Saturday, December 25, 2021

Spanish eruption's end brings 'emotional relief,' rebuilding




 A house is covered by ash from a volcano that continues to erupt on La Palma in Spain's Canary Islands on Oct. 30, 2021. Authorities on a Spanish island are declaring a volcanic eruption that has caused widespread damage but no casualties officially finished, following ten days of no significant sulfur dioxide emissions, lava flows or seismic activity. But the emergency in La Palma, the northwesternmost of the Atlantic Ocean's Canary Islands, is not over yet, said the director of the archipelago’s volcanic emergency committee, or Pevolca, Julio Pérez. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti, File)More

Sat, December 25, 2021

MADRID (AP) — Authorities on one of Spain's Canary Islands declared a volcanic eruption that started in September officially finished Saturday following 10 days of no lava flows, seismic activity or significant sulfur dioxide emissions.

But the emergency in La Palma, the most northwest island in the Atlantic Ocean archipelago, is not over due to the widespread damage the eruption caused, the director of the Canaries' volcanic emergency committee said in announcing the much-anticipated milestone.

“It's not joy or satisfaction - how we can define what we feel? It's an emotional relief. And hope," Pevolca director Julio Pérez said. "Because now, we can apply ourselves and focus completely on the reconstruction work.”

Fiery molten rock flowing down toward the sea destroyed around 3,000 buildings, entombed banana plantations and vineyards, ruined irrigation systems and cut off roads. But no injuries or deaths were directly linked to the eruption.

Pérez, who is also the region’s minister of public administration, justice and security, said the archipelago’s government valued the loss of buildings and infrastructure at more than 900 million euros ($1 billion).

Volcanologists said they needed to certify that three key variables - gas, lava and tremors - had subsided in the Cumbre Vieja ridge for 10 days in order to declare the volcano’s apparent exhaustion. Since the eruption started on Sept. 19, previous periods of reduced activity were followed by reignitions.

On the eve of Dec. 14, the volcano fell silent after flaring for 85 days and 8 hours, making it La Palma's longest eruption on record.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called the eruption's end “the best Christmas present.”

“We will continue working together, all institutions, to relaunch the marvelous island of La Palma and repair the damage," he tweeted.

Farming and tourism are the main industries on the Canary Islands, a popular destination for many European vacationers due to their mild climate.

La Palma volcano eruption declared over after three months of destruction


The Cumbre Vieja volcano in La Palma


Sat, December 25, 2021
By Nathan Allen and Silvio Castellanos

MADRID (Reuters) - Scientists declared the eruption on Spain's La Palma officially over on Saturday, allowing islanders to breathe a sigh of relief nearly 100 days after the Cumbre Vieja volcano began to spew out lava, rock and ash and upended the lives of thousands.

After bursting into action on Sept. 19, the volcano suddenly went quiet on Monday Dec. 13 but the authorities, wary of raising false hope, held off until Christmas Day to give the all-clear.

"What I want to say today can be said with just four words: The eruption is over," Canary Islands regional security chief Julio Perez told a news conference on Saturday.

During the eruption, lava had poured down the mountainside, swallowing up houses, churches and many of the banana plantations that account for nearly half the island's economy. Although property was destroyed, no one was killed.

Maria Jose Blanco, director of the National Geographic Institute on the Canaries, said all indicators suggested the eruption had run out of energy but she did not rule out a future reactivation.

Some 3,000 properties were destroyed by lava that now covers 1,219 hectares - equivalent to roughly 1,500 soccer pitches - according to the final tally by the emergency services.

Of the 7,000 people evacuated, most have returned home but many houses that remain standing are uninhabitable due to ash damage. With many roads blocked, some plantations are now only accessible by sea.

German couple Jacqueline Rehm and Juergen Doelz were among those forced to evacuate, fleeing their rented house in the village of Todoque and moving to their small sail boat for seven weeks.

"We couldn't save anything, none of the furniture, none of my paintings, it's all under the lava now," said Rehm, 49, adding that they would move to nearby Tenerife after Christmas.

"I'm not sure it's really over. I don't trust this beast at all," she said.

The volcanic roar that served as a constant reminder of the eruption may have subsided and islanders no longer have to carry umbrellas and goggles to protect against ash, but a mammoth cleanup operation is only just getting underway.

The government has pledged more than 400 million euros ($453 million) for reconstruction but some residents and businesses have complained that funds are slow to arrive.



