Sunday, July 02, 2023

Lessons in sustainability, evolution and human adaptation, courtesy of the Holocene

Lessons in sustainability, evolution and human adaptation — courtesy of the Holocene
Botanical remains from El Gigante. Credit: Thomas Harper

The El Gigante rockshelter in western Honduras is among only a handful of archaeological sites in the Americas that contain well-preserved botanical remains spanning the last 11,000 years. Considered one of the most important archaeological sites discovered in Central America in the last 40 years, El Gigante was recently nominated as a UNESCO World Heritage site.

"No other location shows, as clearly as El Gigante," state UNESCO materials about the site's universal value, "the dynamic character of hunter-gatherer societies, and their adaptive way of life in the Central American highlands, and in Mesoamerica broadly during the early and middle Holocene."

Now, anthropologists Douglas Kennett and Amber VanDerwarker of UC Santa Barbara, UCSB postdoc Richard George and colleagues from multiple institutions have excavated and analyzed botanical macrofossils—such as maize cobs, avocado seeds or rinds—from El Gigante using modern technologies. Their results are published in the journal PLOS ONE.

"Our work at El Gigante demonstrates that the early use and management of tree crops like wild avocado and plums by at least 11,000 years ago," Kennett said, "set the stage for the development of later systems of aboriculture that, when combined with field cropping of maize, beans and squash, fueled human population growth, the development of settled agricultural villages and the first urban centers in Mesoamerica after 3,000 years ago."

Lessons in sustainability, evolution and human adaptation — courtesy of the Holocene
The El Gigante rockshelter in western Honduras. Credit: Alejandro Figueroa

The study provides a major update to the chronology of tree and field crop use evident in the El Gigante with 375 , finding that tree fruits and squash appeared early, around 11,000 years ago, with most other field crops appearing later in time—maize around 4,500 years, beans around 2,200 years ago. The initial focus on tree fruits and squash, Kennett noted, is consistent with early coevolutionary partnering with humans as seed dispersers in the wake of megafaunal extinction in Central America.

Tree crops predominated through much of the Holocene, and there was an overall shift to field crops after 4,000 years ago that was largely driven by increased reliance on maize farming.

"The transition to agriculture is one of the most significant transformations of our Earth's environmental and cultural history," Kennett said. "The domestication of plants and animals in multiple independent centers worldwide resulted in a major demographic transition in  that fueled the transition to more intensive forms of agriculture during the last 10,000 years. Agriculture also provided the economic foundation for urbanism and the development of state institutions after 5,000 years ago in many of these same regions."

The botanical materials at El Gigante, remarkably well preserved, reflect the transition from foraging to farming, providing a rare glimpse of early foraging strategies and changes in subsistence.

Unique in its location along the southern periphery of Mesoamerica, and for its lower elevation than the dry caves of central Mexico, the authors note, El Gigante serves as a macrobotanical archive for interactions and the flow of domesticated plants between Mesoamerica, Central America and South America. Broader still, it enables researchers to examine the long term evolutionary and demographic processes involved in the domestication of multiple tree and field crops.

Lessons in sustainability, evolution and human adaptation — courtesy of the Holocene
Archaeological excavation of El Gigante rockshelter. Credit: Tim Scheffler

"The quality of the plant preservation at El Gigante is simply unmatched, giving us a deeper understanding of how ancient Hondurans managed their forests, domesticated a variety of plant species and intensified their cultivation of key resources over millennia," said VanDerwarker. "What seems clear is that practices of forest management and field cultivation were closely linked and evolved in tandem."

And therein, Kennett added, some lessons for modern society can be inferred.

"Our work shows that different types of agricultural systems supported human populations in Central America and that some were more sustainable than others," he said. "Forest management and arboriculture persisted for thousands of years before it was eclipsed in importance by the expansion of maize farming after 4,000 years ago.

"The  provides an archive of human adaptation that should be considered in the context of anthropogenic alteration of our Earth's climate today. These ancient archives could help rural farmers in Central America adapt to changing conditions moving into the future."

