Rethinking climate impacts through human wellbeing
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
A new study by IIASA researchers offers a pioneering way to understand how climate change affects people’s lives over the long term. Using a global model and the Years of Good Life (YoGL) metric, the research shows that today’s emissions shape future wellbeing, especially for younger generations.
Human wellbeing is increasingly recognized as a better benchmark for sustainable development than GDP. Yet, while GDP is losing its prominence as a measure of wellbeing, climate impacts are still mostly assessed in monetary terms, most notably through the social cost of carbon, which is based solely on economic damage. The study, titled “Wellbeing cost of carbon” and published in Global Sustainability, takes an important step toward measuring climate impacts in terms that matter directly to people by shifting the focus from economic output to human wellbeing itself.
Linking climate, society, and human wellbeing
Using a global systems model together with the Years of Good Life (YoGL) indicator developed at IIASA, the researchers show how climate change, economic development, and social conditions combined shape long-term human wellbeing. Years of Good Life measures how many years individuals can expect to live in good physical and cognitive health, above poverty, and with overall life satisfaction.
By explicitly modeling feedbacks between natural, human, and economic capital and Years of Good Life, the analysis provides the first quantitative estimation of the core equation of sustainability science using an empirically grounded and intuitive wellbeing metric, going well beyond earlier approaches that could not clearly trace how environmental change affects wellbeing over time.
Key results: up to 11.3 Years of Good Life at stake
The results show that strong climate action could increase individual wellbeing by up to 10.4 Years of Good Life on average, while high-emissions pathways could reduce lifetime wellbeing by as much as 11.3 years. Younger generations face the highest marginal wellbeing losses from today’s emissions, highlighting pronounced intergenerational inequities. The analysis also reveals gender differences, with men experiencing higher marginal wellbeing losses per unit of carbon emitted, despite women often having lower overall wellbeing levels.
“Our study demonstrates that wellbeing can be modeled in a forward-looking and integrated way, capturing the links between climate change, the economy, and social development,” says study author and IIASA Senior Research Scholar, Sibel Eker. “For policymakers, the approach offers a way to compare climate and development pathways, with human wellbeing – not just economic output – at the center of decision-making.”
“For the first time, we can quantify how changes in climate and other forms of natural, human or economic capital translate into gains or losses in human wellbeing across generations and genders. It is time to think about the wellbeing cost of carbon instead of focusing only on economic costs, because what ultimately matters is how today’s emissions shape the quality of life of future generations,” concludes IIASA Distinguished Emeritus Research Scholar and coauthor, Wolfgang Lutz.
Reference
Eker, S., Reiter, C., Liu, Q., Kuhn, M., Lutz, W. (2026). Wellbeing cost of carbon. Global Sustainability DOI: 10.1017/sus.2025.10042
About IIASA:
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is an international scientific institute that conducts research into the critical issues of global environmental, economic, technological, and social change that we face in the twenty-first century. Our findings provide valuable options to policymakers to shape the future of our changing world. IIASA is independent and funded by prestigious research funding agencies in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Europe.
Learning about public consensus on climate change does little to boost people’s support for action, study shows
Providing accurate information about the climate crisis can help to correct misperceptions about how much public support exists for action.
However, simply showing that others support climate action does not, on its own, have a meaningful impact on people’s own beliefs or behavioural intentions, a new study based on data from Germany shows, challenging common expectations about the power of public consensus to drive climate action.
The study finds that learning about widespread public support for climate action policies can initially make people think such policies are more politically feasible and more likely to be implemented. However, these effects are small and short-lived, raising questions about how effective such communication strategies are in practice.
The data were collected in collaboration with YouGov in Germany in 2021 and include 2,801 respondents. The same people were surveyed twice, around two weeks apart. Some participants were shown information about how widespread public support for climate action actually is in Germany. Others were not shown this information.
Overall, people in Germany had a fairly accurate sense of how much public support exists for climate action. On average, they did not believe that only a small minority supports action to combat climate change. At the same time, some people underestimated how many others supported climate action and specific climate policies.