 Lava flows as volcano continues to erupt on the Canary island of La Palma, Spain, on Nov. 29, 2021. Authorities on a Spanish island are declaring a volcanic eruption that has caused widespread damage but no casualties officially finished, following ten days of no significant sulfur dioxide emissions, lava flows or seismic activity. But the emergency in La Palma, the northwesternmost of the Atlantic Ocean's Canary Islands, is not over yet, said the director of the archipelago’s volcanic emergency committee, or Pevolca, Julio Pérez. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti, File)

Spain declares end to La Palma volcano eruption

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has described the end of the eruption on the tiny Canary island as the "best Christmas present." The volcano flared for more than 85 days, causing nearly €1 billion in damage.



The volcano on La Palma erupted for 85 days and 8 hours, making it the island's longest eruption on record 

The volcanic eruption on the Spanish island of La Palma has been declared over, more than three months after it began, officials said Saturday.

The announcement followed 10 days of low-level activity from the Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma — one of the Canary Islands, just off Africa's northwest coast.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called the news "the best Christmas present."

The eruption on September 19 sent ash plumes containing toxic gases into the air and created rivers of molten rock that crashed into the sea.

More than 2,900 properties — homes, schools, churches and health centers — along with large swathes of farmland were damaged, at an estimated cost of €900 million ($1 billion).

No injuries or deaths have been reported but thousands of people were evacuated.

The eruption — which was accompanied by frequent earthquakes — was the first on La Palma since 1971.


A photo from November of red-hot lava flowing down a mountain near someone's home

Record for longest eruption

The volcano fell silent on the evening of December 14 after flaring for 85 days and 8 hours, making it the island's longest eruption on record.  

"We will continue working together, all the institutions, to relaunch the wonderful island of La Palma and repair the damage caused," Sanchez tweeted on Saturday.    

His government has so far promised €225 million to fund recovery efforts, including temporary housing and financial assistance to people who lost their jobs.

A spokesperson for the Canaries' volcanic emergency committee Miguel Angel Morcuende tempered the good news, stressing that the volcano remains unpredictable and could suddenly become active again.

"It's not joy or satisfaction — how we can define what we feel? It's an emotional relief. And hope," Julio Perez, the emergency committee's director, said. "Because now, we can apply ourselves and focus completely on the rebuilding work.''


Nearly three thousands buildings, including many homes, were destroyed or damaged by the lava flow from the volcano

Residents return home

People returning to their homes were told to open their windows to make sure any toxic gas that had accumulated could escape, state broadcaster RTVE reported.

The lava will also take a long time to cool to a safe level.

Experts have warned it will take several years to clean up the land destroyed by the lava and remove huge amounts of ash from buildings and roads.

Soldiers from an emergency unit have been removing ash from rooftops to prevent buildings from collapsing.

La Palma is roughly 35 kilometers (22 miles) long and 20 kilometers (12 miles) wide at its broadest point.

Farming and tourism are the main industries on the Canary Islands, a popular destination for many European vacationers due to their warm climate, especially in winter.

Another volcanic eruption, the longest in Iceland in 50 years, was also declared over this week.

The flareup began on March 19 on the outskirts of Mount Fagradalsfjall, about 30 kilometers southwest of the capital Reykjavik.

mm/aw AFP, AP, dpa

Spain declares volcano eruption on La

Palma island over after 3 destructive

months

Lava swallowed up houses, churches, many banana

 plantations on the island but no deaths

WHAT ABOUT THE DOGS (AND OTHER ANIMALS) LEFT BEHIND?!
An aerial view of the Cumbre Vieja volcano on the Canary Island of La Palma in Spain on Dec. 16. On Saturday, scientists declared the volcano's eruption, which has ebbed and flowed since it first began spewing lava in September, to be over. (Jorge Guerrero/AFP/Getty Images)

Scientists declared the eruption on La Palma in Spain officially over on Saturday, allowing islanders to breathe a sigh of relief nearly 100 days after the Cumbre Vieja volcano began to spew out lava, rock and ash, and upended the lives of thousands.

After bursting into action on Sept. 19, the volcano suddenly went quiet on Dec. 13, but the authorities, wary of raising false hope, held off until Christmas Day to give the all-clear.

"What I want to say today can be said with just four words: The eruption is over," Julio Perez, the Canary Islands regional security chief, told a news conference on Saturday.

During the eruption, lava had poured down the mountainside, swallowing up houses, churches and many of the banana plantations that account for nearly half the island's economy. Although property was destroyed, no one was killed.

WATCH | See volcano spew gas, lava earlier this month: 
More lava and toxic gas are spewing from the volcano on the Spanish island of La Palma, 80 days into its eruption. Since Sept. 19, more than 2,800 buildings have been completely destroyed. (Credit:IGME-CSIC) 0:50

Maria Jose Blanco, director of the National Geographic Institute on the Canaries, said all indicators suggested the eruption had run out of energy, but she did not rule out a future reactivation.

