Putin Hands Local Company Control of AB InBev’s Russian Unit

Mon, December 30, 2024 

(Bloomberg) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin has given a local company control of Anheuser-Busch InBev’s joint venture, upending the brewer’s plans to exit the country via a deal with a Turkish partner.

All the shares of AB InBev Efes Russia, a tie-up between the Belgian brewer and Anadolu Efes of Turkey, are now under the temporary control of the Vmeste group of companies, a presidential decree published Monday said, without giving any details on Vmeste.

In October, Anadolu Efes and AB InBev agreed to swap stakes in their businesses in Russia and Ukraine. Under the deal, the Turkish brewer would become the sole owner of the Russian business, while AB InBev would acquire the Ukrainian unit. AB InBev had previously wanted to sell control of both operations to Anadolu Efes, but Russia objected to that plan.

After Moscow’s latest intervention, it isn’t clear whether AB InBev will eventually be able to exit the country, as other Western companies have managed to do after running into similar hurdles. Also unclear is the status of the Ukrainian part of the deal, which was conditional on regulatory approvals, including a green light from the Kremlin.

Shares of AB InBev, the world’s largest brewer, fell 1.5%. Anadolu Efes shares closed down 10%.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, western multinationals have either been scrambling to exit the country with minimal writedowns or looking for ways to continue operating there, while protecting their assets, profits and staff.

Russia has made it harder for companies to get out. Those that want to quit now have to accept a 60% haircut on the sale value. Moscow also seized subsidiaries of companies trying to leave, including Carlsberg A/S and Danone.

The Danish brewer and French yogurt maker were eventually able to regain control of their subsidiaries ahead of sales to buyers approved by the Kremlin. Earlier this month, Carlsberg agreed to sell its Russian business unit Baltika Breweries, one day after Putin signed a decree ending government control of the division.

AB InBev, which has taken a $1.1 billion impairment on the asset, will continue to work with its joint-venture partner, a spokesman said.

“We will comprehensively assess this situation and take all necessary steps in response, together with our JV partner,” Anadolu Efes said in a statement late Monday.

--With assistance from Beril Akman.


(Adds Anadolu Efes statement in final paragraph.)

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

UK

Lawyers are the new bankers as £1m salaries become the norm

Maria Ward-Brennan
Tue 31 December 2024 

The City of London

US law firms have started to dominate London’s legal market, bringing with them the aggressive hiring practices that dominate their home market.

Competition between the US law firms and their UK peers has become increasingly intense in recent years as the former continues to invest heavily in the London market.

According to recent data provided by legal recruiter Edwards Gibson, there were 546 partner moves recorded over 2024, up seven per cent on 2023 and 14 per cent on 2022 as US companies poached talent.

In the report, Edwards Gibson stated, “The reason… is in large part due to the continued huge investment bets by US law firms”.

Neel Sachdev, the biggest legal name in deal-making, who was poached by US firm Paul, Weiss from US rival Kirkland & Ellis for $20m in 2023, has pushed Weiss into making some of the most aggressive moves in the market. The private equity lawyer has recruited heavily, attracting 200 lawyers to the London office of Paul, Weiss.

Speaking to City AM, Christopher Clark, director at Definitum Search said: “This year has seen a surge in partner recruitment, mergers and acquisitions have picked up significantly, with litigation and investigations also keeping pace.”

“Law firms have been very proactive with their lateral growth strategies including a pick up in speculative hires,” he added.

Legal Cheek, the UK’s most-read legal website, noted the London offices of top US firms topped its overall profit per equity partner (PEP) tables.

Some equity partners at Kirkland & Ellis have earnings of as much as £6.1m a year, followed by Paul, Weiss at £5.1m.

“Compensation has significantly increased as the war for talent heats up, if you’re not paying top of market you’ll be left behind,” stated Clark.

The legal market is essential for London. TheCityUK revealed earlier this month that in 2023, the legal sector contributed £37bn to the UK economy, equivalent to 1.6 per cent of the real gross value added.
Cash is king

Even at the junior end US firms are flexing the cash. Earlier this year, the newly-qualified (NQ) pay war kicked off again after US firm Quinn Emanuel upped its starting salary for London lawyers to £180,000.

Speaking to City AM as part of Eyes on the Law earlier this month, Ria Karnik, managing director at Major, Lindsey & Africa stated that the salary battle shows no signs of slowing.

“We could potentially be heading into what may turn out to be another busy year, or an even busier one,” she said, adding that if the market follows this trajectory, it will “spark another pay war, which US firms are well positioned to handle—perhaps even better than others,” she explained.

Karnik also said, “It’s become increasingly clear that lawyers are the new bankers”.

In December, lawyers across the US law firms in the City received big bonuses ranging from $10,000 (£8,000) to $15,000 (£12,000) for first-year associates, rising to as much as $90,000 (£72,000) for those in their fifth year.
English lawyers push into US market

While the US firms continue to dominate the UK legal market, some UK firms are looking to the other side of the Atlantic.

The most highly anticipated merger in the legal sector completed back in May, as UK magic circle firm Allen & Overy (A&O) and US firm Shearman & Sterling became one mega-firm.

Earlier this month, London-based law firm DAC Beachcroft announced it was launching into the US with offices planned in New York and Los Angeles.

Magic circle firm Linklaters credited its US expansion into New York and Washington DC for its latest results, which saw its revenue surpass the £2bn mark for the first time.

RIGHT TO LIFE

Zimbabwe abolishes the death penalty

Amnesty International said in a statement welcoming the new act as an "historic moment".

AFP
Tue 31 December 2024 

Zimbabwe's President Emmerson Mnangagwa signed a law that commutes the death sentences of some 60 prisoners (Anton Vaganov) (Anton Vaganov/POOL/AFP)


Zimbabwe officially abolished the death penalty Tuesday after President Emmerson Mnangagwa signed into law an act that will commute to jail time the sentences of about 60 prisoners on death row.

There has been a moratorium on executions in the southern African country since 2005 although courts have continued to hand down the death sentence for crimes including murder, treason and terrorism.

The Death Penalty Abolition Act, published in Government Gazette Tuesday, says courts can no longer deliver a sentence of capital punishment for any offence and any existing death sentences would need to be commuted to jail time.

However, one provision says the suspension of the death penalty may be lifted during a state of emergency.

At least 59 people were known to be under a death sentence in Zimbabwe at the end of 2023, Amnesty International said in a statement welcoming the new act as an "historic moment".

"We urge the authorities to now swiftly move to a full abolition of the death penalty by removing the clause included in the amendments to the Bill allowing for the use of the death penalty for the duration of any state of public emergency," the international rights group said.

The local The Herald newspaper reported in February that there were 63 death row inmates who would likely have to return to court for resentencing once the death penalty was scrapped.

Twenty-four countries across sub-Saharan Africa have abolished the death penalty for all crimes while two additional countries have abolished it for ordinary crimes only, Amnesty said.

Mnangagwa has been a vocal opponent of capital punishment since he was sentenced to death in the 1960s for blowing up a train during the guerrilla war for independence. The sentence was later commuted.

Of the 16 countries known to have carried out executions in 2023, only one -- Somalia -- was in sub-Saharan Africa, according to Amnesty.

str-br/phz

How two crew members survived deadly South Korea plane crash

Samuel Montgomery
Tue 31 December 2024 

THE TELEGRAPH

The two surviving flight attendants had reportedly been seated in the rear section of the aircraft that separated in the collision - Yonhap/AFP

Two crew members may have survived the Jeju Air plane crash in South Korea thanks to sitting backwards with a harness on in the safest part of the cabin, according to aviation experts.