More information: Douglas J. Kennett et al, Trans–Holocene Bayesian chronology for tree and field crop use from El Gigante rockshelter, Honduras, PLOS ONE (2023). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0287195


Journal information: PLoS ONE 


Provided by University of California - Santa Barbara Maize from El Gigante Rock Shelter shows early transition to staple crop

Why recycling may not be the answer to the world’s plastic problem


Plastic pollution is acknowledged as a global crisis. Some groups say recycling is not the solution.

By Patty Winsa

Data Reporter
Thu., June 29, 2023

Around the world, plastic waste — everything from bottles and wrappers, parts in our phones and televisions to the foam in our mattresses — is acknowledged as a global crisis, endangering marine life and contaminating our water and food.

More than 170 countries are looking for a solution as part of a UN committee negotiating a legally binding agreement on reducing plastic waste.















 https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-recycling-isnt-the-answer-to-the-plastic-pollution-problemWhy Recycling Isn't the Answer to the Plastic Pollution ... 

Dec 13, 2022 ... This is unfortunately far from the truth. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, only 15% of plastic waste is ...


https://www.euronews.com/2018/04/19/why-recycling-is-not-the-answer-for-fighting-the-plastic-pollution-problem

May 29, 2018 ... Why recycling is not the answer for fighting the plastic pollution problem ... If you want to fight plastic pollution in the oceans it's better to ...


https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2023/05/31/recycling-plastic-waste

May 31, 2023 ... A recent study of one recycling plant found that the plastic recycling process creates microplastics that contaminate the air and water.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/26/friday-briefing-why-recycling-plastic-may-not-be-as-good-for-the-planet-as-we-thought

May 26, 2023 ... In today's newsletter: a new report finds that recycling plastic is not an adequate solution to the pollution crisis. What should we do ...

https://www.lifeunpacked.com/blogs/resources/why-recycling-isnt-the-answer-to-the-global-plastic-problem

We tend to think that what gets recycled can be recycled indefinitely. Unfortunately this is not the case. The material an item is made from will determine ...

https://www.vox.com/down-to-earth/2023/6/7/23743640/plastic-pollution-un-treaty-oceans-waste

Jun 7, 2023 ... Only about 15 percent of plastic waste is collected for recycling worldwide, and of that, about half ends up discarded.

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/24/1131131088/recycling-plastic-is-practically-impossible-and-the-problem-is-getting-worse

Oct 24, 2022 ... A new report from Greenpeace found that people may be putting plastic into recycling bins — but almost none of it is actually being recycled ...

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/single-use-plastic-chemical-recycling-disposal/661141

May 30, 2022 ... Yet another problem is that plastic recycling is simply not economical. Recycled plastic costs more than new plastic because collecting, sorting ...

https://repurpose.global/blog/post/why-is-most-plastic-not-recycled

Did you know that 91 percent of plastic isn't recycled? Learn the factors that prevent higher rates of recycling and why some plastics are not recyclable.

Why the impacts of climate change may make us less likely to reduce emissions



Published: June 30, 2023
THE CONVERSATION

The wildfires raging across Canada’s south-eastern province of Quebec are unprecedented. A warm, dry spring allowed the tinder to accumulate and lightning storms in early June lit the match, dramatically escalating 2023’s fire season.

As the smoke spread south it spawned apocalyptic skies over the north-eastern US and placed over 100 million people under air quality alerts, putting New York City in the top spot of a global league table of cities with the most polluted air.

Canadian scientists warned about the role of climate change in fuelling wildfires in 2019. Climate change may not cause fires, but it does significantly increase the likelihood they will occur and, globally, wildfires are expected to increase by 50% this century.

One might hope, at least, that as these increasingly acute effects of climate change are felt by wealthy, high-emitting countries, people will be persuaded to act with the conviction necessary to avert the climate crisis, which threatens the lives of millions and the livelihoods of billions.

New York City, engulfed by smoke from Canadian wildfires on June 7. 
EPA-EFE/Justin Lane

However, as I argued in a recent paper, the hope underlying this assumption could be misplaced. As the effects of warming are felt more substantially, we may instead vote into power people committed to making the problem worse.