Among those who underestimated public support, the information shown in the study made a clear difference. When presented with evidence of how widespread support for climate action is, they updated their views about public opinion. This learning was not fleeting. It was still visible when the same people were surveyed again two weeks later.
Importantly, this learning was limited to perceptions of public opinion. Knowing that many others supported climate action did not change people’s own beliefs about climate change, such as whether human activity is the main cause, their personal preferences for climate policies, or their intentions to change their behaviour, for example using public transport instead of a car.
There was one partial exception. People who learned about broad public support initially found political climate action more feasible. For example, they were slightly more likely to think that policies such as taxing goods based on their CO₂ emissions could realistically be implemented. However, this effect faded by the follow-up survey.
The study, published in the Journal of Environmental Psychology, was conducted within the Debunker Lab, led by Jason Reifler (University of Southampton; formerly University of Exeter). The research is led by Matthew Barnfield (Queen Mary University of London) and co-authored by Paula Szewach (Barcelona Supercomputing Center), Sabrina Stöckli (University of Bern), Florian Stoeckel (University of Exeter), Jack Thompson (University of Leeds), Joseph Phillips (Cardiff University), Benjamin Lyons (University of Utah), and Vittorio Mérola (Durham University).
Dr Barnfield said: “Learning how much consensus there is in support for policy action on climate change seems to durably increase people's perceptions of that consensus, even for policies that we didn't specifically tell them about. But that does not seem to have much effect on how much people support or even themselves adopt environmentally friendly actions. This finding might disappoint experts who have argued for this approach as a way to accelerate climate action in democracies.”
Professor Stoeckel added: “People do learn what others think on climate change, and that learning can persist. At the same time, our study shows clear limits to what can be expected from this strategy. Simply telling people that climate action is widely supported is likely not enough to change beliefs, preferences, or behaviour.”
Journal
Journal of Environmental Psychology
Method of Research
Survey
Subject of Research
People
Article Title
Information on public opinion has lasting effects on second-order climate beliefs, but minimal and ephemeral effects on first-order beliefs
Article Publication Date
7-Jan-2026
Greening school playgrounds improves quality of life in cities and helps deal with climate change
After three years of work, a European project led by a team of researchers at the UOC and UPC calls for cities to be built based on the urban planning principle of looking after shared, natural and climate-adapted spaces, particularly in school environment
Adapting urban spaces to tackle climate change through nature-based solutions, especially in school playgrounds and environments, benefits both children and society as a whole. This is one of the main findings of a three-year study conducted by a group of experts at European universities and research centres under the leadership of a team of researchers at the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC) and Universitat Polit̬cnica de Catalunya РBarcelonaTech (UPC). The study, titled COOLSCHOOLS, is an interdisciplinary applied research project that seeks to analyse the many benefits of nature-based solutions for climate adaptation.
"Greening school environments is more than just a climate adaptation strategy. It's essential for ecosocial education, environmental justice and planetary health," said Isabel Ruiz Mallén, co-leader of the study and co-coordinator of COOLSCHOOLS. Ruiz Mallén is a member of the Faculty of Psychology and Education Sciences and researcher at the TURBA Lab group, which is affiliated to the UOC-TRÀNSIC research centre, a team that analyses urban designs and transformations from an environmental and technological point of view and based on a critical and interdisciplinary approach.
“Greening school environments is an imperative for planetary health, ecosocial education and environmental justice.”
More specifically, the study, which has been published in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change, is a comment article that uses scientific research to examine the transformative impact of greening actions in school playgrounds to tackle climate change in schools in Barcelona, Brussels, Paris and Rotterdam. Its assessment draws from aspects of natural, biomedical, social and educational sciences. The project has been carried out with the collaboration of 16 partners, including European city councils, universities, research centres, social cooperatives and associations, and international organizations.