The Boeing 737-800 belly-landed and skidded down the runway at Muan International Airport on Sunday before hitting a structure beyond the Tarmac and bursting into flames. Of the 181 on board, 179 were killed.

The two surviving flight attendants, who had reportedly been seated in the rear section of the aircraft that separated in the collision, were rescued from the plane’s tail, which pictures showed ended up upside down.

Lee Jung-hyun, the chief of the Muan fire department, said: “Only the tail part retains a little bit of shape, and the rest of [the plane] looks almost impossible to recognise.”

It follows the survival of two crew members in the tail of a plane that crashed in Kazakhstan last week, killing most of its passengers and crew.

Experts have suggested that the crew members’ positioning within the South Korean aircraft, as well as them probably wearing a four-point harness, may have saved their lives.

Lee Mo, 33, who was in charge of passenger service at the back of the plane according to local media, suffered a fractured left shoulder and head injuries before waking disorientated at the intensive care unit in Ewha Womans University Hospital in Seoul.

He repeatedly asked “what happened?” and “why am I here?”, before recalling wearing his seat belt before the crash, The Korea Times reported.

Ju Woong, the director of Ewha Womans University Hospital, said Lee was “fully able to communicate” and there was “no indication yet of memory loss or such”, but the flight attendant was being kept under special care because of the possibility of full-body paralysis.

Sitting in a rear-facing seat and wearing a safety harness, as shown in this file photo, may have saved the lives of the two cabin crew - Creative Credit/iStockphoto

Another crew member known only by her surname, Koo, 25, was reportedly taken to the Asan Medical Center in Seoul with a scalp laceration, a fractured ankle and abdominal pain.

She reportedly said in her initial statements: “Smoke came out of one of the plane’s engines and then it exploded.”

Officials said that the crash came after the plane was struck by birds at about 9am local time (midnight GMT).

Jay Robert, a former senior cabin crew member for Emirates, said that crew at the rear of a Boeing 737-800 conventionally sit in backward facing seats and wear a harness.

“The 737-800s I have been on all have seats facing backwards at the rear,” he told The Telegraph, adding: “It is a better position for impact and you wear a four-point hardness.

“The airplane usually breaks apart on impact and passengers in the rear tend to have a better chance of survival.”

A police forensics team examines parts of the wreckage of the crash at Muan International Airport - Yonhap/AFP

Shem Malmquist, an air safety and accident investigator, pilot and professor of aeronautics at Florida Institute of Technology, said both the harness and backward facing seats would have improved the chance of survival.

“They definitely would have been wearing harnesses, that would possibly have helped, and if they were sitting backwards that would keep them somewhat safer,” he told The Telegraph.

Mr Malmquist, who has flown Boeing 777s for the best part of 35 years, said that harnesses would not necessarily improve safety in most accidents and so their rollout would depend on return on investment.

“It would be safer but people don’t like to wear the harnesses and of course it is the cost,” he said, adding that airlines would be cautious to accept changes to seats and seat belts for the added weight which would increase fuel consumption.

A report by Naval Aviation News in 1952 suggested passengers in transport planes were 10 times more likely to survive a crash in a backward facing seat, while Richard Snyder, a scientist at the University of Michigan, concluded in a 1983 paper that “data appears to overwhelmingly substantiate that the seated occupant can tolerate much higher crash forces when oriented in the rearward-facing position”.

Mr Malmquist said: “It should be looked at. Nobody is talking about this. There is a lot we can do and it is virtually untapped.”

On Christmas Day, two crew members also survived after an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 went down in Kazakhstan after it was allegedly hit by a Russian ground-to-air missile, killing 38 people.

The Boeing 737-800 belly-landed and skidded down the runway at Muan International Airport on Sunday - Lee Geun-young/via Reuters

Zulfugar Asadov and Aidan Rahimli had been stationed at the back of the plane when the aircraft split, with the tail remaining intact, while the front caught fire.

“In these two crashes, the impact was from the front,” said Mr Robert, adding: “In South Korea, the crew at the back would possibly have been shielded from the explosion.

“I would assume it would have been a bit more protected than everyone else.”

The rear of a commercial aircraft is statistically the safest place in a crash, according to an analysis of 35 years of data by Time magazine in 2015.

The study found those at the rear of a plane had a fatality rate of 32 per cent, which rose 38 per cent at the front and 39 per cent in the middle. The wings of a plane store fuel, which carries a risk of explosion.

Middle seats, which have the benefit of fellow passengers acting as buffers, in the rear had the best outcomes at 28 per cent, compared with the worst faring aisle seats in the middle of the plane at 44 per cent.

Steven Green, a retired Boeing 737-800 pilot from Vermont, said it was “no surprise” that people in the tail have a better chance of surviving because the area is “structurally very strong”.

Mr Green, who flew commercial airlines for over 40 years, said there was a safety argument to be had for rolling out harnesses and backward facing seats to passengers.

“From a safety standpoint, it makes sense,” he told The Telegraph, adding: “The British tried rear-facing seats on Trident [jets] but nobody liked them, it doesn’t feel right.“

UK Women soldiers to get annual £50 sports bra vouchers for first time

IT'S ALSO A WORKPLACE ISSUE

“Our breasts change constantly, through puberty, through pregnancy, through breastfeeding, through age, through menopause, through weight gain, weight loss. They fluctuate in size during our menstrual cycle."

Danielle Sheridan
Tue 31 December 2024


Cleaning rifle on exercise in Belize - Corporal Danielle Dawson, RLC/Army

When Corporal Natasha Day joined the British Army 10 years ago she never thought that her time in service thus far would be defined by her role as a mother.

However, after having her son, Charlie, now five, Cpl Day spearheaded the Defence Breastfeeding Network, which made it easier, more comfortable and crucially more hygienic for breastfeeding Army mums to express milk while at work, allowing them to carry on with their daily duties.

So it was only natural that Cpl Day, 30, a paramedic with 1 Armoured Medical Regiment, would become the face of the Ministry of Defence’s decision to give women an annual £50 allowance to get properly fitted sports bras, as part of their military uniform.

It is the first time that all female service personnel, who make up 11.7 per cent of the UK regular forces, have been granted the allowance, although all female Army recruits have been individually fitted, and issued, free sports bras during basic training since 2019.

It comes after recent research by the Army Recruit Health and Performance Research Team and University of Portsmouth found that more than 85 per cent of new recruits experience breast health problems relating to inadequate breast support and poor bra fitting during basic training.

Female member of The King’s Troop Royal Horse Artillery - Sgt Rob Kane/Army

It forms part of a wider push to boost female recruitment and retention in the military which is facing a recruitment crisis.

In the past year, 16,140 people left the military, while only 10,680 joined.

It follows an announcement in 2021 that female personnel serving abroad would be supplied with tampons and sanitary towels in the way other personal care items such as sun cream and toilet roll were easily available for their male counterparts.

The following year the Ministry of Defence announced that it was rolling out updated combat clothing and body armour to better fit female bodies.

Speaking in an interview with The Telegraph, Cpl Day says the MoD’s recent decision shows that bras are being viewed as an “essential piece” of uniform and not just underwear.

Cpl Day explained how the initiative came about when a friend met someone at the London Marathon Expo selling sports bras for breastfeeding women.

“They got talking about boobs,” Cpl Day said, and naturally the women were sent in her direction.

“This is the work of a multitude of women that have come together to do this,” she said.

