Israel detains thousands in solitary confinement despite health risks, study finds

February 24, 2022 

Palestinians take part in a demonstration demanding the release of Palestinian prisoner in Israeli jail Hisham Abu Hawash, who has been on a hunger strike for 141 days, in front of International Committee of the Red Cross building in Ramallah, West Bank on January 04, 2022. 

[Issam Rimawi - Anadolu Agency]

February 24, 2022 

Thousands of detainees are forced into isolation for years, including minors, by the Israel Prison Service (IPS), according to the NGO Physicians for Human Rights.

Figures published by the prison service reveal 1,587 inmates had been held in complete solitary confinement in the first ten months of 2021, including 66 minors.

By the end of August of the same year, another 1,134 prisoners, among whom 53 were minors, were held in "individual seclusion" or "two-person seclusion".

Forms of isolation are considered psychological torture prohibited under Article 1 of the 1984 Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment. It is also inhumane and degrading behaviour prohibited under Article 7 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.

READ: Israel's oppression of Palestinian prisoners may lead to protests, experts warn

Palestinian prisoners and detainees are held in solitary confinement as a disciplinary measure, or in isolation, for reasons of state, prison or prisoner's security, authorities claim. Some are forced to carry out large parts of their sentence in such detention.

The figures provided by the prison service also indicate how long prisoners were held in "seclusion."

Of the 1,134 prisoners, 63 inmates were held for more than two months, reported Haaretz, 17 were held for a period of more than six months, 19 were held for a period between one and three years and 18 prisoners were held in seclusion for over three years.

The Israeli authorities have established special isolation units in many of their prisons, most notably Nafha Prison opened in 1980, Nitzan-Ramle opened in 1989 and in Beersheba, opened in 1992.

Anat Litvin, who oversees the department for incarcerated persons within Physicians for Human Rights, said:

The prison service is holding hundreds of inmates in solitary conditions, with full knowledge of the destructive impact it can have on their health.

The stats were compared to the year 2020, which exposed that the number of prisoners confined in solitary confinement was not unusual. In 2020, 1,979 inmates were held in solitary confinement, among them 88 minors, and 2,015 inmates, 64 of whom were minors, were held in seclusion.

Frustrated at the lack of cooperation regarding Israel's prison service's response to its freedom of information request, Litvin added: "Although the prison service said it had manually reviewed over 1,100 inmate files in its response to the request, it could not provide data as to the number of inmates held in solitary confinement."

"They also could not determine who or how many among them suffer from psychiatric illnesses and are under psychiatric care, which would place them among one of the at-risk groups whose solitary confinement is banned by the United Nations."

This led NGO Physicians for Human Rights to conclude that, "In the best case, the prison service is trying to prevent the requested information from emerging and in the worst case, it is not conducting proper follow-up for prisoners held in solitary conditions, and knowingly putting their health at risk."

Hundreds of Palestinians have been held in solitary confinement by Israel, to the extent that the policy is now part of the systematic approach approved by the legislature and implemented by the executive. Palestinian women are not excluded from this inhumane policy.

Israel is holding more than 4,500 Palestinian prisoners in its prisons, including 41 women and 140 children, all of whom are subject to the policy of isolation and are thus cut off from the outside world, which constitutes a form of psychological torture.

Iranian prisoner dies of 'joy' after death penalty commuted

February 21, 2022 

Iranian police in Tehran, Iran on June 7, 2017 

[Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu Agency]

February 21, 2022

An Iranian man suffered a deadly heart attack after learning that he no longer faced the death penalty for a murder he committed 18 years ago, the state-run Hamshahri newspaper reported yesterday.

The paper said 55-year-old Akbar, who hails from southern Iran, was arrested 18 years ago on charges of premeditated murder.

After learning that the victim's family had pardoned him and that he no longer faced the death penalty, Akbar suffered a heart attack as a result of being "overjoyed" and died, the paper said.

The paper quoted sources familiar with the case as saying that Akbar had spent all these years in fear of being executed for committing the murder at the age of 37.

The sources added that officials in the state's dispute resolution board were able to convince the victim's family to pardon him, but he died before being released.

Updated on 22 February 2022 at 12.15GMT to clarify that the death sentence had been commuted not abolished.

Israel releases Palestinian hunger strikers

February 25, 2022

Palestinians in Gaza stand in solidarity with hunger striker Hisham Abu Hawash on 5 January 2022 [Mohammed Asad/Middle East Monitor]

February 25, 2022 


Palestinian detainees Hisham Abu Hawash and Miqdad Al-Qawasmi returned home yesterday, after winning a battle against the Israeli prison service that saw them carry out hunger strikes for over 110 days.

Moments after being released, however, Al-Qawasmi, who has been arrested by occupation forces several times and has spent a total of about four years in Israeli prisons, was re-arrested by occupation forces. He was held for several hours before being allowed to return to his family.

Both former detainees, Wafa reported, received a celebratory welcome from their families and friends.

Father of five Abu Hawash, 40, from the town of Dura, west of Hebron city in the south of the West Bank was arrested in October 2020 and went on hunger strike for 141 days in protest of being held under administrative detention – without charge or trial.

READ: 24th day of Palestinian administrative detainees' boycott of Israel courts

He was hospitalised but refused medical treatment. After days of protests by Palestinians calling for his release, and mounting fears in Israel of widespread unrest if he died in custody, the Israeli government yielded on 5 January and agreed to release in February. He then ended his hunger strike.

Al-Qawasmi also launched a hunger strike for 113 days in protest of his administrative detention, during which his weight nearly halved until Israeli prison authorities agreed to release him in February.

He was arrested in January last year. An Israeli security official claimed his administrative detention was "well-founded on intelligence that was presented to a court" regarding his involvement in activity linked to Palestinian resistance group, Hamas.

Israel detains about 4,500 Palestinians, including about 500 prisoners in administrative detention, an Israeli procedure that allows the Israeli authorities to detain a person without charge for renewable periods of six months.

France to ban two Palestine solidarity groups

February 25, 2022 

Demonstrators hold a placard reading "Palestine Habibi my love" (top) during a demonstration against Israel's military operations in Gaza and in support of the Palestinian people, on 2 August, 2014 in Paris [KENZO TRIBOUILLARD/AFP via Getty Images]

February 25, 2022 

France's Interior Minister announced that he is banning two Palestine solidarity organisations at the request of French President, Emmanuel Macron.

Gerald Darmanin tweeted yesterday that he will move to dissolve Palestine Vaincra (Palestine Will Win) and Comité Palestine Action (Palestine Action Committee).

"Under the cover of supporting the Palestinian cause, the government accuses the groups of promoting hatred of Israel," French newspaper, Europe 1, reported.

Established in 2019, Palestine Vaincra is accused by the government "of calling for hatred, discrimination and violence."

Darmanin added that France is also accusing it of ties with the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, a group banned by the Israeli occupation.

This comes after a series of "dissolutions" imposed by the French State, including an order to dissolve the Collective Against Islamophobia in France, as well as various leftist and anti-racist organisations.

In response, Palestine Vaincra denounced the move as "an attack against the solidarity movement towards Palestine and all anti-racist forces."