The project's objectives are: to ascertain how climate shelters in school environments can enable the implementation of governance practices aimed at urban transformation that ensure inclusion and the sharing of power among all the stakeholders involved; to carry out and promote the concept of nature-based climate shelters, moving away from traditional closed, climate-controlled spaces; to drive urban transformation on a larger scale by using schools as strategic hubs for positive climate action; and to assess their effects based on a holistic approach, taking into account matters such as social justice, biodiversity, public health, safety, inclusive governance and educational quality.
According to data from 2022 from the European Climate and Health Observatory, the "heat island" effect has increased heat-related health risks for 40% of schools located in cities. Furthermore, it is estimated that, in almost 90% of primary schools, less than one third of services, areas and infrastructure is located within 300 metres of a green area.
"As shown in previous research, grey school playgrounds and environments, i.e. those predominantly composed of cement and other synthetic materials, weaken children's bond with nature, reducing their ability to act responsibly and constructively in the face of climate change," said Francesc Baró, co-coordinator of the project and co-leader of the work, a researcher in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the UPC and the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB).
"If we don't take action in school environments, a greater proportion of children will be exposed to growing risks associated with extreme heat and air pollution," said Baró.
Play
Transforming society through greening
Following the study and the analysis of its findings, the experts are calling for the principles of building shared spaces and natural and climate-adapted areas, especially in and around schools, to take priority in the design of urban environments.
"In addition to helping to reduce temperatures and increase the amount of greenery to tackle the effects of extreme heat, transforming school environments into nature-based climate shelters promotes quality education, ecological restoration, empowerment and reconnection with nature, providing children with healthier, safer, play-friendly, equitable and climate-ready spaces," said the researchers.
According to the authors, such well-designed and climate-adapted spaces can transform various sectors of society, as well as change ways of thinking, interactions between people and our relationship with nature.
"Building liveable, inclusive and climate-resilient cities involves working together to turn school environments into nature-based climate shelters. This isn't just because of children's vulnerability but also because of their visionary ideas," said Ruiz Mallén, who highlighted the power of children's imagination as a raw material for the future of society.
"Beyond their value to the schools themselves, nature-based playgrounds can trigger a broader urban transformation. Schools don't exist in isolation from the towns or neighbourhoods in which they're located: they are levers for systemic change," said the UOC researcher.
Thus, the use of an adapted design aimed at building and consolidating open and accessible public spaces broadens its reach and its impact on society beyond the educational community. For example, such spaces can foster inclusive and resilient urban design practices while inspiring the redesign of parks and other shared urban infrastructure. "This strategy brings countless social and environmental benefits to surrounding neighbourhoods. This is why nature-based school playgrounds present a unique opportunity to give everyone equal access to nature in cities," said the authors.
A growth model for the present day
The study is thus a call for greater emphasis to be placed on enhancing, protecting and looking after shared, natural and climate-adapted spaces in the construction and adaptation of cities and urban environments. "This premise should be a design principle, not a secondary consideration," said Ruiz Mallén.
"Failing to include nature as a co-educator deprives today's children of the opportunity to have the tools and values necessary to lead sustainable and inclusive cities. There's a risk that younger generations won't be motivated to question the status quo and seek solutions to the many global crises facing them," said Baró.
To achieve this, these experts are calling for greater engagement from the authorities in the form of ambitious and adequate budgets, an investment in the future to transform and maintain school playgrounds and other spaces for the benefit of society as a whole.
"We must act now: before the next heat wave, before we become even more disconnected from nature and before another generation inherits a city incapable of ensuring its own future," they concluded.
The COOLSCHOOLS project has received over €1.5 million in funding from the JPI Urban Transformation Capacities (JPI Urban Europe) fund, of which the Spanish State Research Agency (AEI) is a member. Project with reference number PCI2022-132958, funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and the European Union NextGenerationEU/PRTR.
This project is part of the Digital health and planetary well-being research mission and supports the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): 4 (Quality Education), 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure) and 10 (Reduced Inequalities).
Reference:
Ruiz-Mallén, I., Baró, F., Bentouhami, H. et al. Greening schools for climate-resilient, inclusive and liveable cities. Nature Climate Change (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02519-3
https://hdl.handle.net/10609/153937
Transformative, impactful research
At the UOC, we see research as a strategic tool to advance towards a future society that is more critical, responsible and nonconformist. With this vision, we conduct applied research that's interdisciplinary and linked to the most important social, technological and educational challenges.