This is because of an overlap between the broader effects of climate change and factors that have aided the rise of nationalist, authoritarian, populist leaders across Europe, the US, Brazil and elsewhere, particularly in recent years.

The broader consequences of climate change


Climate change is widely expected to bring a range of impacts, from the increased frequency and severity of storms, droughts, floods, heatwaves and crop failures to the wider spread of tropical diseases. But it will also bring less obvious problems related to inequality, migration and conflict. Together, these could create a world of deepening inequality and instability, rapid change and perceived threats – an environment in which authoritarian leaders tend to thrive.

Climate change threatens to widen inequalities within and between countries. In fact, evidence suggests that it already has. This is because poorer people are typically more exposed to the effects of climate change and more vulnerable to harm as a result of them.

Poorer countries, and poorer people in wealthy countries, face a vicious cycle in which their economic situation leaves them stuck in the areas most exposed to extreme weather and prevents them from recovering. In contrast, the rich can smokeproof their homes, hire private firefighters, run their air conditioning without worrying about the bill – or simply buy a house elsewhere.

Climate change is also expected to increase migration. Estimates of the number of people expected to migrate in response to climate change are highly uncertain, due to compounding social and political factors, and discussion in the media has sometimes tended towards alarmism and myth.

Although most movement is also expected to occur within countries, there is likely to be a significant increase in people moving from poor to rich countries. By mid-century, a significant number of people in places such as South Asia may be exposed to heat waves that humans simply cannot survive, making migration the only possible escape.

Finally, climate change is expected to heighten the risk of conflict and violence. Wars may break out over basic resources such as water. At a smaller scale, violence and crime could increase. Research has shown that even tweets are more hateful in the heat.
Authoritarian populism

Right-wing politicians have successfully exploited the narrative around these issues which climate change is inflaming: immigration, economic inequality and global insecurity. Their promises to reverse falling living standards for a selection of the public, relieve stress on (underfunded) public services and protect the nation from external threats invariably involve appeals to close borders and scapegoat migrants.

These leaders are also anti-environmentalist. Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Jair Bolsanaro have fetishised traditional industries such as coal mining, abandoned global challenges in favour of national pursuits and are openly sceptical of, or outright deny, human influence on the climate.
Trump promised to build a border wall between the US and Mexico. 
EPA-EFE/Etienne Laurent

The absence of a global consciousness and a willingness to cooperate, which is inherent to this politics, would make maintaining a safe climate almost impossible.
The freedom that’s left

This is a bleak vision. But it’s offered as a warning, not a forecast, and there are good reasons not to be pessimistic.

One reason is that there is some evidence that experiencing extreme weather increases support for climate action. So the effects of climate change may not just push people away from an appropriate political response.

More importantly, climate change doesn’t directly cause things like migration, conflict and violence. Instead, it makes them more likely through interactions with existing social and political issues such as government repression, high unemployment or religious tensions. This is both good news and bad news.

First, the bad news. Researchers suggest that poverty and inequality are more important drivers of conflict and migration than climate change. But these are themselves amplified by climate change. So climate change may play a role in conflict and migration that is not yet understood.

The good news is that these complex interactions between environmental conditions and our political and social life show us that the future is, to a large degree, still ours to decide. In the anthropocene humans have become an agent of planetary change – we can determine the future of the environment. But the environment will not determine ours. Nonetheless, understanding how climate change may indirectly influence politics is crucial to finding a politics appropriate to the challenges we face.

Author
Joel Millward-Hopkins
Postdoctoral Researcher in Sustainability, University of Leeds
Disclosure statement
Joel Millward-Hopkins receives funding from the Leverhulme Trust.



Canadian Pacific Kansas City sees big opportunity from near-shoring. But why not invest in Mexico then?