“Hopefully with the work that all of these incredible women are doing, they make it better for the next generation.”

Female personnel were encouraged to attend a fitting at a number of sites at barracks to accurately buy the right size.


REME soldier on exercise in Cumbria - Sgt Benjamin Maher, RLC/MoD

The act of holding a fitting in work time was a major plus for working mothers, who Cpl Day said do not have time to squeeze in a bra fitting around all the numerous tasks they are juggling


“I haven’t been fitted for a bra since before I had my baby and my breasts have absolutely changed,” she said.

“I’m not the bra that I’m squeezing myself into. I split my time doing shift work and my army work. I’m a busy mother. My worst nightmare is going into M&S and getting fitted and my five-year-old running off. So I absolutely haven’t been fitted.”

That is until earlier this month, when a bra fitting service came to Tidworth Garrison in Wiltshire.

“I think I am absolutely guilty of being a mum that neglects herself for the benefit of everyone else,” Cpl Day said.

“To have had that done in working time so that I could pop down to the gym, get measured, buy my sports bra and claim it back in the space of an hour, was fantastic.”

Another important aspect of the fitting was being educated on the importance of wearing properly supported bras.

She said: “Our breasts change constantly, through puberty, through pregnancy, through breastfeeding, through age, through menopause, through weight gain, weight loss. They fluctuate in size during our menstrual cycle.

“I know my breasts have changed but I’ve done nothing about it. I’ve done nothing to support myself or to make sure that I’m in the right kit to actually prevent injury.

“People take a smack to the chest in a contact sport and think nothing of it and actually, we need to protect our bodies. And whilst, you know, a sports bra is not a plate of armour, a well fitting sports bra can reduce injury, and that’s so important in the work that we do.”

UK special forces troops face prosecution over alleged war crimes in Syria

Gregor Young
Tue 31 December 2024

The Service Prosecuting Authority (SPA), is considering one case related to one individual and another involving eight

NINE UK special forces troops could be prosecuted over alleged war crimes in Syria, Ministry of Defence (MoD) figures show.

The Service Prosecuting Authority (SPA), is considering one case related to one individual and another involving eight.

The body, the military equivalent of the Crown Prosecution Service, is also considering a case involving another member of the armed forces over their actions in Afghanistan.

It comes after a request for information by The Times newspaper, though the MoD gave no further details on the alleged war crimes.

READ MORE: Vast majority of Scots back ending all arms exports to Israel – new poll

A case may relate to one or more incidents.

Earlier this year, the Daily Mail reported that five serving SAS soldiers were facing a murder investigation over the death of a suspected jihadist in Syria two years ago.

The newspaper said that special forces chiefs believe troops used excessive force and should have arrested the suspect, who was shot dead.

It has been reported that the Royal Military Police is investigating whether the man’s shooting was a war crime.

Soldiers allegedly believed the suspect was wearing a suicide vest and was intent on attacking British troops.

The Daily Mail reported that a primed bomb vest was later found in a nearby building.

Military bosses reportedly sent files to the SPA recommending murder charges against the five soldiers, according to the newspaper.

The report said the soldiers were watching a suspect jihadi compound at night, when suspects allegedly ran from the property shortly before a planned raid.

The newspaper said a jihadist was seen lying motionless behind a bush and he was shot several times at point-blank range.

An MoD spokesperson said: “Our UK personnel are respected worldwide for the highest standards and action will be taken against anyone that fails to meet these standards, including dismissal from service, where appropriate.

“It would be inappropriate to comment further on ongoing investigations.”

Kremlin supporters tout Trump takeover threats as aiding Putin’s expansionist goals

Gustaf Kilander
Tue 31 December 2024 

President-elect Donald Trump has boasted on social media about taking over Greenland, making Canada the 51st state, and wresting control of the Panama Canal.

His expansionist rhetoric has worried allies but elated enemies, with Russians viewing the statements as evidence that Trump isn’t opposed to foreign wars of conquest, as is the Kremlin, despite what he has otherwise stated.

To Russian President Vladimir Putin’s top propagandists, Trump’s statements have revealed that he would blithely invade a country unable to fight back, according to Julia Davis, an observer of Russian media and columnist at The Daily Beast.

The president-elect would expect a victory parade, like after Russia’s 2014 seizure of Crimea from Ukraine, which Trump called “genius” and “savvy.” Putin tried and failed to take the whole of Ukraine in 2022, with Kremlin insiders believing that Trump only disapproved of the war because it grew in length and cost.

The top Kremlin supporters in Russia believe that Trump can be convinced to back Russia’s expansionist goals if Putin gets a chance to influence him. They’re strongly opposed to the notion of negotiating with Trump’s Ukraine envoy, retired Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg. The ultimate scenario for them would be to make the Russian invasion of Ukraine appear legitimate, and the recognition of their territorial requirements.

They view Trump’s statements about Greenland, Canada, and Panama as validating Russia’s current and future acquisitions.

Host Dmitry Kiselyov of Vesti Nedeli, or The Weekly News, used part of his Sunday broadcast to outline American expansionism under Trump.

“Trump isn’t joking. He is determined to expand American territorial possessions. Personally, I am convinced that he will succeed,” said Kiselyov, according to a translation by Davis.

“Trump will grab strategically important parts of the world for America ... What is funny is to see whether anyone in the Old World will try to sanction the United States in response to its territorial expansion. This is when we will find out how principled the lovers of sanctions truly are,” he added.

“Think about it. If Trump gets away with all of this, inspired by his success, he might look at the rest of the globe, focus on vulnerable spots, and keep going. Where will he stop? Doesn’t it mean that others can do the same?” Kiselyov asked.

Pundits on The Evening With Vladimir Solovyov spent most of last Thursday’s broadcast celebrating how the world will change under Trump.

“Trump politely announced that the U.S. will be expanding its borders,” Soloyov pointed out, though many in the U.S. would take issue with “politely.”

Andrey Lugovoy is a member of the State Duma and was involved in the lethal poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko.

He noted on the program: “It feels like we spent the last four years in Biden’s madhouse and now we’re gradually transitioning to Trump’s circus,” though he added that it’s unclear if Trump is “joking” when he speaks about Canada, Greenland, and Panama.

“These are awesome statements! No, he is not joking ... of course he isn’t joking!” Solovyov responded. “Do you think I’m kidding when I say that Finland, Warsaw, the Baltics, Moldova, and Tallinn should come back home? Do you think I’m joking? No! They should all rejoin the Russian Empire. Followed by Alaska, by the way. Give it back.”

The “way he is rationalizing it is tremendous. We should follow his example and quietly take everything back,” he added.

Lugovoy indicated how Trump’s takeover threats should embolden Russia’s violent aggression in the Ukraine. “My friends, Trump’s insane statements show that there should not be any ceasefire. Why would we need a ceasefire when we’re confidently moving forward?” Lugovoy asked.

Solyov added: “By taking Canada, Trump is basically saying, ‘Russians, you can take the Baltics.”

He underscored: “I believe that what Trump is doing benefits us greatly. Trump is totally destroying any illusions that anyone might have still had about the summit of democracies, about respecting the opinions of NATO allies.”

Professor Dmitry Evstafiev argued that “with his approach of geographical enlargement” Trump has “buried the entire collective West. There is no collective West, and it will never be united again.”

Military expert Mikhail Khodaryonok said in the wake of Trump’s statements about Canada, Greenland, and Panama, “we can now consider special military operations as the norm for resolving arguments between countries.”