The UOC’s over 500 researchers and more than 50 research groups are working in five research units focusing on five missions: lifelong learning; ethical and human-centred technology; digital transition and sustainability; culture for a critical society, and digital health and planetary well-being.
The university's Hubbik platform fosters knowledge transfer and entrepreneurship in the UOC community.
More information: www.uoc.edu/en/research
Journal
Nature Climate Change
Method of Research
Commentary/editorial
Subject of Research
People
Article Title
Greening schools for climate-resilient, inclusive and liveable cities
UC Irvine public health experts highlight climate change-driven nutrition gaps
Researchers urge exploration of dietary supplements’ potential use in addressing deficiencies
Irvine, Calif., Jan. 15, 2026 — Environmental factors driven by climate change are already shaping what ends up on Americans’ plates and how nutritious it is, according to a new perspective paper by researchers at the University of California, Irvine’s Joe C. Wen School of Population & Public Health.
Rising carbon dioxide levels, extreme weather events, air pollution and shifting ecosystems are disrupting food production and supply chains, often in ways that make healthy food harder to find or afford. The paper examines how these forces may quietly erode the nutritional quality of everyday foods, from grains to fruits and vegetables, with consequences for long-term health.
As crops are damaged by floods, heat waves and droughts, and as environmental conditions alter the nutrient content of staple foods, communities – especially those already facing food insecurity – may be at greater risk of nutrient deficiencies. The authors assert that this raises urgent questions about whether dietary supplements could help fill emerging nutrition gaps or support health during environmental stress.
“Environmental change is not only an ecological issue. It’s a nutrition and public health issue,” said Margaret Nagai-Singer, first author of the paper and a research fellow in Wen Public Health. “When the food system becomes less stable or less nutritious, people feel it in very real ways – in their health, their medical costs and their daily lives.”
Studies have shown that higher carbon dioxide levels can reduce iron, zinc and protein in staple crops like wheat and rice. At the same time, extreme weather events can disrupt food distribution and limit access to fresh, nutritious foods, particularly in low-income and disaster-affected communities. These shifts may worsen chronic conditions and widen existing health disparities.
Exposure to extreme heat, wildfire smoke, air pollution and climate-sensitive infectious diseases can also trigger inflammation, oxidative stress and other biological responses that affect health. Some research suggests that certain nutrients may help protect against these stressors, but more detailed knowledge is lacking.
Dietary supplements are often used to help people meet recommended nutrient intakes, and the researchers note that they could become more relevant as environmental pressures grow. They also caution that questions about safety, effectiveness, affordability and appropriate use – especially across different ages, health conditions and environmental exposures – remain largely unanswered.
Additional research is needed in three key areas: understanding nutrient gaps linked to environmental change; determining whether supplements can help the body cope with stressors such as heat, air pollution and infectious diseases; and evaluating how dietary choices and the supplement industry itself affect the environment.
The environmental footprint of dietary supplements, including how ingredients are sourced and how products are manufactured and packaged, is an issue that may matter more to consumers as awareness of sustainability grows.
“Dietary supplements are not a substitute for a healthy diet or for fixing the underlying problems in our food system,” said Jun Wu, senior author of the paper and a professor of environmental and occupational health in Wen Public Health. “But as environmental challenges intensify, it’s important to understand whether they can play a limited, evidence-based role alongside broader solutions.”
The researchers emphasize that answering these questions will require collaboration across public health, nutrition, environmental science and policy. Their goal is to inform future research and public health decisions as climate-related changes continue to influence what people eat and how those choices affect their health.