Long rebuilding ahead

Some 3,000 properties were destroyed by lava that now covers 1,219 hectares — equivalent to roughly 1,500 soccer pitches — according to the final tally by the emergency services.

Of the 7,000 people evacuated, most have returned home, but many houses that remain standing are uninhabitable due to ash damage. With many roads blocked, some plantations are now only accessible by sea.

The volcano, pictured from El Paso, spews lava on Dec. 13. The eruption forced thousands out of their homes as the lava burned its way across huge swaths of land on the western side of La Palma. (Pierre-Philippe Marcou/AFP/Getty Images)

German couple Jacqueline Rehm and Juergen Doelz were among those forced to evacuate, fleeing their rented house in the village of Todoque and moving to their small sail boat for seven weeks.

"We couldn't save anything — none of the furniture, none of my paintings, it's all under the lava now," said Rehm, 49, adding they would move to nearby Tenerife after Christmas.

"I'm not sure it's really over. I don't trust this beast at all."

The volcanic roar that served as a constant reminder of the eruption may have subsided, and islanders no longer have to carry umbrellas and goggles to protect against ash. But a mammoth cleanup operation is only just getting underway.

The government has pledged more than 400 million euros ($580 million Cdn) for reconstruction, but some residents and businesses have complained that funds are slow to arrive.

See images from the September and October eruptions:
1 of 19

A second 4.5-magnitude earthquake in two days has rattled the Spanish island of La Palma — the strongest to hit the Canary Island off northwest Africa since the Cumbre Vieja volcano erupted Sept. 19. Rivers of molten rock that scientists described on Friday as 'a true lava tsunami' forced the evacuation of more than 300 people late Thursday. About 7,000 people in all have had to flee since the eruption. Here, civil guards point out the volcano during their patrol outside the exclusion area in the municipality of Los Llanos de Aridane on Oct. 15. 
Sergio Perez/Reuters



Lebanon's top Christian party signals possible end of Hezbollah alliance


Lebanon's caretaker Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil 
is seen after a news conference in Beirut

Thu, December 23, 2021

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Lebanon's top Christian party has indicated it is considering ending a political alliance with Iran-backed Hezbollah, threatening a fragile union that has shaped Lebanese politics for nearly 16 years.

Gebran Bassil, leader of the Free Patriotic Movement party said earlier this week there would be "political consequences" for action taken against his party by Lebanon's two main Shiite parties Hezbollah and Amal.

Prominent figures close to the party have also said the 2006 Mar Mikhael Agreement between FPM and Hezbollah is at an end.


"Mikhael is dead," FPM pundit Charbel Khalil tweeted on Tuesday.

The party's support was critical in bringing President Michel Aoun, the FPM's founder, to power in 2016, and the FPM has provided critical Christian political cover for Hezbollah's armed presence under Lebanon's sectarian power-sharing system.

Hezbollah has not publicly commented.

Pro-Hezbollah Sheikh Sadiq Al-Nabulsi said on Wednesday that Hezbollah had "a very high tolerance for pain and criticism" but Bassil was at risk of losing its support.

"Today the FPM has no real ally other than Hezbollah, so why are you letting go of your last ally?" he said.

Bassil's party has faced growing political pressure to distance itself from Hezbollah since the country's 2019 financial meltdown.

Traditional allies in the Arab Gulf have been unwilling to provide Lebanon with aid, as they have in the past, because of what they have said is Hezbollah's grip on the country and its support for Iran-backed Houthi rebels battling Saudi-backed forces in Yemen.

The group is classified by the United States and major western nations as a terrorist group.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah has taken a hardline stance against the judge investigating the August 2020 Beirut blast, causing a row that has left Prime Minister Najib Mikati's government unable to meet since Oct. 12 even as poverty and hunger worsen.

But Hezbollah remains Bassil's strongest ally. And with presidential and parliamentary elections due next year, some analysts say the FPM could be posturing.

"The FPM is stuck between a rock and a hard place today. they certainly realise that the Christian street no longer condones any form of acquiescence to Hezbollah's demands," said Karim Emile Bitar, director of the Institute of Political science at Beirut's Saint Joseph University.

"But they simply cannot afford to completely let go of this alliance because it would ruin Bassil's presidential ambitions and would certainly prevent them from getting a significant parliamentary bloc."

(Reporting by Timour Azhari Editing by Barbara Lewis)



Melting Arctic ice will have catastrophic effects on the world, experts say. Here's how.


Melting Arctic ice will have catastrophic effects on the world, experts say. Here's how.