Kremlin Insiders Reveal How Trump Is Already Secretly Helping Putin

Julia Davis
Mon 30 December 2024 


Photo Illustration by Elizabeth Brockway/The Daily Beast/Getty

President-elect Donald Trump’s social media posts about annexing Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal startled America’s allies and delighted foreign foes. In Russia, the statements were interpreted to mean that Trump isn’t really opposed to foreign wars of conquest after all.

To them, Trump’s tirades revealed that—just like Russian President Vladimir Putin—Trump would be delighted to invade any country that couldn’t fight back. He would expect accolades and a lavish victory parade after seizing foreign territories, just like the fallout from Russia stealing Crimea in 2014.

Trump infamously described the annexation of Crimea as a “genius” and “savvy” move.

Putin tried to repeat the trick and take the rest of Ukraine in three days in 2022, and the Kremlin insiders believe Trump only disapproves of the war because it turned out to be lengthy and costly.

Russia’s premier propagandists and experts already believe that Trump can be persuaded to go along with Moscow’s wish list if Putin gets to influence him, tête-à-tête personally. They are vehemently opposed to the idea of negotiating with retired Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg, Trump’s Ukraine envoy. The dream scenario that they envision would include legitimizing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and recognizing Moscow’s territorial demands.

In the meantime, Trump’s stated intentions towards Greenland, Canada, and Panama are being celebrated as implicit validation for Russia’s current and future land grabs. During Sunday’s broadcast of Vesti Nedeli (The Weekly News), host Dmitry Kiselyov devoted an entire segment to America’s planned expansion under Trump. He pointed out, “Trump isn’t joking. He is determined to expand American territorial possessions. Personally, I am convinced that he will succeed.” Kiselyov predicted, “Trump will grab strategically important parts of the world for America. It isn’t funny. What is funny is to see whether anyone in the Old World will try to sanction the United States in response to its territorial expansion. This is when we will find out how principled the lovers of sanctions truly are.”

Vladimir Putin Dmitry Kiselyov are close. / Mikhail Svetlov / Getty Images

He added, “Think about it. If Trump gets away with all of this, inspired by his success, he might look at the rest of the globe, focus on vulnerable spots, and keep going. Where will he stop? Doesn’t it mean that others can do the same?”

Last Thursday, pundits on the state TV show The Evening With Vladimir Solovyov spent most of the broadcast rejoicing about the way the world will change during Trump’s presidency. Host Vladimir Solovyov said, “Trump politely announced that the U.S. will be expanding its borders.”

State Duma member Andrey Lugovoy, notorious for his involvement in the deadly poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko, noted, “It feels like we spent the last four years in Biden’s madhouse and now we’re gradually transitioning to Trump’s circus.” He speculated that the incoming president will resort to the madman theory as his political strategy, akin to the foreign policy of former U.S. President Richard Nixon. Lugovoy said that no one knows whether Trump is joking when he is making statements about Greenland, Panama, and Canada.

Host Vladimir Solovyov vehemently disagreed. He said, “These are awesome statements! No, he is not joking... of course he isn’t joking! Do you think I’m kidding when I say that Finland, Warsaw, the Baltics, Moldova, and Tallinn should come back home? Do you think I’m joking? No! They should all rejoin the Russian Empire. Followed by Alaska, by the way. Give it back.”

Solovyov added, “The way he is rationalizing it is tremendous. We should follow his example and quietly take everything back.” Echoing the statements of Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, Putin’s top propagandist argued that Russia should now take more than the four Ukrainian regions it has already constitutionally decreed to be Russian.

Vladimir Solovyov is one of Russia's most high-profile news hosts. / OLGA MALTSEVA / AFP via Getty Images

Lugovoy stated, “My friends, Trump’s insane statements show that there should not be any ceasefire. Why would we need a ceasefire when we’re confidently moving forward?”

Solovyov surmised, “I believe that what Trump is doing benefits us greatly. Trump is totally destroying any illusions that anyone might have still had about the summit of democracies, about respecting opinions of NATO allies. It’s like he’s saying, “Who are all of you? You’re all nobodies! I will talk to Putin and Xi Jinping... He is a great guy, an awesome guy!”

Professor Dmitry Evstafiev said, “Trump did something fantastic for Russia and for the whole world... He clearly answered a question, “Leadership or hegemony?” and chose hegemony. With his approach of geographical enlargement, he buried the entire collective West. There is no collective West, and it will never be united again.”

America expert Dmitry Drobnitsky emphasized, “Based on the team Trump is bringing along and who he is himself, it’s clear that he is certainly not a builder of a new world order. He is a destroyer. He will tear down the old world order.” Solovyov added, “By taking Canada, Trump is basically saying, “Russians, you can take the Baltics.””

Military expert Mikhail Khodaryonok noted, “After the statement of President-elect Donald Trump about Canada, Greenland, and Panama, in my opinion, we can now consider special military operations as the norm for resolving arguments between countries. The silence of European leaders clearly confirms this.”

Political scientist Dmitry Kulikov added the era of nation-states is over and that the world will return to the era of empires. He confidently said, “The new world is dawning.” Solovyov agreed, “This is the era of the strong.”


Former Trump adviser finally admits climate change exists to justify threatened Greenland takeover

Gustaf Kilander
Mon 30 December 2024 

Former Trump adviser finally admits climate change exists to justify threatened Greenland takeover


A former national security adviser to Donald Trump has finally acknowledged the existence of climate change, unlike his former boss, to justify a takeover of Greenland, as threatened by the president-elect.

Robert O’Brien appeared on Sunday Morning Futures on Fox News, suggesting that the U.S. could limit its use of the Panama Canal “as the climate gets warmer” and turn instead to opening waterways in the Arctic along Greenland.

“Greenland is a highway from the Arctic all the way to North America, to the United States,” O’Brien said. “It’s strategically very important to the Arctic, which is going to be the critical battleground of the future because as the climate gets warmer, the Arctic is going to be a pathway that maybe cuts down on the usage of the Panama Canal.”

He added: “The Russians and the Chinese are all over the Arctic. Now the Danes ... own Greenland. And they’ve got an obligation to defend Greenland, and so President Trump said ‘If you don’t defend Greenland, we’ll buy it and we’ll defend it, but we’re not going to defend it for free and let you not develop Greenland and not extract the minerals and oil and resources of Greenland.’”

O’Brien went on to say that Denmark is “on the frontlines of the war against Russia and China.”

“They’re like the Baltic states, they’re like Poland because of their vast territory in Greenland,” he argued. “And so they’ve got to defend Greenland, and if they can’t defend it, we’re going to have to, and we’re not gonna do it for free.”

In the weeks after winning the election, Trump has suggested making Canada the 51st U.S. state and he has said he is prepared to take over the Panama Canal.

Trump has also threatened America’s closest neighbors with trade wars, and to take over Greenland, which has been part of the Kingdom of Denmark for 600 years. Trump claimed American ownership of Greenland was an “absolute necessity” for world “security” and “freedom.”. This threats come despite Trump’s vow to end foreign wars and despite that he made “peace through strength” a central part of his campaign.

But his threat is unlikely to lead to any major changes as leader after leader of the areas in question has staunchly rejected Trump’s advances. José Raúl Mulino, the president of Panama, shot back: “Every square meter of the Panama Canal and its adjacent zone belongs to Panama and will remain so.”

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Múte Egede said, “Greenland is ours. We are not for sale and will never be for sale. We must not lose our long struggle for freedom.