READ: German news agency accused of 'weaponising' anti-Semitism in sacking of journalists

In a statement, its spokesperson, Tom Martin, said, "We condemn this announcement in the strongest terms and are preparing a legal and political response."

Palestine Vaincra is part of Samidoun, the Palestinian Prisoners Solidarity Network, designated by Israel as a Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine affiliate.

According to Europe 1, Darmanin accuses Palestine Vaincra of claiming that Muslim people around the world are oppressed by "imperialism and world Zionism" and for "spreading the idea of there being Islamophobia at a global level."

Moreover, the Macron administration is banning Comité Action Palestine for "relaying communiqués from Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Palestine and of Hezbollah and for reporting on their actions," added Europe 1.

On its website, Comité Action Palestine, based in Bordeaux, describes itself as a group that "works for the realisation of the national rights of the Palestinian people, in particular the right to self-determination and the right of return of refugees, that is to say the liberation of the Arab land of Palestine."

An online petition has been created by Palestine Vaincra calling out Darmanin and President Macron for their support to Israeli apartheid and for public support against the criminalisation of the solidarity movement with Palestine.

READ: German broadcaster Deutsche Welle fires 2 more Arab employees

Red Crescent condemns Israeli attacks on its crew

February 25, 2022

A worker of the Red Crescent Society, in Hebron in the occupied West Bank, on March 15, 2020. [HAZEM BADER/AFP via Getty Images]

RED CRESCENT IS THE RED CROSS OF THE ISLAMIC WORLD

February 25, 2022 

The Palestinian Red Crescent Society, yesterday, slammed the Israeli forces for targeting its medical staff, adding that their attacks were becoming "common, specifically in Nablus' southern town of Beita."

The Movement said in a statement that the occupation had "fired live bullets, rubber-coated metal bullets, and tear gas canisters at Palestinian protesters in Beita," adding that the violence had left about "100 casualties."

Among the wounded, the Movement pointed out, was a 19-year-old Alaa Khudair, in whom a bullet penetrated his right forearm while he was treating a wounded journalist.

"Although all the Association's crews and vehicles clearly bear the Red Crescent emblem, these scenes have become common in Beita and in a number of other Palestinian towns and villages, where the Association's crews are deployed to cover the protests that erupt almost daily," the Red Crescent noted.

As Russia Seizes Chernobyl Site, Ukraine’s 15 Nuclear Reactors Pose Unprecedented Risk in War Zone

DEMOCRACY NOW!
FEBRUARY 25, 2022

GUESTS
Linda Pentz Gunter
international specialist at Beyond Nuclear and curator and editor of Beyond Nuclear International.

LINKS
Beyond Nuclear
Image Credit: 3AEC


Russian military activity near Ukraine’s nuclear sites have raised alarm, as triggering any of the volatile reactors around the country could cause nuclear catastrophe for the entire European continent. Russian troops have seized the site of the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster and have reportedly taken staff hostage, raising fear that any disturbance could rerelease deadly radiation that has been sealed off for years. As Ukraine relies on nuclear power for 50% of its electricity, shutting down active nuclear reactors would alleviate the potential for nuclear catastrophe at the cost of leaving many deprived of electricity during the war. “This is the first time that we’ve ever seen a war zone in a location where there are operating nuclear power plants,” says Linda Pentz Gunter, international specialist at Beyond Nuclear. “Any manner of situations could lead to a catastrophic meltdown.”

Transcript
This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.


AMY GOODMAN: This is Democracy Now! I’m Amy Goodman.

Russia seized control of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, the site of the world’s largest nuclear meltdown in 1986. The Ukrainian government warns this could lead to another ecological disaster at the site. While the plant is inactive, vast amounts of radioactive nuclear waste remain. There are already reports the level of radiation in the area has increased, perhaps because Russian military vehicles have driven through the exclusion zone, disturbing contaminated soil. Chernobyl is located 10 miles from Belarus and about 80 miles from Kyiv.

On Thursday, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki talked about the situation at Chernobyl.


PRESS SECRETARY JEN PSAKI: We are outraged by credible reports that Russian soldiers are currently holding staff of the Chernobyl facilities hostage. This unlawful and dangerous hostage taking, which could upend the routine civil service efforts required to maintain and protect the nuclear waste facilities, is obviously incredibly alarming and greatly concerning. We condemn it, and we request their release.

AMY GOODMAN: Many nuclear experts say Chernobyl is just one nuclear risk facing Ukraine, which still operates four nuclear power plants with a total of 15 nuclear reactors. A disaster could occur if any of the reactors were damaged by a military strike, whether accidental or targeted, or if the reactors were forced offline for another reason, like a power outage, a fire, or if workers fled due to a threat of violence. Bloomberg reports this marks the first time a large-scale war has been waged in an area so dependent on nuclear power. Ukraine’s largest nuclear plant is located about 120 miles from the Donbas region, where separatists and the Ukrainian forces have been fighting for years.

We go now to Linda Pentz Gunter. She is an international specialist at the group Beyond Nuclear, which she founded. She recently wrote an article for CounterPunch headlined, “In the Line of Eternal Fire: Ukraine’s Nuclear Reactors.”

Linda, thanks for joining us. Can you talk about the significance of Russia taking hold of the nuclear isolation area of Chernobyl, what this means, and put it into the larger context of nuclear power in Chernobyl — in Ukraine?

LINDA PENTZ GUNTER: Certainly. And it was very moving to hear your Ukrainian guests earlier talk about the human tragedy that’s already unfolding. It can only get unimaginably worse if something were to occur at any of these nuclear sites.

The Chernobyl site, it’s not completely clear what’s happened there, in terms of whether there’s been any additional radioactive releases or the hostage situation. We do have a colleague who worked at the site, who’s no longer there but is still in touch, and what he told me yesterday was that the workforce is still in place, but they’re unable to make decisions and that it is occupied by the Russian forces. So, I don’t know whether that constitutes a hostage situation or just an immobilization of decision-making by the workforce.

But it’s a very, very volatile site. The fuel that’s stored there is quite unstable. In fact, less than a year ago, there was some increased neutron activity, which led to fears that there might be a chain reaction starting or even an explosion. So, to have any kind of conflict raging around the Chernobyl site is of extreme alarm, and more so, I think, the active reactors that you mentioned.

This is the first time that we’ve ever seen a war zone in a location where there are operating nuclear power plants. So that’s really an unprecedented situation. And, as you said, any manner of situations could lead to a catastrophic meltdown, even something as simple as the loss of off-site and then on-site power. We don’t know what’s going to happen to the grid in this situation. And if those reactors lose their off-site power and have to use their backup on-site power, that’s usually something like diesel generators, which obviously don’t last forever and don’t, in fact, always work.

So the whole situation is extremely alarming. Obviously, if we go to any kind of nuclear disaster, we’re adding to the existing humanitarian tragedy the release of potentially a massive amount of radioactivity, which would harm not only the people within Ukraine but would spread, depending on the direction of the wind, to Russia even and Belarus, and obviously to Europe and beyond. So it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to contemplate that anyone would deliberately attack any of these plants. But if they’re in the line of fire, they could take an accidental hit.

AMY GOODMAN: I mean, what about a cyberattack? And again, what about if workers are afraid to come to work, what this could mean?