JULIA JACOBO
Fri, December 24, 2021

If there is any doubt about climate change, look no further than the coldest regions of the planet for proof that the planet is warming at unprecedented rates, experts say.

The Arctic, is heating up twice as fast as the rest of the world, according to this year's Arctic Report Card, released last week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The phenomenon, known as Arctic amplification, occurs when the sea ice, which is white, thins or disappears, allowing dark ocean or land surfaces to absorb more heat from the sun and release that energy back into the atmosphere.

Widely considered by polar scientists as Earth's refrigerator due to its role in regulating global temperatures, the mass melting of sea ice, permafrost and ice caps in the Arctic is hard evidence of global warming, according to experts.


"The Arctic is the frontline for climate change," climate scientist Jessica Moerman, vice president of science and policy at the Evangelical Environmental Network, a faith-based environmental group, told ABC News. "We should be paying careful attention to what is happening in the Arctic. It may seem like it's far away, but the impacts come knocking on our front door."

MORE: The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world, according to NOAA report

Here is how melting in the Arctic could have detrimental effects around the globe, according to experts:

Coastal communities will eventually need to move inland

The biggest long-term effect of warming in the Arctic will be sea level rise, Oscar Schofield, a professor of biological oceanography at Rutgers University, told ABC News.

Melting from he Arctic -- and the Greenland ice sheet in particular -- is the largest contributor to sea level rise in the world. Although the contribution from the Greenland ice sheet is less than a millimeter per year of rising sea level, those small increments add up to between 6 inches to a foot since the Industrial Revolution -- sea levels that infrastructure near oceans was not built to withstand, Schofield said.

A bit "counterintuitively," the loss from the Greenland ice sheet will have its greatest impact on places far away from the Arctic, in low latitudes such as South America due to changes in the global ocean currents, Twila Moon, an Arctic scientist with the National Snow and Ice Data Center and one of the authors of the Arctic Report Card, told ABC News.


PHOTO: A drop of water falls off an iceberg melting in the Nuup Kangerlua Fjord near Nuuk in southwestern Greenland, Aug. 1, 2017. (David Goldman/AP, FILE)

Sea level rise from melting and continued climate change will exacerbate coastal erosion, flood areas that had previously never seen flooding and even increase inland flooding as the salty ocean waters change groundwater tables and inundate freshwater resources, Moon said.

"If you look at where humanity lives, a great proportion of humanity lives right at the coastlines around the world," he said. "And if you look at where most of the big, mega cities are, they're right along coastlines: New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco."

MORE: Polar bears are inbreeding due to melting sea ice, posing risk to survival of the species, scientists say

Global weather systems will shift drastically


The environmental conditions in the Arctic affect weather systems across the world. The North and South poles act as the "freezers of the global system," helping to circulate ocean waters around the planet in a way that helps to maintain the climates felt on land, Moon said.

"What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic," Moerman said.

The jet stream, a band of strong winds moving west to east created by cold air meeting warmer air, helps to regulate weather around the globe. In the continental U.S., the jet stream forms where generally colder and drier Arctic air meets warmer and more humid air from the Gulf.

But as temperatures in the Arctic warm, the jet stream, which is fueled by the temperature differences, weakens, Moerman said. Rather than a steady stream of winds, the jet stream has become more "wavy," allowing very warm temperatures to extend usually far into the Arctic and very cold temperatures further south than usual, Moon said.

"These cold air outbreaks are really severe," Moerman said.

The variability in the climate in the Arctic, specifically the weakening of the polar vortex, which keeps cold air closer to the poles, likely led to the Texas freeze in February that led to millions without power and hundreds of deaths, a study published in Science in September found.

The study cited an "increasingly frequent number of episodes of extremely cold winter weather over the past four decades" in the U.S., despite temperatures rising overall.


PHOTO: Icebergs and the edge of the ice sheet are seen at the
 west coast close to Tasiilaq, Greenland, Sept. 17, 2021.
 (Hannibal Hanschke/Reuters, FILE)

Scientists are also looking into whether the phenomenon of atmospheric blocking, is potentially linked with extreme summer or winter weather that occurs when the jet stream ebbs and causes weather patterns to stagnate over a period of time, Moon said.

That stagnation was likely the cause of the extreme flooding that occurred in 2017 in Houston, when the system from Hurricane Harvey remained over the region for days, dumping more than 50 inches of rain, and the multiple heatwaves that blanketed much of the Pacific Northwest this past summer, Moerman added.

"These have real-world impacts, whenever extreme cold air leaks out of the Arctic, because of that weakening polar vortex," Moerman said. "And it goes into areas that are not prepared for that extreme weather."