Taking back Panama Canal would require war: Former ambassador

Sarah Fortinsky
Mon 30 December 2024 

Former U.S. Ambassador to Panama John Feeley on Sunday said it would take a war for the United States to take back the Panama Canal.

“To attempt to take it back today, I’d like to ask you, go find the MAGA constituency that’s going to support another foreign war because that is what it would take to get the canal back,” Feeley said during an interview on CNN.

President-elect Trump has broached the subject of the U.S. taking back the canal.

A week ago, Trump suggested to a conference of his supporters that the Panama Canal be returned to U.S. control, vowing swift action over the matter after he takes office in less than one month.

“It was given to Panama and to the people of Panama, but it has provisions. You got to treat us fairly, and they haven’t treated us fairly,” Trump said at Turning Point USA’s “American Fest.”

“If the principles, both moral and legal, of this magnanimous gesture of giving are not followed, then we will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to the United States of America in full, quickly and without question,” Trump added.

When an audience member yelled, “Take it back,” Trump replied, “That’s a good idea.”

Feeley, who was ambassador under former President Obama and Trump, said the late President Carter was not alone in thinking it was wise to turn over the canal to Panama in the 1970s, noting even conservative leaders had similar instincts.

“Let’s not forget, Jimmy Carter wasn’t the only one who thought it was a good idea. No one less than Henry Kissinger in 1975 told then-President Nixon, if we don’t return this canal, we’re going to lose in every international forum, and we’re going to have riots all over Latin America,” Feeley said in an interview conducted shortly after Carter died on Sunday.

“Carter simply read correctly the decolonization moment, capitalized on it, and then … he paid the political price for that. But it was a principled move,” Feeley continued.

Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. 

FDA begins testing raw cheese for bird flu

Gustaf Kilander
Tue 31 December 2024 

FDA begins testing raw cheese for bird flu

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has started to test cheese for cases of bird flu.

Federal health officials have started to gather samples of aged raw cow’s milk cheese to test for the infectious disease, the FDA said Monday. The collection of the samples started toward the end of this month and is set to be finished by the end of March. The agency noted that it may extend the collection period if needed.

This comes after the Department of Agriculture issued a federal order earlier in December stating that samples of raw milk would be collected and shared with the FDA to be tested for the disease, according to ABC News.

The FDA has said that it’s set to gather 300 samples of raw cow’s milk cheese which has been aged for at least two months.

The samples will then be examined using a PCR test that searches for genetic material from the virus. The tests are set to be completed within a week of collection, the FDA has said. Samples that are found to have the virus will then be subjected to viability testing, which is conducted by injecting part of the virus into an embryonated egg and looking at whether it grows or multiplies, ABC noted.

Cheese with raw milk is made using unpasteurized milk. The FDA noted that in the U.S., raw milk cheese is allowed but it has to be aged for at least 60 days to lessen the risk of pathogens.

The FDA said that positive samples for viable viruses will be "evaluated on a case-by-case basis,” and that the agency may impose measures "such as a recall, follow-up inspection or other possible responses to protect public health."

Previously, the FDA has shared warnings regarding drinking raw milk, which is made without pasteurization, the process that removes viruses and bacteria.

A sign for the Food And Drug Administration is seen outside of the headquarters on July 20, 2020 in White Oak, Maryland. The FDA has started to test cheese for bird flu (Getty Images)

The agency views unpasteurized cheeses and other products made using raw milk as “high-risk.”

Previous studies by federal health officials have revealed that pasteurization kills the bird flu virus. About 99 percent of commercial milk produced on American dairy farms adheres to a pasteurization program.

"Because we have limited research and information on whether [highly pathogenic avian influenza] viruses can be transmitted through raw milk or raw milk products, such as cheese, the FDA recommends that industry does not manufacture or sell raw milk or raw/unpasteurized milk cheese products made with raw milk from cows showing symptoms of illness, including those infected with HPAI viruses or exposed to other cows infected with avian influenza viruses," the FDA told ABC.

Pasteurization kills bacteria by heating milk to a specific temperature and has been a practice in the U.S. for over a century.

The first human case of the bird flu in the U.S. was reported in April. Sixty-six human cases had been reported in seven states as of Tuesday, according to data from the CDC. California has the highest number of cases — 36. Nearly all of the cases have been in close contact with infected animals and most of the cases have been mild.

Up to 5 house cats sick after bird flu found in 2nd raw pet food brand: Health officials

YOURI BENADJAOUD
Updated Tue 31 December 2024 


PHOTO: Three influenza A (H5N1/bird flu) virus particles (rod-shaped). Note: Layout incorporates two CDC transmission electron micrographs that have been inverted, repositioned, and colorized by NIAID. Scale has been modified. (CDC and NIAID)

A second brand of raw pet food sold in farmers markets in California has been found to contain bird flu, according to Los Angeles County health officials. One house cat has been confirmed positive with the virus, and the four cats living in the same house are presumed to be sick, as well.

Last week health officials alerted consumers about a separate brand of raw pet food linked to the death of a cat in Oregon.

The most recent cases involve a brand called Monarch Raw Pet Food, LA County officials said in a press release Tuesday.

A list of locations where the raw pet food was sold was listed on the product website.

PHOTO: Three influenza A (H5N1/bird flu) virus particles (rod-shaped). Note: Layout incorporates two CDC transmission electron micrographs that have been inverted, repositioned, and colorized by NIAID. Scale has been modified. (CDC and NIAID)

MORE: FDA begins testing aged raw cow's milk cheese samples nationwide for bird flu

Health officials in L.A. warned against feeding pets raw food following the detection of bird flu in a raw pet food brand last week.

Earlier this month, officials confirmed bird flu in four house cats in another household. They consumed raw milk, became sick and died, officials said.

MORE: Oregon house cat died after eating pet food that tested positive for bird flu

Cats infected with H5 bird flu can develop severe illness that can include neurologic signs, respiratory signs or liver disease that can rapidly lead to death.

There have been no human cases of bird flu associated with house cats, L.A. officials said.

MORE: CDC confirms 1st case of severe bird flu in US

Health officials say the overall risk of H5 bird flu to the public remains low.

Most human cases of bird flu in the U.S. involve people who had direct contact with infected cattle or livestock.

Overall, there have been 66 confirmed cases of bird flu involving humans across 10 states, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. California has the highest number of cases with 37.

Most bird flu cases affecting humans in the U.S. have been mild, and patients have typically recovered after receiving antiviral medication.

Federal health officials have begun testing raw cow's milk cheese and raw milk nationwide to test for bird flu.

'We have no back road': Panic in tiny Kootenay towns as B.C. ferry strike escalates

Kokanee Glacier, right, is pictured shrouded by low cloud above Kootenay Lake north of Nelson, B.C., on Monday Jan. 17, 2011. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck© The Canadian Press

PROCTER, B.C. — A sense of panic is growing in tiny southeast British Columbia communities around Kootenay Lake over fears they will be cut off from their neighbours and jobs by an escalating ferry service labour dispute, says a local businesswoman.

The West Kootenay communities of Harrop, Procter and Glade could see their cable ferry service reduced after a B.C. Labour Relations Board ruling permitted expansion of a strike that has already limited sailings on the major Kootenay Lake routes

For some residents, the only alternative to the cable ferry routes that run a few hundred metres across the narrow lake is an hours-long drive, while other residents fear being cut off completely.

"Everybody's panicked here," said Melinda Foot, co-owner of the Procter General Store.