LINDA PENTZ GUNTER: Yes, a cyberattack, we’ve always thought was probably the most likely course of action, since we know that Russia is skilled in that department already. So, that would — if anything happens like that, which would disable the control of a reactor, that is of equal concern.

The situation with the workforce is that, unfortunately, nuclear power plants, even on a good day, are not walk-away safe. So, therefore, you would absolutely have to maintain a workforce there, no matter what. And that’s asking for a sacrifice. It was actually the sacrifice that was asked of the Fukushima Daiichi workforce by Naoto Kan, the then-prime minister, when TEPCO wanted to evacuate them during that disaster. They simply cannot leave. But, obviously, we’re all human beings, and the temptation, if you’re in the middle of a war zone, is that you want to flee with your family. And that just isn’t an option for nuclear plant workers.

AMY GOODMAN: Talk about Zaporizhia, the significance and how large this area is and the fact that it’s in the midst of the fighting.

LINDA PENTZ GUNTER: Yes, I mean I looked at a map — I think it was put out by one of the media organizations yesterday to show where there have already been explosions. And one of those indications was dangerously close to Zaporizhia, which is the sixth reactor site. This is the largest power plant in Europe, 5,700-megawatt output — a massive radioactive inventory.

We must remember that in 1986, when Chernobyl exploded, it was a relatively new, single unit. And even that caused a humanitarian disaster, which we’re still seeing the results of today, because when that radioactivity gets out, it doesn’t just dissipate. It lasts forever. It gets into the DNA. We see problems down the generations of human health — birth defects, leukemias, thyroid cancers and so on. So, this is something that will go on forever, if in fact something happens, particularly at Zaporizhia, because it’s such a large site.

AMY GOODMAN: So, can you talk about what needs to happen right now?

LINDA PENTZ GUNTER: Well, as your previous speakers also addressed, we need, obviously, diplomacy and not war. I’m not — that’s not my area of expertise, so I don’t know how that should be guided. Somebody asked me yesterday, “Well, why don’t they just close the nuclear power plants down as a precaution?” Which is what happens, for example, in this country if there’s a major hurricane and it’s coming directly towards a nuclear plant. Sometimes, not always, but they should, they start to power down and close the reactors down. In Ukraine, those 15 reactors are responsible for 50% of the electricity supply. So that’s really not an option right now, when you’re in the middle of potentially a full-scale war, to cut off 50% of your electricity. So they’re in a no-win situation, as we are in the wider picture with this conflict. So we have to hope that clearer heads prevail.

AMY GOODMAN: We have five seconds.

LINDA PENTZ GUNTER: Yes, so we hope that nobody takes the drastic action of either deliberately attacking a nuclear plant or using nuclear weapons.

AMY GOODMAN: Linda Pentz Gunter, I want to thank you for being with us, international specialist at Beyond Nuclear.

And final breaking news: President Biden is nominating federal appeals court Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to be the first Black woman on the U.S. Supreme Court. That announcement is coming today.


Democracy Now! produced with Mike Burke, Renée Feltz, Deena Guzder, Messiah Rhodes, Nermeen Shaikh, María Taracena, Tami Woronoff, Charina Nadura, Sam Alcoff, Camille Baker, Tey-Marie Astudillo, John Hamilton, Robby Karran, Juan Carlos Dávila, Hany Massoud, Mary Conlon. I’m Amy Goodman. Thanks for joining us.

The original content of this program is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License. Please attribute legal copies of this work to democracynow.org. Some of the work(s) that this program incorporates, however, may be separately licensed. For further information or additional permissions, contact us.

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for CHERNOBYL 

DEMOCRACY NOW!

A City Under Siege: Ukrainian Journalist in Kyiv Speaks Out as Russian Troops Move In on Capital

STORY FEBRUARY 25, 2022

GUESTS
Nataliya Gumenyuk
Ukrainian journalist based in Kyiv and founder of the Public Interest Journalism Lab.

LINKS
Nataliya Gumenyuk on Twitter
"I'm in Kyiv and awake at the darkest hour – as Putin's bombs rain down"
Public Interest Journalism Lab

As the Russian army advances on Kyiv and threatens to topple the Ukrainian government, Ukrainian officials have banned men ages 18 to 60 from leaving the country to potentially be drafted into defense forces and have directed residents to use Molotov cocktails against the approaching Russian troops. We get an update from Ukrainian journalist Nataliya Gumenyuk in Kyiv, who says Ukrainians are showing great resilience against a much greater force invading their country. “The Ukrainian army is really deterring this mighty force on its own,” she says.

Transcript
This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.

AMY GOODMAN: Russian troops have entered the northern district of the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv in what is seen as part of a move to encircle the city and topple the Ukrainian government. At least one apartment building in Kyiv was set ablaze today after being hit by a rocket. This comes a day after Russia launched a sweeping attack on Ukraine by land, air and sea. The Ukrainian government is now urging citizens to make Molotov cocktails to help defend the country. Ukrainian forces have also blown up a key bridge north of the city in an attempt to slow the Russian advance.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he’s remaining in the capital despite threats to his life. On Thursday, he vowed to defend Ukraine, while saying he’s open to talks with Russia and discussing the issue of neutrality.


PRESIDENT VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY: [translated] Today I have asked 27 European leaders whether Ukraine will be in NATO. I have asked directly. Everyone is afraid. No one answers. But we are not afraid. We are not afraid of anything. We are not afraid to defend our country. We are not afraid of Russia. We are not afraid to talk to Russia. We are not afraid to talk about anything, about security guarantees for our country. We are not afraid of talking about neutrality. We are not NATO members at the moment, but what guarantees will we get? And most importantly, which countries will give us those guarantees? …


I remain in the capital. My family is also in Ukraine. My children are in Ukraine. My family are not traitors. They are citizens of Ukraine. Where exactly they are, I have no right to say. According to the information we have, the enemy has marked me as target number one, my family as target number two. They want to damage Ukraine politically by destroying the head of state.

AMY GOODMAN: The Ukrainian president also said 137 Ukrainian civilians and military personnel were killed in the opening day of the Russian invasion. Ukraine claims it’s killed as many as 800 Russian soldiers, but there has been no verification of the claim. Russia is claiming it’s destroyed over 115 military facilities in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the United Nations says over 100,000 Ukrainians have been displaced, with thousands fleeing to other European countries. In Washington, President Biden condemned Russia’s invasion.


PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: Putin is the aggressor. Putin chose this war. And now he and his country will bear the consequences.

AMY GOODMAN: During a speech at the White House, Biden announced new sanctions against Russia but stopped short of directly sanctioning Putin or kicking Russia out of the global SWIFT banking system. On Thursday, the Pentagon ordered 7,000 more troops to Germany. NATO is holding emergency talks today about the crisis. In Moscow, Putin told a group of Russian business leaders he had no choice but to attack Ukraine in order to ensure Russia’s security.

