By Lauren Fox, Accuweather.com
Cars are left stranded on the Long Island Expressway due to flooding from a massive downpour of rain from Hurricane Ida on September 1.
Hanoi, Vietnam, the nation's capital, could become below sea level if the current rate of warming on Earth continues. Image courtesy of Climate Central
The graphics reveal what various landmarks across the world will look like in 2100 with 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming and 3 C (5.4 F) of warming. With 1.5 C of warming, research suggests that ocean levels will rise 1.5 feet by the year 2100, compared to if the Earth warms 3 C, which would result in sea levels rising 21 feet by 2100.
"This study really looks at long-term sea levels where the threat would be permanent and complete inundation," Strauss said. "There a possibility to build defenses for sure, but we have to ask how deep a bowl they want to live in the bottom of."
The sections in yellow show which parts of Florida would be under water if global warming continues to rise at a rate of 3 degrees C, while the purple shows which parts would be underwater if global warming was scaled back to just 1.5 degrees C. Image courtesy of Climate Central
Some 50 cities across the globe are at risk of losing their most-developed areas to rising sea levels.
"Even the low end is serious, but we'll have some time to deal with it," he said.
Under the "best-case scenario," Strauss said, sea levels could rise from 5-10 feet in the next few centuries, with 30 feet or more being the worst-case scenario.
"The whole point of our research was to show how large a choice we have," Strauss said. "It's really a choice between a manageable future and one where there would be so much sea level rise that many of our great coastal cities are likely to be lost."
According to Climate Central, some of the "most ambitious" goals from the Paris Climate Agreement would cut exposure by around 50.
Strauss said that while the rise will occur over multiple centuries, the study mainly focused on how much sea levels will rise -- not how quickly -- as the speed of the rise can be very difficult to predict.
"Think about your freezer. If you unplug your freezer, you know it's going to thaw, but you don't know hour by hour how many things will melt or when it will all finish melting," Strauss said. "The same thing is true when you do scientific projections of sea-level rise."
RELATED AAA: Vehicle auto safety systems often fail when driving in heavy rain
The rise may not reach its full effects for a few centuries, but what is done now to mitigate it is important. Strauss said the actions that are taken in the next few decades will "lock-in" the future for many of these historic locations that once seemed destined to last the test of time.
In many cities, the mitigation efforts may be too expensive or sea levels could be too high to fight back against, so saving them could be unrealistic at that point in time. Once the carbon is in the air, Strauss said it will continue to warm the planet for centuries to come.
"We would see relocation and loss of the great heritage we have and all of those coastal places," Strauss said. "It's up to us to prevent that."
Cars are left stranded on the Long Island Expressway due to flooding from a massive downpour of rain from Hurricane Ida on September 1.
File Photo by John Angelillo/UPI | License Photo
How will climate change alter the landscape of the Earth over the next few hundred years? New interactive tools developed by researchers at Climate Central can paint that picture.
The tools demonstrate how much sea levels could rise if changes are or are not made in carbon pollution levels. If changes aren't made, Ben Strauss, CEO and chief scientist of Climate Central, a consortium of independent scientists and journalists based in Princeton, N.J., said that millions of people living along coastlines will be at-risk, and Asia will be the region of the world that will be most at-risk. Among all the nations at-risk, Vietnam has the highest risks from rising sea levels.
In the United States, South Florida, Boston, New York City and the Bay Area in California are most at risk of "a great deal of threats as well," Strauss said.
How will climate change alter the landscape of the Earth over the next few hundred years? New interactive tools developed by researchers at Climate Central can paint that picture.
The tools demonstrate how much sea levels could rise if changes are or are not made in carbon pollution levels. If changes aren't made, Ben Strauss, CEO and chief scientist of Climate Central, a consortium of independent scientists and journalists based in Princeton, N.J., said that millions of people living along coastlines will be at-risk, and Asia will be the region of the world that will be most at-risk. Among all the nations at-risk, Vietnam has the highest risks from rising sea levels.
In the United States, South Florida, Boston, New York City and the Bay Area in California are most at risk of "a great deal of threats as well," Strauss said.
Hanoi, Vietnam, the nation's capital, could become below sea level if the current rate of warming on Earth continues. Image courtesy of Climate Central
The graphics reveal what various landmarks across the world will look like in 2100 with 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming and 3 C (5.4 F) of warming. With 1.5 C of warming, research suggests that ocean levels will rise 1.5 feet by the year 2100, compared to if the Earth warms 3 C, which would result in sea levels rising 21 feet by 2100.
"This study really looks at long-term sea levels where the threat would be permanent and complete inundation," Strauss said. "There a possibility to build defenses for sure, but we have to ask how deep a bowl they want to live in the bottom of."