"It's a five-minute crossing that takes us over to all the rest of our communities, Nelson, Balfour," she said Monday. "The ferry we're taking here is our only exit. We have no back road. We have no logging road. We have nothing over here beyond this tiny little convenience store."

B.C. General Employees' Union workers have been on strike since Nov. 3, seeking wage increases, scheduling adjustments and extended benefits for auxiliary workers from employer Western Pacific Marine.

The labour board on Friday granted the union approval to reduce service of the Harrop-Procter ferry to eight round trips daily and 16 round trips for the Glade ferry, with the decision effective Monday.

Related video: Panic hits tiny Kootenay towns as local ferry strike escalates (cbc.ca)

cbc.ca  Kootenay residents worried as striking ferry workers propose to further restrict service  2:27

The Harrop ferry usually runs on a 24-hour on-demand schedule, while the Glade ferry's regular schedule is 5 a.m. to 2:20 a.m.

Western Pacific Marine says on its website that the ferries will run as usual until Jan. 2. A new schedule for the rest of January "and onwards" will be posted late Tuesday, it says.

"They keep telling us there will be a schedule of eight crossings but they won't tell us what that schedule is," Foot said. "People are in fear of losing their jobs. They're trying to put boats in the water and cross our water in the dark, in January."

About 600 people live in the Harrop-Procter area and about 300 people live in Glade, the labour board ruling said.

The decision to grant the union's application to "adjust" service levels and amend an essential service order for the cable ferries serving Harrop, Procter and Glade will have an impact on residents, but still maintains protection of community health and welfare, said labour board associate chair Andres Barker in the 15-page ruling.

"The amendments to the ESO contained in this decision will no doubt have some effect on the residents who rely on the ferry, and that may include some economic impacts and the inconvenience of planning set departure and arrival times like a typical ferry service despite previously being able to come and go at will," he said.

"However, I am satisfied that, based on the evidence currently before me, the levels established are those necessary or essential to prevent immediate and serious danger to the health, safety, and welfare of the residents of British Columbia."

-- By Dirk Meissner in Victoria

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 30, 2024.

The Canadian Press

Manitoba premier promises help for small businesses, eyes Trump fallout

By The Canadian Press

December 31, 2024 

WINNIPEG — Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew is leaving the door open to financial support for people affected by possible tariffs and other actions that may be taken by United States president-elect Donald Trump.

Kinew is also promising help for small businesses hit by his government's property tax increase.

In a year-end interview with The Canadian Press, Kinew said the provincial government is willing to consider aid if Trump enacts harmful policies after being sworn in on Jan. 20.

Trump's threats include 25 per cent tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico unless the two countries stop illegal border crossings and prevent illicit drugs from entering the U.S.

"If there is a need to help people with economic uncertainty in a post-Jan. 20 Manitoba, I would think that some affordability measures would make sense," Kinew said.


"I don't want to commit to any specific measures, but just to say that we are thinking about what is an affordability tool or maybe a few affordability announcements we could make if there is economic uncertainty for the average family."

Kinew has called on the federal government to respond to Trump's demands for tighter border security and has promised to have Manitoba conservation officers help as extra eyes and ears at the border.

Affordability has been a key issue for Kinew's New Democrats since they won the October 2023 election, although their efforts have, at times, been met with controversy.

They suspended the provincial fuel tax for a year to save motorists money and said it would help reduce grocery prices. Food prices in Manitoba, however, climbed faster than the national average during the tax holiday and led all other provinces in November, Statistics Canada data suggests.

The government promised a one-year freeze on electricity rates in 2025, even as Crown-owned Manitoba Hydro and the provincial government are both in the middle of consecutive deficits.

The government is also revamping the education property tax system as an affordability measure for people in lower-value homes, although the government would rake in more money overall due to increases on businesses, cottages and higher-value homes.

A new flat $1,500 tax credit on primary residences in 2025 is replacing a system of rebates and credits enacted by the former Progressive Conservative government.

As a result, people who own lower-value homes will pay less and owners of higher-value homes will pay more. Commercial property owners, who have been receiving 10 per cent rebates, are not eligible for the new credit.

Kinew is promising some sort of help in the new year for small businesses that are losing their rebates.

"I think some of what we'll probably look at are, again, some of the steps on tax credits and rebates and stuff like that," Kinew said.

"But some of them might also be targeting help for businesses in areas that they've been asking."

Help for security systems might be increased as part of the plan, Kinew said.

The government launched a rebate program in the summer, offering up to $300 for security cameras, motion detectors and other items. Some groups complained that it's a small portion of the cost of securing a business property.

"I think something in that space is interesting to us," Kinew said.

Any new provincial aid may be constrained by the government's ongoing deficits.

The province's recent mid-year fiscal update showed the deficit is running $513 million higher than originally forecast in the budget. The government has promised to balance the budget by 2027.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Dec. 31, 2024.

Steve Lambert, The Canadian Press

Europe Set for End to Five Decades of Russian Gas Via Ukraine

By Anna Shiryaevskaya and Priscila Azevedo Rocha

December 31, 2024

(The Institute for the Study of W)

(Bloomberg) -- Russian gas flows to Europe via Ukraine appear set to stop as time runs out for a last-minute solution before a key transit deal expires, raising the stakes for the continent’s energy security as it draws heavily on reserves.

Benchmark prices jumped to the highest in over a year on Tuesday, as preliminary data for Jan. 1 showed no bookings had been registered for transit on the route — which for five decades has been a key avenue for gas into Europe, even during the nearly three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

If confirmed, the halt will mean a handful of central European countries that have relied on the flows will be forced to source more expensive gas elsewhere, adding to pressure on supplies at a time when the region is already depleting its winter storage at the fastest level in years.

For now, no alternative is in place for the five-year-old transit agreement, despite months of political wrangling. While the shipments across Ukraine account for only about 5% of Europe’s gas needs, the region is still feeling the aftershocks of an energy crisis triggered by the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of its neighbor.

The looming end of the transit deal has highlighted Europe’s continued reliance on Russian gas via pipelines and shipments of liquefied fuel, as well as the cracks in the bloc’s approach to weaning itself off Russian supplies.


European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has set a political objective of phasing out Russian fossil fuels by 2027 in the wake of the invasion, and has said the end of transit will have little impact on regional energy markets. Still, countries like Hungary and particularly Slovakia have waged an increasingly bitter campaign to keep the fuel flowing.

Europe is also facing an increasingly tight global gas market. The front-month contract rounded out the year with a 51% annual gain — the biggest since 2021.

Read: High Gas Prices Spell Tough Start to 2025 for European Consumers

Initial data for Wednesday indicate no orders for gas at the Sudzha intake station on the Russia-Ukraine border. The so-called nominations, which could still change in the coming hours, represent requests by Russia’s Gazprom PJSC to move gas ordered by its customers.

Data from Slovak grid operator Eustream show zero nominations for gas transit through the Velke Kapusany point, a key interconnection on the Slovakia-Ukraine border that has historically been a major route for Russian gas supplies to Europe.

Escalating Dispute

While traders remain on alert for indications that flows could somehow continue, an escalating public dispute between Ukraine and Slovakia has dampened optimism in recent weeks.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy earlier this month rejected any arrangement that would ultimately send money to Russian coffers while the war continues. Meanwhile, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has threatened Ukraine with a possible electricity cutoff, raising questions about broader energy security in the region.

In a last-ditch effort over the weekend, Fico urged the EU to address the looming halt of supplies via Ukraine, saying the economic effect on the bloc would outweigh the impact on Russia. He estimated that European consumers could face as much as €50 billion ($52 billion) in extra gas prices per year and another €70 billion in higher electricity costs.