The Globe and Mail
on July 1, 2023


Canadian Pacific Railway trains sit at the main CP Rail trainyard in Toronto on March 21, 2022.Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. expects that its newly expanded North American rail network will position it well in the years ahead as U.S. companies, once enamoured with Asia, move production closer to their home bases and tap into Mexico’s low-cost labour force.

It’s a trend known as near-shoring, which certainly bolsters the case for investing in the railway. But if the trend lives up to expectations, investors might want to consider skipping the middleman and investing in Mexico instead.

Calgary-based Canadian Pacific CP-T gained its new reach after closing a deal to acquire Kansas City Southern Railway Co. in April. The merger combined North America’s smallest of the big freight haulers and links CP’s existing domestic network to additional lines that extend through Kansas City, Houston and deep into Mexico.

The added heft means that CPKC can serve customers that are moving production facilities back to North America to improve their supply chains and get closer to markets in the United States and Canada. The railway touted these benefits during its investor-day presentations this week, pointing specifically to Mattel Inc., which expanded its toy factory in Monterrey, Mexico, in 2022.

While near-shoring isn’t new, it gained urgency after international shipments were disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic, adding significantly to shipping costs and waiting times. As well, it is a reaction to rising trade tensions between the United States and China, and a general retreat from globalization.

“We believe CP’s timing of KCS acquisition couldn’t have been better,” Konark Gupta, an analyst at Bank of Nova Scotia, said in a note.

“Even Chinese manufacturers are pivoting to Mexico, given the quick access to North American consumers,” Mr. Gupta said.

Morgan Stanley agrees. The financial giant earlier this month noted that 40 per cent of Mexico’s gross domestic product is tied to export manufacturing.

It expects that near-shoring will boost the country’s manufacturing exports to the United States to US$609-billion over the next five years, up from US$455-billion today – a 34-per-cent increase – which will provide a boost to GDP over the coming years.

“A boost in GDP growth would be transformative for domestic stocks,” Fernando Sedano, Morgan Stanley’s Latin America Economist, said in a note.

In other words, if near-shoring is good news for CPKC, it’s great news for Mexico – a market that is accessible to Canadian investors through exchange-traded funds and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), and where stocks trade at valuations that are a fraction of, well, CPKC.

The railway stock has more than doubled over the past five years, rewarding investors who followed Warren Buffett’s approach to rails when his company, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. BRK-A-N, bought Burlington Northern Santa Fe in 2009. That was seen then as a long-term bet on the U.S. economy, and one that is generally immune to global competitive pressures.

But the rails aren’t cheap. CPKC’s shares now trade at 26 times trailing earnings, a valuation that puts the stock well above the price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9 for the blue-chip S&P/TSX 60 Index.

However, the railway delivered a sobering near-term financial outlook this week, reflecting the downturn in shipping volumes. It expects profit growth, excluding unusual gains and losses, in the mid-single digits this year. That’s lower than the 11-per-cent growth that analysts, on average, had been expecting.

Based on recent performance, Mexican stocks aren’t bargains either: The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF EWW-A, which gives investors exposure to 44 stocks, has already rallied 28 per cent so far this year.

But the gains suggest that Mexican stocks may be catching on as a direct bet on near-shoring. They can outperform indirect plays based in Canada or the United States. CPKC’s share price, for example, has risen just 4-per-cent year-to-date.

Even better, Mexican stocks trade at attractive valuations. The average P/E ratio for holdings in the iShares fund is just 10.8 – and investors get a dividend yield of 3 per cent. For access to individual companies, stocks like América Móvil, Fomento Económico Mexicano and Cemex trade in New York as ADRs, which are equity securities that allow investors to bypass foreign exchanges.

For sure, Mexico is an emerging market whose economy can deliver far more thrills and chills than a highly regulated North American railway. But if near-shoring gains momentum and Mexico becomes a clear winner from the trend, it looks like a strong bet.


UK
Disruption expected as train drivers refuse to work overtime

By PA News Agency

Disruption to rail journeys are expected in many parts of the country this week as train drivers refuse to work overtime for six days.


Aslef announced last month that its members will withdraw non-contractual overtime, known as rest-day working, with 16 of the country’s 35 rail operators from Monday July 3 to Saturday July 8.