The sections in yellow show which parts of Florida would be under water if global warming continues to rise at a rate of 3 degrees C, while the purple shows which parts would be underwater if global warming was scaled back to just 1.5 degrees C. Image courtesy of Climate Central
Some 50 cities across the globe are at risk of losing their most-developed areas to rising sea levels.
"Even the low end is serious, but we'll have some time to deal with it," he said.
Under the "best-case scenario," Strauss said, sea levels could rise from 5-10 feet in the next few centuries, with 30 feet or more being the worst-case scenario.
"The whole point of our research was to show how large a choice we have," Strauss said. "It's really a choice between a manageable future and one where there would be so much sea level rise that many of our great coastal cities are likely to be lost."
According to Climate Central, some of the "most ambitious" goals from the Paris Climate Agreement would cut exposure by around 50.
Strauss said that while the rise will occur over multiple centuries, the study mainly focused on how much sea levels will rise -- not how quickly -- as the speed of the rise can be very difficult to predict.
"Think about your freezer. If you unplug your freezer, you know it's going to thaw, but you don't know hour by hour how many things will melt or when it will all finish melting," Strauss said. "The same thing is true when you do scientific projections of sea-level rise."
RELATED AAA: Vehicle auto safety systems often fail when driving in heavy rain
The rise may not reach its full effects for a few centuries, but what is done now to mitigate it is important. Strauss said the actions that are taken in the next few decades will "lock-in" the future for many of these historic locations that once seemed destined to last the test of time.
In many cities, the mitigation efforts may be too expensive or sea levels could be too high to fight back against, so saving them could be unrealistic at that point in time. Once the carbon is in the air, Strauss said it will continue to warm the planet for centuries to come.
"We would see relocation and loss of the great heritage we have and all of those coastal places," Strauss said. "It's up to us to prevent that."
We now know how badly our cities will be flooded due to climate change
Matthew Rozsa, Salon
October 16, 2021
A rescue workers walks in a flooded area to help residents as the Charente River overflows in Saintes after days of rainy weather causing flooding in western France, France, February 8, 2021. REUTERS - STEPHANE MAHE
When it comes to climate change, the point of no return has already passed.
That is the message of a new report published in the esteemed scientific journal Environmental Research Letters. It paints a picture of a future Earth in which, regardless of actions taken today, hundreds of millions of people will be displaced from their homes by rising sea levels. The carbon dioxide emissions already released into our atmosphere will linger for hundreds of years, warming the oceans and thus causing sea levels to rise. The only question now is whether the damage can be limited.
The answer, according to the report, is yes — but humans will need to take specific, drastic actions as soon as possible.
"Meeting the most ambitious goals of the Paris Climate Agreement will likely reduce exposure by roughly half and may avoid globally unprecedented defense requirements for any coastal megacity exceeding a contemporary population of 10 million," the authors write. (The report was co-written by Benjamin H. Strauss and Scott A. Kulp of Climate Central, DJ Rasmussen of Princeton University and German scientist Ander Levermann.) The long-term goal of the Paris Agreement is to limit the mean increase in global temperatures to no more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Even if that happens, however, oceans will continue to swell, meaning there will be millions upon millions of drenched city dwellers.
"Roughly 5 percent of the world's population today live on land below where the high tide level is expected to rise based on carbon dioxide that human activity has already added to the atmosphere," Strauss told AFP. With roughly 7.8 billion human beings alive today, this means approximately 390 million currently live on land that will be under the high tide level as a result of climate change.
That said, reducing the temperature rise is crucial, experts say. If Earth's average temperature increases by even half a degree Celsius, an extra 200 million people will be vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise and increased storm surges. Each successive degree only increases the damage, as sea levels progressively rise and thereby displace more people.
Want more health and science stories in your inbox? Subscribe to Salon's weekly newsletter The Vulgar Scientist.
In the report, the scientists offer detailed projections for the 20 most-affected large countries (those with at least 25 million people) in terms of the percentages of their populations that currently occupy land below high tide lines based on different warming scenarios. If the planet merely warms by 1.5°C, 2.8 percent of the population of the United States could be directly impacted. Increase that by half a degree, and suddenly 5.9 percent of Americans could deal with rising sea levels. If it goes up by 3°C or 4°C, 7.9 percent or 9.9 percent of the American population could see rising sea levels where they live.
Things will be particularly bad in New York City, where officials are already considering sea walls and other measures to fortify its population against rising sea levels. Even under the most ambitious Paris Agreement target, land will fall under the high tide line that is currently home to 6.7 percent of the population. At 2°C, that rises to 13 percent; at 3°C, it reaches 19 percent; and at 4°C, it hits 28 percent.