However, despite the existing evidence, more research needs to be done to further establish the link between the weakening polar vortex and extreme weather, Moerman said.

MORE: What to know about the rapid melting of the Greenland ice sheet, a significant contributor to rising sea levels

Shipping lanes will open

Melting sea ice in the Arctic is opening up lanes in the ocean for the global trade route -- lanes that were previously blocked.

In the near future, the melting will have a big impacts on major shipping laws, Schofield said.

"They're no longer going to be sending ships all the way down to the Panama Canal," he said. "They're going to go directly through the Arctic. And so it's going to change commerce, and have very large economic impacts."

PHOTO: The Russian '50 Years of Victory' nuclear-powered icebreaker is seen at the North Pole on Aug. 18, 2021. (Ekaterina Anisimova/AFP via Getty Images, FILE)

But access has the potential to become a "hotbed for new conflict" as nations fight for control over the newly emerged routes, Moerman said.

"There's a lot of effort by countries to really try to claim as much territory as they can right now, because there's likely going to be a huge host of economic incentives to go to this new area and harvest what you can," Schofield said.

Some national security implications could occur as a result of the warming as well, as ice melts and opens up previously blocked landmasses, Moerman added. The U.S. Department of Defense will likely need to restructure its defense profile in the Arctic when there is no longer an ice cap for much of the year, Schofield said.
The pristine ecosystem will likely be ruined

As the woes from a stalled supply chain continue, the ability for shipping containers to utilize more routes in the absence of ice could appear to be beneficial for the world economy.

But it would spell disaster for the regional environment.

Right now, the ecosystem in the Arctic is pristine and untouched, and there are several unique species and ecosystems that have acclimated to the presence of ice, Schofield said.

But as more ships come in and out of the region, the chances that large-scale environmental degradation will occur is high, Moerman said.

"We're definitely seeing changes in animal populations," Moon said. "Certainly animals that depend on sea ice as a primary habitat, as we've lost the vast majority of our thicker sea ice."

PHOTO: A view of icebergs and melting pack ice in Ilulissat icefjord, an UNESCO World Heritage Site, in Ilulissat, Greenland.
 (Sergio Pitamitz/VWPics via AP Images, FILE)

The "poster child" for the effects of the loss of sea ice on species is the polar bear, Schofield said. Polar bear populations have dwindled so low, and the habitats have become so fragmented, that the animals are inbreeding, which could have disastrous effects on the survival of the species within generations.

In Alaska, the number of beaver ponds has doubled since 2000, likely due to the warming trend that has resulted in widespread greening in what was previously tundra, the Arctic Report Card found. The rapid acidification of the warming ocean waters is likely affecting the marine food chain, Moon said. And the increased marine traffic for both fishing and shipping is also likely affecting stress levels and behavior of species, including how they communicate, Moon added.

In addition to an increased chance of oil spills from increased commercial activity is the possibility of new oil and gas fields opening up in Russian territory could further amplify global warming as those natural gases are extracted, Moerman said.

"The question is, is can we get those policies and strategies set up now before there's this massive sort of gold rush on the Arctic Ocean?" Schofield said.

Melting permafrost in the Arctic also poses natural environmental risks, Moon said. The majority of the ground in the Arctic is frozen, and as it thaws, microbes and other living organisms within the organic carbon in the permafrost begin to wake up, releasing carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere.

Temperatures need to be below 0 degrees Celsius to grow and maintain ice, Schofield said. But we will likely never regain that ice, as it took thousands of years of snow layers accumulating on top of each other to create the massive ice sheet, which is several miles thick.

"At some point, we're likely to cross the line where, you know, there'll be almost no winter to speak up," Schofield said. "And we see these kinds of effects in these polar regions, like the Arctic and the Antarctic."

Melting Arctic ice will have catastrophic effects on the world, experts say. Here's how. originally appeared on abcnews.go.com
Commentary: Water may soon be a tradable commodity on markets

"A globally integrated market for fresh water within 25-30 years" was predicted by this American professor a decade ago, and it is currently on track to becoming an accurate prediction.

Water flows in the Taynoye Reservoir near the city of Kholmsk, Sakhalin Island, in Russia's Far East, (Photo: AP/Igor Dudkovskiy)


Willem H Buiter
25 Dec 2021

NEW YORK CITY: Just over a decade ago, I predicted the arrival of water as an asset class.

I foresaw a massive expansion of investment in the water sector, including the production of fresh, clean water from other sources (desalination, purification), storage, shipping, and transportation of water


This would result in a globally integrated market for fresh water within 25 to 30 years. Once the spot markets for water are integrated, futures markets and other derivative water-based financial instruments – puts, calls, swaps – both exchange-traded and OTC (over-the-counter) will follow.