Slovakia and some other Central European states have favored discounted gas from the east, and in recent months, key companies from the region have raced to build support for an alternative to the Russia-Ukraine deal.

Slovakia has said it can handle the loss of Russian gas, but other supplies would likely be costly to bring into the landlocked nation. Russian gas also used to flow from Slovakia into Austria and the Czech Republic, though the latter two nations no longer buy the fuel directly from Gazprom.


‘Expected Situation’

“The stop of flow via Ukraine on 1 January is the expected situation and the EU is prepared for it,” a European Commission spokesperson told Bloomberg News. The commission, the EU’s executive, has been working with member states for more than a year to prepare for such a scenario, she added.

The bloc has diversified its supplies since 2022, turning increasingly to imports of liquefied natural gas, notably from the US. There are “various options” for regulating gas transit to central and eastern Europe, including through another pipeline route and LNG terminals, the German economy ministry said Tuesday.

Officials from Poland, which assumes the rotating presidency of the EU on Wednesday, said the nation is in close contact with the commission and “ready to coordinate further steps with member states, if needed as from Jan. 1.”

Read: European Gas Faces a Raft of Challenges With Transit Deal Ending

Rows between Moscow and Kyiv have previously disrupted gas shipments to European customers in early January.

In 2009, Russian gas flows via Ukraine to Europe stopped for almost two weeks, with more than 20 nations affected during freezing temperatures, until the two nations signed a gas deal ending their dispute. A shorter disruption occurred in 2006. The expiring agreement, set in 2019, was also a result of last-minute negotiations.

However, the war makes a quick resolution unlikely for now. Russian President Vladimir Putin last week indicated there was no time left to conclude an agreement before the end of the year. Separately, he said a lawsuit from Ukraine’s Naftogaz — alleging that Gazprom hasn’t fully paid for transit services — is another barrier.

Some European nations have also warned against ideas that would brand Gazprom’s fuel as non-Russian. Energy companies in the region have previously floated options such as taking ownership of the fuel when it enters Ukraine, or resorting to a complex swap involving Azerbaijan’s energy company Socar as a mediator.

Russia still supplies gas to nations such as Serbia and Hungary via another pipeline, TurkStream, which bypasses Ukraine. But that link isn’t sufficient to fully compensate for the entire loss of the Ukraine route. Another pathway, across Poland, is now closed. The Nord Stream pipeline linking Germany to Russia was damaged in explosions in 2022, and the newer Nord Stream 2 link has never been authorized by Berlin.

--With assistance from Daryna Krasnolutska and Petra Sorge.

(Updates with additional information throughout.)

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

Can U.S. LNG Exports Really Fill the Gap Left by Russian Gas in Europe?

By ZeroHedge - Dec 26, 2024

The US is already the largest LNG supplier to Europe, and could theoretically replace Russian LNG imports.

Replacing Russian LNG with US LNG could increase shipping costs and European prices.

Europe's decarbonization goals may limit its willingness to make long-term commitments to US LNG.




Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman, published a note to clients outlining five key questions and answers about the US-EU liquefied natural gas trade. This comes just days after President-elect Donald Trump threatened the EU with a barrage of tariffs unless Brussels ramped up purchases of American LNG.

For context, last Friday, Trump wrote on Truth Social:

"I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large-scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!"

Dart told clients that the US is already Europe's largest LNG supplier and a key source of supply growth. She said replacing Russian LNG with US LNG imports could raise shipping costs and European prices to incentivize re-routing cargoes.

She said such a shift would have minimal impact on US LNG export revenues, as total export capacity remains fixed, adding exporters with long-term contracts with proposed US LNG projects would benefit. However, Europe's decarbonization strategy may limit the willingness of European companies to make long-term NatGas commitments with US exporters.

Dart laid out key questions and answers about the US-EU LNG trade that help clients understand that US LNG Gulf exports can "theoretically" replace Russian NatGas flowing into the EU. How much US LNG is exported to Europe?

US LNG exports averaged 91 mt over the past year (Dec23-Nov24), of which 47 mt or 51% were delivered to Europe. US LNG exports to Europe have grown significantly in levels and as a share of total US LNG exports since the European energy crisis in 2022, peaking in 2023 (Exhibit 1).

Are US LNG volumes sold in the spot market or are they contracted?

The vast majority of US LNG sales are under contract. That said, US contracts typically have flexible destination ports, in that the buyer is not obligated to deliver to a particular location. This allows buyers of US LNG to re-sell or re-direct cargoes to higher-paying destinations. This was evident during the European energy crisis, when European gas prices increased sharply relative to the rest of the world. Even as total US LNG exports grew, this worked as an effective incentive for US LNG deliveries to non-European destinations to contract by 41%, while European deliveries increased by 197%[1], as seen in Exhibit 1.What portion of European LNG imports come from the US?

The US has become the single largest source of LNG to Europe, averaging 46% of imports into the region over the past 12 months (Exhibit 2). Most European LNG imports are sourced from Atlantic Basin suppliers to minimize shipping costs. Importantly, the US is also the primary source of likely European LNG import growth, based on long-term LNG contracts signed by European buyers since the start of the Ukraine war. US volumes contracted by European buyers in the period add to just under 16 mtpa, which is more than with any other single supplier globally (Exhibit 3).

Can US LNG replace Russian LNG imports into the EU?

Theoretically, yes. US LNG deliveries to non-EU countries are currently approximately 18 mtpa above the levels observed during the peak of the European energy crisis, suggesting there is enough flexibility in the market to replace Russia's current 17 mtpa of LNG exports to the region. However, such a reallocation of flows might offer little benefit, if any, to Europe or the US. Less optimal routes for LNG deliveries (for example, longer routes for Russian cargoes) would likely lead to higher freight costs. In addition, European import costs might go up in order to motivate the re-route of US cargoes that would have otherwise opted to deliver elsewhere.

Total US LNG exports would also not increase as a result of this reallocation, given that US LNG export capacity would not be impacted in the process.How could Europe support growing US LNG exports?

Additional long-term contracting by European buyers with proposed US LNG projects would be the most impactful measure the EU could take to support higher future US LNG exports, as this would increase the likelihood such contracted liquefaction projects reach a final investment decision (FID). As of now, the forward curve for European gas prices suggests new long-term US LNG export contracts are in the money through at least 2027 (Exhibit 4). That said, Europe's decarbonization goals might limit European companies' appetite for long-term commitments to grow natural gas use. In fact, when we look across all long-term LNG contracts signed since the start of the Ukraine war, European companies are far behind Portfolio player companies and Asia importers (Exhibit 5).




It appears that Goldman believes Trump's 'America First' policy of replacing Russian LNG to Europe with American LNG is "theoretically" possible.

By Zerohedge.com

ECOCIDE

India Keeps Coal Power at Full Throttle

By Julianne Geiger - Dec 27, 2024

India's government extended the mandate for coal-fired plants to run at full capacity until February 28.

India is on track to add a whopping 90 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity by 2032.

India’s growing population and industrial demand have kept coal firmly in the driver’s seat.


India’s commitment to coal remains stronger than ever, and the government’s latest move to extend the mandate for coal-fired plants to run at full capacity until February 28 is proof of that. In a world where renewables may be slowly gaining ground, coal continues to power over 70% of India’s electricity needs.