The most vulnerable region, however, is Asia. Nine of the ten megacities at the highest risk are on that continent, and many of the countries with the starkest projections are also located there. The jump from 1.5°C to 2°C makes the difference, in Vietnam and Bangladesh, between more or less than half of their total populations living below the high tide line. If the planet's temperature rises to 4°C above pre-industrial levels, more than 60 percent of those nations' populations could fall below the high tide line. More than 30 percent of the populations of Egypt, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Japan and Myanmar would also suffer that fate in a scenario where the temperature rises by more than 4°C.
Climate Central has also released visual illustrations of how prominent American landmarks will look after sea level rises. Almost all of the land around the Statue of Liberty National Monument will be submerged, as will the area surrounding Space Center Houston. Yet these and other major landmarks would almost certainly have to be abandoned long before sea levels rose that high, as there will be an increase in heavy rainfalls and storm surges.
Matthew Rozsa, Salon
October 16, 2021
A rescue workers walks in a flooded area to help residents as the Charente River overflows in Saintes after days of rainy weather causing flooding in western France, France, February 8, 2021. REUTERS - STEPHANE MAHE
When it comes to climate change, the point of no return has already passed.
That is the message of a new report published in the esteemed scientific journal Environmental Research Letters. It paints a picture of a future Earth in which, regardless of actions taken today, hundreds of millions of people will be displaced from their homes by rising sea levels. The carbon dioxide emissions already released into our atmosphere will linger for hundreds of years, warming the oceans and thus causing sea levels to rise. The only question now is whether the damage can be limited.
The answer, according to the report, is yes — but humans will need to take specific, drastic actions as soon as possible.
"Meeting the most ambitious goals of the Paris Climate Agreement will likely reduce exposure by roughly half and may avoid globally unprecedented defense requirements for any coastal megacity exceeding a contemporary population of 10 million," the authors write. (The report was co-written by Benjamin H. Strauss and Scott A. Kulp of Climate Central, DJ Rasmussen of Princeton University and German scientist Ander Levermann.) The long-term goal of the Paris Agreement is to limit the mean increase in global temperatures to no more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Even if that happens, however, oceans will continue to swell, meaning there will be millions upon millions of drenched city dwellers.
"Roughly 5 percent of the world's population today live on land below where the high tide level is expected to rise based on carbon dioxide that human activity has already added to the atmosphere," Strauss told AFP. With roughly 7.8 billion human beings alive today, this means approximately 390 million currently live on land that will be under the high tide level as a result of climate change.
That said, reducing the temperature rise is crucial, experts say. If Earth's average temperature increases by even half a degree Celsius, an extra 200 million people will be vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise and increased storm surges. Each successive degree only increases the damage, as sea levels progressively rise and thereby displace more people.
Want more health and science stories in your inbox? Subscribe to Salon's weekly newsletter The Vulgar Scientist.
In the report, the scientists offer detailed projections for the 20 most-affected large countries (those with at least 25 million people) in terms of the percentages of their populations that currently occupy land below high tide lines based on different warming scenarios. If the planet merely warms by 1.5°C, 2.8 percent of the population of the United States could be directly impacted. Increase that by half a degree, and suddenly 5.9 percent of Americans could deal with rising sea levels. If it goes up by 3°C or 4°C, 7.9 percent or 9.9 percent of the American population could see rising sea levels where they live.
Things will be particularly bad in New York City, where officials are already considering sea walls and other measures to fortify its population against rising sea levels. Even under the most ambitious Paris Agreement target, land will fall under the high tide line that is currently home to 6.7 percent of the population. At 2°C, that rises to 13 percent; at 3°C, it reaches 19 percent; and at 4°C, it hits 28 percent.
The most vulnerable region, however, is Asia. Nine of the ten megacities at the highest risk are on that continent, and many of the countries with the starkest projections are also located there. The jump from 1.5°C to 2°C makes the difference, in Vietnam and Bangladesh, between more or less than half of their total populations living below the high tide line. If the planet's temperature rises to 4°C above pre-industrial levels, more than 60 percent of those nations' populations could fall below the high tide line. More than 30 percent of the populations of Egypt, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Japan and Myanmar would also suffer that fate in a scenario where the temperature rises by more than 4°C.
Climate Central has also released visual illustrations of how prominent American landmarks will look after sea level rises. Almost all of the land around the Statue of Liberty National Monument will be submerged, as will the area surrounding Space Center Houston. Yet these and other major landmarks would almost certainly have to be abandoned long before sea levels rose that high, as there will be an increase in heavy rainfalls and storm surges.
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