There will be different grades and types of fresh water, just the way we have light sweet and heavy sour crude oil today.

In fact, I believed that water would eventually be the single most important physical-commodity-based asset class, dwarfing oil, copper, agricultural commodities, and precious metals.

Ten years later, the future is now – though not quite what I expected.

A FUTURES MARKET IN WATER

In December 2020, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group created the first futures market in water. Cash-settled water futures with a maximum contract period of two years are now traded on the CME Globex electronic trading system.

I view this development as somewhat premature. For futures markets (and markets for other derivatives like put and call options) to function properly, the underlying spot market – in this case the spot market for physical water or water rights – should be liquid and transparent.

CME Group’s futures market is based on the Nasdaq Veles California Water Index, which tracks the cash price of physical water rights in California, based on transactions in surface water and in four groundwater markets.

Because the local and regional water supplies often are not connected, let alone fully integrated, the spot market underlying the futures market is too segmented; it does not represent a single, homogeneous commodity or asset.

Today’s spot markets for water and water rights thus are too illiquid and non-transparent to support an economically and socially useful futures market.

But there is hope. The regional and global integration of physical water supplies – and the associated spot markets for water and water rights – is making spectacular progress.

NEW PROJECTS IN WATER SHOW A BRIGHTER FUTURE

Two ongoing developments stand out. One is Project Greenland, created and sponsored by Thomas Schumann Capital, in partnership with North Atlantic Research and Survey.

Under its Iceberg Management and Water Extraction Programme, suitable free-floating North Atlantic icebergs weighing 1.2-1.4 million tonnes are towed to an operational location in Scotland, where the ice and water are prepared for international transportation.

The target markets are in the water-deprived Middle East and North Africa. The project is scalable and relies on established technologies and infrastructures being deployed in an innovative and disruptive manner.

Given time, additional technological advances, and proper spot-water pricing, icebergs from Antarctica also could become viable sources of fresh water.

A second fascinating entrant to the global water markets is SkyH2O’s Atmospheric Water Generation (AWG) system, a proprietary technology that extracts clean fresh water from the atmosphere.

The business model here is flexible and scalable, because AWG capacity can be deployed in a distributed manner to reach the ultimate customers, be they governments, households, or industrial, commercial, and agricultural users.

Its cost effectiveness, relative to alternatives like desalination and distillation, depends on atmospheric humidity and the price of energy in the proximity of the customers.
A drop of water falls off an iceberg melting in the Nuup Kangerlua Fjord in southwestern Greenland, Tuesday Aug. 1, 2017. (AP Photo/David Goldman, File)

The future of water as a significant asset class depends on the willingness of governments – and ultimately of society at large – to price water at its long-run social marginal cost as a scarce renewable resource (including the cost of addressing the negative environmental externalities associated with its production and distribution).

Globally, over 70 per cent of fresh water is used in agriculture, and most of this usage is either free or heavily subsidised. Households in many countries also pay but a small fraction of the long-run social marginal cost of the water they use.

GROWING RECOGNITION OF FRESHWATER SCARCITY

I hope and expect that both these anomalies will soon end. There is growing recognition of deepening freshwater scarcity crises around the world, as well as a greater willingness on the part of policymakers to price negative environmental externalities appropriately.

To recognise water as a scarce renewable resource, a tradable commodity, and a marketable asset is not to diminish its unique significance as a good that is essential to life and viewed by many as a gift from God.

When socially efficient water pricing creates economic hardship, an appropriate fiscal response through targeted income support is required. If this fails – perhaps because the state cannot identify who is adversely affected by proper water pricing – a two-tier tariff may be required.

While a social subsistence level of water should be provided for free or at a heavily subsidised price, all additional water usage could be priced at its full long-run social marginal cost to preserve the right incentives.

Water is indeed becoming an asset class. Give it another decade, and exchange-traded funds for water and water rights will be part of the new normal for investors.

Willem H Buiter is a visiting professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University.

 PROJECT SYNDICATE.

ECOCIDE

Viewer photos, videos show what happened when fire erupted at Baytown's ExxonMobil refinery

New study reveals intensified housing inequality in Canada from 1981 to 2016
















Neoliberal housing policies and financialization over the past four decades has helped transform housing in Canada from human necessity to an investment opportunity.

 (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick)

December 23, 2021 

Driven by the neoliberal belief in the superiority of the free market, the housing policy in Canada has shifted from a welfare-oriented policy to a market-oriented one over the past four decades, encouraging home ownership, deregulation and private consumption.

