relationship between the two while also proposing methodological improvements.

These changes would bring the EIGE index closer to fulfilling its potential to provide a nuanced understanding of gender equality levels in the European Union and effectively inform policy development toward social change.

The paper is published in Social Indicators Research.

More information: Caitlin B. Schmid et al, "Why Call It Equality?" Revisited: An Extended Critique of the EIGE Gender Equality Index, Social Indicators Research (2023). DOI: 10.1007/s11205-023-03126-5

Journal information: Social Indicators Research

Provided by University of Manchester Gender assumptions harm progress on climate adaption and resilience

Exploring the genetic potential of eggplant's wild relatives for sustainable agriculture

by NanJing Agricultural University

In the pursuit of sustainable agriculture, enhancing nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) in crops stands as a primary objective. With the prolific use of nitrogen (N) fertilizers since the 20th century, agricultural productivity has seen remarkable growth. However, excessive use of N fertilizers has resulted in serious environmental threats and energy consumption.

Crop wild relatives (CWR) provide valuable genetic resources to address this issue through breeding programs. Wild relatives of eggplant (Solanum melongena L.) are classified into primary (GP1), secondary (GP2), and tertiary (GP3) gene pools, which are unexploited gene pool. Yet, direct utilization of CWRs in breeding is complex due to inherent genetic barriers. This underscores the imperative to develop and study advanced backcrosses (ABs) for seamlessly incorporating these beneficial traits.

In a study titled "Evaluation of three sets of advanced backcrosses of eggplant with wild relatives from different gene pools under low N fertilization conditions" published in Horticulture Research, 22 morpho-agronomic, physiological, and NUE traits were evaluated under low nitrogen (LN) fertilization conditions in CWRs of eggplant (S. insanum, S. dasyphyllum and S. elaeagnifolium) and their advanced backcrosses (ABs; BC3 to BC5 generations).

Genome coverage of the donor wild relatives varied, with the highest coverage observed in S. elaeagnifolium at 99.2%. For S. insanum, significant representation was observed on chromosomes 1 (86.8%) and 3 (80.9%), while for S. dasyphyllum, emphasis was on chromosomes 1 (84.8%) and 5 (86.3%).

Upon characterizing S. melongena recurrent parents (MEL5, MEL1, and MEL3), notable disparities emerged between nitrogen treatments. For instance, a 3.7-fold and 5.0-fold change in yield and fruit number (F-Number), respectively, was identified across treatments for MEL5. Additionally, fruit metrics, such as fruit pedicel length in MEL5, exhibited differences under varied nitrogen conditions.

Principal components analysis (PCA) revealed trait groupings among the AB sets, with 48.8% total variation accounted for in the S. insanum and its recurrent parent S. melongena MEL5. Pearson linear correlations showcased significant trait relationships across the AB sets.

A total of 16 putative quantitative trait loci (QTLs) were identified across the AB sets, hinting at underlying genetic controls for specific traits, and potential candidate genes were pinpointed from the eggplant reference genome assembly. Of the 16 putative quantitative trait loci (QTLs) identified, five were localized to the same position on chromosome 9 of S. insanum. The "67/3" eggplant reference genome further pinpointed potential candidate genes, including the nitrate transporter 1/peptide transporter on chromosome 9.

In summary, this research emphasizes the vast potential of eggplant wild relatives for genetic improvement under low nitrogen conditions to promote sustainable agriculture. The identified QTLs and their associations provide a basis for innovative eggplant breeding efforts to support improved yield, quality and nitrogen use efficiency of eggplant under LN conditions.

More information: Gloria Villanueva et al, Evaluation of three sets of advanced backcrosses of eggplant with wild relatives from different gene pools under low N fertilization conditions, Horticulture Research (2023). DOI: 10.1093/hr/uhad141

Journal information: Horticulture Research

Provided by NanJing Agricultural University How Eggplants became Asian – genomes and elephants tell the story

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