This comes as antiwar protesters are rallying around the globe, calling for Russia to halt its invasion. In Russia, authorities arrested 1,800 people calling for peace on Thursday. Most of the arrests occurred in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

We begin the show in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, where we’re joined by the Ukrainian journalist Nataliya Gumenyuk. She just wrote a harrowing piece for The Guardian headlined “I’m in Kyiv and awake at the darkest hour — as Putin’s bombs rain down.” She’s the founder of the Public Interest Journalist Lab. Her work focuses on international security and conflict reporting and human rights. She’s spent a lot of time covering Donbas.

Nataliya, welcome to Democracy Now! Can you describe the situation where you are right now, what the people of Kyiv and Ukraine are facing?

NATALIYA GUMENYUK: So, good to talk to you.

I am in Kyiv, in the capital. I am so far working from my home. I am trying to understand where I’m able to go. A lot of people, they were called to stay in the basement. The Ukrainian underground is quite deep, so people — quite a lot of people spend their nights there. There was a call from the government to stay at home, not to really get out, though hospitals are working. Transportation is free.

And I should probably stress then that, you know, like, what is possible to do to make the civilians’ kind of life normal, we’re fortunate to have cellphones, internet so far, electricity and water. But, of course, it’s developing very fast. There was a saboteur groups in one of the residential areas. We know that the Russian military were killed, that it was stopped. We, of course, follow, you know, videos, photos. I, of course, obviously, as a journalist myself, have a lot of colleagues, have a lot of sources online. A lot could be done. And things are happening all across the country, but it’s clear that there is an attempt to overtake Kyiv. But I’d like to stress then, for more than like 32 hours, the Ukrainian army is really deterring this mighty force on its own.

AMY GOODMAN: Can you talk, Nataliya, about an interview you did — you wrote about this — with a Russian journalist when she called you?

NATALIYA GUMENYUK: Yeah, I have — I’m in touch with a lot of Russian journalists, independent journalists. They are often in a position they’re forbidden to work in their country. So, as there were the first signs of the war, there was a shelling in the capital, as well, and it was clear yesterday night that it started, it’s a full-scale, it’s something unthinkable.

I got the call — I don’t know the person; I know by name, she’s very famous — to ask, like, “What is happening? Like, is it true?” But she started to beg for forgiveness. She started to talk that she begs for forgiveness to what her country does for her, and she feels powerless, as a lot of Russians do, as a lot of Russian liberals. So, I was, like, telling what’s going on. And she asked to compare. You know, like, she asked to compare. And I said, like, “You know, it would be stupid. I mean, I don’t like this comparison.” I think we too often misuse the term of the Second World War, Hitler, you know, in the public speeches, everywhere, as an anecdote. But because she’s Russian, and I’m kind of from — we are both from the post-Soviet space. We grew up in this stories about Second World War. The Hitler attacks started at 4 a.m. in 1941 with bombing here. And it was 5 a.m., and Putin bombed Kyiv. And that’s a reference that all people in post-Soviet space feel very strong. And it’s happening. And it can be, you know, different. And that’s how Ukrainians felt.

And it was very important to — you know, I’m not that emotional person. I’m trying to keep calm. But I think we kind of cried a bit, because of the — you know, like, this tragedy of the moment, because I don’t want it, she don’t want it, our citizens don’t want it, a huge portion of the Russians don’t want it. There is not any other reason rather than madness, rather than hatred of Vladimir Putin to Ukraine, which within the last couple of months, and within the last years, actually, demonstrated 'til the very, very last moment that it's ready to avoid the war, that it’s really — you know, it’s all about the defense. And now we’re living in a very different reality.

AMY GOODMAN: Do you have a sense Kyiv will fall, as early as today or in the next few days?

NATALIYA GUMENYUK: No, my sense is very different, of course. I might be wishful thinking. Actually, now, like, reading to what my colleagues saying, they are in fact very disappointed by the Western kind of tone that it’s a matter of hours. We see that — you know, I cannot independently verify how — you know, like, whether the Ukrainian army, to what extent it was successful, how many there are casualties among the Russian troops. You know, like, the country is big. It’s as big as France. So, none of the media would be capable to verify it. But the resilience which has been shown already by the legit Ukrainian army is really big, because, like, the predictions were — I felt like sometimes it was said, like, “Oh, it’s a matter of hours.” It’s not a matter of hours. I think that Ukraine is way stronger than many people think. But — but, of course, it feels like we are long, and the strength is formidable. So, that’s really different.

And to add, you know, I, by my views — you know, I covered conflict, and I do report them from the humanitarian side. You know, there are journalists who cover war from the military point of view. I’m always with the civilians. I’m always kind of and very much for pro-peace. But at this moment, you just know that in such circumstances, it’s just the legit army in the democratic country where — in a pluralistic society which is trying to hold on. And even though there would be very severe damage — we know, like, the longer it lasts, it also means there would be more damage done to Ukraine, to Ukrainian cities. There would be innocent victims and casualties. But the deterrence is very strong. I feel like very warm. I feel very supported by everybody. I feel like everybody does his or her best. And in particularly, I’m like at core of the civil society. You know, like, my friends and my circle is like super active people, so there were never doubts about what they would do. But I’m looking at like every civilian — like, not every; I don’t want to overdo. But to many, those who we would consider apolitical, those who we would consider that they would just prefer to live their normal life, those who can, they stay in the town. They send their kids and parents. You know, they send their — but they stand here to do something.

AMY GOODMAN: Can you talk about what it is that — how your family is preparing right now, your husband also a journalist? We’re hearing about hundreds of people going into the subways as underground bomb shelters, not knowing what else to do, thousands going over the border — what? — into places like Poland, 100,000 displaced in Ukraine right now, and those numbers, of course, could mount. So, how you both are doing your journalism and also preparing your own family?

NATALIYA GUMENYUK: So, yeah, Ukraine is 40 million. It has a border with Poland. We’re having requests. We’re receiving, like, offers from a lot of people in the western part of the country to host. People have relatives. People are really moving from the areas of like bigger danger. My sister managed to get out of the town, but not far away. I’m trying — I’m kind of exactly considering how it would be possible to kind of bring my mom today to the train. We are like in New York: It’s a megapolis; we don’t all, everybody, own cars. So I don’t drive. I should find a way with the public transportation to do that, because Uber isn’t really working.

With my husband, to be honest, like, probably, that’s a moment when I really do not care what is professional, what is personal. He is a bit, like, too brave. You know, like, he’s a bit careless person. So I’m really worried he went, like, somewhere where it’s really dangerous now. And I kind of — I don’t share. I think he should be, like, a bit more concerned. But I know him. It won’t happen, but so makes me a bit angry. But because I kind of more care — I’m more careful while working outside.

Yeah, I’m trying to understand, like: Should I be here with you, talking but being in my room, or should I go out? Where should I go? It’s all everywhere. Would it have any impact if I go there, if I would tweet, if I would make a broadcast to any foreign station? It would matter, but which moment? For how long we should be in this situation? You know, like, I’ve forgotten to eat for two days now. I understood, like, I have to. I don’t really want. But, like, should I sleep? Should we do it in the shifts? Should I move the table to a different corner of the room, so further from the windows, because, who knows, maybe there would be shelling? At what moment I could leave the house? To what distance? Because we are journalists. And, again, I probably received this question, but I report this conflict. You know, like, that’s my profile. That’s something I have to do. You know, like, these are like — we are like on duty. It’s not our task to leave. We should be the ones who would stay as long as possible.