The mandate, which first kicked in this October, was meant to ensure the country didn’t fall into an energy crunch amid heatwaves and droughts that slashed hydropower generation. Now, its mandate been extended into the new year, keeping the coal-fueled machinery running full throttle for a little while longer.

This isn’t just a short-term ploy.

India is on track to add a whopping 90 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired capacity by 2032, and it’s not slacking off in the meantime. In fact, 2024 marks the second consecutive year of hitting a 4 GW coal capacity installation rate—solid, if not spectacular, given the country’s hefty energy demands. And while the government is pushing hard to increase domestic coal production (surging by 32% in the first half of this fiscal year), it’s still relying on imports to fill in the gaps. In the first quarter of this year, imports ticked up by 0.9%, and the first half saw the country producing nearly 80 million tons of coal from captive and commercial mines.

Despite the push toward cleaner alternatives like wind and solar, India’s growing population and industrial demand have kept coal firmly in the driver’s seat. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted that global coal demand will remain close to the 2024 record-high levels over the next three years, in large part fueled by India and China. India’s power needs are skyrocketing, and coal is still the reliable backbone for maintaining a stable energy grid in the face of unpredictable weather events.


By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

The Fashion Industry's Fossil Fuel Footprint

By Felicity Bradstock - Dec 28, 2024

The fashion industry is heavily reliant on fossil fuels for textile production, contributing significantly to carbon emissions and pollution.

Synthetic fabrics, derived from fossil fuels, dominate the market due to their affordability and desirable properties, but their production is energy-intensive and environmentally damaging.

Despite growing awareness of sustainability concerns, the demand for fast fashion continues to rise, exacerbating the industry's environmental impact.


Several industries continue to rely on oil and gas to power operations and produce their products, using petrochemicals. One industry that is unlikely to move away from fossil fuels any time soon is fashion, which often uses oil derivatives to make materials for clothes, shoes and accessories. Despite the widespread consumer push for sustainability, fast fashion brands have become extremely popular around the globe and are now selling more than ever before, with no sign of slowing.

The fashion industry has been highly reliant on fossil fuels for several decades and while some brands are aiming to reduce their dependence on oil and gas, most are expected to continue using fossil fuels to power operations and produce textiles for decades more to come. By 2019, the fashion industry was producing an estimated 1.7 billion metric tonnes of CO2 per year or 10 percent of all man-made carbon emissions. This figure is expected to grow to almost 2.1 billion tonnes by the end of the decade. It is also the second-largest consumer of the global water supply.

This year, the global apparel market is expected to reach a valuation of $1.79 trillion, and estimates suggest it will grow at a CAGR of 2.65 percent between 2024 and 2029. In terms of individual clothing items, a volume growth of 1.3 percent is expected in 2025 to reach 198.4 billion pieces by 2029.

Currently, most fabrics are produced using fossil fuels, around 63 percent. Synthetic materials are compounds produced using synthetic fibres that originate from fossil-fuel-derived resources, such as crude oil and petrochemicals. Chemicals undergo polymerisation to form elongated, linear chemical chains before being transformed into fibres through a spinning process. The most common synthetic fabrics include polyester, nylon, and acrylic.

There are also semi-synthetic or cellulosic fabrics produced using renewable resources such as wood pulp from trees or bamboo, to produce materials such as viscose, modal, and lyocell. These have become more popular in recent years as brands look to improve their sustainability. Meanwhile, natural textiles are produced using natural fibres that come from living organisms, such as plants and animals, including cotton, wool, and silk.

Over the last half a century, many brands have gradually shifted away from natural fabrics to synthetic alternatives, as they have favourable properties such as being more stretchable, waterproof, and stain resistant. They are typically also cheaper to manufacture. In 2022, polyester contributed around 54 percent of global fibre production. The energy-intensive process of converting plastic fibres into textiles requires high volumes of petroleum and natural gas and emits volatile particulate matter and acids like hydrogen chloride.

Quantity is also a problem. Between 2000 and 2015, clothing consumption doubled, and consumption is speeding up even faster following the launch of “ultra-fast fashion” brands, such as the Chinese company Shein, which launches as many as 1.3 million new products a year, compared to Zara’s 25,000 and H&M’s 20,000. Shein’s revenue grew from a reported $10 billion a year in 2020 to at least $30 billion in 2023, although many speculate the figure is much higher. The shipping, transportation and packaging of clothing also require fossil fuel use and contribute to high levels of greenhouse gas emissions globally.

Microplastics are also a challenge. Synthetic fabrics decompose much slower than natural textiles, contributing to the accumulation of microplastics in oceans. A 2017 International Union for Conservation of Nature estimated that 35 percent of microplastics found in the world’s oceans come from the laundering of synthetic textiles.

This December, the climate group Stand.earth published a report accusing 107 fashion brands of being linked to oil and gas fracking in the Permian Basin in Texas, due to their sourcing of fossil-fuel-derived fibres. The report stated that 57 of these brands have explicit policies to phase out or reduce virgin polyester and several others have green transition policies in place, including Ralph Lauren, Puma, Levis Strauss & Co., H&M, Marks and Spencer, Lululemon, The Gap and Adidas. “As international fashion brands increasingly rely on these materials, the environmental and social toll of fracking becomes a critical concern,” Stand.earth said in a press release.

Synthetic fibres derived from fossil fuels are expected to contribute to 73 percent of global apparel production by 2030, according to a report by the Changing Markets Foundation. These fibres are linked to exacerbated climate change, health risks, and increased waste. Therefore, such widespread use of these materials in the fashion industry is expected to conflict with many brands’ aims to decarbonise operations and produce more sustainable products. A 2021 World Economic Forum report suggested that the fashion industry and related supply chains are the world’s third-largest polluter, a trend that is expected to worsen unless brands can reduce their reliance on oil and gas in the coming years.


By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

Eni Raises Oil and Gas Production Offshore Cote d’Ivoire

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Dec 30, 2024



Italian energy major Eni has started production from the second phase of its oil and gas development Baleine offshore Cote d’Ivoire, boosting output from the field in West Africa.

This weekend, Eni announced the successful start-up of Phase 2 at the Baleine field, which will raise production to 60,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) and 70 million cubic feet of associated gas (equivalent to 2 million cubic meters).

Phase 2 is being developed via the Floating Production, Storage and Offloading Unit (FPSO) Petrojarl Kong which is deployed alongside the Floating Storage and Offloading Unit (FSO) Yamoussoukro for the export of oil. All processed natural gas will supply local energy demand through a connection with the pipeline built during the project’s Phase 1, the Italian company said.

Eni last year launched oil and gas production from the Baleine field, less than two years after the discovery. The Phase 1 development used a refurbished and upgraded FPSO unit capable of handling up to 15,000 barrels per day of oil and around 25 Mscf/d of associated gas.

The Italian major is currently studying the development of Phase 3 at Baleine. If approved and implemented, the third stage would boost the field’s production to 150,000 barrels of oil per day and 200 million cubic feet of associated gas.

This would further consolidate Cote d’Ivoire’s role “as a regional energy hub and strengthening strategic collaboration with the local partner,” Eni said.

Eni has been betting on international oil and gas developments offshore Africa in recent years and has recently strengthened its presence in Cote d’Ivoire.

In November, the Italian firm signed the contracts for the acquisition of four new exploration blocks offshore Cote d’Ivoire with the local Ministry of Mines, Oil and Energy. Under the agreements, Eni will be able to explore the area for up to 9 years.

The new blocks are close to the Calao discovery, which represents a strategic opportunity to create further synergies in the area, Eni says.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com