About the University of California, Irvine: Founded in 1965, UC Irvine is a member of the prestigious Association of American Universities and is ranked among the nation’s top 10 public universities by U.S. News & World Report. The campus has produced five Nobel laureates and is known for its academic achievement, premier research, innovation and anteater mascot. Led by Chancellor Howard Gillman, UC Irvine has more than 36,000 students and offers 224 degree programs. It’s located in one of the world’s safest and most economically vibrant communities and is Orange County’s second-largest employer, contributing $7 billion annually to the local economy and $8 billion statewide. For more on UC Irvine, visit www.uci.edu.
Media access: Radio programs/stations may, for a fee, use an on-campus studio with a Comrex IP audio codec to interview UC Irvine faculty and experts, subject to availability and university approval. For more UC Irvine news, visit news.uci.edu. Additional resources for journalists may be found at https://news.uci.edu/media-resources.
Journal
Advances in Nutrition
Article Title
The Role of Dietary Supplements in Environmental Challenges
Article Publication Date
15-Jan-2026
How climate change contributed to the demise of the Tang dynasty
University of Basel
Migration and mobility due to climate change are nothing new. This is suggested by an interdisciplinary study in which researchers from the University of Basel were also involved. They investigated how hydrological extremes such as droughts and floods between 800 and 907 CE in particular affected society and politics in China. They report on their findings in Nature Communications Earth and Environment.
Tree rings as contemporary witnesses
This period is interesting because it marked the decline of the Tang dynasty, which had existed since 618 CE and is considered a cultural high point in China’s history, with a sophisticated administrative system and a flourishing culture. The study focuses on the region around the Huanghe river (Yellow River) in northern China. Using climate proxy data, they determined trends in how the local climate changed in the 9th century CE.
Tree rings, for example, provide clues about the climate. Their condition indicates whether a year was dry or rainy: in years with high precipitation, trees grow faster and the tree rings are further apart than in dry years. The older a tree is, the further back this data archive goes.
The researchers used existing long-term tree-ring data records from the Yellow River basin. The reconstructed runoff behavior served as an indicator for hydroclimatic models, especially for the upper courses of the river. “The runoff eventually reaches further downstream and influences the amount of water available, for example for irrigating the fields,” says the study’s first author Michael Kempf, who has since moved from the University of Basel to the University of Cambridge.
Fatal changes in agriculture
Based on their analyses, the researchers conclude that climatic changes and an increase in extreme weather events were key factors in the collapse of the Tang dynasty in 907 CE. Increased droughts and floods took their toll on the soldiers tasked with protecting the empire’s outer borders and their families against invasive troops from across the borders.
“Hydroclimatic extremes have a very direct influence on crop failure and grain storage conditions,” says Kempf. Seed shortages and increased food demand quickly pushed supply systems to their limits. A bad year therefore also had consequences for the future.
The situation was further exacerbated by the choice of cereal crops: people increasingly favored the cultivation of wheat and rice over millet. Kempf can only speculate about the reasons for the agricultural change. Perhaps millet was considered a less prestigious food than wheat and rice. However, these are less climate-resistant than drought-resistant millet and require more water to grow. “As long as there is enough water, this is not a problem, but during prolonged dry periods, shortages occur.” Millet cultivation could perhaps have cushioned these negative effects. As it was, however, the risk of crop failures and famines increased.
These losses could not easily be compensated for by shipments from other parts of the country. This was also because droughts and floods affected supply routes and supply corridors collapsed.
Fleeing from hunger
The malnutrition of the population may ultimately have led to the collapse of border defenses in the north of the empire. “Of course, people were weakened and therefore more vulnerable. Due to the military pressure on the outer border regions, they migrated south, where they believed they would find better conditions,” says Kempf. “This led to political destabilization and is likely to have contributed to the demise of the Tang dynasty.”
However, Kempf emphasizes: “Our results are approximations. The actual conditions at that time cannot be reconstructed with certainty. It’s a complex interplay of many different factors.”
The study concluded that socio-cultural and climatic changes can lead to tipping points in the system because the balance is disrupted. This is a development that could occur more frequently in view of climate change today.
Journal
Communications Earth & Environment
Subject of Research
Not applicable
Article Title
Hydroclimatic instability accelerated the socio-political decline of the Tang Dynasty in northern China
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