But I want to convey this message of confidence. Really, like, these talks about like how much will — how many hours it will take. I receive the support from friends, people whom I know, you know, like from even like weird places, like from Mali to Tuvalu. People send support, and I appreciate it. But I think that the trust in the Ukrainian society should be also there — not just support, but the trust that we are really doing something special. And it’s not just for Ukraine. It’s really about the rules of this world.

AMY GOODMAN: Now, Nataliya, the president, who says he is marked as target number one, his family target number two, now says that men can’t leave between the ages of 18 and 60. They can’t leave Ukraine. They’re calling on all people to prepare with Molotov cocktails to face off the Russian army. I’m wondering if you could comment on this? And also, how this compares to — you talk about your husband being brave, but you, too. You’ve been covering Donbas, the eastern region, for a long time. Can you talk about how this compares to that conflict area?

NATALIYA GUMENYUK: OK. So, I don’t really would stress on the Molotov cocktails. There was also the calls for the people to conscript to fight in the territorial defense. And that was just like additional, on top of that. I can’t verify it myself, but I, like, see the photos, and in towns there are lines to the — you know, where males are — and not just men, but women also, are trying to join the army. But, yeah, probably people should be ready for the guerrilla war. So far, it’s always legit.

It’s very different from the conflict in the Donbas. You know, at that time, Russia still pretended to not be there. It was there, but they pretended that, you know, like those separatists they backed, they didn’t have the — you know, they didn’t have, for instance, air force or navy, because those separatists — as if they bought their guns or, like, that Buk missiles rocket which shot the MH17 jet, that they bought it somewhere in the free market. So, there was a limited. It was dangerous, it was bad, but it was limited somehow. It was mainly artillery. Now it’s a full-scale invasion. Russia knows the military targets in Ukraine, thanks to the old Soviet maps. So, like, every single military unit and military — you know, which doesn’t make sense — like, warehouse was attacked. And the border is very long. Also, Belarus joined Russia in this. The Belarus and other neighbor country, with the regime of Lukashenko, is kind of used — it’s used as a theater, as the place.

So, it really could be compared just like of the biggest war since the Second World War with the mighty force which is there. Again, Ukraine is as large as France. And it’s attacked in the huge part of its territory with not limited — you know, like, I think a lot of countries we can refer. I know quite well, you know, Afghanistan or Iraq. But it was still a limited amount of people flying to some different continent, you know, with some targets. There, we have, like, the country, like Russia, one of the biggest in the globe, with one of the mightiest armies, is trying to overtake quite a big country with a huge number of people.

What I still think, like: What are in the minds of those 150,000 Russian soldiers? The Russian war is not popular in Russia. The Russian television, official television, they don’t mention this war. It’s not exist for them. I am puzzled how it could be possible in the modern world, for how long. So, that’s really something quite historical, unfortunately.

AMY GOODMAN: Nataliya Gumenyuk, we want to thank you for being with us. Please be safe. Ukrainian journalist based in Kyiv whose harrowing piece for The Guardian is headlined “I’m in Kyiv and awake at the darkest hour — as Putin’s bombs rain down.” We’ll link to that piece at democracynow.org. She’s the founder of Public Interest Journalist Lab, her work focusing on international security, conflict reporting and human rights, speaking to us from Ukraine’s capital.

When we come back, we’ll speak with a woman who has left Ukraine, a Ukrainian peace activist who just fled, is now in Sharm el-Sheikh. Stay with us.

Ukrainian Peace Activist: My Country Has Become a Battlefield for Major Powers. End the War Now

STORYFEBRUARY 25, 2022

GUESTS
Nina Potarska
coordinator for the Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom in Ukraine.

LINKS
The Women's International League for Peace and Freedom
CodePink's International Emergency Online Rally: No War in Ukraine


As officials in Moscow threaten to replace the democratically elected Ukrainian government and Russian forces appear set to overpower Ukrainian defenses, is this the end of an independent Ukraine? We speak with Ukrainian peace activist Nina Potarska, who fled the country after Russian troops entered Ukraine on Thursday, even as her 11-year-old daughter with COVID-19 had to stay behind. She is participating in CodePink’s international emergency online rally on Saturday to advocate against war and against NATO membership for Ukraine. “I feel that my country now is like a battlefield for all other countries’ ambition,” says Potarska. “We want to be in peace.”

Transcript
This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.


AMY GOODMAN: This is Democracy Now!, The War and Peace Report. I’m Amy Goodman.

As we continue to look at the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we’re also joined by a Ukrainian peace activist who just fled the country earlier this week. Nina Potarska is the coordinator for the Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom in Ukraine. She’s set to speak Saturday as part of an international emergency online rally calling for “No War in Ukraine, No to NATO,” organized by the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, CodePink and others. She is joining us from Egypt.

Nina Potarska, welcome to Democracy Now! Please explain your circumstances. So, you have left Ukraine now, and your child is still in Ukraine?

NINA POTARSKA: Yes. I was able to fly on the last charter planes to Egypt, because there was not any other options. And my daughter was ill with COVID, so it was not possible to take her with me.

AMY GOODMAN: Your daughter has COVID?

NINA POTARSKA: Yes, in the same time.

AMY GOODMAN: How old is she?

NINA POTARSKA: Because, you know — she’s 11. And now, yesterday they left Kyiv, together with her father, and they were on the road near 30 hours. And now they are together with her father walking to Poland border, maybe eight kilometers, because of a lot of cars. And they want to join another part of my family, mother and wife of my brother. So, and the men —

AMY GOODMAN: Between the ages of 18 and 60 can’t?

NINA POTARSKA: Yeah, yeah, men are not allowed to go out, and they are all under the military duty. So, now, immediately now, they try to pass the border. And they’re really nervous because if it’s possible to go by alone to here because she’s 11. And so, it’s a big drama for every family now, because some are trying to escape from Kyiv, because in Kyiv now it’s really hard. Somebody try to reach Poland and spending many hours to get close to the border. And I am really grateful for our Polish friends and colleagues who are helping us in close to the border and helping with the cars, with food, with everything we need. So —

AMY GOODMAN: Nina, I want to thank you for being with us, because I know this is an incredibly difficult time for you. You are both dealing with all of this personally, as well as doing your political work. You’re going to participate with a CodePink online rally tomorrow. And it’s a rally that says “no to war” and as well as “no to NATO.” And I’m wondering if you can talk about your response to the Russian invasion and what you think needs to happen now.

NINA POTARSKA: Yeah. You know, in this conflict, I don’t want to take any party, because it’s like — it’s unbelievable, like it’s a bad movie, because I’m with this conflict from the very beginning, from 2014. And I know how to be in the shelling, under the shelling, from one side and from another side. And, you know, the people — the fear is the same. And it does not mean that which bombs is better, NATO bombs or Russian bombs. And we know that NATO also doing a lot of very terrible things but in other — in different parts of this war. But this time it’s maybe Russia time.