The action could impact visitors to the first week of the Wimbledon tennis tournament.

Train companies affected are: Avanti West Coast; Chiltern Railways; Cross Country; East Midlands Railway; Greater Anglia; GWR; GTR Great Northern Thameslink; Island Line; LNER; Northern Trains; Southeastern; Southern/Gatwick Express; South Western Railway main line; SWR depot drivers; TransPennine Express; and West Midlands Trains.

It is understood that there have been no negotiations between the union and the rail operators since the action was announced on June 19

.
Members of the drivers’ union Aslef on the picket line at New Street station in Birmingham (Jacob King/PA)


Mick Whelan, Aslef’s general secretary, said at the time: “Once again, we find ourselves with no alternative but to take this action.

“We have continually come to the negotiating table in good faith, seeking to resolve this dispute.

“Sadly, it is clear from the actions of both the train operating companies and the Government that they do not want an end to the dispute.

“Their goals appear to be to continue industrial strife and to do down our industry.

“We don’t want to inconvenience the public.

“We just want to see our members paid fairly during a cost-of-living crisis when inflation is running at above 10%, and to not see our terms and conditions taken away.

“It’s time for the Government and the companies to think again and look for a resolution.”

People heading to Wimbledon could be affected (Zac Goodwin/PA)

A spokesman for the Rail Delivery Group responded: “Aslef’s leadership continues to disrupt customers’ travel plans.

“They rejected a fair and affordable offer without putting it to their members which would take average driver base salaries for a basic salary for a four-day week without overtime from £60,000 to nearly £65,000 by the end of 2023 pay awards.

“Train companies will work hard to minimise the impact of the overtime ban but the impact of Aslef’s action will vary across the 16 train operators and customers are advised to check their travel plans before setting off.

“We ask Aslef to recognise the very real financial challenge the industry is facing and work with us to deliver a better railway with a strong long-term future.”

Rail disruption warning due to six-day train drivers' overtime ban


By Katy Austin BBC
Transport correspondent

Rail passengers are being warned of disruption for the next six days, due to an overtime ban by train drivers in the Aslef union.

Fifteen train companies based in England will be hit from Monday until Saturday.

Many will reduce their service levels, and passengers are being advised to check before they travel.

It is the latest move in Aslef's long-running pay dispute.

Strikes by other rail workers in the RMT union are set to take place later this month.

Most train companies rely on drivers working overtime to run their full schedules.


Among the disruption expected:
South Western Railway says it will run a reduced timetable with some first and last trains cancelled. Its services are likely to be busier than usual, and customers heading to the Wimbledon tennis championships are being advised to allow extra time for their journeys
Northern is advising passengers to expect some services to start later and finish earlier than usual, as well as short-notice cancellations
Great Western Railway expects some short-notice alterations or cancellations, and says its Night Riviera Sleeper service will not run in either direction until Sunday
Chiltern Railways is warning customers only to travel if absolutely essential on Saturday. Its trains will not stop at the station by Wembley Stadium, which is hosting a concert by Blur.

Last month, Aslef members at 10 operators backed further strike action, meaning it could last for another six months if there's no settlement.

The union has already rejected proposals that would have seen pay rise by 4% two years in a row, bringing drivers' average pay to £65,000.

This would have been contingent on changes to working practices, which the employers and government - who dictate what is under discussion in talks - say are needed to cut costs and modernise how the railway runs.

Aslef argues members should not have to sacrifice working conditions in return for a below inflation wage increase.

Aslef does not have any further strikes planned at present -

But workers such as train guards in the RMT union are expected to walk out on 20, 22 and 29 July in their dispute over pay, jobs and working conditions.

It has now lasted over a year. With no resolution in sight, the train companies are preparing to move ahead with plans to close hundreds of ticket offices.

The Rail Delivery Group said only 12% of tickets were now sold at station kiosks.

Its spokesperson said under proposed changes staff would be moved on to concourses to help and advise more customers. They added that employees and the public would be consulted about any changes.