Housing financialization, the transformation of housing from a human right to an investment opportunity, has been driven by the federal government primarily through financial market deregulation and a financial practice called mortgage securitization.

Much of the debate about the housing crisis has focused on the market imbalance between supply and demand, citing factors such as foreign investment and lack of market supply. However, many housing problems today need to be viewed in the historical context of the housing system restructuring, which keeps housing and wealth inequality alive and well.

Using the historical census data of five metropolitan areas — Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Edmonton and Calgary — from 1981 to 2016, our study reveals deeply entrenched housing inequality in accessing affordable housing in the post-1990s neoliberal era. Both neoliberal housing policies and housing financialization are important contributors to this intensified housing inequality.

Canada’s housing system: from welfare to neoliberal regime

Until the mid-1980s, Canada had a welfare housing regime with strong state intervention in social housing supply — first in the form of public housing financed and managed by the government, then in community housing developed by a mix of community groups with government funding and finance.

This welfare-oriented regime was transformed into a neoliberal regime in the 1990s, when the federal government moved away from social housing and started relying primarily on the private sector for housing supply.

Federal expenditure on housing programs dropped from nearly 1.5 per cent in 1981 to slightly over 0.6 per cent of the total federal expenditure in 2016. Since then, the social housing sector has become more “core-needs” targeted, supporting people with special needs and leaving those in need of independent social housing to the private market.

Bill C-66 helped channel household savings into increasingly expensive housing markets, boosting housing demand and driving financial capital into the housing market.
 (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang)

The 2000s marked the start of housing financialization in Canada. In 1999, responding to the demands of consumers and the financial sector, the federal government introduced Bill C-66 that aimed to turn the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) from home-builder to mortgage-insurer. With easier access to credits and lower interest rates, household savings were channelled into increasingly expensive housing markets, boosting housing demand and attracting financial capital into the profitable housing market.

More Canadian households face affordability problems over time


The neoliberalization of housing policy came with increased housing inequality. One outcome of housing financialization is the increase in residential mortgage debt to finance housing. The residential mortgage debt to GDP ratio rose from 26 per cent, to a whopping 68 per cent between 1981 and 2016.

Our study uses the shelter-costs-to-income ratio (CIR) to assess housing affordability. Overall, the average CIRs across these five census metropolitan areas fluctuated modestly between 25 per cent and 33 per cent throughout the census years. Yet, more Canadian households have experienced housing unaffordability problems over time. The share of renter households that spend more than 30 per cent of their income on housing increased from 35 per cent to 42 per cent between 1986 and 2016. These numbers for owners increased from 14 per cent to 22 per cent during the same period.


Chart showing the share of renter and owner households that spend more than 30 per cent of income on housing. (Statistics Canada)


Greater inequality in accessing affordable housing in the neoliberal era


The more commodified a housing sector, the more access to housing one would expect to have, contingent on an individual’s economic status rather than citizenship. Indeed, the gap in affordable housing access between income groups has enlarged in Canada.

After taking factors such as household type and size and socio-demographic characteristics into consideration, we estimated that the average CIR for high-income households dropped from 46 per cent for low to middle-income income households, to 40 per cent post-2001. This suggests a greater gap in accessing affordable housing determined by income, and a more commodified housing sector in the neoliberal era.
Chart illustrating the predicted shelter-costs-to-income ratio of high-income households to low and medium-income households. (Author provided)

The reduced federal expenditure on social housing and increasing residential-debt-to-GDP ratio, induced by housing financialization, shows significant effects on the rising housing unaffordability, among other macroeconomic factors such as GDP growth and unemployment rates.

While the withdrawal of the federal funding increased housing costs for both income groups, housing financialization exacerbated housing unaffordability only for low to middle-income households, while benefiting high-income households by improving housing affordability for them. This reflects the private market’s incluination to respond to the housing demand of those with stronger purchasing power, leading to reduced housing supply for those at the bottom of the income ladder and reinforcing housing inequality between the two income groups.

The vulnerability of low-income renters and young homeowners

Housing commodification and financialization in the neoliberal era have had uneven impacts on Canadian households. Low to middle-income renters at all ages appear to encounter housing affordability stress, although their CIR remains relatively stable over time.

In contrast, the CIR for low to middle-income homeowners increased substantially over time. Young homeowners are the worst off due to easier access to mortgage loans and slow income improvement, representing a new form of housing vulnerability. While high-income homeowners have also experienced rising CIR over time, their CIR remain well below 30 per cent. High-income renters have seen improved affordability over the years.