And, of course, now I feel that we are, like, alone, faced with this threat, because, in the one hand, Russia attacked us, and, in the other hand, the Western partners — and you are also our Western partners — like, refuse to do anything. And today we received information that we are like — there are no agreements because of — about [inaudible] shutdown. So, it was like a joke, really. It’s just one that everybody can suggest us. I feel that my country now is like a battlefield for all countries’ ambition: NATO parts and Russia parts. And two imperialistic countries want to divide my country.

And I just want to stress one very simple idea, that this is not movie. We are real people, and we die like real people. And real children cry because of the explosions everywhere. It’s not matter in Ukraine or in Afghanistan or in Syria: We all alive people, and we want to be in peace. And I beg you, stay human and not close the borders, not close this help for civilian population. And third, stop this nightmare for all this war and start this — so, stop this threat each other, because — and cut the stakes, because it’s time to get back a little bit to diplomatic mechanism.

And I really excuse because I am so angry, maybe because I’m so far and I feel that I need just to coordinate and be together with the media, too, because all my colleagues now in stress and help other people just to survive. And all my colleagues have no opportunity to speak aloud. And if our leaders really try to be human, because it’s not time to be strong and not time to be masculine, it’s not time to be so patriarchal, because we are going to hell everywhere. And if it’s really difficult to stay in this human level, ask us to help you, because we can sit together with you and just hold your hand to remind that where is the humanity, because it’s terrible what is going on in this world. I am in touch with a lot of women from all over the world and with women who have suffered from conflict around all of this world. It’s terrible. And I believe two years ago that COVID turned our mind to new reality when we have to care about each other, when strong country need help weak countries. But, no, now it’s like a stupid drama. I’m sorry.

AMY GOODMAN: Well, Nina Potarska, I want to thank you for being with us. All the best to your daughter, 11 years old, on the border with Poland right now with her father. Men can’t leave Ukraine. The Ukrainian government has called on all men 18 to 60 to stay in the country. Nina Potarska is the coordinator for the Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom in Ukraine, set to speak Saturday as part of the international emergency online rally calling for “no war in Ukraine” and “no to NATO,” that is organized by the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, CodePink and others. She was speaking to us from Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt.

Katrina vanden Heuvel on Putin’s “Indefensible” Invasion & Why NATO Is at the Root of Ukraine Crisis

STORYFEBRUARY 25, 2022

GUESTS
Katrina vanden Heuvel
editorial director and publisher of The Nation magazine and columnist for The Washington Post.

LINKS
Katrina vanden Heuvel on Twitter
"Putin's Invasion"


The Nation’s Katrina vanden Heuvel, who has reported on Russia for decades, says many observers were “shocked” that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an invasion of Ukraine, calling it an “indefensible” decision. President Biden ordered strong sanctions on Russia in response, but he has also heeded critics’ warnings not to send troops to Ukraine in order to avoid a world war. Vanden Heuvel says that it’s vital that instead of further military escalation, there be a “diplomatic escalation” to resolve the crisis and end the war.

Transcript
This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.

AMY GOODMAN: As we continue to cover Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we’re joined by Katrina vanden Heuvel, editorial director and publisher of The Nation magazine, columnist for The Washington Post.

Katrina, you’ve reported for decades on Russia. You last joined us a few days ago. On Friday, the situation in Ukraine looks very different. Lay out your response to what you call in your latest piece “Putin’s Invasion.”

KATRINA VANDEN HEUVEL: I will tell you that people who have studied Russia for decades — I think of Ambassador Jack Matlock, who was on your program — were surprised, if not shocked, even by the recognition of the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk republics, but the special military operations which occurred early morning U.S. time on, I believe, Wednesday have really shaken a community which did see, if there was any glimmer of light in all of this madness, an upsurge of diplomacy. And I think the abrupt ending to that has marked an indefensible military operation, which we’ve heard about in very human terms.

NATO is clearly at the root of the crisis. Putin, in his speech, rambling, aggrieved speech the other day, talked about NATO several times. You’ve heard it from your guests. The sadness — and war is a crime, a tragedy and a defeat — is that it wasn’t on offer, the NATO position for Ukraine, and so there’s this delusional quality.

I do think the humanitarian story has to be focused on very clearly. The questions to President Biden at his press conference yesterday, as I understand, it was all about military operations and sanctions. But the displacement of perhaps more millions of people than we discussed is going to be — upend Europe and be very grave with implications.

I want to pick up on one of your — the Ukrainian journalist, who was powerful. It is the case that it is a different moment in Russia. This is not 2014 in Crimea, when the seizure of Crimea led Putin to soar in popularity. This is a different Russia — COVID, economic problems. There’s protests across the country, Amy, as you spoke of, more than 1,500 protests in 50 cities — obviously, Moscow, St. Petersburg, more people. But also very interesting, for example, we’ve talked about Novaya Gazeta, the independent newspaper. It came out yesterday in Russian and in Ukrainian. It is part of a group called Syndicate-100, Reporters Without Borders, and issued a very tough statement. A hundred municipal political figures around the country have protested Putin’s special operations. And there are more. So this is growing. This is not going to boost Putin’s popularity. I don’t want to say “never,” because in the first few days of war, things always happen of boosting quality.

But I do think — and I’ll finish — the momentous implications for our country, for Europe, for Russia, for Ukraine — I mean, you’re looking at the risk of nuclear war; I know you’re going to talk about that — NATO, more U.S. troops on the frontlines perhaps. NATO will soar in, you know, demand for a while. Energy — we’re going to see higher oil and natural gas prices, and there will be a pressure to increase reliance on fossil fuels. What do we do about that in terms of coping with climate change needs, the crisis which we don’t pay enough attention to? And Ukraine and the economy — these sanctions may well have collateral damage in Europe and our country, and that could be — and, of course, renewed militarism. If there’s anything bipartisan at the moment in Washington, D.C., it’s this renewed militarism, adding more weapons, adding more money to the defense budget. My column ends, at TheNation.com: Let’s find a way forward. There has to be — there has to be a way to talk, even on the margins, about conventional force agreements or the international nuclear INF — not today, but let us keep that diplomatic escalation, not military escalation, in mind.

AMY GOODMAN: The Intercept’s Ken Klippenstein reported Wednesday, Saudi Arabia is working with Russia to drive up gas prices amidst the Ukraine crisis. He interviewed Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institution and former CIA analyst, who said, quote, “Putin and [Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman] have much in common, including murdering their critics at home and abroad, intervening in their neighbors by force and trying to get oil prices as high as possible. … Putin will do MBS a great service if he invades Ukraine and sends oil prices through the roof.”

Meanwhile, The Daily Poster had a report Thursday on how “Biden’s Ukraine Plans Face Wall Street Roadblock” to sanctions aimed at Putin and his oligarchs, and that noted, quote, “inflicting financial pain on Putin and his wealthy cronies could force the Russian government to the negotiating table. But while such a move might help deter further Russian incursions, Biden faces a significant obstacle: corporate lobbyists’ success in shrouding the American finance industry in secrecy, which makes it far easier for Russian oligarchs and their business empires to evade economic sanctions.” Can you comment on this, Katrina?