But RMT general secretary Mick Lynch said earlier this week his union would not "meekly sit by and allow thousands of jobs to be sacrificed or see disabled and vulnerable passengers left unable to use the railways as a result".

The union suggested it could take further industrial action over the issue.
The Secret Power of SAG: How 160,000 Actors Can Help Save Hollywood by Forcing Studios to Break Rank

As actors who signed SAG open letter explain themselves, it's clear that radical action can lead to real results.

BY ERIC KOHN
JULY 1, 2023 10:00 AM

Striking Hollywood writers are joined by a protestor holding a "SAG-AFTRA Supports WGA" sign as they walk the picket line outside Universal Studios Hollywood in Los Angeles, California, on June 30, 2023. Hollywood's summer of discontent could dramatically escalate this weekend, with actors ready to join writers in a massive "double strike" that would bring nearly all US film and television productions to a halt. The Screen Actors Guild (SAG-AFTRA) is locked in last-minute negotiations with the likes of Netflix and Disney, with the deadline fast approaching at midnight Friday
 (Photo by Robyn Beck / AFP) 

Kohn’s Corner is a weekly column about the challenges and opportunities of sustaining American film culture.


Suspense hovers around whether SAG-AFTRA could reach a deal with studios this week, as the union has flown past the June 30 expiration of its contract and extended negotiations to July 12. The next few days could determine the future of the business, but the situation only intensified over the past week with an unexpected update.

The last thing that SAG-AFTRA’s 160,000 members needed to see was Fran Drescher’s smiling face. When the SAG president and chief negotiator Duncan Crabtree-Ireland circulated a giddy update June 23 about an impending deal — one without specifics, beyond offering that it would be “seminal” — it didn’t catalyze the reaction they wanted. Rather than see the membership cheer its efforts, the union leaders received an urgent open letter signed by the group’s A-list members.

“We are prepared to strike if it comes to that,” they wrote in a letter signed by over 300 people in fewer than 72 hours, including Jennifer Lawrence, Meryl Streep, and Ben Stiller. “We feel that our wages, our craft, our creative freedom, and the power of our union has been undermined in the last decade. We need to reserve those trajectories… This is not a moment to meet in the middle.”

In other words: Quit mugging for the camera and get to work. SAG members are ready to strike not only to make a point, but also because they know that it could yield results that the current WGA strike can’t do on its own.

“I really think that video was the impetus for the letter,” one actor who signed it, speaking on condition of anonymity, told me this week. “I think everyone’s feeling the heat. We should at least show that we’re willing to go on strike for the leverage. What will the directors direct if there’s nobody to write or act?”

SAG’s decision, whether it’s a strike, a transformative deal that upends the system, or one that sees only modest gains, may impact the next decade or more. The union has the power to rewrite the economics of Hollywood through severe disruption — or, to settle for an outcome that puts them at extreme disadvantage as residuals fade into the streaming ether.

There are genuine concerns around AI, too — how actors can maintain the rights to their likeness, now that technology exists to keep them performing after they die — but most SAG members I know say they’re less invested in those conversations; they want a deal that helps them maintain a stable profession. “A strike will suck, sure,” one prominent actor texted me this week, “but it’s remarkable how many films I’ve had on streamers, and I don’t get a dime for any of it.”

As I asked around this week, the word “existential” came up more than once. Another signatory of the open letter, an actor who has been in studio movies since the ‘80s, wrote me: “It’s at a crisis point. If the deal isn’t good, a lot of people will be forced out of the business. I see it as a national labor crisis, not just about our business. It’s the collision of big tech and oligarchs dismantling equal pay and protections.”

In previous negotiations, SAG has been badly burned. In August 2020, at the height of the pandemic, the SAG-AFTRA healthcare plan suddenly cut out anyone over the age of 65, eliminating thousands of older performers.