Chart showing predicted shelter-costs-to-income ratio by age, tenure and income, 1981-2016. Low-income renters and low-income young homeowners are disproportionately impacted by rising housing unaffordability. (Author provided)

Housing gaps widest among women and immigrants

There are significant housing affordability gaps between different gender and immigrant groups. These disparities do exist regardless of housing tenure, but they were only present among low to middle-income households. While established immigrants tend to catch up with native-born Canadians, the gender gap persists among low-income households, regardless of immigrant status. This implies the existence of systemic barriers in low-income female-led households, such as male bias in the design and planning of the residential spaces in social housing.


Chart demonstrating predicted shelter-costs-to-income ratio in 2016 by sex, income and immigrant status for renters (a) and owners (b). Low-income recent immigrants and low-income female-led households are disadvantaged in affordable housing access. (Author provided)

Overall, Canada’s housing section is highly commodified, with income playing a major role in accessing affordable housing. To date, housing policies have mainly focused on market solutions, such as discouraging foreign investment or encouraging the market supply of affordable housing. However, the intensified market mechanism resulting from neoliberal housing policies has widened the housing disparity gap between the haves and the have-nots.

State institutions have been utilized and transformed to facilitate, rather than limit, the commodification and financialization of housing. It is vital for public policies to recognize the state as part of the housing problem and shift the policy narratives around housing unaffordability from simply a market disequilibrium problem, to a failure of state institutions.


Author
Yushu Zhu
Assistant Professor, Faculty of Urban Studies and Public Policy, Simon Fraser University
Disclosure statement
Yushu Zhu receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.
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Simon Fraser University provides funding as a member of The Conversation CA-FR.

Provinces' next step on building small nuclear reactors to come in the new year

Alberta joined Saskatchewan, Ontario and New Brunswick

in team effort to harness nuclear energy

Four provinces are exploring how to harness nuclear energy. Clockwise from top left are Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, Ontario Premier Doug Ford, New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs and Alberta Premier Jason Kenney. (CBC)

Alberta's ministry of energy says the four provinces cooperating on nuclear reactor technology are aiming to release their strategic plan in the new year. 

In August 2020, Alberta announced it would join Saskatchewan, Ontario and New Brunswick on a pre-existing memorandum of understanding to explore and eventually develop small reactors.

The small modular reactor (SMR) strategic plan, a collaboration between the four provinces, is in development now and Alberta says it's planning for the details to be released shortly. 

"[The] provinces are aiming to release the plan in early 2022," Jennifer Henshaw, Energy Minister Sonya Savage's press secretary, said in a statement. 

The group released a feasibility study in April which found SMRs could help Canada improve its domestic energy security and aid in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The upcoming strategic plan was originally expected to be completed in the spring of 2021. 

Nuclear energy works by splitting atoms, which creates heat that can then be harnessed and turned into electricity. 

"If you're going to get to net zero [emissions], there is no way to do this without nuclear. And given the importance of the oil sands in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, this may be the opportunity," Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Mount Royal University who is also an expert in Canada's history with nuclear energy, said. 

Canada has committed to reaching that net zero target by 2050. 

The operation of SMRs doesn't produce carbon emissions. However, its status as a fully clean energy has been criticized due to the dangers of disposing the radioactive waste. 

Federal government looking at national nuclear supply chain

This fall the federal government put out a tender to study how Alberta and Saskatchewan could contribute to a national nuclear supply chain. 

"Alberta Energy was engaged by Prairies Economic Development Canada (PrairiesCan) for the development of their SMR Supply Chain Study project," Henshaw said. 

"Alberta Energy, the Alberta Utilities Commission and the Alberta Energy Regulator will be working together to identify and address potential areas of overlap, uncertainty and duplication between federal and provincial regulatory regimes."

Traditional nuclear reactors used in Canada can typically generate about 800 megawatts of electricity, or about enough to power 600,000 homes at once, assuming one megawatt can power about 750 homes. The term SMR, on the other hand, is applied to units that produce less than 300 megawatts of electric output. Some SMRs are small enough to fit into a school gym.

No SMRs have been built yet, but Ontario Power Generation says it's on track to have two established by 2028. A Saskatchewan report estimates it will have SMRs by 2032. The small reactors are cheaper and require less complex engineering.

SMRs could have the capacity to provide largely emission-free energy to oilsands facilities, according to a roadmap prepared last year by an intergovernmental committee and industry stakeholders. It warns that cost and regulatory hurdles could be serious roadblocks.

"I haven't heard Alberta-based oil and gas companies being so bullish on nuclear before. And so this is industry led, not government led," Bratt said.

He added collaboration between the provincial and federal governments is also essential, because while electricity is Alberta's jurisdiction, nuclear is in the national purview.

With files from Sarah Rieger and Hannah Kost