KATRINA VANDEN HEUVEL: No, this is serious. This is very serious. The price of oil is over $100 a barrel. There’s no question that this is Russia’s, you know, quote, “ace in the hole.” No, I mean, I think this — the one thing I’ll say about the sanctions, the oligarchs — this is an interesting point, because Putin has tried to repatriate their money for years. This may play a role. And I think it’s critical to understand the complicity of a U.S.-European-Saudi corporate structure in enabling the oligarchs to loot, to hide money. That could not happen without — it doesn’t just, you know, happen on its own. So this is a serious issue, and there is great reporting. And Russian media, two or three major papers, have been part of it — you know, Pandora’s Box, the international consortium of investigative journalists.

I will say, however, one thing: It may push Saudi Arabia and Russia together, but I think the larger story is how this may — these events of the last hours may push Russia and China together. I think that’s a big story. They’re not going to be partners. They’re not going to be friends by any measure, but there is a transactional element. As Russia, seeing the Westernizers inside Russia undermined in the last years by different factors, Putin will turn east most likely. And that’s not just to China, but it’s to parts of the world which the NATO-Western crowd doesn’t consider often legitimate, but it’s real. I noticed that China, I believe, is going to buy massive amount of wheat from Russia. And there will be other purchases, not just from China, that will enable Russia, sadly, probably, to overtake the sanctions. But, Amy, the real problem with sanctions, as we know, is sanctions are another form of warfare. And they often — and I’ve seen this over the years — hit ordinary Russians, who then do feel that the U.S. or those sanctioning are the enemy.

AMY GOODMAN: Well, I want to thank you so much, Katrina vanden Heuvel, editorial director and publisher of The Nation magazine. We’ll link to your latest piece in The Nation, “Putin’s Invasion.”

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RT news channel in spotlight in UK over pro-Russia slant on Ukraine crisis

Calls for channel that is describing invasion as ‘special military operation’ to have licence revoked

Still from an RT broadcast as Russian troops invaded Ukraine. Photograph: RT


Jim Waterson Media editor
THE GUARDIAN

Fri 25 Feb 2022

As Russian troops pushed into Ukraine on Thursday, viewers of the RT news channel learned a new vocabulary.

Rather than an invasion, the Russian actions were described on air as a “special military operation”. Instead of seizing territory from another nation, viewers were told that troops were trying to “liberate” land from Ukraine on behalf of two Russian-backed breakaway states.

And if there was any doubt about the justification used by Vladimir Putin for his war, then RT’s British presenter Rory Suchet – the son of the former ITN journalist John Suchet – explained to viewers that the objective was “to defend the Donbas” in the face of Ukrainian aggression.

The Kremlin-funded rolling news channel, which has long delighted in its own pariah status, has again come under intense scrutiny in the UK for its willingness to follow the narrative of the Russian government. The Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer, demanded RT’s broadcast licence be revoked, telling the House of Commons the organisation once known as Russia Today was Putin’s “personal propaganda tool”. He added: “I can see no reason why it should be allowed to continue to broadcast in this country.”

However, this has also raised concerns about opening up a tit-for-tat media expulsion battle with Russia, which last year kicked out the BBC’s Russia correspondent Sarah Rainsford.

“There is too much focus on the television channel – its impact is minimal,” said Prof Stephen Hutchings of the University of Manchester, who is writing a book on Russian media that focuses on RT. “The television channel almost has symbolic value. They can’t claim to be an international broadcaster on a par with CNN and BBC without a television channel. But really their most impactful output is online and on social media and YouTube.”

The media regulator, Ofcom, which in extreme circumstances can revoke the licences of television channels, is actively monitoring RT’s output for potential breaches of the broadcasting code. But there is no ban on partisan current affairs broadcasting in the UK, as long viewers are also exposed to some alternative viewpoints – the same rule that allows a channel such as GB News to broadcast with a rightwing slant.

The Ofcom chief executive, Melanie Dawes, made clear this week that while RT could not broadcast “one-sided propaganda” on Ukraine, it was “acceptable for broadcasters to present issues from a particular perspective provided that alternative views and opinions are also represented”.

It was RT’s failure to meet this standard in its coverage of the Salisbury poisonings that led to RT being fined £200,000 by Ofcom in 2019 – but deciding where to draw the line is an art rather than a science. The regulator also takes into account viewer expectations of a channel when considering how to enforce its rules – essentially making the assumption that if you are watching RT then you are expecting to see a strong pro-Russian viewpoint reflected in its coverage.

There are also bigger forces at play. The expectation is that if RT is taken off air in the UK, then the BBC’s Russian services will be quickly binned by the Kremlin – the same fate that befell the German public broadcaster Deutsche Welle when the German media regulator took RT off air earlier this month. In any eventuality, there would be nothing to stop RT continuing to produce online content for a British audience, free from regulation, while claiming to have been silenced.

This has led to BBC sources raising concerns that removing RT’s broadcast licence would be unhelpful, given how few viewers RT has in the UK. The channel took the unusual decision to pull out of the Barb audience rating system in late 2019. However, RT’s final viewing figures suggested it was only reaching about 79,000 Britons a day and the average viewer watched for less than a minute – giving it an audience comparable with an obscure satellite film channel.

It has increasingly become a pariah outlet that struggles to book mainstream politicians and guests. The former Scottish first minister Alex Salmond, who has hosted a show on RT since 2017, this week said he would stop making the programme “until peace is re-established”.

Hutchings said his research found RT often carried more diverse viewpoints than its critics acknowledged – but that this changed at moments of crisis. “When Russia’s interests are perceived to be at stake everyone comes behind the central approved narrative. A small group of elite media executives meet with the Kremlin on a weekly basis and they agree the broad agenda and then that’s fed down to the head of news who will translate that into a set of narratives.”

He said that while the “Kremlin is determining the narrative” of RT, if Ofcom suspended the channel’s British broadcast licence due to political pressure then it could be counterproductive. “It’s playing the Russian game. We are a society that claims to follow due process.”

Ukraine and the importance of resistance

While Ukrainians may be overwhelmed by the Russian military, this is not the contest that will determine the outcome of this conflict, argues John Raine. It is whether the Russians can be made to pay a visible and material cost for territorial expansion through effective, armed resistance.


25th February 2022

Speculation on the course of the conflict in Ukraine may not be as valuable as an acknowledgement of what has happened so far. In short, the campaign about which the United States, the United Kingdom and others long warned has unfolded; and as predicted. It is on a known trajectory. To stall and reverse that trajectory, more will be required than sanctions. Ukrainian resistance will be vital.

Undeterred and on trackSo far, Putin has proved susceptible neither to deterrence nor to the strategic logic that many hoped would prevent him from embarking on such a flagrant act of aggression. But more importantly, he has situated his move against Ukraine within a menacing narrative of ‘rolling back NATO’. He has acted aggressively against a neighbouring nation as the first step in a strategy of expansion and restoration of the Soviet dominium. That raises the stakes beyond the fate of Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Putin has had reasons to be confident. He has spent decades modernising the Russian armed forces, redesigning and reconfiguring them for this type of campaign, then testing and tempering systems, men and equipment in combat in Syria. Moreover, he faces in Ukraine a country whose military capabilities are both far weaker than his own, and based largely on familiar and easily countered Russian equipment. He has also, and crucially, received a clear indication from Western nations that they will not deploy militarily inside Ukraine. He has been constantly reminded that the West will be bound, for political reasons, to sanctions as its vector of response. Having abandoned ambitions for inclusion and influence from within since 2008, sanctions and exclusion have no purchase on Putin’s strategic calculus. While he is free to choose his weapons, his opponents have only one that does not, in his eyes, represent a risk, let alone a deterrent.