“I know actors in their 70s who are retired and make their living off their residuals because they’ve been working for 50 years or more, but they don’t have health insurance anymore,” one actor told me. “I had friends on the negotiating committee who defended themselves by saying, ‘Well, the AMPTP doesn’t want to give us health insurance because they’re bullies!’ Which is completely the case, but I’m sorry, you just can’t let them. You don’t get up from the table until they agree to pay this stuff.”

A strike would put a lot of people out of work, but it also stands a good shot at splintering the studios’ resolve. Consider what happened when the WGA went after agencies for intrusive packaging fees in 2020. Rather than rely on a single negotiating body like the AMPTP, the writers guild had to work through each of the big three talent agencies — WME, CAA and UTA — to arrive at an agreement that eliminated packaging fees. It was a messy, piecemeal operation that left a lot open to interpretation — and agents still seek workarounds that line their pockets. But it happened.

Since we can’t discern the specifics of what studios and actors want, let’s assume that one major disruptive streamer — cough, Netflix — may have less investment in an immediate deal than any other studio.

Apple and Amazon, the biggest companies in the world, could certainly pony up to a new financial reality around residuals that makes the actors happy without feeling destablizing the bottom line. Only Netflix has suggested that it could limp along more or less intact in the midst of a debilitating strike. And it’s true: Netflix can build a pipeline of low-cost unscripted and library content, doubling down on acquisitions, docuseries, and international productions.

Legacy studios aren’t built that way; they were forced into the streaming game to keep up with competition. They need the talent business and don’t want to lose that foothold.

So… maybe other studios could break rank and talk directly to SAG to sort out their needs. The outcome may not please all contingencies, but it would allow for some semblance of forward momentum. A few actors told me they would be happier with this scattered result than fighting against a single entity indifferent to their needs.

“I don’t think Netflix should’ve joined the AMPTP,” a SAG member told me. “They want to influence everyone to do what they’re doing because they’re on top of the world.”

And it could stay that way, no matter what deals come out of the current negotiations. If traditional Hollywood turned its back on the streamer, this cinephile would certainly embrace a new economic reality that forced Netflix to become the preeminent distributor for international storytelling. Buy up all the festival hits. Invest in auteurs worldwide. Everybody wins!

OK, too idealistic — but there are no rules mandating that SAG can only finalize a deal through the AMPTP. The WGA’s negotiating tactics have obscured this reality because its demands remain hard for any studio to get behind, particularly as it pertains to the minimum number of writers they want in a writers room. I would bet more studios want to reach a deal for streaming residuals than the AMPTP as a whole, and eliminating it from the equation would almost certainly yield better results.

There’s no guarantee something like that will happen if SAG goes on strike. However, it’s the kind of possibility that makes a strike feasible if the actors can’t make a good deal now.

Then again, consider the sunniest possibility. Perhaps Drescher and Crabtree-Ireland projected confidence in their video update because real progress is being made. “The Nanny” star might be close to negotiating a deal that sets the acting profession on a positive track for the next decade or more.

Such an outcome could at the very least create a roadmap for the WGA to see a way through its own conundrum in the foreseeable future. Nobody should hold their breath on that front, but one thing is clear: These negotiations will end not with a video, but a vision. If SAG leadership doesn’t provide that, then its membership will have to fill in the gaps.

As usual, I invite feedback to this weekly column: eric@indiewire.com

Last week, I wrote about the changing of the guard at TCM and its perilous situation at WarnerMedia Discovery. Here are a few of the responses I received:

Seems to me that with all the creative people who treasure TCM we should be be able to come up with a way to save it from the every day monetization pressures suffered by all networks. … TCM has been an integral part of the maintaining the history of America through the eyes of film. It’s almost like PBS — and perhaps should be funded in an alternative way where it is not subject to the whims of studio executives who are strictly interested in the bottom line. I see TCM as a cultural treasure. I imagine with the monetary support of directors actors and philanthropists as well as a structure that removes TCM from the competitive market — and perhaps looks at it more as an educational channel — TCM can be saved without being chopped down.—A TCM SUBSCRIBER


Your article is a perfect distillation of what our future needs. You speaking up on TCM’s behalf means the world to all of us.—A CURRENT TCM STAFFER