But Putin has risks and vulnerabilitiesPutin’s biggest risk is that he has miscalculated Ukrainian ability to inflict material harm on his armed forces through resistance. In the echo-chamber of the Russian security community, it is likely he has been briefed that a strategy of strike, fix and retire, such as that executed in Georgia, can be applied in Ukraine. In this plan, Ukraine can be broken and subordinated by an overwhelming but brief invasion sufficient to set up a puppet regime. It will not have to be occupied. But a resistance that mauls Russian forces would be deeply damaging to Putin and oblige him to adapt. He may intend to withdraw his forces before this can happen, but an effective, early resistance will force him to leave forces in country to protect a puppet regime. Those forces will in turn present targets. Sustained resistance will draw them into conflicts, low-intensity asymmetric street-to-street fighting, which Putin will be keen to avoid. His superior firepower is less of an advantage unless he is prepared to be dragged into another Grozny. Human casualties are one of the few consequences that he will find difficult to manage at home.

His second risk is that a coalition materialises against Russia that squeezes it ‘de tous azimuts’. The coalition currently hinges around unprecedented levels of unity within the two key multilateral organisations, NATO and the European Union, and support from nations of less or no strategic value to Russia. China holds a large key. Putin will be banking on Xi Jinping to remain neutral if not complicit. While this may be holding Xi will, as the conflict develops, not necessarily remain easy with what Putin does inside Ukraine. His priorities are elsewhere. He will do nothing to damage his preparations for the 20th Communist Party National Congress coming up this year in which he will seek his third term as chairman. Too close an association with an ostracised Russian leader will bring unnecessary risk. The diplomatic task is to convert any Chinese unease into pressure from the East. It is the very large valve that Putin is banking on staying open.

A third risk for Putin is that he loses the initiative in all aspects of his campaign. So far he has succeeded in retaining the initiative militarily, stepping up deployments incrementally according to his own timeline. He has felt neither shock nor awe, nor material cost so far. The signalling ahead of likely consequences, which was intended to deter, has instead appeared to him to leave him free to make the next move when he chooses. It has also reassured him that the consequences are manageable. An exception has perhaps been in the narrative where the muscular use of intelligence by Washington and allies has won them escalation dominance, at least outside Russia, and forced Moscow on to the back foot. The lesson from this may be that a sudden, sharp and unheralded move against him in other domains, and one not within the familiar repertoire, would place him in the uncomfortable and unfamiliar position of having lost the initiative. He will be forced to adapt, a strength neither he nor his armed forces have cultivated, and he will be denied the strategic momentum he currently enjoys.

In the immediate future, however, it is likely that the current momentum will be sufficient to carry him through the next phases of his plan politically, the seizure of power, and to the geographical limits of his incursion. Neither international opposition nor Ukrainian resistance will mobilise with sufficient speed and effect now to arrest the momentum.

The significance of armed resistance, and the challengesBut while the Ukrainians may be overwhelmed by the Russian military, this is not the contest that will determine this conflict. It is whether the Russians can be made to pay a visible and material cost for territorial expansion through effective, armed resistance. Given NATO’s refusal to deploy force inside Ukraine, only an effective Ukrainian resistance will be able to do this. Supporting and enabling resistance will become critical, but that is not as easy as the rhetoric of support and solidarity that has come from Western leaders. Delivering material support will be a test of political appetites, legal parameters and the specialist capabilities required for fighting through third parties. This is a test that the broad anti-Assad coalition, featuring key NATO players, failed in Syria. Among the lessons to be learned from Syria are the vital importance of supplying weapons systems and of sustained and dedicated effort over time. That will require investing effort and political capital in creating the necessary legal and political frameworks. It will be damaging for Ukraine’s allies to signal support they prove unable to deliver, or to deliver and not stay the course. The US-led coalition walked away from partners in Syria and Kurdistan. It now has an opportunity to restore its global credibility as a partner to allies fighting asymmetric wars.

There is more at stake in Ukraine than there was in Syria. If Ukrainian resistance is successful, it could turn what Putin hopes to be his opening move in the restoration of the wider Soviet dominion, into his last throw as a rogue dictator. It is worth investing in its success.


Author

John Raine
Senior Adviser for Geopolitical Due Diligence

John Raine CMG OBE is researching current and emergent themes that cross geographic boundaries, namely the use of proxies, the use of non-kinetic force as a means of projecting power, and the potential of alternative approaches to conflict resolution. In addition, he is looking at how an understanding of these themes can help governments, armed forces and multinational businesses to mitigate risk.

Background

John joined the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office in 1984, where he served for 33 years. His overseas postings included Kuwait, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Baghdad and Islamabad. In addition to bilateral and multilateral diplomatic work, he worked extensively with UK Armed Forces on deployed operations in Afghanistan and Iraq and, in the UK, on strategy and future capabilities. As a senior member of the national security community he contributed to the design and implementation of UK defence and security strategy, and managed relationships with a wide range of international security partners.

Nine ways the Russo-Ukrainian war might impact Haiti

BY THE HAITIAN TIMES

FEB. 25, 2022

Former Haitian Minister of Foreign Affairs Richard Casimir (r) stands with representatives of the Community of Latin American Countries and Caribbean States in May, 2013, in Moscow. 

Photo from Haiti Libre.

As Russia continues its invasion into Ukraine, questions are being raised about how the conflict will affect the world at large. Here’s a brief list of the ties both countries have to Haiti and how the Russo-Ukrainian war might impact the Caribbean country.

Ties to Russia and Ukraine
A small community of Haitians is in Moscow, comprising mainly students at the University of Peoples’ Friendship, as of 2018. Some Haitians also study at other universities.
In 2019, relations between Haiti and Russia expanded after Bocchit Edmond, then Haiti’s Foreign Minister, announced plans to make visits between Russians and Haitians visa-free to each country. It’s unclear whether these plans were implemented.
In January, Ukraine announced its own visa measures to Haiti, which allows Haitian citizens to stay in Ukraine for 30 days.

Potential impact on Haiti
Russia exports $6.78 million worth of supplies to Haiti, including wheat, plastic pipes and medical instruments. A lack of these items, particularly medical instruments, would continue to hurt Haiti further.
According to economist Enomy Germain, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will increase inflation in Haiti. Haiti is already experiencing high inflation rates, soaring from 19.7% in October of last year to 24.6% a month later.
The conflict would disrupt global supply chain issues, which is already a problem. As of last year, Haiti was suffering from a lack of lumber, automobiles, shoes and bikes, among numerous items.
Food insecurity will also be impacted, according to Germain. Currently, food insecurity is at its highest level ever in Haiti, as 4.4 million people, or over 30% of the population, do not have access to food.
Fuel prices in Haiti have soared in recent months. As the conflict broke, the cost of crude oil surged in several countries. This worldwide trend is expected to greatly impact Haiti, already plagued by fuel scarcity.